House Connington Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 [quote name='Ser Dunan the tall' post='1674652' date='Feb 5 2009, 09.40']I think it's a point in Dayne's favor. Killers rarely make that grand mistakes.[/quote] Well yes. I noted that as well in my megapost. If he is a FM, he is not a good one. I would have disregarded it, but if we have new players, they make new player errors, especially if their killing partner is dead and their mentor may not be around at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 That was very nice. Today I like and pretty much agree with Swyft's daily long post. To me it should be one of Dayne or Mertyns today, and Dayne looks slightly worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Oh, and something that Stonetree pointed out. I've been labouring under the misapprehension that Reed was a player... But he isn't. :o Could noone have pointed that out to me earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Wythers Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 [quote name='House Swift' post='1674704' date='Feb 5 2009, 05.25']Oh, and something that Stonetree pointed out. I've been labouring under the misapprehension that Reed was a player... But he isn't. :o Could noone have pointed that out to me earlier?[/quote] Oh dear Swift. That is rather embarassing. :) As to your loong post, well I still agree that Dayne is supicious, and I am undecided on the healer comment. On the one hand, if Dayne is evil, he may well calculate that asking a healer to reveal is too brazen to be considered suspicious, and if the healer is a new player then they might have revealed as soon as someone suggested it. On the other hand Dayne could be a inno who calculated that with 7 innocents and 1 FM we are in a very good position, and a healer reveal giving us a CI might just help us out. Equally with the hammering without discussion - only one person was going to be lynched so I don't think Dayne cost us anything there. All of that said, getting in on the hammer would seem like a very tempting thing for an evil in a CF game to do, especially when the only other option to be lynched was themselves. And [b]Dayne[/b] is suspicious for the reasons I mentioned yesterday and Swift today. Sorry if that sounds a bit middle-of-the-roadish but I'm basically just thinking aloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Wythers Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 [quote name='House Martel' post='1674671' date='Feb 5 2009, 04.19']That was very nice. Today I like and pretty much agree with Swyft's daily long post. To me it should be one of Dayne or Mertyns today, and Dayne looks slightly worse.[/quote] Could you run through the case on Mertyns again please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tyrell Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Some distancing must have happened yesterday. Looking through Stonetree's posts, Stonetree voted for Dunan for being quiet, and then posted a serious case on Martell. Now looking at the lynchmob (5 votes for Stonetree (Swift, Thorne, Martell, Ferren, Dayne)). Personally i'd expect a killer on this mob. Swift posted a joke case on Stonetree, as the third vote, and then spent time defending it as serious. I guess this could be distancing gone wrong, but then we did give Swift every chance to remove the vote. Not sure about Swift right now. :unsure: Thorne points out that Stonetree voted for Dunan for being quiet, but there were quieter players. This vote looks genuine and turned Stonetree into a real top suspect. I don't think it likely that Thorne is guilty. Martell is the one i'm struggling with most. Martell initially posted [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=33998&view=findpost&p=1673522"]here[/url] a desire to vote for Stonetree. But when pressed, votes for me instead. Then when Stonetree makes the case on Martell, Martell votes for Stonetree. If the killers were really committed to distancing, then maybe they could be partnered and planned this exchange. The thing that most makes me want to look more closely at Martell is Stonetree's post [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=33998&view=findpost&p=1674298"]here[/url], encouraging us to look at Martell today. Stonetree knew that the cf would come up guilty, so why say that as a killer? It looks like more distancing to me. However, I think Dayne is a better choice. Ferren makes the lynch absolutely certain with the fourth vote, moving from the 2nd top suspect Dunan. If this is distancing, it's very good. If Ferren is guilty, i'd be extremely surprised. Dayne then comes back and finishes it off. The lynch was inevitable, so a killer wouldn't lose anything by this, so it could easily be distancing. Also, Stonetree's vote on Martell came when Dayne had two votes. Dayne was an alternative and would have made much more sense for a killer trying to save themself. My only problem is that, as others have said, if Dayne's partnered to Stonetree it's a bit obvious. But that shouldn't stop us, really. I think Dayne is the best choice today. [b]Dayne.[/b] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Wythers Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Yeh I agree I still think martell and Dayne are most suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Mirror Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 [quote name='House Ferren' post='1674737' date='Feb 5 2009, 11.23']Could you run through the case on Mertyns again please?[/quote] The case is mainly that he could be easily partnered with Stonetree. He doesn't vote for him, says he's a top poster and doesn't want to lynch him, tries to make a last ditch attempt at preventing his lynch by voting for me and saying he likes Stonetree's case and would like to open another lynch option, etc. The main point against his guilt is that there's virtually no distancing. From the case Stonetree made against me it seems like Mertyns was more an innocent passer-by that Stonetree was hoping to win for his cause out of antipathy towards me (as finally happened). I like [b]Dayne[/b] much better as today's lynch, so I'll lay the penultimate vote on him and we can go over this again after he hangs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tyrell Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Let's let everyone check in before Dayne is hammered, people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Ashford Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 You are too eager to vote, people. L-1 already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 I agree that Dayne is the best choice for today based on what we have so far. I'd definitely like to hear any counterpoints to the cases on him. Even if we don't vote him off today, he isn't the kind of player who should be around near the end game. I'm also slightly wary of Duncan. I don't have a good read on him at the moment, and I'm always fearful that the killers find it easier to hide when they are less active. It's very easy to WIFOM (ask your mentor) Stonetree saying that we should look at Martell. Just noticed that Dayne is L-1 already. I'm not in favour of an early hammer. Edit:Crosspost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tyrell Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 [quote name='Ser Dunan the tall' post='1674769' date='Feb 5 2009, 12.09']You are too eager to vote, people. L-1 already?[/quote] Are you going to suggest an alternative lynch? I'm more than happy to use the whole day if it's useful and we have things to discuss. What do you think of Martell? Could Swift's vote have been distancing? And in your last post yesterday, you said: [quote name='Ser Dunan the tall' post='1673923' date='Feb 4 2009, 20.18']What troubles me is a handful of players who attemped to make accusations based on senseless RP posts. Some of them might be naive, some might be trolling, some might be guilty. I'll return here in next 8-10 hours, to look closer at accusers. I don't think anyone of accused did somethig suspicious, accusers did.[/quote] Are you going to elaborate on this? Who did you find suspicious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Connington Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 I'm now worried that, should Dayne not be a killer, that we are not going to get any worthwhile information from the lynch. Which is why it worries me that people are just piling in. The problem is that noone has come forward with a viable alternate case or anything. I would really really like to hear from Dayne before the lynch is decided, so please don't hammer yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Ashford Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 [quote name='House Mertyns' post='1674773' date='Feb 5 2009, 06.16']Are you going to suggest an alternative lynch?[/quote]Perhaps. Today I can't participate much, alas, for some unexpected RL reason, but I'll still try to reread Ferren and you (my blindspots) and then will give opinions about every player. [quote]What do you think of Martell? Could Swift's vote have been distancing?[/quote]Doubtful. I was close to announce Martel PI before reading your big post. It somewhat changed my view to being less sure, but I still amn't convinced. [quote]Are you going to elaborate on this?[/quote]Of course not. After CF result it became obsolete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Ashford Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Well, I just reread the first page... and there is a bomb. You already mentioned Stonetree voted on Dayne before player was published, but isn't end of story. After being notified about this, he immedeately switched to non-existing Reed. It didn't look suspicious at the time, but now me may deduce that Stonetree really cared about this slip and actively tried to mask it. For me, it's final proof. I am not anymore in a mood to reread anybody else, since I don't think my mind might change. I am ready to hammer in any minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Targaryen Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 It is day 2. 8 players remain: Dayne, Duncan the Tall, Ferren, Martell, Mertyns, Saltcliff, Swift, Thorne.. 5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night. 4 votes for Dayne (Swift, Ferren, Mertyns, Martell) 4 players have not voted: Dayne, Duncan the Tall, Saltcliff, Thorne.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Upcliff Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Holy fucking balls people. L-1 already? Let's take a few and think about this some more. I need to look back for a few things...part of my concern is, IIRC, there wasn't really any distancing from Stonetree to Dayne, Dayne hammered which although it gets him on the lynch (isn't that what we are looking for now?) it rankles people, and he asked for the healer to reveal (it would provide a CI and a VPI :unsure:). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tyrell Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 [quote name='Ser Dunan the tall' post='1674805' date='Feb 5 2009, 13.07']I am ready to hammer in any minute.[/quote] There's no rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Upcliff Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 [quote name='House Mertyns' post='1674740' date='Feb 5 2009, 05.28']Martell is the one i'm struggling with most. Martell initially posted [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=33998&view=findpost&p=1673522"]here[/url] a desire to vote for Stonetree. But when pressed, votes for me instead. Then when Stonetree makes the case on Martell, Martell votes for Stonetree. If the killers were really committed to distancing, then maybe they could be partnered and planned this exchange. The thing that most makes me want to look more closely at Martell is Stonetree's post [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=33998&view=findpost&p=1674298"]here[/url], encouraging us to look at Martell today. Stonetree knew that the cf would come up guilty, so why say that as a killer? It looks like more distancing to me. However, I think Dayne is a better choice.[/quote] Bollocks. This feels like potentially setting up tomorrow's lynch by Mertyns. To suggest that exchange was planned is pretty ridiculous IMO. [quote name='House Mertyns' post='1674740' date='Feb 5 2009, 05.28']Ferren makes the lynch absolutely certain with the fourth vote, moving from the 2nd top suspect Dunan. If this is distancing, it's very good. If Ferren is guilty, i'd be extremely surprised.[/quote] There really wasn't much of a movement yesterday to support my suspicion of Dayne (partly why I am so surprised by this mob), so I'm not sure that I would clear Ferren. He would have looked really bad if he hadn't switched. That said, I am not very suspicious of him, I'm just not clearing him for that. Duncan, explain to me how you so quickly went from here: [quote name='Ser Dunan the tall' post='1674769' date='Feb 5 2009, 06.09']You are too eager to vote, people. L-1 already?[/quote] to here: [quote name='Ser Dunan the tall' post='1674805' date='Feb 5 2009, 07.07']Well, I just reread the first page... and there is a bomb. You already mentioned Stonetree voted on Dayne before player was published, but isn't end of story. After being notified about this, he immedeately switched to non-existing Reed. It didn't look suspicious at the time, but now me may deduce that Stonetree really cared about this slip and actively tried to mask it. For me, it's final proof. I am not anymore in a mood to reread anybody else, since I don't think my mind might change. I am ready to hammer in any minute.[/quote] Convinced by something that really isn't that strong? Come on. Let us also not forget that Dayne could be the healer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Tyrell Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 [quote name='House Saltcliff' post='1674823' date='Feb 5 2009, 13.29']Bollocks. This feels like potentially setting up tomorrow's lynch by Mertyns. To suggest that exchange was planned is pretty ridiculous IMO.[/quote] I said "could be". Why do you think Stonetree asked us to look at Martell today, when the lynch was inevitable and knowing that the cf result would come up guilty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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