Issue with the "three heads of the dragon"

[The evil little grumkin]

It's a false prophecy. It's actually a paradox that acts as a triggering event that sets in motion the birth of Dany and Jon. When Dany sees it the dragons are already born and their were already 3. It has no effect on her, 3 dragons are going to need three riders reguardless of her hearing that or not. You do not need to be a Targ to ride a dragon. You just need some Targ blood even Dany is not pure Targaryen she has Martell blood, Arryn blood, etc. fAegon would also have that and if Jon is Rhaegars son he also is mixed blood.

The false prophecy is not important for Dany it has done nothing to shape her life since she heard it. It is important to Rhaegar. It's the triggering event that changes everything. Without him seeing her you do not get the world where it is. He thinks it's his second daughter, so he tries to make a second daughter. Elia can no longer have children. It's a false prophecy that is really a paradox that acts as the major triggering event for the entire series. If he does not take Lyanna to make another baby, you don't get Jon, you don't get Dany and you don't get dragons. His mistake may very well save the world. It's not a prophecy it's cause and effect.

Agreed. I think the three, that are pointed out to us by the cookiecrumbs-trail at the moment are Dany, Aegon and Jon...

But as far as I see it until now, nobody said it needs a targaryan to ride a dragon. After all we know we might end up utterly surprised by finding out, it's enough to be a warg, like Arya, or just generally enthusiastic and good with anything currently undergoing a female egg-laying mood, like Tyrion would be with Vyserion. And since that fireprophet told Tyrion he'd be snarling amidst the fights, he's perhaps ... well, being a Lannister it's most likely called... hm... lion-warg... wait, there's certainly a word for it... man-lion...- sphinx?

A skinchanger certainly can get hold not only over his family's favourite animals.

Well, Arya is still a bit far away, perhaps Mormont would do? - His faher wasa skinchanger, why not him, too? they need to free them anyway, or the two remaining ones might get killed.

[Techelles]

Actually, I am suggesting that PtwP/THofD are from the same prophecy and that they are both equally old. When Aemon said that the error was made in the translation for ~1000 years, I thought that the person who made the prophecy didn't use Valyrian because it needed to be translated (I had assumed that the original prophecy was in Valyrian). Then I thought, why would a non-Valyrian use the term dragon? Then it hit me that the reason they used the term dragon is because that is exactly what they saw in the vision that produced this prophecy. Once I had this thought the, "...and the dragon had three heads" immediately followed. I think Aegon I took the three-headed dragon as House Targaryen's sigil because of the prophecy, rather than a prophecy being made based on the sigil. Aegon I may have thought himself the PtwP, but that is a topic for another thread. I know most of this is from my gut feelings and my gut is in no way proof of any of this, but that is why I'm trying to reconstruct the original prophecy. :)

Ah, I see. I like that we both went very different ways with that. I also like the idea that someone saw a literal three-headed dragon in a vision. Honestly, though, as far as I can tell, it wouldn't really have an effect on the end result whether the three-headed version was seen 1,000 or 100 years ago. I guess it is indeed a matter of gut feelings at this point. There are a few reasons I tend to think that THotD is more recent, but without more info they aren't quite deal breakers.

Incidentally, I'd really like to hear Rhaegar's thoughts on the relationship between the PtwP and the three heads. Aemon says that Rhaegar began to think that his son was the PtwP only after he saw a comet over KL on the night that Aegon was conceived. And if Dany's vision can be believed, it sounds like he thought that Rhaenys was one head and Aegon another. I suppose that means that prior to Aegon's conception, Rhaegar thought that Viserys was a head, and that the third would also come from Aerys and Rhaella. Or maybe he thought that his own first child was the third head, which would explain her name.

As for Aegon I thinking he was the PtwP, I've had that thought myself. Very interesting idea, and I wish we had more to go on. All I can really say about it is that it may have been among his reasons for bothering to conquer a continent.

We are mostly agreed, with the provision I would add the THofD prophecy here (as explained above). Also, I think the prophecy could be interpreted to be slightly more restrictive, referring only to the Dragon Lords and not all Valyrians.

Sure, it could very well have been more restrictive. Makes more sense that way, really. To be be honest, I almost wrote Valyrians/Targaryens, but I thought that seemed too restrictive, so Dragon Lords is a good compromise.

Here we are in the most disagreement (naturally since I move the THofD to an earlier period). For the prophecy that restricts the field of candidates to the Targaryen family I would use Daenys' dream. We don't know what her dream actually was, but if someone in your family has a dream that leads your family to move only 12 years before a cataclysmic event wipes out everyone else in your social stratum (Dragon Lords), then that is a pretty good indication that fate has something special planned for someone in your family (although that may not be a good thing). When I went back and actually re-read my original post I realized this was a second fundamental error that I had made as I had conflated PtwP and Daenys' dream although they happened ~600 years apart. :dunce:

It certainly would have been reasonable for the Targaryens to infer from their side-stepping of the Doom that they had some greater destiny. Whether Daenys was the one to specify what that was, I can't say. But if the PtwP prophecy was already well-circulated in Valyria, well...yeah, they probably figured out the broad strokes about the time that everybody else died. Yup.

So if the THotD bit did actually come after the conquest, it would mean it wasn't about narrowing down the possibilities, like most of the other prophecies. It just would have been an elaboration.

I kinda wish Apple Martini was around to weigh in. Haven't seen her post in weeks.

[lady m]

I have a question that I think is related, and I don't yet fully buy into anyone as AAR, but if it is Jon, could his NN be his Stark identity/Ned as his publicly proclaimed father? That seems the most precious thing to him in the world, and one he'd be loathe to give up. I've always thought that when he finds out it would still remain a secret, as he very much identifies as Ned's son.

GRRM has already said there will be another dance of the dragons, so with his focus being the impending crisis in the north, Aegon & Dany focused on battling it out for the throne, to try to focus & unite the country - he'd probably bring all of Robb's kingdom, The Vale & the Far North with him - assuming Aegon is unmasked as a Blackfyre, of course, but putting himself forth as Rhaegar's last living heir to try to rally the Kingdoms to what he sees as the true crisis.

I just wanted to ask, since all the prophecies seem interwoven in some respect.

[lady m]

Yay!! :cheers:

Seven against three and only two survived. I'm not sure what it means (if anything) but it's interesting. You have three members of the KG (who are normally seven) possibly protecting one of the possible three heads of the dragon (what a sentence, apologies). Me tired. Sleep now.

But three left, Ned, Howland & Jon.

If a person is warging the dragon, why does the dragon need a rider?

They don't, but no ones seen a warg for a lot longer than Targs have been in Westeros. They're just a myth from the north, just like The Others. But now they exist again, and greenseeers who are more powerful than wargs. That's the addition to the equation.

[Stark Wolf]

Also if he was naming he's children after the original aegon and sisters why would he have named Jon "Jon", rather than a male equivalent to visenya, not that I doubt r+l=j but kind of interesting.

Perhaps Jon is not his given name, but the one Ned gave him to insure he remain anonymous. Still waiting for more ToJ clarification.

[Techelles]

I have a question that I think is related, and I don't yet fully buy into anyone as AAR, but if it is Jon, could his NN be his Stark identity/Ned as his publicly proclaimed father? That seems the most precious thing to him in the world, and one he'd be loathe to give up. I've always thought that when he finds out it would still remain a secret, as he very much identifies as Ned's son.

GRRM has already said there will be another dance of the dragons, so with his focus being the impending crisis in the north, Aegon & Dany focused on battling it out for the throne, to try to focus & unite the country - he'd probably bring all of Robb's kingdom, The Vale & the Far North with him - assuming Aegon is unmasked as a Blackfyre, of course, but putting himself forth as Rhaegar's last living heir to try to rally the Kingdoms to what he sees as the true crisis.

I just wanted to ask, since all the prophecies seem interwoven in some respect.

That's a pretty interesting thought. I've always thought that NN was definitely going to be metaphorical. If publicly identifying as Rhaegar's son was the only way to unite and protect the realm, I can see Jon making that choice, and I can see him not liking it -- both because he does think of Ned as his father and because he wouldn't be any happier about shouldering that responsibility than Ned was about being named Hand.

Still, I expect he'll have to sacrifice a lot more than that before it's all said and done. To me, NN is the price one pays when one accepts enormous responsibility, and that price is continuously paid in all kinds of ways for the rest of one's life -- through the loss of cherished ideas, certainly, but also through the loss of friends and family, hearth and home, etc. I don't know exactly what Jon will lose, but I'd guess it'll be quite a lot.

[lady m]

Still, I expect he'll have to sacrifice a lot more than that before it's all said and done. To me, NN is the price one pays when one accepts enormous responsibility, and that price is continuously paid in all kinds of ways for the rest of one's life -- through the loss of cherished ideas, certainly, but also through the loss of friends and family, hearth and home, etc. I don't know exactly what Jon will lose, but I'd guess it'll be quite a lot.

Well, ever since I figured out his parentage I've kinda assumed he'd never reveal it. He's one of the few people who have no interest in sitting on a throne, nor being a Targ. What he wants is to be a Stark of Winterfell. Which is why I think he will both embrace and be incredibly touched by Robb's will. Robb's giving him everything he's ever wanted, and more. The main thing is he's giving him the right to be The Lord of Winterfell. I don't even think its the legitimacy as much as its the right to call himself Jon Stark and call Winterfell his home.

However, GRRM made Rhaegar his father for a reason, he also made him legitimate - I believe - for a reason. So it's coming out one way or another. I think Ned is a really great ||. He didn't want to be king, he gave it to Robert and went home to raise a family. He doesn't want to be Hand, but he feels he has to, so out of duty he does. Doing his job in an honorable way ultimately costs him his life, and starts events that lead to his heir & wife being murdered, his home being sacked, and his two youger sons fleeing for their lives, his elder daughter being accused of regicide, and his younger daughter now being trained as an assassin. Even Bran being paralyzed is directly caused by Robert wanting Ned as his Hand. That's a very steep price paid for doing his duty.

So I don't see him as getting a lot positive in return for making known he's Rhaegar's son. He can't just go home to Winterfell when the wars are over and leave the Seven Kingdoms behind for the North. He has to become king, assuming he lives, of a devastated country, probably the medieval equivalent of post World War I, at least. The Riverlands have been sacked and burned, the North is about to be invaded by supernatural ice zombies, and it's already in bad shape, and The Westerlands were pillaged by Robb. The Reach is about to be ravaged by the Ironborn, The Stormlands are likely going to be the focus of Dany v Aegon with dragons to burn lots of stuff, and Dorne is itching to get in that fight. The Vale will likely be affected by the 'dead things in the water' more than likely. He announces he's Rhaegar's son, all of this becomes his responsibility. And that's not even beginning to talk about the massive food shortages, either. Rebuilding will likely be the burden of who,ever rules, separate thrones ora central one, and it will likely take a generation to put things to rights with all the people that will be dead, and buildings that will have to be rebuilt.

I see little glory, but a very heavy burden if he announces his parentage. But I also think the reluctant king will be the only way Westeros will remain a single country. It won't be healed together by force from anyone.

[bent branch]

Ah, I see. I like that we both went very different ways with that. I also like the idea that someone saw a literal three-headed dragon in a vision. Honestly, though, as far as I can tell, it wouldn't really have an effect on the end result whether the three-headed version was seen 1,000 or 100 years ago. I guess it is indeed a matter of gut feelings at this point. There are a few reasons I tend to think that THotD is more recent, but without more info they aren't quite deal breakers.

Incidentally, I'd really like to hear Rhaegar's thoughts on the relationship between the PtwP and the three heads. Aemon says that Rhaegar began to think that his son was the PtwP only after he saw a comet over KL on the night that Aegon was conceived. And if Dany's vision can be believed, it sounds like he thought that Rhaenys was one head and Aegon another. I suppose that means that prior to Aegon's conception, Rhaegar thought that Viserys was a head, and that the third would also come from Aerys and Rhaella. Or maybe he thought that his own first child was the third head, which would explain her name.

As for Aegon I thinking he was the PtwP, I've had that thought myself. Very interesting idea, and I wish we had more to go on. All I can really say about it is that it may have been among his reasons for bothering to conquer a continent.

So if the THotD bit did actually come after the conquest, it would mean it wasn't about narrowing down the possibilities, like most of the other prophecies. It just would have been an elaboration.

I kinda wish Apple Martini was around to weigh in. Haven't seen her post in weeks.

You are, of course, correct in your observations. The THotD prophecy could have come at a later time (like the WWP) and it certainly doesn't need to be a restrictive prophecy. Also, in favor of your view is that Daeron's dreams take a structure were seeing a literal three-headed dragon would be completely in character. Additionally, Daeron is (was?) a very reliable seer (his prophecies always came true). I would be interested to know what other things you may have noticed that would place the prophecy post-conquest. At this point I am trying to keep an open mind.

What I am doing at this point is trying to find similar phrases in the novels that echo parts of prophecies that we have been given. I am coding them red=observed by someone associated with R'hllor, blue=someone from Westeros, and green for the phrase being used by someone not familiar with the prophecies (looking for possible foreshadowing here). I am hoping by doing this that I can see were there may be something known by one group and not the other or where conflation may have occurred. If I get really lucky I may be able to get some feel for time depth with some of the less clear prophecies (like THotD). I don't know whether this scheme has any chance of success, but I'm going to try. Knowing why Rhaegar thought the three-headed dragon would be his children would very interesting indeed. It would also be interesting to know if the prophecy was pre or post- conquest, because then we could have some idea if Aegon I and Rhaegar were possibly interpreting the prophecy in the same way (pre) or if Rhaegar felt the prophecy needed replicate Aegon and his sisters for some reason (post). Either way would be very revealing.

[lady m]

I realized I forgot something in what I posted last night, not just how special being Ned's son is to Jon, nor even how much that is how he identifies, but how that translates to trust and being well thought of by so many people. Something that was really a theme running through the Jon ADWD chapters was how much the wildlings held the Starks and Winterfell in esteem. You see it referenced several times by wildlings, Leathers is one off the top of my head, when we know Starks have been pretty hard on those that choose to live north of the Wall, and yet it's this common touchstone they share with the Stark Northmen, and the fact that Jon is Eddard Stark's son gives Jon a certain cache with them, like they already know they can trust the word of a son of Ned Stark. And we also see that The Norrey and The Flint to along with his plans because he's Ned's son. Finally, we see it with Stannis, who didn't really like Ned all that much, probably jealous, but knows Ned's honor was without question and that's how he raised his sons. He ends up basing his entire northern campaign around the advice Jon gives him based on what Ned would have done if given the same scenario because he's now seen that raised someone mush like Ned himself. Who he is, the son of Eddard Stark, it means something, it means a lot, really. Take that away and I insert Rhaegar I think it brings in some doubts to begin with of those who would likely be the most loyal to Jon. He's no longer son of The Ned, he's a product of the *kidnapping and rape* that started the events that led to the deaths of Rickard & Brandon, and the unified North wanting to first overthrow Aerys, and ultimately declare independence. Being Rhaegar's son is a huge complication, with unguaranteed results and a lot of responsibilities that go along with it.

[Techelles]

You are, of course, correct in your observations. The THotD prophecy could have come at a later time (like the WWP) and it certainly doesn't need to be a restrictive prophecy. Also, in favor of your view is that Daeron's dreams take a structure were seeing a literal three-headed dragon would be completely in character. Additionally, Daeron is (was?) a very reliable seer (his prophecies always came true). I would be interested to know what other things you may have noticed that would place the prophecy post-conquest. At this point I am trying to keep an open mind.

Nothing too subtle, really. The big one is just that we have no confirmed mention of the three heads of the dragon before the conquest. The conquest involved exactly three literal dragons and three human dragons, who then establish a royal dynasty with a three-headed dragon for its sigil. To me, it just feels like a case of cause and effect, of one foot before the other. To flip the events around would mean that the holy trinity of Aegon, Raenys, and Visenya (and their dragons) reflects the THofD prophecy by mere coincidence. Essentially, it just boils down to my impression of the conquest as a turning point, as something that the Targaryens look back upon as their finest hour, the moment in their history that would define them forever more. It just makes sense to me that the family's official identification with a three-headed dragon would predate a vision of such a thing because the adoption of the sigil marked a fundamental change in the idea of what it meant to be a Targaryen.

Also, for whatever reason, I have this idea of the cyclical nature of history, of events tapering to a point of extreme intensity, then exploding and restarting the cycle. If we think of this explosion as the Long Night, then a cycle is coming to its close, meaning that the world has been in the process of tapering to this point for a long time. To reflect this, the prophecies are revealed over time, with each new installment being more specific, and the closer we get to the prophesied event, the closer together the new prophecies are made. That is, they come in quicker succession and with greater precision, which gives them a sense of urgency and and the event a sense of imminence. So if we date the prophecies approximately 5,000, 1,000, 100, and 40 years ago, it feels as if we are making increasingly rapid progress towards a point of destiny. And history has definitely been quite intense in Westeros lately -- not only since the books began, but even since the conquest. The argument is based on nothing, I know, which is why I'd never try to use it to prove anything. It's just my gut.

So all of this isn't much, but it does slightly tip the scales in my mind simply because I can't think of anything to argue the other way. Not that it would be hard to prove that my points are inconclusive, mind you. They are. And like you, I am trying to keep an open mind. I'm not at all sworn to any of this.

What I am doing at this point is trying to find similar phrases in the novels that echo parts of prophecies that we have been given. I am coding them red=observed by someone associated with R'hllor, blue=someone from Westeros, and green for the phrase being used by someone not familiar with the prophecies (looking for possible foreshadowing here). I am hoping by doing this that I can see were there may be something known by one group and not the other or where conflation may have occurred. If I get really lucky I may be able to get some feel for time depth with some of the less clear prophecies (like THotD). I don't know whether this scheme has any chance of success, but I'm going to try. Knowing why Rhaegar thought the three-headed dragon would be his children would very interesting indeed. It would also be interesting to know if the prophecy was pre or post- conquest, because then we could have some idea if Aegon I and Rhaegar were possibly interpreting the prophecy in the same way (pre) or if Rhaegar felt the prophecy needed replicate Aegon and his sisters for some reason (post). Either way would be very revealing.

That is a righteous task. Curious, are doing this on a straight reread, or are you skipping around? If the former, how far have you gotten?

One more thing: don't we know why Rhaegar thought his children were the three heads? I'm just thinking of what Aemon says (admittedly, there could be much more to it): Rhaegar thought Aegon was the promised prince because he saw a comet over KL on the night he was conceived, and he (Rhaegar) seems to have been convinced that whoever the prince was, he needed two other heads by his side. Doesn't that mean that the real question to ask is why does Rhaegar associate the three heads with the PtwP? Which you and I have been answering by postulating that it was part of a previous prophecy. I guess it could have been something else, though. Some people seem to think that Rhaegar himself had some of those prophetic Targ dreams. I don't recall any hint of that in the text, though.

[bent branch]

That is a righteous task. Curious, are doing this on a straight reread, or are you skipping around? If the former, how far have you gotten?

One more thing: don't we know why Rhaegar thought his children were the three heads? I'm just thinking of what Aemon says (admittedly, there could be much more to it): Rhaegar thought Aegon was the promised prince because he saw a comet over KL on the night he was conceived, and he (Rhaegar) seems to have been convinced that whoever the prince was, he needed two other heads by his side. Doesn't that mean that the real question to ask is why does Rhaegar associate the three heads with the PtwP? Which you and I have been answering by postulating that is was part of a previous prophecy. I guess it could have been something else, though. Some people seem to think that Rhaegar himself had some of those prophetic Targ dreams. I don't recall any hint of that in the text, though.

I have an e-reader and I am doing searches on key words in the prophecies. Then I look at each time the word is mentioned and decide if it is associated with a prophecy or not. For instance, if the mention of the word shadow is in reference to a shadowcat I don't make a note of that occurrence of the word. However, if it is in anyway possible for the passage to be associated with a prophecy, I am making a note of where it is found, who observed or said it, who they observed or said it about or to. Once I have collected all of these references I am going to try to attach them to the prophecy they go to. For instance, if it is in reference to a dragon, I will separate them out into whether they are about raising dragons or in reference to the three heads. By doing it this way, I hope to get all the possible references in the novels. Once I have collected all these references and color coded them, I'll try to make some kind of sense of them. It's not guaranteed that this process will work, but it's worth a try. And having the search function makes it less likely that I will miss something as well as making the process move along more quickly.

Rhaegar's comment about the comet tells us why he thought Aegon was PtwP, but it doesn't tell us why he thought Rhaenys and "the one more" were the two other heads. We know that Rhaegar was wrong about the three-heads needing to be siblings. Also, Aemon seemed to be skeptical not only about Aegon being PtwP (even before he thought he died), but also about all of the heads needing to be siblings. I can't help feeling that there is something very revealing about the prophecy that would be explained if we knew why Rhaegar thought the three-heads were siblings.

[Techelles]

Rhaegar's comment about the comet tells us why he thought Aegon was PtwP, but it doesn't tell us why he thought Rhaenys and "the one more" were the two other heads. We know that Rhaegar was wrong about the three-heads needing to be siblings. Also, Aemon seemed to be skeptical not only about Aegon being PtwP (even before he thought he died), but also about all of the heads needing to be siblings. I can't help feeling that there is something very revealing about the prophecy that would be explained if we knew why Rhaegar thought the three-heads were siblings.

First off, sorry for taking so long to get back to you.

I guess I was just working from the assumption that Rhaegar associated the three heads with Aegon the Conqueror and his sisters. To me, that seemed like a fairly solid reason for Rhaegar to think that the PtwP needed siblings as the other two heads. So if the comet convinced him that Aegon was the PtwP, then the other two heads are automatically siblings.

But like you said, we know this isn't true, and Aemon never really bought it. Even on his death bed, he's lamenting that he himself can't be one of Dany's heads, and he certainly isn't her brother. In any case, it's obvious that the THotD bit was at least old and established enough for both Rhaegar and Aemon to consider it prophetical canon, so we're left wondering if the two men simply interpreted the same prophecy differently (it seems they didn't see eye to eye on the bleeding star, incidentally) or if Rhaegar actually had some additional information that Aemon either wasn't aware of or did not find credible. Maybe this is where the song of ice and fire came into play.

Crackpot ahead: My mind always goes back to the oath that Meera and Jojen swore to Bran, and I have to wonder about its origins. "We swear by ice and fire." Bran was confused by the oath, saying it's not the one he had learned...does that mean no other northerners swear that particular oath? Is it just a Crannog thing, or is the "ice and fire" phrase some kind of First Men/CotF lore that Howland picked up on the IoF? (Though I think we're told that the Crannogmen were always closer to the CotF than other First Men, so it's possible they'd been using the phrase long before Howland went south.) After all, the Children are "those who sing the songs of the earth." The song of ice and fire could be one of their songs.

What if Rhaegar, driven by a desire for new prophetic revelations, somehow made contact with CotF elements and learned the phrase and its prophetic relevance from them. Could he have gone to the IoF? It's already been suggested by many as a possible location for his supposed marriage to Lyanna. If this is the source, perhaps it could help explain why Aemon didn't mention it -- that is, he didn't know about it. Or if he did know about it, its source could be the reason he was skeptical. There's no real evidence for this, of course. All we know is that the phrase "ice and fire" only pops up in two places throughout the series: with Rhaegar and with the Reeds. (Well, Dany mentions it too, but only in reference to the vision of Rhaegar.)

Anyway, it certainly bugs me that no one else is talking about ice and fire or even about the THotD. When Dany tells Jorah about the three heads of the dragon, he only mentions the sigil of her house and says that the three heads were Aegon and his sisters. When asked about the song of ice and fire, he says it's no song he's ever heard. Not that I'd expect Jorah to have any special knowledge on these matters. Still, if someone else in the story would at least mention these things, I'd be so much more content -- just in general as a human being.

[Techelles]

I realized I forgot something in what I posted last night, not just how special being Ned's son is to Jon, nor even how much that is how he identifies, but how that translates to trust and being well thought of by so many people. Something that was really a theme running through the Jon ADWD chapters was how much the wildlings held the Starks and Winterfell in esteem. You see it referenced several times by wildlings, Leathers is one off the top of my head, when we know Starks have been pretty hard on those that choose to live north of the Wall, and yet it's this common touchstone they share with the Stark Northmen, and the fact that Jon is Eddard Stark's son gives Jon a certain cache with them, like they already know they can trust the word of a son of Ned Stark. And we also see that The Norrey and The Flint to along with his plans because he's Ned's son. Finally, we see it with Stannis, who didn't really like Ned all that much, probably jealous, but knows Ned's honor was without question and that's how he raised his sons. He ends up basing his entire northern campaign around the advice Jon gives him based on what Ned would have done if given the same scenario because he's now seen that raised someone mush like Ned himself. Who he is, the son of Eddard Stark, it means something, it means a lot, really. Take that away and I insert Rhaegar I think it brings in some doubts to begin with of those who would likely be the most loyal to Jon. He's no longer son of The Ned, he's a product of the *kidnapping and rape* that started the events that led to the deaths of Rickard & Brandon, and the unified North wanting to first overthrow Aerys, and ultimately declare independence. Being Rhaegar's son is a huge complication, with unguaranteed results and a lot of responsibilities that go along with it.

I agree that it is a huge complication with uncertain results. However, I tend to think that while Jon's status as Ned's son has indeed bought him a lot of credit in the north, his own strength of character and natural leadership are what really got and kept everyone's attention. Stannis, Norrey, and Flint wouldn't have given him a second glance unless he had actually proved his worth. So now that people know he's a capable leader, now that he has gained their respect in his own right, I doubt the north will throw him off if they find out that the Stark he's descended from isn't Ned after all. He still has Stark blood, he's still of the North, and he's still the man named in Robb's will -- in short, he's still the hard man the north needs, and he's still their best bet for independence, internal unity, and winning their wars. As far as the norther lords are concerned, Jon being Rhaegar's son is a complication that will have less effect on them than it will on Jon himself.

[VaramyrSixchins]

It may be worth examining just what the goals of AA/PtwP are in the prophecy. Aemon certainly thinks they are one in the same, presumably Rhaegar as well.

The end result of these prophecies are to wake dragons from stone and hold off the very vague "darkness".

We don't have any indication, that I can recollect, the Rhaegar was concerned about an overwhelming darkness or finding Lightbringer or even discerning what that may be. He seems to not put any special significance on any one sword, yet according to the tales, begins his martial training because something he read convinced him he had to be a warrior. Why did he seemingly give no credence to the Lightbringer aspect?

Contrast that with Targ family history in trying to hatch dragons, and the periodic obsession of family members with it.

I'm thinking it's possible that Rhaegar looked at his recent family history and concluded "waking dragons out of stone" was the primary purpose of the PtwP. From all the clues we have surrounding the events of Summerhall, the tragedy derived from a botched egg hatching attempt. Rhaegar, we know, viewed his birth on the same day fulfilled the salt and smoke bit of the prophecy. Given it was his grandfather that both (probably) started the fire @ Summerhall and FORCED the marriage of his parents in connection to the PtwP, it stands to reason that in Rhaegar's mind, he was destined to be the one to hatch dragons, in the sense of real, literal, dragons. I believe Aemon concurred that the PwtP would bring dragons back, as he specifically cited the fact that Dany had literal dragons as proof of her PtwP authenticity.

Now, if Rhaegar carried this a little further, he'd probably take Targ family history into account even further. GRRM's recent reading regarding the source book tells us that in the years between the founding of Dragonstone and the Conquest, every dragon died but the Black Dread, and two others hatched. These three were the ones eventually ridden during the conquest. If Rhaegar believed he was the one that would hatch a dragon, thus bringing them back from extinction, this single dragon would be parallel to the Black Dread, ie the only one. This is a possible explanation of his three head line of thought, as from one, two others come. The last time this happened, Aegon began the conquest. Thus, Rhaegar begins seeing parallels, and must prepare for not one dragon, but three. Later, when he puts the onus of PtwP on Aegon, he must, necessarily, have two more "dragons", ie children.

Clear as mud, right? :)

[Techelles]

snip

Given that we have so little information about Rhaegar, it's extremely difficult to pin down just what was and wasn't on his mind. His thoughts on Lightbringer, for instance, are simply not known. However, I'd say his concern with the coming darkness is a given considering how far he went to see that the prophecies were fulfilled. In any case, the things that we do know make it seem as if Rhaegar interpreted the dragons in the prophecy not as literal dragons but as Targaryens. He thought that his children would be the three heads of the dragon and that one of them, Aegon, was also the PtwP. Aemon apparently agreed that the three heads of the dragon were people, though he and Rhaegar may have disagreed as to exactly who the people were.

Like you said, Summerhall seems to have been an attempt to hatch live dragons from old eggs. Perhaps the catastrophic failure of such attempts is what caused Rhaegar and Aemon to make the interpretive leap from actual dragons to human dragons. I guess it's possible that Rhaegar thought his children, as the three heads of the dragon, would one day hatch some eggs, but we're never told anything about that.

So as far as we know, Rhaegar and Aemon never had any plans about actual dragons. Aemon's citation of Dany's dragons as proof of her status seems to be his reinterpretation of the prophecies in light of the news that the dragons truly exist. He mentions his "brother's dream," that is, Daeron's dream, which foretold the return of the dragons. My take was that whereas he and Rhaegar had formerly thought that the dragons were people, the birth of Dany's dragons confirmed the accuracy of the original interpretation of the prophecy -- that is, the interpretation that led to Summerhall.

[bent branch]

First off, sorry for taking so long to get back to you.

I guess I was just working from the assumption that Rhaegar associated the three heads with Aegon the Conqueror and his sisters. To me, that seemed like a fairly solid reason for Rhaegar to think that the PtwP needed siblings as the other two heads. So if the comet convinced him that Aegon was the PtwP, then the other two heads are automatically siblings.

But like you said, we know this isn't true, and Aemon never really bought it. Even on his death bed, he's lamenting that he himself can't be one of Dany's heads, and he certainly isn't her brother. In any case, it's obvious that the THotD bit was at least old and established enough for both Rhaegar and Aemon to consider it prophetical canon, so we're left wondering if the two men simply interpreted the same prophecy differently (it seems they didn't see eye to eye on the bleeding star, incidentally) or if Rhaegar actually had some additional information that Aemon either wasn't aware of or did not find credible. Maybe this is where the song of ice and fire came into play.

Crackpot ahead: My mind always goes back to the oath that Meera and Jojen swore to Bran, and I have to wonder about its origins. "We swear by ice and fire." Bran was confused by the oath, saying it's not the one he had learned...does that mean no other northerners swear that particular oath? Is it just a Crannog thing, or is the "ice and fire" phrase some kind of First Men/CotF lore that Howland picked up on the IoF? (Though I think we're told that the Crannogmen were always closer to the CotF than other First Men, so it's possible they'd been using the phrase long before Howland went south.) After all, the Children are "those who sing the songs of the earth." The song of ice and fire could be one of their songs.

What if Rhaegar, driven by a desire for new prophetic revelations, somehow made contact with CotF elements and learned the phrase and its prophetic relevance from them. Could he have gone to the IoF? It's already been suggested by many as a possible location for his supposed marriage to Lyanna. If this is the source, perhaps it could help explain why Aemon didn't mention it -- that is, he didn't know about it. Or if he did know about it, its source could be the reason he was skeptical. There's no real evidence for this, of course. All we know is that the phrase "ice and fire" only pops up in two places throughout the series: with Rhaegar and with the Reeds. (Well, Dany mentions it too, but only in reference to the vision of Rhaegar.)

Anyway, it certainly bugs me that no one else is talking about ice and fire or even about the THotD. When Dany tells Jorah about the three heads of the dragon, he only mentions the sigil of her house and says that the three heads were Aegon and his sisters. When asked about the song of ice and fire, he says it's no song he's ever heard. Not that I'd expect Jorah to have any special knowledge on these matters. Still, if someone else in the story would at least mention these things, I'd be so much more content -- just in general as a human being.

Don't worry about the time. I like to take time to compose my thoughts before responding, so no problem.

As far as your observation that the THofD appears to be a uniquely Rhaegar and Aemon interpretation, I would have to agree. The only other reference I found was one by Illyrio, which is categorized as green in my system because we are never told in the story that Illyrio is in anyway associated with the prophecies. As I suspect that Illyrio received his information from Varys, there is no clear indication that this interpretation is used by anyone other than Rhaegar or Aemon. As “the dragon” was mistranslated as “the prince”, I think the PtwP and AA prophecies became conflated. I am no longer so certain that the two prophecies speak of the exact same thing, although I do think they are related. While AA could be (and I think is) one of the heads of the dragon, I don't think this individual is the central figure with two sidekicks. Instead, I think each head of the dragon is unique and essential in their own right. The original mistranslation and conflation with the AA prophecy is what makes the one person with three aspects interpretation possible. At the time I made my original post I thought that the dragon being three people coming together was the most unlikely scenario, I now suspect that it may be the case.

If your thinking that the songs of the CotF are associated with the THotD is venturing into crackpot territory, then I am wandering there too. If the CotF dying out means they have to find human replacements for their greenseers (BR & Bran), then they may also need to find humans who can sing certain songs that need to be sung. This idea occurred to me when I read this passage (which I either overlooked before or had forgotten) from AGOT-Daenerys POV III:

Yet when she slept that night, she dreamt the dragon dream again. Viserys was not in it this time. There was only her and the dragon. Its scales were black as night, wet and slick with blood. Her blood, Dany sensed. Its eyes were pools of molten magma, and when it opened its mouth, the flame came roaring out in a hot jet. She could hear it singing to her. She opened her arms to the fire, embraced it, let it swallow her whole, let it cleanse her and temper her and scour her clean. She could feel her flesh sear and blacken and slough away, could feel her blood boil and turn to steam, and yet there was no pain. She felt strong and new and fierce.

Perhaps it is because I was looking at passages about dragons and how they might relate to the THotD and the song of ice and fire (as stated previously the only thing I think we are directly told about THotD), that this passage stuck out this time. We have been told that when a Targaryen dreams of dragons that those dragons represent a Targaryen and not a dragon (this is not always true, but true often enough that we should look for such an interpretation first). I had interpreted this passage as Drogon “calling” out to Dany, but this time I wondered about the song the dragon was singing and who the dragon represented. Since there are so few images in this dream, I think we must interpret the dragon's song as being one of “fire and blood”. And after considering the limited possibilities (Jon, Aegon, Drogon or Dany), I think the dragon represents Dany herself. After having this dream Dany becomes stronger and more determined. I am inclined to interpret this event as one of the heads of the dragon awakening. So, if we have a “song of ice and fire” and a “song of fire and blood” there are two songs of the three heads identified.

This, of course, made me think of Jon's dream at the beginning of his next to last chapter in ADWD. In that dream, Jon is wearing armor made of black ice and using a flaming sword. These are the elements that would be in a song of ice and fire, but does that dream represent the awakening of one of the heads of the dragon? There are no dragons or singing in that dream, but does there need to be? Also, I have re-read Jon's last three chapters in ADWD to see if I could detect any sign that he has been “awakened”, but I'm not really sure what to conclude about that. What do you think?

I than began thinking about what the third song was and I thought of Jaime's dream when he slept on the weirwood stump. This dream also contained the image of fire, in fact a flaming sword. However, Jaime's sword appeared to be more about light rather than heat. If I were to say this dream represented a song, I would say a song of fire and shadow. While claiming this dream to be an awakening dream may be a stretch (there is no dragon or singing in it either), Jaime does seem to be a changed man after this dream. He insists shortly after awakening that they return for Brienne and he begins to ruminate about what legacy he will leave behind. This was only the first dream that occurred to me, I will probably have to go back and read about other dreams to see if there are some that fit better. Also, it was Jaime's act that set Bran on the path to the CotF, so maybe Jaime maybe more connected to the old gods than we understand.

So, anyhow, I do think the THotD does have some connection to the CotF and their songs, including Meera and Jojen's oath to Bran, but I'm just beginning to put some of it together. I should say that I read a post on the forums that suggested Daenys' dream had been sent to her from a greenseer just like Bran's dreams had come to him. This has influenced me greatly. I've come to think that what makes the Targaryens special (and despite how hated they are by some on the forums, they are special), is that they can hear the song of the CotF singers. I know they are not first men or associated with the old gods, but I think they can hear them just the same. Perhaps it is hearing the songs that makes some of them crazy.

[VaramyrSixchins]

Given that we have so little information about Rhaegar, it's extremely difficult to pin down just what was and wasn't on his mind. His thoughts on Lightbringer, for instance, are simply not known. However, I'd say his concern with the coming darkness is a given considering how far he went to see that the prophecies were fulfilled. In any case, the things that we do know make it seem as if Rhaegar interpreted the dragons in the prophecy not as literal dragons but as Targaryens. He thought that his children would be the three heads of the dragon and that one of them, Aegon, was also the PtwP. Aemon apparently agreed that the three heads of the dragon were people, though he and Rhaegar may have disagreed as to exactly who the people were.

Like you said, Summerhall seems to have been an attempt to hatch live dragons from old eggs. Perhaps the catastrophic failure of such attempts is what caused Rhaegar and Aemon to make the interpretive leap from actual dragons to human dragons. I guess it's possible that Rhaegar thought his children, as the three heads of the dragon, would one day hatch some eggs, but we're never told anything about that.

So as far as we know, Rhaegar and Aemon never had any plans about actual dragons. Aemon's citation of Dany's dragons as proof of her status seems to be his reinterpretation of the prophecies in light of the news that the dragons truly exist. He mentions his "brother's dream," that is, Daeron's dream, which foretold the return of the dragons. My take was that whereas he and Rhaegar had formerly thought that the dragons were people, the birth of Dany's dragons confirmed the accuracy of the original interpretation of the prophecy -- that is, the interpretation that led to Summerhall.

I agree it's absolutely possible that Aemon was doing some retcon after Dany's dragon's hatched. It's just that Aemon specifically equates AA and PtwP before he knows actual dragons have hatched, just prior to telling Sam about his skepticism of Lightbringer. The mere fact that he has expectations surrounding Lightbringer tells us he's familiar with the sword's legend. It's just puzzling bc if he equates AA w the PtwP, presumably Rhaegar did too, since they had communications about it. Yet, we have no evidence that Rhaegar was really concerned with that portion of the prophecy. He gave great importance to improving his own martial prowess, and he was fighting a war against rebels, yet we hear nothing about any attempt on his part to forge, carry, or create the very weapon that this mythical PtwP was destined to wield. Why is this?

Mind you, I'm not closing my mind to the possibility that Rhaegar and Aemon thought the three heads to be Targs, but that begs the question just what exactly did they think these three Targs were supposed to DO? Again, what we know of the foretold destinies of these figures were twofold: Defeat the darkness w Lightbringer and wake dragons out of stone. With seemingly Rhaegar and Aemon giving no credence to the first, or at least taking no overt action to forge Lightbringer, we may have to ascribe their motivations toward the fulfillment of the second destiny, and given the Targ family history overall, and especially the generation or two IMMEDIATELY preceding Rhaegar, the possibility that he interpreted the prophecy in terms of hatching literal dragons can't be ruled out...

[Gentso]

According to Maester Aemon, the three heads are three people. Two prime choices for heads of the dragon have killed their mother in childbirth (Jon and Dany). Interestingly enough, Tyrion also killed his mother in childbirth. As Tyrion implies, all dwarves are bastards in their father's eyes. Is it reaching? : )

[Techelles]

I agree it's absolutely possible that Aemon was doing some retcon after Dany's dragon's hatched. It's just that Aemon specifically equates AA and PtwP before he knows actual dragons have hatched, just prior to telling Sam about his skepticism of Lightbringer. The mere fact that he has expectations surrounding Lightbringer tells us he's familiar with the sword's legend. It's just puzzling bc if he equates AA w the PtwP, presumably Rhaegar did too, since they had communications about it. Yet, we have no evidence that Rhaegar was really concerned with that portion of the prophecy. He gave great importance to improving his own martial prowess, and he was fighting a war against rebels, yet we hear nothing about any attempt on his part to forge, carry, or create the very weapon that this mythical PtwP was destined to wield. Why is this?

That's a good question. I definitely agree that both Aemon and Rhaegar were well aware of the prophecies. At this point, I think it's very possible that they did have an interest in Lightbringer and that we just don't know about it. Or perhaps Rhaegar interpreted Lightbringer metaphorically, like many people here on the boards. PtwP = Lightbringer? Dragons = Lightbringer? Just don't know, really. Now, though, I'm wondering if Rhaegar had any special thoughts about his friend Arthur's sword. It's a popular candidate for Lightbringer, though I'm not sold on it.

Mind you, I'm not closing my mind to the possibility that Rhaegar and Aemon thought the three heads to be Targs, but that begs the question just what exactly did they think these three Targs were supposed to DO? Again, what we know of the foretold destinies of these figures were twofold: Defeat the darkness w Lightbringer and wake dragons out of stone. With seemingly Rhaegar and Aemon giving no credence to the first, or at least taking no overt action to forge Lightbringer, we may have to ascribe their motivations toward the fulfillment of the second destiny, and given the Targ family history overall, and especially the generation or two IMMEDIATELY preceding Rhaegar, the possibility that he interpreted the prophecy in terms of hatching literal dragons can't be ruled out...

Again, good questions. I'm not ruling it out either, but if Rhaegar was interpreting the three heads of the dragon as three Targaryen siblings, I'm just wondering where more prophesied dragons came from. The only possibility I see is Daeron's dream, but it's unclear to me if Aemon and Rhaegar viewed that as just another iteration of the original prophecy, in which case the "return of the dragons" would be the same as the "three heads of the dragon." Then again, if they were viewed as separate prophecies foretelling different dragons, it would leave room for both interpretations: dragons=dragons and dragons=Targaryens.

So I'd say it is very possible that they planned to hatch three eggs. It would definitely answer the awkward question of what the three heads were actually supposed to do, and it'd be a better parallel with Aegon the Conqueror and his sisters, which seem to have been quite significant to Rhaegar. Do we know if the Targaryens had any dragon eggs in their possession at the time?

[Sheogorath]

Amen. I really only include her because it'd be petty not to and enough people still think she'll end up doing something of consequence.

I also don't think that "dragons" specifically means a literal dragon. I take the D&E approach — a dragon is a Targaryen. So in this reading, the actual existence of dragons is incidental/lateral and not tied into the prophecy directly.

Yes that's what it represents. My point is that this sigil in all likelihood is much, much newer than the prophecy, so it doesn't make sense to me that Rhaegar is using it to interpret/explain the prophecy. The prophecy would have been from way before Aegon landed with his sisters, so why is Rhaegar using them as a "blueprint"?

Ned named Jon, probably after Jon Arryn.

I like what you are saying. The only flaw could be that when making the sigil they knew about the pwwp, ancient Targaryens seemed to have been more educated ?

But your theory makes me feel better to be honest, I am soooooooooooooo Tired of guessing who the three heads could be !! So tired. but i cant rest now because it doesnt matter.... :uhoh: