The northmen inside and outside Winterfell. Conspiracy? The GNC - The Grand Northern Conspiracy

[Eyron]

Based on what?

The Ironbron quite comfortably held Moat Cailin but only lost it down to Euron pulling out most of the troops and the Boltons wanting to retake it. The Crannogmen with their poison darts were an inconveniance at best.

I agree, we have very little to go on when it comes to the crannogmen.

And Moat Cailin did stand well against both crannogmen and Ramsay as far as I remember, but it would have fallen to Ramsay when their supplies had run out, it can not be defended from the south and north at the same time.

[voodooqueen126]

I'm not 100% sure that the guy in Winterfell is the real Whoresbane Umber. Whoresbane got his moniker in Oldtown, where he studied to be a maester, so there's no chance he's illiterate. Yet the man calling himself Whoresbane signs documents by drawing the Umber sigil, the mark of an illiterate man. Roose might not have seen Whoresbane for a number of years (and Ramsay probably never met him before), so an Umber cousin might be impersonating him. Or, GRRM keeps telling us that personal objects can be used to make a glamour, and "Whoresbane" never takes off that greasy bear jerkin. Maybe the real Whoresbane has been dispatched to help rescue the Greatjon, and he and Crowfood are playing a deeper game than we realize. Just an extra wrinkle.

crackpot.

Whenever a person who has worshipped the Old Gods touches a glass candle it burns (showing him as a magic user), so the Maesters give him some sort of amnesia so that no magic user has access to any of the Citadel's knowledge.

[Lady of Long Lake]

I'm not 100% sure that the guy in Winterfell is the real Whoresbane Umber. Whoresbane got his moniker in Oldtown, where he studied to be a maester, so there's no chance he's illiterate. Yet the man calling himself Whoresbane signs documents by drawing the Umber sigil, the mark of an illiterate man. Roose might not have seen Whoresbane for a number of years (and Ramsay probably never met him before), so an Umber cousin might be impersonating him. Or, GRRM keeps telling us that personal objects can be used to make a glamour, and "Whoresbane" never takes off that greasy bear jerkin. Maybe the real Whoresbane has been dispatched to help rescue the Greatjon, and he and Crowfood are playing a deeper game than we realize. Just an extra wrinkle.

Ohhh great catch! I missed that interesting clue!

[daenerys snow]

I agree, we have very little to go on when it comes to the crannogmen.

And Moat Cailin did stand well against both crannogmen and Ramsay as far as I remember, but it would have fallen to Ramsay when their supplies had run out, it can not be defended from the south and north at the same time.

so the part about them all being sick from the water and the crannogmen's poisoned darts means nothing, eh? swamp ninjas will fuck up anyone there they don't want there. it won't be instantaneous , but it will happen.

[Eyron]

so the part about them all being sick from the water and the crannogmen's poisoned darts means nothing, eh? swamp ninjas will fuck up anyone there they don't want there. it won't be instantaneous , but it will happen.

Moat Cailin can't be defended from the south and north at the same time. With troops holding the north road (sacrificing some to the crannogmens poison) supplies could have been brought to them.

I know the water had gone bad, but all they needed was supplies.

As far as we know the crannogmen did not want the Ironmen there, but they did not defeat them by themselves (maybe they could have, we don't know that though). The Ironmen were abandoned by Victarion and had no reinforcements or supplies coming their way, and Ramsay cut them off. The crannogmen could of course have known that no help was coming and did not bother to finish them off, but as I said we have very little information on them so we don't know. What we know is that Ramsay could not take it easily despite the very few Ironmen that defended it, that is why he sent Theon to speed things up.

[daenerys snow]

true cutting off supplies is devastating to any fighting force and the crannogmen could have easily taken out any bound for moat cailin via the swamps. moat cailin is ruins and is defensible from north and south but what about east and west? take the boltons out of the equation and the ironmen would have eventually been wiped out slowly by the crannogmen.

[Eyron]

The causeway is only north-south bound, but it is possible the crannogmen can close in from the east and west by boat or some way only they know, the bog on the east and west sides can't be crossed by any others in any case. From what we have seen we don't know what kind of force they can muster though. The towers lie at the northern end of the swamp. We have not seen the crannogmen leave the swamp forests yet but they could do that and surround Moat Cailin so it all depends on the outside support. I don't think the crannogmen is a major military force outside their own territory, especially against knights in armor, horses and wagons.

I like to think that the crannogmen are a force to be reckoned with but so far we have not seen anything to prove it.

[Ghost Rider]

As far as we know the crannogmen did not want the Ironmen there, but they did not defeat them by themselves (maybe they could have, we don't know that though). The Ironmen were abandoned by Victarion and had no reinforcements or supplies coming their way, and Ramsay cut them off. The crannogmen could of course have known that no help was coming and did not bother to finish them off, but as I said we have very little information on them so we don't know. What we know is that Ramsay could not take it easily despite the very few Ironmen that defended it, that is why he sent Theon to speed things up.

I had got the impression that it was implied that the Ironmen at Moat Cailin were doomed anyway. They were grasping at straws when trusting Theon. They were desperate. They were in a sorry state, they couldn't have put up much of a fight. Ramsay probably didn't know for sure how strong the Ironmen would still be. Even if he knew they were weak, he was going the smart way about it. Why risk his own men, if he can just ask for their surrender? Of course the treacherous way he went about it, will ensure that nobody's going to trust the Bastard of Bolton anytime soon again. If he lives that long. :drool:

Maintaining supply lines in a hostile country is never going to be easy, exactly because they can be undermined by the type of guerilla actions the crannogmen excel in. If the Ironmen had been still in full force, they would need even more supplies. And it won't be doing much for their morals if their foragers are picked off one by one.

[Eyron]

Yeah they were doomed anyway, because they were few, because they had no outside support and faced the crannogmen in the south and Ramsay in the north, but we don't know if Victarion and his host would have been, unless cut off by Ramsay.

And Theon was surprised to see how few Ironmen there were since they had put up such a great fight for the northmen. He took pride in that.

As I said, Ramsay wanted to speed things up by sending Theon, this way was faster and he got it done before Roose came back. So as to why risking his own men, and doing the smart thing, that is exactly what I meant. These Ironmen were doomed either way.

Had the full Ironmen host stayed, we don't know what would have happened. Supplies coming in from the north could have been possible without Ramsay there, they could have an outpost further away north (out of the Neck's swamps) doing the foraging and managing contact with the outside support, they would have needed armored men and horses and the crannogmen would have been outside their territory along the north causeway. That is the reason I think it is possible to defend Moat Cailin against the crannogmen.

The Ironmen took Moat Cailin meaning they could reach it without much problem, why were they able to do that? Defending it would be the easier thing. The crannogmen can neither siege it properly (building seige towers and raise them and at the same time being in the line of fire, without armor) or engage in open field battle along the way, from what we have seen.

The crannogmen could employ a different strategy, or get support from other northmen, but we have not seen that yet. I hope they can and will but it is not a certain thing, that is all I am saying.

[Lord Littlefinger's Lash]

The Frey's whole story revolves around Robb and his fellow northern lords that were murdered at the Red Wedding actually violating guest rights. Manderly getting the Frey's to attack him is a way a sowing doubt about their "honorable" tale. I also have believed for a while that Manderly was trying to force Roose to "jump the gun", and send forces out against Stannis. Wasn't the original plan to sit in the castle and let Stannis break himself against the wall? Manderly picking a fight with the Frey's forces Roose to not only send the instigator (Manderly) out into the cold, but the instigated (Freys), since their brash reaction has many of the Northern lords saying "You want us to be their friends?"

I like the idea of the warhorns outside the walls being a signal to Manderly. Look at this way....if you want to beat the Boltons and the Freys, the easiest way to do that is to seperate them. Manderly just accomplished that. Manderly and forces outside Winterfell wipe out the Freys, while loyal Northerner inside Winterfell take down Roose and Ramsay. Then they can all regroup inside Winterfell and defend against Stannis. That would also presumably take away Stannis' main forces of the clansmen.....

This will make the first 100 pages of WoW a awesome. Maybe the warhorn was the Thenns?

The Frey's whole story revolves around Robb and his fellow northern lords that were murdered at the Red Wedding actually violating guest rights. Manderly getting the Frey's to attack him is a way a sowing doubt about their "honorable" tale. I also have believed for a while that Manderly was trying to force Roose to "jump the gun", and send forces out against Stannis. Wasn't the original plan to sit in the castle and let Stannis break himself against the wall? Manderly picking a fight with the Frey's forces Roose to not only send the instigator (Manderly) out into the cold, but the instigated (Freys), since their brash reaction has many of the Northern lords saying "You want us to be their friends?"

I like the idea of the warhorns outside the walls being a signal to Manderly. Look at this way....if you want to beat the Boltons and the Freys, the easiest way to do that is to seperate them. Manderly just accomplished that. Manderly and forces outside Winterfell wipe out the Freys, while loyal Northerner inside Winterfell take down Roose and Ramsay. Then they can all regroup inside Winterfell and defend against Stannis. That would also presumably take away Stannis' main forces of the clansmen.....

This will make the first 100 pages of WoW a awesome. Maybe the warhorn was the Thenns?

If Roose is dead, I don't see Stannis attacking winterfell or any other northmen. The noerthmen may not like stannis letting wildlings into the realm but The Others rising is good reason and wall would have been broken if not for Stannis.

[TheWanderer]

Alright, first post, but I just wanted to address some points.

On the North's loyalty to the Starks:

1) There must always be a Stark in Winterfell. Numerous characters say this and it's obviously a sentiment held by most (if not all) in the North. Look at the wording though, must, not should, not 'we would like it if' but must. There is no other conceivable option to the North.

2) The Stark's have ruled the North for something near 8000 years (IIRC) which is longer than recorded human history (in our world). Can anybody really say the effect that would have on the mentality of people in the North? This is not just some ruling family, this is the family that has ruled since the beginning.

3) The North remembers and what the North remembers of the Stark's is thousands of years of peace (relatively speaking) and prosperity (again, relatively speaking). What they remember of the Bolton's is a legacy of murder, treachery and fear.

4) Even the wildlings, basically sworn enemies of the Starks for thousands of years, respect the Starks and their significance to the North.

On the unity of the Northern houses.

1) As mentioned above, all the Houses have reasons for wanting to place a Stark in charge and a reason for wanting the Bolton's out.

2) In summer the lone wolf can survive just fine but when Winter comes, the pack must join together or they will all die. Ned teaches us this in aGoT, do we expect the North to forget?

3) The Northern lords may be somewhat paranoid when making their separate schemes but they would all be aware that their cause would be shared by the others and this would likely allow them to be slightly more open/trusting.

4) Communication between the various Houses (particularly Umber, Manderly, Glover and Mormont) is pretty much unrestricted before Wylam goes to Winterfell leaving plenty of opportunity to set the plan up.

On Rickon and Osha being in Skagos.

1) The North is a large and sparsely populated land. The idea that two individuals couldn't travel through it without passing within sight of towns (let alone castles) is pretty silly and provably false given Bran's journey north.

2) Osha has already traveled from somewhere beyond the Wall to near Winterfell, making a return journey shouldn't be anymore difficult. Plus we have no idea how she got past the Wall and a boat through the Bay of Seals seems like a fairly popular method.

On the military capability of the Cragonnmen.

1) Victarion's primary concern was removing the captains (so they could vote for him) not removing the generic troopers. He expected to hold the Neck with what he left, so it stands to reason (seeing as Victarion seems generally quite capable at military strategy) that the force was not insignificant.

2) When Theon frees the survivors they are in a very sorry state. There are little more than a dozen of them, they are commander-less, their water is poisoned, they have no contact between the different towers (and little amongst their own), they are clearly terrified of the cragonnmen (being hesitant to open doors or keep watch). It seems to me that should the cragonnmen actually wanted to take the forts from them they could have done so with ease.

3) The cragonnmen don't seem to care that much who actually holds the forts. Remember that the causeway is the only way a conventional army can traverse the Neck but it is in no way the only way the cragonmen can maneuver.

And some additional points (slightly more crackpot).

1) How much do the Northmen actually hate the wildlings? Not a single House responds to Maester Aemon's beg for aid. This despite the fact that the mountain clans and Umbers both have not insignificant forces within a few days march of the wall. Conversely the mountain clans do respond to a summons to a wildling marrying into a Northern House and don't show the violent hatred we've been led to expect from them. Indeed the Old Flint seems impressed by Jon's decision to make this marriage. There is quite a lot of wildling blood in the clans (and on Skagos) and the North in general, and quite a lot of Northmen blood in the wildlings.

2) It would seem to me that Howland Reed has a move he hasn't made yet. What exactly he's cooking up isn't clear but it's almost certainly pro-Stark, Howland was one of Ned's best mates and risked his children's lives to help Bran. Also worth noting is that Jojen is a greenseer but doesn't really seem to think that his abilities are all that odd, despite the fact that most of the others (in Winterfell) dismiss them as 'the stuff of fairy tales'. This suggests to me that magic is more common, and potentially more powerful, in the Neck than in the bulk of the North. This would make it likely that Howland's ace will be quite perfectly timed, as he has at least some access to pretty accurate soothsaying.

3) I would also think that magic is more common, and stronger, in the northern areas of the North. The mountains and Skagos would be prime candidates in my mind. I think this is a likely reason why the mountain clans were so willing to let Bran (at the time the heir apparent to their kingdom) pass through their lands and across the wall, they knew that he had some greater purpose to serve. It also suggests to me that the Skagosi Houses/clans might be more willing to serve/aid Rickon as he is a warg (and a prince, surely they must have some kind of prophecy about that).

[Jory]

If Roose is dead, I don't see Stannis attacking winterfell or any other northmen. The noerthmen may not like stannis letting wildlings into the realm but The Others rising is good reason and wall would have been broken if not for Stannis.

Yeah, I don't get the Stannis hate in this thread either. He took Deepwood Motte and gave it back to the Glovers. He wants to put a Stark in Winterfell. The only reason he's attacking Winterfell is to save Ned's girl. These aren't the actions of the grand enemy that Northmen are going to waste time fighting. Remember that Stannis' men never once fought Northmen. He's an ally - one that's partly of convenience - but if the Northmen are secretly trying to sabotage Stannis and destroy him I'll find that really strange.

[Dimadick]

The Royces, (First men, related to the Starks) Bronze Yohn knighted Harry the Heir. His bannermen Coldwater, Shett and Tollet.

The Royce of the Gates of the Moon, a cadet branch of the family, had a marital alliance to the Starks. But the current leaders of the family have no Stark blood. The Stark-Royce marriage resulted in three daughters. Their current descendants are part of Houses Corbray, Waynwood, and Templeton.

The Royce of Runestone, the main line of the family, have no known relation to the Starks. We only know that Yohn Royce once rejected a marital alliance to the Lannisters and had hopes of marrying Lyssa Tully. We might also guess that Yohn is not a fan of Loras Tyrell, because Loras killed one of his sons.

Perra Royce was the first wife of Lord walder Frey and several of the Freys familiar to us are descendants of her. Stevron Frey, Emmon Frey, Aenys Frey and all their known descendants. Which might give an incentive for a renewed Frey-Royce alliance.

The Waynwoods, (related to the Starks) Lady Waynwood is Harrys protector. The Hardyngs are bannermen.

The Waynwoods are also related by marriage to the Freys. Walton Frey, Sandor Frey (13 years-old), and Cynthea Frey (10 years-old) are the results of two separate Frey-Waynwood marital alliances.

House Redfort, (First men) related by marriage to the Royces,

This House was in favor of the Vale joining the Stark-Tully rebellion under Robb. Mychell Redfort, youngest son of the House, may be keeping Mya Stone as a mistress. A bastard daughter of Robert Baratheon. Which might come into play if there is a shortage of trueborn Baratheons.

House Templeton, (related to the Starks) a knightly house with a big host.

Unknown quantity at this point. No outstanding alliances to other houses.

House Belmore, Marwyn Belmore got degraded from Captain of the guards by Littlefinger. He was put in service as guard to the upjumped Royces of the Gates of the Moon now.

Benedar Belmore, current head of house, has apparently sold his loyalty to Petyr Baelish. But he is known as a corrupt man and could sell his loyalty again. The House used to have a marital alliance to the Arryns. But Elbert Arryn, only son of this union, got killed along with his best friend/kinsman Brandon Stark. They have no known relation to Robert Arryn.

House Hunter.

At this point this house seems bound to self-destruct. Lord Eon Hunter was murdered by one of his sons. Currently two of the three sons are suspects for the murder and Petyr expects that more kinslaying will follow as a result. The Hunters are related by marriage to the Freys. Janyce Hunter is the wife of Edwyn Frey and mistress of Black Walder Frey. Walda Frey (9 years-old) is the only known descendant of this union.

[Eyron]

Alright, first post, but I just wanted to address some points.

Nice first post! Welcome to the board :)

On the North's loyalty to the Starks:

<snip>

On the unity of the Northern houses.

<snip>

Very good points on these matters. I think the Starks do have a very special status that can't be compared to any other house, or ruler. And it is hard to imagine what psychological impact that has on the northern houses and their sense of loyalty.

On Rickon and Osha being in Skagos.

1) The North is a large and sparsely populated land. The idea that two individuals couldn't travel through it without passing within sight of towns (let alone castles) is pretty silly and provably false given Bran's journey north.

2) Osha has already traveled from somewhere beyond the Wall to near Winterfell, making a return journey shouldn't be anymore difficult. Plus we have no idea how she got past the Wall and a boat through the Bay of Seals seems like a fairly popular method.

Osha and co making it through the north I completely agree, it's entirely possible and not unlikely at all. The issue here would be how they managed to get to Skagos, in a time we know storms were wrecking ships in the area. A small boat would have less chance of crossing the sea and to get to wherever they set out for (it's very possible they didn't intend to go to Skagos specifically) and it's a rather long sail from coast to Skagos. If they traveled by a larger ship, they would have needed someone willing to harbor a direwolf... One could argue that Wex, being used to ships and sailing, were the one who helped them, but on what ship? And how did he return on his own?

I haven't gone back and read all the posts about this matter earlier in the thread, but I think what most objected to was that Wex was able to follow Rickon, Osha and Shaggydog all the way through the north, on his own, being a ironborn without much knowledge of life in the wilderness in the woods, without being found out.

the military capability of the Cragonnmen.

1) Victarion's primary concern was removing the captains (so they could vote for him) not removing the generic troopers. He expected to hold the Neck with what he left, so it stands to reason (seeing as Victarion seems generally quite capable at military strategy) that the force was not insignificant.

I'm not sure Victarion had any encounters with the crannogmen at his stay at Moat Cailin, it's not mentioned. He took it from the small force of northmen Robb left behind by surprise. He took the fleet back with him to the Iron Islands and left a small force to hold Moat Cailin to prevent the northmen's return from the south, and we know that only a small force is necessary to hold a stronghold under seige. Of that force 63 remained to follow Theon to yield to Ramsay. Ramsays men had attacked three times and they had not been able to drive the ironmen out.

My impression is that the crannogmen had not appeared before Victarion left, and I also had the impression that Victarion abandonded them, after he got Eurons new directives, even though he probably had other plans when he left Moat Cailin. The men left behind says to Theon that Victarion had promised to return, with a new force, a thousand men. When he left his intent was to continue Balon's plan, it was his motivation at the Kingsmoot too, so I think he did mean to go back and finish what he started. The men left behind were not numbered to hold Moat Cailin for a longer period of time, at least they didn't have to be, since Victarion would return soon. I think it's more likely that Victarion took as many with him as possible so he would have the iron fleet to back his claim if things turned ugly at the kingsmoot.

2) When Theon frees the survivors they are in a very sorry state. There are little more than a dozen of them, they are commander-less, their water is poisoned, they have no contact between the different towers (and little amongst their own), they are clearly terrified of the cragonnmen (being hesitant to open doors or keep watch). It seems to me that should the cragonnmen actually wanted to take the forts from them they could have done so with ease.

I think the problem for the crannogmen is that they don't use armor, they are vulnerable to arrows. They could not take Moat Cailin by attacking it, if the force holding it had archers. The way I think they succeeded was to let the ironmen use up their arrows on Ramsay's men, and then wait for the supplies to run out and the poisonous water to have effect, cutting off the causeways, at least from the south through the bog. It seems that is what they were doing when Theon enters.

3) The cragonnmen don't seem to care that much who actually holds the forts. Remember that the causeway is the only way a conventional army can traverse the Neck but it is in no way the only way the cragonmen can maneuver.

I think the crannogmen want the northmen to hold it, they let northmen be when they went south and the Reeds are bannermen to the Starks, as is Roose Bolton (at this point in time), which means they would help even the Boltons to it. The ironborn are the enemy, Ramsay is their ally.

We could speculate that they don't approve of the Boltons, but from what we have seen at the point of time of the surrender of Moat Cailin they do, and they left Theon be when he was sent to treat with Kenning and those left. What happened at Winterfell, Ramsay's take-over, is probably not known to the crannogmen. According to himself Jojens dream revealed that the sea would come over the walls of Winterfell, the ironborn would take it. He had no knowledge of Reek/Ramsay's deceit that would come later, or so it seemed to me, so Howland probably had little reason to suspect the Boltons to be turncloaks.

I don't think they have such magical powers that sometimes are ascribed to them. Jojen says he has greendreams, and that seems to be rare, he only had them after being seriously ill from a fever. Howland Reed does not seem to have them himself since he acted on Jojen's dreams - changing his plan (at least as to send his children to Bran), not his own. You later wrote that they didn't seem to think this was anything strange, and that seems to be the case, but it says little about it being common.

[Eyron]

Yeah, I don't get the Stannis hate in this thread either. He took Deepwood Motte and gave it back to the Glovers. He wants to put a Stark in Winterfell. The only reason he's attacking Winterfell is to save Ned's girl. These aren't the actions of the grand enemy that Northmen are going to waste time fighting. Remember that Stannis' men never once fought Northmen. He's an ally - one that's partly of convenience - but if the Northmen are secretly trying to sabotage Stannis and destroy him I'll find that really strange.

Stannis could change for the better, but as far as the northmen know, he burns their gods and invades their lands. He is the means to an end to them, and that is to put a Stark back in Winterfell. I don't think they care much what happens to him after that, unless he changes and start respecting their gods, and lets them rule themselves, then they may want to help him for real since he would be the best man sitting the throne in their view.

The part I bolded is not what Stannis motivation is. His plan was to fight the Boltons and their allies, not to save Arya. Freeing Arya from her wedding to Ramsay was just a bonus he promised to Jon if he defeated the Boltons. His reason to fight the ironmen as Deepwood Motte was a part of the strategy Jon informed him of, not even Stannis own plan, and I don't think it will have much effect on what the north think of him. It was not out of kindness that he did it, he did it because had he not restored it to the Glovers - the whole north would have become his enemies in a second. This is very plain to read in ADwD in Jon's chapter where he gives advice to Stannis (p. 218, UK edition). The preview chapter from TWoW can't be discussed here of course, but that chapter makes me think there is a chance things will change.

The reason he wanted Jon to take Winterfell and the name Stark is because he wanted more castles in the north and men at his side, it was a bribe. Stannis does not care about the Starks, he even said Lord Eddard was no friend of mine to Jon when he asks him to give him more castles at the Wall. He wants to restore the Starks for his own cause, to have the north united and an ally to himself.

Stannis wants the Wall's castles to grant his loyal men, as their own keeps, something that would sting in the eyes of every northman. Later on in ADwD though it seems he is becoming a friend to Jon, but not to the Starks in general.

If Jon had not given him good advice about how to defeat the Boltons, Stannis would be trapped between the walls of the Dreadfort and the Bolton troops, because that would have been the result of his own strategy. His great commander skills are not very useful in the north and that points to what we have been told before - the north cannot be held by a southerner.

And besides the northmen already have a king, they know there are Starks still alive so their king is out there whoever it may be, and conveniently they have left loopholes in their sworn fealty to Stannis.

[Lord Bear Mormont]

Right Before Theon and Jeyne jumps off the outer wall he hears a warhorn from the north of Winterfell. Not the drums as before so I'm guessing Umber is no longer alone out there. It got me to thinking about the other lords and ladys present at Winterfell, are they really bound to Bolton and Freys by hostages? The one we know for sure is Umber and they have sided already, Whoresbane with Bolton and Mors with Stannis.

I think a smart move from the Northmen would be to attack as soon as the Freys are starting to come through the gate. The Freys would have Manderly at their back, the gate could be kept open by people on the inside and the Boltons would be trapped. That is why I think that we will see Winterfell under attack early in TWOW. But where do the northern houses present at Winterfell stand? And are they prepared to kill their host? All those who are at Winterfell are bound by the law of guest right. At least Manderly seem to care enough about that to wait until his Frey guests had departed before killing them (I assume they are dead, pork pie? Yeah sure).

I have a hunch this is why Roose Bolton sent the Freys and Manderlys men out to meet Stannis (he thinks) while he sit safely inside, with hostages.

We later learn that Stannis' host were still trapped in the snow some days march away from Winterfell so the warhorn belonged to someone else.

The northmen that to me seem to be loyal (comparatively) to Roose Bolton, besides his own bannermen are:

Lady Dustin

Lord Locke

The Ryswells

One of the wild cards of the northmen is old Lord Locke.

I noticed in a reread of Davos chapters that Lord Locke has someone at Manderlys court, who expressed his opinion about Ramsay being a monster. This Locke person is unknown to us but GRRM bothered to give us details of his coat of arms, the crossed bronze keys on white and purple.

It suggests Old lord Locke is in on the plot with Manderly, and perhaps other northmen too. We don't know of any heirs, and the man is very old, so maybe he has little to loose by going against the Boltons.

On the other hand the Locke at Manderlys court could be a spy for Bolton.

Lady Dustin is of uncertain loyalty but some things she did speaks for her conspiring against Bolton.

I always thought it strange how Lady Dustin sought out Theon to talk, and always revealing so much. Her pointing out how craven she thinks Manderly really is made me suspicious. Why is she even interested in talking to Theon? Maybe she hopes to conceal the plot against the Boltons, thinking Theon feeds the information back to Ramsay. I think she really hated Eddard, but she loved Brandon so she may have a soft spot for Starks still. She definitely hates Ramsay for killing Domeric and she is not too happy with Roose Bolton for making Ramsay his heir. So if I was her I would think better a Stark as liege lord, who would be in debt to me for securing him Winterfell and restoring his family to it, than a Bolton hated by everyone.

The quarrelsome Ryswells...

Roose Ryswell sent out scouts but none of them returned. Maybe they were killed by other northmen around the area or they were sent out to them with information. Boltons own scouts seems to return so... However, since he is cousin to Lady Dustins father he could support Bolton for the hope of lordship.

Lady Dustins brothers Roger and Rickard Ryswell are also of unsure loyalty.

The other northmen in Winterfell does not seem to have any reason to be loyal to Bolton, since their houses are almost extinct or we know they are conspiring against Bolton like Manderly. Tallharts, Lady Cerwyn and Hornwoods should want Ramsay and Roose dead ASAP for what they have done to their families, and their remaining children are hostages to the Ironmen at Torrhen's Square, not the Boltons. Whoresbane Umber is there because of the Greatjon being hostage, but now that Mors is with Stannis it could well be useless to keep up pretence.

So, it's possible all of the north, or a large part of it, have secretly been conspiring against the Boltons, not just Manderly and Robett Glover. And it's possible they all have been informed about Robbs decree from Maege Mormont (who is alive according to her daughter Alysane) or Galbart Glover, and Rickons return from the dead from Manderly. At the end of ADWD Rickon could be sitting in White Harbour and a host of northmen could be surrounding Winterfell. Manderly has some ten thousand men waiting for his command and they could be closing in by now. That is what he could have been waiting for, munching away on his pies.

Roose is not stupid, he knows some plot exists. He could have a great backup plan that he thinks spoils all of the northmens efforts... Like ruining Robbs decree (if it says Jon=King) by telling the north that Jon let the King-Beyond the Wall live, despite all the trouble the northmen have with wildlings, despite all the hate that has been building up for thousands of years.

But Rickons claim he can't ruin. Or the fact that Theon and Jeyne got away and can destroy the Bolton claim to Winterfell by telling the north she is not Arya.

What do you think?

Great Post!

I would love to see Jon alive and lead an army of Giants, Mammoths, and wildlings against the Freys and Boltons. Not gonna happen but it would be cool to see.

[Eyron]

Great Post!

I would love to see Jon alive and lead an army of Giants, Mammoths, and wildlings against the Freys and Boltons. Not gonna happen but it would be cool to see.

Thank you! Yeah I'm not sure Jon will rise to lead an army south, but there is a little hope still, right? :)

That's actually what this thread was all about, finding some clues that strengthens the idea of the Starks influence prevailing, and giving us a little hope...

[Darth Vader's Bastard]

Whatever happens, I hope Ramsay gets flayed.

[Lord Damian]

Whatever happens, I hope Ramsay gets flayed.

This may be sick of me to say but I hope Ramsay and daddy Roose both get Raped by Giants, then flayed.

[Lord Bear Mormont]

Not sick more like justified!