AGOT Mafia 32.5: Vanilla--It's the Finest of the Flavors

[Jagged]

Sure Pan. I think looking into me is a good Idea. I am willing and able to defend all of my actions.

ETS. Sorry Nox. I don't understand why you wouldn't vote for VSM. I mean you knew you were innocent. So lynching VSM instead of you would give a better chance of lynching a bad guy.

Well thats what I like to hear.

Jagged because he really started the Nox lynch mob with his VSM connection, and because he was a tad defensive when I suggested we look into him. And Kuro for the reasons I've stated above.

Ok, I'm fine with people looking at me. Doesn't bother me at all. I tell pan as much when he says we should look at me day 2. He seems to like this and sees nothing wrong with my reation. In fact he praises it. Then Several hours later I'm being "too defensive". Does anyone else see how he is trying to re-write history here.

I find that very suspicious. I think Pan just got caught in his own statements by trying to twist things to fit his current goals.

[Pan]

Ok, I'm fine with people looking at me. Doesn't bother me at all. I tell pan as much when he says we should look at me day 2. He seems to like this and sees nothing wrong with my reation. In fact he praises it. Then Several hours later I'm being "too defensive". Does anyone else see how he is trying to re-write history here.

I find that very suspicious. I think Pan just got caught in his own statements by trying to twist things to fit his current goals.

The way you phrased it struck me as a little bit aggressively defensive (oxymoron?) anyway it sounded to me like this, "Come on buddy, come on, just try me." Maybe not defensive but at least a little off to me. Personally I never like people looking into me when I'm innocent, mainly because half my actions look guilty and because then I know that we aren't attacking an innocent person that day. I'm probably grasping at straws here, and I know it, but that is why I found that one post off jagged.

[Pan]

By the way my current goals are for the innocents to win. I don't know about yours.

[Jagged]

The way you phrased it struck me as a little bit aggressively defensive (oxymoron?) anyway it sounded to me like this, "Come on buddy, come on, just try me." Maybe not defensive but at least a little off to me. Personally I never like people looking into me when I'm innocent, mainly because half my actions look guilty and because then I know that we aren't attacking an innocent person that day. I'm probably grasping at straws here, and I know it, but that is why I found that one post off jagged.

Then why not say that in the first place? At first it obvioulsy didn't strike you as aggressivly defensive, in fact it seemed to be better then ok. You could have just said "Ok, I probably will." or just said nothing at all but you went out of your way to something that was obviously positive "Well, Thats what I like to hear."

I would be fine if you hadn't done a complete 180 on your previous position without even acknowledging that you had ever thought differently.

[House Reed]

It is Day Two.

1 vote for DJDonegal (Katran)

1 vote for Khamul (Kurokaze)

7 players have not voted: DJDonegal, Jagged, Khamul, Pan, Piper of Chaos, VerySmallMonster, Weekapaug.

9 players remain; 5 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

You've got 13 hours and 15 minutes left in the day.

[Khamul]

Okay, I'm back for a short while. I've had a very long day, and it is unfortunately not over yet.

Regarding my vote yesterday; yes, I jumped on the lynchtrain/wagon/whatever, and I did it because others found it a viable course. First off, it was day 1. Did anyone honestly expect us to identify and lynch a FM from what? 12 hours of gaming? How often does it actually happen that a FM is lynched on day 1? It was argued that lynching Joanna would at least give us some info to go on off, and yes, I agreed with that. It did go too fast, we should have used some more time to discuss and talk first, but for my part I was close to going to bed and I knew I would not have time to come back before the day was over [okay, so I did end up staying up a while longer, as I saw that the lynch went through]. I should have said that when i voted, but I didn't...

So, I'm fine if you vote me, but I honestly do think there are better alternatives - lynching me will not give us/the innocents much more to go on.

I'll be back later to comment on the current issues.

[Jagged]

Well I'm going to go ahead an place my vote against Pan I just find his 180 without explanation suspicious.

[Piper of Chaos]

IIRC, Dunny was a bit suspicious of Jagged yesterday, because he tried to manipulate people. Right now I think he's stretching things against Pan a bit, so my vote goes to

Jagged,

and I will do a reread of him and Pan to see what's going on there betwen those two.

[DJDonegal]

Hmm... it's difficult at this point, but I find the Jo Nox lynch train the most suspicious thing in this game so far. I want to concentrate on the people who were on said train:

6 votes for Joanna (Jagged, Katran, Kurokaze, Pan, Khamul, Weekapaug)

Now there's obviously the ever suspicious positions of third and fourth on this train, but it's the final deadly voter I want to question. Okay, he says that he felt like it was eeny meany miney mo, but it's always a good idea to get final words or something and then gauge your response from there.

In between Jo Nox's last comment and the end of the day there were 3 more votes for her without her even being given a chance. So, Weekapaug, what say you to not at least giving Jo Nox a chance to convince you?

[Week]

What could be said day 1 that would convince you of someone's innocence? By my count at that point I was vote 7. It was already talked about that she was at least moderately suspicious with strange sympish behavior towards VSM. Between that, and the fact that anyone getting lynched will give some information on day 1, I really wasn't overly concerned with who was getting lynched. Day 1 cases are mostly bullshit IMO, people can accidently say things in a joking manner, or just say something without really thinking about it, and because there is nobody else really suspicious then they get lynched rather quickly. By ending the day then, we prevent a 24 hour day 1, and I just really don't see want we'd gain from that. Now on day 2 I would expect us to slow down and try and figure out what exactly why things happened, and what Dunny's death meant, if anything.

[DJDonegal]

Day 1 cases are mostly bullshit IMO, people can accidently say things in a joking manner, or just say something without really thinking about it, and because there is nobody else really suspicious then they get lynched rather quickly.

I agree with this, but I stand firm that the more information we get, the better. Even if those present had decided to go ahead and lynch her anyway, I think it only fair to give someone a fighting chance.

As to your comment on her synnpish behaviour, as I read it, people thought it was the other way round and that VSM was synnping Jo Nox. Outright refusing to vote someone would be a foolish FM move.

Sure, vision is 20/20 with hindsight, but we now know she was one of us and just didn't think VSM was guilty.

[Pan]

Then why not say that in the first place? At first it obvioulsy didn't strike you as aggressivly defensive, in fact it seemed to be better then ok. You could have just said "Ok, I probably will." or just said nothing at all but you went out of your way to something that was obviously positive "Well, Thats what I like to hear."

I would be fine if you hadn't done a complete 180 on your previous position without even acknowledging that you had ever thought differently.

Well I didn't say so in the first place because I hadn't gone back and reread what you said when I wrote my first post, it was all on memory and gut reaction. Then for my next post I did reread what you had said, and though I still found the post suspicous I found it suspicious for different reasons then I origenally stated. Is that a complete 180? I don't think so, I just think it is part of how I play to change my original assumptions as I go on.

You were not my main suspect before but now that you are constantly attacking me, and trying to stretch what I have said, you are definetely moving up the list.

[Pan]

Umm by the way: There is no symp in this game.

[DJDonegal]

I know. But I think the point Week was getting at is that the FM may have been defending each other, and thus appearing as symps normally would.

Though I don't think an FM team would make themselves that obvious.

[Jagged]

Hope you had a nice birthday, Dunny, 'cause guess what? You're dead.

Dunny was

SPOILER: shock!

good

It is day 2.

9 players remain: DJDonegal, Jagged, Katran, Khamul, Kurokaze, Pan, Piper of Chaos, VerySmallMonster, Weekapaug.

5 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

9 players have not voted: DJDonegal, Jagged, Katran, Khamul, Kurokaze, Pan, Piper of Chaos, VerySmallMonster, Weekapaug.

You've got 24 hours.

So lets look into the dunny death shall we?

Dunn had a vote on Kuro at the time she died, however she said that it was because of her gut and random.org. so I don't know how much substance we can put into it as a reason for her being killed. There were 6 people in the nox mob, and three off who are still alive, so we have just as much chance that both were in the mob, as one was outside of the mob. A little probability theory never hurt anyone.

I think that Kuro could have killed Dunn to take away one of his enemies, but since she was not very outspoken it wouldn't look that way. I also think that someone could be trying to frame Kuro, really I don't know about him, but he is a little suspect to me, for the sheep thing, for dunny's death, and for being an outspoken supporter of the nox lynch.

My top three right now are Katran, Jagged, and Kuro. Kat for gut reasons and maybe because her name has been mentioned so much. Jagged because he really started the Nox lynch mob with his VSM connection, and because he was a tad defensive when I suggested we look into him. And Kuro for the reasons I've stated above.

Ok, notice that DJD is the only person left on the Kuro lynch mob still alive. Now normally you don't want to destroy your cover as a FM and the only reason to do so is in the attempt to set up a frame. Now, I was wondering also who would bring this up first, as when setting up a frame I will bring it up but not actually cast the vote. See this plants the seeds in everyone elses mind and you let an innocent run with it. It sometimes takes a couple days to work.

So who brings it up, why it's Pan, and he also doesn't place a vote on Kuro either. So I was thinking maybe DJD and Pan are partners and it would be too suspicious for DJD to bring that up so his partner is. Then I went to check on there interactions. Guess what....there are none. Thats right as far as they are concerned the other might as well not even exist.

When playing a CF game there are several tactics one is to maintain good tactical distance so that if one is discoverd it does not provide any information on the other. This is the safest. The other tactic is to start a fight between the two of you so that if one is caught it give the other more of an innocent rep. This is great but very dangerous. Look how Kat had me on the ropes seveal games ago even before WJ came out with his list.

So I think Pan and DJD may be trying to keep tactical distance but over did it slightly. This theory explains why Dunny died because they want the next lynch to go on the Nox lynch mob as well as setting up the Kuro lynch for down the line.

ETA. Oh I forgot to mention DJD was held by many to be far more suspicious by people on day one so getting a potential lynch away from him was also a very good move.

ETA2. Looks like they finally decided that they were taking tactical seperation too far and actually acknowledge each others existance.

[Pan]

Ok, notice that DJD is the only person left on the Kuro lynch mob still alive. Now normally you don't want to destroy your cover as a FM and the only reason to do so is in the attempt to set up a frame. Now, I was wondering also who would bring this up first, as when setting up a frame I will bring it up but not actually cast the vote. See this plants the seeds in everyone elses mind and you let an innocent run with it. It sometimes takes a couple days to work.

So who brings it up, why it's Pan, and he also doesn't place a vote on Kuro either. So I was thinking maybe DJD and Pan are partners and it would be too suspicious for DJD to bring that up so his partner is. Then I went to check on there interactions. Guess what....there are none. Thats right as far as they are concerned the other might as well not even exist.

When playing a CF game there are several tactics one is to maintain good tactical distance so that if one is discoverd it does not provide any information on the other. This is the safest. The other tactic is to start a fight between the two of you so that if one is caught it give the other more of an innocent rep. This is great but very dangerous. Look how Kat had me on the ropes seveal games ago even before WJ came out with his list.

So I think Pan and DJD may be trying to keep tactical distance but over did it slightly. This theory explains why Dunny died because they want the next lynch to go on the Nox lynch mob as well as setting up the Kuro lynch for down the line.

ETA. Oh I forgot to mention DJD was held by many to be far more suspicious by people on day one so getting a potential lynch away from him was also a very good move.

ETA2. Looks like they finally decided that they were taking tactical seperation too far and actually acknowledge each others existance.

Well that would be a fine idea, if it were true, but it isn't, and I don't really know how to refute it, I didn't cast a vote because I wasn't sure about anything. I mean you could lynch me to prove my innocence but I'd rather not.

[emberling]

As to your comment on her synnpish behaviour, as I read it, people thought it was the other way round and that VSM was synnping Jo Nox. Outright refusing to vote someone would be a foolish FM move.

Strongly disagree with this assessment.

I have emphatically stated at least once before that Nox symping VSM was by far the stronger case. Yes, it was 'too obvious' or whatever, but VSM never 'refused' to vote Nox, she just didn't. We had little reason to suspect a connection from VSM's actions except that a connection was plausible.

The main other living players who discussed the issue at the time were Kat and Jagged, both of whom seemed to consider both possibilities about equally.

So why are you pushing Weekapaug on such twisted reasoning, DJD?

Furthermore, I find Jagged's analysis intriguing. It's not enough to push my vote onto Pan, who I didn't think looked particularly guilty before, but I've been suspicious of DJD and I find his actions today even moreso.

If DJD comes up guilty we look closely at Pan; if innocent, Jagged.

[DJDonegal]

ETA. Oh I forgot to mention DJD was held by many to be far more suspicious by people on day one so getting a potential lynch away from him was also a very good move.

Remove vote.

Explain yourself, Jaggs young man. You're now a lying liar who lies. I went back and reread the first day and unless you count the tongue in cheek comments about lynching the TTTNE'ers as being "far more suspicious", there was absolutely nothing to show for me being a potential lynch. Nobody even laid a vote on me at any point of the day!

[DJDonegal]

Yes, it was 'too obvious' or whatever, but VSM never 'refused' to vote Nox, she just didn't. We had little reason to suspect a connection from VSM's actions except that a connection was plausible.

I wasn't saying VSM refused to vote Jo Nox, I was implying the opposite, as can be seen in Post 85.

[emberling]

I wasn't saying VSM refused to vote Jo Nox, I was implying the opposite, as can be seen in Post 85.

Er, explain how this leads to the conclusion 'people thought it was the other way round and that VSM was synnping Jo Nox.' I'm aware that you thought Nox's refusal was 'too obvious.' Nothing wrong with that. It's that I think it's pretty much completely spurious to say that there was more focus on VSM's actions than on Nox's (eta: or 'that VSM was thought to be symping Nox and not the other way around' or whatever it was you said), because the discussion was focused either on both of them or on just Nox's refusal.