The Citadel and some conspiracy theory...

[Shaggydog Stark]

Hypothesis:

- The Citadel is somehow an institution with First Men (and maybe children of the forest) wisdom? (it seems unlikely, given their view on magic);

- The Citadel is a mean to an end, this being house Hightower part on the game of thrones: trying to control Westeros through the maesters;

Yeah, you see, I am really sort of paranoid. But I like it.

Okay I think we are both agreed that your first hypothesis is waaaaaay unlikely :). As for the second one, there could be a possibility. We all know the families in Westeros are always trying to gain political advantage somehow. Therefore, it could be possible, or the Hightowers are using the Citadel in some other way. We really need more information though to make this leap which we currently don't have.

Maybe the explanation is much more boring than that.

Every maester must forge his chain from links he is granted/forges after examination in different disciplines. But a maester does not have to forge links in all disciplines that are offered at the citadel. Pate mentions a maester who has a chain that holds no link made from Valyrian steel, and who despises magic. I guess that would be the link offered by Archmaester Marwyn in arcane studies.

Marwyn is proof that the study of magic in the citadel is not dead yet, but most Archmaesters think that his particular discipline should be abandoned. If magic was dead for several generations, I can see why maesters at the citadel would start considering its study a waste of time, and discourage students from learning it. Maesters who built their reputation on the non-existence of magic won't be pleased to find the ground shifting under their feet suddenly. Not only is their world-view wrong, but they are lacking knowledge in a powerful discipline.

Marwyn may be right about a conspiracy at the Citadel. Or he might just want to prevent Sam sharing his story with other maesters. I wonder what counsel he'll give Daenerys. I think he'll be trying to manipulate her for his own purposes, but I have no idea for what they are.

You make some very valid points. I think it all depends now on the attitude of the maesters to magic actually being real and alive. If they still behave in the same manner then there is definitely something fishy going on, but if they change their attitudes then maybe Marwyn is a big fat liar and perhaps he is the one doing all the conspiring.

Spoilers for anyone who hasn't read ADWD...

Please humor another n00b, but I have had a theory that Satin, the lord commander's steward, is in actuality the 'perfumed seneschal' foretold in Quaithe's prophecy (I can explain my take on that, but would prefer not to hijack this thread).

That he is a plant by the Citadel to keep abreast with happenings on the wall and possibly some sort of assassin as well, if you believe what Marwyn says.

Obviously 'seneschal' is translated to mean 'steward', and there is a passing, almost casual mention in one of Jon's early chapters about how the former Oldtown pillow boy is despised by his black brothers for the rose water that he dabs on himself daily. He was very present among the conspirators at the end of the book before Jon is 'killed'.

Hare-brained, I know, but that is what GRRM has done to this faithful reader.

Wow this is mind blowing. This is a really, really good theory. :bowdown:

I had never thought about this! You have given me so much to think about and I need to go back now and reread all the Satin chapters! I always thought that the perfumed seneschal was somehow only connected to Dany not someone else. Even if this theory turns out to be untrue in the future, it is a really good one!

[Cold Mist]

Thank you, I am not sure what response I expected, but I did not think I would get one that favorable, certainly.

I submitted a thread for approval about that prophecy and something related earlier in the ADWD forum, I will link it in this post if it gets approved.

edit: here you go:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/58090-adwd-spoilers-prophecy-at-the-wall-and-targaryan-madness/

[Yellow Dog]

Great theory.

I too thought that there was something more sinister with Archmaester Marwyn saying that to Sam. it definitely lends itself to the maesters trying to pull the strings behind the scenes and be the puppet masters.

Great catch. I like this a lot - Sam is no longer just a student at the Citadel; he's going to be a key member of the conspiracy. I've thought from the first book that Sam's quest is to find the old knowledge of how to kill dragons and thus stop Dany. But now I think he's also going to play a key role in a maester civil war - the anti-magics vs. the use-it-for-ourselves.

Great topic, Bianca.

[LittleDragon]

Great theory, thank you for this, bianca! Yes, very much possible that the Citadel has its special interests in Westeros and they use masters for their own purposes. Especially if we take into consideration that people usually cannot read in Westeros' society (including nobles cannot read), so masters can have a huge influence on events and decisions as monopoly of knowedge and information. If a noble cannot read and write, his master can write anything unchecked into his mailings for exemple.

[Lord Martin]

This is an awesome topic. I agree the Citadel is likely behind a lot more of what is going on in Westeros than meets the eye.

How about the role of the obsidian candles? We are told they allow the users to communicate across the globe and can even be used to give others visions and dreams. I wonder who the Maesters could be giving visions to? Are there factions within the Citadel and who is really in control there?

I could see a few people being controlled by the maesters. Mel comes to mind as she often has visions and often gets them mixed up or wrong. Lots of others across the world have had visions too, Quaithe for instance. Could the maesters be behind even more than we know?

[eyeheartsansa]

I don't know where this fits in, or it fits anywhere at all, but to me it's very interesting that Maester Marwyn is the same maester who taught Miri Mazdur a bunch of stuff.

[Hasfast]

Cold Mist, I'm no mod, but I'd not be glad if you faced a ban for not using the Spoiler tag. The only forum in which you can publish content about A Dance with Dragons without that tag is in the forum dedicated exclusively to that book.

Now

Satin as the Perfumed Senechal is a possibility, but I'm seeing him as a more conspicuous type of character, not really important for himself. And for what we know, Quaithe's prophecies might be concerned exclusively to Dany, and she hasn't been to the Wall, she's oblivious of the existence of Jon Snow or his steward. When she warned her about the Senechal, I think that she meant Reznak was to poison the locusts to have her killed... now that I think of it, Reznak might be the Harpy himself, and Hizdahr his puppet.

"No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

Glass Candles in the Citadel. The Flux. Victarion and Moqorro. Tyrion and Connington. Quentyn and Aegon. Reznak.

Presumably, this means that all of them wish her ill, or will do so eventually. Victarion has a horn that can rob her of her dragons (no good), and the second one is a red priest with very sinister powers and an absurd precision for foretelling with his fire (Greater even that Melisandre's, I daresay). Tyrion only wishes Casterly Rock and revenge. Connington is an extremely shrewd commander who will not see kindly on having a second pretender to the Throne if his friend's child is on the line. Quentyn... well... we know just how trustworthy he turned out to be. Aegon, either he's a fake or he will take his aunt even less kindly than Connington.

And Reznak... if he's the Harpy, which as of now I'm very inclined to believe, then he's responsible for all the mischief that Dany had encountered while in Meereen. I'm also quite sure that he's also the one wishing for the dragons to die, and he's certainly in league with the Green Grace and the rest of the noble families in the city, if not the other slaver cities along the Bay. Pretty strong evidence not to trust him, I'm sure.

I'm wondering just how Marwyn will proceed on getting close to Dany. I'm thinking that he might contact

Barristan first, or maybe he'll expect her in, or even lead her to Asshai by the Shadow

Lots of what I said there was extremely off-topic, sorry, xDDD. D.R.

[Shaggydog Stark]

Cold Mist, I'm no mod, but I'd not be glad if you faced a ban for not using the Spoiler tag. The only forum in which you can publish content about A Dance with Dragons without that tag is in the forum dedicated exclusively to that book.

Now

Satin as the Perfumed Senechal is a possibility, but I'm seeing him as a more conspicuous type of character, not really important for himself. And for what we know, Quaithe's prophecies might be concerned exclusively to Dany, and she hasn't been to the Wall, she's oblivious of the existence of Jon Snow or his steward. When she warned her about the Senechal, I think that she meant Reznak was to poison the locusts to have her killed... now that I think of it, Reznak might be the Harpy himself, and Hizdahr his puppet.

"No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

Glass Candles in the Citadel. The Flux. Victarion and Moqorro. Tyrion and Connington. Quentyn and Aegon. Reznak.

Presumably, this means that all of them wish her ill, or will do so eventually. Victarion has a horn that can rob her of her dragons (no good), and the second one is a red priest with very sinister powers and an absurd precision for foretelling with his fire (Greater even that Melisandre's, I daresay). Tyrion only wishes Casterly Rock and revenge. Connington is an extremely shrewd commander who will not see kindly on having a second pretender to the Throne if his friend's child is on the line. Quentyn... well... we know just how trustworthy he turned out to be. Aegon, either he's a fake or he will take his aunt even less kindly than Connington.

And Reznak... if he's the Harpy, which as of now I'm very inclined to believe, then he's responsible for all the mischief that Dany had encountered while in Meereen. I'm also quite sure that he's also the one wishing for the dragons to die, and he's certainly in league with the Green Grace and the rest of the noble families in the city, if not the other slaver cities along the Bay. Pretty strong evidence not to trust him, I'm sure.

I'm wondering just how Marwyn will proceed on getting close to Dany. I'm thinking that he might contact

Barristan first, or maybe he'll expect her in, or even lead her to Asshai by the Shadow

Lots of what I said there was extremely off-topic, sorry, xDDD. D.R.

Looks like I will be off topic too...lol.

I really liked the Satin theory because it was so different and because it is possible.

You know the problem I have with Quaithe's prophecy is that some of it does not come true or does not work.

"Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

If we are to translate the prophechy literally, then as you have mentioned it would be interpreted as follows:

1- the pale mare would be the plague (okay this came true)

2-Kraken and dark flame would be Victarion and Moqorro (this could be true because of the threat to the dragons, we have to wait and see)

3-lion and the griffin would be Tyrion and Connington. Except Connington went to Westeros instead and Tyrion never actually met Dany.

4-Sun's son and mummer's dragon would be Quentyn and Young Griff (except Young Griff/Aegon went to Westeros instead and Quentyn died which makes him a threat to nobody)

The other problem I have is why can't Dany trust any of them? Quentyn and Tyrion I think would have made excellent allies if one hadn't died and the other not sold into slavery.

As for Victarion sure he may be a threat but if she is shrewd she can even use him and more importantly he brings with him a fleet of ships which she is in sore need of. Each one of these three (Tyrion, Quentyn and Victarion) offers things she needs, if she is thinking of returning to Westeros.

I agree about Reznek wanting the dragons to die and maybe even being behind all the mischief, I don't trust him either but maybe he is not the "perfumed seneschal" mentioned in the prophecy, because the rest of the prophecy does not make sense.

So we are either interpreting the prophecy incorrectly and it actually means something completely different than what we are led to believe OR Quaithe has an agenda of her, mainly to keep Dany from reaching Westeros and gaining allies.

I don't know how Marwyn will fit in all this but right now I don't think Dany is returning to Mereen but heading for Vaes Dothrak, so maybe Barristan is Marwyn's only course. It's all such a mess with Mereen under siege as well and the dragons roaming around wild. Still its fun to think of the different possibilities :)

My apologies as well for being really off topic here :blushing:

[dragginstoned]

Hmmm... I hadn't thought of the Direwolves as harbingers of magic (At least the Winter magic... the "Ice" part of the Song), but it IS valid.

Good point, direwolves havent been seen south of the wall for about the same amount of time that all the dragons have been gone.

Connected?

[bianca]

So I'll go a bit off topic too...

There's a lot of controversy around Quaithe's prophecy, mainly because some of it doesn't seem to come to happen at all, given that griffin and mummer's dragon went off to Westeros. Anyway, I can see the reasons why Dany shouldn't trust all of the people mentioned by Quaithe. The only one I don't really understand why she shouldn't trust is Tyrion. But then again, that is assuming he is the lion. We know of at least one other lion lost in the east, Gerion Lannister, who is currently missing on a quest after Brightroar (the Lannister's valyrian steel sword).

With that being said, I'd like to mess this theory around a little bit by giving another two possibilities for the "perfumed seneschal":

1- The Selaesori Qhoran: its name can be translated as "the fragrant steward" and it is known that at least two people in it were after Dany.

2- Reek: according to Roose Bolton, Reek, before being given to Ramsay, bathed three times a day and wore flowers in his hair but always smelled appalling, being born that way. Now, we know that that is not the same Reek we have today. But who's to say how is Theon going to smell and what's going to be his part in the treats between Daenerys, the ironborn and the northmen?

[blackseer]

On topic

There was a thread that discussed the possibility of maester Walys (the one who counseled for Rickard Stark) being archmaester Wargrave's (the old crazy one who tends the crows in the Citatel) son. The discussion went on about the possibility that the maesters plotted a grand alliance between most of hte great houses through marriage. The alliace consisted in the marriages of: Brandon Stark with Catelyn Tully, Robert Baratheon and Lyanna Stark, Jaime Lannister and Lysa Tully and the fostering of Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon in the Eyrie. The purpose was to form an alliance sans Targaryens and eventually overthrone them. Obviously, it didn't go as planned, but the Targaryens did fall

off topic

The reason I believe Quaithe told Dany not to trust any of them was because she wants her to go east first. All of the ones she mentioned plan to take her west, but we know that Quaithe already asked her to go east to reach west. If this shadowbinder is somehow similar to Melisandre, she will control Dany as best she can, so planting a distrust in this characters would be a good way to do it.

[Hasfast]

On topic

There was a thread that discussed the possibility of maester Walys (the one who counseled for Rickard Stark) being archmaester Wargrave's (the old crazy one who tends the crows in the Citatel) son. The discussion went on about the possibility that the maesters plotted a grand alliance between most of hte great houses through marriage. The alliace consisted in the marriages of: Brandon Stark with Catelyn Tully, Robert Baratheon and Lyanna Stark, Jaime Lannister and Lysa Tully and the fostering of Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon in the Eyrie. The purpose was to form an alliance sans Targaryens and eventually overthrone them. Obviously, it didn't go as planned, but the Targaryens did fall

off topic

The reason I believe Quaithe told Dany not to trust any of them was because she wants her to go east first. All of the ones she mentioned plan to take her west, but we know that Quaithe already asked her to go east to reach west. If this shadowbinder is somehow similar to Melisandre, she will control Dany as best she can, so planting a distrust in this characters would be a good way to do it.

Both the theories you put here are very valid. The one about Quaithe's motives is very probable indeed. In that case, "Trust" would be well swapped with "Listen to", so that none of those men sway her to return with them, and in that, the "prophecy" actually makes a lot of sense, since each and every one of those mentioned wanted to wed her and/or make her return to Westeros, a thing that Quaithe finds unsuitable, and quite frankly so do I. D.R.

[maarsen]

I have been thinking about the dragons dying out after getting progressively sicker and weaker. Could it be that the citadel is playing a very long game? Then I realized not only dragons were getting poisoned. Could the increasingly bad behaviour of the Targ rulers be a result of poisoning also?

[Ashara_Dayne]

I do believe the Citadel is against magic in general, and was likely against the Targaryen because of their link to magic. I also think not every maester is fully aware of this plotting, being merely used by the "grey sheep" as informers and also working in educating the nobility (an thus the smallfolk) into thinking in a way that is properly aligned with their worldview.

I really enjoyed reading the topic indicated by Hasfast. It got me thinking about the origins of the maesters and their order. We tend to think of them as an Andal institution, but they do show the Valyrian sphinxes and now I'd like to throw a new spice to the mixture: the house Hightower.

Here is what we know about them:

- they are one of the oldest houses from Westeros, dating back from the Dawn of Days, therefore being descendants to the First Men;

- to this day, they are one of the most powerful houses in Westeros, despite being vassals to the Tyrells;

- they never took part in any known war, never even fighting the Andal's invasion;

- they were integral in the foundation of the Citadel and continue to be patrons of both the Citadel and the Faith.

Hypothesis:

- The Citadel is somehow an institution with First Men (and maybe children of the forest) wisdom? (it seems unlikely, given their view on magic);

- The Citadel is a mean to an end, this being house Hightower part on the game of thrones: trying to control Westeros through the maesters;

Yeah, you see, I am really sort of paranoid. But I like it.

I am kind of with you in the paranoia. I felt parallels between the Maesters of the Citadel and the Freemasons (over the Benedictine monks in this case) because of arcane or occult or at the very least obscure knowledge, unknown allegiances, unknown agenda and a very well established power in all the Houses in the realm.

[Skahaz mo Kandaq]

I think the Citadel is just part of the whole Game. They're just one more faction trying to play at the game. In their case, it's about ideology. Just because they don't believe in magic/Others doesn't mean those things doesn't exists. The Citadel is just like all the other players, they're playing the game and do not have all of the information. No single person or group has all of the information. Some in the group, like Marwyn, have taken it upon themselves to explore out of the box. The majority like Leuwin and Pycelle have pretty much kept in line with the Citadel's ideologies. The game serves a purpose in that it determines the distribution of power and resources. It's also detrimental in that when taken too far, it creates instability and a lack of unity. But the need to push their agenda might have made them shortsighted like everyone else.

[Roadside Rose]

So according to Maester Marwyn, the maesters at the Citadel are responsible for the end/death of the Westerosi dragons.

Then again it is said that Faceless Men contributed to the Doom of Valyria, and thus the end of dragons.

So are the FM in cohorts with the maesters at the Citadel?

I also read the Perfumed Seneschal = Reek theory.

Interesting!

[lacunajilly]

While I think Marwyn's words have to mean some sort of plot against magic living within the Citadel, I also think that this plot would be wide spread and yet also contained to a small group of people in the Citadel. There is no way anyone in Westerosi suspects this plot and in order to achieve their goals the Citadel would have to keep it that way.

From what we have seen all of the major houses rely heavily on the Maester system. Tywin the only major Lord who doesn't seem to rely on a Maester under his own roof does in fact use the services of a Maester. He just prefers to utilize Maesters in service elsewhere al la Grand Maester Pycelle since he is a sly devil. If any Lord felt that their Maester was trying to be manipulative rather than provide helpful advice things would go downhill quickly. Also don't forget loyal son's of high born families enter into the Maester system and then go back to work for their own house, these people could not be actively aware of any sort of grand plot or goal.

Additionaly, at one point upon hearing news about Danny, Maester Aemon insists she must have a Maester to guide and instruct her. Surely if he was aware of any sort of anti Targaren or even anti dragon element within the Citadel he wouldn't be so insistant.

I think what we have with the Citadel is a very subversive group of people who have been playing the long game. They are social enginering and they are doing it by first educating people to do what they want and believe their actions are only logical. Thus many of the Maesters doesn't even realize they are a pawn, carefully assigned to Lord's based on their temperment. This sort of education would mirror the education that Arya is receiving from the Faceless Men. She has already been told she must surrender everything of herself so that the FM can fill her with only their ideas. What is going on at the Citadel is the same but not as direct and could easily involve the same core people.

One of the things I am most looking forward to is the continuation of Sam's story for surely it will show us the inside of Citadel. One thing is certain if there is a plot at the Citadel Sam is sharp enough to catch wind of it and not want to be involved in it.

[GhostC]

great post, and it all holds weight...shaggydog stark said something that really made me think though, it was along the lines of the maesters controlling communication through the ravens, made me wonder if the "pink letter" was sent by a master to lure jon snow to his death at winterfell (maybe they know of his(potentially) Targaryen blood) and his possible PTWP status, the hooded man in winterfell could've been a maester...just a random semi-crackpot

[GhostC]

sorry to be so off topic, but I've read the theories on pretty much every possible thing and I was excited to find one that was bringing up new possibilities in my mind lol all of this talk also made me think that maybe Quaithe is either a projection somehow through the house of the undying (if anyone at all still remains there) or that she's in some way working to get Dany to Old Valyria where some crazy mystical destiny shit goes down....there must be something there and it would go a long ways towards explaining the "east to go west" statement

[BearIslander]

Dunno if anyone posted this here, but I'm nearly sure some maesters were behind the Summerhall tragedy. It's possible that Ser Duncan died with his king and prince while trying to save and protect them against some kind of plot hatched there. And then a great fire was made to hide the evidence.