How good of an admiral do you think that Paxter Redwyne is ?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

As the Lord of the Arbor and head of House Redwyne, Paxter Redwyne is the current admiral of the Redwyne Fleet who has led his fleet to blocade Storm's End during Robert's Rebellion, supposedly assisted Stannis' fleet during the Greyjoy Rebellion and initially led the siege of Dragonstone during AFFC. Currently he's sailing toward the Shield Isles to battle the Ironborn led by Euron Greyjoy, who are deprived of a good portion of the Iron Fleet that has sailed to Essos under Victarion's captainship, and are threatening Oldtown.

Based on Paxter's previous war efforts and participation in the current war and previous ones, his personality and reputation, how competent of an admiral do you think that he is ? How good and dangerous of a foe do you think that he's going to be to the Ironborn led by Euron in TWOW ?

[Alester Florent]

In Westeros, given that there's no gunpowder (and no wildfire in this battle either), fleet tactics are going to be extremely limited, with naval battles fought like land battles, except on boats. Line astern formations, and line of battle tactics, won't exist, or at least won't be useful if they are, rather ships will probably largely engage line abreast en masse. Combat will be hand-to-hand, with a bit of archery, and battles will be decided by a combination of numbers (allowing outflanking), skill of sailors (to execute manoeuvres at very close quarters), proportion of sailors to soldiers in the fleet (you need sailors to engage on favourable terms, but you need soldiers to win the engagement), and the ability of individual captains to spot and respond to opportunities and threats. Even things like the weather gage are, not irrelevant exactly, but much less relevant than in the gunpowder era.

In fact, even in the age of sail gunpowder era, the admiral had a very limited ability to direct the fleet once battle was joined: even the great admirals like Blake, d'Estaing, Tromp, Nelson etc. were essentially limited in large fleet actions to determining the formation and giving the signal to generally engage or to withdraw: where a moment of brilliance occurred that swung a battle it was often at the level of individual captains. With only a handful of ships on each side, more control was possible, but we're talking about a big fleet action here.

Moreover, grand fleet actions are not at all common, so the ability to gain experience in them is sharply limited. The most experienced admirals in Westeros - Victarion, Euron and Stannis - have fought in only two or three each, and that is probably an unusually high number compared to previous generations.

The role of the admiral is therefore principally at the operational level: ensuring that (a) the fleet is well-supplied and well-maintained, (b) the fleet has an optimal ratio of specialist fighters to specialist sailors, (c) the fleet maintains good order and arrives on the scene at full strength rather than getting strung out and defeated in detail.

We kind of see this in fact in the battle for the Shield Islands that we see in the book: Victarion, the overall commander in that engagement, is fighting on the front lines rather than directing other ships. I don't think this is an indictment against Victarion's command ability: rather, he can't really affect anything that's going on except on his own ship, so he's using his skillset in the best possible way - making a direct contribution to the combat and helping maintain morale by doing so.

So I think Paxter's tactical nous may actually be largely irrelevant to the engagement against Euron. He seems to be at least adequate at the core jobs of admiralling: managing the fleet between engagements, and given that the Redwynes are a naval family we would expect him to be good at it. But once battle is joined that doesn't count for a lot. We might speculate on how many casualties were taken among the fleet's soldiery during the storming of Dragonstone and whether that will leave them undermanned during the battle with Euron, but I doubt that will be the decisive factor. My suspicion is that Euron has some kind of "secret weapon", either the ability to conjur a storm to scatter the Redwyne fleet, or to unleash in the thick of battle, and that there's nothing Paxter will be able to do about it.

[Gilbert Green]

The fools who accepted Euron's poisoned gifts, but refused to follow him to Slaver's Bay, will get clobbered when Paxter shows up.  Paxter will be adequate to the task, but will have been diverted to the wrong side of Westeros when other things start happening.

Euron is not going to meet the Redwyne fleet.   Whence this persistent fan delusion???????

[Gilbert Green]

On 12/28/2023 at 2:15 PM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Currently he's sailing toward the Shield Isles to battle the Ironborn led by Euron Greyjoy, who are deprived of a good portion of the Iron Fleet that has sailed to Essos under Victarion's captainship, and are threatening Oldtown.

Yes, he is heading towards Oldtown and onwards to the Shields.  But not to face the Ironborn led by Euron.  He is going to face the Ironborn who refused to be led by Euron.  And Euron will not be with them.

On 12/28/2023 at 2:15 PM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

How good and dangerous of a foe do you think that he's going to be to the Ironborn led by Euron in TWOW ?

He will be no threat at all to the Ironborn led by Euron.  Because the Ironborn led by Euron will be in Slavers' Bay  And even if they proceed to Westeros, the Redwyne Fleet will be on the wrong side of it.

On 12/28/2023 at 3:15 PM, Alester Florent said:

So I think Paxter's tactical nous may actually be largely irrelevant to the engagement against Euron.

Absolutely true (but for the wrong reasons).

On 12/28/2023 at 3:15 PM, Alester Florent said:

My suspicion is that Euron has some kind of "secret weapon", either the ability to conjur a storm to scatter the Redwyne fleet, or to unleash in the thick of battle, and that there's nothing Paxter will be able to do about it.

I too would love to see Euron do something bizarre, like summon Krakens or a storm or both to pull down ships.   But if he does that, he'll be doing it in Slavers' Bay.

[Alester Florent]

Last time we saw Euron on the page, he was hanging out on Oakenshield, and the Aeron sample chapter has him near the Arbor, on or around the Isle of Pigs, exactly the area that the Redwyne fleet is heading for. Where have you got the idea he's in, or on his way to, Slaver's Bay?

[SaffronLady]

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

Last time we saw Euron on the page, he was hanging out on Oakenshield, and the Aeron sample chapter has him near the Arbor, on or around the Isle of Pigs, exactly the area that the Redwyne fleet is heading for. Where have you got the idea he's in, or on his way to, Slaver's Bay?

I think GG is thinking about Vic's fleet, not Euron's personal command.

[Gilbert Green]

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Last time we saw Euron on the page, he was hanging out on Oakenshield,

That was long ago.  Falia wasn't even showing yet.  Well, she's sure showing now.  

And he's the guy with the fast ship, and the red storm in his sails, summoned by blood magic.

He does not care about the Shields.  He is explicit about that.  He means to take the credit for conquering them, and leave others to take the blame for losing them.  This plan logically involves not being around when they are retaken.

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Last time we saw Euron on the page, he was hanging out on Oakenshield, and the Aeron sample chapter has him near the Arbor, on or around the Isle of Pigs, exactly the area that the Redwyne fleet is heading for.

His subordinates believe they are on an island somewhere off the Arbor.  That might even be true, assuming Euron has not lied to them.  That's like saying they are on an island somewhere off Scotland.  You talk like you have no idea of the size of Westerosi maps.

The  Redwyne fleet  has no idea what island Euron is on  And even if Paxter did somehow know what island Euron was on (who's going to tell him?  Euron killed everyone), Euron has already left it.

And Euron is the guy who can sail out of sight of land.   They can't find him.  And even if by chance they could find him, they can't catch him.

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Where have you got the idea he's in, or on his way to, Slaver's Bay?

- Where Euron announces that there are 3 dragons in the  World and he knows where to find them.

- Where he tells Aeron, imprisoned in the hold of his ship, that they are sailing for "dragons".

- Where Euron's blue eye turns black with rage when the Ironborn on the Shields refuse to follow him to Slavers Bay.

- Where Euron tricks Victarion to taking the Iron Fleet to Slavers Bay by pretending he is not going himself; causing dumb-as-rocks Victarion to imagine he will be able to get the glory, the bride and the dragons all for himself; thereby agreeing to a plan he would not have otherwise agreed to.  Because Gosh!  Euron would never LIE, would he?

- Where Euron explains that it is philosophy to take credit for victories (he is presumably planning a victory at Slavers Bay), and leave others (for instance the fools at the Shields), to take the blame for defeats.

- Where Moqorro has a vision that Euron is coming.

- Where we learn that Euron knows or guesses that the Redwyne fleet is coming; and where fans speculate that Euron will defeat the Redwyne fleet by mega-magic, because it is otherwise ridiculous to suppose that the Ironborn could defeat the combined naval might of Westeros after sending the Iron Fleet to Slavers' Bay.  Are those really the only two options?  Mega-magic or suicide?  Is it not just barely possible that Euron is NOT planning to meet the Redwyne fleet?

- I mean he never SAYS he is going to meet the Redwyne fleet.  And by normal logic it would be a ridiculous thing for him to do.  So let me turn the question around on you:

Where have you got the idea he is on his way to meet the Redwyne fleet?  Does he, or his underlings, ever actually say such a thing?

If he can already defeat the combined naval might of Westeros with mega-magic, what does he want dragons for?  Why does he keep talking about dragons?

 

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, SaffronLady said:

I think GG is thinking about Vic's fleet, not Euron's personal command.

Euron is King.  When he reaches Slavers' Bay, he will assume command. 

[Alester Florent]

4 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

That was long ago.  Falia wasn't even showing yet.  Well, she's sure showing now.  

And he's the guy with the fast ship, and the red storm in his sails, summoned by blood magic.

He does not care about the Shields.  He is explicit about that.  He means to take the credit for conquering them, and leave others to take the blame for losing them.  This plan logically involves not being around when they are retaken.

His subordinates believe they are on an island somewhere off the Arbor.  That might even be true, assuming Euron has not lied to them.  That's like saying they are on an island somewhere off Scotland.  You talk like you have no idea of the size of Westerosi maps.

Aeron's sample chapter is set on the Isle of Pigs, which is pretty specifically located. It's very close to the eastern tip of the Arbor. That's the last time we see Euron and he's just left when the chapter ends.

Unless you believe that Euron's subordinates, the greatest seafarers in Westeros, are all such incompetent navigators that they haven't realised they're nowhere near the Arbor... in which case it's curious that the inhabitants of the island clearly also believe that they're subject to the Redwynes.

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The  Redwyne fleet  has no idea what island Euron is on  And even if Paxter did somehow know what island Euron was on (who's going to tell him?  Euron killed everyone), Euron has already left it.

Euron has several ships with him (not all of which are as fast as the Silence) and the Redwynes have a large fleet which is actively searching for him. They can cover a wide area, so, while he might be able to evade them, there is a reasonable chance they'll spot at least one of his vessels as they head for the Shields unless he sails a long way south to avoid them. If he continues going east, he'll run into them.

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Where have you got the idea he is on his way to meet the Redwyne fleet?  Does he, or his underlings, ever actually say such a thing?

I don't think he is necessarily intending to confront the Redwyne fleet, although I don't think he's intimidated by the prospect. But the Redwyne fleet is making all haste to confront him, apparently now rounding Dorne, and while he's not eager to get caught between two forces, he's also not exactly hastening to leave the area. As you've pointed out, it's taken several months for him to make it from Oakenshield to the Isle of Pigs, based on Falia's pregnancy (given that she is just starting to show in the sample chapter, I'd guess she was about 4 months pregnant at that point, but could be a bit longer). So a confrontation with the Redwynes at some point seems likely, and even if it isn't strictly speaking his plan he must have planned for that eventuality if he's half the villain we think he is.

That he would suddenly turbocharge his expedition to imminently pop up in Slaver's Bay wouldn't be consistent with his campaign to date and would show an odd contempt for geography not dissimilar to that displayed in the show (and you say that I have no sense of the scale of maps in this setting!) I would expect that if he does show up in person in Slaver's Bay in the near future, it'll be through some sort of magical shenanigans allowing bilocation or, say, travel by glass candle - but it'll be just him, not his fleet.

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If he can already defeat the combined naval might of Westeros with mega-magic, what does he want dragons for?  Why does he keep talking about dragons?

So that he can expand his campaign onto land, perhaps. He's said he wants the Iron Throne. And dragons have a magical significance of their own: perhaps he plans to sacrifice one of them, or something.

[SaffronLady]

2 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

travel by glass candle

Oh no we're not doing Prehistoric Park time travel shenanigans in ASOIAF please...

[Alester Florent]

19 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

Oh no we're not doing Prehistoric Park time travel shenanigans in ASOIAF please...

I'm not a fan. But I'd swallow magic teleportation or the like more easily than I would Euron somehow making it from the Isle of Pigs to Slaver's Bay in time to have an impact on coming events without magic.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

I don't believe that Euron is heading toward Essos, in Essos as Daario Naharis or someone else in disguise.

[frenin]

Competent enough, he's done nothing to embarass himself and given the different approach with Loras when it came to Dragonstone, he seems methodical enough.

[Gilbert Green]

12 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Aeron's sample chapter is set on the Isle of Pigs, ...

Source?  

I suppose you are referring to the fact that the Red Oarsman compares the inhabitants to pigs.  Though he also seems to compare the Redwynes, Hightowers and Tyrells to pigs. 

Still, it is a reasonable theory that this vague reference is a clue they are on the Isle of Pigs.  Still does not tell us where the Isle of Pigs is.

12 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

the Isle of Pigs, which is pretty specifically located. It's very close to the eastern tip of the Arbor.

Source?

Still, I would suppose the further East they are the better, if their destination is Slavers Bay.

12 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

That's the last time we see Euron and he's just left when the chapter ends.

That's true at least.  Wherever it is, he is not there any more.

The situation, as Euron's underlings describe it to Aeron, is that the approach of the Redwyne Fleet has emboldened the Hightowers, who are sending ships out to try to catch them by surprise.   So they are leaving.  Not only do they not want to wait for the Redwyne Fleet; they do not even want to wait for the Hightowers.

But this does imply that the Hightowers, at least, have some idea where they were.  But it is too late.  Euron's fleet knows they are coming, and they are gone.

12 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Unless you believe that Euron's subordinates, the greatest seafarers in Westeros, are all such incompetent navigators that they haven't realised they're nowhere near the Arbor ...

I don't know about that one way or the other.

Euron is the navigator.  And he navigates by with the aid of blood magic and rides the storm.  The others presumably follow him.

You don't know much about medieval navigation if you think it is impossible for a navigator, however competent, to not be sure where he is.

I don't think it hurts to remember that Euron is a liar.  Still, it is reasonable to put some trust Euron's underlings as a source of information.  But it does not get you where you want to go.

12 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

... in which case it's curious that the inhabitants of the island clearly also believe that they're subject to the Redwynes.

I don't know the source for this clear belief.  They are quoted as saying "oink".    And maybe they mentioned the Tyrells and the Hightowers and the Tyrells when they were saying "oink".  Unless the intent is to also quote the latter as saying "oink" when killed.

And again, Euron's fleet is not even there.  He is gone.   They do not want to be "caught in the rear". 

12 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Euron has several ships with him (not all of which are as fast as the Silence) and the Redwynes have a large fleet which is actively searching for him.

This might matter in a chase where they are in sight of each other, and sailing on the same winds.  But on a macro scale, a slow merchant cog with ideal winds, will, on average, move faster than fast ship that is battling adverse winds.

And the situation is still on a macro scale.  As the chapter ends, Euron's fleet is "well out to sea" (which I take to mean out of sight of land); and the Redwyne Fleet is some distance away, maybe hundreds of miles away.

If by some chance (how exactly?) the Redwyne Fleet manages to find Euron, Euron can just sail away and leave the slow merchant cogs behind.  Alternatively, if the Redwyne fleet divides itself too small, Euron can just turn on his pursuers and destroy them.

But that's a distant hypothetical.  There is no reason to believe the Redwyne fleet can find Euron's , no matter how small they break up their forces in the interest of a wide search.  The ocean is just too big.

12 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

They can cover a wide area, so, while he might be able to evade them, there is a reasonable chance they'll spot at least one of his vessels as they head for the Shields unless he sails a long way south to avoid them. If he continues going east, he'll run into them.

Dude.  You have no idea how big oceans are.  These maps of Westeros are large scale maps.

Yes, Euron can sail south.  Exactly.  And a mere 3 miles south will take him beyond the horizon of any ship that might otherwise spot him.  And nothing prevents him from sailing 30 miles south, or 60 miles south, or 90 miles south, before he heads out East.

I suggest you pull out many sheets of graph paper.  You will need to tape or paste multiple sheets together to make a giant map.  Have each square on the graph paper represent 5 or 6 miles square, which roughly represents the radius of visibility of a ship (or, if you like, a convoy of 10 ships) roughly in the middle of that square, assuming IDEAL daytime visibility in the absence of any eerie red haze or any other weather phenomenon.   Then draw a map of of the ocean and adjacent coastlines on the South of Westeros.  Then count the number of ocean squares, keeping in mind that two ships will have to be roughly within the same square to have any reasonable hope of sighting each other.  I don't care how many ships you think Paxter Redwyne has.  He does not have nearly enough ships to spread out over so gargantuan  a range of ocean.

The Redwyne fleet is going to hug the coastline.  Euron is going to do his usual trick of sailing out of sight of land.  They are going to miss each other.  It would be almost impossible for them not to miss each other.

If they both try to hug the coastline, then sure, they have a fair chance of meeting.  But Euron, at least, is not likely to do that.

12 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

I don't think he is necessarily intending to confront the Redwyne fleet, although I don't think he's intimidated by the prospect. But the Redwyne fleet is making all haste to confront him, apparently now rounding Dorne, and while he's not eager to get caught between two forces, he's also not exactly hastening to leave the area.

He has already hastened to leave the area.  When the Foresaken chapter ends, he has already sailed "well out to sea", which I guess puts him out of sight of land, and out of sight of any Hightower ships coming to "take him in the rear".   And ships do not leave footprints in the ocean, for bloodhounds to follow.  And, again, he has done this for the immediate purpose of evading the Hightower ships, and not to evade the Redwyne Fleet, which is still relatively far away.

And, assuming you are right in guessing that the isle they have just left is on the east side of the Arbor, then sailing "well out to sea" most likely means sailing East.  Which could just be a ruse to evade the Hightower ships.  But it also happens to be the direction of Slavers' Bay.

12 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

As you've pointed out, it's taken several months for him to make it from Oakenshield to the Isle of Pigs, based on Falia's pregnancy (given that she is just starting to show in the sample chapter, I'd guess she was about 4 months pregnant at that point, but could be a bit longer).

I never said it took Euron 4 months to get from the Shields to the Isle of Pigs.  We actually have no idea what he has been doing in that time.  One witness we had was Victarion.  And Victarion lost track of Euron close to the beginning of those 4 months when he headed towards slavers bay.  And Victarion was delayed by adverse winds, calm winds, and the need to raid for supplies that he would not have needed had the winds been more favorable.

Our remaining witness is Aeron.  And he is disoriented and has lost track of time.  All Aeron knows is that he was transferred from the Silence hold to  an Oakenshield dungeon, and left there for an unknown amount of time, only to be eventually put back in the Silence, held there for an unknown amount of time, then transferred to a new dungeon apparently near the Arbor, then finally tied to the prow of the Silence.  Was Euron sitting on his ass that whole time?  Or did he go somewhere and return?  Aeron saw him only on rare occasions.

You cannot use those 4 months to measure how fast Euron can sail.

12 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

That he would suddenly turbocharge his expedition to imminently pop up in Slaver's Bay wouldn't be consistent with his campaign to date and would show an odd contempt for geography not dissimilar to that displayed in the show (and you say that I have no sense of the scale of maps in this setting!) I would expect that if he does show up in person in Slaver's Bay in the near future, it'll be through some sort of magical shenanigans allowing bilocation or, say, travel by glass candle - but it'll be just him, not his fleet.

When Moqorro saw Euron coming, he was sailing, not bilocating via glass candle.

There is magic in the series, as it is a fantasy.  We have hints that Euron can "always have fair winds and never be becalmed".  We have seen Mel propel Stannis' fleet to the Wall in record time, using similar blood magic.   We haven't seen people bilocate via glass candles yet, though.  I'd say teleportation is rather high form of magic; whereas sailing fast with fair winds, at speeds that are actually possible at least for short periods (but extended in this case by magic), is a relatively low form of magic.

At a steady 12 knots it takes only about 2 weeks to sail all the way from the Iron Islands to Slavers Bay.   That's according to my calculations.  At slower speeds (assuming he waits for the slow merchant cogs) he can sail from the Arbor to Slavers' Bay in a similar time; less if he races ahead of the cogs, to await their later arrival.

What do your calculations say?   What do your words about "odd contempt for geography" even mean?

 

 

 

 

[Gilbert Green]

12 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

I'm not a fan. But I'd swallow magic teleportation or the like more easily than I would Euron somehow making it from the Isle of Pigs to Slaver's Bay in time to have an impact on coming events without magic.

Why though?  A steady 12 knots, or even a steady 7 knots if he decides to wait for the cogs, will get him there in under 2 weeks.  And Moquorro sees him sailing on a sea of blood.

[Gilbert Green]

12 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

I don't think he is necessarily intending to confront the Redwyne fleet, ....

These words imply a certain level of open-mindedness, almost as though you are willing to consider the possibility that Euron is not heading to do battle with the Redwyne Fleet and/or attack Oldtown.  So let me tell you a (to me) funny story.

GRRM left some early drafts of FEAST FOR CROWS at the Cushing Library.  Not too long ago, some fans had a look at these drafts and analyzed what they saw and noted differences from current texts.

One of the things they found was that, in early drafts, Euron was taking Aeron to Slavers' Bay.

And the reaction of these fans was:  Wow, that's totally different from the current drafts in which Euron is taking Aeron to do battle with the Redwyne Fleet and/or attack Oldtown.

Obviously, I found this hilarious.  I have NEVER believed that Euron was heading to battle the Redwyne Fleet and/or attack Oldtown.  I have ALWAYS believed that Slavers' Bay was his intended destination.  To me, the early drafts only confirmed what I already believed.  And the main difference between the drafts is that the author played his cards a bit closer to his chest, and did not make it absolutely clear (though he still left many many clues) that Euron was heading to Slavers' Bay.

This fan reaction was, to me, a perfect illustration of the stubbornness of a fan delusion.

So, what do you think?  Am I entirely wrong to imagine that my opinion has been confirmed by the Cushing Library drafts?  Is it possible (even if you don't like it) that Euron is sailing to Slavers' Bay, exactly as Moqorro's vision seems to say he is?

[Gilbert Green]

Anyone remember this exchange? 

TYRION:  So those are fires of the Fourteen Flames we're seeing, reflected on the clouds?

MOQORRO:  Fourteen or fourteen thousand. What man dares count them? It is not wise for mortals to look too deeply at those fires, my friend. Those are the fires of god's own wrath, and no human flame can match them. We are small creatures, men.

TYRION:  Some smaller than others.

TYRION:  Does our captain mean to test the curse?

MOQORRO:  Our captain would prefer to be fifty leagues farther out to sea, well away from that accursed shore, but I have commanded him to steer the shortest course. Others seek Daenerys too.

TYRION:  Have you seen these others in your fires?

MOQORRO:  Only their shadows.  One most of all. A tall and twisted thing with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing on a sea of blood.

As I read these lines, Moquorro is in a rush to reach Dany, because he knows others are seeking her too, and he wants to get there first.  He is in such a rush that he has commanded his captain to skirt the Smoking Sea (which even Moqorro considers unwise, under normal circumstances), in the hopes that he can arrive before these "others" do.  And the person seeking her that he is most worried about, is Euron, who he has seen in his fires, sailing, presumably to Dany, on a sea of blood.

Anyone want to argue for a different interpretation?

[Alester Florent]

6 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Source?  

I suppose you are referring to the fact that the Red Oarsman compares the inhabitants to pigs.  Though he also seems to compare the Redwynes, Hightowers and Tyrells to pigs. 

Still, it is a reasonable theory that this vague reference is a clue they are on the Isle of Pigs.  Still does not tell us where the Isle of Pigs is.

Source?

I don't think that's him comparing the Redwynes etc. to pigs, that's his impression of the people he's strung up, with the names being the threats that were "oinked" at them.

There are a number of maps around which label the Isle of Pigs, albeit these are probably at least partially speculative. This one, for instance. More importantly, the map in the Lands of Ice and Fire collection shows a collection of small islands that are all very close to the Arbor and then no others anywhere near it. Given that the Isle of Pigs is cited in AFfC as being close to the Arbor, it must be one of those. There are no other islands marked that would be part of the Reach, and it's clear that the island in the Aeron chapter is part of the Reach.

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I don't know the source for this clear belief.  They are quoted as saying "oink".    And maybe they mentioned the Tyrells and the Hightowers and the Tyrells when they were saying "oink".  Unless the intent is to also quote the latter as saying "oink" when killed.

OK, let's look at the relevant passage in its entirety:

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“The lord that held this castle, with his kin.” The voice belonged to Torwold Browntooth, one of his brother’s captains, a creature near as vile as the Crow’s Eye himself. “Pigs,” said another vile creature, the one they called the Red Oarsman. “This was their isle. A rock, just off the Arbor. They dared oink threats at us. Redwyne, oink. Hightower, oink. Tyrell, oink oink oink! So we sent them squealing down to hell.”

So what the Red Oarsman tells us is:

• They're on an island just off the Arbor
• The inhabitants were "pigs"
• The inhabitants threatened them with retribution from the three major houses of the Reach

Now, it just so happens that there's an island just off the Arbor, which we know (from AFfC) that Euron has captured, that's called the Isle of Pigs. If the island where this conversation takes place is any other island, it's a remarkable coincidence.

And none of this conversation makes any sense if they're not just off the Arbor. The Red Oarsman and Torwold are not Euron's crew; they're captains of their own ships. They'll have a rough idea where they are, at least enough to know whether they're actually "just off" the Arbor or rather further away. And the inhabitants apparently cited Reach lords as their protectors, which only makes sense if they're actually in the Reach or, at a bit of a stretch, in Dorne. It certainly doesn't make sense for them to be anywhere that isn't Westeros. So the furthest east that Euron can be at this point is the arm of Dorne, which is still a helluva long way from Slaver's Bay. And it makes much more sense for him to be on the Isle of Pigs, to the point that I think any assumption to the contrary is just being wilfully difficult.

And even if we assume that Euron is lying, and Torwold and the Red Oarsman are too, why? What do they gain from doing so? Euron may be devious, but he's also a gloater. Aeron isn't in a position to stop him. Why lie to him at this point when he can rub his nose in the evil brilliance of Euron Greyjoy. It's out of character for Euron, and for the author, it would just be messing with the reader for the sake of it.

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The situation, as Euron's underlings describe it to Aeron, is that the approach of the Redwyne Fleet has emboldened the Hightowers, who are sending ships out to try to catch them by surprise.   So they are leaving.  Not only do they not want to wait for the Redwyne Fleet; they do not even want to wait for the Hightowers.

Right. That manoeuvre however only makes sense if they are somewhere on or off the coast between Oldtown and Sunspear, otherwise the Reach navies wouldn't be on either side of them. And the Arbor archipelago has the only islands marked on any map along that stretch of coast.

I think there are a couple of ways of reading that passage: it could be that they are trying to avoid battle altogether, or rather that they are simply trying to avoid being caught on two fronts. Either is valid. But I think it's a big stretch from "Euron is avoiding battle with the Reach fleets" to "Euron is heading for Slaver's Bay": if that was his intention, why attack the Reach at all? Why not just sail straight for Meereen with whatever ships would follow him rather than waste time besieging a series of islands and attracting hostile attention?

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That's true at least.  Wherever it is, he is not there any more.

But he's only just left as of the Aeron chapter.

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Euron is the navigator.  And he navigates by with the aid of blood magic and rides the storm.  The others presumably follow him.

You don't know much about medieval navigation if you think it is impossible for a navigator, however competent, to not be sure where he is.

I don't think it hurts to remember that Euron is a liar.  Still, it is reasonable to put some trust Euron's underlings as a source of information.  But it does not get you where you want to go.

All the ships will have their own navigators. They will follow Euron's flag, sure, but the Ironborn are used to sailing independently and they will need to have a rough idea of where they are in case the fleet gets scattered. Euron might be able to pull the wool over some of their eyes, but all of his captains? I doubt it. It is conceptually possible that they're out on longitude, given that that's the harder dimension to measure - latitude would be far harder to disguise - and on that basis could be as far east as Volantis, but the captains would surely notice that (a) it was taking them a hell of a lot longer to get anywhere than it should and (b) the islands they're sacking are not Westerosi.

Euron is a liar, and he can tell his captains that the sky is orange, but he can't stop them from looking up and noticing that it isn't.

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And again, Euron's fleet is not even there.  He is gone.   They do not want to be "caught in the rear". 

As above, they've only just left, as of the Aeron sample chapter.

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Dude.  You have no idea how big oceans are.  These maps of Westeros are large scale maps.

Yes, Euron can sail south.  Exactly.  And a mere 3 miles south will take him beyond the horizon of any ship that might otherwise spot him, etc.

At sea level, line of sight to the horizon is about 3 miles. But neither the observer nor what they're looking for is actually at sea level: they're on top of a mast, looking for a sail. The range-spotting capability is significantly more than that.

If it were as difficult for ships to find each other on the high seas as you suggest, most of the naval engagements in the Age of Sail would never have happened.

And while Euron can sail south before heading east, conceivably for 30 days or whatever, does he have the supplies to sustain that? Are all the ships in his fleet seaworthy enough to manage it, for long enough to maintain that distance for the whole journey to east of Dorne?

On the one hand you say that I clearly have no idea about scale when it comes just to Westeros, and on the other you seem to think it reasonable for Euron to nitroboost his way halfway across Essos to Meereen in what is, in logistical terms, no time at all, which I find strange.

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He has already hastened to leave the area.  When the Foresaken chapter ends, he has already sailed "well out to sea", which I guess puts him out of sight of land

Which by your reckoning is about 3 miles (yes, I disagree) so hardly any distance at all; in a ship like the Silence at full sail that's what, about an hour's travel?

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And, assuming you are right in guessing that the isle they have just left is on the east side of the Arbor, then sailing "well out to sea" most likely means sailing East.  Which could just be a ruse to evade the Hightower ships.  But it also happens to be the direction of Slavers' Bay.

East is also the direction that the Redwynes are coming from.

 

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I never said it took Euron 4 months to get from the Shields to the Isle of Pigs.  We actually have no idea what he has been doing in that time.  One witness we had was Victarion.  And Victarion lost track of Euron close to the beginning of those 4 months when he headed towards slavers bay.  And Victarion was delayed by adverse winds, calm winds, and the need to raid for supplies that he would not have needed had the winds been more favorable.

Our remaining witness is Aeron.  And he is disoriented and has lost track of time.  All Aeron knows is that he was transferred from the Silence hold to  an Oakenshield dungeon, and left there for an unknown amount of time, only to be eventually put back in the Silence, held there for an unknown amount of time, then transferred to a new dungeon apparently near the Arbor, then finally tied to the prow of the Silence.  Was Euron sitting on his ass that whole time?  Or did he go somewhere and return?  Aeron saw him only on rare occasions.

You cannot use those 4 months to measure how fast Euron can sail.

 

Oh sure, Euron can sail fairly quickly when he wants to, but I don't think he's likely to be able to sail significantly faster than Victarion, and Victarion has an approx. 4 month head start.

Falia wasn't pregnant with Euron's child before he arrived on Oakenshield, and she's visibly pregnant when Aeron sees her after they leave the Isle of Pigs. Even if he knocks her up the night he arrives, given the timescales of human pregnancy, that's a minimum of about 3 months, and more likely 4, between Euron's sending Vic to Slaver's Bay and Euron's leaving the Isle of Pigs. That's a tracker independent of Aeron's own disorientation. Now, Euron could have been doing whatever he wanted in the meantime, but we know where he was at the start and where he was at the end, and he doesn't seem to have been to Slaver's Bay and back in the meantime.

 

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What do your calculations say?   What do your words about "odd contempt for geography" even mean?

It comes back to the scale of things that you refer to. For characters to disappear in one place and pop up in another having travelled by non-magical means makes a mockery of the distances involved. This was a major problem in later seasons of the show, often involving Euron as it happens, where characters could sail from Pyke to Meereen and back on a whim, ravens could fly from the Wall to King's Landing and back in the space of no more than an hour or two, armies and natives apparently teleported from Vaes Dothrak to Meereen to Highgarden to King's Landing to Winterfell to Casterly Rock at will, etc.

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So, what do you think?  Am I entirely wrong to imagine that my opinion has been confirmed by the Cushing Library drafts?  Is it possible (even if you don't like it) that Euron is sailing to Slavers' Bay, exactly as Moqorro's vision seems to say he is?

Entirely wrong? I wouldn't go that far, but the drafts differ substantively in a number of respects from the book we actually got, and that was twenty years ago. I don't think we can make any assumptions about what will happen in TWoW based on what's in the draft. After all, if GRRM hadn't changed his mind on this stuff to at least some extent, we'd have got it in AFfC or ADwD in the first place.

[Gilbert Green]

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

There are a number of maps around which label the Isle of Pigs, albeit these are probably at least partially speculative. This one, for instance.

Might be speculative.  But for the sake of argument, let's assume it is a canon source.  And let's assume they are indeed on the Isle of Pigs, as depicted on this map, in the Foresaken chapter.  Like I said, it is at the very least a good theory.

They can still be headed for Slavers' Bay.  Why not?

And take a good look at the SCALE of that map.  That's a heap ton of square miles of open ocean that Euron just sailed out into.

And it is not as though the Hightowers or the Redwyne fleet expect them to head towards Slaver's Bay.  It is not as though they have access to all of the clues that we have.

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

OK, let's look at the relevant passage in its entirety:

So what the Red Oarsman tells us is:

• They're on an island just off the Arbor
• The inhabitants were "pigs"
• The inhabitants threatened them with retribution from the three major houses of the Reach

Now, it just so happens that there's an island just off the Arbor, which we know (from AFfC) that Euron has captured, that's called the Isle of Pigs. If the island where this conversation takes place is any other island, it's a remarkable coincidence.

The argument does not seam airtight.  But fine.  Let's assume for the sake of argument they are on the Isle of Pigs.  At the very least it is a good theory.

They can still be headed for Slaver's Bay.  Why not?

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

And none of this conversation makes any sense if they're not just off the Arbor. The Red Oarsman and Torwold are not Euron's crew; they're captains of their own ships. They'll have a rough idea where they are, at least enough to know whether they're actually "just off" the Arbor or rather further away. And the inhabitants apparently cited Reach lords as their protectors, which only makes sense if they're actually in the Reach or, at a bit of a stretch, in Dorne. It certainly doesn't make sense for them to be anywhere that isn't Westeros. So the furthest east that Euron can be at this point is the arm of Dorne, which is still a helluva long way from Slaver's Bay. And it makes much more sense for him to be on the Isle of Pigs, to the point that I think any assumption to the contrary is just being wilfully difficult.

Well, now I am being accused of being "wilfully difficult".   But I am really just imaginative enough to imagine Euron being clever enough to flummox his own captains about where they are or where they are going.  None of your counterarguments convince me that this is impossible.

But fine.  Let me stop being "wilfully difficult".  Let us agree, for the sake of argument, that Euron's core followers -- those who Aeron calls his "creatures" -- know exactly what isle they just left (the Isle of Pigs, say) and exactly where they are headed.

Why, assuming all of the above, cannot they be headed towards Slaver's Bay?

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

But I think it's a big stretch from "Euron is avoiding battle with the Reach fleets" to "Euron is heading for Slaver's Bay":

I never made such an argument.  You are ignoring my actual reasons for believing he is headed for Slavers Bay.

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

if that was his intention, why attack the Reach at all? Why not just sail straight for Meereen with whatever ships would follow him rather than waste time besieging a series of islands and attracting hostile attention?

Well, he needs priests for his blood magic, and other blood sacrifices, he needs supplies for his trip (you were complaining about that, remember?), and he needs extra ships to ferry hordes of murdering raping Dothraki to Westeros so he can take the Iron Throne.

But apart form that, why do you assume that Euron is the one doing most of the raiding?  Victarion did plenty of raiding on the way through.  And when Euron's blue eye turned black with rage, it was because the Ironborn he wanted to follow him to Slavers Bay wanted to stay behind and raid the Reach.  Remember?

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Right. That manoeuvre however only makes sense if they are somewhere on or off the coast between Oldtown and Sunspear, otherwise the Reach navies wouldn't be on either side of them.

Seems to me that maneuver (sailing out of sight of land) makes sense no matter where they are.

But again, fine.  Let us assume they are "somewhere between Oldtown and Sunspear".  That is pretty much where I would expect them to be if headed for Slavers' Bay.   And that is a massive shitload of square miles of ocean.

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

At sea level, line of sight to the horizon is about 3 miles. But neither the observer nor what they're looking for is actually at sea level: they're on top of a mast, looking for a sail. The range-spotting capability is significantly more than that.

Fine.  Use 10 mile squares when you make your map, representing an average daytime visibility radius of 5 or 6 miles.  I doubt that's more realistic, but knock yourself out.  You'll still have too many squares for the Redwyne Fleet to cover, even if they had a clue that Euron was headed for Slavers' Bay and had any desire whatsoever to stop him from doing this.  Which of course they do not.

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

If it were as difficult for ships to find each other on the high seas as you suggest, most of the naval engagements in the Age of Sail would never have happened.

Meaningless words.  In the Age of Sail, a shitload of potential engagements did NOT happen, because the ocean is big and ships just passed each other by.  And this is NOT the "Age of Sail".   It is an age when Euron sails out of sight of land for long periods, and almost nobody else does, including, most likely, Paxter Redwyne.  At least not without good reason.  And Paxter Redwyne does not have a good reason.  It is not as though Paxter Redwyne has any reason to suspect that Euron is headed for Slaver's Bay.  Nor would he be likely able to find him in such a vast ocean even if he did suspect.

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

And while Euron can sail south before heading east, conceivably for 30 days or whatever, does he have the supplies to sustain that?

Why the hell not?   You think a ship the size of the Silence cannot hold 30 days of supplies?  And at a steady 12 knots he can go all the way to Slavers Bay in a week or so.  And at a steady 6 knots he can make it in 2 weeks or so.    And he's the guy that can ride the storm via blood magic.   And it is not even as though he need go the entire distance without landing.  All he need to is bypass the Redwyne Fleet.  Which is hugging the coast anyway.

Sure.  Victarion had to raid for supplies.  But he has taken, it seems, all of 4 months.   Reread his chapter about how long he spent becalmed and/or fighting adverse winds.  And he is not riding the storm via blood magic.   Not, at least, until he takes Moqorro on board and Moqorro starts burning people alive.  Nor does he take shortcuts through the Smoking Sea the way Euron apparently can.

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Oh sure, Euron can sail fairly quickly when he wants to, but I don't think he's likely to be able to sail significantly faster than Victarion, and Victarion has an approx. 4 month head start.

I think there are plenty of clues that Euron can travel faster than Victarion did.  And pointing out that the journey seemingly took Victarion all of 4 months, only emphasizes this possibility.  Victarion is not the one riding the storm via blood magic.  Not, at least, until he meets Moqorro and burns those poor women alive. 

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Falia wasn't pregnant with Euron's child before he arrived on Oakenshield, and she's visibly pregnant when Aeron sees her after they leave the Isle of Pigs. Even if he knocks her up the night he arrives, given the timescales of human pregnancy, that's a minimum of about 3 months, and more likely 4, between Euron's sending Vic to Slaver's Bay and Euron's leaving the Isle of Pigs. That's a tracker independent of Aeron's own disorientation. Now, Euron could have been doing whatever he wanted in the meantime, but we know where he was at the start and where he was at the end, and he doesn't seem to have been to Slaver's Bay and back in the meantime.

All I said is that we don't know where he has been, or what he has been doing, in those three to four months.

And as for his not being to Slavers Bay, he does seem to pick up a suit of Valyrian Steel armor that he was not wearing at the Kingsmoot for whatever reason .  Seems that would have been a good time to wear it if he really wanted to impress.  But perhaps he had not picked it up yet.

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

t comes back to the scale of things that you refer to. For characters to disappear in one place and pop up in another having travelled by non-magical means makes a mockery of the distances involved.

I asked for a rational analysis, and all I got were words.  Fine.  Don't explain.  Just say things.  Maybe some will mistake that for an argument.   Also, I never talked about the show.  Why are you?

 

5 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Entirely wrong? I wouldn't go that far, but the drafts differ substantively in a number of respects from the book we actually got, and that was twenty years ago. I don't think we can make any assumptions about what will happen in TWoW based on what's in the draft. After all, if GRRM hadn't changed his mind on this stuff to at least some extent, we'd have got it in AFfC or ADwD in the first place.

Well, this argument started with the assumption that Euron was headed to face the Redwyne Fleet, and me challenging that assumption.

We are now at the point where you agree that he was actually headed for Slavers Bay at one point, but demanding proof that GRRM did not change his mind.

Okay fine.  I guess I cannot prove that he did not, or will not, change his mind.

I guess your opinion is that he ought to change his mind, because the idea is unpopular.

And whatever his plan was, when he came up with the idea of Euron in the first place, never mind all that.

Moqorro's vision of Euron approaching slavers bay was not 20 years ago.  It was too long ago to be sure, but it was the last book.  So the evidence that he has changed his mind is virtually nil.  But never mind that. 

 

[Gilbert Green]

On 12/30/2023 at 4:05 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

I don't believe that Euron is heading toward Essos, in Essos as Daario Naharis or someone else in disguise.

I gather that "Daario = Euron" is a hated theory.  And "Euron is going to Slaver's Bay" is guilty by association.  Tribalistic fan logic?

But of course Euron could be going to Slaver's Bay, even if he is not Daario.  He keeps saying he is going, so why not?