[ADWD Spoilers] New info on the North's military strength

[Ghost714]

I think the best real world comparison for Westeros's North is European russia. In 1500, Russia had a population of 6 million spread over nearly 1.5 million square miles (basically the exact size I think the north is). It has a similar mix of forest, mountains, and tundra, while both use extensive river systems for trade, and have access to the sea shipping lanes (though from fewer points than their size would suggest). I would bet that the north is harsher than Russia, so we should probably cut their population by at least a third or maybe even half, because their is no one in the gift and other places, while Russia has large temperate areas which would seem out of place in the North. (okay I convinced myself, half the population of 1500 Russia).

Someone posted an article a while back that said no pre-industrial society ever fielded more than 7% of their manpower without causing famine. Now I am not sure of that, but it makes sense for agrarian societies. If you think that in agriculture societies it took anywhere from 9 to 19 people (depending on their societies farming acumen and land) to produce enough surplus for 1 person, that makes sense.

That is why these places can run out of soldiers to field, but still have people left at home for defense (just not those trained or of age for battle).

I dont see the North a particularly fertile place, so I would definately put it in the lower portion of the surplus scale (19 producing for 1, and not 9 producing for 1), so 3.5% seem like a good % of the population for able bodied soldiers available for export in semi-foreign wars, without starvation. That would put the available pool of northmen at 105,000, which seems to be to be a few to many. Then you have to remember that most of the common soldiers who marched off in Robert Rebellion 10 years ago didnt return, and the Greyjoy Rebellion a few years after that had to makes sure that there numbers were automatically replenished in the ensueing years. So knock 20,000 off the total available soldiers and we are left with around 80,000-85,000 if the King in the North could convince absolutely everybody in the north to field every last man available. Now that is really not a likely scenario for any Southern expedition, and not likely for any expedition with bannermen such as Roose Boolton and Lady Barbrey Rysewll . So I would guess the effective strength of the King in the North (with time on his hands) is around 60,000-65,000 swords (of which a comparatively small 10% would be heavy cavalry).

14,000 were lost in the red wedding, and the North is currently in dissarray, but it is not in ruins.

I like everything you said and it all makes sense to me, but your last line about 14,000 men being lost at the red wedding. Rob didn't take nearly that many men with him. If memory serves it was around 3,500 men.

[Jon Snow's Bastard]

I like everything you said and it all makes sense to me, but your last line about 14,000 men being lost at the red wedding. Rob didn't take nearly that many men with him. If memory serves it was around 3,500 men.

I just meant the entire southern expedition led to 14,000 not making it back, but I am going to edit that

[zmflavius]

I just meant the entire southern expedition led to 14,000 not making it back, but I am going to edit that

Actually, Robb took at least 18k south. Possibly 20k if the first figure doesn't include the Manderly host.

[Ghost714]

I just meant the entire southern expedition led to 14,000 not making it back, but I am going to edit that

Oh ok. Yeah your right about that 14000 that never made it back period, I hope that I didn't come off like an ass, I was just confused by that last line

[Lord Damian]

Roose returned North with about 2 thousand Dreadfort men, another 1500 other Northmen. These do not count the Freys. Also, several hundred if not a thousand or so surrendered at Riverrun when Edmure capitulated to Jaime to save his whelp. I believe that many more escaped to join BWB or become outlaws etc.. I think that there are thousands more in the North that given good weather and full organized (not under haste) mobilization could muster 30 thousand and leave behind children under 13 and the too sick and infirm. However, the wildings that have come across and the more that come across seem to have possibly strong affinity toward Winterfell and the memory of the Starks in particular. The wilding women can fight too so that number could rise depending on how things settle in the North with Winterfell and the Wall and White Harbor.

[Ghost714]

Actually, Robb took at least 18k south. Possibly 20k if the first figure doesn't include the Manderly host.

Jon Snows bastard knows he took 20,000 men with him, he is saying out of those 20,000, fourteen thousand never made it back to the North.

[cybroleach]

Given that Crowsfood and Whoresbane seem to be playing their own game , and that we can't even be certain that Whoresbane is the guy with the Boltons ( see his signature ) , how can be be sure there aren't any able bodied Umber men somewhere with an old guy who can sign his name ?

Whoresbane who is with Ramsay is the same man who appeared to Bran in ACOK. And stretches all belief that no one (the Boltons and Karstarks are his neighbors FYI) would notice he's not himself or none of his 400 men betray his identity.

[DurararaFTW]

I think the best real world comparison for Westeros's North is European russia. In 1500, Russia had a population of 6 million spread over nearly 1.5 million square miles (basically the exact size I think the north is). It has a similar mix of forest, mountains, and tundra, while both use extensive river systems for trade, and have access to the sea shipping lanes (though from fewer points than their size would suggest). I would bet that the north is harsher than Russia, so we should probably cut their population by at least a third or maybe even half, because their is no one in the gift and other places, while Russia has large temperate areas which would seem out of place in the North. (okay I convinced myself, half the population of 1500 Russia).

Someone posted an article a while back that said no pre-industrial society ever fielded more than 7% of their manpower without causing famine. Now I am not sure of that, but it makes sense for agrarian societies. If you think that in agriculture societies it took anywhere from 9 to 19 people (depending on their societies farming acumen and land) to produce enough surplus for 1 person, that makes sense.

That is why these places can run out of soldiers to field, but still have people left at home for defense (just not those trained or of age for battle).

I dont see the North a particularly fertile place, so I would definately put it in the lower portion of the surplus scale (19 producing for 1, and not 9 producing for 1), so 3.5% seem like a good % of the population for able bodied soldiers available for export in semi-foreign wars, without starvation. That would put the available pool of northmen at 105,000, which seems to be to be a few to many. Then you have to remember that most of the common soldiers who marched off in Robert Rebellion 10 years ago didnt return, and the Greyjoy Rebellion a few years after that had to makes sure that there numbers were automatically replenished in the ensueing years. So knock 20,000 off the total available soldiers and we are left with around 80,000-85,000 if the King in the North could convince absolutely everybody in the north to field every last man available. Now that is really not a likely scenario for any Southern expedition, and not likely for any expedition with bannermen such as Roose Boolton and Lady Barbrey Rysewll . So I would guess the effective strength of the King in the North (with time on his hands) is around 60,000-65,000 swords (of which a comparatively small 10% would be heavy cavalry).

14,000 didnt make it back from Robb's invasion of the South, and the North is currently in dissarray, but it is not in ruins.

Are you joking? Winterfell could find exactly ONE person above twenty to defend Winterfell beside Ser Rodric after Robb left.

[zmflavius]

Jon Snows bastard knows he took 20,000 men with him, he is saying out of those 20,000, fourteen thousand never made it back to the North.

Since Roose took 3500 back, wouldn't that mean 16k never made it back? A minor quibble, but still.

[bemused]

cyborleach..( FYI) yes , I was aware of the identity of the Umbers' neighbours, having read the books.

However, I'm aware that there are questions around what exactly the Umbers are up to , and the ambiguity of a person who supposedly wanted to study to become a maester signing a document with a drawing made in a " cruder hand" than that of his co-signers. Surely it would be logical that anyone with such an ambition might have already learned to read and write to some degree .

I don't say that the Whoresbane inside Winterfell is a double , for certain ... that's why I posed it as a question. ;) to elicit other people's thoughts. ( I don't think we have a tongue-slightly-in-cheek smiley, do we ?)...and I have no idea how close to the chest his men can hold their cards.The Umbers seem to be pretty good at keeping their own counsel and they have a very good incentive in the Greatjon's captivity. It goes without saying that one would think Whoresbane ought to be recognizable to others present. That's just the other side of the ambiguity.

I don't think GRRM makes glaring mistakes in the drawing of his characters , so that means some explanation will be revealed , at some point. But whatever the explanation turns out to be , I don't think it's all that far-fetched to suspect that there may be some seasoned Umber men being held in reserve , or otherwise occupied .

Manderly seems to have managed to keep the building of a whole fleet ( and the swelling of his forces ) pretty well under wraps.

[Free Northman]

In aGoT, Ned says that him and the girls can still return from King's Landing by ship to get home in time for the harvest. This is hugely significant in terms of the military question, because it means that pretty much every able bodied young (or old) man will be required to reap the harvest. Martin has stated that the North is particularly reluctant to release men from harvest duty, due to the severity of their winters.

Based on some real medieval examples, it would seem that something like 80%-90% of young men would be required to bring in the harvest, and in the vast North this ratio would be even higher.

Therefore, the fact that they actually had 18000 men to spare at this particular time is surprising in itself. So the point is that once the harvest is over, all of these additional men will suddenly be freed up. Hence, once Winter arrives and no more harvesting can be done, all these idle hands can be put to armed use.

Meaning that there is almost certainly as many more men left to join the Northern army than the 20 000 that have been lost so far. Maybe even another 40 000.

[zmflavius]

In aGoT, Ned says that him and the girls can still return from King's Landing by ship to get home in time for the harvest. This is hugely significant in terms of the military question, because it means that pretty much every able bodied young (or old) man will be required to reap the harvest. Martin has stated that the North is particularly reluctant to release men from harvest duty, due to the severity of their winters.

Based on some real medieval examples, it would seem that something like 80%-90% of young men would be required to bring in the harvest, and in the vast North this ratio would be even higher.

Therefore, the fact that they actually had 18000 men to spare at this particular time is surprising in itself. So the point is that once the harvest is over, all of these additional men will suddenly be freed up. Hence, once Winter arrives and no more harvesting can be done, all these idle hands can be put to armed use.

Meaning that there is almost certainly as many more men left to join the Northern army than the 20 000 that have been lost so far. Maybe even another 40 000.

As of ADWD, with Rodrik's 6k, the 5k Stannis brought, and the maybe 5-7k the Boltons have gathered, at least 15k of that theoretical strength has been bled off or played already. Some houses, such as Ryswell, almost certainly are still holding back troops, but others, such as Umber, have probably run dry.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Rodrik had only 2k. The rest is still alive and could rally behind a Stark. Yes, even the Bolton troops, as soon as they've got a change of leadership. Or they might be collectively send to the Wall.

[DurararaFTW]

Rodrik had only 2k. The rest is still alive and could rally behind a Stark. Yes, even the Bolton troops, as soon as they've got a change of leadership. Or they might be collectively send to the Wall.

Rodrik could only find 2k between the surroundings of Winterfell, Castle Cerwyn and those that could be spared from Torrhen Square.

Moreover, Torrhen Square, Hornwood and Deepwood Motte were all put to the sword as well. And no, the Karstarks were being kept from their their leader true aim, the Boltons aren't suffering under any such delusion, they know their liege is against the Starks and after participating of the Red Wedding, killing their way through Ser Rodrik's host, Winterfell and Hornwood the North would be fools to trust them and the Bolton bannermen fools to think they'd be able to escape execution whilst serving the North. No way in hell.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Well, he had only 2k in front of Winterfell. Otherwise Ramsay with his six-hundred-odd would have had no chance.

Torrhen Square (the castle) and Deepwood Motte (the castle) were put to the sword, and there was fighting on Hornwoods land. But remember, Tallhart, Glover and Hornwood reigned areas as big as a normal European country. You can't put all the people capable of fighting in an area as big as France, Germany or maybe even as "small" as the Netherlands to the sword. But having potentially 5000 soldiers spread over 200,000 to 700,000 square miles doesn't help you if the Ironborn are standing half a mile from your front gate.

And the Bolton men may be killed. The officers surely will be. But maybe some Average Joes are spared. While unlikely, it is possible.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I have heard some people say that GRRM has been unfair to the northern soldiers, in reference to the southern soldiers. People say that the south has more formidable soldiers than the north. I think what many people are forgetting, is the fact that the south has knights, and the north basically doesn't. In Westeros, when it comes to knights, they are for the most part a southern thing. Being a knight goes hand and hand with the worship of the Seven. The holly vow they take, the anointing with the oil's etc etc.... That's all Southern traditions that have to do with the Seven.

In AGoT when Rob first calls his banners, all the Lords are reporting at Winterfell before they march. Bran keeps asking Maester Lewin how many knights have come so far, If I remember right it's a pretty low number that Lewin tells Bran (something like 6 or 12 hundred). And there are about 12,000 Lords and there Bannermen. In Winterfell at this time. Anyway Maester Lewin says something to Bran like... How many times do I have to tell you there aren't many Knights in the North because most the north Worships the Old gods. Then he tells Bran that, it doesn't mean the Northern soldiers are any less competent or capable in comparison to the southern knights.

Remember everything above is in my own words so don't shoot me of its 100% accurate, my point is to say enough to jog everyone's memory of what I'm talking about. (I'm at work and don't have the book with me)

Anyway for the most part White Harbor is one of the only Northern regions to worship The Seven. So that's why Maderly has so many knights, But that's not what makes house Manderly one of the strongest northern houses. The reason why White Harbor is so powerful, is because it's a very rich and prosperous Harbor. They do a lot of trading and stuff wich is a great source of income. Doesn't Wyman Manderly even say something in ADwD, allong the lines of, the Lannisters may have the gold, but the Maderlys have the silver?

Thanks to ADwD we know, that White Harbor has about 10,000 knights and men at arms, plus a decent sized navy. (I for one can't wait to see the full strength of house Manderly in action)

Little side note, and this is very off topic, but it's something that has always made me curious.

I thought only knights, Lords, and Princes/Kings could participate in a tourny, that was always my understanding anyway. So how were Jorrey Cassel and other Stark house hold guards, able to take part in the lists, at the tourny of the hand thrown for Ned???

Just how powerful is House Manderly? Even after all of its losses down South, the house seems to be in a pretty strong position to rule the North. Where does it say in ADWD that he has 10,000 men?

[Robert's Warhammer]

Just how powerful is House Manderly? Even after all of its losses down South, the house seems to be in a pretty strong position to rule the North. Where does it say in ADWD that he has 10,000 men?

I think that 10,000 men is including the sailors and soldiers on Manderly's ships, but I remember hearing that he has a couple thousand heavy horse and what not.

[mad-ness]

While the North could probably provide a seemingly endless supply of scouts and possibly archers I don't imagine that the North has anywhere near the same proportion of professional swordsman or soldiers as most of the other kingdoms.

The southron lords and knights have such large retinues (pages, underlings, hired guards, etc.). The sons mostly get knighted and it goes on and on. There is a constant creation of military strength that seems to be primarily limited by wealth.

In the north not only is there limited wealth but there is little cultural value placed upon heraldry and other nonsense.

Fortunately for the North Robb was a good enough commander to use the strength of the northmen (mobility, scouting, fierce fighting - typical irregular warfare stuff) and disguise the weaknesses. Hopefully Stannis is smart enough to do the same (though there isn't a whole lot of evidence for this). If the hill tribes happen to intercept Bolton's mobile force in the snowstorm they could cause incredible damage to his host.

edit: BTW, I keep going back and forth on who was more stupid - Stannis to rush to Winterfell with his host like Napolean marching into Russia or Bolton leaving his well defended castle where Stannis would have likely broken his army throwing it against the walls to trek out into a storm and face Stannis in an open battle. I guess that Stannis had only poor choices and Bolton had a good one and chose against it.

[Ghost714]

When it comes to Northern forces, most people come up with deferent figures after adding up all the known Houses, but I feel like nobody adds to their count the Houses in the Neck. It is not just House Reed in the Neck, the Reeds are just the ruling House in the Neck, at Greywater Watch. There is also Houses Blackmyre, Boggs, Cray, Fenn, Greengood, Marsh, Peat, and Quagg.

The Neck is a pretty big place, and there seems to be a lot of animal life there. So I don't think it's unrealistic to speculate that there is a decent size population there, I mean one that is at least worth mentioning, when adding to Northern forces. I kind of think it might be similar to the Northern Mountain Clans, that are now fighting for Stannis. Stannis was able to get over three thousand Northmen to join his cause. So I believe the Cronnogmen could offer the same amount of "fighting" forces, possibly even up to five thousand. The Cronnogmen have always made it a living hell for any opposing army trying to come to the North through the Neck. In order to cover the entire Neck, there would need to be a fair amount of Cronnogmen.

Like the Northern Mountain Clans, the Cronnogmen do not have the most advanced weapons, such as swords and armor. However the Cronnogmen do use poisoned weapons, so their weapons are very effective, for not being the most advanced. Just the lightest cut or scratch can be enough to cause a horribly painful death, we see such a thing when Reek/Theon goes to Moat Callin to get the Ironborn to surrender. Meera Reed has also shown to be very effective with a three pronged spear and throwing net.

So I agree that the Cronnogmen would not be very useful against mounted Knights in the open field, neither would they be effective in storming a Castle, most like. However in a wooded setting, there would be no one better. So if strategically placed, the Cronnogmen could really do some damage. They can become so still you think they have disappeared, they can run on trees, and breath mud. So I think that the Cronnogmen should definitely be considered when making an account of Northern forces. It is also mentioned in the books that Ned knew the worth of the Cronnogmen, and the Reeds of Greywater Watch, so I am very curious to know how he used them during the Rebellion.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

GRRM drives me crazy with the numbers game. Its such an important part of the story to know who can still fight and at what amount of strength. It's generally agreed that the North is nowhere near being a spent force and that Robb only took a fraction of the men available to him south. The problem is locating the remaining Northern strength. I agree that the Manderlys are holding back a strong force (army and navy) and that Skagos will yield a pretty sizable force as well. I am very interested in the Neck houses. It would seem that Robb would have been able to gather most of them, but there has been no mention of these houses in the books. If you are right, they could still provide a sizable force.

We also know that the Dustin bitch held most of her levies back, as did the Ryswells. Add this to the Stark loyalists with Roose in Winterfell, then it starts to make sense that another Northern host of 20,000-25,000 men could be had.