Evidence to Discredit "R+L=J" Thread

[SerArthurHeath]

I can give you rebuttals to many of the points, if you really want them. It's really not that hard. The issue is that most of this is open to interpretation, and obviously my interpretation differs from yours. I realize I won't change your mind, and I know you won't change mine. The only person that can do that is Mr. Martin. I've had 14 years now to form my own opinions, so they're pretty set until Martin writes something that forces me to re-evaluate my thoughts.

I do admit to seeing the possibility that Jon is Rhaegar's child, as Martin has established the groundwork for it. However, he has also laid the groundwork for other possibilities, and it's those I choose to follow based on my own personal bias; which we all have, whether we choose to admit it or not.

Here's a small tidbit for you. I don't think Jon's purpose in the story is to be a hidden Targaryen. I feel his place in the story is to fulfill some purpose at the Wall. So, why was he a bastard? Some will claim it's because he's not truly Ned's son, and is in fact Rhaegar's. That works and it is certainly plausible. However, ask yourself this. If Jon had not been a bastard, would he have wound up on the Wall? I'm sure Martin could have made that happen, but thematically, it worked well for him to be a bastard, and has nothing to do with him not being Ned's son. Ok, so why is his mother a mystery? Obviously, it's because Ned refused to talk about her. It could be because he's keeping Jon's identity a secret, or maybe not. We do know from the books that there is one person he refuses to talk about. Why does he refuse to talk about this person, and would his refusal to talk about her also extend to his own son?

And I better stop myself, or I'll just keep going and going and going...

I just wanted to add that I've had some pretty good responses from posters in this thread, and I would include Dragonfish in there as well. That post I referenced was just an example of the stuff I dealt with a few years back that really turned me off from posting.

Well Jon going to the wall doesn't depend on him being a bastard (which I think he would still be if R+L=J) but him thinking he is and I'd argue that would be even more powerful if he were wrong. A key theme in ASoIaF is people making decisions based on false information

[SerArthurHeath]

Rhaegar was married to Elia Martell, who didn't look like a Targaryen, and yet their baby son Aegon had the typical Targaryen look accoring to GRRM.

Also, Daeron II married a Martell princess. All future (non-Blackfyre) Targaryens decended from them, so if only a brother-sister union would produce the typical looks, then it would have died out at the latest with Daeron II.

Genetics is more complicated than that, but there are still recessive characteristics and the rarity of Targ ones heavily implies they are recessive. It is possible for 2 brunettes to have a Ginger child but it is unlikely. The fact being argued was not that all half Targ's have no Targ features but rather that it is possible and likely for a half Targ to have no or few Targ features which your point doesn't attempt to address

[corbon]

I got a detailed answer, thank you! However, I feel that GRRM's answer to the question of Targaryen polygamy does some work to discredit the idea that Lyanna and Rhaegar had any sort of marriage which would be recognized as legitimate. He says, "However, the extent to which the Targaryen kings could defy convention, the Faith, and the opinions of the other lords decreased markedly after they no longer had dragons. If you have a dragon, you can have as many wives as you want, and people are less likely to object." That makes it sound as though marrying Lyanna was something that would be very difficult or impossible to do.

I think you are reading more into it than is stated.

The extent to which the Targaryens could defy convention decreased markedly, yes. But while they had dragons they didn't just defy convention, they totally ignored or flouted it.

So going down to 'follow it unless I feel it really is necessary not to' is a marked decrease. That still leaves the 'power' to ignore convention, if the will to do so is strong though, it is just that unless the need is great, it isn't worth the effort.

Nothing in GRRMs statement says it would be very difficult or impossible. Only that it was not as easy as before, when they did it with total ease.

We are kind of quibbling over 'degree' here. But in context, its pretty important. I really can't see why Rhaegar could not choose polygamy should he decide it necessary. None of the laws have changed. None of the cultural mores have changed. The precedents exist. It is really a matter of will (and if anyone has the strength of will, and the love of the people, to be 'unconventional' like this its Rhaegar). Its just that the Targaryens have generally tried to 'fit in' more since they lost their dragons.

I don't dispute that it would be easy to find a septon to marry them. But I disagree that the septon has no reason to spill the beans. The entire war started over Lyanna's alleged mistreatment. You don't think that that would be a reason to tell people that they were married and she was a willing participant?

No, that is not why the war started. The war started because the king executed some high nobles (not all of which were guilty, or even accused, of anything) and wanted to execute some more but those high nobles refused to 'come quietly', since they hadn't done anything wrong. Given no other choice, they chose rebellion.

Lyanna's abduction isn't even mentioned.

There is no certainty that the two events, Lyannas abduction and the rebellion were even linked in most peoples minds, being several months apart. It was Jon Arryn who first raised the banners of rebellion, not a Stark, and the Starks only one of 4 major families in the rebellion (and not the leading family either). And Rhaegar didn't even participate for teh first half of the war.

Assuming the septon was even told the status of the two lovers he married.

Yes, its possible that the septon knew everything. But it is just as likely, if not more likely, that he did not. Again, you are assuming the septon knows all the details we know, but a minor local septon generally knows little of the doings of high folk.

You are claiming that there is little chance there was a marriage (in other words, this is evidence to the contrary of a marriage) because the septon would have spilled the beans, but you have to make so many assumptions that are at best 50/50 calls just to get to that. That isn't good enough for 'contrary evidence'.

In general, the more people that have to keep their mouths shut about a huge conspiracy, the less believable it becomes. So far, we've got Ned, Howland Reed, and Wylla for sure, possibly some other servants from the ToJ and a septon. That's quite a lot of people who could blab.

Not really.

Ned - well, he's so good at keeping secrets he even keeps them from those of us who get to look in his head.

Howland - he disappears back into his swamps and is never seen again.

Wylla - that is 1 definite person, but then, she's the wetnurse and cover mother, and it is the life of the babe she nursed on the line, so it is not exactly difficult for her to keep it secret, especially as she is on a fairly good gig and well looked after thereafter. Besides, while she knows of the birth for sure, that does not mean she knows of any marriage

The septon - possibly another, but he a) might not even know anything more than he married two young lovers and B) has nobody asking about the event, c)no knowledge of anyone to 'benefit' from him spilling the beans and d) could well be risking his life if he did spill the beans and Robert found out (if he knows enough to spill the beans then he probably knows enough to know that King Robert would not be happy with his actions at all).

The KG (at least those at the ToJ and maybe some who were with Rhaegar) - well, the likely candidates there are all dead, except Barristan. And the KG are very good at keeping secrets - the best there are. Barristan may not even know, but I doubt he'd have blabbed even if he did.

That is it. I guess it isn't so hard to keep a secret after all, especially when most of those who know of it are either dead or protecting one they love.

Again, my point is that to consider it as evidence against R+L=J, you need something that is a bit stronger than saying 'well too many people knew about t for it to stay a secret. Because when you look at it, that generalised statement doesn't pass muster under the specific circumstances.

A year later, Ned's going to have year old Jon, not a newborn infant that would be presumed to have been born after Lyanna died. The bastard he's got is still the right age to have been Lyanna's child. Someone who knew about Lyanna and Rhaegar's relationship would look on him turning up with a child of that age with suspicion for the same reason that everyone on the boards does. You can only fudge the age of a baby that small so much. It seems to me as though Ned having a bastard is pretty well-known. Anyone who knows about Jon's existence and R+L's relationship is going to make a connection. Handwaving "Minor Septon 48910 might not have known" isn't enough for me to dismiss my concerns.

No, a year + after Rhaegar and Lyanna are secret married, somewhere in another part of the continent Ned turns up with a newborn baby that he acknowledges as his bastard.

Ned having a bastard is well know amongst the high nobles, and amongst the people of the North, whom Jon has grown up around and for whom Ned is a well loved Overlord. But that does not mean that Ned having a bastard is well known amongst the peasant population of the south. I mean, lots of nobles have bastards. Ned is just notable because he's stuffily honorable, so among those whom know him by reputation it stands out.

And I don't think that it is reasonable to expect minor septon 48910 who married Rhaegar and Lyanna in, say, March-May 282* to put x and y together to make 3 when Ned has a bastard son around October 283*. Assuming he even heard about Ned having a bastard at all is a bit of a stretch IMO. But assuming he knows Ned well enough to discredit Ned having a bastard is a bit over the top. And then assuming that he has any logical reason to connect Ned+Jon with Lyanna and Rhaegar ... I mean, why would he ever even dream of a connection?

* I'm not an expert on the timeline, but Rhaegar and Lyanna probably married very quickly after the abduction, if they married at all. Which means that there must be time for Brandon to ride from Riverrun to KL and then Rickard to travel from Winterfell to KL before the war even starts. Then around a year of war, and Ned doesn't go to the ToJ until well after he sack of KL - probably at least a month of strait travel time, and he was supposed to be cleaning up loyalist strongholds before he somehow found out about ToJ.

So it might easily be 15-18 months, give or take a few, between R+L wedding and Ned + Wylla + Jon turning up at Starfall.

Again, this is not all all 'gospel'. I just find your objections to be extraordinarily thin once examined.

It is a theory, and I think it's a good one. What gets on my nerves is when people (general people) treat it is fact. That makes me want it not to be true, but maybe I'm just a contrarian. :P

Well, that's entirely possible. :D

The thing is that most people who believe R+L=J know it is just a theory and not a proven fact. But it is literally so far ahead of every other possibility in terms of evidence, clues, and foreshadowing that it is easy to write it as though fact, especially when countering the generally inane objections that are so often, and repetitively, brought up to it.

(Also, Jon not having Targaryen coloring is a lousy argument against for me, too, I would have assumed he wouldn't. But I do think that claiming Rhaegar and Lyanna were married weakens the R+L=J argument in a lot of ways. It's a lot easier to explain everything being a secret and Rhaegar's actions if they weren't, imho.)

Well, on that we can just disagree. I think the 3KG remaining at ToJ after they knew that Viserys was the true king is ... just wrong. I don't think 'Rhaegar said to' is anywhere near good enough. If Rhaegar is dead, and Aerys and Aegon and the rest, and the 4 other KG dead, turned (Jaime) or out of commission (Barristan) the true King Viserys is completely unprotected. I simply cannot see how the word of a dead ex-heir can keep all three at ToJ in that circumstance - unless its prophecy shit that Rhaegar has convinced them of and that is too Deus ex Machina of GRRM for me.

Therefore, Rhaegar and Lyanna must have married, making Lyanna's baby the true heir/king after the sack of KL and thus keeping the three KG at ToJ.

Otherwise I agree, R+L need not be married and there is no other evidence that they did marry, so I would say that they probably did not (but not rule it out).

[corbon]

Please tell me if I'm forgetting something but why does Wylla have to know? Wasn't she just a wet nurse Ned found? She could have just been told he was Ned's bastard.

You aren't she doesn't need to know. Just casting the net wide, rather than narrow, in order not to miss a possibility.

[corbon]

I think some people want Jon to be legitimate because if he wasn't, then the Kingsguard being at the ToJ doesn't really constitute strong evidence of R+L=J. After all, if Jon is a bastard then the Kingsguard have no reason to be there, unless Rhaegar ordered them to stay. But if they're there only because Rhaegar ordered them to stay, then that doesn't really indicate that there was a child. If Jon was legitimate, however, then he'd be the heir to the throne, giving the Kingsguard a reason to stay other than "Rhaegar ordered them to."

More accurately, if R+L=J is a bastard, then the KG being at the ToJ is an unexplained anomaly. Its still a possibility, but many people don't buy into the explanation that a dead ex-heir's instruction is so much more important than a live king that all three KG leave the child-king Viserys totally without protection in favour of staying at ToJ. I mean, surely they could have sent at least one of their number to Viserys and Dany...

Ah, I see. Personally, married or not, I don't think it makes a difference in why the KGs were at the ToJ guarding Lyanna. Assuming Rhaegar would have legitimized Jon if he'd lived and taken his father's place as King, there was reason for them to be there. After Rhaegar, Rhaenys and Aegon were all believed to be dead, that would make Jon the only son of Rhaegar left alive and given what had happened to Rhaegar's other children, the KG were protecting the crown prince's last son who doesn't deserve to be murdered even if he is illegitimate. They were loyal to Rhaegar and protecting his family.

But until he was legitimised, Viserys is king, as a surviving legitimate male of the line. And since Rhaegar predeceased Aerys, he never got to be king to have an opportunity to legitimize his son.

And the KG at the ToJ seemed to be fully aware of these events, probably informed through Starfall.

Therefore you claim that they are choosing to guard an illegitimate male of the line while leaving the legitimate King completely unguarded. At very least they should have sent one of their number to guard Viserys in such a case.

Sorry, doesn't wash.

[Saulot]

The Targaryens mixes don't always "run true" like the Baratheon blood. That's why the Targaryens are so crazy about preserving their blood, IIRC. If I recall correctly, from Dunk and Egg, even as great a Targaryen as Baelor Breakspear resembled his Dornish mother, without the Valyrian look.

The Starks are similar. Jon and Arya are said to be the only ones in the current group to resemble Ned, i.e., to have the typical Stark look. The rest of Catelyn's brood all look Tully. Arya is said to look like Lyanna, and is also said to resemble her father. Ned and Lyanna both had the Stark look, so either of them could concievably have a Stark looking kid.

Still, wouldn't it have been hilarious if R+L=J was true, and Ned brought the kid home only to have him grow more Targ as Jon aged? That seems like it would have been a serious risk, wouldn't it?

[SerArthurHeath]

The Targaryens mixes don't always "run true" like the Baratheon blood. That's why the Targaryens are so crazy about preserving their blood, IIRC. If I recall correctly, from Dunk and Egg, even as great a Targaryen as Baelor Breakspear resembled his Dornish mother, without the Valyrian look.

The Starks are similar. Jon and Arya are said to be the only ones in the current group to resemble Ned, i.e., to have the typical Stark look. The rest of Catelyn's brood all look Tully. Arya is said to look like Lyanna, and is also said to resemble her father. Ned and Lyanna both had the Stark look, so either of them could concievably have a Stark looking kid.

Still, wouldn't it have been hilarious if R+L=J was true, and Ned brought the kid home only to have him grow more Targ as Jon aged? That seems like it would have been a serious risk, wouldn't it?

I think that's where if Ned were smart and callous enough he could say "ok, the rumours are true, Jon is Ashara Dayne's child by me, that's why he's got purple eyes and silver hair". I'm not sure he would, but if he was willing to save Jon and respect Lyanna's wishes, then it's a perfectly feasible explanation given that she is rumoured to be the mother and known to have "links" to Ned anyway and she has Targesque colouring, as GRRM has reminded us. I like to think there is some reason for the Daynes (plotwise) to have Targ colouring despite their lack of Valyrian blood. In fact, if they wanted to keep their distinctive features, why didn't Targs marry Daynes?

[SerArthurHeath]

More accurately, if R+L=J is a bastard, then the KG being at the ToJ is an unexplained anomaly. Its still a possibility, but many people don't buy into the explanation that a dead ex-heir's instruction is so much more important than a live king that all three KG leave the child-king Viserys totally without protection in favour of staying at ToJ. I mean, surely they could have sent at least one of their number to Viserys and Dany...

But until he was legitimised, Viserys is king, as a surviving legitimate male of the line. And since Rhaegar predeceased Aerys, he never got to be king to have an opportunity to legitimize his son.

And the KG at the ToJ seemed to be fully aware of these events, probably informed through Starfall.

Therefore you claim that they are choosing to guard an illegitimate male of the line while leaving the legitimate King completely unguarded. At very least they should have sent one of their number to guard Viserys in such a case.

Sorry, doesn't wash.

Would they realistically be able to get to Viserys in time to achieve anything? Better to guard one Targ bastard with a chance of success whilst following orders than to go off with no chance of success to first find and then save a king literally thousands of miles away, possibly before they had heard any news of the Trident or KL or Dragonstone (the ToJ seems pretty remote) and possibly disobeying orders from Rhaegar

[Tave]

Based on the info we have right now, I'm of the belief that John is Rhaegar's. That said, I also wonder about Jon's appearance. One thing I don't think anyone has mentioned yet, and I apologize if they have, but House Velaryon is said to have traditional Valyrian features, and they retain those even though their blood has been diluted for centuries. Even the bastard Aurane Waters is said to look kind of like a poor-man's Rhaegar. It seems like Jon should have something of his father in him, even if it was just the eyes and not the hair, or vice versa.

I haven't read any of the companion pieces, though, and it sounds like there's a lot of genealogical information in them that would support Jon being Rhaegar's son and not looking like him, so I'll defer to y'alls knowledge. And of course, there are the examples in the Stark household itself of children looking nothing like one of their parents.

And maybe the decision about Jon's appearance was made for convenience sake or necessity. Not only would it be harder for Ned to hide his secret if Jon looked like Rhaegar, but also it would telegraph the secret to the reader. There would be no mystery to it.

FWIW, I came to the R+J=L conclusion before I started lurking around the message boards. I think it was right around when we started getting information about Rhaegar from characters besides Robert, maybe in one of the exchanges between Jorah and Dany. Then, all of the sudden everything clicked: Ned's flashbacks to the ToJ, his secrecy about the identity of Jon's mother, etc...

I think the textual support for Wylla or Ashara is pretty week, and any evidence we do have for them is consistent with Ned's coverup.

[the andorran]

I think you are reading more into it than is stated.

The extent to which the Targaryens could defy convention decreased markedly, yes. But while they had dragons they didn't just defy convention, they totally ignored or flouted it.

So going down to 'follow it unless I feel it really is necessary not to' is a marked decrease. That still leaves the 'power' to ignore convention, if the will to do so is strong though, it is just that unless the need is great, it isn't worth the effort.

Nothing in GRRMs statement says it would be very difficult or impossible. Only that it was not as easy as before, when they did it with total ease.

We are kind of quibbling over 'degree' here. But in context, its pretty important. I really can't see why Rhaegar could not choose polygamy should he decide it necessary. None of the laws have changed. None of the cultural mores have changed. The precedents exist. It is really a matter of will (and if anyone has the strength of will, and the love of the people, to be 'unconventional' like this its Rhaegar). Its just that the Targaryens have generally tried to 'fit in' more since they lost their dragons.

The less power that the Targaryens have to ignore convention, the less likely someone (supposedly) intelligent and thoughtful is to attempt to do it. At the very least, Rhaegar must have known that a second marriage would cause a succession dispute. To me, that, the fact that he didn't attempt to force a second marriage through "proper channels," and the decreased power to do so means that it's very unlikely Rhaegar and Lyanna were married.

No, that is not why the war started. The war started because the king executed some high nobles (not all of which were guilty, or even accused, of anything) and wanted to execute some more but those high nobles refused to 'come quietly', since they hadn't done anything wrong. Given no other choice, they chose rebellion.

Lyanna's abduction isn't even mentioned.

There is no certainty that the two events, Lyannas abduction and the rebellion were even linked in most peoples minds, being several months apart. It was Jon Arryn who first raised the banners of rebellion, not a Stark, and the Starks only one of 4 major families in the rebellion (and not the leading family either). And Rhaegar didn't even participate for teh first half of the war.

Uhh, by what logic did Rhaegar running off with Lyanna not cause the rebellion? The whole reason that Brandon Stark went all noble idiot and got himself arrested for treason. Certainly, Jon Arryn wouldn't have raised his banners if Aerys hadn't reacted the way that he did, but Lyanna was still the first domino to fall. It was the precipitating factor.

Assuming the septon was even told the status of the two lovers he married.

Yes, its possible that the septon knew everything. But it is just as likely, if not more likely, that he did not. Again, you are assuming the septon knows all the details we know, but a minor local septon generally knows little of the doings of high folk.

You are claiming that there is little chance there was a marriage (in other words, this is evidence to the contrary of a marriage) because the septon would have spilled the beans, but you have to make so many assumptions that are at best 50/50 calls just to get to that. That isn't good enough for 'contrary evidence'.

Is a marriage valid in Westeros if the septon performing the ceremony doesn't know the identities of the people he's marrying? I have no idea if there's anything in canon to indicate one way or another, but it seems unlikely. It certainly wouldn't be valid under the same circumstances in the real world. It's not an assumption that the septon who married them, whoever that may be, must have known who they were.

Beyond that, if it is, at best a 50/50 call (which I disagree with), then you're making an assumption in favor of R+L=J.

Not really.

Ned - well, he's so good at keeping secrets he even keeps them from those of us who get to look in his head.

Howland - he disappears back into his swamps and is never seen again.

Wylla - that is 1 definite person, but then, she's the wetnurse and cover mother, and it is the life of the babe she nursed on the line, so it is not exactly difficult for her to keep it secret, especially as she is on a fairly good gig and well looked after thereafter. Besides, while she knows of the birth for sure, that does not mean she knows of any marriage

The septon - possibly another, but he a) might not even know anything more than he married two young lovers and B) has nobody asking about the event, c)no knowledge of anyone to 'benefit' from him spilling the beans and d) could well be risking his life if he did spill the beans and Robert found out (if he knows enough to spill the beans then he probably knows enough to know that King Robert would not be happy with his actions at all).

The KG (at least those at the ToJ and maybe some who were with Rhaegar) - well, the likely candidates there are all dead, except Barristan. And the KG are very good at keeping secrets - the best there are. Barristan may not even know, but I doubt he'd have blabbed even if he did.

That is it. I guess it isn't so hard to keep a secret after all, especially when most of those who know of it are either dead or protecting one they love.

Ever heard the saying, "two can keep a secret if one of them is dead"? Keeping secrets is hard, particularly one of this great a significance. You of course have an answer for why all the people who must have known never would have told, which you seem pretty set on, and that's fine, so I'm not going to argue that with you on that.

However, I think that it's worth keeping in mind that the more people know about R+L=J, the less plausible it having been kept a secret becomes. That's just the way that the world works, it's the way that people work. Presuming R+L=J is true, keeping this secret is something that Ned struggled with, and he's by far the most honorable of the bunch, and the one with the most to lose by doing so.

I'm not saying that it's not possible. I'm saying the more people are included, the less plausible it becomes, to my eye, at least. But I think that we're probably just going to have to agree to disagree there.

* I'm not an expert on the timeline, but Rhaegar and Lyanna probably married very quickly after the abduction, if they married at all. Which means that there must be time for Brandon to ride from Riverrun to KL and then Rickard to travel from Winterfell to KL before the war even starts. Then around a year of war, and Ned doesn't go to the ToJ until well after he sack of KL - probably at least a month of strait travel time, and he was supposed to be cleaning up loyalist strongholds before he somehow found out about ToJ.

So it might easily be 15-18 months, give or take a few, between R+L wedding and Ned + Wylla + Jon turning up at Starfall.

Again, this is not all all 'gospel'. I just find your objections to be extraordinarily thin once examined.

The timeline is muddled and confused on several points, so I'm generally pretty reluctant to use it as evidence for or against anything. However, I would like to see someone work out a detailed, potential timeline of people's movements during the war. It's very hard to determine who was where and when, which obviously plays a big part in R+L=J. Even Jon's exact age is kind of iffy.

Well, that's entirely possible. :D

The thing is that most people who believe R+L=J know it is just a theory and not a proven fact. But it is literally so far ahead of every other possibility in terms of evidence, clues, and foreshadowing that it is easy to write it as though fact, especially when countering the generally inane objections that are so often, and repetitively, brought up to it.

Sadly, I don't think that anyone is going to convince anybody else of anything until we get confirmation of GRRM, and then some people are going to have to eat their words. Personally, the tendency of fans to treat R+L=J as fact is part of what raises my contrarian ire. I'm not talking about on threads like this. It's how jarring it is to be reading a thread ostensibly about another topic, and to see something along the lines of, "Because Lyanna is Jon's mother..." rather than "If Lyanna is Jon's mother." If that makes any sense.

Well, on that we can just disagree. I think the 3KG remaining at ToJ after they knew that Viserys was the true king is ... just wrong. I don't think 'Rhaegar said to' is anywhere near good enough. If Rhaegar is dead, and Aerys and Aegon and the rest, and the 4 other KG dead, turned (Jaime) or out of commission (Barristan) the true King Viserys is completely unprotected. I simply cannot see how the word of a dead ex-heir can keep all three at ToJ in that circumstance - unless its prophecy shit that Rhaegar has convinced them of and that is too Deus ex Machina of GRRM for me.

Therefore, Rhaegar and Lyanna must have married, making Lyanna's baby the true heir/king after the sack of KL and thus keeping the three KG at ToJ.

To me, Rhaegar and Lyanna being married does an okay job of explaining the KG at the TOJ, but it raises other questions. Namely,

1) Was the marriage valid and would it be recognized by anybody under the sun?

2) How many people really knew and have been keeping mum?

3) If Rhaegar wanted a legitimate heir to be his PWWP, why didn't he try to reinstate polygamy through more legitimate means rather than running off in the night with Lyanna or find a way to divorce Elia (a la the things that Henry VIII did to arrange his divorce from Catherine of Aragon)?

[Dragonfish]

The less power that the Targaryens have to ignore convention, the less likely someone (supposedly) intelligent and thoughtful is to attempt to do it. At the very least, Rhaegar must have known that a second marriage would cause a succession dispute. To me, that, the fact that he didn't attempt to force a second marriage through "proper channels," and the decreased power to do so means that it's very unlikely Rhaegar and Lyanna were married.

Rhaegar couldn't marry Lyanna through the proper channels because she was already betrothed. The only way I know of to get around that would be to 1) offer something to the family to get them to dissolve the betrothal, or 2) get the king to forcibly dissolve it. The first option is certainly possible, but unlikely if the rest of Ned's family was just as honorable and duty-bound as he was. The second option is also technically possible, but it depends on Aerys approving of Rhaegar's choice. Given that Aerys and Rhaegar had a strained relationship, and that Aerys was quite paranoid about the KotLT, who bore a weirwood sigil (weirdwoods, of course, being almost exclusively of the north), it is entirely possible that Aerys would never have consented to Rhaegar marrying a northern girl. Indeed, if Rhaegar even so much as asked Aerys to allow this, then he probably would have become paranoid that his son might be allying with his enemies in order to seize the throne. Given these conditions, it is entirely understandable that Rhaegar would have eloped with Lyanna rather than going through official channels. Granted, this argument requires a lot of speculation, but at the very least that speculation is not entirely groundless.

1) Was the marriage valid and would it be recognized by anybody under the sun?

Would anybody recognize it now? That's a hard question. At a minimum there would most likely have to be a Targ restoration for it to be recognized now.

Would anybody have recognized it then? Also somewhat difficult the answer. However, the more salient question to ask is: did Rhaegar think people would recognize it? In my opinion, he did. We know Rhaegar was the kind of person who, when he decided that something needed to be done, would just go out and do it, almost matter of factly. That's exactly how he became a warrior after reading something, most likely a prophecy; why couldn't he have married Lyanna for the same reason? If he believed he needed to marry her in order to fulfill some part of the prophecy, then most likely he'd just go ahead and do it. Furthermore, we know Rhaegar believed he had enough clout to peacefully depose Aerys once the war was over; who's to say he didn't believe he had enough clout to restore polygamy? After all, polygamy hadn't really been outlawed as far as we know, just fallen out of practice. So as far as Rhaegar was concerned, he would just be picking up a practice that was still technically legal, even if rarely used (similar to the "Trial of Seven" from "The Hedge Knight").

Besides, if he was willing to cause scandal by absconding with Lyanna in the first place, then I don't see why he'd be afraid of causing scandal by marrying her as well.

2) How many people really knew and have been keeping mum?

If there was only a septon involved, then he plus Rhaegar and Lyanna, plus the three Kingsguard (presumably), would make six. But only one of those people would be alive. Of course, as I said before, if there was some sort of northern gods ceremony, then maybe Rhaegar and Lyanna didn't require anyone to officiate at all. Baseless speculation, admittedly, but not impossible.

3) If Rhaegar wanted a legitimate heir to be his PWWP, why didn't he try to reinstate polygamy through more legitimate means rather than running off in the night with Lyanna or find a way to divorce Elia (a la the things that Henry VIII did to arrange his divorce from Catherine of Aragon)?

What does it mean to "reinstate polygamy through more legitimate means"? Had polygamy been outlawed, as far as we know? As I said above, I don't think so. I think it just fell out of practice. If so, then Rhaegar didn't technically have to reinstate polygamy at all; he could just revive it by marrying a second woman.

Divorcing Elia may also not have been an option, because he'd probably need the permission of his father to do that, and Aerys may not have been forthcoming if he believed that the purpose of the divorce was to free Rhaegar up for a marriage with a northern girl.

[SD Stark]

Well Jon going to the wall doesn't depend on him being a bastard (which I think he would still be if R+L=J) but him thinking he is and I'd argue that would be even more powerful if he were wrong. A key theme in ASoIaF is people making decisions based on false information

It could be. Here's another issue I've had with the theory about Jon's birth. Too many people (this may not apply to you) use that information to try to predict where the story is going to go, and in my opinion, that is one of the primary reasons that the theory is defended so staunchly. If the theory isn't true, than people won't get the story they want. For the sake of objectivity, I believe this sentiment goes both ways. However, none of us know where the story is going, except that the ending is going to be bittersweet. In fact, I'm sure Martin still has some shocking moments in store for us.

In my opinion, Martin wrote Jon as Ned's bastard son so that he would wind up on the Wall. It's also my opinion that Lyanna loved Rhaegar, and possibly vice versa. I think there's plenty of book evidence to support that, and that Ned is fully aware of his sister's feelings. From here it's easy to postulate that there was a child between them, but evidence of a secret love is not evidence of a love child. Besides, we are given glimpses of another possible secret love, so now there's another possible love child.

I've read some posts that refer to Ashara as part of the cover up. I'd just like to point out that she may be a red herring put in by George RR Martin, but she is not a cover-up. Ned refuses to ever speak about her, and we only hear about her from outside observers. She is still largely a mystery to us, and until we get some concrete information about her, we can't entirely rule her out. To be honest, until we find out more about Wylla, we can't truly rule her out, either. However, I believe Wylla is the cover up and Lyanna or Ashara are the two viable options. I have more opinions regarding Wylla, but it's best I wait to reveal those thoughts.

[the andorran]

Dragonfish, those are all decent-ish explanations based on pure speculation, but it is a lot more speculation than assuming R+L=Bastard J requires. Which is why I am disinclined to believe it, even if I accept R+L=J. The more maybes and ifs are required, the less it starts to seem plausible. Possible, yes, but not plausible.

For me, it doesn't really hold water that Rhaegar, if what we've told about him is true, wouldn't have tried to do things with Lyanna legitimately. There were problems, yes, but ones that were more easily overcome by doing things in public than in secret.

Recall that Rhaegar seems to have believed he could dispose of his father in a peaceful coup. If marrying Lyanna and making the PWWP was such a priority for Rhaegar, why not dispose of his dad first, get his butt on the throne, and make things happen? When the king comes calling and asks you to dissolve a bethrothal, you go along with it. If the king wants a divorce, he has ways of getting it.

Besides, if he was willing to cause scandal by absconding with Lyanna in the first place, then I don't see why he'd be afraid of causing scandal by marrying her as well.

If he was willing to cause scandal by absconding with Lyanna in the manner we know he did, I don't see why he'd be afraid of causing scandal by trying to marry her in view of the court through whatever channels are necessary.

Then again, to me, Rhaegar was a big idiot whether he married Lyanna in secret or not. Whether or not he did just begs the question of how big an idiot.

[the andorran]

It could be. Here's another issue I've had with the theory about Jon's birth. Too many people (this may not apply to you) use that information to try to predict where the story is going to go, and in my opinion, that is one of the primary reasons that the theory is defended so staunchly. If the theory isn't true, than people won't get the story they want. For the sake of objectivity, I believe this sentiment goes both ways. However, none of us know where the story is going, except that the ending is going to be bittersweet. In fact, I'm sure Martin still has some shocking moments in store for us.

In my opinion, Martin wrote Jon as Ned's bastard son so that he would wind up on the Wall. It's also my opinion that Lyanna loved Rhaegar, and possibly vice versa. I think there's plenty of book evidence to support that, and that Ned is fully aware of his sister's feelings. From here it's easy to postulate that there was a child between them, but evidence of a secret love is not evidence of a love child. Besides, we are given glimpses of another possible secret love, so now there's another possible love child.

I've read some posts that refer to Ashara as part of the cover up. I'd just like to point out that she may be a red herring put in by George RR Martin, but she is not a cover-up. Ned refuses to ever speak about her, and we only hear about her from outside observers. She is still largely a mystery to us, and until we get some concrete information about her, we can't entirely rule her out. To be honest, until we find out more about Wylla, we can't truly rule her out, either. However, I believe Wylla is the cover up and Lyanna or Ashara are the two viable options. I have more opinions regarding Wylla, but it's best I wait to reveal those thoughts.

Are we the same person? Because it's like you plucked my thoughts out of my head. :P

[Joy Lannister]

Rhaegar couldn't marry Lyanna through the proper channels because she was already betrothed.

Westerosi customs aren't exactly clear about this yet.

Robb was also already betrothed, but he married Jeyne just fine, while Joffrey had Sansa first give him her blessing before getting betrothed to Margaery. Robb clearly defied the traditions, because he broke his word, but no one has ever said that his marriage to Jeyne is not valid because he was previously betrothed to a Frey. And in Joffrey's case, it looked more like a matter of fallowing the proper etiquette than anything else.

In both cases, there was noting religious involved in breaking off the betrothals, so I don't think that betrothals in Westeros work the same way they did in the middle ages. I think it's customary for a lord and a lady to "keep their word", but if they don't, their marriages are not considered invalid.

[Ame]

Dragonfish, those are all decent-ish explanations based on pure speculation, but it is a lot more speculation than assuming R+L=Bastard J requires. Which is why I am disinclined to believe it, even if I accept R+L=J. The more maybes and ifs are required, the less it starts to seem plausible. Possible, yes, but not plausible.

For me, it doesn't really hold water that Rhaegar, if what we've told about him is true, wouldn't have tried to do things with Lyanna legitimately. There were problems, yes, but ones that were more easily overcome by doing things in public than in secret.

Recall that Rhaegar seems to have believed he could dispose of his father in a peaceful coup. If marrying Lyanna and making the PWWP was such a priority for Rhaegar, why not dispose of his dad first, get his butt on the throne, and make things happen? When the king comes calling and asks you to dissolve a bethrothal, you go along with it. If the king wants a divorce, he has ways of getting it.

If he was willing to cause scandal by absconding with Lyanna in the manner we know he did, I don't see why he'd be afraid of causing scandal by trying to marry her in view of the court through whatever channels are necessary.

Then again, to me, Rhaegar was a big idiot whether he married Lyanna in secret or not. Whether or not he did just begs the question of how big an idiot.

Well his father didn't know where he was; perhaps that is the reason he chose to Elope instead of going to court. He knew his father wouldn't agree to it and just wasn't ready emotionally or in terms of organized support for a coup so they eloped in secret.

[Dragonfish]

In my opinion, Martin wrote Jon as Ned's bastard son so that he would wind up on the Wall. It's also my opinion that Lyanna loved Rhaegar, and possibly vice versa. I think there's plenty of book evidence to support that, and that Ned is fully aware of his sister's feelings. From here it's easy to postulate that there was a child between them, but evidence of a secret love is not evidence of a love child. Besides, we are given glimpses of another possible secret love, so now there's another possible love child.

Yes, but we know that one of those "secret love" couples was alone for a good while in an isolated location that not even Varys knew about, and that the female half of this couple was found by Ned about a year later in this same isolated location, eventually dying under mysterious circumstances. In contrast, the other "secret love" couple were on opposite sides of a conflict, and the male half of the couple was married and honorable to a fault, making adultery less likely. Furthermore, we have no indication that this second "secret love" couple ever met during the course of the war. Given these facts, it's not hard to see why people think the first "secret love" couple were more likely to have had a love child.

[Dragonfish]

Dragonfish, those are all decent-ish explanations based on pure speculation, but it is a lot more speculation than assuming R+L=Bastard J requires. Which is why I am disinclined to believe it, even if I accept R+L=J. The more maybes and ifs are required, the less it starts to seem plausible. Possible, yes, but not plausible.

This is fair. I'm rather ambivalent about the "Rhaegar married Lyanna theory" myself. I just think it's a possibility.

Recall that Rhaegar seems to have believed he could dispose of his father in a peaceful coup. If marrying Lyanna and making the PWWP was such a priority for Rhaegar, why not dispose of his dad first, get his butt on the throne, and make things happen? When the king comes calling and asks you to dissolve a bethrothal, you go along with it. If the king wants a divorce, he has ways of getting it.

I would argue that deposing his father would have been a more momentous thing to do than, say, restoring polygamy. The latter is at least still legal, even if it hasn't been practiced in quite a while. The former, though, has no precedent, as far as I'm aware. It wasn't until Aerys' actions during the war that Rhaegar became convinced that his father needed to be deposed

If he was willing to cause scandal by absconding with Lyanna in the manner we know he did, I don't see why he'd be afraid of causing scandal by trying to marry her in view of the court through whatever channels are necessary.

Again, my explanation presupposes that Aerys was paranoid about northerners, and that Rhaegar would not have wanted to bring Lyanna to court as a result. In other words, Rhaegar and Lyanna absconded to a secret location because they were hiding from both their families.

[Dragonfish]

Westerosi customs aren't exactly clear about this yet.

Robb was also already betrothed, but he married Jeyne just fine, while Joffrey had Sansa first give him her blessing before getting betrothed to Margaery. Robb clearly defied the traditions, because he broke his word, but no one has ever said that his marriage to Jeyne is not valid because he was previously betrothed to a Frey. And in Joffrey's case, it looked more like a matter of fallowing the proper etiquette than anything else.

In both cases, there was noting religious involved in breaking off the betrothals, so I don't think that betrothals in Westeros work the same way they did in the middle ages. I think it's customary for a lord and a lady to "keep their word", but if they don't, their marriages are not considered invalid.

Ok, but I'm not saying that Lyanna was irrevocably bound to Robert or anything. I'm just saying that, in order for Rhaegar to go through the "official channels", the betrothal would have to be dissolved somehow, either through the consent of the family or through an act of the king.

[the andorran]

I would argue that deposing his father would have been a more momentous thing to do than, say, restoring polygamy. The latter is at least still legal, even if it hasn't been practiced in quite a while. The former, though, has no precedent, as far as I'm aware. It wasn't until Aerys' actions during the war that Rhaegar became convinced that his father needed to be deposed.

Okay, that's a good point. Though (this has nothing to do with R+L=J) I have often wondered why Rhaegar didn't attempt to establish some kind of regency for his father when he just wasn't capable of ruling.

Again, my explanation presupposes that Aerys was paranoid about northerners, and that Rhaegar would not have wanted to bring Lyanna to court as a result. In other words, Rhaegar and Lyanna absconded to a secret location because they were hiding from both their families.

I can concede the point about Aerys posing a potential problem they just wanted to avoid, but I think you overstate a bit how upset the Starks would have been (or would have felt they had the right to have been). I just wonder, why not try to real with Aerys? Was it really that desperate?

I admit that I'm predisposed to not be satisfied with any (well, most, I just conceded you had a point) answers to my questions, just as R+L=J believers are predisposed to speculate an answer to non-believers' questions. I think that we're fortunate that we have such a compelling mystery and theory, so that people are still talking about it. A lot. And that it's still not resolved really does, imho, show that there's room for interpretation and ambiguity.