Varys and the Wildfire Plot

[Frey family reunion]

43 minutes ago, MaesterSam said:

I actually suspect that what Varys and Illyrio really want is to improve Essos, the continent they're from and where they can rise as high as they wish. So they need to get rid of those pesky Dothraki. They also don't want any Valyrian claimants interfering with their plans, so they find all the potential exiled heirs and send them back across the sea - ideally right along with the Dothraki. Oh and let them take the sellswords while they're at it - that way Essos can have peace and can keep more of its food for the people of the Free Cities. 

I agree in regards to Illyrio, Varys I'm not so sure about.

A puzzling aspect of their plan was gathering an army of Dothraki.  Especially since many seem to acknowledge tht they would have never agreed to have gotten on ships to travel to Westeros.  So why the Dothraki?

In addition, I  wonder who the friends are that Illyrio owes the debts of affection to.  Is it just Varys.  Or perhaps Varys and Serra?  Or could it include the Red Priests?

After all a Red Priest as big as Illyrio (Moqorro?) was present at Dany's wedding shower.

If it is the Red Priests, then it wouldn't surpise me if Illyrio never actually planned for Viserys and the army to make their way to Westeros.  Instead, my guess is he may have planned on getting them as far as Volantis.  We've seen before where a plotter uses circumstances to try and pit two groups against another for personal gain.  Specifically, Littlefinger used this tactic in pitting the Lannisters against the Starks.  Who needs an army when you can get someone else to do your dirty work for you.

So Illyrio may have planned the same.  After all, it was said that one of Khal Drogo's ambitions was to sack Volantis.  I wonder if Illyrio was planning on a mutually ensured destruction with the Old Blood of Valyria and their Tiger soldiers against a Dothraki horde, with the Red Priests left in a position to pick up the pieces afterwards.

One of the reasons, I suspect this, is Illyrio's current plants involving Dany and her army.  For some reason he positions the Golden Company to meet up with Dany outside the walls of Volantis.  Which is a strange place for a rendez vous, especially since the Triarchs have been preparing to go to war with Dany for disrupting their slave trade.  Dany showing up to join forces with the Golden Company right outside of Volantis would certainly spark a conflict.

And it just so happens that another enemy of the Triarchs are the Red Priests, whom the Triarchs are allegedly targeting.  It also just so happens that the High Red Priest in Volantis is stirring up the locals to support Dany in opposition of the Triarchs.

The whole thing is basically a powder keg ready to explode.

 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, MaesterSam said:

Great discussion going on here!

Just wanted to add my two cents RE: Varys & Illyrio's motivations. Yes they both SAY they want Aegon to be the new king and rule wisely and make things better for the common people. HOWEVER, they had previously arranged to procure a Dothraki khalasar for Viserys, who was then supposed to join Aegon for the invasion of Westeros. If the goal was for Aegon to rule, why give the bigger army to Viserys (who was clearly on a path to madness already)?? Viserys could have easily been dispatched, then Dany could have still been given to Drogo in exchange for the army, but the army for Aegon, not Viserys. Why keep Viserys around at all if Aegon is the chosen king? He is guaranteed to make things more difficult for Aegon, and if he were to prevail then Westeros would go right back to a mad king. So that's problem #1. 

Problem #2 is more serious - the plan to send 100,000 Dothraki to Westeros. We have seen what the Dothraki have done to Essos - they wiped out entire civilizations, burned their cities to the ground and sold their people into slavery. There are practically no small farms or villages anymore because it's not safe - basically it's just the Free Cities who buy off the khalasars when they come by. Everyone is afraid of them; the whole continent is littered with ruins. (The ruins not made by the Dothraki were made by the Valyrians - ironically they also wish to send a Valyrian or three to Westeros). The Dothraki kill, pillage, rape and DON'T ALLOW AGRICULTURE. How can Westeros possibly deal with them? There is zero chance that Viserys or Aegon could keep them under control... never mind that winter is coming and Westeros can't support an additional 100,000 people even if they still had fields to harvest. I just see no scenario in which this move, sending all these Dothraki to Westeros, can possibly be interpreted as being "good for the Realm". No way. 

I actually suspect that what Varys and Illyrio really want is to improve Essos, the continent they're from and where they can rise as high as they wish. So they need to get rid of those pesky Dothraki. They also don't want any Valyrian claimants interfering with their plans, so they find all the potential exiled heirs and send them back across the sea - ideally right along with the Dothraki. Oh and let them take the sellswords while they're at it - that way Essos can have peace and can keep more of its food for the people of the Free Cities. 

That makes pretty much no sense, actually.

For one, the original deal between Drogo and Viserys didn't include 100,000 Dothraki but rather about 10,000. Viserys did not expect Drogo to give him his entire khalasar but only a part of it. Drogo had about 40,000 warriors in a khalasar of about 100,000 people.

10,000 Dothraki are quite manageable. The Golden Company also have 10,000 men.

Drogo's decision to invade Westeros with his entire khalasar wasn't part of the deal and didn't involve Viserys at all. It hinged on Drogo's deep affection for Daenerys, King Robert's assassination attempt, and his belief that his unborn son by Daenerys was the Stallion Who Mounts the World.

But even if Drogo's entire khalasar were to invade Westeros that would be just another 100,000 people, only 40,000 of them warriors. They would make some trouble but not destroy civilization as we know it.

Also, Illyrio and Viserys' deal was only with one khal, Drogo. The Dothraki as a people would not disappear nor would the other khalasars no longer be a danger for the Free Cities if Drogo and his khalasar left Essos.

[MaesterSam]

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

A puzzling aspect of their plan was gathering an army of Dothraki.  Especially since many seem to acknowledge tht they would have never agreed to have gotten on ships to travel to Westeros.  So why the Dothraki?

Exactly! Why the Dothraki? We are told that the three dragon's eggs could buy an army (unhatched), so there was actually no need to sell Dany to Drogo and take the huge risk of sending the last 2 Targaryens into the wilderness with a khalasar in order to obtain an army. Illyrio clearly has more than enough money to buy any armies that might be needed. He could have bought up all the other sellsword companies or - even better - all the Unsullied. It was not necessary to involve the Dothraki in the invasion of Westeros - it was done by choice. Despite them being exceptionally ill-suited for the task in pretty much every way, and especially unsuited to obeying a 16-year old green boy and bringing peace and stability to Westeros. This leads me to the conclusion that bringing peace and stability to Westeros cannot be their primary objective.

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

In addition, I  wonder who the friends are that Illyrio owes the debts of affection to.  Is it just Varys.  Or perhaps Varys and Serra?  Or could it include the Red Priests?

Right. Illyrio claims he is doing this whole thing for someone else's benefit. So who benefits from sending a combination of exiled Westerosi and Dothraki across the sea to Westeros?? Certainly not anyone in Westeros...

 Importantly, Illyrio does not scrap the plan entirely after Viserys dies and Dany hatches the dragons, suggesting that the Dothraki - while clearly desirable as the army - were not essential to the plan. (Which contradicts my theory but it is what it is). 

They also don't scrap the plan after Dany acquires the Unsullied and sacks 3 cities. Do they think little fAegon can somehow control her? Because it almost seems like they don't mind sending an unpredictable ruler with dragons over to Westeros along with their perfect prince...

6 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

If it is the Red Priests, then it wouldn't surpise me if Illyrio never actually planned for Viserys and the army to make their way to Westeros.  Instead, my guess is he may have planned on getting them as far as Volantis.  We've seen before where a plotter uses circumstances to try and pit two groups against another for personal gain.  Specifically, Littlefinger used this tactic in pitting the Lannisters against the Starks.  Who needs an army when you can get someone else to do your dirty work for you.

This is not an idea I've heard before! GRRM loves Littlefinger-type characters, he has them in many of his earlier works too. But why, if Illyrio & Varys want Volantis sacked/conquered, wouldn't they go about it in a more straightforward way? It would have been easier and more reliable to sell the dragon eggs, buy the Unsullied along with the Golden Company and simply sack Volantis. No need to involve the unpredictable horse lords at all, nor to sell their Targaryen heiress... And why bother involving all these former Westerosi like Jon Con and Barristan? And what was Varys doing in King's Landing all these years? I feel like their plan has to involve Westeros somehow, but I think we are in agreement that they don't intend for a safe and prosperous Realm under wise king Aegon VI. 

The involvement of the Red Priests would work better for me if it was anyone other than the Dothraki being used to attack Volantis. I just don't think they can be controlled and would end up burning down the whole city (unless that's what they want??). It seems like there are ways to burn down a city that don't involve years of planning and marrying the last Targaryen to a Dothraki khal. 

 

 

 

[MaesterSam]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That makes pretty much no sense, actually.

Glad you like it 

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

For one, the original deal between Drogo and Viserys didn't include 100,000 Dothraki but rather about 10,000. Viserys did not expect Drogo to give him his entire khalasar but only a part of it. Drogo had about 40,000 warriors in a khalasar of about 100,000 people.

I don't believe we are ever told the details of the original deal. In fact even the participants seem unsure about them, seeing as Viserys states repeatedly that Drogo promised him "an army" and also "a crown". Drogo seems to think his end is fulfilled when he crowns Viserys.

Quote

A mosseaten stone monolith loomed over the road, fifty feet tall. Viserys gazed at it with boredom in his eyes. “How long must we linger amidst these ruins before Drogo gives me my army? I grow tired of waiting.”
“The princess must be presented to the dosh khaleen...”

 

Quote

“He had better,” Viserys said grimly. “I was promised a crown, and I mean to have it. The dragon is not mocked.”

Quote

The knight looked after Viserys doubtfully. “Your brother should have bided his time in Pentos. There is no place for him in a khalasar. Illyrio tried to warn him.”
“He will go as soon as he has his ten thousand. My lord husband promised a golden crown.”
Ser Jorah grunted. “Yes, Khaleesi, but... the Dothraki look on these things differently than we do in the west. I have told him as much, as Illyrio told him, but your brother does not listen. The horselords are no traders. Viserys thinks he sold you, and now he wants his price. Yet Khal Drogo would say he had you as a gift. He will give Viserys a gift in return, yes... in his own time. You do not demand a gift, not of a khal You do not demand anything of a khal.”
“It is not right to make him wait.” Dany did not know why she was defending her brother, yet she was. “Viserys says he could sweep the Seven Kingdoms with ten thousand Dothraki screamers.”

So here we have the crown and the 10,000 Dothraki used almost interchangeably.

You're right, it apparently was not 100,000. I was thinking of the whole khalasar, which it would have been had Drogo & Dany invaded before he died. There are 40,000 mounted warriors, but that's not counting the children or the slaves. 

Quote

Now,” the knight said, “I am less certain. They are better riders than any knight, utterly fearless, and their bows outrange ours. In the Seven Kingdoms, most archers fight on foot, from behind a shieldwall or a barricade of sharpened stakes. The Dothraki fire from horseback, charging or retreating, it makes no matter, they are full as deadly... and there are so many of them, my lady. Your lord husband alone counts forty thousand mounted warriors in his khalasar.”

But was Drogo really going to give Viserys 10,000 men and tell them to obey him?? That seems unlikely to me, or if he did, there is just no way that would go well. Why would Illyrio set up such a thing? If he wanted to kill Viserys there are easier ways...

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

10,000 Dothraki are quite manageable. The Golden Company also have 10,000 men.

Manageable from a food perspective, but they still can't be controlled. Everyone knows the Dothraki follow only strength, so giving them to Viserys is equivalent to just releasing them and letting them do what they want.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Drogo's decision to invade Westeros with his entire khalasar wasn't part of the deal and didn't involve Viserys at all. It hinged on Drogo's deep affection for Daenerys, King Robert's assassination attempt, and his belief that his unborn son by Daenerys was the Stallion Who Mounts the World.

Funny how it was Illyrio who gave him Daenerys, and it was Varys who staged the assassination attempt with Ser Jorah...

In Varys and Illyrio's conversation that Arya overhears, Varys tells Illyrio they need to make Drogo hurry up and march. Shortly after that is the botched attempt on Dany's life, conveniently foiled by Ser Jorah, which convinces Drogo to march. 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But even if Drogo's entire khalasar were to invade Westeros that would be just another 100,000 people, only 40,000 of them warriors. They would make some trouble but not destroy civilization as we know it.

Also, Illyrio and Viserys' deal was only with one khal, Drogo. The Dothraki as a people would not disappear nor would the other khalasars no longer be a danger for the Free Cities if Drogo and his khalasar left Essos.

Yeah but Westeros is already starving after the war of the 5 kings. It's winter, and no new food will grow for many years. There is nobody left who can face an army of 40,000 riders. Even if they don't destroy the whole civilization, can we agree that it's hard to see how this situation could be in the Realm's best interest? And that it would have been more... responsible... to instead buy 10,000 Unsullied?

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, MaesterSam said:

I don't believe we are ever told the details of the original deal. In fact even the participants seem unsure about them, seeing as Viserys states repeatedly that Drogo promised him "an army" and also "a crown". Drogo seems to think his end is fulfilled when he crowns Viserys.

So here we have the crown and the 10,000 Dothraki used almost interchangeably.

Yes, but we do know that whatever the original deal was - and you are right that we don't know any details - it involved about 10,000 Dothraki warriors and not a 100,000 or an entire khalasar.

1 hour ago, MaesterSam said:

But was Drogo really going to give Viserys 10,000 men and tell them to obey him?? That seems unlikely to me, or if he did, there is just no way that would go well. Why would Illyrio set up such a thing? If he wanted to kill Viserys there are easier ways...

We don't know what Drogo originally intended to do, but it seems that he would have either sent those 10,000 men to Viserys - who would have waited at Pentos if Illyrio had had his way - leading them either personally or sending a trusted lieutenant in his stead who would then make sure the men helped Viserys to get what he wanted.

One should also not discount the possibility that Illyrio actually told Drogo about the Golden Company joining them once the Dothraki were ready.

1 hour ago, MaesterSam said:

Manageable from a food perspective, but they still can't be controlled. Everyone knows the Dothraki follow only strength, so giving them to Viserys is equivalent to just releasing them and letting them do what they want.

My gut feeling would be that the 10,000 Dothraki plus the 10,000 Golden Company were supposed to make Viserys look strong in the eyes of the Westerosi lords so that many of all the remaining Targaryen loyalists and other houses loathing the Baratheon regime would declare for him.

Robert clearly fears a Dothraki invasion staged by a Targaryen pretender, so there definitely is reason to believe that such a scenario would have worked.

1 hour ago, MaesterSam said:

Funny how it was Illyrio who gave him Daenerys, and it was Varys who staged the assassination attempt with Ser Jorah...

In Varys and Illyrio's conversation that Arya overhears, Varys tells Illyrio they need to make Drogo hurry up and march. Shortly after that is the botched attempt on Dany's life, conveniently foiled by Ser Jorah, which convinces Drogo to march. 

Of course, Varys and Illyrio are behind the assassination attempt and that was a ploy to manipulate Drogo. They ensured that nobody would be hurt and it just looked as if Robert wanted to kill the Targaryens in exile (and Drogo himself).

That is why the crucial additional factors there - factors which Illyrio and Varys didn't control - are the prophecy about the Stallion and Drogo's feelings for Daenerys. After the assassination attempt Drogo vows to put his and Dany's son on the throne of the boy's grandfather. He wants to see his son on the Iron Throne of Westeros. Could be that this was only a consequence of Viserys' untimely death. But perhaps the assassination attempt would have triggered the same reaction even if Viserys had still been alive at the time of the assassination attempt. And that clearly would have been a problem because Drogo's son was neither Viserys nor Aegon.

In light of Dany's return to the Dothraki it would also not surprise me if Drogo wasn't surprised that the unborn boy Rhaego was declared the Stallion. We still have no clue why Drogo wanted a Targaryen bride. Could very well be that the dosh khaleen earlier prophesied that Khal Drogo had to marry Daenerys Targaryen to ensure the Stallion would come.

1 hour ago, MaesterSam said:

Yeah but Westeros is already starving after the war of the 5 kings. It's winter, and no new food will grow for many years. There is nobody left who can face an army of 40,000 riders. Even if they don't destroy the whole civilization, can we agree that it's hard to see how this situation could be in the Realm's best interest? And that it would have been more... responsible... to instead buy 10,000 Unsullied?

Varys doesn't really seem to plan for a Dothraki invasion at this point. That is something Daenerys may do in the near future, but Varys originally just aimed at a small Dothraki invasion which were to take place at the beginning of the War of the Five Kings.

Of course, Varys' plans also include destruction to a certain point. But that's just a means to the end of installing Aegon as king. He doesn't use Aegon as a smokescreen to create chaos and destruction.

[MaesterSam]

On 7/14/2021 at 7:52 PM, Lord Varys said:

Yes, but we do know that whatever the original deal was - and you are right that we don't know any details - it involved about 10,000 Dothraki warriors and not a 100,000 or an entire khalasar.

Ok, fair.

On 7/14/2021 at 7:52 PM, Lord Varys said:

My gut feeling would be that the 10,000 Dothraki plus the 10,000 Golden Company were supposed to make Viserys look strong in the eyes of the Westerosi lords so that many of all the remaining Targaryen loyalists and other houses loathing the Baratheon regime would declare for him.

Robert clearly fears a Dothraki invasion staged by a Targaryen pretender, so there definitely is reason to believe that such a scenario would have worked.

Are you suggesting they were planning to give Viserys the Golden Company as well? Or that he would have joined with Aegon? I have a hard time imagining Viserys sharing the rule. And why didn't they protect and educate him like they did with Aegon? 

I agree it could have worked in terms of Viserys successfully conquering Westeros. But he would have been a terrible king, worse than Robert for sure and possibly as bad as Aerys. Installing him in place of Robert would not be doing the Realm any favors.

On 7/14/2021 at 7:52 PM, Lord Varys said:

In light of Dany's return to the Dothraki it would also not surprise me if Drogo wasn't surprised that the unborn boy Rhaego was declared the Stallion. We still have no clue why Drogo wanted a Targaryen bride. Could very well be that the dosh khaleen earlier prophesied that Khal Drogo had to marry Daenerys Targaryen to ensure the Stallion would come.

It seems to me that many different cultures have a prophecy that is very similar - all involving the son of a "dragon". Dany is the last dragon, which is why the leaders of several ancient civilizations want to marry her. There is Drogo, hoping for the Stallion. But also the Green Grace says something about "when the harpie weds the dragon" and Euron uses a very  similar phrase. They all want her bloodlines, to birth their version of the prince that was promised. 

I'm sure Varys and Illyrio were aware of this, and were no more surprised than Drogo when Rhaego was declared the Stallion. I doubt they believe in prophecy themselves, but wouldn't hesitate to use it to their advantage.

On 7/14/2021 at 7:52 PM, Lord Varys said:

Varys doesn't really seem to plan for a Dothraki invasion at this point. That is something Daenerys may do in the near future, but Varys originally just aimed at a small Dothraki invasion which were to take place at the beginning of the War of the Five Kings.

True. But this was a time when the Realm was at peace, and things were going pretty well under Robert. The idea that starting a war to overthrow him, which would surely lead to thousands and thousands dead, burned towns/fields/cities, raped women, etc. would be "for the greater good" just to install a boy king (or worse, Viserys!) in his place doesn't work for me. Surely Varys knows better. Even if Aegon was everything they hoped for, he could die of some disease or fall from a horse six months after being crowned. It's just not a good plan if the good of the Realm is really the goal. 

 

[Lord Varys]

32 minutes ago, MaesterSam said:

Are you suggesting they were planning to give Viserys the Golden Company as well? Or that he would have joined with Aegon? I have a hard time imagining Viserys sharing the rule. And why didn't they protect and educate him like they did with Aegon? 

We don't really know the details of the plan, but Tristan Rivers of the Golden Company tells us in ADwD that the original plan of the fat man involved Viserys and his Dothraki joining with them - 'them' being the Golden Company. They do not talk about Aegon in this context - who still was Young Griff on the Rhoyne at the time - so we don't know whether he was supposed to join with them, too.

What I draw out of all that is that the original plan was to first put Viserys III on the Iron Throne and then have him acknowledge Aegon as Rhaegar's son and his presumptive heir ... after which he would then suffer some kind of accident to be replaced by Aegon. That would also have the advantage that Viserys could be blamed for whatever atrocities were committed during the war with Aegon keeping his hands clean.

32 minutes ago, MaesterSam said:

I agree it could have worked in terms of Viserys successfully conquering Westeros. But he would have been a terrible king, worse than Robert for sure and possibly as bad as Aerys. Installing him in place of Robert would not be doing the Realm any favors.

I don't think Viserys would have been all that bad a king. Not a good king, mind you, but he reminds me a lot of the second Daemon Blackfyre. Viserys could have been a great figurehead king, being ruled by his advisers and lords. Him abusing Daenerys and him dreaming of revenge and payback doesn't mean he would have to be a cruel tyrant. After all, what he wanted most was to be recognized as and be treated like a king. That was all. If he got that chance he could have been rather open-handed with the people who treated him like a king.

32 minutes ago, MaesterSam said:

It seems to me that many different cultures have a prophecy that is very similar - all involving the son of a "dragon". Dany is the last dragon, which is why the leaders of several ancient civilizations want to marry her. There is Drogo, hoping for the Stallion. But also the Green Grace says something about "when the harpie weds the dragon" and Euron uses a very  similar phrase. They all want her bloodlines, to birth their version of the prince that was promised. 

For the Stallion this might be the case, but the Ghiscari and Euron seem to be more obsessed with her name/her dragons/the power she wields than the future.

32 minutes ago, MaesterSam said:

I'm sure Varys and Illyrio were aware of this, and were no more surprised than Drogo when Rhaego was declared the Stallion. I doubt they believe in prophecy themselves, but wouldn't hesitate to use it to their advantage.

At this point we unfortunately have no clue how the Dothraki alliance was established, so it is all speculation how it came to be that Viserys/Illyrio made the deal with Drogo.

32 minutes ago, MaesterSam said:

True. But this was a time when the Realm was at peace, and things were going pretty well under Robert. The idea that starting a war to overthrow him, which would surely lead to thousands and thousands dead, burned towns/fields/cities, raped women, etc. would be "for the greater good" just to install a boy king (or worse, Viserys!) in his place doesn't work for me. Surely Varys knows better. Even if Aegon was everything they hoped for, he could die of some disease or fall from a horse six months after being crowned. It's just not a good plan if the good of the Realm is really the goal.

Things were not going well under Robert. Robert set the Realm up to explode with his two ambitious brothers, his scheming queen and his ugly father-in-law ... not to mention the wounds of the earlier usurpation and the Ironborn question: The Greyjoys and the Martells were also sharpening their daggers, and Robert's court was full of corrupt men who were only out for themselves.

Compared to the War of the Five Kings things were pretty good under Robert ... but if you think about how things were under good or great kings then King Robert sets a very bad example. You wouldn't have gotten travesties of justice like the Mycah-Nymeria incident from Aegon I or Jaehaerys I, nor things like allowing Jaime to continue in the KG, the Daenerys assassination plot, there being no consequences after Gregor's attempt to murder Loras, etc. Not to mention Robert wasting the Crown's money.

[MaesterSam]

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think Viserys would have been all that bad a king. Not a good king, mind you, but he reminds me a lot of the second Daemon Blackfyre. Viserys could have been a great figurehead king, being ruled by his advisers and lords. Him abusing Daenerys and him dreaming of revenge and payback doesn't mean he would have to be a cruel tyrant. After all, what he wanted most was to be recognized as and be treated like a king. That was all. If he got that chance he could have been rather open-handed with the people who treated him like a king.

So was Aerys, and yet Varys and Illyrio started their plan even while his reign was still quite reasonable. (Barristan says the rot in Aerys's reign started with Varys). fAegon wasn't even born at this point, whether he's the real Aegon or not. Which is also more or less proof that crowning fAegon couldn't have been the original goal : he didn't even exist when Varys came to KL to 'counsel' Aerys. 

Why go to the trouble of de-throning the Targaryens, allowing Robert to become king, only to wait 15 years and install the actual Targaryen heir (Viserys)?? How would they benefit from this situation? They could have simply had Aerys killed and saved themselves (and the Realm!) 2 wars. 

[MaesterSam]

Quote

 

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three newhatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver’s Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well."

- "The Lost Lord", ADWD

 

Here it sounds as if originally Illyrio did intend for all of Drogo's riders to join the Golden Company. 

[Frey family reunion]

On 7/18/2021 at 9:54 AM, MaesterSam said:

and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis.

Isn't that a tad bit suspicious?

[Lord Varys]

On 7/18/2021 at 4:12 PM, MaesterSam said:

So was Aerys, and yet Varys and Illyrio started their plan even while his reign was still quite reasonable. (Barristan says the rot in Aerys's reign started with Varys). fAegon wasn't even born at this point, whether he's the real Aegon or not. Which is also more or less proof that crowning fAegon couldn't have been the original goal : he didn't even exist when Varys came to KL to 'counsel' Aerys.

That isn't really proof of anything. Aerys was already pretty paranoid prior to Duskendale, paying informants and spies for rumors about real and imagined treasons and plots. That deepened after Duskendale, culminating in the hiring of Varys ... but we have no idea whether Varys or his king's paranoia was the one influencing Varys' job description.

Look at Varys' modus operandi later on ... it is most visible with Tyrion. When Tyrion becomes Acting Hand and effectively runs Joffrey's government Varys approaches him and tests his character and interests. He offers him a variation of news bites, important political information mixed with irrelevant gossip. When Tyrion makes it clear he doesn't care about Balon Swann's toasts and jests Tyrion establishes that he isn't the kind of guy who is going to be absorbed and obsessed by rumors and reports about treasons.

We see a similar thing later with Cersei, although it is not a test by Varys then, she is just ignoring important political stuff and jumping on the news about the mummers and their play about the dragon hatching from the egg and devouring the arrogant lions.

We can expect that Varys, having joined the court of the Mad King, tested what kind of news Aerys wanted to hear, finding out what kind of issues he had to bring to him to keep his favor. And that would have been reports and rumors about plots and treasons.

But this does not necessarily mean that Varys told Aerys lies or poisoned his mind against his leal lords and retainers.

It is possible that he did that, but it is neither proven nor necessary in light of Aerys' state of mind. The man didn't need a foreign eunuch to decide this or that person was responsible for his inability to father living children, say.

And, of course, the Aegon plan is a plan they only made after the Sack. Whether they had a plan prior to the Rebellion besides using Varys' influence with the Mad King to make more money, etc. isn't clear at this point.

On 7/18/2021 at 4:12 PM, MaesterSam said:

Why go to the trouble of de-throning the Targaryens, allowing Robert to become king, only to wait 15 years and install the actual Targaryen heir (Viserys)?? How would they benefit from this situation? They could have simply had Aerys killed and saved themselves (and the Realm!) 2 wars. 

Well, one of my main arguments against the idea that there was a plan prior to the Sack is that Varys and Illyrio didn't use the Rebellion for their own ends. There was neither a Blackfyre pretender coming forth nor an invasion by the Golden Company. And Varys is so good at what he does that he could have predicted the beginning of the war weeks or months before it began.

That it is kind of strange that Varys/Illyrio backed Viserys while also building up Aegon as a future pretender - and the ideal king, at that - is obvious, but this doesn't change the facts. They did not plan for Viserys' untimely death and, apparently, intended Viserys, his Dothraki, and the Golden Company to invade Westeros together.

On 7/18/2021 at 4:54 PM, MaesterSam said:

Here it sounds as if originally Illyrio did intend for all of Drogo's riders to join the Golden Company. 

It seems Tristan Rivers was under that impression, at least. But we know more details from AGoT where Viserys and Illyrio do not talk about 50,000 Dothraki. It might be that Rivers and the other officers heard about Drogo's later plan to invade Westeros with his entire khalasar.

The crucial thing here is that Rivers tells us the Golden Company knew that Viserys and the Dothraki were supposed to join with them. That means that whatever plan Varys, Illyrio, and Myles Toyne originally made eventually did include whatever plans Illyrio made with Viserys and Drogo. They were supposed to profit from the Viserys-Dothraki plan.

[MaesterSam]

On 7/20/2021 at 3:49 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Isn't that a tad bit suspicious?

I would find it more suspicious if this had been the original plan. However, originally Viserys was supposed to join the Golden Company - with no location specified but it sounded like he would come to them, and they were not at this point near Volantis. After Viserys was dead and Dany hatched the dragons, the "pliable young child queen" who was on her way to Pentos would join them instead. (No change of location was mentioned). Only after Dany takes a detour to Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake is the plan revised and the GC ordered to now meet her in a new location, Volantis. This location is logical if they assumed she would eventually head for Westeros from her current location in Slaver's Bay. 

Sorry, for me, the availability of the well-behaved Unsullied for purchase to anyone who has the cash - combined with the knowledge that Illyrio has almost unlimited wealth - makes it difficult to believe that Varys and Illyrio's end goal is something that can be achieved by military force alone (such as sacking a city). There is simply no need to spend 20 years plotting and planning, involving exiles to raise Valyrian-looking children, setting up a Targaryen-Dothraki marriage and hoping that everything plays out just right so the khalasaar ends up sacking Volantis while you keep your hands clean.

 

[MaesterSam]

On 7/20/2021 at 7:52 PM, Lord Varys said:

We can expect that Varys, having joined the court of the Mad King, tested what kind of news Aerys wanted to hear, finding out what kind of issues he had to bring to him to keep his favor. And that would have been reports and rumors about plots and treasons.

But this does not necessarily mean that Varys told Aerys lies or poisoned his mind against his leal lords and retainers.

It is possible that he did that, but it is neither proven nor necessary in light of Aerys' state of mind. The man didn't need a foreign eunuch to decide this or that person was responsible for his inability to father living children, say.

I actually agree with this statement. In fact, I believe Tywin (possibly in alliance with Rhaegar and some of the kingsguard) was actively working against Aerys and that Aerys's paranoia in many ways was justified. He really did have enemies all around him, he was right to be afraid. The whole Duskendale situation all but proved it; Tywin clearly had arranged this so that he could rid himself of Aerys and crown Rhaegar. He didn't expect Ser Barristan to get Aerys out alive; this messed up the plan and left Aerys even more paranoid (for good reason). Of course it's also likely that his third eye opened/he experienced dreams and visions while kept in the dark dungeons there for weeks. This would not have helped his mental health, which I don't dispute was slipping. 

Regarding Aerys's inability to father living children, I think he may have been right to question this too. While other Targaryens before Aerys & Rhaella had fertility problems, this case is unique in that more than one baby is born alive and seemingly healthy, only to die weeks/months or even up to a year later. This is not part of the more common pattern of 'dragon' children and other malformed stillbirths that we see with other Targaryens. These are healthy children who die long after birth. When Aerys implemented all the extra safety measures for Viserys, this baby was the first to survive. Dany also apparently was a healthy baby, as was Rhaegar. So it makes sense to suspect that someone was killing the children. I personally suspect the grand maester ("who do you think killed all the dragons the last time around?" A: Pycelle of course, who had Aerys open the gates. Was he the one who poisoned the babies?).

Despite all this, everyone who looks back on this time (Barristan, Jaime, Jon Con) remembers things getting worse, not better, after Varys arrived. Varys was surely aware of how he was influencing the king's actions and could have informed him more selectively to keep the peace. If the babies were being poisoned Varys apparently didn't find out who did it, yet allowed Aerys to continue believing it. He may have alerted Aerys regarding Tywin and Rhaegar's disloyalty, but apparently he couldn't find proof or they would have been executed. So he was either fine with hastening the deterioration of Aerys's mental health, or, he was somewhat incompetent at least compared to the Varys of today. Neither one is a good look and certainly neither is good for the Realm. 

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, MaesterSam said:

I would find it more suspicious if this had been the original plan. However, originally Viserys was supposed to join the Golden Company -

Except for the fact that it was Viserys and a horde of Dothraki that were supposed to join the golden company.  The Dothraki who were notorious for being deathly afraid of crossing the sea.  Illyrio's plans were bonkers from the start.  At least if his plans really did involve actually going to Westeros.  

2 hours ago, MaesterSam said:

This location is logical if they assumed she would eventually head for Westeros from her current location in Slaver's Bay. 

The plan is extremely illogical if Illyrio had any eyes and ears on the ground in Volantis.  The triarchs were very loudly in support of going to war with Dany, and the Red Priests were stirring up the slaves to rise up if their overlords tried to harm their silver queen.  Under this scenario having Dany meet the Golden Company outside the walls of Volantis was inviting open warfare with Volantis and inviting a slave revolt.  Something that Illyrio had to have known.

And interestingly enough, it seems that the Dothrakis still may be involved, since we hear word that another Dothraki horde is popping up just north of Volantis.

[MaesterSam]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Except for the fact that it was Viserys and a horde of Dothraki that were supposed to join the golden company.  The Dothraki who were notorious for being deathly afraid of crossing the sea.  Illyrio's plans were bonkers from the start.  At least if his plans really did involve actually going to Westeros.  

Agreed. The plan as it is presented to us never made sense. The Dothraki are just about the most unsuitable army one could possibly find if the goal is to 1) SAIL across the sea and 2) have a kingdom left to rule after the invasion, not just a continent littered with ruins. 

 

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

The plan is extremely illogical if Illyrio had any eyes and ears on the ground in Volantis.  The triarchs were very loudly in support of going to war with Dany, and the Red Priests were stirring up the slaves to rise up if their overlords tried to harm their silver queen.  Under this scenario having Dany meet the Golden Company outside the walls of Volantis was inviting open warfare with Volantis and inviting a slave revolt.  Something that Illyrio had to have known.

True. Golden Company or no, allowing Dany and her army anywhere near Volantis is a sack/slave revolt waiting to happen. It doesn't appear to be a secret that the Volantene nobility is afraid of Dany and the slave revolt she would incite, so Illyrio must have been aware. 

That being said, Illyrio at this point had no control over Dany or her movements. We learn from multiple POVs that Dany was widely expected to march on from Meereen to Volantis. Regardless of whether she sacked it or not, Volantis would be the closest place from which Dany could sail to Westeros. It's also directly on the way to any of the other Free Cities. So she will be coming there regardless (except she then decides to stay in Meereen, throwing off all the plans!). In other words, Illyrio didn't have a lot of other options for meeting places. The GC can't very well camp out on the demon road until Dany decides to show up.