[ADWD Spoilers] New info on the North's military strength

[jarl the climber]

The greyjoy decision to attack the north looks worse and worse, if the north could raise so many wouldnt moat cotllin (i dont know the spelling) be extremely vulnerable if even only manderly mustered it would fall if he hit it from the north

Manderly was fighting with Bolton over the Hornwood lands. He also had to worry about the Redwyne fleet and possibly Stannis if he had won. The reason that was given for building ships with the Umbers was to prevent raiding by the Wildlings. Perhaps they are more concerned about the wall as wall than we have been led to beleive. Everything changes when the Greyjoys invade the Reach and Stannis captures Deepwood Motte, Manderly no longer has to worry about Redwynes fleet and Bolton has credible forces opposing him to his NW. Moat Cailin would be vulnerable to the Manderlys now, I'm not sure who the troops holding it now are sworn to it might not even be necesary for them to take it anymore. The Manderlys have had about three years to mobilize for war, I don't think they could have mobilized as many men at the beginning of the war. They lacked the equipment and trained men. The fighting between Manderly and Bolton was a descisive factor in the fall of both Moat Cailin and Winterfell. Part of the reason that the Ironborn abandoned the North is because the Norterners didn't even really consider them enough of a threat to fight. They seemed more interested at killing each other at a very key moment.

[Ghost714]

I agree with others who have said Manderly has a lot of men to contribute to the Northern Forces. Manderly himself said he commands more heavy horse than any other Lord north of the Neck, and Manderly only took like a hundred Knights to Winterfell for "Arya's" wedding. So it sucks that Manderly can only help Stannis by switching to his side with a hundred Knights, but at the same time it's a good thing in case something goes wrong, because virtually all his strenght is still at White Harbor.

I for one can not wait to see them in action, after Stannis beats the Bolton's and takes back Winterfell. I believe GRRM purposely kept Manderly's main strenght behind again for a reason. That way the north can still muster a fairly large army, especially for being this late in the game.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I agree with others who have said Manderly has a lot of men to contribute to the Northern Forces. Manderly himself said he commands more heavy horse than any other Lord north of the Neck, and Manderly only took like a hundred Knights to Winterfell for "Arya's" wedding. So it sucks that Manderly can only help Stannis by switching to his side with a hundred Knights, but at the same time it's a good thing in case something goes wrong, because virtually all his strenght is still at White Harbor.

I for one can not wait to see them in action, after Stannis beats the Bolton's and takes back Winterfell. I believe GRRM purposely kept Manderly's main strenght behind again for a reason. That way the north can still muster a fairly large army, especially for being this late in the game.

All the evidence points to Manderly holding a stacked hand:

1. 50 + War Galleys

2. Control of the North's only city and a large area of the North

3. Bannerman include 12 petty lords and 100 landed knights

4. Refugees from the war and the weather have likely gravitated towards White Harbor

5. Vaults full of silver

6. Control over Widow's Watch and Oldcastle

I just hope Lord Manderley does not die from the wounds he suffered at the hands of Ser Hosteen. I don't know if his son is quite ready to lead in his stead.

[Ghost714]

All the evidence points to Manderly holding a stacked hand:

1. 50 + War Galleys

2. Control of the North's only city and a large area of the North

3. Bannerman include 12 petty lords and 100 landed knights

4. Refugees from the war and the weather have likely gravitated towards White Harbor

5. Vaults full of silver

6. Control over Widow's Watch and Oldcastle

I just hope Lord Manderley does not die from the wounds he suffered at the hands of Ser Hosteen. I don't know if his son is quite ready to lead in his stead.

Ya I also really hope Manderly doesn't die, he just became such a known badass, it would really suck to see him go without us getting to see him do more badass stuff. At least Robett Glover was there with Davos, and privy to all Wyman's plans, that way if Wyman does die, Wylis can still know his fathers intentions, and then hopefully Wylis will then cary out Wyman's plans.

It seems like Wyman Manderly has way more strength than Roose alone, not even counting other loyal Northmen and Stannis that would be on Wyman's side. I for one can not wait to see all of Wyman's careful planning and preparation come into the story. A lot of characters are going to be shocked, because they underestimated "Lord-to-fat-to-sit-a-horse".

[Septon Meribald]

Ya I also really hope Manderly doesn't die, he just became such a known badass, it would really suck to see him go without us getting to see him do more badass stuff. At least Robett Glover was there with Davos, and privy to all Wyman's plans, that way if Wyman does die, Wylis can still know his fathers intentions, and then hopefully Wylis will then cary out Wyman's plans.

It seems like Wyman Manderly has way more strength than Roose alone, not even counting other loyal Northmen and Stannis that would be on Wyman's side. I for one can not wait to see all of Wyman's careful planning and preparation come into the story. A lot of characters are going to be shocked, because they underestimated "Lord-to-fat-to-sit-a-horse".

I never got the impression that Lord Manderly's wound was a particularly grievous one. I think he will live. But the inability to go out with his forces puts him in a bad position. He will essentially be taken hostage if Roose discovers the White Harbor men have turned against him.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I never got the impression that Lord Manderly's wound was a particularly grievous one. I think he will live. But the inability to go out with his forces puts him in a bad position. He will essentially be taken hostage if Roose discovers the White Harbor men have turned against him.

He took a pretty bad wound from Hosteen Frey and was losing a lot of blood. Hopefully they got a Maester to staunch the wound. I agree about the potential hostage situation, but his heir is free and running things in White Harbor. As Ghost714 mentioned, Galbart Glover is also in White Harbor and a key member of the efforts to retake the North. If Lord Wyman dies, it will not be the end of all.

[Septon Meribald]

He took a pretty bad wound from Hosteen Frey and was losing a lot of blood. Hopefully they got a Maester to staunch the wound. I agree about the potential hostage situation, but his heir is free and running things in White Harbor. As Ghost714 mentioned, Galbart Glover is also in White Harbor and a key member of the efforts to retake the North. If Lord Wyman dies, it will not be the end of all.

Certainly not, it's if he lives that I worry about. Will Galbart Glover and more importantly his own son be willing to risk Lord Manderly's life with an attack. Without an uprising inside Winterfell it will take an attack to remove the Boltons, but I wonder whether that will be possible with the opposition leader captive inside.

[Free Northman]

Certainly not, it's if he lives that I worry about. Will Galbart Glover and more importantly his own son be willing to risk Lord Manderly's life with an attack. Without an uprising inside Winterfell it will take an attack to remove the Boltons, but I wonder whether that will be possible with the opposition leader captive inside.

I don't see the Winterfell situation dragging out for much longer. The Bolton arc will reach its climax soon. I doubt we'll see Ramsay clinging to Winterfell with Lord Manderly locked up in the dungeon for 2 more books. By the middle of the next book the Boltons will be history.

[jarl the climber]

I don't see the Winterfell situation dragging out for much longer. The Bolton arc will reach its climax soon. I doubt we'll see Ramsay clinging to the Winterfell with Lord Manderly locked up in the dungeon for 2 more books. By the middle of the next book the Boltons will be history.

Thats the thing, if Ramsey is killed and Fake Arya is with Stannis Roose would lose his claim to Winterfell. He might just fall back on the Dreadfort, His forces are mostly intact. Jon said it took 2 years for the Starks to starve them out of the Dreadfort during one of their wars. So it could drag on for a long time and it would tie down a lot of troops if the Dreadfort was put under seige. That is why getting Rickon is a key for Manderly, he wants Roose to bend the knee to him. I agree that Ramsey will be history sometime in the next book but Roose will find some way to survive even if he has to take the Black.

[Ghost714]

Thats the thing, if Ramsey is killed and Fake Arya is with Stannis Roose would lose his claim to Winterfell. He might just fall back on the Dreadfort, His forces are mostly intact. Jon said it took 2 years for the Starks to starve them out of the Dreadfort during one of their wars. So it could drag on for a long time and it would tie down a lot of troops if the Dreadfort was put under seige. That is why getting Rickon is a key for Manderly, he wants Roose to bend the knee to him. I agree that Ramsey will be history sometime in the next book but Roose will find some way to survive even if he has to take the Black.

I think Mance will be the one to let Stannis's men intI Winterfell, after Stannis beats Ramsey, and then Roose will be completely taken unawares, without a chance to run back to the Dreadfort.

Gods, how weird would that be for Roose to take the black! Jon might give him his own little command.

[Free Northman]

Thats the thing, if Ramsey is killed and Fake Arya is with Stannis Roose would lose his claim to Winterfell. He might just fall back on the Dreadfort, His forces are mostly intact. Jon said it took 2 years for the Starks to starve them out of the Dreadfort during one of their wars. So it could drag on for a long time and it would tie down a lot of troops if the Dreadfort was put under seige. That is why getting Rickon is a key for Manderly, he wants Roose to bend the knee to him. I agree that Ramsey will be history sometime in the next book but Roose will find some way to survive even if he has to take the Black.

Roose won't survive. He's the one who sank a sword into Robb's chest.

Roose has less than 1 book left to live.

And I don't see how a siege can really drag on for 4 years. If you just build 50 catapults and pound away at a small section of wall - say 20 thrown rocks per catapult per day - that's 1000 rocks per day for say half a year (make it 200 days), that's 200,000 rocks pounding into the wall - there's no way a wall is going to stand up to that kind of punishment. Is there?

How can a siege possibly last for years if the defenders are totally surrounded and the attackers can build as many catapults as they want from the plenty of trees in the surrounding forests?

[Ghost714]

Roose won't survive. He's the one who sank a sword into Robb's chest.

Roose has less than 1 book left to live.

And I don't see how a siege can really drag on for 4 years. If you just build 50 catapults and pound away at a small section of wall - say 20 thrown rocks per catapult per day - that's 1000 rocks per day for say half a year (make it 200 days), that's 200,000 rocks pounding into the wall - there's no way a wall is going to stand up to that kind of punishment. Is there?

How can a siege possibly last for years if the defenders are totally surrounded and the attackers can build as many catapults as they want from the plenty of trees in the surrounding forests?

Well that's pretty much what Robert and Ned did at Pyke, but most army's would rather just make camp outside the Castle, and wait till they run out of food and surrender. However Stannis doesn't have that luxury, because he needs to be back at the Wall ASAP. Also Stannis's army would still be starving and freezing while trying to build seige equipment. Even if you do manage to punch a hole in a wall with a catapult, you still have to storm through that hole, and the defenders still have the advantage, because it makes a choke point, to wear greater numbers mean nothing. Meanwhile archers can still fire at you, and people can still poor boiling oil and stuff on you as you come through the hole.

For that same reason is why places like Winterfell have two great certain walls. You can't really brake through one wall, and then try and brake through the next wall, while using that same hole you just made, because your using a catapult not a cannon(if that makes sense).

Also Many places like Meereen burn down all the tree's within 20 leagues of the castle/city, so it's very hard to build seige equipment.

I don't think Winterfell can be taken by seige, at least not by Stannis anyway, he does not have enough food or men. It's for that reason that I do not see Roose leaving Winterfell. That is also why I think Mance Rayder will be the one to open a gate for Stannis and his men. If one gate was only guarded by a 3 or 4 men, Mance could kill them, and under the conver of darkness and snowfall, nobody will see it, and then Stannis takes Roose unawares. This could be the act that allows Mance to live, in the eyes of Stannis and the Northmen, on top of trying to save who Mance believed to be Arya Stark.

[jarl the climber]

Roose won't survive. He's the one who sank a sword into Robb's chest.

Roose has less than 1 book left to live.

And I don't see how a siege can really drag on for 4 years. If you just build 50 catapults and pound away at a small section of wall - say 20 thrown rocks per catapult per day - that's 1000 rocks per day for say half a year (make it 200 days), that's 200,000 rocks pounding into the wall - there's no way a wall is going to stand up to that kind of punishment. Is there?

How can a siege possibly last for years if the defenders are totally surrounded and the attackers can build as many catapults as they want from the plenty of trees in the surrounding forests?

You would have to lay seige to it in the middle of a terrible winter, Boltons own losses have been modest and his forces would not yeild the countryside to the beseigers. If Stannis has the girl and the turncloak Roose must assume that he might find out the truth about Bran and Rickon if he all ready doesn't know and if Jeyne is pregnant he has the Pretender Lord of Winterfell and the Dreadfort. If his plot is falling apart why not just abandon it and retreat to the Dreadfort and try to exact the best terms he can for bending his knee like he always does.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

You would have to lay seige to it in the middle of a terrible winter, Boltons own losses have been modest and his forces would not yeild the countryside to the beseigers. If Stannis has the girl and the turncloak Roose must assume that he might find out the truth about Bran and Rickon if he all ready doesn't know and if Jeyne is pregnant he has the Pretender Lord of Winterfell and the Dreadfort. If his plot is falling apart why not just abandon it and retreat to the Dreadfort and try to exact the best terms he can for bending his knee like he always does.

Even if Ramsay and the Freys are defeated Roose Bolton is still in prime position to win. All he has to do is what behind the strong walls of Winterfell and let Stannis and his host freeze to death. Roose kept the best part of his strength safely behind the walls while sending out men he would be glad to loose. For Stannis to achieve ultimate victory he will need an uprising within Winterfell.

As for the other Northern elements we have been talking about, all can still go as planned once Rickon is found and returned to White Harbor.

[jon rr stark]

The Boltons have a lot of forces at winterfell. Manderley would be able to block any retreat to the dreadfort with his larger forces. However it wouldn't make much difference If Rickon turns up and Robbs letter declaring Jon King of the North appears. (aside from the minor detail of him being nearly dead) all the North will rally to the Stark heirs, even the Bolton men will once Roose is dead as they are only following their Lord. In the interview on SSM GRRM said there would be two battles early in the next book and most of the issues from dance would be sorted early in that book. This can happen with the return of a Stark and the defeat of Roose. He also said we would see more of the Others. That implys an invasion from beyond the wall or the forces of the North going north. I cant see the NW being any kind of useful force against an invasion of the Others which means the Northern forces must face them. If they are not organised they will be swept aside ant all of Westeros is laid open as none of the Southerns are in a position to face them.

The only way I see any resistance happening is for a Northern force including 3000 to 5000 Wildings plus a similar amount from Skagos.

As to Manderleys heavy horse, will they be so usefull in a battle in a Northern winter. The fighting is going to be down and dirty, the type of stuff that the mountain clans the wildlings and skagos are used to.

So the way I see it panning out is there needs to be a significant Northern force 40,000 or so, who will do battle with the Others. Lets assume they win somehow. That will leave a victorious battle hardened Northern army looking South with a seriously low opinion of everthing South, but now backed up by intact armys from the Vale lead by sansa and maybe the blackfish (with LF head on a pike although I doubt he will go so easily) and whatever is left of riverrun.

Without a significant Northern force with cohesive leadership, Westeros is lost to the Others. But another thought. If the Others dont make some significant impact then what was the point of hyping them up all this time, so maybe they do sweep down on everyone???

[Ghost714]

The Boltons have a lot of forces at winterfell. Manderley would be able to block any retreat to the dreadfort with his larger forces. However it wouldn't make much difference If Rickon turns up and Robbs letter declaring Jon King of the North appears. (aside from the minor detail of him being nearly dead) all the North will rally to the Stark heirs, even the Bolton men will once Roose is dead as they are only following their Lord. In the interview on SSM GRRM said there would be two battles early in the next book and most of the issues from dance would be sorted early in that book. This can happen with the return of a Stark and the defeat of Roose. He also said we would see more of the Others. That implys an invasion from beyond the wall or the forces of the North going north. I cant see the NW being any kind of useful force against an invasion of the Others which means the Northern forces must face them. If they are not organised they will be swept aside ant all of Westeros is laid open as none of the Southerns are in a position to face them.

The only way I see any resistance happening is for a Northern force including 3000 to 5000 Wildings plus a similar amount from Skagos.

As to Manderleys heavy horse, will they be so usefull in a battle in a Northern winter. The fighting is going to be down and dirty, the type of stuff that the mountain clans the wildlings and skagos are used to.

So the way I see it panning out is there needs to be a significant Northern force 40,000 or so, who will do battle with the Others. Lets assume they win somehow. That will leave a victorious battle hardened Northern army looking South with a seriously low opinion of everthing South, but now backed up by intact armys from the Vale lead by sansa and maybe the blackfish (with LF head on a pike although I doubt he will go so easily) and whatever is left of riverrun.

Without a significant Northern force with cohesive leadership, Westeros is lost to the Others. But another thought. If the Others dont make some significant impact then what was the point of hyping them up all this time, so maybe they do sweep down on everyone???

I have never really bought into the idea that "the Others have to invade all of Westeros, or what's the point". I think it's a possibility, and that is the point. The only chance is to stop them at the Wall, otherwise the fight is lost, if the Others get south of the Wall. To me, the "point" has always been that the Others COULD invade Westeros, if the North doesn't unite under a common leader, to go fight them at the Wall.

So many people think that there is just no reason for the Nights Watch or anything, if the Others do not end up invading all of Westeros, or something...I don't see it that way, I think the Others can get past the Wall, but only if it's not properly defended. That is precisely why there is going to be an epic battle at the Wall, and even if all remaining Northern forces left go fight at the Wall, it still might not be enough, because the Northern arm isn't as strong as it could be(we all know why). So that's what the "threat" will be, is the remaining Northern forces enough to stop the Others, IMO.

[jon rr stark]

I have never really bought into the idea that "the Others have to invade all of Westeros, or what's the point". I think it's a possibility, and that is the point. The only chance is to stop them at the Wall, otherwise the fight is lost, if the Others get south of the Wall. To me, the "point" has always been that the Others COULD invade Westeros, if the North doesn't unite under a common leader, to go fight them at the Wall.

So many people think that there is just no reason for the Nights Watch or anything, if the Others do not end up invading all of Westeros, or something...I don't see it that way, I think the Others can get past the Wall, but only if it's not properly defended. That is precisely why there is going to be an epic battle at the Wall, and even if all remaining Northern forces left go fight at the Wall, it still might not be enough, because the Northern arm isn't as strong as it could be(we all know why). So that's what the "threat" will be, is the remaining Northern forces enough to stop the Others, IMO.

ok that seems fair enough. So the North must then have a significant fighting force in place and a leader they will all follow. In light of Jons position he might not be that leader in the immediate futur. So that leaves Stannis as the only experienced battle commander. If he defeats the Boltons and names a Stark al lord of winterfell the north will follow. But will he name them king of the north. Given that he will be in command of a northern army he may have no choice but to be flexible. Once the others emerge, the game changes. Will Skagos have any forces and will they fight for Stannis, the wildlings should follow him as he let them throught the wall, will Manderely back him or install Rickon as King as act as the regent hence demanding the loyality of the other northern forces, who Lady Dustin follow him. Rickon is only a child so given Jons situation and the fake Arya there is no Stark available to follow directly unless Sansa emerges from the Vale with an army, a posibility if the Blackfish helped her.

In all this confusion expect to see Howland reed emerge to clarify a few things, because without a leader there will be no significant army to muster as nobody much realy believes the others are coming yet!

[Ghost714]

ok that seems fair enough. So the North must then have a significant fighting force in place and a leader they will all follow. In light of Jons position he might not be that leader in the immediate futur. So that leaves Stannis as the only experienced battle commander. If he defeats the Boltons and names a Stark al lord of winterfell the north will follow. But will he name them king of the north. Given that he will be in command of a northern army he may have no choice but to be flexible. Once the others emerge, the game changes. Will Skagos have any forces and will they fight for Stannis, the wildlings should follow him as he let them throught the wall, will Manderely back him or install Rickon as King as act as the regent hence demanding the loyality of the other northern forces, who Lady Dustin follow him. Rickon is only a child so given Jons situation and the fake Arya there is no Stark available to follow directly unless Sansa emerges from the Vale with an army, a posibility if the Blackfish helped her.

In all this confusion expect to see Howland reed emerge to clarify a few things, because without a leader there will be no significant army to muster as nobody much realy believes the others are coming yet!

I believe Jon will be the main rallying poi t for the North, and Jon and Stannis will lead the North to the Wall to do battle with the Others. Jon or Rickon might be declared as King in the North, but I highly doubt that Rickon will be declared King. If that happens, Stannis will not have much of a chance to dispute it, he is greatly outnumbered.

Even if Rickon is declared Lord of Winterfell, I believe Jon will still rally the North, and lead them to the Wall to fight the Others. Stannis is a seasoned battle commander, everyone knows that, that's why I think he will have command of a big chunk of the Northern forces, and Jon will command the other major chunk, because they can't all be together, to guard the whole Wall. Jon will be the main rallying point though for everyone, Northmen, Wildlings, Skagosi, etc... I can also see Jon giving command to other loyal Northmen, like Mors Crowfood Umber for example. Tormond will probably command most of the Wildlings, with maybe some Northmen, in his section of the Wall.

There may be some politics in between Stannis beating the Boltons, and everyone going to the Wall. Like Manderly becoming Rickons Lord Regent of the North etc, but as soon as the Others make their first attack on the Wall, all of that will be pointless, and they will all get their asses to the Wall.

After Stannis beats Bolton, I believe Lady Dustin will join her main force with the loyal Northmen, her people will want to rally to a Stark, and she won't have much choice, when the Others make their first attack.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I believe Jon will be the main rallying poi t for the North, and Jon and Stannis will lead the North to the Wall to do battle with the Others. Jon or Rickon might be declared as King in the North, but I highly doubt that Rickon will be declared King. If that happens, Stannis will not have much of a chance to dispute it, he is greatly outnumbered.

Even if Rickon is declared Lord of Winterfell, I believe Jon will still rally the North, and lead them to the Wall to fight the Others. Stannis is a seasoned battle commander, everyone knows that, that's why I think he will have command of a big chunk of the Northern forces, and Jon will command the other major chunk, because they can't all be together, to guard the whole Wall. Jon will be the main rallying point though for everyone, Northmen, Wildlings, Skagosi, etc... I can also see Jon giving command to other loyal Northmen, like Mors Crowfood Umber for example. Tormond will probably command most of the Wildlings, with maybe some Northmen, in his section of the Wall.

There may be some politics in between Stannis beating the Boltons, and everyone going to the Wall. Like Manderly becoming Rickons Lord Regent of the North etc, but as soon as the Others make their first attack on the Wall, all of that will be pointless, and they will all get their asses to the Wall.

After Stannis beats Bolton, I believe Lady Dustin will join her main force with the loyal Northmen, her people will want to rally to a Stark, and she won't have much choice, when the Others make their first attack.

The Dustins and Ryswells will have no choice if Roose is defeated. As for the Others, I think there is magic within the Wall that prevents them from passing. It must be their army of wights that breaches and brings down the Wall. I remember the horn that Mance Rayder was supposedly using to bring down the Wall. I think it will come into play.

[Ghost714]

The Dustins and Ryswells will have no choice if Roose is defeated. As for the Others, I think there is magic within the Wall that prevents them from passing. It must be their army of wights that breaches and brings down the Wall. I remember the horn that Mance Rayder was supposedly using to bring down the Wall. I think it will come into play.

The Horn Mance claimed to be the Horn of Joramun got burned by Mel.

I personally believe that the Horn of Joramun is the Horn Jon gave to Sam, the one he found with all the Dragonglass near the Fist, and there for I believe that Horn is safe in Oldtown.

I don't think the Others or Wights can go through they Wall, nor around it, but I don't see why they couldn't go over it. I don't believe that the entire Wall will fall or anything. I think the struggle will be in holding the Wall, and repelling the Others/Wights as they try and come over it. I mean, if the Wall itself was enough to keep out the Others, there would not be much need for the Nights Watch. Obviously the Wall does most of the protecting, but it's still up to the Nights Watch to man the Wall, and in this case it's up to the rest of the North to help the Nights Watch. If the Wall were to fall though, I don't think it is a winnable fight for the realms of men. Every person killed would become a Wight, it would be like in a zombie movie, it would take no time for everyone to become Wights. That's why I think the real threat and trouble will be in manning the Wall, trying to keep the Others/Wights from coming over, and trying to keep them from bringing down the Wall. Even then though, without the Wall coming down, men might still lose, because there aren't that many people that will be able to man the Wall, after the war and all the death that comes with a harsh years long winter. That's why I do not think the Wall has to fall "for there to be a real threat", unlike most people who believe the Wall must fall. No matter what people might think though, the Others can still be a major threat against the Realms of men, without the whole Wall coming down.