[ADWD Spoilers] New info on the North's military strength

[cybroleach]

In a short visit to the northwestern hills Stannis was able to scoop up a force of upwards of 3000 hardy Northern hillsmen. He said his forces numbered upwards of 5000 and were growing every day. Of these how many were southron jackanapes? I'm thinking maybe 1500 at most. It therefore seems that the Northern hillsmen number around 4000 in Stannis's force, and we don't even know if this is all the able bodied men they have available. These are just the ones who chose to join Stannis at short notice.

Furthermore, if we assume that the North grows progressively less populated the further north you go, and taking into account the fact that these hills are located in the far north, just below the western part of the Gift, then it is logical to assume that the areas further south would have even more men available. In any case, we have about 4000 hillsmen to add to our tally.

Next, the Umbers seem to have a number of small armies in the field - I got a bit confused here. I think Crowfood had about 500 men, and wasn't there another Umber who had a force as well?

Then we have the Karstarks with maybe 500 men as well.

Next we have all the forces with Bolton - maybe 4000. But it seems these do not represent all the forces of the lords in question, but only those they chose to release to join Bolton as he marched to Winterfell.

All of these exclude the Manderleys, who seem to have plenty of men in reserve - plus enough naval forces to man upwards of 50 war galleys - at 50-100 men per galley this would seem to be anything from 2500 to 5000 naval soldiers on top of their land forces.

So far we have ignored all the forces of Howland Reed, who reduced the Ironmen to bleeding wrecks at Moat Cailin. We have no idea how many of them there are.

We also hear of more soldiers at Bear Island who refused Stannis summons, and of course the BIG unknown is the number of warriors the fierce men of Skagos can unleash should they choose to join Rickon. I'm thinking a few thousand, considering Skagos is the size of England, more or less.

In any case, we clearly haven't seen ALL the untapped resources of the North yet, but just what we've seen so far in Dance suggests that the North probably has the makings of another host of 20 000 men spread across its territory

20000? Maybe 25000? Even 30 000?

Anything I missed?

Yes I beileive you're massively overstating the hill tribes here. Stannis says he has north of 5K with an army of Mormonts, Glover men, while lesser lords, freeriders and men who were part of Rodrick's host were flocking to him. With the Karstark's and Umbers he gains another 1K.

One house we know for sure is tapped out is Umber, their new men old greybeards with Whoresbane & unshaving boys with Crowfood are these thousand men. There cannot be a third Umber host left.

Cat clearly guides Robb to pick Roose Bolton. When Robb suggests the Greatjon to take command Cat thinks: It was his first misstep, but how to make him see it without wounding his fledgling confidence? Later she counsels:"You want cold cunning, I should think, not courage." "Roose Bolton," Robb said at once.

Who do you think Cat had in mind when she advised "cold cunning"? Who do you think did she expect Robb to pick after her description? Note that Robb picked Bolton "at once".

You'll can quote the text all you want here Mormont will never let his love of Cat doing no wrong here go. I agree its pretty clearly her manipulation, she did just manipulate him to not choose Greatjon and following their conversation more Robb is unsure of Roose and Cat reaffirms how good a choice Roose is.

[cybroleach]

I refer to the taking of Deepwood Motte by Stannis. The Northmen vastly outnumber the ironborn, AND they take them by surprise. Yet we are shown how the few Ironborn with Asha each build up a tally of about 6 or 7 dead Northmen before they go down. Why not the other way around? Why not 6 or 7 dead Ironborn for every dead Northman.

To be there were massively more Ironborn killed than northerners here. Asha had what 200-300 men? Eight Ironborn survived. We see what 40-50 Northerners killed that's 4-6 to 1 killed northerner.

Fast forward to the death of Little Walder Frey, and ser Aenys or Hosteen or whoever confronting and attacking lord Manderly. All hell breaks loose after that, but once again Martin tells us that it leaves 6 of Manderly's men dead, but only two Freys. Why not 6 Freys and only 2 dead Manderlys?

Well the Freys did have swords and armour here to Manderlys knives and plates.

And again to the taking of Jaime Lannister at the Whispering Wood. If I recall correctly Jaime cut a swathe of dead men through the Stark ranks before he was taken.

Again this is another battle where Jaime has 2,300 men with him and none survive to retreate to Riverrun.

Oh yes, the other BIG example I forgot is friggin TYRION. At the battle he is involved in against the northern forces under Bolton, TYRION of all people manages to kill 2 or 3 northmen. Now I'm sorry, but if even a southern DWARF is as good as 2 or 3 hardy Northmen, then the North might as well pack their bags and go home.

Tyrion is clearly one of the best warriors in ASOIAF be glad he only killed 3 northerners at the BOTB he killed 15-20 southerners to the point that men fleeing from him in terror.

[Ghost714]

Yes, based on how badass Tyrion was on the bridge of ships, during the battle of the Blackwater. It is very clear he is the brother of Jaime Lannister, no matter how short and stunted he may be.

Not to mention the hill's tribes when he was being taken to the vale, he killed a handful of people there. Same goes for when he was put in Lord Tywin's Vanguard, he even managed to capture a knight after beating him one on one. Last but not least he held his own, when traveling with Griff and co, down the Rhoyne River. He even managed to save young Griff against one of the greyscale dudes.

And all that is just the physical bad-ass-ness he achieved. Which is quite the accomplishment considering he is a bloody Dwarf.

Lol don't even get me started on all the mental Bad-ass-ness.

Basically Tyrion Lannister is a straight up Gladiator amongst men, and a genius one at that.

[LuisDantas]

Little side note, and this is very off topic, but it's something that has always made me curious.

I thought only knights, Lords, and Princes/Kings could participate in a tourny, that was always my understanding anyway. So how were Jorrey Cassel and other Stark house hold guards, able to take part in the lists, at the tourny of the hand thrown for Ned???

Good question. And there is the Hound as well.

My provisional answer is that each tourney makes its own rules, and the one in question was obviously not going to intentionally exclude Ned's bannermen if it could help it. I assume anyone that Ned (or Robert himself) vouched for would be allowed to participate.

After all, it is just a tourney. It is not like they particularly needed to ensure that the winners were proper knights or somesuch.

[Ghost714]

Good question. And there is the Hound as well.

My provisional answer is that each tourney makes its own rules, and the one in question was obviously not going to intentionally exclude Ned's bannermen if it could help it. I assume anyone that Ned (or Robert himself) vouched for would be allowed to participate.

After all, it is just a tourney. It is not like they particularly needed to ensure that the winners were proper knights or somesuch.

Thank you, that is a good answer.

[zmflavius]

To be there were massively more Ironborn killed than northerners here. Asha had what 200-300 men? Eight Ironborn survived. We see what 40-50 Northerners killed that's 4-6 to 1 killed northerner.

Well the Freys did have swords and armour here to Manderlys knives and plates.

Again this is another battle where Jaime has 2,300 men with him and none survive to retreate to Riverrun.

Tyrion is clearly one of the best warriors in ASOIAF be glad he only killed 3 northerners at the BOTB he killed 15-20 southerners to the point that men fleeing from him in terror.

I think what Free Northman is trying to say is that Northmen should be able to achieve favorable kill ratios with little to no effort.

[Ser Lepus]

Good question. And there is the Hound as well.

My provisional answer is that each tourney makes its own rules, and the one in question was obviously not going to intentionally exclude Ned's bannermen if it could help it. I assume anyone that Ned (or Robert himself) vouched for would be allowed to participate.

After all, it is just a tourney. It is not like they particularly needed to ensure that the winners were proper knights or somesuch.

We know that freerinders are allowed to participate in some tourneys without need of being knighted first; Lothor Brune was in the list of the Tourney for King Joffrey's 13th Name Day before being knighted.

[LuisDantas]

Well brought up, Ser Lepus.

Ghost was probably thinking of the many tourneys that do restrict participation to Knights and the like. Having read The Hedge Knight recently I know that this can be important.

[Ghost714]

Yeah in The Hedge Kniight, you can't ride in the list's unless you have been knighted. So I guess I was applying that to the more present day story line.

[DurararaFTW]

In a short visit to the northwestern hills Stannis was able to scoop up a force of upwards of 3000 hardy Northern hillsmen. He said his forces numbered upwards of 5000 and were growing every day. Of these how many were southron jackanapes? I'm thinking maybe 1500 at most. It therefore seems that the Northern hillsmen number around 4000 in Stannis's force, and we don't even know if this is all the able bodied men they have available. These are just the ones who chose to join Stannis at short notice.

Furthermore, if we assume that the North grows progressively less populated the further north you go, and taking into account the fact that these hills are located in the far north, just below the western part of the Gift, then it is logical to assume that the areas further south would have even more men available. In any case, we have about 4000 hillsmen to add to our tally.

Next, the Umbers seem to have a number of small armies in the field - I got a bit confused here. I think Crowfood had about 500 men, and wasn't there another Umber who had a force as well?

Then we have the Karstarks with maybe 500 men as well.

Next we have all the forces with Bolton - maybe 4000. But it seems these do not represent all the forces of the lords in question, but only those they chose to release to join Bolton as he marched to Winterfell.

All of these exclude the Manderleys, who seem to have plenty of men in reserve - plus enough naval forces to man upwards of 50 war galleys - at 50-100 men per galley this would seem to be anything from 2500 to 5000 naval soldiers on top of their land forces.

So far we have ignored all the forces of Howland Reed, who reduced the Ironmen to bleeding wrecks at Moat Cailin. We have no idea how many of them there are.

We also hear of more soldiers at Bear Island who refused Stannis summons, and of course the BIG unknown is the number of warriors the fierce men of Skagos can unleash should they choose to join Rickon. I'm thinking a few thousand, considering Skagos is the size of England, more or less.

In any case, we clearly haven't seen ALL the untapped resources of the North yet, but just what we've seen so far in Dance suggests that the North probably has the makings of another host of 20 000 men spread across its territory

20000? Maybe 25000? Even 30 000?

Anything I missed?

Last Hearth is the furthest region north on the main land, we now know that Greatjon was still able to muster all capable men-at-arms and send them south quick enough to join Robb's initial march. Nothing left but men that are far too old or boys that are far too young. Manderly's city is basically just down the road from Moat Cailin, he committed whatever he felt he wouldn't need for his warships as well.

As for Bolton and Karstark, they still have sizable force of men left because the men they committed to Robb's initial 20,000 managed to make it back north.

And again, maybe when Robb initial went south they were another 20,000 to be raised but in case you didn't notice, the North had some trouble of it's own. Deepwood Motte was put to the sword by Asha, Moat Cailin's peps were killed by Victarion, Winterfell, Hornwood and every man-at-arms that was willing to join Ser Rodric (and seeing the loyalty that even the mountain clans have for the Starks, that would be everybody that could come) was butchered by Ramsey, whatever Rodric left at Torrhen's Square was taken down by Cleftjaw. Ironborn's have been doing their thing all around Stoney Shore and Flint's finger as well.

So I wouldn't hold my breath what the remaining Northern strength is concerned. I'm surprised by Manderly's claim he's still got a good 10,000 men left behind that have been sitting on their ass throughout everything that's happened though.

[slayer420]

So I wouldn't hold my breath what the remaining Northern strength is concerned. I'm surprised by Manderly's claim he's still got a good 10,000 men left behind that have been sitting on their ass throughout everything that's happened though.

I think this is do to that white harbor would be a major distanation for any surivers to head too. With all the war around in the north alot of people headed there for safety

[cybroleach]

Well brought up, Ser Lepus.

Ghost was probably thinking of the many tourneys that do restrict participation to Knights and the like. Having read The Hedge Knight recently I know that this can be important.

Even the Hedge Knight had 3 Blackwoods ride in it.

[Night's Scotch]

Being a knight goes hand and hand with the worship of the Seven. The holly vow they take, the anointing with the oil's etc etc.... That's all Southern traditions that have to do with the Seven.

In AGoT when Rob first calls his banners, all the Lords are reporting at Winterfell before they march. Bran keeps asking Maester Lewin how many knights have come so far, If I remember right it's a pretty low number that Lewin tells Bran (something like 6 or 12 hundred). And there are about 12,000 Lords and there Bannermen. In Winterfell at this time. Anyway Maester Lewin says something to Bran like... How many times do I have to tell you there aren't many Knights in the North because most the north Worships the Old gods. Then he tells Bran that, it doesn't mean the Northern soldiers are any less competent or capable in comparison to the southern knights.

Little side note, and this is very off topic, but it's something that has always made me curious.

I thought only knights, Lords, and Princes/Kings could participate in a tourny, that was always my understanding anyway. So how were Jorrey Cassel and other Stark house hold guards, able to take part in the lists, at the tourny of the hand thrown for Ned???

Good question. And there is the Hound as well.

My provisional answer is that each tourney makes its own rules, and the one in question was obviously not going to intentionally exclude Ned's bannermen if it could help it. I assume anyone that Ned (or Robert himself) vouched for would be allowed to participate.

After all, it is just a tourney. It is not like they particularly needed to ensure that the winners were proper knights or somesuch.

I don't remember whether the book says anything about commoners in the melee or the lists, but we know they were allowed into the archery competition because Anguy won it and turned down the offer to be taken into Ned's service before keeping company with Tom o' Sevens and the rest.

In Jory's case, his grandfather was a knight (Ser Rodrik Cassel, Winterfell's Master at Arms, and his father fought alongside Ned during Robert's Rebellion and was one of the 6 who rode with Ned to the Tower of Joy. I kinda think you've answered your own question. There are plenty of mounted lances/heavy cavalry in the north, but since most of them worship the Old Gods, they don't stand a vigil in a sept or go through the other hoops to attain the title of Knight or Ser. It doesn't make them any less skilled, they just don't have the title.

Lastly, plate armor, warhorses, and all the other trappings of knighthood are expensive and so is a master at arms to teach you how to use them. Most commoners can't afford that unless they're wealthy merchants. Somebody like Bronn probably had to enlist in a city watch or household guard etc. to become a soldier. Remember Donal Noye's conversation with Jon at the Wall? Peasants like Grenn, Pyp, etc. have likely never even held a sword until they arrive at Castle Black.

[Ghost714]

Gods be good !!!!

I just read the new released chapter from The Winds of Winter (it wasn't really as long as a chapter but, I don't know what else to call it)

And it was freaking awesome!!!! For all those who haven't read it, I suggest you do, because it could possibly change some of our theory's on some things.

Here is the link to it.

http://georgerrmartin.com/if-sample.htm

And sorry if this is old news I just found out about it and read it today.

Ahhh so awesome!!!

[Ghost714]

Even the Hedge Knight had 3 Blackwoods ride in it.

Does it say those Blackwoods are not knights???

[Ghost714]

I don't remember whether the book says anything about commoners in the melee or the lists, but we know they were allowed into the archery competition because Anguy won it and turned down the offer to be taken into Ned's service before keeping company with Tom o' Sevens and the rest.

In Jory's case, his grandfather was a knight (Ser Rodrik Cassel, Winterfell's Master at Arms, and his father fought alongside Ned during Robert's Rebellion and was one of the 6 who rode with Ned to the Tower of Joy. I kinda think you've answered your own question. There are plenty of mounted lances/heavy cavalry in the north, but since most of them worship the Old Gods, they don't stand a vigil in a sept or go through the other hoops to attain the title of Knight or Ser. It doesn't make them any less skilled, they just don't have the title.

Yeah I was trying to say earlier that the Northerners can be just as "knight like" as the southerners, just without the title.

[bemused]

This topic is by no means my area of expertise ( if I have one ), but having read the new sample chapter , I can't help but wonder about the Umbers ...

Given that Crowsfood and Whoresbane seem to be playing their own game , and that we can't even be certain that Whoresbane is the guy with the Boltons ( see his signature ) , how can be be sure there aren't any able bodied Umber men somewhere with an old guy who can sign his name ?

[Jon Snow's Bastard]

I think the best real world comparison for Westeros's North is European russia. In 1500, Russia had a population of 6 million spread over nearly 1.5 million square miles (basically the exact size I think the north is). It has a similar mix of forest, mountains, and tundra, while both use extensive river systems for trade, and have access to the sea shipping lanes (though from fewer points than their size would suggest). I would bet that the north is harsher than Russia, so we should probably cut their population by at least a third or maybe even half, because their is no one in the gift and other places, while Russia has large temperate areas which would seem out of place in the North. (okay I convinced myself, half the population of 1500 Russia).

Someone posted an article a while back that said no pre-industrial society ever fielded more than 7% of their manpower without causing famine. Now I am not sure of that, but it makes sense for agrarian societies. If you think that in agriculture societies it took anywhere from 9 to 19 people (depending on their societies farming acumen and land) to produce enough surplus for 1 person, that makes sense.

That is why these places can run out of soldiers to field, but still have people left at home for defense (just not those trained or of age for battle).

I dont see the North a particularly fertile place, so I would definately put it in the lower portion of the surplus scale (19 producing for 1, and not 9 producing for 1), so 3.5% seem like a good % of the population for able bodied soldiers available for export in semi-foreign wars, without starvation. That would put the available pool of northmen at 105,000, which seems to be to be a few to many. Then you have to remember that most of the common soldiers who marched off in Robert Rebellion 10 years ago didnt return, and the Greyjoy Rebellion a few years after that had to makes sure that there numbers were automatically replenished in the ensueing years. So knock 20,000 off the total available soldiers and we are left with around 80,000-85,000 if the King in the North could convince absolutely everybody in the north to field every last man available. Now that is really not a likely scenario for any Southern expedition, and not likely for any expedition with bannermen such as Roose Boolton and Lady Barbrey Rysewll . So I would guess the effective strength of the King in the North (with time on his hands) is around 60,000-65,000 swords (of which a comparatively small 10% would be heavy cavalry).

14,000 didnt make it back from Robb's invasion of the South, and the North is currently in dissarray, but it is not in ruins.

[Jon Snow's Bastard]

No, I'm extrapolating and I did say that there's no evidence he ever had an independent command. Still, the one thing we do know is that Roose urged Robert and Ned to execute Barristan after the Trident. For a notably cautious man to feel himself in a position to offer advice such as that, he must surely have ranked quite high in Ned's command structure.

I think you misunderstanding the military dynamic. These decisions were made in council and in court. The dynamic wasnt a "command structure", it was a group of people standing around who were divided into two classes. Those entitled to speak their mind and advise the King/Lord and those who werent high enough. Roose was a bannerman and well within his rights to state his advice, he is the equivilent of a Peer, even if he is a relatively lower ranking one.

[Ghost714]

This topic is by no means my area of expertise ( if I have one ), but having read the new sample chapter , I can't help but wonder about the Umbers ...

Given that Crowsfood and Whoresbane seem to be playing their own game , and that we can't even be certain that Whoresbane is the guy with the Boltons ( see his signature ) , how can be be sure there aren't any able bodied Umber men somewhere with an old guy who can sign his name ?

Im really not sure what you are saying here? Especially in regards to a signature?