[ADwD Spoilers] A Different Look at Jon's Decision

[GOTW]

I've been thinking about Jon's decision in his last chapter for a while now and, at first, I was somewhat confused by it. Jon struggling to keep his vows has been a theme GRRM has built up since the first book and Jon's decision seemed to tear down all that had been built up before. Anyways, this being GRRM, I thought that maybe an outside-the-box look at his decision was warranted:

So, to start off, alot of my speculation is based of the mysterious "2 hour" talk Jon has with Tormund after his decision to change plans. All we really know of this plan is that 1.)Tormund would lead the ranging to Hardhome and 2.) Jon would go South to find Ramsay Bolton after rousing the wildlings to his cause. Now, Jon could just be telling Tormund the specifics of this plan during these two hours, but that doesn't seem like much to talk about, especially if time was of the essence. It makes me think there was more to this plan we never heard, things that would reveal a much greater purpose to this plan than just saving "Arya" from Ramsay. Two things that lead me to this conclusion:

A.) The lead-in paragraph to Jon's decision. I know some people were critical of this paragraph because instead of giving us a clear thought process to Jon's decision it simply repeated lines we've read before (like "the watch takes no part, etc."). At first glance this criticism seems justified. Jon's decision to deny Stannis' offer back in aSoS was a very long process, and we saw Jon's reasoning and it made sense to us. In Dance, however, there was only a short, repetitive paragraph. I believe that this was intentional on GRRM's part and that this paragraph is, in a sense, a red herring to make us believe Jon decided to abandon his vows just to save his sister. Essentially, I believe Jon made a decision to deal with Ramsay that would eventually come to benefit the defense of the Wall and save his sister if possible. The specifics of this plan I can only speculate about and I'll come back to it later.

B.) Tormund Giantsbane. Part of me believes that it would be in Tormund's character to encourage Jon to abandon his post and ride South to shut up Ramsay as a matter of "pride." The other part of me, however, believes Tormund is smarter than that. Now we know that Tormund, like Jon, is a pragmatic leader who will do what is necessary to save his people and defend them from the Others. He essentially surrenders to Jon to get behind the Wall and is seemingly willing to go beyond it yet again to save the people at Hardhome. Being a wildling, Tormund knows better than anyone that the Others are coming, defenses must be built, and that there is little time to spare. Now, would this Tormund, wildling, enemy of the Others, protector of his people, really agree with Jon, the LC of the NW, riding South just to deal with personal matters? I don't really think so, which again leads me to believe that Jon's plan would have to be in-line with somehow strengthening the defenses at the Wall.

Speculation of Jon's "true" plan:

Basically, I think Jon decided to kill 4 birds with one stone. Of the two things we already know of his plan, Jon riding South and Tormund going to Hardhome, Tormund's part is more obvious. Jon must know that the wildings at Hardhome would not be that accepting of a rescue party of NW men led by the LC of the NW, no matter how desperate they were. The people there were part of Mance's host beaten at the Wall and most of them probably trust the NW just as they trust the Others (meaning none!). Tormund Giantsbane, however, is a much better envoy to rescue these people. He is a leader, he is well-known, he knows the landscape (and can probably get to Hardhome faster), and above all he is a wildling. This is the first "bird."

Jon going South is much harder to figure out, but I think its much more than just saving his sister. We've been reminded in Dance of Stannis' offer to make Jon the Lord of Winterfell to unite to North back in aSoS a few times. Jon, of course, refused this and left Stannis to conquer the North without a Stark. We must be reminded however that Stannis' desire to unite the North is not just a matter of fealty, but to bolster the North and prepare it for the invasion of the Others. Stannis knows (through Mel) the true threat the Others pose to the realm and that a disunited North would do much to enlarge that threat. So, when Jon reads Ramsay's letter he is given reason to think that Stannis is in trouble (and may even well be defeated).

Well, some might argue that it does not matter who controls the North as long as it is united. A Bolton controlled North could help the Watch as well if they were made to see the threat of the Others. Bolton's letter, however, shows Jon that the Watch will find no friend with the Boltons. Jon realizes that, although he tried to avoid directly helping Stannis in the game of thrones, he had already thrown his lot in with Stannis the moment his men beat back Mance's host. So, essentially, the fate of the Watch is tied to Stannis. Jon thinks back on his vows and realizes that his vow to protect the realm supersedes all his other vows, including his duty to take no part in the wars of the realm (hence why he is thinking "the watch takes no part" repeatedly the moment he makes his decision). He knows Stannis is in trouble so he decides to go South and help Stannis unite the North. How, you might ask? I believe that Jon intended to take Stannis up on his old offer to make him Lord of Winterfell and a Stark. Jon would try to unite the North through his lineage, just as Stannis tried to do before. So the 2nd Bird is saving Stannis, the 3rd is saving his sister, and the 4th is bolstering the defence of the Wall with a united North.

Great plan right? If only Bowen Marsh had 2 hours to spare...

[dreamcatcher]

Good reasoning. Too bad none of it matters now and all hell is about to break loose.

But why then did Jon think to himself

'I have my swords, and we are coming for you, Bastard. ',

if none of it has anything to do with Ramsay?

Also, why does he think

'I should have gone to Selyse first. She has the right to know her lord is dead.

if he doesn't believe that Stannis is dead? That's his thoughts, he has no reason to lie in his thoughts, lol.

[GOTW]

Good reasoning. Too bad none of it matters now and all hell is about to break loose.

But why then did Jon think to himself

'I have my swords, and we are coming for you, Bastard. ',

if none of it has anything to do with Ramsay?

Also, why does he think

'I should have gone to Selyse first. She has the right to know her lord is dead.

if he doesn't believe that Stannis is dead? That's his thoughts, he has no reason to lie in his thoughts, lol.

Good points there. For the first one, possibly because Ramsay is the Lord of Winterfell and Jon saw defeating him as a symbolic and political move to spread the word about a new "Stark" in the North.

Second point; Honestly forgot about that, but Jon actually thinking Stannis was dead (which is a rash decision in itself) would have spurred him even more to defying "the watch takes no part." In the vien of "Stannis is dead, the Boltons are my enemies, so now I am the last hope to uniting the North under one banner." That, or Jon believed "betraying" the Watch would dissociate himself from the NW and would turn the Bolton's wrath away from them. Essentially sacrificing himself for the Watch now that he believes Stannis is gone. Totally different theory there that I I've seen others mention.

[Guest]

[i posted this in another thread but your post seems like a great fit for it]

We definitely know Jon was seeking Ramsay; he thinks Mel can help locate him.

One possibility I've been rolling around that relates to your "4 birds, 1 stone" theory: He wants to take Ramsay hostage to get Bolton to send him more men to join the Night's Watch, thus clearing the way for Stannis (or Sansa), rescuing Mance, and avenging Arya--all while simultaneously serving the Realm. He sees the letter as a gift to finally do everything he wants.

Either way, a united North, whether united by Stannis or Jon, would really help survive the Long Night. Westeros needs to act as one. Of course it won't, but maybe Jon recognizes this.

[undertow]

I agree. For the most part, Jon's plan makes perfect strategic sense. His problem was that he assumed the loyalty of the Night's Watch to the Lord Commander and didn't make much of an attempt to justify his actions to his subordinates. I'm on Jon's side in this whole debacle, but I can understand why Marsh, etc., would want to take him out of the picture. However, when Jon has several thousand allies who've pledged to him, such a blatant assassination is stupid. Marsh and Co. have potentially destroyed the Night's Watch, not Jon.

[undertow]

One possibility I've been rolling around that relates to your "4 birds, 1 stone" theory: He wants to take Ramsay hostage to get Bolton to send him more men to join the Night's Watch, thus clearing the way for Stannis (or Sansa), rescuing Mance, and avenging Arya--all while simultaneously serving the Realm. He sees the letter as a gift to finally do everything he wants.

Either way, a united North, whether united by Stannis or Jon, would really help survive the Long Night. Westeros needs to act as one. Of course it won't, but maybe Jon recognizes this.

I doubt that he wants to take Ramsay hostage. I think that he primarily sees threat to the wall, and if that results in the rescue of Mance and "Arya," well, that's awesome. I don't see any way for Jon to achieve what he wants to without the death of Ramsay and the decimation (not necessarily destruction) of the Bolton forces. Removing the threat would result in the rescue of Arya and Mance, so, in his mind, it's all kosher with his vows, even if it also achieves non-NW ends.

[Black Crow]

...a lot of my speculation is based of the mysterious "2 hour" talk Jon has with Tormund after his decision to change plans... Jon could just be telling Tormund the specifics of this plan during these two hours, but that doesn't seem like much to talk about, especially if time was of the essence.

I take it then that you've never had to plan a military operation? :rolleyes:

This argument has been bouncing around the forum for a while and I'm not saying that there may not be something else going on which we won't know about for another few years, but believe me... two hours to plan two separate military operations on that scale is at the hasty end of the scale.

[tyrions sliced nose]

So with jon dead his vows to the NW are gone as well i would assume.

Hes obviously not dead and can do whatever the hell he wants now, which is to kill the bastard ramsey :fencing: once he comes back to life

then take a dragon and fly into the comet, get lightbringer from its depths and fly back into the depths of the wights and destroy them all.

Its so simple

[undertow]

I take it then that you've never had to plan a military operation? :rolleyes:

This argument has been bouncing around the forum for a while and I'm not saying that there may not be something else going on which we won't know about for another few years, but believe me... two hours to plan two separate military operations on that scale is at the hasty end of the scale.

To my recollection, Tormund simply took command of the expedition in place of Jon, adding some of his own men and using the same plan. As for the venture South, I don't think that it had been planned yet. Tormund simply presumably said to Jon that if he wanted Wildling swords, he would get them. Planning generally comes after you know what resources are available, or so I am told.

[GOTW]

I take it then that you've never had to plan a military operation? :rolleyes:

This argument has been bouncing around the forum for a while and I'm not saying that there may not be something else going on which we won't know about for another few years, but believe me... two hours to plan two separate military operations on that scale is at the hasty end of the scale.

Yeah, that part of my speculation is sorta weak. The point I should have tried to make was not the time period of 2 hours itself being too long, but the simple fact that that sentence exists in the text and provokes some mystery. That, and the fact that we never really see Jon think over his plan in his head beside a few select thoughts ("I'm coming for you Bolton, etc."). The overall sense I get from the chapter (and I admit I am probably biased) is that we don't know every aspect of his plan. Of course, could all be reading too much into it.

[Sword of the North]

I've been thinking about Jon's decision in his last chapter for a while now and, at first, I was somewhat confused by it. Jon struggling to keep his vows has been a theme GRRM has built up since the first book and Jon's decision seemed to tear down all that had been built up before. Anyways, this being GRRM, I thought that maybe an outside-the-box look at his decision was warranted:

So, to start off, alot of my speculation is based of the mysterious "2 hour" talk Jon has with Tormund after his decision to change plans. All we really know of this plan is that 1.)Tormund would lead the ranging to Hardhome and 2.) Jon would go South to find Ramsay Bolton after rousing the wildlings to his cause. Now, Jon could just be telling Tormund the specifics of this plan during these two hours, but that doesn't seem like much to talk about, especially if time was of the essence. It makes me think there was more to this plan we never heard, things that would reveal a much greater purpose to this plan than just saving "Arya" from Ramsay. Two things that lead me to this conclusion:

A.) The lead-in paragraph to Jon's decision. I know some people were critical of this paragraph because instead of giving us a clear thought process to Jon's decision it simply repeated lines we've read before (like "the watch takes no part, etc."). At first glance this criticism seems justified. Jon's decision to deny Stannis' offer back in aSoS was a very long process, and we saw Jon's reasoning and it made sense to us. In Dance, however, there was only a short, repetitive paragraph. I believe that this was intentional on GRRM's part and that this paragraph is, in a sense, a red herring to make us believe Jon decided to abandon his vows just to save his sister. Essentially, I believe Jon made a decision to deal with Ramsay that would eventually come to benefit the defense of the Wall and save his sister if possible. The specifics of this plan I can only speculate about and I'll come back to it later.

B.) Tormund Giantsbane. Part of me believes that it would be in Tormund's character to encourage Jon to abandon his post and ride South to shut up Ramsay as a matter of "pride." The other part of me, however, believes Tormund is smarter than that. Now we know that Tormund, like Jon, is a pragmatic leader who will do what is necessary to save his people and defend them from the Others. He essentially surrenders to Jon to get behind the Wall and is seemingly willing to go beyond it yet again to save the people at Hardhome. Being a wildling, Tormund knows better than anyone that the Others are coming, defenses must be built, and that there is little time to spare. Now, would this Tormund, wildling, enemy of the Others, protector of his people, really agree with Jon, the LC of the NW, riding South just to deal with personal matters? I don't really think so, which again leads me to believe that Jon's plan would have to be in-line with somehow strengthening the defenses at the Wall.

Speculation of Jon's "true" plan:

Basically, I think Jon decided to kill 4 birds with one stone. Of the two things we already know of his plan, Jon riding South and Tormund going to Hardhome, Tormund's part is more obvious. Jon must know that the wildings at Hardhome would not be that accepting of a rescue party of NW men led by the LC of the NW, no matter how desperate they were. The people there were part of Mance's host beaten at the Wall and most of them probably trust the NW just as they trust the Others (meaning none!). Tormund Giantsbane, however, is a much better envoy to rescue these people. He is a leader, he is well-known, he knows the landscape (and can probably get to Hardhome faster), and above all he is a wildling. This is the first "bird."

Jon going South is much harder to figure out, but I think its much more than just saving his sister. We've been reminded in Dance of Stannis' offer to make Jon the Lord of Winterfell to unite to North back in aSoS a few times. Jon, of course, refused this and left Stannis to conquer the North without a Stark. We must be reminded however that Stannis' desire to unite the North is not just a matter of fealty, but to bolster the North and prepare it for the invasion of the Others. Stannis knows (through Mel) the true threat the Others pose to the realm and that a disunited North would do much to enlarge that threat. So, when Jon reads Ramsay's letter he is given reason to think that Stannis is in trouble (and may even well be defeated).

Well, some might argue that it does not matter who controls the North as long as it is united. A Bolton controlled North could help the Watch as well if they were made to see the threat of the Others. Bolton's letter, however, shows Jon that the Watch will find no friend with the Boltons. Jon realizes that, although he tried to avoid directly helping Stannis in the game of thrones, he had already thrown his lot in with Stannis the moment his men beat back Mance's host. So, essentially, the fate of the Watch is tied to Stannis. Jon thinks back on his vows and realizes that his vow to protect the realm supersedes all his other vows, including his duty to take no part in the wars of the realm (hence why he is thinking "the watch takes no part" repeatedly the moment he makes his decision). He knows Stannis is in trouble so he decides to go South and help Stannis unite the North. How, you might ask? I believe that Jon intended to take Stannis up on his old offer to make him Lord of Winterfell and a Stark. Jon would try to unite the North through his lineage, just as Stannis tried to do before. So the 2nd Bird is saving Stannis, the 3rd is saving his sister, and the 4th is bolstering the defence of the Wall with a united North.

Great plan right? If only Bowen Marsh had 2 hours to spare...

Did Jon ever try and tell anyone but Tormund his plan? I don't think so.

While i like the theory, it'd be even better, if a certain Mormont and Glover show up in the North with a certain letter from a certain king...

[GOTW]

So with jon dead his vows to the NW are gone as well i would assume.

Hes obviously not dead and can do whatever the hell he wants now, which is to kill the bastard ramsey :fencing: once he comes back to life

then take a dragon and fly into the comet, get lightbringer from its depths and fly back into the depths of the wights and destroy them all.

Its so simple

I may be wrong, but I sense some sarcasm in this post. ;) I know my post makes Jon sound like some master strategist wannabe, but the simple fact that he failed to even implement it shows he's not.

Seriously though, I am not of the "Jon is free of his vows or should be free of his vows" camp. I'm more in the "Jon realizes some of his vows are more important than others and, acting like the pragmatic leader he has in the entire book (aiding Stannis, allying with the wildlings, etc.) he decides to join the game of thrones for the realm" camp. So unlike Bowen ("For the watch") who only thinks in terms of what will benefit the traditions of NW, Jon decides to think in broader terms. Hard to explain, but its akin to building a theory off a theme instead of only facts.

[tyrions sliced nose]

I may be wrong, but I sense some sarcasm in this post. ;) I know my plan makes Jon sound like some master strategist wannabe, but the simple fact that he failed to even implement it shows he's not.

Seriously though, I am not of the "Jon is free of his vows or should be free of his vows" camp. I'm more in the "Jon realizes some of his vows are more important than others and, acting like the pragmatic leader he has in the entire book (aiding Stannis, allying with the wildlings, etc.) he decides to join the game of thrones for the realm" camp. So unlike Bowen ("For the watch") who only thinks in terms of what will benefit the traditions of NW, Jon decides to think in broader terms. Hard to explain, but its akin to building a theory off a theme instead of only facts.

Well it was a bit sarcastic but it wasnt meant for any slight on your OP.

I like what you think is going on with jon and it does make sense for sure.

Personally i think GRRM should be put in a dungeon forced to finish the series so i actually know what the hell is going to happen next and swifly.har

[tozka]

I really loved that passage when Jon is thinking and deciding what course of actions to take. I'll even quote it now because it's nice.

Jon flexed the fingers of his sword hand. The Night’s Watch takes no part. He closed his fist and opened it again. What you propose is nothing less than treason. He thought of Robb, with snowflakes melting in his hair. Kill the boy and let the man be born. He thought of Bran, clambering up a tower wall, agile as a monkey. Of Rickon’s breathless laughter. Of Sansa, brushing out Lady’s coat and singing to herself. You know nothing, Jon Snow. He thought of Arya, her hair as tangled as a bird’s nest. I made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell … I want my bride back … I want my bride back … I want my bride back …

It's awesome quote. It's poetic and beautiful, all the references to his siblings, to Ygrite, to his vows , to everything that is most important to him.

And it is indeed quite vague as to explain us Jon's motivation and the next bit - "They talked for the best part of two hours." is even more vague to explain what his plans are. I personally believe that Jon is not technically breaking his oaths and he is riding out because he understands this is the best for the Watch. And I think that he would have taken the same decision if Arya is not involved but I am far from certain and it's only speculation - probably even GRRM does not know what Jon would have done under different circumstances.

But , there is always 'but' don't you know it, but if you look at his thought process - in the end he finishes with - I want my bride back … I want my bride back … I want my bride back … It is Arya who clinches it at the end. Jon has always struggled with his own vows - it has been recurring theme from the start of the series - escaping in the first book, going over to the wildlings and Ygritte in the next two. I love that Jon is not trying to justifies his decision. There is nice parallel with Barristan who also threads on the verge of breaking his vows when he moves against Hizdahr but he needs to because his own honor would not allow him otherwise. Jon though has learned a valuable lesson since joining to Watch - remember what Halfhand told him - "Our honor means no more than our lives, so long as the realm is safe" He realizes that it is necessary thing to be done - for the Watch, for Arya - and he does not try to excuse himself.

[GOTW]

I really loved that passage when Jon is thinking and deciding what course of actions to take. I'll even quote it now because it's nice.

It's awesome quote. It's poetic and beautiful, all the references to his siblings, to Ygrite, to his vows , to everything that is most important to him.

And it is indeed quite vague as to explain us Jon's motivation and the next bit - "They talked for the best part of two hours." is even more vague to explain what his plans are. I personally believe that Jon is not technically breaking his oaths and he is riding out because he understands this is the best for the Watch. And I think that he would have taken the same decision if Arya is not involved but I am far from certain and it's only speculation - probably even GRRM does not know what Jon would have done under different circumstances.

But , there is always 'but' don't you know it, but if you look at his thought process - in the end he finishes with - I want my bride back … I want my bride back … I want my bride back … It is Arya who clinches it at the end. Jon has always struggled with his own vows - it has been recurring theme from the start of the series - escaping in the first book, going over to the wildlings and Ygritte in the next two. I love that Jon is not trying to justifies his decision. There is nice parallel with Barristan who also threads on the verge of breaking his vows when he moves against Hizdahr but he needs to because his own honor would not allow him otherwise. Jon though has learned a valuable lesson since joining to Watch - remember what Halfhand told him - "Our honor means no more than our lives, so long as the realm is safe" He realizes that it is necessary thing to be done - for the Watch, for Arya - and he does not try to excuse himself.

I really, really, really love this post. I agree that it is very hard to wrap your head around "Arya's" influence on Jon's decision if you believe he made his decision for the betterment of the Watch. Some may argue that GRRM made Jon's decision too easy by being able to help the realm and save his sister in one stroke. I agree that Arya's involvement was definitely the spark of Jon's decision and that he doesn't try to hide it from himself. I like to think it was more-so a spark to get him to realize his ultimate vow to protect the realm, not a spark to get him to make a rash decision that he tries to conform to his vows.

[undertow]

But , there is always 'but' don't you know it, but if you look at his thought process - in the end he finishes with - I want my bride back … I want my bride back … I want my bride back … It is Arya who clinches it at the end. Jon has always struggled with his own vows - it has been recurring theme from the start of the series - escaping in the first book, going over to the wildlings and Ygritte in the next two. I love that Jon is not trying to justifies his decision. There is nice parallel with Barristan who also threads on the verge of breaking his vows when he moves against Hizdahr but he needs to because his own honor would not allow him otherwise. Jon though has learned a valuable lesson since joining to Watch - remember what Halfhand told him - "Our honor means no more than our lives, so long as the realm is safe" He realizes that it is necessary thing to be done - for the Watch, for Arya - and he does not try to excuse himself.

I think you understand Jon's subconscious quite well, but I think my previous post still stands. Jon consciously does what the NW needs. Subconsciously, he wants to rescue Arya, and I think his guilt over Ygritte weighs heavily in that decision.

Edit: In hindsight, I guess I just repeated what GOTW said. I feel shame, but I will not delete.

[Errant Bard]

The problem is the "saving" part.

He knows "Arya" escaped, yet he thinks "Bastard, I'm coming for you". He knows (or thinks) that the Boltons have an army good enough to destroy Stannis, and for all he knows, the whole North behind them, yet he thinks "I have my swords, yaddayadda". He knows Ramsay is not the honourable sort (he had the rumours of Lady Hornwood way back, and now this letter, the flayings...) Yet he thinks about something like single combat? There is no "saving" there.

It's just a bad chapter altogether. Had to happen, but makes no internal sense... Unless his ultimate goal is to suicide, make everything he ever did with wildlings to man the Wall irrelevant as he sets the whole North against them by leading their southern invasion, and discredit the Watch so they don't have a single powerful friend able to help them, after Stannis, but instead the Warden of the North most likely more intent on destroying the Watch. Well done.

[GOTW]

^I agree that Jon getting killed had to happen, but the way it happened could have been totally different. We've seen tensions between the Wildlings and the NW and the Queen's men before, why not have some new crisis surrounding the wildlings that forces Jon to make a decision that leads to his murder? Why not have Wun Wun kill Ser Patrek before this whole business with the letter and have Jon killed by vengeful Queen's men? Or some other slight against NW tradition that is the final straw for Marsh and his men? Instead we get a random letter from Ramsay talking about events we thought we would see first-hand. Martin wanted us to see Jon make this decision, even at the expense of an awkward setup. So that in itself must have some purpose beyond just leading to his death.

[JayDubya]

Personally, I suspect (perhaps hope) that Jon's conversation with Tormund is the key that will explain this - there's something going on here that Jon knows, but isn't thinking about, so we aren't privy to it.

[Pipsmom]

Jon's motives can be inferred from what we know of his character. Jon has always taken everything at face value initially, although he is very receptive when presented with a less superficial interpretation.

He took his assignment as Mormont's steward at face value, it was up to Sam to explain the LC's obvious intent.

The Wildings had become the NW's strawman, after thousands of years with no trace of the threat they were originally established to fight against. It seems most of the Brothers believed the Others to just be an ancient myth, used to frighten children. Jon accepted this perversion of the NW mission at face value until his time with the wildings opened his eyes to the very real threat approaching.

Jon now believes the Wildings are critical allies in fulfilling the true purpose of the NW, their existential battle against the Darkness.

There is no reason to believe Jon would take Ramsay's letter at anything more than face value, based on what we know of his character. He believes Stannis is dead and "Arya" has escaped. His only plausible reason to march on Winterfell is to rescue Mance Raydar, the King of the Wildings, his primary allies in the battle to come.

Jon's main failing is his inability to effectively communicate his vision to the men of the NW. They are holding fast to their strawman. In fact, Jon is the only member of the NW that is staying true to the vows as they were originally written.

I can't speculate on what Jon's future will be now, but his character development has followed a consistent path of expanded enlightenment and whatever Martin has in store for him will no doubt move him along his path to the role he will play in the final battle.