Shae and Tywin

[Morekyyn]

Happy Ent,

Perhaps the deed was was necessary for Tyrion to be irrevocably "cut" from his family, but with what intent do you think Tyrion went up the ladder in the first place?

[Happy Ent]

[quote name='Krafus' post='1541964' date='Oct 3 2008, 21.34']First Tywin is drugged, and now Shae…[/quote]
Trust me, I've been here for years. Tywin and Shae have always been drugged in this theory.

[quote]In either case, then, the guards would have remembered Varys, and certainly mentioned his passage after Tywin was found dead. So when Cersei came in, it would certainly have been mentioned to her that Varys had brought a whore in for Tywin, immediately making him the number one suspect.[/quote]
Great point! I didn’t consider that.

So Shae entered the rooms by herself, through the door, in plain sight of the guards. (They are still talking about her some time after, which is why I’d prefer them to know of her presence. It’s not really important.) Varys uses the secret passage, maybe he’s already there when she enters. (Shae knows of the passage, she’s used it herself, so that’s no surprise to her either way.) She is poisoned, Varys leaves.

[quote]IMO this is no proof that Tywin was poisoned.[/quote]
Of course not. Nothing is proof here. It’s just one of quite a lot of details that is [i]explained[/i] by the theory. It doesn’t prove the theory. We’re speculating of course.

[quote]Without being condemned to death by his father and scheduled to soon be executed, I doubt Tyrion would have been in the right frame of mind to go and kill Tywin, even if awakened at night by Varys and told that Shae is in Tywin’s bed.[/quote]
You doubt that. I would, too. Because we’ve been in Tyrion’s head for a while.

But would [i]Varys[/i] doubt it? From his POV, Tyrion is madly in love with Shae. It’s a pretty good plan. Who knows what [i]else[/i] Varys could have added to the mix? By this time, it’s not important anymore.

[quote]Forgive me for saying so, but thus far all the evidence you’ve presented for your theory is IMO circumstancial at best.[/quote]
Oh, I forgive you. It’s absolutely circumstantial.

[quote]It all seems a very great deal of trouble to go to just to force a dwarf, even a Lannister, to kill his father. If Varys had simply wanted Tywin dead, he could have arranged the poisoning himself, within needing to jump through all the additional hoops involving Shae and Tyrion.[/quote]
But he didn’t simply what Tywin dead. See above.

[quote]You make it sound as Varys had planned everything, anticipated and adjusted to every unexpected development, and had been about to put the whole thing into action right when Jaime stepped in, resulting in just a few minor last-minute adjustments. And no matter what the outcome, it was guaranteed to result in the discovery of the underground network of tunnels and suspicion befalling Varys, thus requiring him to flee. All of this just stretches my sense of credulity past the breaking point.[/quote]
It would indeed require that Varys is the awesomest of awesome schemers, a master plotter who puts Littlefinger and Locke Lamora to shame. As good a spy and manipulator as (say) the Dragonknight was a fighter. A truly exceptional individual, the greatest player the game has ever seen.

In short, pretty much what everybody already says about Varys.

[i]Your[/i] theory requires Varys to be a bumbling fool, who made no plan to kill Tywin, who hoped that Tyrion would just come to Dany’s side by chance, who lets himself be overpowered by a cripple, can’t blindfold a seventeen-year old, needs a brazier lit to handle his keys, but can conjure ships out of nothing and spends a lot of his working hours facilitating a risky relationship between Tyrion and a third-class whore out of the goodness of his heart. It also makes Tywin a weak old pervert who takes some kind of sick pleasure out of befouling the memory of his wife by bedding his twisted son’s treacherous third-class whore.

In short, pretty much the opposite of what everybody already says about Varys and Tywin.

[quote]IMO, Occam’s Razor applies here.[/quote]
Bah. I use the principle of least violation of character. [i]My[/i] Tywin is pure Tywin. My Varys is pure Varys. [i]Your[/i] theory requires bizarro-Tywin and George W Varys.

[Happy Ent]

[quote name='Morekyyn' post='1541969' date='Oct 3 2008, 21.37']Perhaps the deed was was necessary for Tyrion to be irrevocably "cut" from his family, but with what intent do you think Tyrion went up the ladder in the first place?[/quote]
Kill his father. (Maybe I don’t understand the question.)

[Krafus]

Happy Ent;

[quote]So Shae entered the rooms by herself, through the door, in plain sight of the guards. (They are still talking about her some time after, which is why I’d prefer them to know of her presence. It’s not really important.) Varys uses the secret passage, maybe he’s already there when she enters. (Shae knows of the passage, she’s used it herself, so that’s no surprise to her either way.) She is poisoned, Varys leaves.[/quote]

I still don’t buy it. IMO, if Shae coming in alone had been known to the guards, it would have been mentioned to Cersei when she showed up, before Qyburn pointed out the body to her.

[quote]But would Varys doubt it? From his POV, Tyrion is madly in love with Shae. It’s a pretty good plan. Who knows what else Varys could have added to the mix? By this time, it’s not important anymore. But would Varys doubt it? From his POV, Tyrion is madly in love with Shae. It’s a pretty good plan. Who knows what else Varys could have added to the mix? By this time, it’s not important anymore.[/quote]

To the news of Shae’s presence in Tywin’s bed, or any other attempt to goad him, Tyrion might just as well have wearily said “Bugger it all, I’m just getting out of here and I’ll take my vengeance on my family and this entire city another time.” It’s not what happened, true. But the entire plan hinging on Varys being able to incite Tyrion to go kill his father [i]without[/i] being obvious about it… too convoluted, too high a chance of failure.

[quote]It would indeed require that Varys is the awesomest of awesome schemers, a master plotter who puts Littlefinger and Locke Lamora to shame. As good a spy and manipulator as (say) the Dragonknight was a fighter. A truly exceptional individual, the greatest player the game has ever seen.

In short, pretty much what everybody already says about Varys.[/quote]

Whoa, whoa. I agree, and so do many people in the series, that Varys is one of the best players of the game of thrones around. But you make him sound as if he was Loki, the Norse god of tricksters, with the abilities to match. That’s a stretch.

[quote]Your theory requires Varys to be a bumbling fool, who made no plan to kill Tywin, who hoped that Tyrion would just come to Dany’s side by chance, who lets himself be overpowered by a cripple, can’t blindfold a seventeen-year old, needs a brazier lit to handle his keys, but can conjure ships out of nothing and spends a lot of his working hours facilitating a risky relationship between Tyrion and a third-class whore out of the goodness of his heart.[/quote]

No, I think Varys intended to let Tyrion die, believing that his position at court and the knowledge that came to him as master of spies to be more important in the long run than Tyrion’s life. Tywin’s death could wait. As to being overpowered by a cripple, I’ve already pointed out that, even if Varys had successfully resisted, it would still have resulted in him doing exactly what he did – having to flee and disappear. The ship might indeed have taken a while to secure, which is why I believe Varys didn’t have enough time for your grand scheme in the amount of time between Jaime’s blackmail and Tyrion’s freeing. As to facilitating the relationship between Tyrion and Tysha, Varys had little choice if he wanted to retain his position (and his life). Even if Varys didn’t give a rat’s ass, Tyrion could have ordered Bronn or someone else to kill Varys at any time.

[quote]It also makes Tywin a weak old pervert who takes some kind of sick pleasure out of befouling the memory of his wife by bedding his twisted son’s treacherous third-class whore.[/quote]

I agree it was surprising, but IMO it makes more sense than your grand conspiracy theory. Twenty-three years is a very long time to be alone in bed. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tywin did actually spend a number of those years in solitary mourning, but eventually he succumbed to temptation – and, being Tywin Lannister, he did everything in his considerable power to keep it secret, which is why we never knew about it until Tyrion showed up that night.

[quote]Bah. I use the principle of least violation of character. My Tywin is pure Tywin. My Varys is pure Varys. Your theory requires bizarro-Tywin and George W Varys.[/quote]

So be it. Hopefully, information will come to light in future volumes proving one or the other of us right.

[Piper]

[quote name='Krafus' post='1542052' date='Oct 3 2008, 16.35']As to being overpowered by a cripple, I’ve already pointed out that, even if Varys had successfully resisted, it would still have resulted in him doing exactly what he did – having to flee and disappear.[/quote]
I think the argument is that Jaime was waiting in Varys room, sharpening his sword so loud that Varys would have noticed, and been more careful about just blithely entering through the front door the way he did. He might have no good choices once Jaime's on him, but he can avoid Jaime getting the jump.

Unless he figured what Jaime would want, and let himself be caught, as the theory goes.

[Fleeing Finn]

There's one fundamental flaw in the "Varys planted Shae" theory. It assumes GRRM would be stupid enough to write that kind of nonsense and expect us to swallow it.

[Piper]

[quote name='Fleeing Finn' post='1542217' date='Oct 3 2008, 19.31']There's one fundamental flaw in the "Varys planted Shae" theory. It assumes GRRM would be stupid enough to write that kind of nonsense and expect us to swallow it.[/quote]

Still makes more sense to me than Joff sending the footpad to finish off Bran.

[Kuzbad]

I can see the theory going other way... however, rereading the scene at the end of aSoS, I don't get the feeling it was a set-up.

Shae doesn't seem like she was drugged. She doesn't seem groggy, she reacts normally. She knows exactly where she is, she knows she's in trouble, and she knows Tywin will be coming back soon. The guards know she is there too. Surely if she was drugged she would at least be slightly confused? Or even FEIGN confusion?

Plus Tyrion's quote [i]"He found his father where he knew he'd find him"[/i] ... (in the privy). Maybe Tywin was known for taking long, contemplative...trips to the privy.

Wouldn't it be MORE surprising that Tywin would be completely uninterested in sex for 20+ years than that he secretly makes use of prostitutes?

[Krafus]

[quote name='Piper' post='1542093' date='Oct 3 2008, 17.15']I think the argument is that Jaime was waiting in Varys room, sharpening his sword so loud that Varys would have noticed, and been more careful about just blithely entering through the front door the way he did. He might have no good choices once Jaime's on him, but he can avoid Jaime getting the jump.

Unless he figured what Jaime would want, and let himself be caught, as the theory goes.[/quote]

I'll have to reread that passage. But IIRC, Jaime used a dagger and set up his ambush once he heard Varys coming. If Varys was distracted by thoughts of his own and/or sounds from elsewhere, he might have overlooked the brief noise coming from his room.

[Piper]

[quote name='Kuzbad' post='1542270' date='Oct 3 2008, 20.34']Wouldn't it be MORE surprising that Tywin would be completely uninterested in sex for 20+ years than that he secretly makes use of prostitutes?[/quote]

I don't know. Seems to fit what we've learned of him so far. His hair recedes a milimeter, he shaves the whole thing off. His wife dies, he becomes celibate.

Or, if he was that horny, why wouldn't he just remarry? That could add an alliance to house Lannister and still let him get his rocks off in a way that didn't involve whores.

ETA:

[quote name='Krafus' post='1542291' date='Oct 3 2008, 21.07']I'll have to reread that passage. But IIRC, Jaime used a dagger and set up his ambush once he heard Varys coming. If Varys was distracted by thoughts of his own and/or sounds from elsewhere, he might have overlooked the brief noise coming from his room.[/quote]

I'll have to take another look at it too. And its always possible Jaime could have taken Varys at the right moment. But Varys is the spymaster, someone who's life blood is intrigue and espionage. I'm generally inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Rinso]

Look, all this talk about Varys "planting" Shae in Tywin's bedroom... well, to me it sounds stretched and forced. Unnecessary as well. It diminishes the nice idea of Tywin secretly being a hypocrite (and him getting kicks of bedding the Imp's whore and probably letting her wear the Chain of the Hand). It also makes absolutely everyone in that situation to look like mindless puppets who do [i]only[/i] what Varys thinks they are gonnna do and also makes Varys like the god of all masterminds. He is good, but not that good, IMO.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

[Sword of the Evening]

Occam's Razor: The simplest explanation is most often correct.

What's more reasonable?

Varys did all this planning to arrange for Tyrion to kill his father? Or that Tywin is a hypocrite?

Personally, I think Tywin slept with whores.

For those who think Tywin is of such high moral character and that he would not sleep with a whore, consider one of his favorite sayings: "Every tool has it purpose."

What purpose does Shae serve? What type of tool?

Why is it so hard to believe that Tywin is a hypocrite?

Tywin acts like he has honor, BUT he uses Gregor Clegane in order to spread fear to his enemies.
Tywin acts like he has honor, BUT he makes a pact with someone who breaks the guest right.
Tywin acts like he has honor, BUT his actions are more focused on keeping/gaining power rather than being honorable. ( Look where honor got Ned and you can understand why )

A poster above mentioned that Tywin was not mad that his son slept with Shae and other prostitutes, but that he was mad because he made it publicly known that he did. If you look at a lot of Tywin's actions you'll see that a lot of the things he says has dark shadows connected to them. Tywin is all about keeping power and doing what it takes to accomplish the objective. Winning has nothing to do with honor.

Shae serves a purpose. Tywin is not going to mistake what that purpose is, so to him, his actions are forgivable.

[Guest Other-in-law]

[quote name='Krafus' post='1542052' date='Oct 3 2008, 16.35']No, I think Varys intended to let Tyrion die, believing that his position at court and the knowledge that came to him as master of spies to be more important in the long run than Tyrion’s life.[/quote]
[i]"Tyrion." If he was afraid, Tywin Lannister gave no hint of it. "Who released you from your cell?"
"I'd love to tell you, but I swore a holy oath."
"[b]The eunuch[/b]," his father decided. "[b]I'll have his head for this[/b]."[/i]

You would have Varys be an imbecile. If he wanted to stay alive at court, he would have never let Tyrion out, he would have immediately ratted on Jaime to his father for trying to force him. Tywin's reaction to betrayal comes as no surprise, he doesn't really think Varys is all that indispensable.
Sword of the Evening,
[quote]A poster above mentioned that Tywin was not mad that his son slept with Shae and other prostitutes, but that he was mad because he made it publicly known that he did.[/quote]
Not really. Do you have a single quote to back that up? Anything at all where Tywin gives permission to use whores as long as he is discreet? Because there are a number of instances where he issues a blanket ban on whoring:

[i]"You are[/i] done[i] with whores. The next one I find in your bed, I'll hang."[/i]

That's not exactly permission to continue discreetly.

[Morekyyn]

Happy Ent,

You understood my question, I think. My point is that Tyrion didn´t need to se Shae in Tywins bed to want to kill him. The big motivator for Tyrion was Tysha(Jamie´s story), which seem, to me at least, to be very far fetched if we are to believe that Varys manipulated Jamie to tell that story at this specific time.

[Happy Ent]

[quote name='Morekyyn' post='1542482' date='Oct 4 2008, 10.12']The big motivator for Tyrion was Tysha(Jamie´s story), which seem, to me at least, to be very far fetched if we are to believe that Varys manipulated Jamie to tell that story at this specific time.[/quote]
... and indeed, nobody claims anything like that.

Varys’s plan was to have Tyrion kill Tywin over Shae, which is why he spent so much energy in [i]Clash[/i] and [i]Storm[/i] to keep their relationship alive. (Almost all interaction between Varys and Tyrion, from the first moment they meet, is about Shae.) Varys’s plan turned out to be unnecessary (it also may not have worked — we don’t know).

[Morekyyn]

Ahhh... I think I finally get your point. It´s very far fetched isn´t? At least it seem to me that poor Varys has put in a lot of effort to get a VERY unsure outcome.

[Happy Ent]

[quote name='Morekyyn' post='1542508' date='Oct 4 2008, 12.18']At least it seem to me that poor Varys has put in a lot of effort to get a VERY unsure outcome.[/quote]
You mean the effort required to keep the Tyrion–Shae relationship alive? If not for [i]that[/i] outcome (unsure as it may be) then what else was his motivation? Did he put in a lot of effort for [i]no[/i] good reason?

Also, I think Varys’s plot is quite economical compared to the Littlefinger–Tyrell plot to kill Joffrey. Your mileage may vary.

[The Anti-Targ]

On the out of character thing for Tywin to be bedding whores, and in particular Tyrion's leavings: Have you not heard of the phenomenon of children from abusive homes becoming abusers themselves? ditto for alcoholics, and any number of other self/family destructive behaviours.

It is not surprising, or unreasonable to find out Tywin lead a bit of a double life in this respect. He is drawn to, and at the same time repulsed by, his father's past. There may be other reasons to support Varys planting Shae, but maintaining that Tywin would never screw whores because of his past public attitude towards whores as a consequence of what his father did is not one. Same goes for the wearing of the Hand's chain, it is quite consistent for the psychology of this sort of thing for Tywin to take his acting out to this level.

One also must wonder what purpose Varys planting Shae serves. Tyrion killed Tywin not because of Shae, though perhaps Varys may have thought he needed to plant her to ensure Tyrion would kill Tywin. But outside of the scene itself what does it matter? Lots of stuff in this story is not what it seems, but normally there is an underlying purpose to it. I don't see a purpose to the plant.

From here on what is the consequence of Varys planting Shae? There is no consequence unless Tyrion finds out, he'll only find out if Varys tells him, and why would Varys tell him? Because the only likely response would be for Tyrion to kill Varys, and I'm sure Varys would rather not die.

And why would Tywin not suggest they go back into his bedchamber with Shae being there? Tywin knows Tyrion came from his bedchamber. So he knows Tyrion has seen Shae. Being the smart guy he is he would have deduced Tyrion had killed Shae. So what the hell, go back into the bedchamber and have a chat over the dead body of Tyrion's whore. You think this would offend Tywin's sensibilities?

Even if Tywin thought Tyrion had not killed Shae, Tywin thinks Tyrion is incapable of killing his own father. Going back into the bedroom with Shae there would only cause Tyrion's thinking to become clouded, making it much easier to outwit his son. Once Tyrion is back under control Twyin can dispose of Shae or use her to control Tyrion.

Also planting Shae is pointless unless you know Tyrion is going to go there. The only reason for Tyrion to go there is if he learns the truth about his first love. So Varys would only plant Shae if he knew Jaime was going to tell him the truth. But knowing this means he knows Tyrion has enough rage to kill Tywin without having to bring Shae into the mix. Unless for some reason Varys needs to kill off Shae.

If Varys didn't know Jaime would tell Tyrion the truth then he would have no reason to believe Tyrion would want to go to Tywin's bedchamber without some other form of encouragement, and he never gives any kind of subtle encouragement.

Maybe GRRM likes to plant these dead-end plot twists just to mess with people' heads. But it just seems there is no reason not to take the scene at face value.

Tell me how the Varys plants Shae theory affects the remaining story and I'll reconsider the merits of the idea, but right now I don't think it stacks up.

[Krafus]

[quote name='Other-in-law' post='1542435' date='Oct 4 2008, 00.21'][i]"Tyrion." If he was afraid, Tywin Lannister gave no hint of it. "Who released you from your cell?"
"I'd love to tell you, but I swore a holy oath."
"[b]The eunuch[/b]," his father decided. "[b]I'll have his head for this[/b]."[/i]

You would have Varys be an imbecile. If he wanted to stay alive at court, he would have never let Tyrion out, he would have immediately ratted on Jaime to his father for trying to force him. Tywin's reaction to betrayal comes as no surprise, he doesn't really think Varys is all that indispensable.[/quote]

If Varys had ratted on Jaime to Tywin, Jaime would only have had to come up with some lie about why he'd gone to see Varys. Whose tale do you think Tywin would have been more inclined to believe, that of the Spider he mistrusted or his own son's? Even if Tywin didn't think Jaime was telling him the whole truth, we know from the way he reacted to Stannis's letter that Tywin was willing to close his eyes to Jaime's failings (and Cersei's).

And once he was off the hook one way or another, Jaime would quickly have arranged Varys's demise. I've said it before and I've said it again; the moment Jaime made his threat, Varys was caught between a rock and a hard place, and screwed where it came to remaining at court (and remaining alive if he lingered).

[shadowbinding shoe]

Re: Why does Varys walk into the (noisy) ambush Jaime sets for him?

What does Varys knows before he opens the door to his room? That Jaime is waiting for him inside? Or perhaps someone else? What he knows for sure is that it is not an assassin about to kill him. Such an assassin would be more quiet. And not be leisurely cleaning his weapons. So, it's someone who wants to talk to him, maybe get something from him, not kill him.

Is the sensible course of action to put your tail between your legs and run? I think not. If that was Varys' reaction to any threat he faced he wouldn't be able to hold on to the position he currently holds. The sensible reaction, the reaction he in fact follows in the books is to walk into the room and smooth-talk the person inside. Find out what they want, use them to his own advantage.