House Tully Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 [quote name='House Dondarrion' post='1597521' date='Nov 22 2008, 21.36'][b]Qorgyle[/b] I'm feeling a little leery of the Kenning/Clegane votes on Swann, just after Swann puts his vote on Qorgyle. It appears to me that Qorgyle is being protected, either by one or both.[/quote] [quote name='House Dondarrion' post='1597601' date='Nov 22 2008, 22.47'][b]Remove vote[/b] I'm acting like an idiot. Qorgyle is right, CF games rarely have FMs or symps playing defense. But it is possible for one to act that way as a gambit. [b]Kenning[/b] has been acting suspicious, and his push for a Swann lynch looks like a feint.[/quote] Looking back at Dandarrion and his day 1 vote, he first mentioned Qorgyle and the apparent defense he has received from Kenning and Clegane, not something I picked up on, then a little later he agrees with Qorgyle about the FM and Symp not playing a defensive game and then votes Kenning, for reasons, that do not make sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tully Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 [quote name='House Kenning' post='1598229' date='Nov 23 2008, 22.01']Ok..short, yet unconvincing. You aren't exactly fighting tooth and nail as promised.[/quote] On top of that, during my reread over Dandarrion, I also noticed he seemed to be defending Swann. So now I am more than a little troubled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Gaga Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 [quote name='House Kenning' post='1598229' date='Nov 23 2008, 15.01']Ok..short, yet unconvincing. You aren't exactly fighting tooth and nail as promised.[/quote] That was before I realized that I [s]wouldn't[/s] couldn't be trusted in the game again. And that if it came down to end game and I was still here, people voting for me would cause us (the good guys) to loose. I have already said who I thought should go today, me. I already gave my reasons why. If you want me to choose between Donny and Baelish, I'd go for Donny. He certainly looks more guilty. Hell, I'll even vote him. [b]Donny[/b] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Targaryen Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 It is day 2. 8 players remain: Baelish, Cassel, Clegane, Dondarrion, Hunter, Kenning, Tully, Yronwood. 5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night. 3 votes for Dondarrion (Clegane, Cassel, Hunter) 2 votes for Hunter (Yronwood, Dondarrion) 3 players have not voted: Baelish, Kenning, Tully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 [quote name='House Hunter' post='1598240' date='Nov 23 2008, 15.18']That was before I realized that I [s]wouldn't[/s] couldn't be trusted in the game again. And that if it came down to end game and I was still here, people voting for me would cause us (the good guys) to loose. I have already said who I thought should go today, me. I already gave my reasons why. If you want me to choose between Donny and Baelish, I'd go for Donny. He certainly looks more guilty. Hell, I'll even vote him. [b]Donny[/b][/quote]I can see reasons for why you could possibly be innocent, I am not willing to write anyone off at this point. Notice I said PI and PNI, probably innocent and probably not innocent (:P). If you were willing to give your analysis and your thoughts, I'd be willing to listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 So are we just not playing this game anymore and we'll just pick and choose who to lynch from here on out with no discussion? Baelish has 4.5 hours left. I swear to god Baelish, if you come back and don't have anything worthwhile to say...just don't. It is just ridiculous to have 2 posts over the course of a day and a half and neither even commented on the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Just woke up from a long nap, and feeling a bit better. [quote name='House Kenning' post='1598330' date='Nov 23 2008, 16.59']So are we just not playing this game anymore and we'll just pick and choose who to lynch from here on out with no discussion?[/quote] 2 questions for you. 1) Do you think it makes sense to leave Hunter alive knowing that he is probably a symp, and that he has a power? 2) Any thoughts on why Dondarrion would reveal his role right away if he is evil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Upcliff Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598338' date='Nov 23 2008, 19.09']Just woke up from a long nap, and feeling a bit better. 2 questions for you. 1) Do you think it makes sense to leave Hunter alive knowing that he is probably a symp, and that he has a power? 2) Any thoughts on why Dondarrion would reveal his role right away if he is evil?[/quote] Hunter has to die. The only question is when. Dondarrion? Could have been to look more trustworthy I guess? That is the one thing that could lead to me trusting him... Then again, why not reveal it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Targaryen Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 [i]Pipermod is going to bed now. If you have any questions or stuff, you have to wait for a while, unless reddy is around.[/i] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598338' date='Nov 23 2008, 18.09']1) Do you think it makes sense to leave Hunter alive knowing that he is probably a symp, and that he has a power?[/quote]I'm not convinced that he is a symp and his power is likely not gamebreaking. [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598338' date='Nov 23 2008, 18.09']2) Any thoughts on why Dondarrion would reveal his role right away if he is evil?[/quote]Like Cassel said, perhaps he thought he'd look more trustworthy. Beyond those two, who do you think is guilty and should be lynched today? Baelish? Someone who came in later to the Swann mob (Cassel, er..you, or Tully)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Gaga Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Well, Tully is probably not FM. Why would he have rushed in to ax his partner if he could have waited 2 minutes (or 2 hours) until after day ended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 [quote name='House Cassel' post='1598349' date='Nov 23 2008, 17.26']Hunter has to die. The only question is when.[/quote] Okay, and I'll say it again - the answer is now. I still haven't seen any response to alleviate my concern over his power. If we think he's a symp, then there is no good reason to leave him alive. In a normal game, I wouldn't be quite as concerned. But in a game where everyone has a role, when you strongly suspect somebody of being a symp, you've got to lynch him, IMO. [quote]Dondarrion? Could have been to look more trustworthy I guess? That is the one thing that could lead to me trusting him... Then again, why not reveal it?[/quote] Earlier, I mentioned 2 reasons why an evil player wouldn't want to reveal a role that early in the game. 1) It restricts his ability to fake claim a role later. He can't try to save himself from the lynch by saying that he's the super powered Finder/Healer/BP. And he can't counterclaim anybody. He's committed to a role claim right off the bat. Evil players don't like to do that...they prefer to remain flexible. 2) It gives us information to use against him. Regardless of whether or not he's telling the truth about his power, he has given us information, and that information has the potential to lead us down a path that could be harmful to his cause. If you need an example, just look to the current situation. He tells us his power right off the bat. Later he becomes a suspect. And now you want to lynch him because of the power he told us. Would an evil player really want to voluntarily give us that type of information right away, without ever being asked for it, when it could so easily come back to haunt him later? You're right its possible that he just made a mistake. But its hard for me to base my analysis off of the assumption that the FM are dumb/inexperienced. I tend to assume they their play is at the very least average. And I can't see an average evil player doing something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598367' date='Nov 23 2008, 18.53']Okay, and I'll say it again - the answer is now. I still haven't seen any response to alleviate my concern over his power. If we think he's a symp, then there is no good reason to leave him alive. In a normal game, I wouldn't be quite as concerned. But in a game where everyone has a role, when you strongly suspect somebody of being a symp, you've got to lynch him, IMO.[/quote]Everyone has a role, so the roles are generally weakened or gimmicky, I really don't find that to be a compelling reason. If he is a symp, he went pretty much as far and blatantly as he could to defend Swann, meaning he knew he was setting himself up to be lynched or ignored. He put down all his chips to save one master, lost and now he's worthless to the other. Not a good move for a symp to make, sometimes you just gotta cut lose. [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598367' date='Nov 23 2008, 18.53']1) It restricts his ability to fake claim a role later. He can't try to save himself from the lynch by saying that he's the super powered Finder/Healer/BP. And he can't counterclaim anybody. He's committed to a role claim right off the bat. Evil players don't like to do that...they prefer to remain flexible.[/quote]This is true more so for symps than FM IMO. A false claim as a FM usually has more downside than upside, depending on the game. This is a game where I don't see false claims having a large role. [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598367' date='Nov 23 2008, 18.53']2) It gives us information to use against him. Regardless of whether or not he's telling the truth about his power, he has given us information, and that information has the potential to lead us down a path that could be harmful to his cause. If you need an example, just look to the current situation. He tells us his power right off the bat. Later he becomes a suspect. And now you want to lynch him because of the power he told us. Would an evil player really want to voluntarily give us that type of information right away, without ever being asked for it, when it could so easily come back to haunt him later?[/quote]This is a good point, however he may have felt that it was more advantageous to be viewed as open and trustworthy. He also may have thought, given the nature of his power, that revealing roles could ultimately work to his advantage. You still haven't answered my question. You've given why we should lynch a potential symp, but you've given no thought to who could be the FM. Who looks like an FM? Who looks like they could be Hunter's potential master? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 [quote name='House Kenning' post='1598360' date='Nov 23 2008, 17.41']I'm not convinced that he is a symp and his power is likely not gamebreaking.[/quote] Okay. Well, I do think he's a symp. Its the role that best explains his actions. An innocent isn't likely to hold back from voting to get a lynch at the end of the day. Do you feel otherwise? If so, why? As for his power, it doesn't need to be 'gamebreaking' to be a threat. I doubt he was given a completely useless role. He's likely able to do [i]something[/i] that can impact the game, right? And if he can, then that makes him a threat. [quote]Beyond those two, who do you think is guilty and should be lynched today? Baelish? Someone who came in later to the Swann mob (Cassel, er..you, or Tully)?[/quote] I think we're idiots if we don't lynch Hunter today. Baelish is a suspect, but its impossible to say much about him, given his lack of participation. If its not Baelish, then I have to admit that Qorgyle is a suspect by default, given that he never voted for Swann (this is true even if he was never given the opportunity to cast that vote). Same goes for Dondarrion, though I personally just don't see it, based on everything I've already posted. Of the people who voted for Swann, I'm not necessarily willing to mark Cassel or Clegane as VPI. Clegane's vote on Swann could have been a move to create distance. He may not have foreseen that Swann was going to be a target for the lynch - he was the first vote, and the reason he provided was relatively weak, so there wasn't any assurance that people would follow him. As for Cassel, he was pushing the Qorg lynch when it was Qorg or Swann. He didn't move over to Swann until after Qorg disappeared. The fact that he was pushing Qorg over Swann when they were both options is a point against him. I don't suspect Tully, because he could have easily just refrained from casting a vote if he was evil. We might have been annoyed that he missed the end of the day, but we wouldn't have necessarily been suspicious if he had just claimed to have been busy. I don't think a FM would have shown up to finish off his partner like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 [quote name='House Kenning' post='1598374' date='Nov 23 2008, 18.10']Everyone has a role, so the roles are generally weakened or gimmicky, I really don't find that to be a compelling reason.[/quote] Thats ridiculous. There have been plenty of all roles games in the past where the roles are powerful. Why assume that they are all weakened or gimmicky? Or hell, what if he is limited in some way, but still dangerous? What if he's a symp-ninja who can only use his power on day 3? What if he's a symp who can protect his master from being lynched on 1 day of his choice? There are a million possible scenarios that we could come up with where he has a limited power, and yet its still a threat to us. [quote]If he is a symp, he went pretty much as far and blatantly as he could to defend Swann, meaning he knew he was setting himself up to be lynched or ignored. He put down all his chips to save one master, lost and now he's worthless to the other. Not a good move for a symp to make, sometimes you just gotta cut lose.[/quote] Thats what symps do. They sacrifice themselves for their masters. Some symps play a more reserved game, while others go all out in defense of any FM master who comes under suspicion. Can you really say that one playstyle is more likely than the other? Lets look at a hypothetical situation. 2 FM are alive. A Finder reveals and claims that 1 of the FM is guilty. Would you fault a symp for counterclaiming in an attempt to save his master and get the Finder lynched? I doubt it. [quote]This is true more so for symps than FM IMO. A false claim as a FM usually has more downside than upside, depending on the game. This is a game where I don't see false claims having a large role.[/quote] I disagree. A FM may not want to counterclaim and get into a classic 'finder battle', but that doesn't mean he won't ever want to fake claim. There have been countless times when FM have either fake claimed or altered their role claim (in a game where they have an extra power beyond just being FM), and in doing so, have greatly aided their own cause. In general, FM don't let themselves get pinned down with an early role claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598395' date='Nov 23 2008, 19.37']Okay. Well, I do think he's a symp. Its the role that best explains his actions. An innocent isn't likely to hold back from voting to get a lynch at the end of the day. Do you feel otherwise? If so, why?[/quote]It wouldn't be the first time it has happened. [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598395' date='Nov 23 2008, 19.37']As for his power, it doesn't need to be 'gamebreaking' to be a threat. I doubt he was given a completely useless role. He's likely able to do [i]something[/i] that can impact the game, right? And if he can, then that makes him a threat.[/quote]Well, he has claimed a role that really does nothing to help him out, what are your thoughts on him claiming and getting nothing out of it? Some roles are going to be useless, some roles are going to be unknown, concern over his role is a lot less of a worry to me than Dondarrion's where he can steal roles. Still not a great concern though, to be honest. [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598395' date='Nov 23 2008, 19.37']I think we're idiots if we don't lynch Hunter today.[/quote]There is one FM left, only a few suspects. I'm not sure we should waste a lynch on a potential symp when we could win the game. [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598395' date='Nov 23 2008, 19.37']Baelish is a suspect, but its impossible to say much about him, given his lack of participation. If its not Baelish, then I have to admit that Qorgyle is a suspect by default, given that he never voted for Swann (this is true even if he was never given the opportunity to cast that vote). Same goes for Dondarrion, though I personally just don't see it, based on everything I've already posted.[/quote]Qorgyle did vote for Swann actually, I mention this in my post during the night. First Qorgyle voted Swann as the 4th vote in the very early on, and short lived, mob. Later he voted for Swann right before he disappeared and brought the count to 4Q-3S. Obviously at this point there isn't much we can do about Qorgyle though. So what clears Dondarrion other than a misguided reveal? Other than that, he fits as an FM. You don't find it odd that he voted Qorgyle, sure of his guilt, then later switched his vote to me, theorizing I was setting up two innocents (Q and Swann) to be the lynch candidates? [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598395' date='Nov 23 2008, 19.37']Of the people who voted for Swann, I'm not necessarily willing to mark Cassel or Clegane as VPI. Clegane's vote on Swann could have been a move to create distance. He may not have foreseen that Swann was going to be a target for the lynch - he was the first vote, and the reason he provided was relatively weak, so there wasn't any assurance that people would follow him.[/quote]Clegane cast his vote on Swann and then left, which seems pretty dangerous to do to your partner. Cassel seemed to be working to facilitate the lynch (asking who would switch) and removed his vote when Qorgyle got to lynch -1, not something he needed to do. [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598395' date='Nov 23 2008, 19.37']I don't suspect Tully, because he could have easily just refrained from casting a vote if he was evil. We might have been annoyed that he missed the end of the day, but we wouldn't have necessarily been suspicious if he had just claimed to have been busy. I don't think a FM would have shown up to finish off his partner like that.[/quote]I agree that Tully would have to be an asshole of a partner to be an FM, so, yes, not too likely. You are still dragging your feet. If you could not vote for Hunter today, who would you vote for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 [quote name='House Kenning' post='1598415' date='Nov 23 2008, 19.11']It wouldn't be the first time it has happened.[/quote] It would be the first time I can remember, where an innocent claimed to be in favor of always lynching day 1, and then failed to do so. What would his motivation be? Could he have really been that sure that Swann was innocent? [quote]Well, he has claimed a role that really does nothing to help him out, what are your thoughts on him claiming and getting nothing out of it? Some roles are going to be useless, some roles are going to be unknown, concern over his role is a lot less of a worry to me than Dondarrion's where he can steal roles. Still not a great concern though, to be honest.[/quote] If he's evil, his entire strategy at this point is apparently to make himself as non-threatening as possible. He's saying things like this - [quote name='Hunter']Please don't revoke my PoDOLL membership. Perhaps you could make me wear the dunce cap and sit in the corner? I could be known as the League Idiot.[/quote] [quote name='Hunter']What can I say? I need to do the exact opposite of what I think I should do, because clearly I do not have any kind of mafia instinct.[/quote] [quote name='Hunter']I have never talked my way out of anything.[/quote] [quote name='Hunter']I will not deny anything that has to do with me playing spectacularily poorly. I freely admit that my play in this game has been, quite frankly, a grand clusterfuck.[/quote] And so on. He's tucking his tail between his legs, hunching his shoulders, and hoping that we opt to think he's not a threat. The role he revealed fits with that strategy. Its vague enough so that, on the one hand, its not a threat, and on the other hand, he can still be flexible with it in the future if necessary. [quote name='Kenning']There is one FM left, only a few suspects. I'm not sure we should waste a lynch on a potential symp when we could win the game.[/quote] Its not 'potential' its 'likely', at least in my view. The odds of him being a symp are high, and given the way the game works, if he is a symp as many of us strongly suspect, then lynching him now doesn't change the number of lynches we have left at all. But the bottom line is that you just aren't concerned about his power. And knowing that, I can understand why you're arguing your current position. I just disagree with it. [quote name='Kenning']Qorgyle did vote for Swann actually, I mention this in my post during the night. First Qorgyle voted Swann as the 4th vote in the very early on, and short lived, mob. Later he voted for Swann right before he disappeared and brought the count to 4Q-3S. Obviously at this point there isn't much we can do about Qorgyle though.[/quote] The first vote for Swann is meaningless. And some people even speculated that it could indicate that he was a Swann partner. I don't count that as a point in his favor. The second vote is more relevant, but at that point, weren't the top 2 candidates Swann and Qorgyle? So what else was he going to do? He would have had to vote for Swann in an attempt to create distance for whichever one of them survived. [quote name='Kenning']So what clears Dondarrion other than a misguided reveal? Other than that, he fits as an FM. You don't find it odd that he voted Qorgyle, sure of his guilt, then later switched his vote to me, theorizing I was setting up two innocents (Q and Swann) to be the lynch candidates?[/quote] I think a whole lot of Dondarrion's reasoning is strange. I really haven't agreed with much of anything that he's said throughout the game, and I've already said that his defense of Swann was suspicious. I just also happen to think there's a point in his favor, that makes me suspect him less. [quote name='Kenning']Clegane cast his vote on Swann and then left, which seems pretty dangerous to do to your partner.[/quote] Why? It was the first vote. He couldn't know that it would start a mob on Swann. And it could have been a good way to create distance. [quote name='Kenning']Cassel seemed to be working to facilitate the lynch (asking who would switch) and removed his vote when Qorgyle got to lynch -1, not something he needed to do.[/quote] Thats meaningless. Nothing he said was going to matter. It was all a matter of who was around and what they were willing to do. He wasn't going to change that. [quote name='Kenning']You are still dragging your feet. If you could not vote for Hunter today, who would you vote for?[/quote] I'm not dragging my feet on anything. Baelish would be next - I implied as much in my post that answered your question. Have you answered the question yourself? Who are you going to vote for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598444' date='Nov 23 2008, 20.49']If he's evil, his entire strategy at this point is apparently to make himself as non-threatening as possible. He's saying things like this - And so on. He's tucking his tail between his legs, hunching his shoulders, and hoping that we opt to think he's not a threat. The role he revealed fits with that strategy. Its vague enough so that, on the one hand, its not a threat, and on the other hand, he can still be flexible with it in the future if necessary.[/quote]Good point. [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598444' date='Nov 23 2008, 20.49']The first vote for Swann is meaningless. And some people even speculated that it could indicate that he was a Swann partner. I don't count that as a point in his favor.[/quote]My gut reaction to Qorgyle's vote is that it was a bit too risky to make as an FM, that and I've gotten an innocent feel from him pretty much throughout. I feel better about you, Tully, Cassel, and maybe Clegane though. [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598444' date='Nov 23 2008, 20.49']The second vote is more relevant, but at that point, weren't the top 2 candidates Swann and Qorgyle? So what else was he going to do? He would have had to vote for Swann in an attempt to create distance for whichever one of them survived.[/quote]He could have voted for you (not sure if it would fit), which would have made the vote 4Q-2S-2Y. I'm curious as to whether he knew about his power or not, doesn't seem like it. EDIT: Swann also placed the third vote on Qorgyle, which made him a legitimate lynch option. Unlikely partnership there. [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598444' date='Nov 23 2008, 20.49']Why? It was the first vote. He couldn't know that it would start a mob on Swann. And it could have been a good way to create distance.[/quote]If I was leaving I would never leave my vote on my partner unless I knew they were entirely safe. [quote name='House Yronwood' post='1598444' date='Nov 23 2008, 20.49']I'm not dragging my feet on anything. Baelish would be next - I implied as much in my last post. Have you answered the question yourself? Who are you going to vote for?[/quote]Yronwood, thanks for being a good sport. To be honest, I have been seriously considering voting for Hunter over Dondarrion. There are a few reasons why I implied otherwise, some worthwhile and some were not. I wanted some discussion and you are clearly thoughtful, so it helped me look at the situation a bit differently and enjoy the game a bit more by provoking discussion. I was briefly concerned you were protecting Dondarrion as well, but that makes zero sense, I'm quite sure you are innocent. Right now, I will not vote Baelish, he should be dead in a little over an hour. For the lynch, I am strongly considering Hunter over Dondarrion. eta- I feel like their still could be an outside chance that Hunter is an FM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 I was looking back and noticed this after Swann unvoted and revoted Ashford at Hunter's behest:[quote name='House Clegane' post='1597295' date='Nov 22 2008, 05.28']Swann, what was the reason for removing your vote but voting Ashford again immedeately after? Are you warged also?[/quote]That doesn't feel like something that someone would post about their partner. Cassel seemed to be pretty focused on both Qorgyle and Swann ever since Qorgyle's first vote, which suggests a partnership there is less likely. I am having a hard time seeing anyone other than Hunter, Dondarrion, or Baelish being guilty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Clegane Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 Hunter, I am sorry for excessive rudeness. I tried to prevent you from doing your work and went too far, it seems. I still prefer lynching Dondy, but if you all feel differently, I'll switch, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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