Fragile Bird Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 My other title idea was Life in the Attic Above the Burning House. But that seemed too negative, we all see some light, don't we? Even though that tunnel is still pretty dark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Update Dec 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 BC 619 723 737 698 689 759 522 AB 1460 1566 1738 1590 1717 1887 1341 SK 302 324 246 274 222 269 194 MB 280 293 447 360 273 241 272 ON 1890 1983 1848 1873 1677 1940 2275 PQ 1728 1842 1713 1898 1994 1620 1741 Atl-4 8 9 18 11 8 7 8 North 9 21 2 2 3 Total 6296 6740 6768 6706 6580 6734 6355 When I saw Ontario's number yesterday, I thought, damn, there we go. Then I read that the number was high because they changed the reporting hours window, adding two and a half hours to the day. Ok, the number will drop tomorrow, I told myself. Nope. Today's number is 2139. Everyone is expecting tighter restrictions soon, as the virus spreads out of town. But, lol, apparently not until January. Get those Christmas presents! But, some good news. I will cautiously put forward the idea that numbers are creeping down everywhere except Ontario and Quebec. If you go to CTV's Tracking every Case page, there are downward curves everywhere else. And we haven't hit 7,000 yet, fingers crossed. Today's numbers for Alberta and BC aren't in yet, so let's hope they don't have big surprises. I wanted to put this in perspective by looking at the US. Yesterday the US had 197,366 new cases and 3,001 deaths v Canada's 6,355 and 106. If they had Canada's numbers, it would be 55,607 and 928 deaths. California had more than 35,000 new cases and 289 deaths. And, thankfully, Poland is back down to Canadian sized new case numbers, but big deaths, 345, because of those huge 25 k numbers they were adding recently. eta: Well, so much for my comment about Poland. I thought I was seeing the end of the day number because of the time difference. They had almost 12,500 cases today and 605 deaths. I heard the PM say we will be getting the additional 200,000 Pfizer vaccine doses rolling in before month end. In addition, apparently we'll get 279,000 Moderna doses as soon as their vaccine is approved. The vaccines would have made a huge impact back in August, when the second wave hadn't started yet. We should have volunteered Canada as the test site. eta: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-every-case-of-covid-19-in-canada-1.4852102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Yeah agreed - some optimism on the west coast now as the BC and AB curves are flattening. We are avoiding anything like exponential growth at this point, I just wish they’d shut things down properly so we can actually see a decrease in numbers. Unfortunately that probably means schools shutting for longer over Christmas, but that’s what I’d do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 Well, we just set a new record today in Ontario, 2,432 cases. Two and a half weeks after the so-called restrictions came in and the number keeps climbing. Is that going to be a wake-up call for the Ford government? Not bloody likely. Let’s face it, the positivity rate is barely over 5%, they’re going to keep businesses open until, I guess, we hit Manitoba’s 14% rate? With 58,178 tests done yesterday, that would be 8,145 cases a day. Ford is rapidly losing all the good will he built up earlier in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 10 hours ago, Fragile Bird said: Well, we just set a new record today in Ontario, 2,432 cases. Two and a half weeks after the so-called restrictions came in and the number keeps climbing. Is that going to be a wake-up call for the Ford government? Not bloody likely. Let’s face it, the positivity rate is barely over 5%, they’re going to keep businesses open until, I guess, we hit Manitoba’s 14% rate? With 58,178 tests done yesterday, that would be 8,145 cases a day. Ford is rapidly losing all the good will he built up earlier in the year. That's crazy. Both the MB situation and the fact that Ford would be OK with us getting to that. We are so close to post-COVID. Just save lives FFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 The number in Ontario today is 2,290, the fourth day in a row we've reported more than 2,000 new cases. There will be an emergency meeting between the Ford team and medical experts. Hopefully that will lead to some stronger restrictions. However, I also need to point out that our positivity rate from yesterday's tests is 3.9%, with 68,246 done. The backlog is 81,000. We always have more tests done as the week progresses. An hour ago I saw an interview with a doctor from Iowa, who was happy to report some of their numbers were down. Their positivity rate is 19.2%. My worry is about the spread of Covid-19 to communities outside of the GTHA area, into the Barries and Kitcheners of the province, and further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Western Canada and the Prairies seem to be sorting themselves out now. Deaths are higher than ever unfortunately, but their caseloads are all in the double-digit decrease region. Ontario is a problem, so Ford's announcement today was a necessary one. Albeit that it was a necessary one weeks or months ago. The province is running 20-40 fatalities / day now, which is over half of the first wave peak. I think sadly that a lot of those deaths would have been avoided if tighter restrictions were in place in, say, October, when the data was already pointing to the current predicament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Update Dec 12Sa 13Su 14Mo 15Tu 16We 17Th 18Fr BC 698 689 759 522 640 673 624 AB 1590 1717 1887 1341 1270 1571 1413 SK 274 222 269 194 169 238 245 MB 360 273 241 272 292 221 350 ON 1873 1677 1940 2275 2139 2432 2290 PQ 1898 1994 1620 1741 1897 1855 1773 Atl-4 11 8 7 8 17 16 12 North 2 2 3 0 1 1 Total 6706 6580 6734 6355 6424 7008 6708 Ontario is going into a real lockdown, finally, for the next month, starting on Boxing Day, which took me by surprise because everyone said it would happen on Christmas Eve. Way to go, let everyone get together on Christmas. How bloody stupid can you be? Our R number, from last week, is 1.02. I am certain that we are in this predicament because like the Tories across the country they decided the economy has to be open. To be fair, people are economically dying out there. I just have to drive around to see all the For Lease signs in the west end of the city. Only the worst hit areas will be locked down for 28 days, Northern Ontario will only get the full lockdown for two weeks, until Jan. 9. Let's hope that the government is sensible enough to extend the lockdown if in fact we don't see an impact. Back to restricted numbers in the grocery and big-box stores. Line-ups in the cold. And finally! Ontario is going to institute testing at the airport. If the federal government doesn't cooperate, Ford is threatening to do roadside checks, pulling over cars as they exit. In the last two weeks, according to a reporter asking questions, we've had flights come in from the UK carrying 54 passengers with Covid-19. Apparently the airport is ready to go, but the federal government is dragging it's feet. Why oh why? And the Ontario government has hotels ready for quarantining passengers. We have flights coming in today from Germany, Mexico, the US and other countries. Ford wants double testing started, a test on landing, 7 days of quarantine, and another test. I do actually think that's a bit of a boogy man, the spread is happening because folks are getting together. But we know from NZ and Australia, catching those cases at the airport is damn important. I need to watch more news before I can comment about the situation across the country. I am really anxious to see how vaccines will be rolled out. The quantities are so low, though, it will only be health care workers and LTC residents for a while. I saw the CDC in the US is suggesting the roll out go to Health care workers and those over 75, and then essential workers. People over 65 are far down the list. This CTV page has a chart that allows you to compare the numbers of three countries. I did Canada, the US and Poland (man, that Polish chart is brutal, but has come down dramatically) and with Sweden. I saw a comment asking what happened to Sweden in another thread, could have sworn I said I lol'd for real, winter came, but either I forgot to post it or it was deleted. The chart shows that Sweden has tracked the US. I was shocked. While looking at Poland I hadn't really looked at other countries. There are links to other graphs on the main page. Lithuania is in the worst shape at the moment with per capita cases. If you scroll down there are more charts from other countries with a discussion about their current situation. https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/covid-19-curves-compare-canada-and-other-key-nations-1.4881500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said: I do actually think that's a bit of a boogy man, the spread is happening because folks are getting together. But we know from NZ and Australia, catching those cases at the airport is damn important Agreed, it is important. But it would have made a lot more sense in the earlier stages of the pandemic before we had people transmitting COVID throughout Ontario. Unfortunately that was when a million or so Canadians were returning, so the testing infrastructure wasn't there. Australia had it easier because they had fewer returnees and not many of them from hotspots like the US or Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 I just saw a report on how successful the screening program at US airports was. I got into fights with people on the internet about what Canada was doing because they kept saying the US was doing more to protect its citizens. Approximately 776,000 travelers to the US had been screened by the time the program ended in September. Nine cases of Covid-19 were detected. Nine. More than a dozen screeners contracted Covid-19 and died, but the number “was consistent with the rate of Covid-19 in their community”. The screeners asked questions about symptoms and took temperatures. They obviously didn’t catch asymptomatic travelers because no testing was done. Nobody did any testing until recently. If you remember, when the screening started there were massive crowds of returning passengers packed into hallways for hours at a time. More Covid probably spread in those halls because for sure there were asymptomatic carriers. On the other hand, as I said in my post above, a reporter mentioned in the last few weeks 54 passengers coming in from the UK through Pearson turned out to have Covid-19. I assume we know this because people were ordered to quarantine for two weeks after landing. I don’t think that temporary testing program was still in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Update Dec 15Tu 16We 17Th 18Fr 19Sa 20Su 21Mo BC 522 640 673 624 652 486 529 AB 1341 1270 1571 1413 1352 1286 1240 SK 194 169 238 245 252 226 206 MB 272 292 221 350 238 229 167 ON 2275 2139 2432 2290 2357 2316 2123 PQ 1741 1897 1855 1773 2038 2146 2108 Atl-4 8 17 16 12 16 2 6 North 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 Total 6355 6424 7008 6708 6905 6691 6382 As I said before, everyone is doing better, except for Ontario and Quebec. Although I was stunned to see pictures of the crowds at Whistler this weekend. BC already had an outbreak at a resort when employees decided to have a party for 25, and soon there were more than 30 Covid cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 Hooray! The Moderna vaccine has been approved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Yeah Canada is definitely surprising on the upside with the speed and size of the vaccine rollout. Hopefully they can vaccinate elderly people ASAP and save as many lives as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 I’m just watching the federal update. By the end of January we will have received 1.2 M doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which is an increase of what we were expecting (more Pfizer made available, I think). So far 240,000 have been distributed, which surprised me. That’s 120,000 people vaccinated by the next day or two. Moderna will deliver 168,000 vaccines by the end of December and deliveries will be made to the North and rural areas immediately. Right now there are 14 centers that have received vaccines (1 in each province except Ontario and Quebec, which have 2). This will increase to 100 locations in December. January will see deliveries of 200,000 vaccines doses a week., ah, 125,000 the first week. 750,000 in the month. They also said the first shot of the Moderna vaccine provides about 80% protection. eta: the Territories will receive their vaccines on Monday. Six Million doses of the two vaccines will be received by the end of March. All Canadians should be vaccinated by the end of September. Eta: the split is 4 M Pfizer, 2M Moderna. Presumably we will also get 6 or even 7 doses from each unit, like they found in the US so far. eta 2: although there were 14 delivery centers, vaccines have already been given at 74 different sites. And, of course, the rumour is J&J will be ready to present their Phase 3 results the first week of January, so we’ll get more vaccine doses from them as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 If 3 million Canadians (just shy of 10% of the population) could be vaccinated by March, that would be pretty incredible. They should in theory be able to reduce the fatality rate to almost zero if the shots are effective and targeted at the right people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerHaHa Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Since all the Covid fatalities in the USA are the fault of Donald J Trump (GRRM's own words, and a familiar sentiment from board members here), shouldn't all the Canadian fatalities be the fault of Justin Trudeau, who acted even later than the Trump administration did? I survived my Covid infection. I'm a stage 3 cancer winner/survivor, I have Systemic Lupus/SLE, and have drug induced type 1 diabetes thanks to my first treatments of prednisone for SLE being overdosed by the hospital. In other words, a combination of issues that made a Covid19 viral infection a pretty dicey thing in terms of percentage of survival. They never could contact trace how I was infected, I only made a single trip out of the house each week, for shopping, and a drug infusion/hospital appt in a pretty sterile environment. Had n95 on constantly, gloves as well, and always scrubbed vigorously with alcohol once these were removed, without having my hands go near my face. Oh, and face shield on top of these precautions as well. They were close to deciding to intubate me. The survival stats after this aren't stellar, as in single percentage points, so I pleaded with them to let me just keep making that conscious decision to breath, in and out with that oxygen, with every single breath, until I passed out, and/or stopped breathing. Then they had my permission to do whatever they wanted. I began improving the next day, and the day after I had very significant improvement. I won't go into the laundry list of treatments I had, but it was pretty typical of all the various drugs you read and hear about right now. I was already taking Plaquenil, 200mg a day, for my SLE/Lupus, as I can't take corticosteroids any longer due to the whole type 1 diabetes/reaction debacle. Anyhow, I hope the vaccines get here and are widely distributed quickly and that boneheads don't decide that not taking them is "their right" and good idea, for any reason. I also hope people follow the guidelines for the rest of this xmas/NY season, and don't risk catching the Chinese lab released virus, as it can be a walk in the park for some, and a fight to the finish for others. In my case, it was probably the 2nd or 3rd shittiest experience I've been through, and that includes eating a vehicle based IED and getting 2nd/3rd degree burns and a life long re appearing migraine, and going through both radiation and chemo, and barfing my guts out for days/weeks during that process. edit - The "wonderful" socialized "free" health care in Canada absolutely sucks still. I took quite a bit of vid footage I took while an inpatient with Covid. I wish I had done so when the hospital in my mother's home town was directly responsible for her early demise due to their "free" incompetent imported doctors and policies. Canadian healthcare is a joke, and a poor one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted December 24, 2020 Author Share Posted December 24, 2020 @SerHaHa Wow, what a last few years (decade?) you’ve had. I wish you a happier holiday season this year and extend hope for a much better 2021. My condolences to you and your family on the death of your mom. Christmas was very hard after my mom died. And still is, 10 years later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Update Dec 20Su 21Mo 22Tu 23We 24Th 25Fr BC 486 529 444 518 582 - AB 1286 1240 1021 1301 1100 - SK 226 206 181 159 154 - MB 229 167 155 201 244 - ON 2316 2123 2202 2408 2447 2159 PQ 2146 2108 2183 2247 2349 - Atl-4 2 6 10 10 12 1 North 0 3 0 2 1 0 Total 6691 6382 6196 6846 6858 2160 I knew this would be problematic because numbers would be all over the place, but I expected the various provinces would come out with late numbers that were split out by them. Unfortunately they weren't. I tried just splitting them up evenly, then said to hell with it and am just reporting the numbers from the last two weeks as they came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Update Dec 25Fr 26Sa 27Su 28Mo 29Tu 30We 31Th BC - - - - 2206 485 683 AB - 2105 459 917 872 1287 1200 SK - - 559 94 114 147 190 MB - - 524 107 133 130 187 ON 2159 2142 2005 1939 2553 2923 3328 PQ - 4492 2291 2265 2381 2511 2819 Atl-4 1 2 5 16 7 4 6 North 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Total 2160 8741 5843 5339 8360 7476 8413 I'd say we need to prepare for hitting 10,000 some time soon, because Ontario and Quebec numbers are not slowing down. I think we're seeing Christmas shopping numbers, and pre-Christmas get-togethers showing up in the numbers. In the meantime, I can't believe that some provinces, especially Ontario, decided to halt giving vaccines for two days over Christmas. How stupid can you be? I see that the territories received their Moderna supply and immediatey started vaccinating. I also can't believe all these bloody politicians who've told us to make sacrifices and then head off to St. Bart's or Bermuda or Hawaii or California. Stupid idiots. And I could not believe Jason Kenney saying the guidelines from the federal government and his own province about not doing any non-essential travel wasn't clear enough to prevent a cabinet miister from going to Hawaii. And then compounding the idiocy by saying it was great to see people supporting Westjet! What the flying f! So to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 53 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: Update Dec 25Fr 26Sa 27Su 28Mo 29Tu 30We 31Th BC - - - - 2206 485 683 AB - 2105 459 917 872 1287 1200 SK - - 559 94 114 147 190 MB - - 524 107 133 130 187 ON 2159 2142 2005 1939 2553 2923 3328 PQ - 4492 2291 2265 2381 2511 2819 Atl-4 1 2 5 16 7 4 6 North 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Total 2160 8741 5843 5339 8360 7476 8413 I'd say we need to prepare for hitting 10,000 some time soon, because Ontario and Quebec numbers are not slowing down. I think we're seeing Christmas shopping numbers, and pre-Christmas get-togethers showing up in the numbers. In the meantime, I can't believe that some provinces, especially Ontario, decided to halt giving vaccines for two days over Christmas. How stupid can you be? I see that the territories received their Moderna supply and immediatey started vaccinating. I also can't believe all these bloody politicians who've told us to make sacrifices and then head off to St. Bart's or Bermuda or Hawaii or California. Stupid idiots. And I could not believe Jason Kenney saying the guidelines from the federal government and his own province about not doing any non-essential travel wasn't clear enough to prevent a cabinet miister from going to Hawaii. And then compounding the idiocy by saying it was great to see people supporting Westjet! What the flying f! So to speak. I’m off to Australia to visit family soon, so I can’t get on my high horse about non-essential travel...however it is a good thing that they’ve introduced a mandatory testing policy prior to arriving in Canada. My peeve though is: where was this policy in the spring or summer? Rushing it through in the middle of the winter season is poor timing. ETA: Totally agree on the vaccine - let's get this done. Canada has already administered 100k. By my count there are around 200k people living in care homes across the country (about 5% of our 5m seniors). Get them vaccinated ASAP!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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