Game 71.5

[LCOTNW]

I'm not sure that it makes any difference.

Pebbles has to have a partner, so if we lynch her, then Mina, we put Pebbles' partner into the final 4. We would go to night and put Pebbles' partner at endgame. This is assuming that we have NKs.

If we lynch Mina first, and the game doesn't end, then we lynch Pebbles, and same result as above.

Since Pebbles is more likely to have a living partner, it makes sense to lynch her first.

If Mina has a living partner, we are no worse off by lynching her second.

I hate to vote and run, but weekends are terrible for me and mafia. I won't be modkilled, but I won't be able to participate much on Saturday. I think this is okay because we don't have to agonize over the decision today.

Pebbles

[Mina Martell]

Hey, LCOTNW. I've got a question for you. What changed between here:

Potential partners for Spider - Pebbles, Mina, Kat

Not sure: Lany

Unlikely partners for Spider - Sir Thursday, Mentat, Malc

Pebbles and Mina have the obvious connection. I haven't played with Pebbles much, so she is harder to read. I did not like the last minute attempt to switch the lynch yesterday. I've played with Mina a few times, but not enough to know what she looks like as evil, and I am not very good at that sort of thing anyway. Kat and Lany I tend to find suspicious because of our differing playstyles. They tend to poke rather than reason, which does not mean they are evil, but it makes it harder for me to read them. For example, I had the feeling that the "lynch Gert and Spider so as to not put all our eggs in one basket" felt like she could be cutting a partner loose and trying to take a potential CI along for the ride (plus buy an extra game day). I think it was Mina who finally made a case against Gert. Kat's vote for Spidey also felt odd, like she had given up on trying to divert the lynch. Lany's post #382 gives me pause, though. For Lany to be Spider's partner she definitely cut him loose there (and the subsequent posts). Lany's vote on Mina could be opportunistic, but if we assume Spidey was guilty, then Mina is a reasonable choice. I didn't like Kat's resistance to the idea of building a train on someone other than Spidey. I realize she assumed it was being too tunneled on Spidey/partners, but it would have been an opportunity to discuss other people in depth, regardless.

If Spidey is innocent (or independent of Spidey)

Most suspicious: Sir Thursday, Lany, Mentat

Less suspicious: Mina, Pebbles, Kat

Not an option: Malc

If Spidey was innocent, then Mina and Pebbles look much better. Kat is not partnered with Mentat. She doesn't seem objectively scummy or connected with anyone. Even the connection to Spider is not real strond. That narrows it down to the other 3 in my top tier. Sir Thursday is there sort of by default as he is hard to read. If Spidey and Piper were both innocent, then he was way off on day 1. If Spider is innocent then Mina looks better, so his pursuit of Mina today is also off. At the same time, he is using objective methods and doesn't know Mina or anyone else well enough to use subjective methods.

and here:

stepping out for lunch. I will be back before the deadline. My preference is for Mina or Kat.

Lany is a compromise that I am not real excited about, but we are getting short on time.

In your first post, you placed Pebble in your top tier with me and Kat. In your second, you said you'd prefer lynching me or Kat over Lany, but you didn't even mention Pebble.

ETA: Also, did you read any of my epic wall posts of doom? I'd understand if people lynched us both because they genuinely couldn't make up their minds between us. But I'd appreciate it if you guys at least listen to my arguments, evaluate the case against both of us, and come to an informed decision, rather than just take the lazy way out. Because I think mine is the stronger claim.

[Mina Martell]

It's three in the morning here, and I have to leave the house at nine. I'm too tired to reread Day Two, do a formal partnership analysis, and make a huge epic case comprising every single post Pebble has made all game. Maybe I'll change my mind and start suspecting someone more than Malc when I take all the evidence into account.

I'll just point out a couple of scummy posts by Pebble from Day Three.

Well that settles any argument of Gert Guilt. I guess that means we can move on. I just hope Spider and or Meow was evil. Kat and Mina don't look good for their pushing Gert to be lynched or Killed.

Sir Thursday already explained the problem with this. It plants a seed of doubt against both me and Kat.

Lany What?

I wish my brain wasn't foggy.

1. I don't like getting rid of people early in games. I know I'd be dissapointed cos my fun would be cut short if I was lynched day one. people sign up to play the game not watch it from the spoilers. thats my personal feelings I feel sorry for the player. this dose not mean I'm against lynching day 1. I used to let these feelings get in the way of playing, I got shouted at. - you say you looked to see where someone shouted at me. have you read all the spoiler threads I have played in? especially all the ones without CF?

She gets very snarky and overdefensive with Lany, which is really not in character for Pebble.

Just compare this to her behaviour in the most recent finder game. If Pebble thinks someone is innocent, she will defend them, regardless of whether people will "shout at her" for it. At the time, I didn't worry too much about it. But now I think this was a genuine contradiction. I doubt she'd suddenly change her Mafia playstyle between two games. I think that because she's evil, she doesn't particularly care who gets lynched.

2. on day 2 I have never been against Spider dying. If we didn't lynch him Malc was gonna vig him. where have I agued agiant that plan? I was against lynchign Gert. I agrred with LC it woulod be helpful to have lych tains to other poelpe. insterad of just rushig a lynch on spider with nothing to look back on.

have you acutllay read my posts? or are you just looking for stuff to twist?

No problems with her arguments in number two--I thought it was unfair to accuse Pebble for trying to spare Spidey here (but of course, now I think she wasn't Spidey's partner). But she also accuses Lany of "twisting her words." In retrospect, she comes across as quite irritable and overdefensiv

---

I'd also like everyone to compare Pebble's behaviour in the last finder game to her behaviour here. Not once has she posted her genuine gut impressions on every player in the game.

[Kat]

ETA: Also, did you read any of my epic wall posts of doom? I'd understand if people lynched us both because they genuinely couldn't make up their minds between us. But I'd appreciate it if you guys at least listen to my arguments, evaluate the case against both of us, and come to an informed decision, rather than just take the lazy way out. Because I think mine is the stronger claim.

I just finished reading a 25-page paper about how geoscientists think, and unfortunately it didn't make me any better at thinking about this damned game. :dunce: (It's too bad you and Pebble aren't objects that I can rotate and unfold in my head to solve the game. Curses. I'd be so set.)

Whichever one of you killed Piper, I hate you.

Anyway. All that being said, I'd definitely run through both arguments. I think your case for being innocent is better.................however, I hate role claims right before a lynch; statistically those people turn out to be evil. That, plus my constant declarations that I was going to lynch all claimants, or all suspects from both sides, or whatever the hell I said, still holds. And now is more important than ever, etc, etc.

So my last thought before I sleep on this is that I agree with LC that it looks like Pebble has a partner, or else she'd be pushing to stay alive right now, rather than being willing to use the Lynch Both strategy. That Mina is trying to do otherwise makes me suspect her, and also makes me want to lynch her first. On the other hand, with Pebble still alive, there's the possibility of her blocking/fake-blocking another night kill, which would give us one extra lynch, which would be awesome. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

[Mina Martell]

Look at these posts by Malcolm.

I killed Meow.

I am as much confused about Gert's death as you all.

Perhaps, they just agreed with me that she was evidently innocent.

I just hope she wasn't a finder and the finder will claim inmmedeately?

First of all, I've mentioned this in an earlier post, but I think everyone can agree that this is a terrible, ridiculous conclusion to arrive at. The killers agreed with you that Gert was obviously innocent, so they decided to kill her? WTF??? Since when do killers care about who they'd personally trust if they were innocent? I mean, if a player is lynchable, who cares?

Now this might make sense from an "inexperienced" player (to borrow Malc's logic).

But here's the catch.

TheMalcolm was one of the killers in the last finder game. He killed Arryn/Whiskeyjack rather than a finder because Arryn was a likely investigation!

In fact, let's contrast this with a later quote of Malc's, when questioned on why a proven vig would be spared:

For different reasons. Ask players who were guilty in previous game and let the announced and un countered vig to live for 2 or 3 days.

He was one of those guilty players. And you know who he decided to kill over the vig (because of the healer threat)? Why, a likely investigation target!

Don't you think his total inability to see why Gert might have been killed is more than a little disingenuous?

I know Sir Thursday suspects players who seem to know the scum's mindset. But someone playing utterly dumb like that is much more suspicious, IMO, because it means he's afraid to give away information on his state of mind. Killers play with their cards much closer to their chests.

[Mina Martell]

So my last thought before I sleep on this is that I agree with LC that it looks like Pebble has a partner, or else she'd be pushing to stay alive right now, rather than being willing to use the Lynch Both strategy. That Mina is trying to do otherwise makes me suspect her, and also makes me want to lynch her first. On the other hand, with Pebble still alive, there's the possibility of her blocking/fake-blocking another night kill, which would give us one extra lynch, which would be awesome. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Purely from a game theory point of view, it makes sense to lynch Pebble first. She wouldn't have claimed unless she had a living partner. On the other hand, I think I'd be extremely unlikely to be evil unless Spidey himself was--Spidey said so himself about my defence of him. This would mean that I'm a lone FM.

Obviously, feel free to lynch me after Pebble if you suspect me. But I'm still going to argue in my defence, anyway. Why shouldn't I defend myself if I'm innocent, and I think I can prove it?

If you lynch me and the game doesn't end, will you consider my points against Malc?

[Mentat]

Ouch! What a spamfest...

I'm quite firmly in the Mina camp, and thus would rather lynch Pebbles. I don't want her lynched before I have a chance to go on a mammoth re-read looking for possible partners. I now think the chances of Spider being evil are almost 100%, so at the very least we'll get 2 FM before we go down.

The logical thing would be to lynch both claimants. I want to see how likely the different partnerships are, though, to see how many options we have.

I'm definitely voting Pebbles today barring some extreme weirdness (LCOTNW, this would be the perfect moment to come out and say, actually, I WAS the finder, tadaaaaaa!!!!).

[Mina Martell]

Because somebody else answered that. I don't remember who but agree with the answer: it was still posssible that evil Lany put second vote on evil Spidey, probably intending switching later.

Well, hello, there.

Here's the post in which I made my Lany accusations.

Here's the post in which Malc checks out for the night.

I'd like everyone to read the page or so between both posts, and point out just where someone answered my points against Lany during that time frame.

You won't be able to find them.

You are lying, TheMalcolm.

[Mentat]

Look at these posts by Malcolm.

*stuff*

Do you really think Malc could be FM? Why did you heal him then? Taking Malc out of the CI pool and putting him back in the suspect pool opens a whole new can of worms, so I hope you know what you're doing...

[Mentat]

Lets add to that, I think we can agree Malc is almost certainly a vig, and that Spider was almost certainly evil. In what planet does 3 FM (one of them with vig powers!) make sense in a 12 player game?

[Mentat]

I never said whether or not I used my heal on N2.

I don't know if that's information I should reveal.

The players I trust now are Kat, Lany, and to a lesser extent, mentat. I'd like their opinion, when they get back, on whether I should reveal if I have a heal left over. If they feel that the information would be useful, I will quote the PM I sent on N2 in full.

I'd rather you said nothing. It's information that I don't need to know and isn't likely to affect my game play as an innocent. I'd say you should probably use it if you have it, but that's about it.

[Mina Martell]

Do you really think Malc could be FM? Why did you heal him then? Taking Malc out of the CI pool and putting him back in the suspect pool opens a whole new can of worms, so I hope you know what you're doing...

Because if Malc was innocent, he was the most likely night kill. And because I'm a crazy paranoid conspiracy theorist, and I know it. So I decided to play it safe and suppress my paranoia. Anyway, that was before Pebble's counterclaim.

Think about it. I healed Malc to be on the safe side, but you'd have to be the dumbest killer in the world to attack him with a revealed healer out there. That's why I think Pebble withheld--and probably withheld to make Malc look good.

If I'm alive tomorrow, I'll quote my night action PMs, and explain my reasoning in full. Right now, I don't want to reveal how many heals I have left.

To be honest, I don't know if I know what I'm doing. Just look at how wrong I was about Gert. I've been thinking it over, and I can really see LCOTNW's behaviour as fitting that of an RI pretending to be the finder--particularly given how angry he got with me. But he fits pretty well as Pebble's partner. I'd like to know why he put her in his top Spidey partner tier, but only wanted to lynch me or Kat. Or why he played so scummy on Day One, and kept hinting at being the finder on Day Two. And Sir Thursday also hasn't done anything to rule him out as Pebble's partner, IIRC. (I still need to reread Day Two, though.)

But I think it's Pebble and Malc. I've suspected Malc all game. From my POV, Pebble's reveal only makes sense if Malc is her partner. And I think his reaction to the reveal today was damn scummy--quickly declaring himself a CI and Spidey certainly guilty, taking the middle road on the reveal...Finally, I think that one evil vig vs. 1 finder and 1 two-shot healer just fits in a twelve-player game.

I also noticed something very, very important.

Pebble acted utterly shocked at the idea of me thinking a finder, a two-shot healer, and a vig didn't fit the balance. But Pebble was the first person to bring up the possibility of an evil vig, here.

-----------------

Now it's four in the morning. I should

I'll be working until six, but I should be back before the lynch. If you guys decide to lynch me in the end, then please wait until I come back from work, first. However, I'd like to make a little announcement:

If I have a second heal, I will not heal either myself or TheMalcolm tonight. FM, you have a clear shot at either of us.

With no healer threat, how will you explain your continued survival now, Malc? Let me guess. You'll suddenly see the light and start supporting a Mina lynch today, right? Because it's so important that the vig who's used his power is healed?

I'm open to changing my mind, but someone will have to make a brilliant case for me before I get back.

[Mina Martell]

Lets add to that, I think we can agree Malc is almost certainly a vig, and that Spider was almost certainly evil. In what planet does 3 FM (one of them with vig powers!) make sense in a 12 player game?

Aak, now you're making me doubt myself again. :frown5:

Um...I dunno. FM, um, that ultimatum might not be 100% set in stone. We'll see.

I don't think Spidey was certainly evil--even you had doubts at the end over his reactions. I'll admit Pebble would have been more likely to hammer if Spidey was innocent, though. But consider how when people started bringing up Pebble as a potential Spidey partner, she started attacking him like crazy--as if to prove that she wasn't his partner. I might just be tunnel-visioned on Malc, though. It really could be LC or Sir Thursday.

The way I see the game balance is this: 1 FM-vig, 1 FM vs. 1 finder, 1 two-shot healer, and 7 RIs

Now I'm really off to bed. Yay, no more spamming from me for the next sixteen hours or so!

[Mina Martell]

Um, Raspberry Ripple, can you update the end-of-day timer? I think I'll be back before the lynch, but I'm not sure.

[Mentat]

I don't think Spidey was certainly evil--even you had doubts at the end over his reactions. I'll admit Pebble would have been more likely to hammer if Spidey was innocent, though. But consider how when people started bringing up Pebble as a potential Spidey partner, she started attacking him like crazy--as if to prove that she wasn't his partner. I might just be tunnel-visioned on Malc, though. It really could be LC or Sir Thursday.

Okay, I've just re-read the game considering Ser Spider as evil, and you truly come out looking awful Mina. I actually realized you were begging the vig to kill Gertrude on night 2 <_<

To be perfectly honest, I think I'd sooner vote you out than Malc. Also, I really, really doubt the FM would have held their kill. It hasn't been done for ages and it's a really silly move with all the revealed people around. I find it far more likely that the FM thought you would heal yourself (if Pebbles is FM) or that the FM thought the healer was dead since there was no counter (if you're FM). That said, if you were the healer I would expect you to heal Malc rather than yourself... the problem is I'm guessing the FM would too.

Kat, Malc and Lany, I'd really like to know your stance on Ser Spider. Evil caught on day 1 or Innocent 'genius' caught in his own web of lies?

Because to anyone who thinks Spider is likely evil both Sir Thursday and LCOTNW come looking immaculately clean.

[Mentat]

If I have a second heal, I will not heal either myself or TheMalcolm tonight. FM, you have a clear shot at either of us.

Ugh. Please don't give the FM pointers as to who you will heal and who you won't. It's always better to use a heal to block a night kill than to use it to prove a point. Please consider this: If Malc and Pebble wanted rid of you so badly that Pebble would counter you next day and ask us to lynch you both, then why not simply target you with the NK? If you die, then Pebbles keeps her mouth shut and, with Malc's support, tries to get someone else (Sir Thursday, whoever) lynched. If you don't die, then Pebbles can reveal and say she healed Malc and you can fight it out (and we probably lynch you both anyway, I'm afraid to say). Withholding the kill just makes no sense. It's provides no tactical advantage whatsoever whatever way I look at it.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 4.

8 players remain: Kat, LCOTNW, Lany Cassandra, Mentat, Mina Martell, Pebble That Hides, Sir Thursday, TheMalcolm.

5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night.

2 votes for Pebble That Hides (Mina Martell, LCOTNW)

1 vote for Mina Martell (Pebble That Hides)

5 players have not voted: Kat, Lany Cassandra, Mentat, Sir Thursday, TheMalcolm.

Updating timer now - should be done in a few.

[Lany Freelove Cassandra]

While I am just as paranoid as Mina, the lack of kill gives Malc a little breathing space in my opinion.

Still, I trust Mina more than I do Pebble. I will vote her before I leave work today (about 4 hours). Have a little furniture shopping to do this afternoon and I am not sure how long it would be, but I will be back before day ends.

Although Spidey had to go, I did express doubts about his guilt before we lynched him. I can find the quote later.

[TheMalcolm]

What I mean is that if I'd healed someone else, you would have been a CI if people bought Pebble's claim.

People shouldn't bought her claim. And yours either. There is no slightest doubt you both should be lynched, only questionable thing is the order. That is, if game won't end after lynching one of you two.

Considering your history of butting heads with Lany game after game, how could you be that convinced of her guilt in an altless game?

I never was convinced of her guilt. I just thought she was more likely guilty than both you and Pebble. I was evidently wrong.

[TheMalcolm]

You are lying, TheMalcolm.

Well, perhaps your point was answered even before you made it. I am absolute sure I wasn't only player to think that Lani's putting second vote on Spidey didn't give her an alibi.

He was one of those guilty players. And you know who he decided to kill over the vig (because of the healer threat)? Why, a likely investigation target!

I meant actually last game (where I was innocent and lose to evil lady Gaga and Azrael), not last game with finders.

In fact, I don't remember anything at all about the game you were talking about.

Only thing I know is that I'd never withheld (as evil) in 8-players position. I'd just kill you, since your claim would give a perfect alibi: everybody would think you were killed because of your role and not because you kept suspecting me. I am never subtle about such things.

In worst case, if you healed yourself, it would be no worse than withholding.