GoT Mafia Game 70

[House Stokeworth]

After a quick re-read (more of a skim actually), here are my thoughts:

Lannister would be a fine compromise lynch, especially since we haven't got anyone else really rolling to the gallows.

Stokeworth I have no read on, except for that post in which he objected to my healing plan, which is quite suspicious.

Cerwyn has a lot of minor points against him, but somehow I can't really suspect him.

Tully is...fishy. In the light of Stark being innocent, his initial attack on Stark seems quite opportunistic, and there are several other instances where I've doubted him. Since, of 3 players who attacked Stark the most, I know I'm innocent, and tend to trust Cerwyn, Tully is quite high on my suspect list.

But my biggest concern right now are...Erenford and Yronwood. I feel that their animosity is manifactured. It all started during the RP, and seems to continue even now, but the only thing I can remember is...they don't like each other. That's it. No real reasons, no real cases...and probably no danger of lynch for any of them. So, yeah, I have a strong suspicion that Erenford and Yronwood are distancing FM partners, and will follow it up with a case shortly.

[Lady Gaga]

Yronwood, on page 15 you claim that rereading frey is on your todo list. Done it yet?

Martell's very fast to attack me once stark flips innocent. The cynic in me says he knew all along, and was waiting on it. I still stand by the fact that short of targ's statement naming stark innocent, nothing else would have convinced me that he was anything but scum. So to so quickly turn that into an attack...

Tully still only seems to do anything other than sheep a safe opinion when actually questioned and put on the spot by others. Why aren't you as forthcoming without being probed?

So, next post i'll stick together some conclusions on the players i've found noteable. i'll also unveil the masterplan. Please do not vote until it has been read!!!

[House Corbray]

Tyrell gets a pass from me because of is healer plan which makes me think he is innocent. He wins my Most Trusted Player Award right now and it will take more than tunnell-vision to change that.

But I'm quoting him anyway b/c of what he says which is part of the issue here. It's lazy to just assume a player is guilty and base all of your analysis off that without ever considering the other possibilities. That's not the type of gameplay I'd expect from Tully who seems to be pretty smart, and it's definitely not what I'd expect from Cerwyn who has taken the role of leader and projects confidence and thoroughness.

Also it's just not a smart way to play the game (no offence to any of you personally). You concluded that Stark was guilty and based everything off that b/c of his play on day 1. Is it likely that you'll nail somebody on day 1? I know it is possible and I haven't been playing long enough to know the full history of games but it seems unlikely to me that it happens very often. Why throw all of your day 2 analysis behind that theory?

Third it just seems like an evil strategy more than an inno one, to find an easy target and throw everything at him until he's dead, really just hammer him becuase it's a good way to participate and look smart and gain trust. When I'm innocent I have more doubt and less confidence, always 2nd guessing myself.

I'm not saying it's bad to continue to go after somebody you suspect, especially if you think his responses make him look even worse, but to do it to exclusion of other thoughts is what bothers me.

You're right, at least in so far as I'm playing a terrible game. I thought this was going to be a quiet week and it turns out that it stinks I can't reread and barely have time to write, which isn't an excuse I expect to get me much slack, but is the situation. Should I survive another 18 hours or so things ought to change dramatically.

I deny, however that I've built an elaborate web of suspicion on the assumption that Stark is guilty. I responded to Cerwyn's post about who would look bad in the case Stark was guilty and generally agreed with her. Other than that I've only been on Stark. I agree with you that building assumptions on assumptions is not a good way to get things done.

Tully seems to spend a lot of time following in other people's slipstream, agreeing with their generally well received arguments.

The only slipstream I could really be accused of following in is yours and I think it's a bit of a stretch to suggest that your arguments are generally well received. At best you've been breaking about even. I also don't think I've done a lot of out and out agreeing. I can think of a few occasions but mostly I feel that when I have been posting I've been posting specific ideas.

[House Corbray]

Tully still only seems to do anything other than sheep a safe opinion when actually questioned and put on the spot by others. Why aren't you as forthcoming without being probed?

Oh for crying out loud. I don't like this at all Cerwyn. Every post you seem to down play my contribution more and more until you have me as a docile sheep who hasn't said anything but "me too" all game.

This is the last time you're going to hear me bleat about my stupid schedule but I've barely had time to keep up with the thread, and all I can do is react at the moment. It's a crappy way to play the game but it's the extent of my contribution until I get tomorrow over and done with. None of my posts have been especially sheepy though I'll admit that my target wasn't an obscure one. Just because I'm attacking the same target as you doesn't mean I'm sheeping you.

And you've let my words stand in for you a couple of times, so I must have expressed some idea worth noticing.

[House Stokeworth]

Ooooh, ooooh, I have a masterpan too!

I went back to page one to re-read Erenford's and Yronwood's interactions, and guess what I found? Binoculars! That's right, for only 3 points, we get to see all night actions...and their targets. Since the FM can't heal, their assigned heals will not be healed...and we've caught ourselves all the FM.

I'd accept being the one to waste 3 points on the binoculars, which is a role most suitable for me anyway, since I'm the most trusted one ATM, if you'd agree to follow me on my Erenford/Yronwood case, earning me 2 points for being a first vote and getting them lynched. It's a moot point anyway, since the FM are now practically dead. :)

[Lady Gaga]

So, conclusions:

Tully is a little too safe. Doesn't give anything away unless pushed, preferring to sheep others and stick to uncontroversial statements. While not a leading candidate, I'd support a Tully lynch over a no lynch or a someone not on this list lynch.

Lannister is thee least contributive player i have ever seen avoid a modkill. He also got points for not being on the mob.

Dondarrion has acted odd a few times. I could support a lynch here i guess.

Stonetree wasn't on the mob, which puts a little distrust his way from me.

Stokeworth wasn't on the mob, so i don't fully trust him either.

Erenford is being deceptive (or reading deeper than the authors intended) in his recent persuit of me. He gives me more of an enthusiastic innocent vibe though.

Tyrell made a terrible "tully is fishy" joke, and should hang for it.

Martell's attack on me as stark flipped seemed staged. Anyone else find it in any way notable?

So I guess my conclusion is that right now, Lannister is a decent choice for a lynch. Martell and Dondarrion also justify watching closely.

So, the uberplan...

If we're not sure on a lynch, lets just go to night. By none of us being on an innocent train, we all gain one point. Any of us who stick with one vote gets a second point. If we've ever got a player down to 1 point, we should all vote the person directly below us (ie the guy we heal), then leave the vote there for night. At that point we all gain 2 points, lose 1 for healing, and end up 1 ahead.

So yeah, if at the start of tomorrow we all vote for the guy we are healing, then don't change, then we have a nightkill-less night (or a killer exposing themselves), no lynch, and an extra point each. There's really no downside to it that I can see.

Today, most of us still havent placed a vote at all, so avoid placing one until we know if we'll lynch or just night it, so most of us can grab that second point too.

[Lady Gaga]

Ooooh, ooooh, I have a masterpan too!

I went back to page one to re-read Erenford's and Yronwood's interactions, and guess what I found? Binoculars! That's right, for only 3 points, we get to see all night actions...and their targets. Since the FM can't heal, their assigned heals will not be healed...and we've caught ourselves all the FM.

I'd accept being the one to waste 3 points on the binoculars, which is a role most suitable for me anyway, since I'm the most trusted one ATM, if you'd agree to follow me on my Erenford/Yronwood case, earning me 2 points for being a first vote and getting them lynched. It's a moot point anyway, since the FM are now practically dead. :)

That was my second masterplan, that I was trying to keep secret until I used them. I'm a post or two away from my 3rd point so i can afford them. My plan was to not heal (havent really sent it in), but instead use binoculars. In the morning, I could simply reveal who the killers were. :(

edit: by revealing, if your healer is a killer, you'll just be found dead. And once everyone realises about them, tomorrow may just be a binocular-fest anyway. thats why i stayed quiet. :(

[House Stokeworth]

If we're not sure on a lynch, lets just go to night. By none of us being on an innocent train, we all gain one point.

Actually, I believe we only get a point for not being on an innocent train if there IS one. :P

[House Stokeworth]

That was my second masterplan, that I was trying to keep secret until I used them. I'm a post or two away from my 3rd point so i can afford them. My plan was to not heal (havent really sent it in), but instead use binoculars. In the morning, I could simply reveal who the killers were. :(

edit: by revealing, if your healer is a killer, you'll just be found dead. And once everyone realises about them, tomorrow may just be a binocular-fest anyway. thats why i stayed quiet. :(

Well, this way, only one of us has to waste their points on binoculars. As for Martell being a killer, someone (you) could heal me too. There is nothing in the rules that prohibits two heals on the same night.

[Lady Gaga]

Well, this way, only one of us has to waste their points on binoculars. As for Martell being a killer, someone (you) could heal me too. There is nothing in the rules that prohibits two heals on the same night.

In that case, consider yourself well and truly healed, my friend...

On thee condition that the two of us team together to ensure we're the only remaining innocents once we kill the scum. :-p

[House Connington]

If we're not sure on a lynch, lets just go to night. By none of us being on an innocent train, we all gain one point. Any of us who stick with one vote gets a second point. If we've ever got a player down to 1 point, we should all vote the person directly below us (ie the guy we heal), then leave the vote there for night. At that point we all gain 2 points, lose 1 for healing, and end up 1 ahead.

So yeah, if at the start of tomorrow we all vote for the guy we are healing, then don't change, then we have a nightkill-less night (or a killer exposing themselves), no lynch, and an extra point each. There's really no downside to it that I can see.

Today, most of us still havent placed a vote at all, so avoid placing one until we know if we'll lynch or just night it, so most of us can grab that second point too.

I'm pretty sure there has to be an innocent lynch mob for there to be people who aren't on the innocent lynch mob.

Also, I don't understand the point of your plan. It just seems like an endless game of nothing happening and accumulating points, unless I'm missing something.

Well, this way, only one of us has to waste their points on binoculars. As for Martell being a killer, someone (you) could heal me too. There is nothing in the rules that prohibits two heals on the same night.

I like your plan. But I don't understand why you can't just use the binoculars and use a heal in the same night. I can't find anything in the rules that says that isn't allowed.

[Lady Gaga]

I'm pretty sure there has to be an innocent lynch mob for there to be people who aren't on the innocent lynch mob.

Also, I don't understand the point of your plan. It just seems like an endless game of nothing happening and accumulating points, unless I'm missing something.

I like your plan. But I don't understand why you can't just use the binoculars and use a heal in the same night. I can't find anything in the rules that says that isn't allowed.

my point wasnt we do it indefinitely, just for a night or two to build up points as soona s someone runs out so cant keep up the team heal.

And he plans to heal and binocular. The key is that if i heal him too, even if his healer is a killer he will live to see tomorrow. he'll be protected from two sides.

[House Connington]

Oh I see, you think his plan fails if I'm evil because then the FM will be so afraid of him that they will kill him off. Well, I'm innocent, but that's fine with me, go ahead and double heal him if it makes you feel better.

[House Clegane]

tend to agree with your assessment of Stark. Botley has successfully started the ball rolling on his lynch but has said next to nothing about anybody else. I would like know who else Botley finds suspicious.

I think that although the FM are playing as individuals they will still act together to reduce numbers in the beginning. I'd like to have a look at the people on Starks lynch mob, because if he's innocent we might find a couple of FM in there. It is a case based on very little that has gained momentum and it doesn't sit well with me.

edit: shameful misuse of the word incredible

Now on re-read, i dont like this post at all. Presuming to tell us how the FM will act? Wants us to look in a small mob for not one, but two FM?

What is wrong with discussing the way the FM are likely to behave, isn't that how we find them? My concerns were valid then and they still are now.

Do you disagree with what I've said?

Similarly, in the case of our healing tonight I think the FM will keep their points, they know not to kill eachothers partners. I think this is a valid thought too in the long run because at end game they will be one up on the innocents who heal tonight.

I find it slightly concerning that you have a problem with this or is it commonly frowned apon to talk FM tactics?

Coupled with the short post that started you on the stark train, a response to Yronwood's 'lack of defensiveness' argument, that lacked your usual lengthy analysis and attention to detail, and the way that you seem to be steering things away from closely examining FM as a group, you are beginning to worry me.

I agree that the mob was small, and in a later post I did say that I thought it was bigger, the majority of posts before mine were Stark bashing, and some people who had not placed a vote looked as though they could head in that direction. I can see what you are saying re FM in a small mob and there's my explanation, but as to the rest of it, I find it... odd.

[Lady Gaga]

What is wrong with discussing the way the FM are likely to behave, isn't that how we find them? My concerns were valid then and they still are now.

Do you disagree with what I've said?

Similarly, in the case of our healing tonight I think the FM will keep their points, they know not to kill eachothers partners. I think this is a valid thought too in the long run because at end game they will be one up on the innocents who heal tonight.

I find it slightly concerning that you have a problem with this or is it commonly frowned apon to talk FM tactics?

Coupled with the short post that started you on the stark train, a response to Yronwood's 'lack of defensiveness' argument, that lacked your usual lengthy analysis and attention to detail, and the way that you seem to be steering things away from closely examining FM as a group, you are beginning to worry me.

I agree that the mob was small, and in a later post I did say that I thought it was bigger, the majority of posts before mine were Stark bashing, and some people who had not placed a vote looked as though they could head in that direction. I can see what you are saying re FM in a small mob and there's my explanation, but as to the rest of it, I find it... odd.

In all honesty? We've won the game now anyway. It's just a matter of which innocents win their way through to the final 1 or 2 and are named victorious. If you are a killer we'll know in a few hours anyway. :P

[House Connington]

Martell's very fast to attack me once stark flips innocent. The cynic in me says he knew all along, and was waiting on it. I still stand by the fact that short of targ's statement naming stark innocent, nothing else would have convinced me that he was anything but scum. So to so quickly turn that into an attack...

:rolleyes: I was online, saw the CF result and you're obsession with Stark was the first thing that came to mind.

ANd the underlined sentence is either a sign you are evil and going over the top now b/c you think that it'd be even worse to hedge, or you are a lot less good at this than I originally thought. You were certain Stark was evil after one day? I know he was suspicious, but what did he ever do to make you certain? And if you were so sure of it then why did you change your vote on day 1? Sure a compromise to get a lynch in a CF game makes sense but if you are that positive then you should have fought even harder to get him lynched.

[House Clegane]

In all honesty? We've won the game now anyway. It's just a matter of which innocents win their way through to the final 1 or 2 and are named victorious. If you are a killer we'll know in a few hours anyway. :P

As I just said, the killers are unlikely to kill, or target random innocents in the hopes that their healer has let them down. We won't know who the killers are.

Unless someone obtains and uses:

3 – binoculars – all the night actions of one particular night will be PMed to you in the morning (this does not include who carried out each action, only what the action was, and who was the target)

In which case we could just have everyone heal themselves. The FM couldn't do it so anyone not healed in the night would be proven FM.

Tyrell, what are your thoughts?

[House Velaryon]

So, yeah, I have a strong suspicion that Erenford and Yronwood are distancing FM partners, and will follow it up with a case shortly.

As much as I would like to see the case on this, it's kind of pointless now. You will use the binoculars, solve the game and see that this is just not right.

So. I think the binocular plan is pretty damn good - I can't see anything that would foul it. No symps to guard, FM can't act to save themselves ... only thing is inno error, so everyone be sure you get your actions right.

Now that we have that out of the way ... I'm all for lynching Lannister. How many times in a game do you get to lynch the under the radar just cause they aren't talking enough? You're usually too worried about letting the FM run wild while you do.

[Lady Gaga]

As I just said, the killers are unlikely to kill, or target random innocents in the hopes that their healer has let them down. We won't know who the killers are.

Unless someone obtains and uses:

3 – binoculars – all the night actions of one particular night will be PMed to you in the morning (this does not include who carried out each action, only what the action was, and who was the target)

In which case we could just have everyone heal themselves. The FM couldn't do it so anyone not healed in the night would be proven FM.

Tyrell, what are your thoughts?

1) we cant heal ourselves.

2) we already plan to use binoculars... Whoever's agreed target is not healed is a killer.

[House Velaryon]

Dondarrion - a self heal is expensive. Like so expensive not everyone will have points for it yet. A circle heal is much cheaper and should be just as reliable as a self heal as everyone has confirmed they sent in provisionals. Only the FM would lie and not heal (because they can't)

What would be the advantage of self heals, cause I it as unworkable.