AGOT Mafia 46.5

[Magic Mirror]

It wasn't me. I didn't hide last night. I guess we still have an active healer, and I'm guessing the target was Sunglass.

[House Corbray]

Well, that's good news.

I still want to lynch Upcliff. I'd also like to lynch Norcross, due to the end-of-day lynch, which was frustrating but could be illuminating down the line.

I really don't want us to lynch someone like we did last time. He didn't even know he'd become the lynch target, much less get a chance for last words or anything.

[House Ashford]

If you're saying I raised intriguing points about his suspicious behavior, yes I did.

In other words, I made a case, outlined with quotes, and followed with questions, hopefully requiring him to defend himself? What the fuck are you talking about I didn't outline what and why? Did you even read the case?

I'm not even sure what to say to this. I don't know Hasty as a person. I attacked his posts. Am I missing something, or isn't that how you play Mafia?

You misinterpret what I am trying to say. My view is that you posted some quotes of his and called it suspicious. You didn't say "X is suspicious because I think he is doing Y", you just said "A, B, C, and D are suspicious". That's the way I viewed it, and that's something I find FM-like. It wasn't a huge point for me to make but rather something I noticed and wanted to mention.

As far as Norcross, First you politely ask me for a post number, and then retort with sarcasm and ad hominem?

LOL... Absolute and utter bullshit.

I have a search button, and I can use it. Here are the three posts were I mention a Prester or Ambrose choice. If the post you are referring to isn't in one of these three, please point it out to me.

Post 241

Post 284

Post 301

Clearly the choice between Prester and Ambrose that I am refering to is the choice I will have to make. As I said in Post 241, I wasn't going to be on at end of day. As I further explained in Post 284 I wanted my vote to count. And finally in Post 301, I said we weren't restricted to the two of them. But are you saying that I should have layed my vote on my second choice (at the time) Inchfield?

[sarcasm]

With my poor credibility at that point in the game (?or even where it stands now?) I am sure placing a vote on Inchfield would have started an unstoppable train and gotten him lynched.

[/sarcasm]

In those EXACT three posts you contradict yourself ("Prester/Ambrose as the only viable lynch" vs "we aren't restricted to just voting Prester/Ambrose", with the excuse that it would be pointless to vote elsewhere. This is the exact sentiment I was referring to, and yet you choose to deny it so vehemently?

I would love to know what my ulterior motive was. I think it's clear that my motive was to lynch the person whom I thought was more likely to be (and turn out WAS) a FM.

Hoping Prester would retain momentum instead of your FM pal?

So my question now is... Why are you putting words into my mouth? Because by saying I was pushing the idea that Preter and Ambrose are the only two places anyone could place their vote, that is exactly what you are doing. Here I am thinking you are in the free and clear because you are (in my mind at least) probably PI -- based on the fact that if you were Ambrose's partner; it simply doesn't make sense to move your vote to him, taking the vote count from 6-6 to 5-7.

I'm not putting words into your mouth in the slightest. What I said is what you said, and I highly suspect what you said.

Congratulations, because of your vauge accuasations against me (my so called ulterior motives) I'll have to de-PI you.

Thanks for the OMGUS! "You suspect my intentions, therefore you are removed from my PI thoughts even though the two scenarios are unrelated."

[House Targaryen]

It is day 3.

9 players remain: Elesham, Hasty, Inchfield, Norcross, Prester, Sarsfield, Sunglass, Uller, Upcliff.

5 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

1 vote for Norcross ( Elesham)

8 players have not voted: Hasty, Inchfield, Norcross, Prester, Sarsfield, Sunglass, Uller, Upcliff.

You have about 44 hours reamaining.

[House Dondarrion]

Heh, well that makes yesterday feel a little better.

So how plausible is it for us to have a vigilante, a healer and a coward all working for us? That's two kill blocking roles and a killing role for the innocents. At the very least I'd suggest an evil guard to go some way towards countering that.

[House Sunglass]

Great job by the Healer. I think we needed that after all of the modkills, which had already cost us a lynch - you just gave that lynch back to us.

So how plausible is it for us to have a vigilante, a healer and a coward all working for us? That's two kill blocking roles and a killing role for the innocents. At the very least I'd suggest an evil guard to go some way towards countering that.

I was just about to ask the same question. I don't think an evil guard would even balance it. Think about it - we don't just have 2 blocking roles and a vig right now. We also have the CF, which does help the innocent team, IMO. The CF creates VPI players. The role reveals apparently create VPI players, judging by the way everyone is reacting to them. The healer can protect VPI players. The coward can dodge night kills. It's too much power for our side.

Think about it just in terms of the healer and coward roles being used together. That's 2 kill options that won't work for the FM. On night 1, it was going to be 2/10 or 2/11 of the options that would have failed. On night 2, it could have been as low as 2/8 of the options that would fail (or even 2/7 if the vig had killed an innocent on night 1, which he actually tried to do). Does it really make sense that the mods would take away up to 20% of the FM's ability to kill on night 1 and up to 25% (or even 29%) on night 2? Not in my mind.

And this is even more true because of the CF being in the game. The CF creates VPI players. The FM have no choice but to kill VPI players every night...too many VPI in the game cuts the suspect pool down too much. But when you add in a full, unlimited healer who can protect those VPI players...thats extremely powerful.

So yeah, I suspect Hasty outside of his role reveal. And I also have my doubts about the role reveal itself.

[Magic Mirror]

Oh, sweet, Upcliff suspects me some more.

The coward role was obviously designed for an innocent. Maybe it's not a balanced role in this game, but look. Say what you like about an FM trying to dodge a vig-kill-- it's a pretty pointless role for an FM because it would work perfectly and the vig would lose their kill. On any given night, say the FM are killing Person A and the Vig is going after Person B. All the FM-coward would have to do is hide behind a non-suspect that isn't Person A. It works for an innocent because they have no idea who the nightkill target is going to be. It might work for a symp. But it doesn't work in concert with a killer role, especially because, unlike the guard, it completely cancels out the vigilante's power. Meanwhile, you and your buddies could just try to kill me twice in a row--I can't protect myself every night, only every other night. So if your kill on me failed once, you could try again the next night. It wouldn't work that way with a vig. And my role is completely useless if there's an evil guard, because once I'm revealed, you could just block me and kill me.

Maybe we killed the evil guard on day 1?

[House Sunglass]

I've been thinking more about Hasty's role reveal. The defense that was brought up earlier was that he wouldn't have revealed when he did, because the chance of being counterclaimed was too high. But is that really the truth? We started the game with 14 players. Who was eligible to counterclaim a fake reveal when Hasty claimed he was the coward?

-Ambrose was dead (and was evil, meaning he wouldn't counterclaim his partner anyway)

-Jast, Lake, and Caron were dead

-the 3rd FM partner obviously wouldn't counterclaim

-Sunglass wouldn't counterclaim because he had already claimed Vig

-Prester was extremely unlikely to counterclaim, because he hadn't claimed the Coward role when the pressure was on him on day 1 (he got all the way to 6 votes)

-Hasty wasn't going to counterclaim himself tongue.gif

That leaves 7 specific players who could counterclaim (but 1 of them wouldn't, because he'd be the FM partner) - Elesham, Inchfield, Uller, Upcliff, Norcross, Sarsfield, Lefford

Then you add in the fact that one of those players is probably the Healer, or the Healer was dead. That's another person who wouldn't counterclaim. So we're down to 5 people who might challenge the role reveal. Hasty only had to be worried about 5 people who might counterclaim him. Those aren't outstanding odds, but they also aren't that bad. Could definitely see a FM opting for the Coward claim in that situation, if he really thought he was going to be lynched.

Then you add in one more factor - the one that Uller brought up earlier this morning. We already have a CF, a Healer, and a Vig. Leading to 2 questions -

1) What are the chances that we have a Coward as well?

2) If we do have a 3rd role, it could be a Coward or a Guard - probably a 50/50 chance between them. If it's a Guard, what are the odds that he'd reveal his role to counterclaim the Coward, essentially saying 'there is no way the mods would have given us this many roles'?

If Hasty is FM, then he was probably asking himself those questions prior to his reveal - he could think of them as extra factors that would make a counterclaim even less likely, thereby increasing his odds of pulling off a fake claim even more.

My conclusion is that it definitely would have made sense for a somewhat desperate FM to fake claim as the Coward in that situation. Hasty was at 3 votes, out of the 6 needed to lynch. A few other people had indicated that they wanted to lynch somebody from the group of people who weren't on the Ambrose mob (Hasty, Lefford, Inchfield, Uller). Time was running out, and momentum was going to become a factor - we had to lynch somebody who was a viable option. Hasty did what he had to do to defuse the lynch mob. Yeah, there was some risk that he'd be counterclaimed, but it wasn't very high, and it was a somewhat desperate situation.

[House Sunglass]

Oh, sweet, Upcliff suspects me some more.

As I understand it, many sites would define this as an OMGUS. Vote for the person who is voting for you, even though he wasn't your top suspect. Nice. Are you really that afraid of a little scrutiny, Hasty? If you're innocent, you'd rather be in a game where the innocents blindly accept your role reveal as being fact, rather than actually thinking about it?

The coward role was obviously designed for an innocent.

1) You are ignoring the possibility that you could be lying.

2) Even if you're telling the truth, it was NOT clearly designed for an innocent in a game where we also have a Vig. With no Vig, then yeah - the Coward role wouldn't make sense for the FM. But with a Vig, it does make sense.

Maybe it's not a balanced role in this game, but look. Say what you like about an FM trying to dodge a vig-kill-- it's a pretty pointless role for an FM because it would work perfectly and the vig would lose their kill. On any given night, say the FM are killing Person A and the Vig is going after Person B. All the FM-coward would have to do is hide behind a non-suspect that isn't Person A.

A few things here.

1) It would only protect 1 FM. The Vig's power would still work against the other 2. So the Vig's role would NOT be completely useless.

2) You're saying its a pointless role for the FM "because it would work perfectly"? How does that make any sense? The exact opposite is true. It's a role that makes sense for the FM because it would work perfectly, in that it would protect one of them from a Vig kill. That's the whole damn point of the role - to protect the player who has it from a kill.

3) You are contradicting yourself. First, you say that it "completely cancels out the vigilante's power" if the role is given to a FM -

But it doesn't work in concert with a killer role, especially because, unlike the guard, it completely cancels out the vigilante's power.

But then you say that the role only allows you to protect yourself every other night -

Meanwhile, you and your buddies could just try to kill me twice in a row--I can't protect myself every night, only every other night.

I understand what you're trying to say here. That the FM can try to kill a Coward twice, and thereby always defeat the role (though its a rather high cost - losing a kill), whereas the Vig only gets one shot to try to kill the Coward. But what you're missing here is that there will always be a 50/50 chance that a FM/Coward can't use his power on any given night. So 50% of the time the Vig will be able to kill him, and 50% of the time he won't be able to kill him. Add to that the fact that he can still kill the other FM, and the FACT is that the Vig will be able to kill the FM a total of 5/6 of the time.

You're saying that a FM/Coward destroys the Vig power. But you're lying. Even with a FM/Coward, the Vig has the power to kill the FM in 83% of all cases.

[Lady Gaga]

Those aren't outstanding odds, but they also aren't that bad. Could definitely see a FM opting for the Coward claim in that situation, if he really thought he was going to be lynched.

Are you kidding me? Those are outstanding odds. Or I would've taken those odds as an FM without a moment's hesitation. Bigger gambles have been taken.

That being said, you make a good argument. However, I do think having all of the roles in play (with an FM-guard rather than an innocent guard) is still pretty balanced for a 3 FM game. 3 FMs are a lot for only 14 players.

ETA: Hasty, why are you voting Upcliff?

[Magic Mirror]

ETA: Hasty, why are you voting Upcliff?

Because I think he's evil.

And new shit has come to light! Apparently I'm wrong about the guard and it doesn't work the way in this game like it has in every game I've played in the past. Sunglass could have been guarded on night 1 and he would have lost his kill the same way as if he had been healed. I don't know if Sunglass checked with the mods about this possibility, because I've never knowingly played in a game in which the guard worked this way against the vig, but...well....if you were killer Upcliff and you had someone rabidly attacking you on day 1 like Sunglass, wouldn't you get your partner (or yourself) to block Sunglass on the offchance that he's the vig?

I guess that rules out my "Ambrose was the evil guard" theory.

[Magic Mirror]

2) You're saying its a pointless role for the FM "because it would work perfectly"? How does that make any sense? The exact opposite is true. It's a role that makes sense for the FM because it would work perfectly, in that it would protect one of them from a Vig kill. That's the whole damn point of the role - to protect the player who has it from a kill.

No, the point of the role is clearly that protection comes at a cost, which it doesn't if a FM has the role. Why not just make the role "every other night, you can heal yourself" if protection were the only goal? It's supposed to be a gamble. If you hide behind the wrong person, both of you die. That gamble doesn't work if someone with information has it. I designed a role somewhat like it once--there were two paired innocents, and one of them protected the other. If the killers targetted Player A while Player B was alive, Player A would live. However, if Player B was nightkilled, Player A (if he was still alive) would also die.

[House Connington]

Because I think he's evil.

And new shit has come to light! Apparently I'm wrong about the guard and it doesn't work the way in this game like it has in every game I've played in the past. Sunglass could have been guarded on night 1 and he would have lost his kill the same way as if he had been healed. I don't know if Sunglass checked with the mods about this possibility, because I've never knowingly played in a game in which the guard worked this way against the vig, but...well....if you were killer Upcliff and you had someone rabidly attacking you on day 1 like Sunglass, wouldn't you get your partner (or yourself) to block Sunglass on the offchance that he's the vig?

I guess that rules out my "Ambrose was the evil guard" theory.

Rules out? It's still just as likely as not. Sun may have been guarded, or Up may have been healed. Either is perfectly possible.

As for today's general play so far, I'm getting the feeling that either Upcliff or Hasty is a FM. Upcliff has a good argument for the fake-reveal, but then Hasty was coming off pretty genuine.

Unless something new comes to light, I'd support lynching one today and the other tomorrow. Possibly not the "one tomorrow" if we get an FM today, but hey, they could be partaking in extreme distancing. Very risky, but...

And why are we looking past the fourth FM? If Team Innocent is so unbalanced, perhaps we were given a fourth, unexpected FM to fight off to even the odds? I know for now we just have to concentrate on getting tonight's FM, but I think it'd be silly to totally disregard a fourth.

[House Sunglass]

Are you kidding me? Those are outstanding odds. Or I would've taken those odds as an FM without a moment's hesitation.

Yeah, that's pretty much what I'm saying. If I was a FM in that situation, and I saw the writing on the wall and knew I was probably going to be lynched, I would have taken those odds too.

So yeah, I think a fake reveal was quite possible. Then you add in the other points I made about Hasty yesterday, which include:

1) encouraged the Prester lynch without voting for him (wanted to avoid being on the mob?)

2) didn't talk about the case against Ambrose much

3) kissing up to Sunglass

4) was one of the people who wasn't a part of the Ambrose lynch, and I think at least one of those people is evil

Put it altogether, and I suspect him the most right now. Hasty

[Magic Mirror]

Yes, there's still the possibility that Upcliff was healed on night 1, but I just don't see him as the best healer target after lynching evil Ambrose on day 1. I mean, that's just....weird. I don't want the healer to come out and confirm anything, I'm just musing out loud because while I had thought of Sunglass being guarded on night 1, I didn't realize the guard worked like that until a recent discussion with the mods about it.

I'm not voting for anyone but Upcliff today.

[House Sunglass]

No, the point of the role is clearly that protection comes at a cost, which it doesn't if a FM has the role. Why not just make the role "every other night, you can heal yourself" if protection were the only goal? It's supposed to be a gamble. If you hide behind the wrong person, both of you die. That gamble doesn't work if someone with information has it.

2 reasons why the role isn't just 'every other night you can heal yourself'.

1) Because the mods wanted to make the same role possible for both the innocents and the FM. They weren't going to have 2 different descriptions, depending upon alignment.

2) Because the Coward role still has risk if its given to a FM - if the Vig kills the person who the FM is hiding behind, the FM dies. I didn't even think about this before, but it's yet another point against your claim that FM/Coward role makes the Vig kill useless. The Vig can still kill a FM who is hiding, in spite of the Coward power - he can do it accidentally, by killing the person who the Coward is hiding behind.

So add that to what I said before, about the Vig being able to kill a FM target in 83% of the cases. It's actually higher than that.

[Magic Mirror]

So add that to what I said before, about the Vig being able to kill a FM target in 83% of the cases. It's actually higher than that.

Only for varying definitions of the word "target". I don't think killing a FM by accident counts as part of your argument. That would be a fluke. And the FM would have to be exceedingly stupid to hide behind someone who looking like a good vig kill anyway, as vigilantes tend to express during the previous day who they suspect. How hard is it not to stand behind someone who isn't suspected?

[Lady Gaga]

Yes, there's still the possibility that Upcliff was healed on night 1, but I just don't see him as the best healer target after lynching evil Ambrose on day 1. I mean, that's just....weird. I don't want the healer to come out and confirm anything, I'm just musing out loud because while I had thought of Sunglass being guarded on night 1, I didn't realize the guard worked like that until a recent discussion with the mods about it.

I'm not voting for anyone but Upcliff today.

1) Tunnel-vision must be in fashion right now, because I don't remember seeing it nearly as often in previous games.

2) I could see an Upcliff heal on Night 1. It wouldn't have been my personal choice for a heal, but Upcliff was looking pretty innocent after Ambrose came up guilty, and a solid player as well.

3) Why would Sunglass be guarded on Night 1? The guard shouldn't have expected a vig to act so early in the game, so I assume they were trying to stop the healer. If they were healer hunting, guarding Sunglass was a pure crapshoot. The healer could've been anyone.

4) I don't think the Coward is anything but an innocent role. I do doubt the authenticity of your claim. It came at an awfully opportune time for you.

5) Now I really need to at least get started on that reread on Inch that I've been talking about for the last day or two. I'll never get around to Lefford (who is still worth a reread after the CF result imo) and Uller at this rate.

[Magic Mirror]

4) I don't think the Coward is anything but an innocent role. I do doubt the authenticity of your claim. It came at an awfully opportune time for you.

What, if you had an innocent role and were about to be lynched, you wouldn't claim it? I was pretty optimistic-- I didn't think I was actually going to get lynched for most of day 2 until people failed to select any better suspect. My days of failing to claim my own role, however, are long gone, and I don't see anyone lining up to counterclaim me. Anyone?? Bueller? Anyone?

[House Frey]

To our Healer: Super job! We could not afford to lose another innocent last night.

To Elesham: I have already answered your allegations. You haven't brought forth anything new. I see little point addressing them again when my answers can be read here.

I think it's very clear how I feel about Hasty. Add on to that a fairly safe role reveal in order to save himself from a lynch and I am troubled even more. I hope you don't intend to ignore this again today.

Elesham would be my second choice for a lynch.

That being said, I am going to go lay down and let the codine take effect. I will check back in later.