Mafia 75 -- Revolution in Vanillaville

[House Sunglass]

Is it ridiculous or is it scummy, do you think? If it's the former, spare me your elitism. If it's the latter, say so.

I did say so -

Makes me think he's searching for a justification to vote for Frey later in the day, without actually attacking Frey or being associated with the people voting for him.

Thanks for leaving that out of the part you quoted.

Also, 'spare me your elitism'? What the fuck? How about you stop being so bitchy. Thanks.

On a more general note, I'm also willing to lynch anybody but a CI for a CF result. I am firmly of the opinion that we have no excuse to not lynch in a CF game.

No shit.

...Isn't that what Tier 2's supposed to be? If they did lean one way or the other, they'd be in Tier 1 or Tier 3.

For me, tier 2 is suspicious, but less suspicious than tier 1.

Look, I know a lot of people think playing by gut is worth shit, but it's how some people go about this game. As far as I know, no FM's actually tried to run an entire game claiming they're playing on gut, so I don't see why it devalues my opinion any. Of course it devalues my case, but there ain't no case in that post, so that's inconsequential.

Gut is pretty much the most useless justification you can give for suspecting somebody. There should always be a reason. And yes, it is suspicious, because it's an easy cop out for an FM. They may not try to 'run an entire game' on their gut suspicions. But they can certainly try to get by and survive by throwing gut around as a justification.

[House Reed]

Alright, the part of me that thought I'd just stay up until day's end was stupid. The sun's going to come up any hour now, and I'm beat. I'm going to try to check in before we're out of time, but considering that I've slept through my alarm every day this week, don't count on it.

eta: Estermont, being bitchy is fun. Sorry for that though, was probably out of line there. Anyway, as much as an FM can get by plying the 'gut,' I don't actually recall any that have. Not that no existing precedent makes it innocent, just that I don't see how one can consider it a red flag of evilness.

[House Tyrell]

Someone want to explain that mystery vote? Because mystery votes ALWAYS make me not want to go along with them. Maybe that's the point though.

[House Targaryen]

It is I, unVance, returning from beyond the grave!

...to count votes.

---

It is day 2.

8 players remain: "Blue" Estermont, "Brown" Tarth, "Green" Connington, "Indigo" Frey, "Orange" Fossoway, "Red" Ashford, "Violet" Reed, "Yellow" Bolton.

5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night.

3 votes for "Green" Connington ( "Yellow" Bolton, "Orange" Fossoway, Mystery Vote)

1 vote for "Brown" Tarth ( "Violet" Reed)

1 vote for "Indigo" Frey ( "Red" Ashford)

1 vote for "Red" Ashford ( "Green" Connington)

1 vote for "Violet" Reed ( "Brown" Tarth)

1 vote for "Yellow" Bolton ( "Indigo" Frey)

1 players have not voted: "Blue" Estermont.

[House Sunglass]

I'm not going to have time to read over everyone. Pretty frustrating.

Since Bolton is getting some attention, I'm going to go over him next.

1) Bolton to Westerling -

Your reaction to Westerling's accusation just rang a little false to me. Like for example, I'm taking a more adversarial tone right now in addressing people because I want them to react in a way that helps me get a better read on them.

You dismissed Westerling instead of trying to get your own read on him. That I find suspicious.

Only a minor point, and one that others have already brought up, but Bolton pointing out that he's taking an adversarial tone is pretty self-serving.

2) Bolton's first post after day 1, which has received some scrutiny -

Back guys, what did I miss? :P

Sorry, no way my timing on this one wouldn't look suspicious so I might as well own it. I was asleep 20 minutes ago.

Anyway, it doesn't help anything by saying 'I'm pissed' or 'I would have voted Ashford over Vance'. Both are true statements, but will inevitably end up looking like I'm trying to distance myself from the group's wrong decision, so I won't :P

I agree with Reed that the tone is overly nervous and conscious of the group's opinion.

3) Attack on Frey. I agree with the points he makes, which mostly focus on Frey being non-committal and wishy washy. Later casts a vote for Frey for these reasons.

4) I pointed out that Bolton was worried about Frey's lack of participation on day 1, but didn't say anything about a mostly absent Connington. He responded on day 2 that he recalled Connington for his 2 posts. I'm not entirely convinced - could be something to remember if one of Bolton or Connington flips FM.

5) Makes an effort to accumulate gold. For whatever that's worth.

6) Gets upset over Tarth's voting mob theory.

What old habbit are you talking about? One FM on, one off?

Do you have anything to back that thought up with at all?

This argument bugs the shit out of me...

Gah! I can't even describe how annoyed I am right now. There's nothing I can even address with it.

I don't even think statistically this holds true -- admittedly, I haven't done the research either, but it's just... not true. Gah!

And besides, you're on the list of players who didn't vote Vance too!

It's an argument that frustrated me because I have no defense against it. I mean, knowing I'm not the guilty party off of the lynch mob, I could turn Tarth's own point against him and attack him for also not being on it, but ultimately I think his logic is flawed.

As far as I know there's no hard data that says there will be one FM on and one FM off the lynch mob. Until there is it seems like a cheap way to draw suspicion to someone. I am suspicious of Tarth for using it.

I don't disagree with the theory entirely, I just don't think our lynches should be based on it alone. For one thing, I'm innocent and I don't want this argument to be one of the primary reasons I'm lynched (which is looking likely).

This is the biggest point against Bolton, in my opinion. He seems really worried about Tarth's theory. In fact, it's kind of so over the top that it might reach the point where I'm forced to wonder if an FM would really show all of his emotions like that.

7) Pushes against Frey some more, but then undermines that by saying -

To be honest as suspicious as I am of Frey I'm beginning to think he looks too much like Vyrwel from last game --namely an innocent whose just not willing to pick up the slack and contribute.

8) And then he removes his vote from Frey, due to his more recent posts and my analysis about Frey's vote. Interesting note - I didn't say that Frey was entirely innocent. Just that I don't suspect him if he isn't a partner to Ashford. Bolton kind of skips that last part.

9) Posts a bunch of short opinions about the other players. Seems to be trying to get all of his thoughts out before he is lynched (which he has concluded is likely).

10) Looks like Bolton was the one who thought that working for the gold looked innocent.

Which brings up a question. Bolton says this about Reed -

Reed - Had bad feelings day one/early day two, but they've somewhat dissipated due to his willingness to haiku. I know that sounds dumb, but it seemed like Reed was genuinely putting in an effort to get us our 900 points.

Anyway, last night (RL) I was willing to clear him on that alone, today not so much. I plan on doing a reread of him if I'm not today's lynch casualty.

Bad feelings, but somewhat diminished by the effort to get gold.

Then he posts his tiers -

Tier 1: Connington, Estermont, Ashford

Tier 1.5: Frey

Tier 2: Tarth, Reed

Tier 3: Fossoway

Reed is near the bottom of the suspect list. Meanwhile, I'm near the top. Yet I also wrote haikus and tried to accumulate gold for the group. Now, I'm not arguing that I should be cleared based on that. But if it influences Bolton's opinion of Reed, then why isn't he being consistent?

Bolton explains in part -

It did that for me too. I couldn't find Estermont's haikus. It makes me wonder what informative posts I missed just because they weren't there.

But I also think Bolton was around when I was posting those, so he should have remembered.

Bolton, can you explain this? Why did the effort to gather gold matter for your opinion of one player, but not another?

11) Anyway, then Bolton says he was poisoned. No clue what's going on there.

The major point against Bolton is his nervous reaction to Tarth's mob theory. Also a little bothered by his inconsistency, but I'll wait for him to explain that. That said, overall, I suspect him less than the others I've read over so far.

And it doesn't look like we're going to lynch him today anyway, since we need to see how this poisoning thing plays out.

[House Sunglass]

So its the middle of the night here. I just got home from work (yeah...that's right). We have a little over 2 hours until the deadline. And I'm the only person in the thread. That's kind of concerning.

Connington has 3 votes and I suspect him. The easy thing to do would be to vote for him and go to sleep. But....another part of me says that we really need the information we'd get from Ashford's CF. That would tell us so much more about the day 1 lynch.

Going to spend a few minutes re-reading Ashford before I decide.

[House Targaryen]

I'm here, too.

I felt so alone. :grouphug:

In hindsight, it would have been a good idea to extend the deadline so I wouldn't be forced to stay awake until an obscene hour to end the day more people could participate.

[House Sunglass]

I'm here, too.

I felt so alone. :grouphug:

In hindsight, it would have been a good idea to extend the deadline so I wouldn't be forced to stay awake until an obscene hour to end the day more people could participate.

Yeah, this kind of sucks. I hope some of the Euros show up before the day ends. I think they should if they check in early in the morning, but not sure.

So anyway....who do you suspect?

[House Targaryen]

Between you and me, that House Westerling looks pretty shifty. Have you noticed how he's gone silent on Day Two after starting out strong? It looks as though he's trying for the Red Sun strategy.

I also have the sneaking suspicion that he was distancing from House Vance.

[House Sunglass]

Between you and me, that House Westerling looks pretty shifty. Have you noticed how he's gone silent on Day Two after starting out strong? It looks as though he's trying for the Red Sun strategy.

I also have the sneaking suspicion that he was distancing from House Vance.

You're no help at all.

[House Sunglass]

Ashford -

Remove vote. I still don't like your play much, but that's not enough for voting, for some. :P

Why did you remove your vote from Connington? I couldn't find any reasoning to go along with the change of heart, beyond you saying that you now suspect other people more.

I am on the fence with Connie. I can see some inconsistencies in his posts and actions, but not enough to vote over others at the moment. Frey's lack of content and what he does have is so wishy-washy as to be not helpful put him at the top of my list. Frey

By that, did you just mean Frey, who you switched your vote to? Or me also, since I'm also on your top tier. And if yes, then what is your case against me? I couldn't find one.

-----

Overall, my impression of Ashford improved on a re-read. Other than my question above and my day 1 suspicion, I couldn't find anything strange or suspicious. Was actually kind of surprising, because I have been maintaining a negative feeling about him this whole time, as a result of the day 1 interaction.

Oh except there was one other thing. I did get a feeling that Ashford's suspicion of Frey seemed...forced.

It starts with a reaction to Frey suspecting Ashford and asking for Ashford's suspects on day 1 -

pot/Kettle much? Who are yours? We have equal time here and need other thoughts from you as well.

Did you really find me guilty? If so why?

Followed by this on day 2 -

I had expected Frey to be back and posting more today, but he is still mostly missing. All we have are a few wishy washy posts from day one. It's too hard to make cases on someone when they don't post anything, so I'll go on record and say we can't afford the dead weight. If he doesn't start posting, we should consider him a viable lynch. Time left?

Then the vote -

Frey's lack of content and what he does have is so wishy-washy as to be not helpful put him at the top of my list. Frey

An attack on Frey after Frey rereads Tarth but doesn't offer many thoughts -

So? Stop giving him a pass and press him. Stop being so wishy-washy. Do something useful.

Maybe I'm just reacting to the difference in tone from Ashford. He usually seems pretty friendly, but he's much more aggressive in some of his posts toward Frey.

[House Pommingham]

My oh my! I expected to be the day over to be honest. I want to go back to my bed! :tantrum:

Thoughts: I don't think the FM control the mystery vote. Balancewise.

Reed is worrying, even if he is innocent. Sorry, but someone who has Estermont and me on tier one of his suspects should deeply reconsider what he's doing. It feels almost as if he is not interested in a lynch today.

Anyone willing to lynch the croco instead of Connington?

[House Sunglass]

Fossoway -

1) Points out that Bolton was a bit too self-serving when he claimed to have an 'adversarial tone'.

2) Makes a few philosophical points early on day 1. Could be seen as easy contribution for an FM. At the same time, I know I've done the same thing myself, both as an innocent and guilty player.

3) Admits that he forgot about Connington on day 1. Tells Conn and Frey that its time to start participating.

4) Makes the first case on Vance. It basically consists of -

-"Vance called Bolton and Reed easy targets, and said that anybody who attacked them was suspicious. But he was wrong, they aren't easy targets. Maybe he's trying to look conscientious."

-"The argument that somebody is suspicious for making a weak case on somebody else is disingenuous and discourages new cases."

Valid points and worth a day 1 vote. But also not a very strong attack. I'm still waiting for Fossoway to take a strong stance on something.

5) Says he'd switch his vote to somebody who isn't participating -

As it stands, Ashford, Connington and Frey need to provide more content. I'm voting for Vance because of a perceived inconsistency, but if these guys don't produce anything of note before the deadline, I'd be happy to switch to any of them. There's no room for deadweight in such a small game.

Again, it's a pretty easy target.

6) On day 2, he votes for Reed to get him to explain why he felt Ashford was going after the FM.

Follows up by talking about the day 1 lynch mob. He says this about Reed -

Reed's vote seemed strange, like he didn't really have a good reason to pick one over the other, but had to pretend to have one (he didn't pretend very well though). As you can see, I've just tried giving him a poke about it, we'll see what comes up.

But then he quickly backs off once Reed responds -

Satisfies me for the time being.

Remove Vote

I'm going to call it an early night guys. Adios!

7) He also notes that Frey's day 1 vote was suspicious -

Frey's behaviour before the lynch perturbs me somewhat. I've always have been wary about public about-faces, and that's exactly what he did...

8) Later makes a point about Connington, but it once again seems very...passive...

Re: Connington. At the time, I was satisfied that Connington was starting to contribute in a constructive manner. However, as Ashford points out, his analysis of Ashford's play up to that point does seem to be unnecessarily trumped up. Claiming the word 'bothersome' implies a watered down opinion doesn't really make any sense to me, for example. I'll have a harder look later.

9) Instead of looking at Conn next, he goes after Bolton -

This seems like an odd post to me. First of all, it's an odd thing to get worked up about, and second of all, Bolton's behaviour once worked up seems bizarre. Usually, I would have expected someone in this situation to (a) argue Tarth's assertion, perhaps giving the reasons why he doesn't feel it's true, (B) suggest an alternative interpretation of the votes, or (c.) respond with an attack on Tarth to apply some pressure.

Instead, we have a very passive response. No insight, no argumentation, no drive to set the record straight. And that last "And besides" sentence reads incredibly defensively to me. It's as if Bolton really feels pressured by this, which doesn't really fit with the strength of the prodding Tarth is doing.

Bolton

But then he backs off in his next post, after Bolton reveals that he was poisoned.

10) Focuses on Reed, concluding with this -

In summary, I don't feel too bad about Reed, except that the Westerling read through seems a bit superfluous, and could possibly be a way of appearing to contribute something while knowing that it will be of little value.

11) Posts his tiers -

Ashford, Connington

Tarth

Reed, Estermont

Frey

Bolton

So Connington is in his top tier. He offers these details -

I just went and had a quick look at Connington. He doesn't really show up until late on Day 1, and decides that he's going to go and do reread-cum-cases on a few people. The players he chose made sense, and I like the style he does them in - weaves the posts he finds into an overall point of view on the player, instead of simply posting everything interesting like Reed does. I do find it a bit odd that he dropped a vote on his first case, and then proceeded to do two more. Seems to me that standard modus operandi would be to do all three and then come to a decision.

For a while I thought he might have been trying to deflect the lynch from Ashford on Day 1. There was the weak case from Ashford on Connington early on Day 2 that smelt very much like distancing. But I can't reconcile that with this attack on Ashford today, so I think that's out of the window. If either of Ashford and Connington are scum, I don't think they're working together.

The first 2 paragraphs are a whole lot of nothing. He's actually making more positive points about Conn than negative ones.

This post didn't quite seem right to me:

The sarcasm seems unwarranted - Tarth's observation isn't being posited as a serious piece of evidence, yet this response seems to suggest that Connington thought it was. Je ne l'aime pas.

Apart from that, he's given his position on Frey, made a case on Ashford, and briefly commented on Tarth's read-through of Reed, but that's about it. It seems as though he has an extremely narrow focus to me. He's not really given the impression that he has opinions about the other players, and that concerns me, because as an innocent I'd expect you to be doing due diligence on everyone. (Of course, having said that I'll probably end up crossposting with his tiers and some well thought out reasoning :P) I'd be naturally suspicious of Connington anyway because of his terse posting style (something that always makes me feel a little uncomfortable about a player), but on top of that there are a few other things that make me put him in my top tier.

And when we get to the negative, it's not very substantial. He doesn't like Connington due to:

-use of unwarranted sarcasm

-narrow focus + lack of opinion about some players

-terse posting style

The 2nd point is valid, but the 1st and 3rd are pretty weak. That's really all he has for a player in his top tier?

As for Ashford -

Huh, well I wanted to do a re-read of Ashford to try to pin down why I have him in the top tier, but when I try to find his content, I seem to be missing a bucketload of his posts...weird. Makes it annoyingly difficult to do a re-read.

So he doesn't even know why Ashford is in his top tier?

He finishes with a vote on Connington. But it seems more like it's by default than for any other reason.

Conclusion

This is kind of surprising, but I think Fossoway looks pretty bad on a re-read. I've had a good impression of him throughout the game, I guess due to his friendly nature. But now that I've read through all of his posts, I see him as non-confrontational and non-committal. And in a way that is even more suspicious than somebody like Frey. Frey is kind of blatant about his wishy washy opinions. Fossoway is much more subtle about it.

[House Pommingham]

Maybe I'm just reacting to the difference in tone from Ashford. He usually seems pretty friendly, but he's much more aggressive in some of his posts toward Frey.

I'm still not satisfied with Ashford. He only pops in from time to time but never participates in a longer discussion. The Westerling kill doesn't make sense for Ashford, but that doesn't say he is innocent. I blame myself for almost forgetting about him today.

Lynchable from my POV.

ETA: Estermont, are you the only one here? Where is the rest?

[House Sunglass]

I'm still not satisfied with Ashford. He only pops in from time to time but never participates in a longer discussion. The Westerling kill doesn't make sense for Ashford, but that doesn't say he is innocent. I blame myself for almost forgetting about him today.

Lynchable from my POV.

ETA: Estermont, are you the only one here? Where is the rest?

Yeah, I'm the only one who has been posting. And I should be asleep. Not sure I can stay up much longer.

As for Ashford...the biggest point against him right now, in my opinion, is that I want his CF result. I feel like that would help us figure things out on day 3. Especially if he's evil.

And I do still suspect him. I'm just not sure its quite as much as some of these other people.

[House Pommingham]

Yeah, I'm the only one who has been posting. And I should be asleep. Not sure I can stay up much longer.

As for Ashford...the biggest point against him right now, in my opinion, is that I want his CF result. I feel like that would help us figure things out on day 3. Especially if he's evil.

And I do still suspect him. I'm just not sure its quite as much as some of these other people.

So what shall we do?

Seems like we can choose between Connington or no lynch at all.

[House Sunglass]

So what shall we do?

Seems like we can choose between Connington or no lynch at all.

We're down to 54 minutes? Fuck.

I'll tough it out a bit longer and see if anybody shows up.

Personally, I'd actually like to lynch Fossoway right now. What do you think of him? I know we won't get enough people to vote for him, but I'd like to hear your thoughts.

If it comes down to Connington or no lynch, then I'd definitely vote for Connington. That said, I'm trying to decide who I suspect the most between him, Frey, Reed, and Ashford right now.

[House Pommingham]

We're down to 54 minutes? Fuck.

I'll tough it out a bit longer and see if anybody shows up.

Personally, I'd actually like to lynch Fossoway right now. What do you think of him? I know we won't get enough people to vote for him, but I'd like to hear your thoughts.

If it comes down to Connington or no lynch, then I'd definitely vote for Connington. That said, I'm trying to decide who I suspect the most between him, Frey, Reed, and Ashford right now.

I read your reread. He has been my blindspot (like Connigton). He's lynchable, but not my favourite.

[House Sunglass]

I read your reread. He has been my blindspot (like Connigton). He's lynchable, but not my favourite.

Who is your top suspect after Bolton and Reed?

[House Pommingham]

Who is your top suspect after Bolton and Reed?

Bolton is on my low tier right now. Frey and you, too.

Fossoway and Connongton I have to reread myself. Middle tier.

That leaves Reed and Ashford.

The problem I have with lynching Connington is the lack of defense by himself or his potential partner. He has been in danger for quite a long time, but he seems to be unconcerned about this. At least he vanished without pushing alternatives.

Edit: clarity

ETA: nice crosspost

:rofl: