Game 71.5

[Sir Thursday]

Okey dokey, back for a bit longer this time.

[LCOTNW]

Don't defend yourself. Show us someone who looks guilty and tell us why we should lynch them rather than you!!!!

I hate to sound patronizing (well, maybe hate is too strong a word... mild dislike would probably be more appropriate), but this is the typical attitude that really loses us games. Not lynching you gets us nowhere LCOTNW. What we need is someone who realize who the bad guys really are, if we're wrong and it isn't you.

I don't think you've really made much of a case on anyone all game, it's one of the reasons I suspect you so much, would you like to start now?

I'm not sure there is any point since you, Kat and Sir Thursday have cleared Mina, not to mention that you, Kat and Mina are all disposed to vote for me today. Sir Thursday is the only objectively innocent person from my point of view because he should have voted me instead of going to night.

I think you are making an error in refusing to lynch Mina. If Mina survives until endgame then what are you going to do? These last two lynches feel like a setup now. If that is the case, then I think Kat is likely to be the architect:

Day 1 - Kat posts a couple of RP-type comments. Puts a joke-vote on Meow. Leaves and does not return until night and makes a comment saying she wants someone to hurry up and die so she can post in the day phase.

Day 2 - She posts that she totally does not believe Spider's claim both for the timing and the explanation during the night. Then she has a long wishy-washy post (#269) about whether Spider is guilty or not and ends with:

I'm fairly willing to lynch Spider today, although I realize that since I'm falling asleep while writing this, it's probably incoherent and full of logic gaps/loops

She started to participate a little more after Mentat called her out for lack of participation. Pretty defensive reaction with the F-bomb and all.

She opposes the idea of building lynchmobs away from Spider and overstated what I had said in the process, making me look bad. She wants to Vig/Lynch Spider and Gert. This portion bothered me the most because I thought switching the vig was a brilliant idea and I was disappointed that it met serious opposition. Then her alternative to my idea was to kill Gert without a case other than she seemed to be suspicious to a lot of people and would be a distraction if left alive. She then adds suspicion to Gert because Gert like the idea despite having me on her suspect list. You asked her for a case on Gert, and she did not produce one.

Post #428 - more wishy-washy on Spider. She can't understand why Malc doesn't want to lynch Gert. Pushes the idea that Gert will be a distraction (Not that Gert is scummy in any way). She still hasn't voted (voting late in the day is a scumtell, right?), though she is pretty sure that Spider is guilty (just not 100%).

Next post is the large-font post waving the flag that she is participating. She endorses the idea of getting rid of Meow, but also would be okay getting rid of a more active player to get more information. She agrees to vote Spider but does not want to look at Spider partners for the rest of the game. This all seems wishy-washy to me. No one was suggesting that we lynch spider partners for the rest of the game.

Post #570 she pleads for the finder to reveal, even if it is just a guilty result on Spider. I find it odd to think that there would be any reason for a finder not to reveal on Day 3 with a guilty result. We've already been through the rest of this argument. She says she's not the finder. Been through that argument already as well.

She talks a lot about voting Pebbles, but doesn't lay down a vote. Instead she votes for Lany (late in the day, again without a prior vote) who she does not think is really suspicious (but again is not sure). She excuses this as she is sticking to her plan to vote someone who is guilty independent of Spidey (though not really).

Kat says that Mina has posted what she wants to say in #620. she also sheeps Mentat in #781 and #794 without adding any original thoughts.

#672 - Kat wants to lynch Sir Thursday, then Pebbles, then me. She admonishes that the reason these plans haven't worked in the past is that no one follows them. I find that ironic since she refuses to lynch the counter-claiming healers. Kat has been laying out her lynch order (though it changes a lot) throughout the game. First it was lynch Gert and Spider in succession, then it is lynch these three, now she suggests she would probably lynch Mina in the end if the game doesn't end with my lynch. She looks forward to lynching people soon, but does not put down a vote. I don't know why Sir Thursday moved ahead of Pebbles in her suspect list. She made cases on both, but she was much stronger against Pebbles by comparison.

Start of Day 4, immediately votes Sir Thursday for safe play. Pebbles does the fake reveal 2 minutes later, then Kat unvotes. She includes this statement:

That Death List didn't last long. :( Now I can't figure out who to remove for after we lynch Mina and Pebble.

Why wouldn't she still want to lynch Sir Thursday? Why wasn't I still a possibility for a lynch? Kat looks inconsistent in her suspects here.

#732 - Kat gets in too late to vote for Pebble. Reminds herself to lynch both the counter-claimers and not get swayed by pleas.

#760, 780 - Kat gets swayed by Mina's pleas.

#794 - I move ahead of Sir Thursday on Kat's list. No apparent reason other than I am more lynchable.

#805 -

Er, crap, does that :devil: mean I just lost? :dunce:

---------

Points in Kat's favor:

post #496 is the one that makes me hesitate about her guilt. She jokes about her partner sending in the NK. That seems incredibly cocky for an evil player, and I don't think that fits very well.

She also is the first to seriously suspect Pebbles. She goes after Pebbles pretty hard, but now I wonder if an evil Pebbles was planning to fake reveal all along just to have fun. If so, she and her partner would have to distance at some point. Kat did not vote Pebbles despite being the only one to make any kind of case on her.

KAT

[Kat]

<case>

So I'm confused. If I'm evil, I'm Pebble's partner? If so, why wouldn't I push to lynch Mina first, and then Pebble? Instead, I would have pushed to lynch my partner, and then....decided not to lynch an innocent, for no apparent reason?

Anyway, yes, I've been indecisive and have pretty much backed out of several decisions that I said I was going to be decisive about. On the other hand, I would have had opportunities to lynch people that I didn't take. (On a side note, I think it would have been easier to make a case that I was Mina's partner, am surprised no one's done it yet.)

[Sir Thursday]

Interesting case there LCOTNW. Some of it I like (the inconsistencies on Day 2) other bits I'm not so sure about (it makes sense for her plan to go out the window with the two reveals, IMO). Question for you: who would you say was most likely to be Kat's partner? And what is your opinion on the likeliness of Spidey being scum?

EDIT: You went with Pebbles as a likely partner. Reading comprehension fail.

[Mentat]

I haven't got any more time now, as it's very late and I have to get up early to go to work.

I'll be back tomorrow morning before the day ends with a couple of hours or so to make up my mind and vote. Your case is not bad LCOTNW. I'm interested in what Mina and Sir Thursday have to say.

[LCOTNW]

So I'm confused. If I'm evil, I'm Pebble's partner? If so, why wouldn't I push to lynch Mina first, and then Pebble? Instead, I would have pushed to lynch my partner, and then....decided not to lynch an innocent, for no apparent reason?

You need scummy looking people like me to take to endgame.

[Sir Thursday]

You need scummy looking people like me to take to endgame.

I think she was referring to not lynching Mina as opposed to not lynching you...

[Kat]

You need scummy looking people like me to take to endgame.

Yeah, but that's not the point. The point is, why would I lynch my own partner over Mina, first, and then NOT lynch Mina the next day? You're not going to believe me here, obviously, because you're either evil or wrong, but I generally try to keep my team around as long as possible so there's a larger buffer. Lynching them early<Lynching them late. So, after I presumably cut out Ser Spider or Meow or whoever was #3 on my team, I'd probably not want to get rid of Pebble. I would have told her absolutely, under no circumstances, counter-claim Mina, because it will bring, AT BEST, extra attention to you. Why distance?? There's no living finder. Just nightkill Mina and Malcolm and push for the LC/Sir Thursday lynches. Unless you're arguing that I have no control over what Pebbles does, her claim doesn't make any sense if we were partners, and then my behavior following her claim doesn't make sense either. If you didn't notice, while I didn't vote for Pebble, I also didn't exactly push for lynching Mina that day either.

You're trying to argue that I'm being manipulative, but I'm terribly lazy. Lazy, but not illogical. How can I be both illogical and manipulative at the same time?

[Mina Martell]

Sir Thursday, please stop feeding my paranoid Pebble-LCOTNW-Sir Thursday scumteam theory.

If you want to know the truth, I'm almost certainly going to vote LCOTNW today. I won't give him any brownie points for not making a single case throughout the entire game...then churning out an inflated one when pressured to under threat of a lynch. Particularly since that case was more of a reread than a case, anyway--and he of all people shouldn't have the gall to call someone wishy-washy. And you know what? Maybe I should have learned my lesson on gut by now, but I think Kat is innocent. My gut is better at pinpointing innocent players (at least after two or three days) than guilty ones. And I think she's contributed more than LCOTNW has--and that mentat's Day Three case pretty much nailed his behaviour. The night kills also fit with an evil LCOTNW very well--I think he'd kill Piper or Gertrude or Malc because of their reputation (I remember his thoughts on the N1 Malc kill in Game 64), although Malc trusting LC is a point in his favour.

(Also, see paranoid Pebble-LCOTNW-Sir Thursday scumteam theory. Kat is unlikely to be partnered with any living player.)

I haven't had a lot of time this afternoon, and to be honest, I've lost some of my motivation now that I'm no longer fighting for my life, my last efforts were all in vain, and my top suspect is a lock to be lynched, anyway. But I have some stuff to say about LCOTNW's most recent defences.

She also is the first to seriously suspect Pebbles. She goes after Pebbles pretty hard, but now I wonder if an evil Pebbles was planning to fake reveal all along just to have fun. If so, she and her partner would have to distance at some point. Kat did not vote Pebbles despite being the only one to make any kind of case on her.

Um...

You realize that I claimed healer at the very last minute of the day? How likely do you think it was that Pebble was planning to counterclaim any random player who revealed?

I did question Kat over the fact that she'd attacked Pebble but voted Lany, and I think it was a little silly to vote for someone she suspected less just to make a point. But I don't think it was as weird as this.

I know you answered that charge here, but still. I read the posts in-between your flip-flop. Here's the exchange:

Malc - why are you not willing to vote Pebbles? Just because she defended Gert?

Yes.

Most of the case against her is that she is likely to be partnered with Spidey - and why Spidey's partner won't vote Gert?

Please explain this to me, LCOTNW. You think Spidey's partner is Kat, me, or Pebble. Malc refuses to vote for Pebble.

You say, "Why, because she defended Gert?"

Malc says, "Yep, pretty much."

How the hell did that change your mind? It's not like Malc brought up any new arguments.

[LCOTNW]

If the game doesn't end after we lynch LC, and I'm in the final three, I'd probably lynch Mina. Sorry Mina; you sound innocent to me, but I can't get over the idea that not lynching both claimants to a role is a truly bad idea, and that you've almost pulled one on us. That being said, I suspect LCOTNW more.

I'm referring to this. Lynch me today, Mina becomes your choice tomorrow. Game, set, match.

I have to be off for a bit now. I can try to make it back again before the end of the game day.

[Mina Martell]

I'm not sure there is any point since you, Kat and Sir Thursday have cleared Mina, not to mention that you, Kat and Mina are all disposed to vote for me today. Sir Thursday is the only objectively innocent person from my point of view because he should have voted me instead of going to night.

By the way, I also voted to go to night instead of voting for you. Just a reminder.

[LCOTNW]

Please explain this to me, LCOTNW. You think Spidey's partner is Kat, me, or Pebble. Malc refuses to vote for Pebble.

You say, "Why, because she defended Gert?"

Malc says, "Yep, pretty much."

How the hell did that change your mind? It's not like Malc brought up any new arguments.

Read my response again. Malc's response prompted me to look at how Pebbles backed off of Gert on Day 2, and defended her. I was looking at Pebbles as a suspect because of her potential connection to Spider. That doesn't make sense since Gert was lynchable on Day 2 and we know Gert was innocent now. I also said that if Pebbles knew that Gert was going to be the NK because of the investigation, then she might have been defending her for scummy reasons. I already said all of this. Didn't you read it the first time?

Anyway, I can't clear either you or Pebbles, you both look potentially scummy to me and I wish you were out of the equation already.

Also, I think it is entirely possible for the evils to strategize a fake reveal under these circumstances.

Okay, gone for awhile.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 6.

5 players remain: Kat, LCOTNW, Mentat, Mina Martell, Sir Thursday.

3 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

1 vote for Kat (LCOTNW)

1 vote for LCOTNW (Kat)

3 players have not voted: Mentat, Mina Martell, Sir Thursday.

[LCOTNW]

By the way, I also voted to go to night instead of voting for you. Just a reminder.

No credit if my lynch wasn't viable.

[Kat]

I'm referring to this. Lynch me today, Mina becomes your choice tomorrow. Game, set, match.

I have to be off for a bit now. I can try to make it back again before the end of the game day.

Well, I would have a very hard time with it if Mentat were the third person. I'm confused as to why he's still alive (see paranoia from day 2 or 3). But I agree that for today's lynch that makes sense as a strategy; however, if we still had 8 people, with Pebble and Mina counterclaiming each other (presumably because Pebble didn't listen to my pleas not to counterclaim), I'd far rather keep Pebble alive for that extra day if she were my partner. That way, I only have to survive on my own for 2 lynches instead of 3, right? Lynch Mina, kill Mentat (because no one wanted to lynch him, and he's a less likely heal than Mal), lynch Pebble, kill Mal, and then it's a 4-way vote between you, me, Sir Thursday, and Lany. That's a way better setup for Alternate Universe Evil Kat, and what I would have been aiming for as soon as I stopped banging my head against the wall for Pebble having claimed healer.

[Kat]

Writing that post and imagining myself as evil, by the way, gave me a really, really evil idea for modding another LOST-themed game. :devil:

[Mina Martell]

Kat, as should probably be obvious by the CI proven vig fiasco, I'm no tactical genius when it comes to WIFOM-ing the killers. So I'd like your advice on something. Should I state evidence that makes a player look innocent and might result in said player getting nightkilled, yes or no?

Read my response again. Malc's response prompted me to look at how Pebbles backed off of Gert on Day 2, and defended her. I was looking at Pebbles as a suspect because of her potential connection to Spider. That doesn't make sense since Gert was lynchable on Day 2 and we know Gert was innocent now. I also said that if Pebbles knew that Gert was going to be the NK because of the investigation, then she might have been defending her for scummy reasons. I already said all of this. Didn't you read it the first time?

My point was that you knew all this before, because you asked Malc, "Was it because Pebble voted for Gert?" His response just rephrased your question. It's not like he brought up any new arguments at the time. So it shouldn't have changed your mind.

Saying afterwards, "Well, I didn't say so at the time, but it was because of Malc's arguments" isn't convincing because you hadn't listed those arguments. And saying after the fact, "Now I realize it shouldn't have proven anything" certainly doesn't justify your actions.

Anyway, I can't clear either you or Pebbles, you both look potentially scummy to me and I wish you were out of the equation already.

Stop trying to set up my lynch. I love that you keep on whining over the fact that I haven't been lynched yet, even though you've accused Kat of masterminding a diabolical plot to frame me. Also, I'd appreciate it if you made the effort to explain how I've been scummy...

...wait a minute. I feel like I've made this case on someone before. :dunce:

I'm referring to this. Lynch me today, Mina becomes your choice tomorrow. Game, set, match.

You know, that logic kind of applies to everyone. Mentat could have an evil plan of setting up your lynch today and Kat's tomorrow. Sir Thursday could have an evil plan of leaving himself open to any lynch. Your "Kat is the architect behind everything in the entire game" paranoia sounds a teensy bit phony.

No credit if my lynch wasn't viable.

Well, if you remember, the exchange went like this:

mentat: Let's vote LCOTNW.

Kat: Yeah, LCOTNW.

Mina: GAH NO YOU'RE YOU PEOPLE ARE ALL BLIND CAN'T YOU SEE THE CI ISN'T REALLY A CI FM PLEASE DON'T NIGHTKILL HIM KILLERS SO I CAN GIVE YOU A FREE LYNCH...sorry, what? Oh, I'd settle for LCOTNW.

Sir Thursday: Wait, why don't we go to night?

Mina: Ooh, that's a great idea, because then that killing killer who kills, Malc--who is TOTALLY not a CI, FM, so don't nightkill him--can't explain why he's still alive!

So I could have swung it to you if I'd pushed hard enough.

[Sir Thursday]

Right, I thought I'd take a look at possible partnerships among living players, just to make absolutely sure that a wrong vote today is the end of the game. I'm going to ignore any conclusions I've made about the innocence of any of the players up to this point, just so I can be thorough.

Combinations I can immediately discount:

Mina + Mentat (they could both vote LCOTNW and the game would be over)

Kat + LCONTW (they're voting for each other)

Combinations I can dismiss after some thought:

Mina + Kat (Kat doesn't push her opinion on who to kill first out of Pebbles and Mina)

Mentat + LCONTW (Mentat was keen to switch to LCONTW on Day 5)

The remaining ones to be paranoid about: Mina + LCOTNW, Mentat + Kat

Anyone have any good evidence to assuage my fears on either of those two? I can't choose between LCOTNW and Mentat, so I figure the best outcome is to go for the one least likely to lose immediately (faint though that may be). Since I'm pretty convinced of Mina's innocence at this point, I'm leaning towards a vote for Mentat.

[Sir Thursday]

That's right, I'm basing my decision on who to vote for today on the outside chance that there are still two killers left. Paranoia is alive and well in the state of Sir Thursday.

[Mina Martell]

Sir Thursday, I'll reveal the secret evidence I was hinting at.

I mentioned this before, but Pebble that Hides probably wouldn't have counterclaimed me unless her partner was also in danger of a lynch. We had three lynches left. Now that me and Lany were cleared, the lynchable players were you, LCOTNW, Pebble, and Kat. Pebble's partner would have to be in danger. Mentat would have no reason to follow such a plan. And unlike Malc, no one would wonder if he survived to endgame.

Also, judging by mentat's immediate reaction to the reveal (putting himself firmly in the "Mina" camp, deciding not to lynch me, calling the idea "wacky"--mentat isn't a wacky player), I'd say he's almost certainly innocent. Definitely more likely to be innocent than Kat--who I still trust.

If you're worried about a Mina-LCOTNW partnership...um, I'm going to vote for him today. And LC almost certainly can't be partnered with me, since he voted me over Pebble or Lany on Day Three.

(But I hope you consider voting for him, anyway. I've got a nasty response coming up to one of his defence posts.)