emberling Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Sorry Pan if you're innocent, but when it comes to deciding between two people so connected, you can't argue with the gut Now if he's innocent, the next thing to do is probably to look at Jagged and his shakily possible partner Piper. Jagged doesn't look evil to me, but I'm not going to stake my life on it unless I have to. Piper, on the other hand, seems a bit out of form. Combined with his recent symping or fake-symping of Jagged (I have no idea whether a killer would fake-symp a top suspect - haven't thought it through - but if one did, it would likely be Piper. ) he's the more suspicious of the two. I would also prefer to look at those who didn't fit in any of these categories and weren't examined much earlier - Week, VSM, Khamul - but they're providing annoyingly few loose ends to get ahold of. Well, Week's put out a few, but he has that pesky newbie excuse. ETA: Cross-posted. Gah! Well, at least I don't have to do the 'if Pan is guilty' post I was about to write. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jagged Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Ok, you were supposed to go to 4 votes and see if it would shake one of them. I find that cross post suspicious highly suspicious considering how damn slow the thread has been moving all day. I mean really. :mad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jagged Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Augh, I hate this network sometimes...I had a long post going through a few posts and I lost it ..I'll go through it later, but I don't have time right now because I have to get back to studying for my comparison of the japanese and american economies If the vote at this point is coming down between Jagged and DJ, I'll have to go with DJ. I've been more suspicious of DJ at the end of yesterday than today. I guess its more that I trust Jagged, than that I don't trust DJ. Jagged is suspicious but he seems to have logical arguments I find myself agreeing with. If DJ is innocent, then I am very sorry DJ and we'll likely have to lynch Jagged next. I also am a bit frustrated with Piper being all over the map, but seemingly is an innocent...but thats an issue for the next day Vote DJ ugh, too late..doesn't matter ???????????????????????????????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Week Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 I meant my vote, not *the* vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jagged Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 My new theory is that it's Kuro and Kat as the evil people. Healer don't try to get too clever. Heal me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khamul Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Well, that was fast. I was counting on having a bit more time to read in as the thread has been very slow today. Hmm. Right now I'm more suspicious of Jagged than DJ, but it's just gut. And there are others that we don't really have a lead on - I'm one of them, but I'll try and post more tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VerySmallMonster Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 I find that cross post suspicious highly suspicious considering how damn slow the thread has been moving all day. I mean really. :mad: Well, I was just sitting there with my finger on the 'submit post' button waiting for someone to break the deadlock... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emberling Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 My new theory is that it's Kuro and Kat as the evil people. Thought we might get lumped together like that, but no such luck. Kat won't even talk to me about the next big game. Personally I think I've been too aggressive to be a believable partner to most people, including Kat, but if you disagree, that's fine. Healer don't try to get too clever. Heal me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 7, 2007 Author Share Posted March 7, 2007 It is day 3. No one died. 8 players remain: DJDonegal, Jagged, Katran, Khamul, Kurokaze, Piper of Chaos, VerySmallMonster, Weekapaug. 5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night. 8 players have not voted: DJDonegal, Jagged, Katran, Khamul, Kurokaze, Piper of Chaos, VerySmallMonster, Weekapaug. You've got 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jagged Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Sweet. No if you were evil would you withold a kill. It is probable that the heal would go to an innocent anyway so you don't gain anything there. You put youself on even which is good for you I guess but you also leave 2 VPI's into the game. I don't think I would try it if I were a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emberling Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Whoa. <- Not a healer. Loony theory: Jagged is evil and Jagged's partner is planning to claim healing Jagged. This is spurred by the mind-boggling post 225 where Jagged suggests that he is the obvious heal, which is clearly wrong because he is the obvious lynch target and thus a very unlikely nightkill target. If Jagged thinks, for some deranged reason, that he was the smart heal, he could have set up this elaborate fakery. But that's just the paranoia talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Week Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Cool! Not the healer either. I would be surprised if assassins would withhold, that would create some possible confusion..although I would think it would benefit innocents a lot more. I wonder who they tried to kill...guess we'll just have to wait for the healer to claim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jagged Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Whoa. <- Not a healer. Loony theory: Jagged is evil and Jagged's partner is planning to claim healing Jagged. This is spurred by the mind-boggling post 225 where Jagged suggests that he is the obvious heal, which is clearly wrong because he is the obvious lynch target and thus a very unlikely nightkill target. If Jagged thinks, for some deranged reason, that he was the smart heal, he could have set up this elaborate fakery. But that's just the paranoia talking. Well lets look at this. If I was evil and my partner claimed they would risk the counter claim. So even if we lynched the innocent my partner would die next and I would look bad if I had backed lynching the innocent first. Now also think about do I gain anything from this. I'm not in any real danger of a lynch right now. You haven't really managed to come close the last two days. Furthermore I'm the one who has been picking the lynches. I'm directing them so far so I wouldn't really have to worry too much about my partner getting lynched today as chances are good that I can get the lynch of someone else. Basicly if I'm evil it makes no sense that I would do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VerySmallMonster Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 While we wait for the healer... Piper, on the other hand, seems a bit out of form. Combined with his recent symping or fake-symping of Jagged (I have no idea whether a killer would fake-symp a top suspect - haven't thought it through - but if one did, it would likely be Piper. ) he's the more suspicious of the two. The weird thing is he has fake symped Jagged before he did the funny not case on Jagged. I noticed it when I was looking through day 1s votes. A very strange exchange where Dunny voted Jagged, and then Piper switched to Dunny immediately. I have no idea what to make of something like that. If they are partners then Piper is taking a whole new approach to how to play FM in a CF game. It's possible Piper is evil, and pretending to be Jagged's partner, but, well, he's being a little blatant about it if that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emberling Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Jagged, you're right, that didn't really make sense. As I said, it was just paranoia. But if you step back a bit, there's a similar situation that is both plausible and scary. Assume for the moment that one of the killers believes themself the hands-down probable heal. So then they withhold. Healer theoretically reveals with their name and VPIs them. It's still a far-out scenario in my mind, because I don't think there was an obvious heal at all, but Jagged's apparent belief that he was the obvious heal does still raise minor alarm bells. I'm also going to point out that if anyone checks in, doesn't claim healer, and then claims healer later after everyone's checked in, I will probably vote for that person unless they have a damn good reason. So don't play silly mind games. Let's not give the FM the opportunity to (if they withheld) check if the healer's alive and come out and VPI themselves if he isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Reed Posted March 7, 2007 Author Share Posted March 7, 2007 It is Day Three 8 players remain: DJDonegal, Jagged, Katran, Khamul, Kurokaze, Piper of Chaos, VerySmallMonster, Weekapaug. 5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night. 8 players have not voted: DJDonegal, Jagged, Katran, Khamul, Kurokaze, Piper of Chaos, VerySmallMonster, Weekapaug. You've got 20 hours. (What? It had been four hours since the last StoneAE post, and the thread will be left all alone till Plesstree can get on. You're allowed to post and even vote in the meantime though...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 This is strange - I thought Dunny would be an obvious heal last night. Makes me think that both the healer and the killers are a bit inexperienced. It's hard to be perfect all the time. But apparently, half the time is ok. I was thinking about waiting to see if anyone else claimed my role first, but then I decided I'd rather laugh at Piper. I healed Khamul last night, thinking she was the obvious kill because she was gone for most of day 2 and never voted in the Pan-DJ-Jagged thing. I'd consider her a PI, since the killers may have withheld just to draw me out. Edit: By the way, I sent in my heal (of Jagged) immediately on night 1, hence the comment about DJD being a potential killer. I sent in my heal fairly early on night 2 as well. If we're going to metagame based on timing, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emberling Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Ha! There goes the Kat is my partner theory! Assuming no second healer claim: Innocent: Kurokaze VPI: Katran, Khamul Very tentative PI: Jagged (Based mostly on his actions and how they compare to his usual play. Mostly excluding him just to keep this analysis quicker; I plan go back later and do it with him included if time permits.) Suspects: DJD, Week, Piper, VSM The suspect pool is now small enough that we can look at each individual pairing and see how well they fit together. POSSIBLE TEAMS: DJD and Weekapaug DJD and Piper DJD and VSM Weekapaug and Piper Weekapaug and VSM Piper and VSM ETA: Actually a download just finished and I'm going to go do something else instead of analyze this stuff right now. Call it suspicious if you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emberling Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Working on the connections listed above, but for now I want to vote Weekapaug. Firstly, I expect one FM to be on the Pan mob and the only other option is Jagged, who looks innocent to me. Secondly, I found this post quite interesting: My guilt is suspected* because I voted last on the first day and that I asked a question. I'm sorry I'm a new player, trying to figure who to vote for a day 1 is pretty close to eeny-meeny-miny-moe. I didn't want to just vote on someone willy-nilly, just personal preference at this point. I also explained my confusion with the Nox/Jagged exchange, didn't realize Jagged was being facetious. It's not that suspicious quoted here out of context, but looking back, I can't find the suspicion he's answering to. He is voted by Piper for an obviously absurd reason (his name is hard to spell), and Kat makes a post detailing a possible team of Week/VSM, among others. Then he reacts with the above quote, which in context, appears incredibly defensive, yet doesn't make much sense. It's feeling to me like an inexperienced FM's instinctive reaction to defend himself - particularly if he actually is VSM's partner, which could certainly send up some panic (note how I panicked on day one of game 31 when Dayne and myself were mentioned as partners) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJDonegal Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 No counter-claim over here. But no guilty tendencies either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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