Is it within the realm of possibility that Cannibal is still alive?

[Gilbert Green]

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, my point is that smart people - and the maesters writing Westerosi are not dumb, and neither are the king's advisers and officials - wouldn't conclude the last dragon was the last dragon if they had reason to believe that (at least) 1-2 dragons were still out there.

I am imagining you going to see your dear old Auntie, who you have not seen in 10 years:

YOU:  Auntie, where are all your cats?  You used to have 5 of them?

AUNTIE:  All gone.  My last kitty, Mittens, died a month ago of kitty cancer.

YOU:  What about Floopsums?

AUNTIE:  Choked on a hairball 5 years ago.

YOU:  What about Pudgeums?

AUNTIE:  The neighbors dog ate him last August.

YOU:  Lady Whiskers?

AUNTIE:  Hit by a car.

YOU:  Ser Pounce?

AUNTIE:  Don't know.  3 years ago, he went out and never returned.

YOU:  You mean you never found the body?

AUNTIE:  No [sniff].

YOU:  STUPID LIAR!!!  YOU TOLD ME THAT THE LAST ONE DIED A MONTH AGO!!  BUT SER POUNCE IS OBVIOUSLY STILL OUT THERE.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure what's so difficult to understand there. No smart person would proclaim a dragon dead because he didn't check in with the royal court for a couple of years. And from 135 AC (the year the army of the regency government encountered Sheepstealer in the Mountains of the Moon) and the year 153 AC - when the last dragon died - it is not even two decades.

Seems to me that a dragon who has not been in Targaryen custody or control for over 2 decades, and indeed was never in Targaryen custody or control, is not a Targaryen dragon.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Hell, if the Targaryens had reason to believe or only hope that large dragons were still out there somewhere in the wild then the brave youngsters would have travelled the Mountains of the Moon to mount them - especially valiant and courageous youths like Aemon the Dragonknight and the Young Dragon.

Where would they get the team of helicopters necessary (but probably insufficient) for the task?

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And why the dragon would be found if living or dead is obvious: It was found by the clansmen while alive, so they, at least, would sure as hell know when there was no longer a living but a dead dragon in the cave of the fire witch. After all, they went regularly there to face the dragon and get themselves burned.

No cave was mentioned.  For all we know, the fire-witch came to meet them on these special occasions.  And even if they did know where the find her, no logic requires her to wait in the same place for 20 years for Aemon the Dragonknight to show up with his team of helicopters.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And dragon carcasses don't disappear easily. Vhagar's carcass was recovered from the Gods Eye years after her death.

You have reasoned that because it is possible for a creature to come to rest in shallow water, it is impossible for the creature to come to rest in deep water, or any other inaccessable area.  You know that dragons can fly, right?  They can reach inaccessible areas, and maybe die there. 

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But honestly I'd actually expect that Sheepstealer will fall to some dragonslayer - either one from the ranks of the clansmen who are not Burned Men or to some valiant knight dispatched by the Lords of the Vale. Because I said - they would have no interest in having a fucking dragon in their neighborhood.

I'll wait for further details from GRRM.   I don't accept your authority or your reasoning.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Silverwing might also fall to a dragonslayer. Aegon III is going to close his eyes to stuff like that - ignoring it or perhaps even secretly or not so secretly encouraging his lords to put down dangerous dragons.

Or maybe she just disappeared, and folks reasoned her body was at the bottom of Red Lake.  And I suppose you are about to tell me that is impossible, because Aegon III would have just sent the submarines to check.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

As you must know - an entire royal army witnessed the dragon in the Mountains of the Moon - and he killed a dozen or so men when they chanced upon him. So the people in charge knew of Sheepstealer's presence independent from the tales of the clansmen.

They surely must have been eager to go back for more.  This time with helicopters and high-altitude oxygen tanks.  After all, the best way to fight a dragon is while roped to a cliff and trying to climb.   If they could not find a live dragon, after throroughly searching the peaks and cliff caves and mountain forests, they would have surely returned with submarines to explore all the deep mountain lakes, just to make sure the Maesters were correct when they said "last dragon".

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It could be that FaB II gives a credible version of the 'the Cannibal disappeared and was eventually presumed dead' story.

It certainly seems, given the vast size of Westeros and its Wilderness areas, that GRRM could easily make such a credible version.

Hell, maybe Nettles took off for Skagos when she saw Aemon the Dragonknight arriving with his team of helicopters.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, it has nothing to do with omniscience ... people would simply not call a dragon the last dragon if they had fucking reason to believe others might still be out there in their very own land. That's really not hard to grasp.

Explain that to your dear old stupid lying Auntie.

[Gilbert Green]

AGOT - Catelyn's POV:  "In the south the last weirwoods had been cut down or burned out a thousand years ago, except on the Isle of Faces where the green men kept their silent watch."

We now know this is not true in an absolute strict literal sense.  I don't see much of a contradiction, though.  "The South" is a huge huge place.  And Catelyn is not omniscient.

By the same token, I don't see why "last dragon" need be treated in absolute terms either.

[Gilbert Green]

From Cersei's POV in FEAST:

"One last thing, Your Grace," said Aurane Waters, in an apologetic tone. "I hesitate to take up the council's time with trifles, but there has been some queer talk heard along the docks of late. Sailors from the east. They speak of dragons . . ."

". . . and manticores, no doubt, and bearded snarks?" Cersei chuckled. "Come back to me when you hear talk of dwarfs, my lord." She stood, to signal that the meeting was at an end.

From Tyrion's POV in DANCE:

Tyrion made a waddling bow, but at the cabin door, he turned back. "What if we should find the queen and discover that this talk of dragons was just some sailor's drunken fancy? This wide world is full of such mad tales. Grumkins and snarks, ghosts and ghouls, mermaids, rock goblins, winged horses, winged pigs … winged lions."

From Davos' POV in DANCE:

Next to the high seat, Ser Marlon Manderly gave a snort of disdain. "It has been centuries since White Harbor has seen any wildlings, and the ironmen have never troubled this coast. Does Lord Stannis propose to defend us from snarks and dragons too?"

Laughter swept the Merman's Court [...]

Nothing could be more clear.  It is not that nobody every tells stories of dragons.  It is just that when such stories are told, nobody believes them.  And it is very likely that most of the stories and travelers tales are false.  But some might be true as well. 

[The Commentator]

Cannibal is not likely to be alive. His skeletal remains, if preserved, can be reanimated by the Others. 

[Lord Varys]

12 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Seems to me that a dragon who has not been in Targaryen custody or control for over 2 decades, and indeed was never in Targaryen custody or control, is not a Targaryen dragon.

I gave you the reason why I view the wild dragons as such - they are all descended from dragons the Targaryens brought to Dragonstone. The dragons the Targaryens brought to Westeros are the last Valyrian dragons and, apparently or likely even, the last dragons in the world.

If you want to you can call them 'non-Targaryen dragons' or whatever - it doesn't change the argument given.

12 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Where would they get the team of helicopters necessary (but probably insufficient) for the task?

No cave was mentioned.  For all we know, the fire-witch came to meet them on these special occasions.  And even if they did know where the find her, no logic requires her to wait in the same place for 20 years for Aemon the Dragonknight to show up with his team of helicopters.

LOL, I'm sorry. But this is a world where people live in. Even in the Mountains of the Moon. They are not empty. If anyone wanted to find Nettles and her dragon, they would go to the mountains with a strong enough retinue to command respect, and then ask and pay the locals to share their knowledge with them. It wouldn't be hard at all. If Tyrion could buy their allegiance in half of a chapter, a Targaryen prince might need less than a paragraph.

And it is mentioned that Nettles and her dragon lived at some place. It doesn't have to be a cave, but that's quite likely since she lived in a cave when found by the army ... and she would need some shelter from the cold in the mountains especially in winter. The clansmen becoming the Burned Men sent their youths to her to face her dragon. She did not come to them - nor, one imagines, give a fig about them and their superstitious rites. If she had cared for them, she would have quickly been their leader ... and then she and her people would have quickly taken over all the clansmen, becoming a real threat to the Vale.

12 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

I'll wait for further details from GRRM.   I don't accept your authority or your reasoning.

Apparently you are not willing to accept the details already given by George - because they don't imply that the dragons disappeared, they indicate they all died. Because that's what the last dragon being the last dragon means. It is not conclusive yet, but implied. As I said - if any dragon were to have outlived the so-called last dragon then the author would have to give the people in-universe a very good reason to believe those dragons to be dead, anyway. Them beliving they just 'disappeared' wouldn't convince them they are dead.

12 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Or maybe she just disappeared, and folks reasoned her body was at the bottom of Red Lake.  And I suppose you are about to tell me that is impossible, because Aegon III would have just sent the submarines to check.

LOL, we actually do know that Silverwing's story is going to continue. Because last we meet her she is at Red Lake. Her story will continue, just as the story of Morning will. And while I don't think there will be much more said about Sheepstealer in FaB II I might expect a line or two about folks concluding that he was dead. The Cannibal, though, is a pretty big dangling thread. At the end of FaB he is still on Dragonstone and nobody said anything about him disappearing or dying. He will have to be revisited in some fashion in FaB II.

The Cannibal just disappearing also makes little to no sense. The only way this story could make sense if the Dragonmount were to erupt during the reign of Aegon III and the lava, etc. would make the Cannibal's lair inaccessible. Wild/riderless dragons are territorial animals. When they choose a lair they stay there and hunt in the surrounding area. They don't just leave for no reason. But even if the Cannibal were actually to leave Dragonstone all by himself for some reason ... chances are about zero that he would fly up north to settle on some cold island. Dragons don't like the cold, after all.

[Bowen 747]

Yes it is within the realm of possibility but the probability is low.  A dragon of that size can't hide.  But even if he was still alive, the north is the last place he would go.  He would hang out where it's warm.  Like the Summer Isles.  Reports would have reached the maesters if that were true. 

[Bowen 747]

Pick a wighted Mammoth if you just want to give Snowflake his own ride. 

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

30 minutes ago, Bowen 747 said:

Yes it is within the realm of possibility but the probability is low.  A dragon of that size can't hide.  But even if he was still alive, the north is the last place he would go.  He would hang out where it's warm.  Like the Summer Isles.  Reports would have reached the maesters if that were true. 

Or he could’ve flown to the Far East or to Sothoryos 

[Bowen 747]

9 minutes ago, Prince Rhaegar Targareyen said:

Or he could’ve flown to the Far East or to Sothoryos 

if he is hiding it will be in the Far West.  Where Qaithe wants Dany to pass through on her way to Westeros. 

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

1 hour ago, Bowen 747 said:

if he is hiding it will be in the Far West.  Where Qaithe wants Dany to pass through on her way to Westeros. 

And if Dany gets another dragon that massive the story becomes less interesting. She’ll already be OP as fuck. Unless she loses her dragons, then she’ll be powerless.

[Gilbert Green]

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

I gave you the reason why I view the wild dragons as such - they are all descended from dragons the Targaryens brought to Dragonstone.

Dragonstone was a military outpost of Valyria for about 200 years before Aenar Targaryen arrived there with his 5 dragons.  And it seems to have earned the name "Dragonstone" prior to his arrival.   "... the Cannibal had made his lair on Dragonstone even before the coming of the Targaryens, some smallfolk claimed."  (F&B, The Dying of the Dragons, The Red Dragon and the Gold).  You might have a stronger case if you said "Valyrian Dragons".

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

The dragons the Targaryens brought to Westeros are the last Valyrian dragons and, apparently or likely even, the last dragons in the world.

If you want to you can call them 'non-Targaryen dragons' or whatever - it doesn't change the argument given.

Your argument essentially is that nobody would say "last dragon" or "last Targaryen dragon" unless they knew with reasonable certainty that all known dragons from the Dance, and their descendants, were dead.  

Except that we know from Archmaester Gyldayne that he has no confirmation of the death of Sheepstealer.   All he has is the last confirmed sighting near the High Road ("That was the last known sighting of Sheepstealer and his rider"), and the rumored "fire witch" story years later in a hidden valley.  So something is wrong with your argument.  It proves too much. It proves things we know are wrong.

If it can't prove that Sheepstealer is confirmed-dead, then it cannot prove that Cannibal is confirmed-dead either.

We can agree on this much:  Tyrion thinks the deformed-skull hatchlings MIGHT be the last dragons anywhere (in addition to being the "last Targaryen dragons", whatever that means).   So we know that if other dragons survive, Tyrion does not know with any certainty that they survive.  That's the most we can say.

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

LOL, I'm sorry. But this is a world where people live in. Even in the Mountains of the Moon. They are not empty.

But they are BIG.  So yeah, parts of it are empty.  "... tales of a 'fire-witch' who once dwelled in a hidden vale far from any road or village" (F&B - last chapter).

The Mountains of the Moon are an inhospitable mountain region of (judging from the map) about 100,000 square miles in area.  It is bigger than the entirety of Ireland.  It is so inhospitable, that there is only one reasonably navigable pass through it -- the High Road to the Bloody Gate, which is the lowest and easiest route available, winding, and precariously bordered by cliffs and chasms.  The only other reasonable option is to reach the Vale by sea.  These Mountains are HIGH.  The highest peak rises over 3.5 miles above the Valley Floor.  Its total elevation is no doubt far higher -- 4 miles or more.  The height of the Giant's Lance is such that no-one has visited its peak except in legend, which is what you'd expect given so enormous an elevation.  For comparison, Mount Blanc, which straddles France and Italy, is just under 3 miles in total elevation, is located in a more southerly climate yet its summit is covered year round with ice and snow, and was not scaled until the 18th century.  No doubt, even many lesser peaks of The Mountains of the Moon have also never been visited by humans.

The Mountain Clans are brigands.  They are parasites who prey on the civilized world.  They retreat into the wilderness to hide -- but not too far in.  They have no interest in climbing high mountain peaks.  For one thing, the higher you climb, the colder it gets. The High Road, by its very nature and purpose, must be one of the lowest and most accessible parts of the Mountains of the Moon (though it still must be a mile and a half or more above sea level).   So they haunt the vicinity of the High Road in order to ambush people. 

The Clansman encountered by Ser Robert Rowan were starving when he met them.  Finding food isn't going to be any easier if they climb above the tree-line.

If the Clansmen did see a dragon, what would they do?  Go to the nearest castle and report it to their local Maester?  No.  The people who live in castles are their bitter enemies against whom they have murderously preyed for the last 5,000 years.

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

If anyone wanted to find Nettles and her dragon, they would go to the mountains with a strong enough retinue to command respect, and then ask and pay the locals to share their knowledge with them.

"... the mountain clans were lawless brigands, descending from the heights to rob and kill and melting away like snow whenever the knights rode out from the Vale in search of them" (AGOT - Catelyn POV).  Armed expeditions from civilization cannot even catch the mountain-clan brigands.  How on earth are they going to catch a dragon who can fly over peaks and valleys, cliffs and chasms?

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

It wouldn't be hard at all. If Tyrion could buy their allegiance in half of a chapter, a Targaryen prince might need less than a paragraph.

Tyrion got lucky.  Which is fine.  I don't mind a little luck in service of a story.  And he got on their good side by appealing to their desire to rape and murder the people of the Vale.  Which would not have been an option for a decent person.

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

And it is mentioned that Nettles and her dragon lived at some place. It doesn't have to be a cave, but that's quite likely since she lived in a cave when found by the army ... and she would need some shelter from the cold in the mountains especially in winter.

Sure she would need shelter. 

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

The clansmen becoming the Burned Men sent their youths to her to face her dragon.

Looking at the text of F&B, it looks like the brave lads did indeed invade her lair.  One imagines she was not wild about such encounters.

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

She did not come to them - nor, one imagines, give a fig about them and their superstitious rites.

She may have appreciated some of the gifts they brought her.  She was "ragged" when she fled from Ser Robert Rowan.  Some new clothes might have been appreciated.   Some food other than roast wild goat or roast wild sheep might have been appreciated. 

But she may have eventually had enough of these brave young lads, at least he ones who invaded her lair, in order to provoke her dragon, and in order to get themselves killed or maimed.

It is perfectly plausible that after too many such encounters (after taking a few gifts of warm clothes) she fled even deeper and higher into the mountains to avoid such annoyances.  No point waiting around until too long until everyone knows her address.  If you want to hide, and your cover is blown, you move.

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

If she had cared for them, she would have quickly been their leader ... and then she and her people would have quickly taken over all the clansmen, becoming a real threat to the Vale.

Is that what you would have done?  Maybe she's sick of slaughter.  After Ser Rowan's men found her, she abandoned her lair and flew off deeper into the mountains.

If she cared for the brave young lads, she might go away, to stop the young bozos from getting themselves maimed and killed.  Not to mention the potential threat of persons of uncertain character sneaking into her lair for dubious motives.

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

Apparently you are not willing to accept the details already given by George - because they don't imply that the dragons disappeared, they indicate they all died.

I don't think I have ignored any details

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

Because that's what the last dragon being the last dragon means. It is not conclusive yet, but implied. As I said - if any dragon were to have outlived the so-called last dragon then the author would have to give the people in-universe a very good reason to believe those dragons to be dead, anyway. Them beliving they just 'disappeared' wouldn't convince them they are dead.

But that's what happened to Sheepstealer, and probably Cannibal as well.  They vanished.  I think you are the one who is refusing to accept the details given by George.

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

LOL, we actually do know that Silverwing's story is going to continue. Because last we meet her she is at Red Lake. Her story will continue, just as the story of Morning will. And while I don't think there will be much more said about Sheepstealer in FaB II I might expect a line or two about folks concluding that he was dead.

Gyldayne is explicit that there are no more confirmed sightings of Sheepstealer.   So I guess people can conclude what they want.

I do suspect we will get more information on Silverwing and Morning.  I never said their story wasn't going to continue.  It's just that, unlike you, I do not pretend to know things I don't know.

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

The Cannibal, though, is a pretty big dangling thread. At the end of FaB he is still on Dragonstone and nobody said anything about him disappearing or dying. He will have to be revisited in some fashion in FaB II.

It will probably say he vanished after the war.  Because that's what TWOIAF says.  We'll probably get a detail or two more, but I expect it overall to be consistent.

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

The Cannibal just disappearing also makes little to no sense. The only way this story could make sense if the Dragonmount were to erupt during the reign of Aegon III and the lava, etc. would make the Cannibal's lair inaccessible. Wild/riderless dragons are territorial animals. When they choose a lair they stay there and hunt in the surrounding area. They don't just leave for no reason.

Just because we don't know the reason does not mean there is no reason.  What about the mating urge?  He was the last dragon left on Dragonstone.   No mating prospects there.  And I'm not even saying that that was the reason.  Could be other reasons.

On 2/1/2023 at 12:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

But even if the Cannibal were actually to leave Dragonstone all by himself for some reason ... chances are about zero that he would fly up north to settle on some cold island. Dragons don't like the cold, after all.

Says who?  Dragons are traditionally associated with the North.  We know they do like volcanoes though.

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Dragonstone was a military outpost of Valyria for about 200 years before Aenar Targaryen arrived there with his 5 dragons.  And it seems to have earned the name "Dragonstone" prior to his arrival.   "... the Cannibal had made his lair on Dragonstone even before the coming of the Targaryens, some smallfolk claimed."  (F&B, The Dying of the Dragons, The Red Dragon and the Gold).  You might have a stronger case if you said "Valyrian Dragons".

I know that quote, you know ... if you want to believe what some smallfolk claim then I trust it you also believe Sansa can turn into a winged wolf.

This is a nice anecdote, but scarcely something to base knowledge about the Cannibal on.

8 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Your argument essentially is that nobody would say "last dragon" or "last Targaryen dragon" unless they knew with reasonable certainty that all known dragons from the Dance, and their descendants, were dead.  

Except that we know from Archmaester Gyldayne that he has no confirmation of the death of Sheepstealer.   All he has is the last confirmed sighting near the High Road ("That was the last known sighting of Sheepstealer and his rider"), and the rumored "fire witch" story years later in a hidden valley.  So something is wrong with your argument.  It proves too much. It proves things we know are wrong.

You do understandthat seeing/finding a rotten dragon carcass doesn't qualify as the sighting of Sheepstealer and his rider, right? Such a sighting would involve a living dragon and a living rider, whilst a carcass might indicate that it was the dragon known as Sheepstealer ... or not, depending how well-preserved it is.

8 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

If it can't prove that Sheepstealer is confirmed-dead, then it cannot prove that Cannibal is confirmed-dead either.

For the Cannibal we have yet to learn that he 'disappeared' because in FaB he doesn't disappear.

8 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

We can agree on this much:  Tyrion thinks the deformed-skull hatchlings MIGHT be the last dragons anywhere (in addition to being the "last Targaryen dragons", whatever that means).   So we know that if other dragons survive, Tyrion does not know with any certainty that they survive.  That's the most we can say.

Tyrion knows the skulls of the last dragons, as he would know all about the skulls of the others. There are books on dragonlore and he read them.

8 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

But they are BIG.  So yeah, parts of it are empty.  "... tales of a 'fire-witch' who once dwelled in a hidden vale far from any road or village" (F&B - last chapter).

Some archmaester might deem the valley hidden, etc. ... but not somebody actually going to Mountains of the Moon and asking the Burned Men where to find it. Because they know, right?

8 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

If the Clansmen did see a dragon, what would they do?  Go to the nearest castle and report it to their local Maester?  No.  The people who live in castles are their bitter enemies against whom they have murderously preyed for the last 5,000 years.

Those people do have a connection with the dragon, that's why they sent their youths to him. And, of course, if outsiders were willing to pay in coin and other favors they would tell them where to go. Especially if they came there in force.

8 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Tyrion got lucky.  Which is fine.  I don't mind a little luck in service of a story.  And he got on their good side by appealing to their desire to rape and murder the people of the Vale.  Which would not have been an option for a decent person.

Rich princes also do offer coin and weapons and favors. Do you honestly think those wildlings cannot be bribed when Tyrion did just that - and he used empty promises.

8 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

She may have appreciated some of the gifts they brought her.  She was "ragged" when she fled from Ser Robert Rowan.  Some new clothes might have been appreciated.   Some food other than roast wild goat or roast wild sheep might have been appreciated. 

But she may have eventually had enough of these brave young lads, at least he ones who invaded her lair, in order to provoke her dragon, and in order to get themselves killed or maimed.

It is perfectly plausible that after this encounter (after taking a few gifts of warm clothes) she fled even deeper and higher into the mountains to avoid such annoyances.

We have no idea why exactly she fled - but presumably because her dragon had killed people and the men would kill her and him if they remained there.

There is no reason to assume Nettles retreated further and further back - the whole Burned Men stuff began after the Regency era, apparently, and she may have just died an early death along with her dragon, considering the miserable surroundings they lived in. Chances that Sheepstealer would have thrived in those snowy mountains, especially in winter, is not very likely.

Also, of course, dragons eat a lot, so of course the clansmen would realize when their animals (and perhaps even their people) fell victim to the dragon's hunger. That alone could have caused some clan - or a coalition of clans - to slay Sheepstealer and make Nettles their slave-wife. Something like that would then also not be a secret but rather the men in question would boast about.

8 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

I don't think I have ignored any details.

Of course you do. Since nobody in-universe actually ever says any of the dragons I call Targaryen dragons outlived the so-called last dragon.

8 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

But that's what happened to Sheepstealer, and probably Cannibal as well.  They vanished.  I think you are the one who is refusing to accept the details given by George.

That the Cannibal vanished is so far not confirmed by George. He will have to revisit him in FaB II or some other text because as far Gyldayn is concerned he still sits in his lair on Dragonstone at the end of the book.

As you may not have noticed - I'm not saying the dragons have to be confirmed to be dead. I'm saying people need more reason to believe they are dead then them just 'disappearing' or them knowing the dragon and his rider settled at a particular location in the Mountains of the Moon. Because if there were still rumors and stories being spread about the fire witch and her dragon in those mountains after the so-called last dragon died in 153 AC then the so-called last dragon would simply not be viewed as the so-called last dragon.

Right?

This doesn't have to be conclusive proof - simply more evidence pointing towards the dragon in question being dead than we have so far.

And to be clear: There are some ways how especially the Cannibal could have survived. But those basically all involve him either hiding on Dragonstone in some collapsed or otherwise inaccessible place in a dormant state or at some other place in such a state. Because an actual dragon living anywhere in Westeros couldn't possibly hide for long. He simply would eat too much. People would eventually either see him flying about or they would realize that a dragon must be living in the vicinity because of the traces he left, the livestock and game he killed and fed upon, etc.

George himself has Gyldayn point that out with Balerion and Aerea - but fails to address this dragon in the room when Alyssa, Jaehaerys, and Alysanne hid not only themselves but also two pretty large dragons at some magical place (which may have been Storm's End the entire time).

8 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

It will probably say he vanished after the war.  Because that's what TWOIAF says.  We'll probably get a detail or two more, but I expect it overall to be consistent.

TWoIaF's Targaryen history is drawn from FaB, and FaB doesn't say the Cannibal has vanished. Even if that is something George told Elio and Linda when they made the dragon sidebar there ... it has to be revisited in FaB, just as the stories of Silverwing and Morning have to be continued and concluded. Not just because of the so-called last dragon but because we want to know what happened to them.

If the dragons did indeed just vanish then people would simply not conclude they are dead - just as nobody thought Balerion and Aerea flying away meant they were dead. And just proclaiming a dragon dead would be a stupid and dangerous thing to do considering their life expectancy is very long and we have no clue how long they can live.

Also, of course, just because a book written before FaB II claims something doesn't mean it will turn out to be true. George changed certain details given in TWoIaF when writing FaB - the names and birth orders of the children of Jaehaerys and Alysanne, the name of Rogar Baratheon, the way how peace with the Faith was made, etc.

[Ring3r]

Not a chance that Cannibal is still alive IMO.  While there may be differing lifespans between breeds of dragon, the smallfolk of Dragonstone claim that Cannibal lived there prior to the Targaryens - making him already extremely old.  Even if that's not true, he was definitely there WHILE Balerion was there, so they were at least of similar ages.  Balerion died of old age - I can't see a different breed of dragon having double his life-span.

[Gilbert Green]

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I know that quote, you know ... if you want to believe what some smallfolk claim then I trust it you also believe Sansa can turn into a winged wolf.

You are adopting the persona of a pompous elitist sneering at the smallfolk.  But that isn't an argument. 

The smallfolk might be wrong, but then again, so might the maesters.  And even if the maesters are right and the Cannibal is younger than some smallfolk think, it doesn't mean he is a descendant of the 5 dragons brought by Targaryens.  Dragonstone was a Valyrian outpost for almost 200 years before the Targs arrived, and Cannibal could be descended from a dragon of this earlier period.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

This is a nice anecdote, but scarcely something to base knowledge about the Cannibal on.

If we don't know, then the possibilities are open.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You do understandthat seeing/finding a rotten dragon carcass doesn't qualify as the sighting of Sheepstealer and his rider, right? Such a sighting would involve a living dragon and a living rider, whilst a carcass might indicate that it was the dragon known as Sheepstealer ... or not, depending how well-preserved it is.

The usual phrasing for what you have in mind is "never seen again alive", or something of the sort.  This foreshadows the possibility of being eventually found dead.  But Gyldayne does not use such language.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Some archmaester might deem the valley hidden, etc. ... but not somebody actually going to Mountains of the Moon and asking the Burned Men where to find it. Because they know, right?

How should I know if they know?  Maybe she moved.  She moved after Ser Robert Rowan found her.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Those people do have a connection with the dragon, that's why they sent their youths to him.

You were just sneering at the smallfolk, and now you are treating travelers tales as the infallible word of God.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And, of course, if outsiders were willing to pay in coin and other favors they would tell them where to go. Especially if they came there in force.

Funny how no-one has been able to solve the mountain clan problem for the last 5,000 years.  But you think it's easy peasy.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Rich princes also do offer coin and weapons and favors. Do you honestly think those wildlings cannot be bribed when Tyrion did just that - and he used empty promises.

What good are the bribes going to do?  Either Nettles and her Dragon will fight, or flee.  Either way, the expedition will fail.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We have no idea why exactly she fled - but presumably because her dragon had killed people and the men would kill her and him if they remained there.

There is no reason to assume Nettles retreated further and further back -

You're the one claiming she will inevitably be found if she doesn't move  And she obviously does not want to be found.  Sounds like a potential reason to me.   Me, I don't know.  Seems to me GRRM left all kinds of possibilities open.

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

the whole Burned Men stuff began after the Regency era, apparently, and she may have just died an early death along with her dragon, considering the miserable surroundings they lived in.

She's presumably dead by now.  But dragons live longer than people

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Chances that Sheepstealer would have thrived in those snowy mountains, especially in winter, is not very likely.

Says you.  But you are not GRRM. 

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

This doesn't have to be conclusive proof - simply more evidence pointing towards the dragon in question being dead than we have so far.

If there is no "conclusive proof", then the dragon in question "could be" alive.  Which is the question of this thread.  Nobody is claiming to know anything for certain.

[Gilbert Green]

2 hours ago, Ring3r said:

Not a chance that Cannibal is still alive IMO.  While there may be differing lifespans between breeds of dragon, the smallfolk of Dragonstone claim that Cannibal lived there prior to the Targaryens - making him already extremely old.  Even if that's not true, he was definitely there WHILE Balerion was there, so they were at least of similar ages.  Balerion died of old age - I can't see a different breed of dragon having double his life-span.

If the Cannibal was alive before the Targs came, he'd be over 414 years old.  Which is pretty old based on what we know.  But, as Jorah points out, we actually know very little.  All the Targaryen dragons died in war, and the only dragon we know of who ever died of "old age" was Balerion.

And we cannot really be certain how old Balerion was. 

Also, the Cannibal might not be that old.  The maesters don't think he was that old.

[Ring3r]

17 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

If the Cannibal was alive before the Targs came, he'd be over 414 years old.  Which is pretty old based on what we know.  But, as Jorah points out, we actually know very little.  All the Targaryen dragons died in war, and the only dragon we know of who ever died of "old age" was Balerion.

And we cannot really be certain how old Balerion was. 

Also, the Cannibal might not be that old.  The maesters don't think he was that old.

I generally agree that the maesters are correct and Cannibal was not as old as claimed.  Likely he was of an age with Balerion.

 

Balerion died at around 200 years old.  I don't think it's realistic to expect Cannibal to double that.  He's dead.

That doesn't mean we can't get some epic stories involving him.  The Dunk & Egg stories, in particular, could be used to produce some epic stuff about him at the end of his life.  The fandom certainly has seized on him and want some content.

Apart from that though, I really don't see how he could be involved in anything else.  He's my favorite dragon, so I'm biased towards more of him, but not at the expense of the overall story.

[Gilbert Green]

10 minutes ago, Ring3r said:

I generally agree that the maesters are correct and Cannibal was not as old as claimed.  Likely he was of an age with Balerion.

If he was as old as Balerion, the smallfolk would be correct.  If the maesters are correct, he is younger than Balerion

10 minutes ago, Ring3r said:

Balerion died at around 200 years old.  I don't think it's realistic to expect Cannibal to double that.  He's dead.

If GRRM ends up telling me that 500 years is possible, I will believe him.   I don't think we get to talk of "realism" when it comes to fantasy animals like dragons.  Especially when we are trying to extrapolate from a single example.   And the biggest dragon in history is not likely to be a fair guide to the maximum life expectancy of dragons.   Being oversize tends to come with health problems.  That's how it works with other animals anyway.

And who knows how cold weather affects them.  They might not grow as fast, or die as soon.

I'm not saying he is or is not alive.  I guess the odds are against it.  But to say there is "no chance" of his being alive is saying too much.

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

3 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

If he was as old as Balerion, the smallfolk would be correct.  If the maesters are correct, he is younger than Balerion

If GRRM ends up telling me that 500 years is possible, I will believe him.   I don't think we get to talk of "realism" when it comes to fantasy animals like dragons.  Especially when we are trying to extrapolate from a single example.   And the biggest dragon in history is not likely to be a fair guide to the maximum life expectancy of dragons.   Being oversize tends to come with health problems.  That's how it works with other animals anyway.

And who knows how cold weather affects them.  They might not grow as fast, or die as soon.

I'm not saying he is or is not alive.  I guess the odds are against it.  But to say there is "no chance" of his being alive is saying too much.

Wasn’t Balerion also wounded from his trip with Aerea. I seem to recall his wound never healed and he spent the rest of his life sick

[Lord Varys]

15 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

You are adopting the persona of a pompous elitist sneering at the smallfolk.  But that isn't an argument.

I'm pointing out that by the time Gyldayn is writing his history it is quite unlikely that some smallfolk (not even explicitly Dragonstonian smallfolk) actually do have accurate knowledge about the origins of the Cannibal.

Even less so in light of the fact that early on during the reign of Jaehaerys I - when Dragonstone features prominently in the story and the dragons on Dragonstone multiply - nobody so ever as mentions the Cannibal. If already centuries old at that time he would have been already very large and considering his diet he would have been a real danger to Rhaena and Aerea and their dragons. But he is not so much as mentioned.

It strikes one as more likely that all the wild dragons either are dragons who left the dragon yards and dragon pits of the citadel of Dragonstone during the reign of Rhaena - or dragons descended from some of those. The Cannibal would be the oldest of those, Sheepstealer a younger specimen, and Grey Ghost the youngest.

The Cannibal's attacks on the hatcheries, etc. would also likely only have happened after both Vhagar and Balerion were no longer housed on Dragonstone - and perhaps stopped later when Silverwing and Vermithor were housed on Dragonstone after the death of their riders.

15 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

The usual phrasing for what you have in mind is "never seen again alive", or something of the sort.  This foreshadows the possibility of being eventually found dead.  But Gyldayne does not use such language.

That doesn't matter, since FaB II has yet to be written.

15 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

How should I know if they know?  Maybe she moved.  She moved after Ser Robert Rowan found her.

Strictly speaking, she flew away then - but this doesn't mean she didn't return to that place after the army was gone.

15 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

You were just sneering at the smallfolk, and now you are treating travelers tales as the infallible word of God.

Funny how no-one has been able to solve the mountain clan problem for the last 5,000 years.  But you think it's easy peasy.

I'm sure you realize that eradicating an entire people living in very large mountains isn't exactly the same thing as asking the people living there to point you to the place where a dragon and his rider live.

15 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

What good are the bribes going to do?  Either Nettles and her Dragon will fight, or flee.  Either way, the expedition will fail.

It would depend on what the expedition wants to do. They could kill the dragon and his rider. They could just kill the rider and the prince accompanying them could then mount the dragon himself.

15 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

You're the one claiming she will inevitably be found if she doesn't move  And she obviously does not want to be found.  Sounds like a potential reason to me.   Me, I don't know.  Seems to me GRRM left all kinds of possibilities open.

Even if she didn't want to be found - she was, in a sense, found. The future Burned Men found her and they did talk about her to the point that knowledge of her was still available for Gyldayn centuries later.

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Even less so in light of the fact that early on during the reign of Jaehaerys I - when Dragonstone features prominently in the story and the dragons on Dragonstone multiply - nobody so ever as mentions the Cannibal. If already centuries old at that time he would have been already very large and considering his diet he would have been a real danger to Rhaena and Aerea and their dragons. But he is not so much as mentioned.

You're making an argument from silence, and the text isn't even silent.

Sheepstealer was hatched when King Jaehaerys was young.  See text.  The Cannibal is older (and larger) than Sheepstealer.  See text.  There is no dispute about this.  

The only dispute is whether the Cannibal was born 150+ years earlier, and dates back to a time before Aenar arrived on Dragonstone in 114 BC.

The dispute is not even about whether there were dragons on Dragonstone before Aenar.  The dispute is only about whether the Cannibal was one of those early dragons.

The latter question (dragons on Dragonstone before Aenar) is never explicitly addressed one way or another.  But Valyrians had been there since about 306 BC.  And it seems already to have been called "Dragonstone" when Aenar moved there.