AFTER Harry: Vale Line of Succession?

[Hippocras]

Current Lord: Robert Arryn (Sweet Robin)

Heir: Harry Hardyng

Next in line if not ignored: Timett of the Burned Men (or some other nameless person of same clan)
     - Side Note: I am curious which Riverlands House the kidnapped daughter of Alys Arryn and Elys Waynwood was meant to marry in to.

Then comes.....

Assuming Jasper Arryn had a sister (or aunt), who married into a Riverlands House:
      - Why Riverlands? because of the very high number of more recent matches various Vale Houses have made with Riverlands Houses.
         There is likely a line of succession logic behind it. The descendants of the first match are likely to be found in several Riverlands Houses by this point.
      - So probably Jasper's sister, because of the allegiance of Donnel Arryn who was Jasper's predecessor as Lord Arryn, married into a family that also strongly supported Daeron II. Main contenders in the Riverlands are Houses Blackwood, Tully, Darry, Lothston. 
      - Lothstons and Whents after them have mostly died out (beyond Cat, Lysa and Edmure's children).
      - House Darry is decimated as well, though descendants still present in House Frey and possibly others.
      - House Blackwood has an intriguing pan-Westeros network of staunchly First Men House associations. Their descendants can probably be found in every region by now but in relatively small pockets. The Stark kids of course descend from a Blackwood. As does Daenaerys.

Edited March 20 by Hippocras

[John Suburbs]

I'm sorry, but Timmet is no way, no how ever going to become Lord of the Vale. I see this idea all the time, and even if he does have a blood tie to some Arryn or another, the Vale lords will never bend the knee to a half-crazed wild man. And since there is no possibility that he could claim the title by right of conquest, it's simply a non-starter. The entire noble hierarchy of the Vale would have to collapse for that to happen.

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm sorry, but Timmet is no way, no how ever going to become Lord of the Vale. I see this idea all the time, and even if he does have a blood tie to some Arryn or another, the Vale lords will never bend the knee to a half-crazed wild man. And since there is no possibility that he could claim the title by right of conquest, it's simply a non-starter. The entire noble hierarchy of the Vale would have to collapse for that to happen.

Not saying he will be. Only saying that technically he might be next in line after Harry, political considerations aside. Because he likely is also a grandchild of Alys Arryn.

For this thread I am actually more interested in discussing who might be next in line by blood AFTER Timett.

Edited March 20 by Hippocras

[VesperEve]

Quote

I am curious which Riverlands House the kidnapped daughter of Alys Arryn and Elys Waynwood was meant to marry in to

House Bracken according to A feast for crows, Chapter 41, Alayne II

[Hippocras]

11 hours ago, VesperEve said:

House Bracken according to A feast for crows, Chapter 41, Alayne II

Now that is very interesting isn't it?

The Blackwood-Bracken feud morphed into the Blackfyre rebellions, and now is potentially an undercurrent of the coming conflicts. It takes some digging but family connections can be so revealing.

Edited March 21 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

What we know:

1. The « ei » suffix is associated with the Westerlands, and House Crakehall in particular.

Carolei Waynwood married Geremy Frey, a son of Amarei Crakehall. The Waynwood family tree lists Anya’s deceased husband as unknown, her father and mother’s names also both unknown. Still, her mother (or possibly her former husband) was almost certainly a close relative of Amarei Crakehall, and Carolei Frey is one of Anya’s daughters. Marcella Waynwood, mother of Walton Frey may have been Anya’s sister. It is likely that Anya’s husband, whoever he was, died in Robert’s rebellion and that all of Anya’s children were therefore born in or before 283 AC.  Anya’s relationship to Jocelyn Stark is unclear but the timing suggests she is probably not a descendant but a niece-in-law.

2. The Crakehall-Waynwood connection is clearly suggested both by the naming pattern and by the descendant chain within House Frey. Less clear is the connection between Houses Waynwood and Bracken. We only know of a failed betrothal. However Redtusk, a suspected Crakehall, was possibly married to a Bracken and this may have been the reason why he fought for Daemon Blackfyre. He could well have been Anya’s grandfather.

 

All of this is a possible slight digression, because it is the descendants of Any’s uncle Elys who are, for now, relevant to the Arryn inherritance. However I do think we need to pick what we know from Any’s family tree, because this gives us clues to where other Arryn descendants might be found. Elys’s line ends with Harry.

Edited March 21 by Hippocras

[astarkchoice]

It seems the arryn house has become pretty weak, even weaker now LF has given away the gates of the moon!!

 

If LF s plans blow up harry would be wise to continuento marry the spice merchants daughter (richest man in gulltown)  then maybe bethrothe the kids to the arryns of gulltown (one of the wealthiest families) and  the smaller other lesser arryns to restrengthen the house.

[Hippocras]

Something that I have always wondered about which is very likely of some kind of relevance here, is why Ned was sent to the Vale as a ward. We have seen over and over that wards are usually either relatives of some degree (ie. Harry is the son of Anya's niece), or the relationships are the result of hostage situations (ie. Theon), or of deep friendships and alliances forged either at court or at war (ie. Petyr Baelish and Hoster Tully).

So what sort of connection did Rickard Stark have to Jon Arryn?

Rickard, Ned's father, was the son of Marna Locke. Though we know little of House Locke, we do know that they are closely associated with House Manderly and are located on the Bite with trade and probable family connections to the Vale. Rickard may well have had a Vale grandmother on the Locke side. Meanwhile there are relatively established connections between Houses Blackwood and Royce, meaning that Rickard's grandmother Melantha Blackwood would have had some degree of Vale descent, as of course did Rickard's great-grandmother Lorra Royce. Finally, there is Rickard's wife Lyarra Stark, whose mother was Arya Flint of the Mountains. A relatively poor and uninfluential region, but one with perhaps a common mountain culture to some Vale Houses which might have led to matches between them in the past. Arya's mother was possibly from a mountainous vassal House of House Arryn as well.

Jasper Arryn, Jon's father, was born in or before 208 AC. We do not know much about this part of the Vale family tree except that we do know that Rowena Arryn was Jon's cousin, meaning that Jasper must have had at least one younger brother (or she would not have had the Arryn name). Jasper likely also had  one or more sisters. Lord Donnel Arryn was probably Jasper's father and we know only two things about him really; that he fought and lost in a tournament at Maidenpool in 208 in which Ser Humphrey Hardyng appears to have done remarkably well (so many Vale Houses at that tourney), and that he was a very staunch supporter of Daeron II. The arrival of the Corbray reinforcements at the Redgrass Field may have been negotiated with an important betrothal which I am guessing because of their late arrival - so a child of Donnel's (or he himself) may have married a Corbray between 196 and 208 AC. In this case, either Rowena Arryn's mother was that Corbray, or Jasper's sister was the grandmother of the current Corbrays - which would mean of course that the current Corbrays may be next in line in the Vale after Harry (and Timett).

If Rowena's mother was the relevant Corbray, then we may need to look to her sisters (or brothers if they exist). In this case, Marna Locke may indeed be the key to all of this, as a Corbray connection to House Locke is not at all unlikely, nor would a younger House Arryn branch association be.

 

Let's next assume for a second that Lorra Royce's mother was an Arryn: as the Royces are a very powerful family in the Vale, this is not far-fetched. Lorra was born in or before 201 AC, meaning her Arryn mother would have been born in or before 185 AC. This would make her (if she existed) Donnel's sister or aunt, though probably not the only one. It would mean that Lorra had both a drop of Arryn descent, as well as family connections to whatever other families her Royce and Arryn cousins inter-married with. And for reasons stated earlier I suspect that many of these families can be found in the Riverlands, and of course the Vale.

  

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

It seems the arryn house has become pretty weak, even weaker now LF has given away the gates of the moon!!

 

If LF s plans blow up harry would be wise to continuento marry the spice merchants daughter (richest man in gulltown)  then maybe bethrothe the kids to the arryns of gulltown (one of the wealthiest families) and  the smaller other lesser arryns to restrengthen the house.

I think people always need to remember that the family trees are not complete and that GRRM uses this incompleteness to hide relevant details. Without knowing if Jasper had sisters or aunts, or anything at all about Rowena's family except that her father must have been Jasper's brother, we really can't conclude anything about how many Arryn descendants exist except to say that the existence of an Arryn Gulltown branch is probably misleading. The branching happened quite far back and more recent main branch descendants are likely more relevant except of course if and when they married INTO the Gulltown branch.

Edited March 22 by Hippocras

[astarkchoice]

39 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Something that I have always wondered about which is very likely of some kind of relevance here, is why Ned was sent to the Vale as a ward. We have seen over and over that wards are usually either relatives of some degree (ie. Harry is the son of Anya's niece), or the relationships are the result of hostage situations (ie. Theon), or of deep friendships and alliances forged either at court or at war (ie. Petyr Baelish and Hoster Tully).

So what sort of connection did Rickard Stark have to Jon Arryn?

Rickard, Ned's father, was the son of Marna Locke. Though we know little of House Locke, we do know that they are closely associated with House Manderly and are located on the Bite with trade and probable family connections to the Vale. Rickard may well have had a Vale grandmother on the Locke side. Meanwhile there are relatively established connections between Houses Blackwood and Royce, meaning that Rickard's grandmother Melantha Blackwood would have had some degree of Vale descent, as of course did Rickard's great-grandmother Lorra Royce. Finally, there is Rickard's wife Lyarra Stark, whose mother was Arya Flint of the Mountains. A relatively poor and uninfluential region, but one with perhaps a common mountain culture to some Vale Houses which might have led to matches between them in the past. Arya's mother was possibly from a mountainous vassal House of House Arryn as well.

Jasper Arryn, Jon's father, was born in or before 208 AC. We do not know much about this part of the Vale family tree except that we do know that Rowena Arryn was Jon's cousin, meaning that Jasper must have had at least one younger brother. He likely also had some sisters. Lord Donnel Arryn was probably Jasper's father (or grandfather) and we know only two things about him really; that he fought and lost in a tournament at Maidenpool in 208 in which Ser Humphrey Hardyng appears to have done remarkably well, and that he was a very staunch supporter of Daeron II. The arrival of the Corbray reinforcements at the Redgrass Field may have been negotiated with an important betrothal - so a child of Donnel's may have married a Corbray between 196 and 208 AC. In this case, either Rowena Arryn's mother was that Corbray, or Jasper's sister was the grandmother of the current Corbrays. Which would mean of course that the current Corbrays may be next in line in the Vale after Harry (and Timett).

If Rowena's mother was the relevant Corbray, then we may need to look to her sisters (or brothers if they exist). In this case, Marna Locke may indeed be the key to all of this, as a Corbray connection to House Locke is not at all unlikely, nor would a younger House Arryn branch association be.

 

Let's next assume for a second that Lorra Royce's mother was an Arryn: as the Royces are a very powerful family in the Vale, this is not far-fetched. Lorra was born in or before 201 AC, meaning her Arryn mother would have been born in or before 185 AC. This would make her (if she existed) Donnel's sister or aunt, though by no means the only one. However it would mean that Lorra had both a drop of Arryn descent, as well as family connections to whatever other families her Royce and Arryn cousins inter-married with. And for reasons stated earlier there are reasons to suspect that many of these families can be found in the Riverlands, and of course the Vale.

  

I think people always need to remember that the family trees are not complete and that GRRM uses this incompleteness to hide relevant details. Without knowing if Jasper had sisters or aunts, or anything at all about Rowena's family except that her father must have been Jasper's brother, we really can't conclude anything about how many Arryn descendants exist except to say that the existence of an Arryn Gulltown branch is probably misleading. The branching happened quite far back and more recent main branch descendants are likely more relevant except of course if and when they married INTO the Gulltown branch.

Could be we are told the arryns have many lesser relatives around the vale, the bonds where probably a lot stronger back when the arryns took control of the area. Given how weak the main house is now some links would probably do it some.good.....harrys spice lady is the daughter of gulltowns richest man which while not  nobilty would be a huge boost in the arm to the .main arryn family as would tieing them into the rich gulltown arryns. 

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

Could be we are told the arryns have many lesser relatives around the vale, the bonds where probably a lot stronger back when the arryns took control of the area. Given how weak the main house is now some links would probably do it some.good.....harrys spice lady is the daughter of gulltowns richest man which while not  nobilty would be a huge boost in the arm to the .main arryn family as would tieing them into the rich gulltown arryns. 

Again, as I already said in my above response to your post:

While the branch descended directly from Jasper Arryn is decimated, there is no evidence either way on those descended from Japer's brothers and sisters, uncles and aunts. There could be quite a healthy array of descendants around hiding under different names.

I think the more interesting issue is to what extent these various descendants have become indirectly tied up with the Blackwood/Loyalist - Bracken/Blackfyre split leading to a factional dynamic in the Vale just under the surface, and also to what extent they are all about to get dragged in to the implosion of House Frey because of these historic associations.

 

I think, for the record, that Littlefinger has gone after first Catelyn, then Lysa, then Sansa for reasons that have nothing to do with love and everything to do with lineage. So the Tully-Whent trees would probably prove very informative for this discussion if we had any. Hoster's mother, for example, may have been Rowena's sister.

Edited March 22 by Hippocras

[astarkchoice]

4 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Again, as I already said in my above response to your post:

While the branch descended directly from Jasper Arryn is decimated, there is no evidence either way on those descended from Japer's brothers and sisters, uncles and aunts. There could be quite a healthy array of descendants around hiding under different names.

I think the more interesting issue is to what extent these various descendants have become indirectly tied up with the Blackwood/Loyalist - Bracken/Blackfyre split leading to a factional dynamic in the Vale just under the surface, and also to what extent they are all about to get dragged in to the implosion of House Frey because of these historic associations.

 

I think, for the record, that Littlefinger has gone after first Catelyn, then Lysa, then Sansa for reasons that have nothing to do with love and everything to do with lineage. So the Tully-Whent trees would probably prove very informative for this discussion if we had any. Hoster's mother, for example, may have been Rowena's sister.

True they could be dotted around the vale but to really revive the arryn brand id say they need to either embrace the rich merchants like saffrons dad and the gulltown arryns OR tie themselves to a house that can call on a lot of men. 

 

And no lf is clearly besotted with sansa and was so with cat (hence a skinny runt daring to risk it all vs a hulking renowned swordsman like brandon) ....its the whupping and subsequent beng tossed away like a dirty rag by lord tully that made lf wise up and stop playing the game by the normal.rules , a runt lord from a barren tiny slice of land  cant win at the game that way!

[Hippocras]

48 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

And no lf is clearly besotted with sansa and was so with cat (hence a skinny runt daring to risk it all vs a hulking renowned swordsman like brandon) 

That is just what he says, and we should never believe what he says, and he always arrangs "proof" to back up his lies. The Brandon duel is the only reason anyone believes him about this, but he always knew his life was not at risk from Brandon. His injuries are his cover story.

If Harry dies, consider this point backed up. LF means for Harry to die while at the same time making it seem like this outcome is not in his interest because of "Alayne"s betrothal.

I don't actually want to debate it further though because you will not convince me and I will not convince you and there is no proof either way. So leave it please as a difference of opinions. Just please humour me no matter what you believe about it, that Sansa's lineage is likely of very high relevance in the Vale.

Edited March 22 by Hippocras

[astarkchoice]

41 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

That is just what he says, and we should never believe what he says, and he always arrangs "proof" to back up his lies. The Brandon duel is the only reason anyone believes him about this, but he always knew his life was not at risk from Brandon. His injuries are his cover story.

If Harry dies, consider this point backed up. LF means for Harry to die while at the same time making it seem like this outcome is not in his interest because of "Alayne"s betrothal.

I don't actually want to debate it further though because you will not convince me and I will not convince you and there is no proof either way. So leave it please as a difference of opinions. Just please humour me no matter what you believe about it, that Sansa's lineage is likely of very high relevance in the Vale.

His life was very very much in danger during the duel even pulling his shots and asking him to yield brandon could have accidently killed him. He left him badly mauled needing a fortnight in bed before he could even travel...that is serious damage! 

 

Yes we'l agree to disagree

[Hippocras]

39 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

His life was very very much in danger during the duel even pulling his shots and asking him to yield brandon could have accidently killed him. He left him badly mauled needing a fortnight in bed before he could even travel...that is serious damage! 

 

Yes we'l agree to disagree

So what are your theories on who comes after Harry in the Vale succession then?

[astarkchoice]

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

So what are your theories on who comes after Harry in the Vale succession then?

Hmm well as varys points out power is where people believe it lies as much as reality.

 

Lady waynwood is one of the senior figures in the vale with a powerful house, her hold on harry her ward (i think hes her nephew in law too)  means many looked to her as a kingmaker for years  anyway.

So if LF's  plan explodes  he and  sweetrobin die, sansa flees and somehow harry dies too........then  id predict lady waynwood would take control with  a very vauge claim being alys arryns neice in law BUT backed by the power of her house , the influence she has held.and most importantly having 3 grown unmarried sons to tie into vale alliances!  i feel her house would sieze power..maybe marrying her eldest to one of the rich gulltown arryns to help.shore it up!

 

So lets picture after whatever accident /massacre kills harry and sweetrobin and drives away or kills sansa+ lf

Bronze royce has married his daughter to another  powerful vale lord so is in a strong positon esp through the cadet branch having the gates of the moon now. Probably the 2nd most powerful positiom for any  player in the game for the vale ( IF Lf + robin+ harry  all die.)

But lady waynwoods position as harrys ward has made her for decades the 2nd woman in the vale after lysa herself! Powerful hpuse with a very vauge arryn connection through marriage. Her 3 sons seal the deal though no one else is touching that for an alliance maker in the vale! 

In fact on top of that if harry dies she could reach out to saffrons rich father (if hes the richest man in gulltown hes probably  the richest in the vale or at least top3!) And offer to back or legitimize  safron + harrys bastard  as heir to the minor hardyng holdings! 

Edited March 22 by astarkchoice

[Hippocras]

11 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

So if LF's  plan explodes  he and  sweetrobin die, sansa flees and somehow harry dies too........then  id predict lady waynwood would take control with  a very vauge claim being alys arryns neice in law BUT backed by the power of her house , the influence she has held.and most importantly having 3 grown unmarried sons to tie into vale alliances!  i feel her house would sieze power..maybe marrying her eldest to one of the rich gulltown arryns to help.shore it up!

…

Bronze royce has married his daughter to another  powerful vale lord so is in a strong positon esp through the cadet branch having the gates of the moon now. Probably the 2nd most powerful positiom for any  player in the game for the vale ( IF Lf + robin+ harry  all die.)

I disagree on Anya’s power. I think her influence depends entirely on Harry, and WHEN (IMO) he dies, so does much of that influence. She would still be in charge of a powerful House but nothing more. She is a woman in a heavily Andal region.

House Royce has the advantage when it comes to marriage alliances of BY’s daughters. I don’t know how many grandchildren he has.

Also, I have no idea why you think Littlefinger needs to die for any of this. Littlefinger has absolutely no hold on the Vale in his own right. He has managed to buy himself some time as a regent, not Lord, with financial negotiations but that would not extend pas SR’s death. Which is why the notion LF wants to kill SR any time soon is ridiculous. All power he has comes via SR.

On the other hand if I am correct in believing that Sansa is somewhere not far off in line after Harry, he may EVENTUALLY want SR dead as long as the Vale is ready to declare itself openly against Lannister rule, and as long as he believes that he has secured Sansa for himself in marriage.

Edited March 23 by Hippocras

[astarkchoice]

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I disagree on Anya’s power. I think her influence depends entirely on Harry, and WHEN (IMO) he dies, so does much of that influence. She would still be in charge of a powerful House but nothing more. She is a woman in a heavily Andal region.

House Royce has the advantage when it comes to marriage alliances of BY’s daughters. I don’t know how many grandchildren he has.

Also, I have no idea why you think Littlefinger needs to die for any of this. Littlefinger has absolutely no hold on the Vale in his own right. He has managed to buy himself some time as a regent, not Lord, with financial negotiations but that would not extend pas SR’s death. Which is why the notion LF wants to kill SR any time soon is ridiculous. All power he has comes via SR.

On the other hand if I am correct in believing that Sansa is somewhere not far off in line after Harry, he may EVENTUALLY want SR dead as long as the Vale is ready to declare itself openly against Lannister rule, and as long as he believes that he has secured Sansa for himself in marriage.

Shes in a strong position due to having harry for so long (influence doesnt die thst fast) , 3 adult unmarried sons and if harry dies she could reach out to saffrons father. Alliances are what would swing it not her oen power per say.

 

Bromze royce has one that we know of yeah

 

Lfs position in the vale is secure and more so as each day passes. SR he doesnt want to die (esp now he had to kill lysa early) but hes hedging his bets with sansa , lady waynwood and co clearly know who she is so for pretense sake theyl happily forgoe saffrons dad to align with lf and  marry harry to sansa with her 'fathers permission'

But no LFs position is very secure as we see hes got the harry + sansa plan  seemingly goig well.+ mercs gathering. He knows dirty secrets and has others in his pocket etc

 

[Hippocras]

43 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

 (influence doesnt die thst fast)

Yes it does. Especially for women. I am sorry, but there is just no argument for it. You seem to think they are the only House capable of allying with wealth merchant Houses if needed but even that is not true. The Waynwoods are just one house among many and they have no hold at all over anyone they do not already have marriage alliances with. They do not have the biggest army or the most wealth, or ANY means to assert authority that is not by inheritance. When Harry dies, they do not have any claim left by inheritance, and nearly every single House in the Vale would rise up against them if they tried to assert power anyway.

The Royces have bigger armies. The Royces have allies in the Reach and Stormlands because of Robar, who may even have been married and had a child before he died. Andar is alive and well and has several sisters beyond Ysilla (who is now allied with House Redfort). Past Arryn-Royce marriages mean they have Arryn descent, though unclear how recent. So it really beats me why you think that somehow Anya Waynwood will take precedence.

Is it because you believe the Vale will rally behind Harry's bastards? Not much sign of that or Mya Stone would be receiving more courteous treatment.

[astarkchoice]

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Yes it does. Especially for women. I am sorry, but there is just no argument for it. You seem to think they are the only House capable of allying with wealth merchant Houses if needed but even that is not true. The Waynwoods are just one house among many and they have no hold at all over anyone they do not already have marriage alliances with. They do not have the biggest army or the most wealth, or ANY means to assert authority that is not by inheritance. When Harry dies, they do not have any claim left by inheritance, and nearly every single House in the Vale would rise up against them if they tried to assert power anyway.

The Royces have bigger armies. The Royces have allies in the Reach and Stormlands because of Robar, who may even have been married and had a child before he died. Andar is alive and well and has several sisters beyond Ysilla (who is now allied with House Redfort). Past Arryn-Royce marriages mean they have Arryn descent, though unclear how recent. So it really beats me why you think that somehow Anya Waynwood will take precedence.

Is it because you believe the Vale will rally behind Harry's bastards? Not much sign of that or Mya Stone would be receiving more courteous treatment.

Like any house itl really depend on who they ally with 

Royce has a good shot at control too as he has just married his family into another powerful vale lords house.

Now lady waynwood already has a connection with saffrons rich dad and 3 sons to marry  , if she make one of them miranda royce that isolates the lesser royces and secures the gates of the moon.

 

I dont think wel agree on this i dont feel this blackwood theory has leg

Besides 2 books left i  doubt both  harry and  sweetrobin will die

Edited March 23 by astarkchoice

[Hippocras]

@astarkchoice TBH talking about who might GRAB power in the Vale is not really what I had intended. This is a world where there are chains of inheritance. They may need to look really very far back with the help of their maesters, but there IS someone alive who has an actual claim to the Lordship/Ladyship of the Vale.

What I was trying to discuss, is who people think that person might be.

How many sons and daughters did Donnel Arryn have? Was Jasper his son or his grandson? Aunts, daughters, sisters from Jasper, Donnel, and Joffrey Arryn a generation or two before them. Denys Arryn died in the rebellion and we do not know where he got his Arryn name except that he was NOT a Gulltown Arryn. He was from an "impoverished branch". Rowena Arryn was Jon's cousin, but how many others did he have and where do people think they are most likely to be found?

Edited March 23 by Hippocras