Game 71.5

[Sir Thursday]

And by today, I meant, y'know, tomorrow.

[LCOTNW]

Mina - In between thoses posts Malc pointed out that Pebbles wouldn't vote Gert on D2, and reminded that the case was limited to Pebbles' refusal to hammer Spider. You continued to attack her and voted her, while Pebbles defended and refused to vote her. There are other marks against you (Kat for different reasons) beyond the failure to hammer.

In hindsight, if Pebbles knew Gert was going to be the NK choice because of the potential finder investigation, that might have all been BS.

I'm out again for a bit.

[House Targaryen]

*YAWN*

Lany Cassandra has been killed. Now who would go and do a thing like that? Bloody bastards! Or bastard? Where did I leave that Coroner anyway??

It is day 5.

6 players remain: Kat, LCOTNW, Mentat, Mina Martell, Sir Thursday, TheMalcolm.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 3 to go to night.

6 players have not voted: Kat, LCOTNW, Mentat, Mina Martell, Sir Thursday, TheMalcolm.

[Mentat]

Ugh... I'm pretty drunk and not feeling all that well at all. I'll be back tomorrow.

I'm thinking lynching Mina is probably the move that makes most sense now, but I'll try and reflect on that properly when my head's a little clearer.

[Mina Martell]

Fuck.

I have a confession to make now.

I actually wasted both my heals on Malc, on N2 and N3. I was hoping to scare the FM away from Lany and WIFOM them into killing someone else (preferably Malc, if he was innocent).

Yes. I healed my current top suspect. Twice. When this game is over, I'm changing my custom title to "Worst. Healer. Ever."

Apparently, I'm not allowed to quote night action PMs, but I'll explain my reasoning. Even on Day Two, I was paranoid about Malc. Remember that I'd suspected him both because of his own play and his links to Gert (who I was tunnel-visioned on)...and then he claimed vig, which didn't seem to fit the balance. But then I came up with this stupid reasoning that if Malc really was the vig, then we'd be down to eight players and lose a day--so it would be more important to use the heal when it was most likely to be successful (the night an innocent vig claimed). I figured either I'd block the vig's death on N2 or the finder's death on N3. It was stupid, stupid logic that made no sense, because my heals would have a greater chance of being successful on N3 and N4. And odds are, the FM weren't going to target Malc because of the healer threat, anyway. In my defence, I wasn't thinking very clearly then, and didn't work out the math.

But more than that, I think it was that subconsciously, I wasn't confident in my own judgment--so even though I had my doubts, I told myself that I couldn't leave a claimed vig unprotected just because of my paranoia.

Even when I went to bed afterward, I knew it was a mistake. It was a stupid, stupid decision that probably lost us the game. Otherwise, I would have protected Lany tonight and won us a day. And maybe you'd have been less likely to lynch me. This sounds horribly convenient, and I know it.

Ugh. Why did LCOTNW have to return to the thread just before night ended? I didn't have a night action to send in this time around.

I've really fucked this game up. Even worse than Spidey did, if he was innocent (and I really think he was now).

[Mina Martell]

Damn it. I have laundry to do, and I'd really like to go to bed early-ish tonight for once. Tomorrow, I'll be at work all day, so I won't be able to respond to the accusations against me. This is just a scattershot collection of stuff I've noticed from rereading the first two days:

-Malc and Pebble both put each other in their "good vibes" list on Day One. Pebble is wishy-washy on Spidey--I suppose they could fit as partners--but chides Spidey for hurting Sir Thursday's feelings. She says there isn't enough to form an opinion on LCOTNW, Kat, or Sir Thursday. (Even though ST posted quite a bit, although mainly about the theory of scumtells. Actually, she hasn't formed opinions on anyone. My god. Why did I trust her again?)

-These posts are very scummy:

Gert, I wonder why so strong player like you is trying to make a fuss out of such obviously joking post. It looks absolutely innocentish from my PoV.

What do you think about Speedy and Piper?

I can't.

I always was bad in proving evident things.

Just reread that post without a prejustice... if your role allows this.

Remember that he was talking about Lany in these posts...whom he later decided was his top suspect. Like I said before, in the Christmas game, he pulled the "bad in proving evident things" line, and the last jibe sounds like he's trying to make Gert look bad.

-Pebble, LCOTNW, and Kat were Piper's top suspects after Spidey. He was uneasy about Malc, but then started feeling better about him. He liked mentat.

-On Day Two, Malc is the first to bring up the possibility of Pebble being a Spidey partner (dammit) :mad:. But he votes for Spidey. He puts her as #2 on his potential vig targets, but changes his mind because she supports LC's plan. Could be distancing.

-Frustratingly, virtually no one else says anything negative about Pebble (other than Gertrude), and no one ever pushes a lynch mob on her. The only suspects tossed about other than Spidey are Chairman Meow and Lany. Sir Thursday brings up a point against me.

-When Malc brings up the possibility of vigging CM or Pebble, mentat responds with this:

This seems reasonable, though I'd rather you gave a rationale for your two choices. Chairman Meow has basically said nothing all game. When I wanted to lynch one of the low posters yesterday you pretty much jumped at my throat... I'd also like to hear what you have against Pebbles.

Malc responds by saying voting analysis makes her look like Spidey's partner. He never attacks Pebble or mentions if she finds her behaviour scummy.

-Ha ha, I'd just like to point out this post of Malc's:

In fact, rules don't contain any wording telling us that any roles might be given to evils. Which is a sign that all roles are good.

If there is an evil guard indeed, I am a loser - but it's too late to discuss this. What's done is done, I can't take my reveal back.

I don't know, does anyone want to confirm with DJ if evil players can have a role? Interesting that he never used this in his defence when I started suspecting him, though.

-LCOTNW basically goes after no one whatsoever throughout all of Day Two, other than Spidey. Most of his arguments are on the theory of lynching-Spidey+vigging-the-partner vs. the other option. It's kind of ridiculous. That said, he does come across as earnest in his desire to get more information.

-You know what? I think that based on these posts, Spidey was probably innocent.

-I'll toss Malc a bone and say that both Gert and Pebble (haha) did make arguments on Day Two that Lany could be partnered with Spidey.

-Pebble lists her suspects here:

as to who is the most suspect, you mean other than Spider? well I'm finding that hard. not enough info on meow, cept he wanted to kill gert yesterday. could lynch him. Thurs don't make sences as a partner to spider so I;m feeling better about him than I would due to my belief that spider is evil. LC is similar but not as good.

I am uneasy about Kat, but I can't really find anything suspect.

(My GOD. I called her "Pebbocent," for fuck's sake. Seriously. This is the wishy-washiest crap I've ever read.) Anyway, her only quasi-suspects are Meow, LCOTNW, and Kat. But it's really hard to tell if it's distancing.

-Malc pushes Lany and Sir Thursday as lynches on Day Three. Mentat and Kat are unwilling to. Sir Thursday votes for me immediately.

I'd also like to point out something self-serving:

Lany, I still prefer the lynch-Gert, vig-Spidey possibility, because I think that even if Malc vigs Spidey, an investigation of Spidey will tell us more than an investigation of Gert. Remember, if the FM have a guard and Spidey is evil, they'll be forced to use it on Malc to block his vig kill, leaving the finder clear to investigate him. So either Spidey dies tonight, or he'll be lynched tomorrow AND we'll have concrete evidence that he's evil. And his partners should be pretty easy to catch.

I also think Malc would be more comfortable vigging Spidey than Gert.

If I were Spidey's partner, I wouldn't support a plan in which he was investigated. Because if Spidey is confirmed evil, then I go down with him.

I'm not sure if I should keep on pointing out evidence that works for me and against Pebble, since I kind of agree the best strategic move is not to let me go to the final three unless everyone is super-confident in my innocence. The new reread function makes it a giant headache to read Pebble in ISO to prove where she's been wishy-washy or inconsistent on suspects. But at the very least, it'll help people in the final three make a decision.

[Mina Martell]

I'd still like to see Kat's reasoning for why she voted Lany over Pebble. But Pebble really did seem to be setting up Kat as an alternative lynch to me. I don't think Kat is Pebble's partner. And just based on the timing of her posts and her reactions, I feel that she's innocent. I see that Malc has set himself up to support a 3 FM, Spidey-Pebble/Mina-Kat team, though. If he votes for Kat tomorrow, please ignore him.

I didn't want to say this during the night, but I think Sir Thursday is innocent for wavering on the lynch-both-Pebbles-and-Mina plan. I also just realized that he could have revealed as the finder once LCOTNW's claim had claimed RI. Him not doing so is a point in his favour.

I think mentat would fit as Pebble's partner, considering he pushed Lany over her on D3. I don't think he's ever so much as said a negative word about her all game--as much as that's...um, out of character for him as an FM. But I really think that our interaction yesterday was genuine. I think he's too laid-back to be evil. Also, the counterclaim plan makes no sense coming from him. Think about it. Sir Thursday, LCOTNW, and Kat were all more lynchable than him--and unlike Malc, no one would wonder if he didn't die. In other words, he's virtually CI.

Leaves LCOTNW and TheMalcolm.

My gut tells me it's TheMalcolm. If you reread my posts, I've pointed out scummy things he's done over and over again, although no one has listened to me. That said, I think that mentat's case on LC from Day Three was pretty accurate--LC has been damn wishy-washy all game. I just think LCOTNW's plan to reverse the lynch-and-vig order looks relatively innocent, and his anger over my badgering makes a lot of sense from the POV of a roleless innocent who was trying to draw a night-kill. Of course, night ending during Malc's usual sleeping hours, and not long after LC came back, makes LCOTNW look bad, but that could have been a coincidence or a frame job.

LCOTNW, I'm sorry to be a little harsh, but I have to say, your play has been kind of lacklustre for an RI. Why have you been more wishy-washy and reluctant to post definite opinions than usual?

[Kat]

I'd still like to see Kat's reasoning for why she voted Lany over Pebble. But Pebble really did seem to be setting up Kat as an alternative lynch to me. I don't think Kat is Pebble's partner. And just based on the timing of her posts and her reactions, I feel that she's innocent. I see that Malc has set himself up to support a 3 FM, Spidey-Pebble/Mina-Kat team, though. If he votes for Kat tomorrow, please ignore him.

I said I'd address this and now that I'm done with the parade, I'll try to explain.

So on Day 3, I thought the most likely roles for the innocents were a finder and a vig. That's it, no healer, but there obviously was one, so I guess I was wrong about at least part of that. Anyway. Having that particular role combination meant there were most likely only 2 FM, which...I hope it's true, because otherwise if Pebble was evil and Mal is her partner, then I don't know who their third partner would have been since we haven't lynched anyone else, which means if we lynch you today, then we're finished. Back on topic, on Day 3, under that assumption, either Spider was evil and his partner was you or Pebble, or there were two independent evil people. You may recall that I pushed lynching Gertrude and vigging Spider because I thought one of them was evil but couldn't discern which one. On Day 3 I still wanted to lynch someone who couldn't be Spider's partner, whereas everyone else seemed content with trying to lynch Pebble or you as possible partners to Spider. My goal was to lynch someone independently suspicious, but of all of the people who fit that profile, Lany was gaining momentum but I suspected her least. Then, LC was doing his annoying not-finder routine, and that pushed the lynch so late in the day that all of the possible lynch options were people I didn't like. Being stubborn about my lynch strategy, the only person that fit into that was Lany. I'm glad we didn't lynch her now, in retrospect, considering we now know she's innocent, but I wouldn't have felt super bad about doing it then.

[Kat]

Mina- I'd like to hear your opinion on this:

If Pebble and Malcolm were evil, why would she need to counterclaim you that day? She was in danger of being lynched, but Mal wasn't. Withholding their kill to set up whoever you healed that night would have been perfect: at that point, what they would have required would be complete non-suspects/CIs so they could safely nightkill people before Mal. I assume that would be you, Lany, and probably Mentat. So why did Pebble claim?

[Mina Martell]

Well, perhaps your point was answered even before you made it. I am absolute sure I wasn't only player to think that Lani's putting second vote on Spidey didn't give her an alibi.

I found the quotes (from waaaay back in Day Two), but couldn't you have found them yourself? Have you done a single reread all game? You realize that if you're innocent, we're close to losing the game? Or do you just not give a shit anymore?

TheMalcolm, if you're evil, then you're going to win this game. I'm wasting hours and hours of my time on this. At this point, no matter what I say, I'll be lynched, and you're going to coast to victory. Please do me the respect of at least working for it.

I meant actually last game (where I was innocent and lose to evil lady Gaga and Azrael), not last game with finders.

In fact, I don't remember anything at all about the game you were talking about.

Fair enough about the wrong game...but you don't remember a game you played in September? In which you killed a likely investigation target on N2? Particularly considering that this was the mixed friends game with all the drama involved?

Only thing I know is that I'd never withheld (as evil) in 8-players position. I'd just kill you, since your claim would give a perfect alibi: everybody would think you were killed because of your role and not because you kept suspecting me. I am never subtle about such things.

In worst case, if you healed yourself, it would be no worse than withholding.

If you killed me (when the timing of my reveal was pretty sketchy), people would start wondering about your survival. But why nightkill me when you can get me lynched?

Okay. I've explained why I think Kat, Sir Thursday, and mentat are innocent. At this point, I see two partnerships, Pebble/LCOTNW and Pebble/TheMalcolm. (I suppose it could still be ST). I'll say what I think their plan could be.

Option A: Pebble/LCOTNW (or ST) scumteam

Fairly obvious. Pebble and LC were in danger of lynches, and if I died, the suspect pool would be further narrowed. With me and Lany cleared, Pebble and Kat were the only two potential Spidey partners. LC was likely to be lynched in endgame. So it makes sense for Pebble to counterclaim and get me lynched, then for LC to argue in endgame for the lynch of. Kat explained it.

Option B: Pebble/TheMalcolm scumteam

Let's say they kill me, and I haven't healed myself. The suspect pool looks like this:

Kat, Lany, TheMalcolm, Pebble That Hides, mentat, Sir Thursday, LCOTNW

Now, Malc has insisted all game that Spidey was a killer. And his favourite suspect (Lany) has been cleared. Who's he left with? Fine. He was pushing Sir Thursday as another option to Pebble, even though he can't be partnered with Spidey. Let's say people go along with it.

Next night. Lany dies. Even though there's no healer.

People scratch their heads a little, but move on (since Lany was CI). Leaves Kat, TheMalcolm, Pebble That Hides, mentat, LCOTNW.

I suppose Malc could get away with pushing a lynch on Kat...but remember that Pebble was the the other lynch option beside me and Lany on D3. With Lany and I cleared, she was the best option to be Spidey's partner. I doubt people would buy him being certain of her innocence solely because Pebs trusted Gert (who was conveniently night-killed that night). Odds are that Pebble won't survive the night.

So then the nightkill is...mentat?

Is this when people start wondering why Malc is still alive? Particularly when we know that there was a confirmed innocent healer, and the healer threat is gone? And when three innocent roles vs. two FM is rather unconventional balance in a twelve-player game?

I think it made much more sense to withhold. There was no downside to it for a Malc-Pebble team. It gives them a free lynch. And furthermore, the "healer threat" means Malc has an alibi--because if Pebble is lynched second, everyone will assume the FM were afraid to target Malc that night. Note that Malc was also fishing before to find out if I had another heal.

[TheMalcolm]

It's quite disappointing. I'd prefer to be at the spoilers heaven now.

I feel being frame either by Mina or by somebody who is cleverly manipulating her.

Anyhow, nothing happened that should force us to stop following the plan.

Mina Martell.

[Mina Martell]

Mina- I'd like to hear your opinion on this:

If Pebble and Malcolm were evil, why would she need to counterclaim you that day? She was in danger of being lynched, but Mal wasn't. Withholding their kill to set up whoever you healed that night would have been perfect: at that point, what they would have required would be complete non-suspects/CIs so they could safely nightkill people before Mal. I assume that would be you, Lany, and probably Mentat. So why did Pebble claim?

My last post was a crosspost, but I think it answers your question.

I see your point that withholding would have been a good strategy (although note that Malc insisted he would never withhold the kill for no reason). This way, Malc could explain his survival for an extra night.

Actually, that would have been smart:

N3: Withhold

N4: Kill Lany (because of the "healer threat")

N5: Kill me

But since I obviously wouldn't have healed anyone other than myself, TheMalcolm, or Lany on N3, I wouldn't have provided them with an extra CI.

Then again, who knows? They might not have considered that plan. Maybe Pebble just thought a counterclaim battle would be fun. Killers don't always play optimally.

Either way, Pebble was going to be lynched eventually. The way I see it, there was no downside to it, regardless of whom her partner was.

[TheMalcolm]

I found the quotes (from waaaay back in Day Two), but couldn't you have found them yourself? Have you done a single reread all game?

No. It was by memmory only.

You realize that if you're innocent, we're close to losing the game?

No.

We most likely have one killer among six living players which is pretty normal. If it isn't you, we need to go to night tomorrow and than to choose rightly. It won't be too difficult, since two kills will reduce suspect pool tremendously.

Fair enough about the wrong game...but you don't remember a game you played in September? In which you killed a likely investigation target on N2? Particularly considering that this was the mixed friends game with all the drama involved?

Ah, that game. I remember most of it but not the reasons why I chose some partrivular kill. Ok, perhaps I killed potential investigation target then. So what?

[Mina Martell]

It's quite disappointing. I'd prefer to be at the spoilers heaven now.

I feel being frame either by Mina or by somebody who is cleverly manipulating her.

Anyhow, nothing happened that should force us to stop following the plan.

Mina Martell.

Oh.

Fucking. Give. Me. A. Break.

Here's an exercise for you.

Get off your ass, reread the thread, and tell me one thing.

Whose claim do you believe more, mine or Pebble's? And more importantly, why?

I'd like your opinion. In your own words. Based on our behaviour. Regardless of whether it's "the plan" to lynch me. Reread. Don't just push a speedlynch because it's "the plan." Everyone can lynch me if they really want, just to be safe. But stop being lazy.

If I'm lynched and the game doesn't end, tell us now. Who do you think is my or Pebble's partner? Explain why.

If you're innocent, then you've been playing a shitty, shitty game. In fact, you've probably been playing shittier than I have (which is saying something, because that would mean I've been wrong about all my suspects). I don't think you've made a single case all game. You decided to trust me, Pebble, and Gert based on the flimsiest of evidence. You started suspecting Lany at the drop of a hat. I don't think you've written a post more than two paragraphs long all game--and even for you, that's bad. Now that your roleclaim has saved your ass, you've stopped putting any effort into this.

[TheMalcolm]

Either way, Pebble was going to be lynched eventually. The way I see it, there was no downside to it, regardless of whom her partner was.

Exactly.

So, your argument that counterclaim would be most favorable for me as a partner is nullified.

And, by the way, if you think I so much care about explaining staying alive, think why I claimed on day 2 under no pressure instead of waiting for couple more days. And why I claimed before the kill and not after? I couldn't know there was no finder.

[TheMalcolm]

Whose claim do you believe more, mine or Pebble's? And more importantly, why?

No idea. Yesterday, I trusted you somewhat more, but not because your arguments were convincing but because your eloquency is hypnotizing. Now I am in doubt again.

If I'm lynched and the game doesn't end, tell us now. Who do you think is my or Pebble's partner? Explain why.

If you are guilty, you probably have no partner. If the game won't end after your lynch, I'll deduce Pebble was guilty and my tiers will be 1) Kat, 2) Thursday, mentat, 3) LC.

Yes, I am lazy bastard and prefer not to do any work before it becomes really needful. The game might end today. And if not, I might (and hope to be) killed next night.

If the killer will be cruel enough to let me into final three, I promise you to work much harder then.

[Mina Martell]

Exactly.

So, your argument that counterclaim would be most favorable for me as a partner is nullified.

I still think it fits better for you, because you could use the fact that the healer targeted you to explain your survival, and because the first thing out of Pebble's mouth was practically, "Malcolm is a CI." My point was that I could see Pebble claiming even if her partner wasn't in serious danger.

And, by the way, if you think I so much care about explaining staying alive, think why I claimed on day 2 under no pressure instead of waiting for couple more days. And why I claimed before the kill and not after? I couldn't know there was no finder.

Because if there was a finder (with lots of CI investigations to reveal), then you could explain your survival? How is this a point in your favour? On the contrary, if the finder had survived, CIs would be popping out of the woodworks. Your logic is completely backwards.

Actually, claiming on D2 is a great strategy for an FM, because it means the finder won't investigate you on N2.

Okay, that does it. Now I'm sure you're guilty.

TheMalcolm

I know no one will follow me on this, but at the very least, if you decide to lynch me today, please, please don't let him slide tomorrow.

(Yes, I know my last words have always been totally infallible. :P)

[Mina Martell]

No idea. Yesterday, I trusted you somewhat more, but not because your arguments were convincing but because your eloquency is hypnotizing. Now I am in doubt again.

Oooooh, feel the power of my hypnotizing words! :devil:

Please read my posts and point out the flaws in my unconvincing arguments. I would seriously appreciate it if you made that effort.

If you are guilty, you probably have no partner. If the game won't end after your lynch, I'll deduce Pebble was guilty and my tiers will be 1) Kat, 2) Thursday, mentat, 3) LC.

I'll give you that Kat could be Spidey's partner...but Pebble's? Haven't you noticed that they've been trying to lynch each other?

And what do you think about my logic that it makes no sense for mentat to be evil? Because I know I said Pebble's partner might not be in danger, but mentat was probably in the best position of all of us.

Yes, I am lazy bastard and prefer not to do any work before it becomes really needful. The game might end today. And if not, I might (and hope to be) killed next night.

If the killer will be cruel enough to let me into final three, I promise you to work much harder then.

If you're innocent, and this is your last day in the game, then you owe it to your team to make an effort. Tomorrow you won't be around to help us find the killers.

But I think you're coasting because you're evil. You don't need to work hard until the final three, because two lynches in a row have been handed to you on a platter.

[TheMalcolm]

Because if there was a finder (with lots of CI investigations to reveal), then you could explain your survival? How is this a point in your favour?

Because if finder was alive, announcing my target would be rather helpful to him. Is it consistent to choose potential investigation as regular kill and, at the same night, to ensure vig-kill to be not investigated?

Please read my posts and point out the flaws in my unconvincing arguments

It's hard. You give us quote of yours and say it confirms you being the healer. What I can answer except this quote doesn't confirm anything from my PoV?

And what do you think about my logic that it makes no sense for mentat to be evil?

For now, I think it makes no sense for any player alive (except you) to be evil. But somebody is.

[Kat]

Look Mina, I'm almost willing to believe that you're not evil right now, but I think you're being paranoid and crazy about Malcolm. I want to hear from everyone before we lynch you, but I believe Malcolm is 100% CI and I'm fairly certain that everyone else does too. His claim doesn't make sense for an evil vig to make. Hell, if there were an evil vig, wouldn't it make more sense for them to just silently kill someone and never claim? Wouldn't it make more sense for them to kill a "suspect" at a time when it would be more convenient for the FM, which is usually later in the game?

I've been an evil vig before--in fact, Malcolm was the good vig who killed me--and I saved my claim for a time when I needed to be cleared, and my team needed another person gone for the math to work out in the end. I just don't think it makes sense for Mal to have claimed, when he did, as an evil person. No one wanted to lynch him; everyone was so focused on Spider being evil that lynching him on Day 2 was easy, and having a vig to save us then was not really necessary, nor was the Chairman Meow kill all that helpful for the killers. (Think on it--people who are total blanks are pretty easy to lynch. The killers could have easily let Mal vig Gertrude, who was an innocent that people wanted to lynch anyway. Then instead of using their night kill on her, they could have picked whoever they next most wanted dead.)