Relative army strengths of the Great Houses

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Less than 15,000 is what I think was actually fielded. 20-25k is everything they could reasonably gather. Including gold cloaks.

Probably. Someone should remove that claim, as the wiki has a lot of unsourced numbers like that. Anyway, Martin said that Tyrell gave a portion of his strength to Rhaegar at the Trident while also discussing how his siege of Storm's End served a strategic purpose. IMO it seems fairly clear that they actually WERE supporting the Targs, and sent at least a decent force to the Trident (it would seem awfully suspicious if they sent less than friggin Dorne). Maybe some of their troops were involved in those unseen skirmishes he mentions too. Until we actually get more info, I don't see a reason to assume that the Reach didn't send much.

Yes I was hoping we might have gotten some info, *cough, cough* about that at some point in 2014, *cough cough*, but apparently we already knew.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

The Stormlands is below average anyway, the westerlands just above. Maybe 70,000 between them today, reduce by 30-40% for pre conquest. So they have no numerical advantage even with the lowest figure for the Reach.

My original point was that if they have the higher value: 100,000+, which would be 60-70,000 before the conquest, then they would be more than not only the Reach and Stormlands, but probably the Riverlands too, and an internally stable Reach could conquer the whole continent.

Put another way, if the higher figure is true for the Reach, the lower figures won't make sense for other regions, as even if it is the most densely populated it wouldn't make sense for it to have 2x the population density of the riverlands or 9 times the population density of the north.

This reflects with the actions of characters in the Dance. If the Reach had closer to the higher estimate, and the Riverlands, Stormlands, North and vale can raise around the lower estimates, then Rhaenyra wouldn't hve even needed to bother sending envoys to the North, Vale or Stormlands, and would have been better off sending her sons to 1/3 of the reach.

France had 15-20 million inhabitants during the high and late Middle Ages, and never conquered the whole of Europe or even came anywhere close to doing so.

The Reach is also significantly larger than the Riverlands so it wouldn't need double the population density to have those numbers either. For that matter, the Reach seems to be about twice the size of the Westerlands, which together with it also being the most fertile part of Westeros should give it a very large total population.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

France had 15-20 million inhabitants during the high and late Middle Ages, and never conquered the whole of Europe or even came anywhere close to doing so.

The Reach is also significantly larger than the Riverlands so it wouldn't need double the population density to have those numbers either. For that matter, the Reach seems to be about twice the size of the Westerlands, which together with it also being the most fertile part of Westeros should give it a very large total population.

Napoleon might disagree, though he was a bit after the middle ages.

France was limited as a nation because it was very decentralised throughout much of the middle ages, and with a very powerful nobility most French kings weren't able to rely on the support they should have had.

There is also the problem that real world medieval nations weren't as blatantly imperialist as the Seven Kingdoms were prior to the conquest; we hear a lot about the West and the Stormlands and the North and the Vale trying to take lands that they have no blood claim to just because they thought they could, whereas historical kings didn't engage in wars of annexation (generally, there are of course exceptions) unless they had some moral or legal claim to the lands they were fighting for.

The Reach is ~1.6-1.7 times the size of the Riverlands, which means that twice the population density would give it just over 3 times the total population.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Napoleon might disagree, though he was a bit after the middle ages.

France was limited as a nation because it was very decentralised throughout much of the middle ages, and with a very powerful nobility most French kings weren't able to rely on the support they should have had.

There is also the problem that real world medieval nations weren't as blatantly imperialist as the Seven Kingdoms were prior to the conquest; we hear a lot about the West and the Stormlands and the North and the Vale trying to take lands that they have no blood claim to just because they thought they could, whereas historical kings didn't engage in wars of annexation (generally, there are of course exceptions) unless they had some moral or legal claim to the lands they were fighting for.

The Reach is ~1.6-1.7 times the size of the Riverlands, which means that twice the population density would give it just over 3 times the total population.

Well we don't know for a fact that the Reach has the highest population density in Westeros. It has the highest overall population, and is said to be the most fertile, but that could simply be a case of it producing the most food overall and having the most people overall. Not necessarily the most food and the most people per square mile.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

Napoleon might disagree, though he was a bit after the middle ages.

France was limited as a nation because it was very decentralised throughout much of the middle ages, and with a very powerful nobility most French kings weren't able to rely on the support they should have had.

There is also the problem that real world medieval nations weren't as blatantly imperialist as the Seven Kingdoms were prior to the conquest; we hear a lot about the West and the Stormlands and the North and the Vale trying to take lands that they have no blood claim to just because they thought they could, whereas historical kings didn't engage in wars of annexation (generally, there are of course exceptions) unless they had some moral or legal claim to the lands they were fighting for.

The Reach is ~1.6-1.7 times the size of the Riverlands, which means that twice the population density would give it just over 3 times the total population.

Napoleon never tried to conquer all of Europe and he didn't come particularly close to doing so either. His invasion of Russia was a response to them deciding not to follow his "continental system" (basically an alliance to starve out the British economy by creating trade embargoes against it all over Europe), not because he actually planned on annexing the place.

What you say about medieval France applies to the Reach as well. They also have a number of very powerful nobles who don't regard the Tyrells particularly well, and the kingdom doesn't appear to be particularly centralized either.

We don't know what the causes for those old wars were, but just because they aren't mentioned in the short snippets we get in TWOIAF or the main series doesn't mean that there weren't any. Plus, It's not like real medieval wars tended to need that great justifications either...

The Reach wouldn't need 3 times the total population of the Riverlands to be able to gather 100 000 men though.

[Ramsay's Penguins]

Mace knew at that point Tywin did nothing,so probably left houses like Rowan a Oakheart. (Both strong) to defend against him perhaps, and same for Dorne, with houses like Vyrwell.

50k - losses at Ashford - Men that the trident

A large number at a siege is a bad idea, and the Redwyne fleet was doing a lot of the work and supply I'd imagine. But to many sitting still is bad.

[Nihlus]

Could they even reliably supply that many men while laying siege to Storm's End?

[Ramsay's Penguins]

Could they even reliably supply that many men while laying siege to Storm's End?

Possibly, but not likely. Even with ships, well, the ships are maintaining a siege, not floating around the Stepstones.

They are in the middle (sorta) of enemy territory, so skirmishes from stormlords can happen. Not the most fertile region, high foraging given a forest.. Grem could make it so, but it looks a little weird. That is a lot of men. The besiegers would be starved as well as the besieged.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Possibly, but not likely. Even with ships, well, the ships are maintaining a siege, not floating around the Stepstones.

They are in the middle (sorta) of enemy territory, so skirmishes from stormlords can happen. Not the most fertile region, high foraging given a forest.. Grem could make it so, but it looks a little weird. That is a lot of men. The besiegers would be starved as well as the besieged.

Remember there was more happening in the Stormlands than just a siege; we have been told in an SSM that there was a lot of fighting in the Dornish Marches, and the fact that several of the occupants of Storm's End (Donnal Noye included) were killed or injured suggests that there was probably some fighting in that part of the Stormlands.

Bottom line is, if the Reach was sending any decent number of men to Aerys, why didn't Rhaegar have either way more with him, or way more at King's Landing?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Bottom line is, if the Reach was sending any decent number of men to Aerys, why didn't Rhaegar have either way more with him, or way more at King's Landing?

According to the author they did send men.

Tyrell had a sizeable host, but some of his strength was with Rhaegar, certainly. Rhaegar actually outnumbered Robert on the Trident

[Ramsay's Penguins]

Remember there was more happening in the Stormlands than just a siege; we have been told in an SSM that there was a lot of fighting in the Dornish Marches, and the fact that several of the occupants of Storm's End (Donnal Noye included) were killed or injured suggests that there was probably some fighting in that part of the Stormlands.

Bottom line is, if the Reach was sending any decent number of men to Aerys, why didn't Rhaegar have either way more with him, or way more at King's Landing?

I never knew this! I believe you, but is there a source, an SSM? I need to read them all one day.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

I never knew this! I believe you, but is there a source, an SSM? I need to read them all one day.

It was posted on page 5 of this thread. http://www.westeros....e_of_Storms_End

[Ramsay's Penguins]

It was posted on page 5 of this thread. http://www.westeros....e_of_Storms_End

Thanks a bunch! Never knew. Interesting.

There were a number of earlier battles, sieges, escapes, ambushes, duels, and forays, and fighting in places as farflung as the Vale and the Dornish Marches. Sorry, off topic. Just a thought though.

Probably refers the battling in the Vale and Dornish Marches.

Anyone's guess. I'd say castles of Riverlords. Maybe Robert besieged a Reach lord on the way to the riverlords.

No clue.

No clue.

Duels are cool! Lyn Corbray and Lewyn Martell come to mind, but perhaps other Kingsguard members.

Forays is so vague.

Gulltown?

Groovy! Dornishmen and stormlords? Definitely think they would have tried to stop them, and explains the small Dornish army.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Thanks a bunch! Never knew. Interesting.

There were a number of earlier battles, sieges, escapes, ambushes, duels, and forays, and fighting in places as farflung as the Vale and the Dornish Marches. Sorry, off topic. Just a thought though.

Probably refers the battling in the Vale and Dornish Marches.

Anyone's guess. I'd say castles of Riverlords. Maybe Robert besieged a Reach lord on the way to the riverlords.

No clue.

No clue.

Duels are cool! Lyn Corbray and Lewyn Martell come to mind, but perhaps other Kingsguard members.

Forays is so vague.

Gulltown?

Groovy! Dornishmen and stormlords? Definitely think they would have tried to stop them, and explains the small Dornish army.

If I had to guess I'd say the marcher lords were none too about Lewyn Martell waltzing through with 10,000 soldiers. As for the other fighting in the Vale, I'm really not sure, he was seemingly referring to a battle we haven't seen before, but we know about Gulltown, and I'm confused about what other loyalists would have been since the Corbrays and Graftons were already defeated.

If I had to guess I wouldn't say that the rebels feigned a retreat north, which may have involved some prior battles to make it seem less forced, Rhaegar followed them across the Trident and got defeated there.

We don't know what Jon Darry did, but if Barristan duelled anyone important it would probably be on his page in the White book.

Is it actually confirmed that Jon Darry died at the Trident? We know he marched out with Rhaegar and didn't come back, but he might have died in another battle or skirmish.

[Ramsay's Penguins]

If I had to guess I'd say the marcher lords were none too about Lewyn Martell waltzing through with 10,000 soldiers. As for the other fighting in the Vale, I'm really not sure, he was seemingly referring to a battle we haven't seen before, but we know about Gulltown, and I'm confused about what other loyalists would have been since the Corbrays and Graftons were already defeated.

If I had to guess I wouldn't say that the rebels feigned a retreat north, which may have involved some prior battles to make it seem less forced, Rhaegar followed them across the Trident and got defeated there.

We don't know what Jon Darry did, but if Barristan duelled anyone important it would probably be on his page in the White book.

Is it actually confirmed that Jon Darry died at the Trident? We know he marched out with Rhaegar and didn't come back, but he might have died in another battle or skirmish.

Probably the Sistermen, declaring their own king again. But that wouldn't incur fighting. I'd say another lord probably tried to block the high road or something, and failed. But that would serve the same affect as the Dornish marches battles, to trim down army sizes.

I'd say there were plenty battles in the riverlands. The burning of Lord Goodbrooks village is often overlooked, and other lords like Ryger, Whent (thats still up in the air), Darry and Mooton were well known as loyalists, so maybe they tried to stop the Vale lords from exiting. All are in a close proximity to the Vale. So Barry has no great duel (agreed), while Jonothor definitely died at the Trident.

[Nihlus]

Remember there was more happening in the Stormlands than just a siege; we have been told in an SSM that there was a lot of fighting in the Dornish Marches, and the fact that several of the occupants of Storm's End (Donnal Noye included) were killed or injured suggests that there was probably some fighting in that part of the Stormlands.

Bottom line is, if the Reach was sending any decent number of men to Aerys, why didn't Rhaegar have either way more with him, or way more at King's Landing?

Remember that the battle of the Trident was probably the result of multiple hosts on both sides coming together for one decisive engagement. They almost certainly didn't each just walk around Westeros as two 40,000-man hosts. It'd be nigh-impossible for them to feed themselves that way. So it's completely possible that there actually were, say, 15,000 extra Reach soldiers just wandering around in another part of the Riverlands, skirmishing with an equally sized rebel force, and not really knowing what the other two loyalist hosts are up to hundreds of miles away. The same thing was most likely happening in the Marches.

Also remember that the Reach is very vulnerable due to its position and terrain. With the Dornish to the south and the undeclared Westerlands to the north, Mace would want to keep tons of men on hand in case one or both of them decide to blitz the Reach, since the Dornish could have changed sides if things started to go south. 15,000 to besiege Storm's End + 10,000 at the Trident + 10,000 skirmishing around the Marches + 15,000 skirmishing around the Riverlands would easily account for most of the strength they mustered. The rest would be on hand to defend against Tywin and Doran (they believed Dorne had way more troops than it did).

[Petyr_Baelish_is_cool]

Reach - 90k
Westerlands - 55k
Riverland - 45k
North - 40k
Vale - 35 k
Stormlands - 30k
Dorn - 25k
Iron islands - 20k
Crowlands - 18k

[Adam Yozza]

I'd say Tyrell was definitely the top military power, not only because of the large numbers but because they had the wealth and fertility to support such an army.

Renly had 100,000 at Bitterbridge; I'd say about 70,000 of them were from the Reach. Mace Tyrell could call up another 10,000 men around High Garden; Hightower and his bannermen stayed neutral so that's maybe another 15,000, and then the Arbor probably no less than 10,000. So nearly 100,000 men for the Tyrell's, and thats not counting the old men and green boys. Scraping the barrel they could probably get half-again as many men.

Second I'd put the Lannister's. Tywin has 20,000 on the Greenfork, while Jaime enters the Riverlands at the Battle Beneath the Golden Tooth with 15,000 men. Stafford had ten thousand at Oxcross (including about 1/4 of Jaime's) so that's about 40,000. Plus the garrison's (Ashenmark and the Crag had some men left to field in battle, the other house's would have too) and Daven's small force (remains of his father's and the desperate sweepings), The West could probably raise 50-60k, since their vast wealth could hire sellswords, mercs and free riders.

The North, when stretching to anyone who can hold a spear, can raise about 50,000. The North is very underestimated. Robb couldn't gather his whole force in order to move south. I'll post how I come to this conclusion on the thread for Northern House's. The sheer size makes up for the sparsity of it's inhabitance

The Vale and the Riverlands I'd put tie in fourth/fifth. Even after a series of defeat's early in the war Edmure still managed to raise 11,000 men for the battle of the fords.

The Crownlands- People forget that this region is actually only a little smaller than the Stormlands, but much less mountainous and sparsely populated. Stannis and the Narrow Sea Lords could raise 5,000. The City Watch was about the same, plus the direct bannermen: I'd say maybe 30,000 total- 5,000 on the islands; 2,500 on Crackclaw; 2,500 on Massey's Hook; 20,000 on the mainland.

Then the Stormlands in seventh place. I'd say it could also raise around 30,000 plus the garrisons left behind to defend the castle's. Most of them are foot fighters though, and I believe it's mentioned that they can't field much heavy horse.

Dorne I guess could raise a maximum of 15,000 thousand men. Doran says that they could only support Danaerys with 10,000 but I think that is effective strength. The rest would be the sweepings of Dorne (if you can have sweepings in a kingdom where women fighters are much more common)

The Iron Isles are dead last. They send a few hundred men to Deepwood, 100 to the Stony Shore and a few thousand to Moat Cailin, plus (I think) about a third of their raiders staying behind. So maybe 10,000 men max. That's be about twenty fighters to each ship they have (they have 500, including the Iron Fleet)

[Free Northman Reborn]

So the analysis of the comparative military strengths of the regions inevitably revolves heavily around the precious few direct quotes the author has provided on the issue over the years. And probably the most discussed quote on the issue is his old reference to Dorne, the North and the Vale being of roughly equal military strength, although the North requires a lot more time to raise that strength than the other two kingdoms do.

Ran went into some depth in his Youtube video on the topic to try and assess, when Martin subsequently downgraded Dorne, whether the North and the Vale were downgraded along with the Dornish.

I have long referred to a second quote from Martin, in the SSM, which addressed this issue. But for the life of me I have not been able to find it again. Until yesterday, when, after trawling through old signing reports, I eventually found it, from a California signing in November, 2005. An audience member asked George the following question:

In an e-mail to a fan a few years back you stated that Dorne could raise roughly the same number of troops as the North and the Vale. Is this still true?

The report is in the form of a summary by someone who took notes at the event, and therefore not word for word what Martin answered, but it gives us some very nice detail on his thoughts. The reporter starts by stating that Martin did not provide a direct “yes or no” answer to the question (as we know he doesn’t like to get into specifics on troop numbers). We also know that he will not want to make the retro engineered downgrade of Dorne’s strength too obvious. So here is what was captured from his answer:

“He (George) mentioned the size difference between the North and Dorne and talked about the climates for each. He also mentioned that Dorne likes to exaggerate their numbers a bit so as not to seem militarily weak to the other great houses. Reminded us that the men in Westeros have medieval type education. Not every man can count, not every man can read. Gave the example of different mens viewpoints regarding the same army. The first mans count would be 10,000 men. The second man seeing the same host would say it was 5,000...”

So the above is very interesting. It achieves a number of clear goals from Martin’s point of view. If we look at the second half of the answer first, it provides an adquate in universe explanation as to why Dorne’s strength was originally overstated by the likes of Tyrion and others, and again by Quentyn to Daenerys. The explanation is the same that Doran provided to Arriane, namely that they deliberately overstated their numbers to outsiders, and that this overstatement eventually became an assumed fact in the minds of their enemies. In fact, by making even Quentyn repeat this claim – after Doran’s correction – shows that if even supposedly knowledgeable people like Quentyn casually refer to this inflated strength, then the fact that people like Tyrion and other Small Council members also assume this number is all the more believable.

He then further emphasizes how conflicting opinions on the size of armies is easily achievable in a time when people have a medieval level of education. In other words, if you are going to believe anyone on this issue, believe the most authoritative source, who in this case is clearly Doran.

So goal 1: Martin has confirmed that Dorne’s strength is indeed lower than the 50k spears that was suggested early in the series, and he has provided an internally logical explanation for it.

Now, if we look at the first part of his quote, here is where he is answering the direct question that was posed to him, which is whether the North and the Vale have also been downgraded along with Dorne. He does not address the Vale at all in his answer, but speaks specifically to the North. And how does he do so?

He does so by pointing out the characteristics that differentiate the North from Dorne. Firstly, he refers to how much bigger the North is than Dorne. And then he talks about how the climate of the North differs from Dorne’s. Why point to the biggest differences between the two kingdoms, unless you are trying to justify why their armed strength also differs? Especially referring to the North’s vastly greater size, which, far from supporting a downgrade for the North, is a differentiator in the opposite direction, namely a justification for the North having more troops than Dorne.

It seems quite clear from this report that Martin, without tying himself to anything too specific, wanted to

1: justify Dorne’s downgrade,

2: Explain why his former statement that the three were at the same level was correct from the point of view of most Westerosi (due to Dorne’s deliberate inflation of their strength)

3. Confirm in a roundabout way that the North’s strength is different (and in fact higher, than that of Dorne).

To me the obvious conclusion from the above is that Martin’s view is in fact that, no, the old comparison between these three kingdoms does not apply anymore, because Dorne was inflating its strength, and that due to the North being larger, it can raise more troops.

In fact, the above seems to suggest that while Dorne has dropped from its previous false position in the region of 50k men, nothing seems to indicate that the North has dropped substantially from that position (45k or thereabouts).

Just for completeness sake, there was a second report from the same signing, again just based on someone’s notes, which I quote below. It does not cover the entire answer, as this person was clearly not as interested or did not hear Martin’s response as clearly as the previous reporter, but it does serve as confirmation that the response took place.

“WRT Dornish troop counts, that Dorne's strength in numbers varied from person to person. Tyrion might have one perspective, Daeron (the young king) another, and Oberyn Martell a third. Each POV is of course right in his/her own mind, and the reader must judge who has the best info. I'll vote for Doran Martell on this one, rather than Tyrion.”

This report adds some interesting names that Martin used for comparison, namely Tyrion, Daeron Targaryen and Doran. And since we know that Tyrion likely based his assessment on a history book written by Daeron, it really comes down to Daeron vs Doran. And I share the reporter’s view that Doran is by far the more reliable source in this instance.

 Now, all of this begs the question: If Dorne’s assumed strength of 50k spears was based on a deliberate overstatement of their numbers, as explained by Martin in the quote above, then what was the Vale and the North’s commonly assumed (similar) strength based on? We certainly have no indications of either of those regions ever deliberately overstating their numbers. Put differently, there is a clear in-universe explanation behind Dorne’s 50k assumed strength, and why this differs from reality. There is no similar in-universe reason why the Vale or the North’s strength was also over-estimated.

If according to Martin they were all estimated to be of similar strength in the past, and if according to the signing report I quoted above he is careful to differentiate Dorne’s new strength from the North’s, then surely the North and the Vale should still be estimated to be where Dorne’s fals strength was, which is in the mid-forties or above.

[norwaywolf123]

Manpower "my Guees"

The North: 30K

The Iron Isles: 15K

The Riverlands: 70K

The Vale: 55K

The Westerlands: 70K

The Crownlands 25K

The Reach: 100K

The Stormlands: 30K

Dorne: 15K "Doran must lie about the strengt of Dorne, the young dragon claimed it was 50K to make his conquest more impressive thou it not more 15 or 20K at max"