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Vaella Targaryen/What is the state of the Aegon Blackfyre theory these days?


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I looked and found nothing, what are the prevailing theories on what happened to Vaella Targaryen? After all, I think she is the only unaccounted for Targaryen in recent history. Is it possible she survived and had children (an example I could think of would be...is there any possibility Aegon the 6th could actually be her decedent for example?) Just wondering if there are any theories about this. 

A not for those who don't know who the heck I am talking about, Vaella Targaryen is the daughter of Daeron (although in the books I think they might have said Valarr instead). Daeron was older brother to Maester Aemon and Aegon the 5th. 

Also since I mentioned Aegon the 6th, I think it is universally accepted that he is a fake, but what is the best theory on who he is. I like, or perhaps hope, he is a Blackfyre through Serra (Illyrio's second wife who had silver hair), and just wondering if that is still a popular theory. 

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2 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

I looked and found nothing, what are the prevailing theories on what happened to Vaella Targaryen?

My guess would be that "simple minded" means a bit more severe than "not the brightest bulb on the planet.   She was what we would now call "developmentally disabled" to an unspecified degree of severity.  She was likely treated as a defective, kept out of the public eye, and not encouraged to marry or otherwise reproduce.  I don't think she has any connection to Young Griff.

2 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Also since I mentioned Aegon the 6th, I think it is universally accepted that he is a fake, but what is the best theory on who he is. I like, or perhaps hope, he is a Blackfyre through Serra (Illyrio's second wife who had silver hair), and just wondering if that is still a popular theory. 

I am conducting a poll on that issue at the moment.  Please vote.

My own answer:

Lemore acts like a mom to YG, and identifies as a "merchant's daughter".  So while I think the Illyrio + Serra guess is on the right track, I think they are the grandparents of YG and not his parents.

This hypothesis allows Varys and Serra to be one and the same, since Serra can move to KL and become a spymaster there after Serra's daughter grows up and gets married.

Who else, then, might Lemore be?  Mellario of Norvos of course.  She is the only other character we know who, for mysterious reasons, spends most of her time in Northern Essos.  And Tyrion rendezvoused with Lemore & Co. halfway between Norvos and Pentos on the Norvos-to-Pentos Valyrian road.

We also learn in the World Book that Norvosi Noblewomen customarily shave their heads and wear wigs.  A useful custom, it would seem, for hiding Valyrian/Blackfyre traits.

Who, then, is Young Griff?  Mellario bore 3 children to Doran, and only one is the right age to pass for Aegon -- the boy born as Quentyn Martell.

But who, then, is the Frog Martell who was sent instead to the Yronwoods to pay Doran's "blood price" after Mellario threw her tantrum when Aegon and Quentyn were both aged 3?  That question, if you've followed me this far, should not be hard to answer.  As Dany jokingly prophesied, the Frog will become the enchanted prince.  Or, as HOTU propesied, Aegon is TPTWP, and his is the song of ice and fire; and is one of the three heads of the dragon.  Dany will be, as HOTU hinted, one of the other heads.

Doran, Mellario, Varys and Illyrio are one big half-Blackfyre family, and they are collectively plotting to put their son/grandson on the Iron Throne.

 

 

Edited by Gilbert Green
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Both Daeron's Vaella as well as Aerion's Maegor are unaccounted for.

In light of the fact that simple Daella and simple Jaehaera were married off it is not unlikely that Vaella found a husband, too. She was the only child of King Maekar's eldest son, so actually a great match.

I actually get the feeling she is more like Daella and Gael as she is described as sweet and simple, which doesn't really indicate a serious mental disability - Jaehaera may have suffered from a real mental disorder in addition to her traumatic experiences.

Prince Aegon is likely a descendant of some tangential Blackfyre, and more likely through Illyrio himself than the Serra woman. I used to favor the notion that he is descended from Calla Blackfyre and Bittersteel, but George apparently confirmed that Bittersteel had no children. So now the more subtle link would be a descent from one of Daemon Blackfyre's daughters who may have married outside the family ... but there is also the possibility of a link through the nameless sixth or seventh son of Daemon, or through children of Aenys Blackfyre, younger siblings of Daemon III (i.e. descendants of Haegon), and, of course, a link from Maelys the Monstrous or his poor cousin, Daemon (IV).

My preferred take on thing would be that the link doesn't involve any of the last prominent Blackfyres (i.e. the family of Maelys or the fourth Daemon) but rather one of the more obscure guys which might have been passed over or shoved aside before the Third or Fourth Rebellion. Aegon V would have likely kept a close eye on the successors of Daemon III in the wake of the Fourth Rebellion.

A Targaryen link there is even less likely as any descendants of Vaella or Maegor Targaryen would have never been forgotten or overlooked. If Illyrio or Varys were the grandsons of Maegor or Vaella folks in KL would know. Hell, even Viserys III would have known.

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It's interesting that TWoIaF states in the section on Aerys that "the tragedies of Aegon the Unlikely's reign had trimmed House Targaryen down to a pair of lonely branches".

Assuming this is accurate and not merely an editorial error, this must surely mean that Maegor was still alive (aged about 30) at the start of Aerys's reign, because the only other Targs we know about at that point (Aerys, Rhaella and Rhaegar) comprise a single branch, and nobody else would be in a position to further the Targaryen name. And indeed it's entirely conceivable that Maegor could still be alive at the time of the novels: he's only a couple of years older than Barristan.

As Lord Varys says above though, it's unlikely that anyone would just have forgotten about a potential male heir of house Targaryen. He could I guess have been overlooked as an apparent irrelevance after twenty years of Aerys, with Aerys's having three male heirs available and Maegor's being a cousin twice removed of Rhaegar, especially given that Maegor had been passed over for the throne previously.

And he might have been simple-minded, or have left Westeros early in Aerys's reign to the point that he wasn't considered relevant... but even then it seems unlikely he'd have been forgotten about so thoroughly as never to be mentioned at all in the novels.

And if Maegor wandered off after the start of Aerys's reign, that's too late to have a tangible familial relationship to Varys or to Illyrio, unless they are a lot younger than they appear. Unless they are bastards of his who were born before then and nobody knew about, which is possible but it all seems a little far-fetched.

Edited by Alester Florent
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1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

It's interesting that TWoIaF states in the section on Aerys that "the tragedies of Aegon the Unlikely's reign had trimmed House Targaryen down to a pair of lonely branches".

Assuming this is accurate and not merely an editorial error, this must surely mean that Maegor was still alive (aged about 30) at the start of Aerys's reign, because the only other Targs we know about at that point (Aerys, Rhaella and Rhaegar) comprise a single branch, and nobody else would be in a position to further the Targaryen name. And indeed it's entirely conceivable that Maegor could still be alive at the time of the novels: he's only a couple of years older than Barristan.

There are some nice theories suggesting the Tattered Prince might be Maegor. It is funny to think that, but things do not quite add up. Best take I've seen or come up with myself is that a widowed Daenora Targaryen, Maegor's mother, ended up leaving Westeros with her infant son in the wake of the Great Council, (eventually) marrying into one of the Pentoshi noble families from whom the Princes of Pentos are chosen.

That we don't know the name of the guy certainly indicates there might be some important backstory to him.

The two lonely branches can either be the descendants of Jaehaerys II and Shaera and those of Rhaelle and Ormund Baratheon (Steffon and sons) ... or the former and any children for Duncan's and Jenny's who might have survived Summerhall.

They would have been Targaryens, too, even if they had given up their claims to the throne. TWoIaF is very careful to not attach a number to Egg's grandchildren - only Aerys and Rhaella are mentioned, but it is not confirmed that the marriage of Duncan and Jenny was childless nor that any children they might have had died at Summerhall. The only confirmation we have is that Rhaegar would have been Egg's first great-grandchild.

If Duncan and Jenny had any children, then chances are not so bad that we have already met them or their children without knowing who they are. Daughters might have married into other families, and grandchildren would then go by different names, too.

The argument that we would have been heard who they were has little merit in context, as we have still to hear the true/full story of Rhaegar and Lyanna ... which is arguably a very central part of the backstory. Not to mention Jon's true parentage, etc.

If Prince Maegor were still alive and/or ever married and had children they are likely to be away from Westeros these days, though, as his claim would have been too strong for Robert to overlook. He and any sons he may have made would have been the perfect figureheads for the Targaryen loyalists, being older than little Viserys in 283 AC.

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

And if Maegor wandered off after the start of Aerys's reign, that's too late to have a tangible familial relationship to Varys or to Illyrio, unless they are a lot younger than they appear. Unless they are bastards of his who were born before then and nobody knew about, which is possible but it all seems a little far-fetched.

By my reckoning Maegor would actually have to be the father or Varys/Illyrio, it would be a very big stretch to have him as their grandfather. Varys, especially, must have been born around the time of Summerhall at the latest. He came to court around 280 AC or so, and it is hard to swallow that a sixteen-year-old eunuch, say, was asked to sit on the Small Council. He must have been 20+ at least when he moved to KL.

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3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In light of the fact that simple Daella and simple Jaehaera were married off it is not unlikely that Vaella found a husband, too. She was the only child of King Maekar's eldest son, so actually a great match.

There are degrees of "simple" or "simple-minded", and the latter might have the stronger connotation.  For instance Daella could read, albeit haltingly, whereas Hodor cannot even talk.

Not saying you are necessarily wrong.  Vaella could have married, and her line somehow come to an end anyhow.

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6 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

There are degrees of "simple" or "simple-minded", and the latter might have the stronger connotation.  For instance Daella could read, albeit haltingly, whereas Hodor cannot even talk.

Not saying you are necessarily wrong.  Vaella could have married, and her line somehow come to an end anyhow.

No need for her hypothetical line to have come to an end. We know Egg's sisters had children and one of them is likely the Targaryen-Tarth link TWoIaF hints at. They are still around. Ditto the Martells, Plumms, Penroses, Velaryons.

Even if Vaella were more like Hodor than Daella - and that is unlikely as nobody ever described Hodor as 'sweet' nor Vaella as a simpleton or lackwit - she is still a royal princess. Somebody would care for her blood and the access to the royal family her hand would bring. Gael and Jaehaera being simple didn't stop them from having sex/being married.

Mormont uses 'feeble-witted' do describe Daeron's daughter, but he is no good source on things as he actually thinks Aerys I was married to a non-existent sister.

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14 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

It's interesting that TWoIaF states in the section on Aerys that "the tragedies of Aegon the Unlikely's reign had trimmed House Targaryen down to a pair of lonely branches".

Assuming this is accurate and not merely an editorial error, this must surely mean that Maegor was still alive (aged about 30) at the start of Aerys's reign, because the only other Targs we know about at that point (Aerys, Rhaella and Rhaegar) comprise a single branch, and nobody else would be in a position to further the Targaryen name. And indeed it's entirely conceivable that Maegor could still be alive at the time of the novels: he's only a couple of years older than Barristan.

There are several possible branches of House Targaryen, given the World of Ice and Fire is written from an in world perspective, it almost certainly is referring to the ruling Targaryens and the Baratheon’s in this case (in my opinion).

The line of Aerys and Rhaella.

The Baratheons, descended from Egg’s daughter.

Egg had two sisters who seemingly both had children.

The Martels also have Targaryen heritage from the first Daenerys.

It’s unclear if Duncan and Jeyne had children.

The baby Maegor may have survived.

Vaella’s line may survive if she had children.

If Aemon had a child, as he seems to describe, that son/line may also exist.

The Blackfyres.

Any child of any of the great bastards, legitimized by Aegon the Unworthy.

Bloodraven.

Edited by Mourning Star
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Another interesting question is "who married Daella and Rhae (Egg'sisters)?" The general consensus on Daella is that she was forced to marry Lord Tarth (Selwyn grandfather)  for cover Dunk pregnancy (Brienne is a confirmed descendant of Dunk). Rhae is another question. We don't know anything on her, except that she have had children. My speculation is that Rhae married Lord Velaryon and she was Lucerys grandmother.

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1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

There are several possible branches of House Targaryen, given the World of Ice and Fire is written from an in world perspective, it almost certainly is referring to the ruling Targaryens and the Baratheon’s in this case (in my opinion).

The line of Aerys and Rhaella.

The Baratheons, descended from Egg’s daughter.

Egg had two sisters who seemingly both had children.

The Martels also have Targaryen heritage from the first Daenerys.

It’s unclear if Duncan and Jeyne had children.

The baby Maegor may have survived.

Vaella’s line may survive if she had children.

If Aemon had a child, as he seems to describe, that son/line may also exist.

The Blackfyres.

Any child of any of the great bastards, legitimized by Aegon the Unworthy.

Bloodraven.

The Baratheons, Martells, and the children of Vaella, Rhae and Daella are not branches of House Targaryen, because they don't bear the Targaryen name. I doubt Aemon had a child, and if he did surely we'd know about him. Bloodraven had disappeared by this point without known descendants, Aegor would surely have been disinherited as a traitor (and is dead with no known descendants in any case), and Viserys Plumm is, well, a Plumm, not a confirmed Great Bastard, likewise Balerion Otherys. We don't know of any other male GBs. And the Blackfyres were by this time apparently extinct.

Maegor and Duncan seem the most likely progenitors of the second branch.

Of course, it could just be clumsily worded and mean the Baratheons.

Edited by Alester Florent
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57 minutes ago, Dragonbane said:

for Maegor, I guess that Aegon V send him in exile short after Maegor have his sixteenth nameday. Some years later Maegor have a son, Varys, and a daughter, Serra. in many fanfiction I have see postulated a Maegor Vaella marriage, but personally I consider this unlikely.

Why send Maegor abroad where he can build an independent support base and foment trouble like the Blackfyres? Surely better to keep him close and keep an eye on him. If Aegon really wanted him out of the way, I suspect he'd have sent him to the Wall like Bloodraven.

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7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No need for her hypothetical line to have come to an end.

We are discussing possibilities.  Hence, her line my have come to an end.  I guess that's why you are calling it a "hypothetical" line.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Even if Vaella were more like Hodor than Daella - and that is unlikely as nobody ever described Hodor as 'sweet' nor Vaella as a simpleton or lackwit - she is still a royal princess.

Hodor and Vaella are both described as "simple-minded".  That does not prove that Vaella is as disabled as Hodor but it certainly puts it in the range of possibility.

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1 hour ago, Dragonbane said:

Rhae is another question. We don't know anything on her, except that she have had children. My speculation is that Rhae married Lord Velaryon and she was Lucerys grandmother.

I would suggest that she is Old Nan.

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

I doubt Aemon had a child, and if he did surely we'd know about him.

I would suggest that Aemon’s son was Craster, making Jon’s baby swap horribly ironic, as Gilly and her child would have Targaryen King’s Blood.

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

Of course, it could just be clumsily worded and mean the Baratheons.

Ya I understand your gripe here, but it’s the best explanation for what we know at this point, in my opinion.

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1 hour ago, Dragonbane said:

Another interesting question is "who married Daella and Rhae (Egg'sisters)?" The general consensus on Daella is that she was forced to marry Lord Tarth (Selwyn grandfather)  for cover Dunk pregnancy (Brienne is a confirmed descendant of Dunk). Rhae is another question. We don't know anything on her, except that she have had children. My speculation is that Rhae married Lord Velaryon and she was Lucerys grandmother.

I actually prefer my own take of Dunk and Daella marrying each other, with their only child then ending up becoming Selwyn's mother. It seems as if Egg-Betha only became a thing after the Third Rebellion, and if Dunk & Egg played a crucial role defeating the Blackfyres there both Dunk and Egg could have gotten permission for a love match there.

There is also some ugly plot potential for Daella. She is Egg's older sister, so if he ends up spurning her eventually, dissolving their betrothal, Aerion might see his chance to claim a sister-wife. It feels natural to assume that Dunk's own relationship with Aerion only gets worse and him being able to marry one of Aerion's sister (to save her from him) would be quite an interesting plot there.

We have to keep in mind that Dunk is first mentioned as a KG during the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion and right now he has no motivation or inclination whatsoever to join the KG. Dunk wants a woman, he wants to have sex, he wants to have a wife and children one day. Perhaps we could see him joining the KG while Aerys I is still king and his heir Prince Aelor. But when Maekar is heir and eventually king Dunk is the last guy to join the KG as this would actually force him to (potentially) protect fucking Aerion ... and to eventually serve a King Daeron III - which would also fuck him up.

In that sense there is a good chance that Dunk and Daella marry around the same time as Egg and Betha, settle down somewhere, have a child, and then Daella eventually dies (hopefully not in childbirth). Dunk is crushed and eventually finds a new sense in life as a Kingsguard, perhaps only after the Great Council chose Aegon V. Would be a more colorful biography for Dunk than just hedge knight, sellsword, household knight, Kingsguard. Also, of course, Dunk could actually be made a landed knight or even a lord to kind of smooth over such a match.

Having Rhae end up with a Lord Velaryon feels like a good take. It would simplify things and it is odd that there were apparently no matches made between the Targaryens and Alyn's sons and grandsons.

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

Of course, it could just be clumsily worded and mean the Baratheons.

That is actually the likeliest take there as Yandel writes with Robert's eventual rise to the throne in mind - and he presents Robert as the Targaryen through the female line that he is, not as some random lord with no claim to the Iron Throne who just took it by force. When Aerys II became king Steffon Baratheon was very close to the throne, perhaps even second in line, if we assume that both Queen Shaera (who may have still been alive) and Queen Rhaella would not put forth their own claims.

Steffon and eventually Robert are spares for Aerys II until Viserys is born.

1 hour ago, Dragonbane said:

for Maegor, I guess that Aegon V send him in exile short after Maegor have his sixteenth nameday. Some years later Maegor have a son, Varys, and a daughter, Serra. in many fanfiction I have see postulated a Maegor Vaella marriage, but personally I consider this unlikely.

That is very unlikely as they are ten years apart. Also, if Maegor were to go abroad I don't think he would be exiled but rather being dragged there by his mother as a child. Egg has every reason to keep Maegor close to ensure he does not become a figurehead for his enemies, be they unruly Westerosi lords or Blackfyres.

A funny fate for Maegor would be if he remained in Westeros and became the first and only Targaryen so far who became High Septon. He could have then died like in the later years of Aerys II, perhaps being the High Septon who married Rhaegar and Elia.

10 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

We are discussing possibilities.  Hence, her line my have come to an end.  I guess that's why you are calling it a "hypothetical" line.

You indicated that Vaella's hypothetical line would have come to an end ... but there is no narrative reason to assume this. We know there are lots of female Targaryen branches around - there might even be more than the ones I mentioned as all of Garmund-Rhaena's daughter could have married into noble houses and they could all have scores of descendants during the main series, spread throughout dozens of houses. 

10 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Hodor and Vaella are both described as "simple-minded".  That does not prove that Vaella is as disabled as Hodor but it certainly puts it in the range of possibility.

'Simple-minded' is an adjective only Yandel (i.e. Linda and Ran) uses for Vaella, not George. He has Mormont call her 'feeble-witted' as I mentioned already, and that adjective is also used by Cersei to refer to Lollys Stokeworth. 'Feeble-minded' we also see used by Kyle the Cat to refer to Prince Rhaegel as well as Tyrion use for the two-headed girl in Yezzan's menagerie.

So, yeah, there is a spectrum there, but it is pretty broad, allowing us not to conclude that Vaella's mental state was particularly bad. It is not impossible it was ... but I'd reserve judgment on that until we see her. And, as I said, regardless of her mental state she is a royal princess and thus might have been married off even if she was more like Hodor or Patchface.

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4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You indicated that Vaella's hypothetical line would have come to an end ...

No.  I indicated it COULD have come to an end, for all kinds of reasons. 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 ... but there is no narrative reason to assume this.

There is no narrative reason to assume the contrary either.  A surviving Danaerys/Martell line is mentioned in the text.  A surviving Vaella line is not.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

'Simple-minded' is an adjective only Yandel (i.e. Linda and Ran) uses for Vaella, not George. He has Mormont call her 'feeble-witted' as I mentioned already, and that adjective is also used by Cersei to refer to Lollys Stokeworth. 'Feeble-minded' we also see used by Kyle the Cat to refer to Prince Rhaegel as well as Tyrion use for the two-headed girl in Yezzan's menagerie.

So, yeah, there is a spectrum there, but it is pretty broad, allowing us not to conclude that Vaella's mental state was particularly bad. It is not impossible it was ... but I'd reserve judgment on that until we see her. And, as I said, regardless of her mental state she is a royal princess and thus might have been married off even if she was more like Hodor or Patchface.

I thought that "simple-minded" might possibly have stronger connotations than "simple".  But it is hard to see a distinction between "simple-minded" and "feeble-witted". 

But yeah, all these terms and phrases are broad enough that all possibilities are open.

Edited by Gilbert Green
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4 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

No.  I indicated it COULD have come to an end, for all kinds of reasons.

Your wording indicated it was a given that no line of hers exist. Which we just don't know. Hell, she could still be alive in the series as she was only born in 222 AC. 

4 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

There is no narrative reason to assume the contrary either.  A surviving Danaerys/Martell line is mentioned in the text.  A surviving Vaella line is not.

I'm not assuming it, I'm merely pointing out that until we don't hear anything to the contrary this is on the table. Arguably the Targaryen-Penroses (and all the people descended from them) have had no role in the story so far. For the Martells it is a small plot point, for the Baratheons a bigger point, and for Brown Ben Plumm, who might become a dragonrider, a larger one still. For the Tarths it is completely irrelevant so far.

4 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

I thought that "simple-minded" might possibly have stronger connotations than "simple".  But it is hard to see a distinction between "simple-minded" and "feeble-witted". 

Well, since Rhaegel and Lollys are in that department it is clear the term is used broadly. Also, Gael and Jaehaera both are not in the Hodor or Patches department, either. The term is clearly also meant and used as an insult, a way to dismiss people, not a diagnosis.

And if we think Jaehaera her state of mind was a concern when her claim to be ruling monarch comes up ... but it was okay that this 'simpleton' was made queen consort, so Vaella shouldn't have (much) trouble in the marriage department.#

Still, though, not saying she ever married, had children, or even lived to an age to be married off. We just don't know.

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18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Your wording indicated it was a given that no line of hers exist.

Even if that were true (which it is not) the matter has long since been clarified.  Don't make an argument where there is none.

18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Hell, she could still be alive in the series as she was only born in 222 AC.

If alive, she is long past childbearing age.  The relevant question is, whether dead or alive, she has living children.  If not, her line is dead, even if she is not.

18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm merely pointing out that until we don't hear anything to the contrary this is on the table.

Then we agree.  Both alternatives are on the table.  Like I said.

18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Still, though, not saying she ever married, had children, or even lived to an age to be married off. We just don't know.

Sure.  That's what I said.

Edited by Gilbert Green
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11 hours ago, Dragonbane said:

Another interesting question is "who married Daella and Rhae (Egg'sisters)?" The general consensus on Daella is that she was forced to marry Lord Tarth (Selwyn grandfather)  for cover Dunk pregnancy (Brienne is a confirmed descendant of Dunk). Rhae is another question. We don't know anything on her, except that she have had children. My speculation is that Rhae married Lord Velaryon and she was Lucerys grandmother.

This hypothesis only illustrates how unlikely it is that Brienne is Dunk's descendant.

Brienne is NOT a "confirmed descendant of Dunk".   A bored, tired, GRRM saying "eventually all will be revealed in time" while signing books is NOT a confirmation of a fan question, however loaded with assumptions that fan question may be.

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15 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

This hypothesis only illustrates how unlikely it is that Brienne is Dunk's descendant.

Brienne is NOT a "confirmed descendant of Dunk".   A bored, tired, GRRM saying "eventually all will be revealed in time" while signing books is NOT a confirmation of a fan question, however loaded with assumptions that fan question may be.

I disagree, Brienne remember a shield with Dunk's emblem that she see at Tarth, it's a strong clue.

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