Game 71.5

[Mina Martell]

Because if finder was alive, announcing my target would be rather helpful to him. Is it consistent to choose potential investigation as regular kill and, at the same night, to ensure vig-kill to be not investigated?

Yeah, it makes sense for an innocent vig to reveal his target beforehand. But it also makes sense for an FM-vig who wanted to ensure the vig wasn't investigated. Or, you know, an FM-vig who just wanted to be CI'd early on and/or get the healer to waste a heal on him. Or pressure someone to reveal as finder under penalty of vig.

It's hard. You give us quote of yours and say it confirms you being the healer. What I can answer except this quote doesn't confirm anything from my PoV?

Um...yes? That's exactly what I expect you to do--and explain why it doesn't confirm anything. Then if your argument is good, my claim loses credibility, and if your argument is bad, I can refute it. If you were innocent, you'd care more about discovering my alignment than setting up lynches.

(For the record, what I'm saying isn't that those quotes confirm my role without a doubt, but that my story is consistent with my gameplay.)

For now, I think it makes no sense for any player alive (except you) to be evil. But somebody is.

Astute observation, there.

It's very interesting that you're more interested in defending yourself (from your number one FM suspect, no less!), than in finding the killers, by the way. And if you were innocent, I think you'd be a whole lot more offended by the fact that I called your play "shitty." Your accusations have lacked conviction all game.

And on a readthrough, you know what? I think LCOTNW really is an RI who was trying to look like the finder, even though I don't know why he's been so passive. And I think Sir Thursday is a solid, reasonable player from another site who just doesn't have a lot of time and who looks for different kinds of scumtells. And I think neither mentat nor Kat would ever play evil like this--particularly not Kat, who's coming across as completely unguarded and natural in her posts. And I think you're the killer.

---

By the way, I just noticed something:

So, one of my non-suspect is guilty after all. And I have no idea which. :(

Happily, lynching both is viable option.

I need to think who should be first. Gert's kill is slightly more favorable for Mina, I suppose...

So in his first post of the day, he takes no position, but starts setting himself up to lynch me first. (Note that the Piper kill fit Pebble a hell of a lot better than it did me, but he didn't feel like mentioning that.) But then, he decides to go with the flow:

I won't take any standings on whom to lynch first before everybody else will, to make life harder for possible third partner.

And of course, he later refuses to take a stand on the reveal before Sir Thursday shows up--who you'll remember has suspected me for much of the game. But when everyone votes for Pebble, he just gives up and joins the bandwagon.

Another thing. Compare these two posts:

Well, I don't want to be healed. One of the reasons why I've claimed was that I wanted to die before the finder... Even such finder who don't want to claim at the moment when we are in a bad need for him.

As I understand, both girls claim to have one heal left unused?

Could you both explain why you haven't used in on Night 2?

And... whoever tells the truth - thanks.

Notice the contradiction here? Like hell, he didn't want to be healed. I'd wager half of his plan was to get the healer to waste a heal on him--and it worked.

[Mina Martell]

Look Mina, I'm almost willing to believe that you're not evil right now, but I think you're being paranoid and crazy about Malcolm. I want to hear from everyone before we lynch you, but I believe Malcolm is 100% CI and I'm fairly certain that everyone else does too. His claim doesn't make sense for an evil vig to make. Hell, if there were an evil vig, wouldn't it make more sense for them to just silently kill someone and never claim? Wouldn't it make more sense for them to kill a "suspect" at a time when it would be more convenient for the FM, which is usually later in the game?

I've been an evil vig before--in fact, Malcolm was the good vig who killed me--and I saved my claim for a time when I needed to be cleared, and my team needed another person gone for the math to work out in the end. I just don't think it makes sense for Mal to have claimed, when he did, as an evil person. No one wanted to lynch him; everyone was so focused on Spider being evil that lynching him on Day 2 was easy, and having a vig to save us then was not really necessary, nor was the Chairman Meow kill all that helpful for the killers. (Think on it--people who are total blanks are pretty easy to lynch. The killers could have easily let Mal vig Gertrude, who was an innocent that people wanted to lynch anyway. Then instead of using their night kill on her, they could have picked whoever they next most wanted dead.)

It's very hard for me to fight a charge of being paranoid and crazy.

But Kat, reread TheMalcolm. Pretend he isn't a "100% CI vig" for a minute. Pay attention to how little conviction his responses to me have, and how terrible his defence has been. Read the many cases I've made against him. You've played dozens and dozens of games with him by now. Does his behaviour strike you as that of an innocent CI Malc, yes or no?

I'll agree that the timing of his claim fits slightly better for an innocent vig than for an evil one. And you're right, he could have got away with vigging Gertrude (or saving his kill for a finder reveal). But why wouldn't it be a decent plan for an evil vig to reveal as an innocent vig and kill a group suspect just to look more innocent, if it would give him a clear run for the rest of the game? Particularly since he tried to extort a finder reveal from Meow beforehand? Not everyone is a member of Team Math, and people don't always think in numbers and statistics and what is the most "optimal" kill. Also, remember that he used his vig when we were at an odd number of players, so he lost us a day.

I do have doubts. I'm open to the idea of someone else being guilty, and I'm worried I might have screwed over the game by attacking Malc at all. But could you at least consider his guilt, instead of blindly dismissing him as a "100% CI vig"?

[Mina Martell]

All right. It's four in the morning here. I have to leave the house at seven-twenty. This will probably be my last post of the game.

If you strongly believe that I'm innocent and Pebble was evil, then I'd ask you not to lynch me, but the person you think is most likely to be evil. Please don't lynch me just because in a Mafia game two years ago, someone decided it was correct theory to "lynch all claimants." Because if I'm innocent, you're needlessly wasting a lynch. Lynching both claimants only makes sense when you don't know which one is telling the truth.

BUT if you're not sure whether the real healer is Pebble or me, even though you're slightly leaning toward me, then it makes sense to lynch me today rather than tomorrow.

Because not lynching me would be a commitment. I don't want people to lynch, say, Sir Thursday, the game to continue, and then for everyone to turn around and say, "Omigod, it's all because we didn't lynch Mina yesterday!"

So that's basically the question. Do you think I'm innocent? Do you think Pebble is guilty? I think that right now, it should be obvious as to which one of us was telling the truth. I'd argue that my behaviour all game makes more sense for a tunnelvisioned innocent than for an FM trying to save her own skin. And if nothing else, I'll direct you to these quotes :P:

as to who is the most suspect, you mean other than Spider? well I'm finding that hard. not enough info on meow, cept he wanted to kill gert yesterday. could lynch him. Thurs don't make sences as a partner to spider so I;m feeling better about him than I would due to my belief that spider is evil. LC is similar but not as good.

I am uneasy about Kat, but I can't really find anything suspect.

Wasn't the real reason you where paranoid about Malc was he could Vig you during the night?

But of course, I don't know how I come across to an unbiased observer. If you have serious doubts about my alignment, and won't be able to get over them in endgame, then it makes more sense to lynch me today than tomorrow. This way, when the game doesn't end, at least you'll know to look in a new direction.

Again, I'd like to see everyone be pressured today--and please don't be lazy about this decision, because it was clearly in Pebble's best interest for us to both be lynched. I still think LC and Sir Thursday have done a few things that can be considered scummy. And I've been thinking about it, and Kat has a damn good point that an evil Malc could have just vigged Gertrude. (Unless he wanted everyone to know Gert was innocent...but yeah, if Pebble was his partner, that wasn't the best move. Okay, point conceded. :uhoh:) But at the very least, consider the possibility that Malc is evil tomorrow.

But, you know, first ask the mods if the roles can be aligned with any faction. Because if they can't...jeez. That would be pretty embarrassing. :blushing:

[Mina Martell]

Holy fuck.

Actually, this will be my last post of the game.

Even after all my spamathons, Gertrude still has a higher post count than me.

Now I'm out.

[TheMalcolm]

Yeah, it makes sense for an innocent vig to reveal his target beforehand. But it also makes sense for an FM-vig who wanted to ensure the vig wasn't investigated.

Was I more likely investigation than Pebble? In fact, if we were partnered, it would be much better for the team to announce her the vig, even if the role was actually mine. Because I wasn't suspected at the point.

(For the record, what I'm saying isn't that those quotes confirm my role without a doubt, but that my story is consistent with my gameplay.)

Ok, agreed. Yout story is consistent with your gameplay. Is it viable argument in your defence? No. Because variant of you being evil is no less consistent with same gameplay.

Your made a big fuss about a minor point and keep insisting that your explanation of your play is the only sensible one. That's exactly what WJ does when evil.

Notice the contradiction here? Like hell, he didn't want to be healed.

So, when I want an explanation of your choices, in order to decide who is more trustable, you interpret this as desire to be healed? And when after your refusal I silently agree not to pressure you on the point, you accuse me of being uninterested? Damend if you do and damned if you don't.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 5.

6 players remain: Kat, LCOTNW, Mentat, Mina Martell, Sir Thursday, TheMalcolm.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

1 vote for Mina Martell (TheMalcolm)

1 vote for TheMalcolm (Mina Martell)

4 players have not voted: Kat, LCOTNW, Mentat, Sir Thursday.

[Mentat]

If you strongly believe that I'm innocent and Pebble was evil, then I'd ask you not to lynch me, but the person you think is most likely to be evil. Please don't lynch me just because in a Mafia game two years ago, someone decided it was correct theory to "lynch all claimants." Because if I'm innocent, you're needlessly wasting a lynch. Lynching both claimants only makes sense when you don't know which one is telling the truth.

We don't know, Mina, that's exactly the problem. You're far more verbose than Pebble, but there are quite a few problems left. We don't know if Spider was guilty or not. If he was, that makes you much more suspicious.

There are lot of pretty convincing explanations as to why Malc didn't die tonight. You being the FM could be one of them. Malc actually being under more suspicion than Lany (despite being a revealed vig), is another. There is no good reason for Malc surviving on the night 3. It's conceivable that the FM withheld, but it's wacky play. We've seen quite a few instances of evil Malc, recently, and wacky FM just isn't him. The day two vig reveal and then withholding his kill on night 3 just makes very little sense. An evil vig is also seriously not vanilla, and it hasn't been used for a VERY long time (I remember the game where Kat was evil vig, she vigged me, I still haven't forgotten and owe her one, but revenge is a dish best served well cold). Anyway, yes, that game was seriously ages ago.

Just re-read yourself considering an evil Spider and tell us how innocent you look...

I also agree with Malc that revealing as healer was pretty unnecessary for Pebbles. Kat was voting Sir Thursday before the reveal, and Malc had said he didn't suspect either you or Pebbles. Pebbles wasn't really a top suspect of mine, I must confess, so I think chances of getting someone else lynched were pretty good. If they wanted to kill you so badly, why not target you on night 3? What did they have to lose?

BUT if you're not sure whether the real healer is Pebble or me, even though you're slightly leaning toward me, then it makes sense to lynch me today rather than tomorrow.

I agree. I'm sorry Mina, but lynching both claimants in a game without CF just makes more sense.

That said... endgame is looking pretty bleak from where I'm standing. I trust Kat and Malc and myself, to some extent, but I fully expect one of us three to die tonight. The only thing we're sure of is that one of Mina or Pebbles was guilty (we don't really know which one), and that's a very poor basis to try and solve the game.

I'll probably be voting Mina today, though I'd like to hear if someone (other than herself) thinks it's not the right course of action.

[Mentat]

I'm off to bed now. My vote stays where it is. Should Kat return you have my ok to speedlynch her. Or LCOTNW. Or Pebs.

Mina is too cute to die.

Will be back in about 2 hours. My vote stays on Spidey, as there's no other convincing case out there. Willing to switch to Pebbles, LCOTNW and Kat. Of course we risk to loose/uncover our finder. I'm not sure if there is a healer or a vig who might bring us to odd, so a missed lynch might not hurt us as much as it usually does. But it still would hurt us IMO. :unsure:

Hmmm... I just went back to re-read Piper, and noticed that he was suspicious of Kat, Pebbles and LCOTNW.

He also thought Mina was too cute to die :P

[Mentat]

Mina, I just wanted to point out that if you take off your FM colored glasses when thinking of me, we're actually looking at the same people right now for FM.

Hmmm indeed... The three people in question are Chairman Meow, Lany and LCOTNW.

[Mentat]

stepping out for lunch. I will be back before the deadline. My preference is for Mina or Kat.

Lany is a compromise that I am not real excited about, but we are getting short on time.

I'd say LCOTNW is not likely to be partnered with either Mina or Kat.

[Mina Martell]

Fine, one last post before I head out to work.

At this point, I can't really argue against my lynch. And I'll admit that there's logical evidence in favour of Malc. But gah, Malc is playing soooo little like an innocent...

I've kind of made my peace with it. If Malc is innocent, then I'm better off dead, anyway, and if Malc is evil, I will never let you guys hear the end of it. At least this way, I'll take no responsibility for it.

Was I more likely investigation than Pebble? In fact, if we were partnered, it would be much better for the team to announce her the vig, even if the role was actually mine. Because I wasn't suspected at the point.

That's a decent point, although Spidey and I suspected you. Actually, I think you were the only one who suspected Pebble. But true, she could have ruled herself out as a Spidey partner that way.

Ok, agreed. Yout story is consistent with your gameplay. Is it viable argument in your defence? No. Because variant of you being evil is no less consistent with same gameplay.

Your made a big fuss about a minor point and keep insisting that your explanation of your play is the only sensible one. That's exactly what WJ does when evil.

Except...um, you were the one who brought it up in the first place? And since we were in a counterclaim battle, I was showing the many times where my posts hinted at my role. But unfortunately, Pebble never got a chance to respond. I didn't make a fuss about it at all.

Again, you're not explaining how my play is consistent with my being evil.

So, when I want an explanation of your choices, in order to decide who is more trustable, you interpret this as desire to be healed? And when after your refusal I silently agree not to pressure you on the point, you accuse me of being uninterested? Damend if you do and damned if you don't.

What I meant is that on D3, you acted all shocked at the idea that someone would heal you...but of course, you admitted on D4 that you thought you were a likely N2 heal. Not a damning point against you, but I think you were being disingenuous. And I think you're uninterested because you haven't pressured me on anything, not just on how many heals I have left. Way to twist my words.

Now I really have to go.

[Sir Thursday]

In a few hours, I'm going to sit down and do some re-reading, make small talk, etc. For the moment though, let me say this:

I will not vote for Mina today. First of all, I don't see the percentage in a scum team containing Mina trying to kill Malc the night after her reveal. And secondly, there is no way in hell that a killer comes out knowing that she is the most likely lynch, and proceeds to make a case on a CI. No chance, nada.

[LCOTNW]

Mina's point that Evil-Vig-Malc might reveal and prove his claim early to avoid being investigated is.... terrifying, but I don't believe the killers would be given a double-kill without being balanced with something more substantial, like paired finders.

I think Malc's play is consistent with being innocent and roled. The fact that Mina is tunneled on Malc is actually a point in her favor. If she was evil and got caught by Pebbles' counter, she would have to find a way to divert the lynch to someone else. The generally agreed-upon VPI is probably the worst choice. I still don't understand the rationale of spending heals on your suspect, though.

I am not going to be able to participate more today, and it is going to be cutting it close to get back before the end of the game day, so I am putting my vote down on Mina.

[Mentat]

In a few hours, I'm going to sit down and do some re-reading, make small talk, etc. For the moment though, let me say this:

I will not vote for Mina today. First of all, I don't see the percentage in a scum team containing Mina trying to kill Malc the night after her reveal. And secondly, there is no way in hell that a killer comes out knowing that she is the most likely lynch, and proceeds to make a case on a CI. No chance, nada.

Hmmm... I could be convinced to vote LCOTNW, I guess, but it would definitely help if you put some time into the game and gave a hand.

The more I think of it the more I agree Mina and Malc have just been left around to provide a distraction for each other. I'm also not that sure we have the leisure of that many security lynches. If we're going to have to take a bet tomorrow, might as well take it today.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 5.

6 players remain: Kat, LCOTNW, Mentat, Mina Martell, Sir Thursday, TheMalcolm.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

2 votes for Mina Martell (TheMalcolm, LCOTNW)

1 vote for TheMalcolm (Mina Martell)

3 players have not voted: Kat, Mentat, Sir Thursday.

[TheMalcolm]

The more I think of it the more I agree Mina and Malc have just been left around to provide a distraction for each other.

I agree, and this worked.

For now, I evaluate probability of Mina being innocent as 60-70%, which evidently isn't enough to let her to stay around.

In fact, even if she is innocent, she is of no help to us, since her power is used up and her suspicions are terribly wrong. Sadly, you find exacty precise word: distraction.

[Mentat]

I agree, and this worked.

For now, I evaluate probability of Mina being innocent as 60-70%, which evidently isn't enough to let her to stay around.

In fact, even if she is innocent, she is of no help to us, since her power is used up and her suspicions are terribly wrong. Sadly, you find exacty precise word: distraction.

Mina has put more effort into the game than all the other active players put together... I have a hard time buying her as guilty, though I do think she's wrong about you.

If you think Mina is more likely innocent than not, I think it might be worth it going after a player who is more likely guilty than not. I'd say for me right now that would be LCOTNW. I'm definitely not going to vote for you, but I think I agree with Sir Thursday that lynching Mina puts us in a very dire position. We need to get it right in only one lynch, and I'm not even that sure that there's only 1 FM left...

This kind of remind's me of the end of the last big game, where I wanted to do the logical thing and you were trying to look at other options. You were right then, and I think I might be right now. Look at LCOTNW and Lady Gaga's endgame play. Appear, cast a vote for a suspicious player with a seemingly decent rationale (provided by other people's cases) and leave. It's pretty much the same.

[TheMalcolm]

If you think Mina is more likely innocent than not, I think it might be worth it going after a player who is more likely guilty than not.

It's not that simple. It's more complex question which is known as safety. Linching both Pebble and Mina, we are 100% to get rid of a guilty; lynching Pebble only, we take 60-70% of success, which is extremely worse.

In fact, Mina herself said the same thing: we should vote out her if we aren't 100% sure of her innnocence. Are you?

I'd say for me right now that would be LCOTNW.

Of all choices, this one looks most unappropriate to me.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 5.

6 players remain: Kat, LCOTNW, Mentat, Mina Martell, Sir Thursday, TheMalcolm.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

2 votes for Mina Martell (TheMalcolm, LCOTNW)

1 vote for LCOTNW (Mentat)

1 vote for TheMalcolm (Mina Martell)

2 players have not voted: Kat, Sir Thursday.

[Kat]

It's not that simple. It's more complex question which is known as safety. Linching both Pebble and Mina, we are 100% to get rid of a guilty; lynching Pebble only, we take 60-70% of success, which is extremely worse.

In fact, Mina herself said the same thing: we should vote out her if we aren't 100% sure of her innnocence. Are you?

Of all choices, this one looks most unappropriate to me.

Who looks more appropriate?

I'm almost willing to come out and say that if Mina is innocent, Sir Thursday is too. I have no idea why else he would say he doesn't want to lynch Mina today, unless there's some Thursday-Mina partnership we haven't considered. :uhoh: Which leaves LC as a more appropriate partner to Pebble.

Mal, do you think Mina has a partner?

I hate to say this, but _{it makes equal sense to lynch "Pebble's partner" (if she was evil) and then Mina, as it does to do it the other way around. Grrrr. Hate deviating from the plan.}