Issue with the "three heads of the dragon"

[para]

I have some doubts whether Rhaegar would have interpreted the three heads of the dragon as three riders of actual three dragons, considering they were extinct when henwas around and they would have been unlikely to be solely ressurected by the power of Rhagar's reproductive abilities. So either he thought something else would happen that would bring back the dragons or he must have considered the dragon a flowery metaphor for something.

If he was right, then maybe the fact that there are three actual dragons running around has absolutely nothing to do with that three-headed dragon prophecy. It makes sense - if Lightbringer "the sword" can the NW then maybe the three-headed dragon could be an alliance between three Targaryens, for example. The dragon could be anything, as long as exists in three parts.

[Makes No Sansa]

I think another dragonlord dinasty will show up sooner or later...

[The King of the Night]

I have some doubts whether Rhaegar would have interpreted the three heads of the dragon as three riders of actual three dragons, considering they were extinct when henwas around and they would have been unlikely to be solely ressurected by the power of Rhagar's reproductive abilities. So either he thought something else would happen that would bring back the dragons or he must have considered the dragon a flowery metaphor for something.

If he was right, then maybe the fact that there are three actual dragons running around has absolutely nothing to do with that three-headed dragon prophecy. It makes sense - if Lightbringer "the sword" can the NW then maybe the three-headed dragon could be an alliance between three Targaryens, for example. The dragon could be anything, as long as exists in three parts.

Correct me if I'm wrong here but isn't waking dragons from stone a huge part of the PtwP/AA prophesy?

[Techelles]

...

The only other reference we have to work with is this from Aemon “The dragon must have three heads,” he wailed, “but I am too old and frail to be one of them. I should be with her, showing her the way, but my body has betrayed me.” This tells us that Aemon interpreted the prophecy as meaning three actual people. If Aemon was right and Dany is AA, then the three heads almost certainly refers to dragon riders. If Aemon was wrong, then maybe the three heads has something to do with Dany being the child of three. However, Melisandre’s flames showed Jon as AA. If Jon is AA, then the other two heads could be something else, perhaps even Ghost and the raven. (btw, The only reason Melisandre rejected Jon as AA is because he doesn’t have any Targaryen blood as far as Melisandre knows.) One other possibility is the “dragon” is AA and that it needs three heads or people before it is complete. In other words, three people coming together complete the prophecy. If this is the case, all three people will need to fulfill the prophecies individually. This would mean that Aegon is real. I am personally of the opinion that GRRM has written Aegon’s story in such a way that it is 50-50 as to whether Aegon is real. I will not be surprised either way he goes. However, if Aegon is not real, then I don’t think the idea of AA actually being three people holds up very well.

I really like the way you lay out the prophecies, but I do have a question about the bolded part. Do we know for sure that this is Mel's rationale? I was just rereading her POV for confirmation, but I didn't notice any real hints that might suggest this.

Lately I've been wondering just how much of a gap there is between the conclusions reached by Mel and those reached by Rhaegar and Aemon. Clearly Mel doesn't seem to be concerned with the three heads of the dragon, nor does she have knowledge of the woods witch. How sure are we that she even made the connection between AAR and House Targaryen? I don't remember her ever claiming that Stannis's Targ blood had anything to do with him being AAR.

Could very well be that my memory is just failing me. But I'd love a quote or something, if you have one handy.

[bent branch]

I really like the way you lay out the prophecies, but I do have a question about the bolded part. Do we know for sure that this is Mel's rationale? I was just rereading her POV for confirmation, but I didn't notice any real hints that might suggest this.

Lately I've been wondering just how much of a gap there is between the conclusions reached by Mel and those reached by Rhaegar and Aemon. Clearly Mel doesn't seem to be concerned with the three heads of the dragon, nor does she have knowledge of the woods witch. How sure are we that she even made the connection between AAR and House Targaryen? I don't remember her ever claiming that Stannis's Targ blood had anything to do with him being AAR.

Could very well be that my memory is just failing me. But I'd love a quote or something, if you have one handy.

Thank you for your kind words. I am both flattered and a little embarrassed, because I have recently become convinced that I made a fundamental error in my analysis. :blushing:

As far as the bolded part, Melisandre does not directly say that she has chosen Stannis at least partially because of his Targaryen blood. I based my conclusion that she does know about how the prophecy is connected to the Targaryens based on two separate conversations Maester Aemon has. The first is this one actually with Melisandre in the last Samwell POV-ASOS:

"Nightfires?" Bowen Marsh gave Melisandre an uncertain look. "We're to light nightfires now?"

"You are." The woman rose in a swirl of scarlet silk, her long copper-bright hair tumbling about her shoulders. "Swords alone cannot hold this darkness back. Only the light of the Lord can do that. Make no mistake, good sers and valiant brothers, the war we've come to fight is no petty squabble over lands and honors. Ours is a war for life itself, and should we fall the world dies with us."

The officers did not know how to take that, Sam could see. Bowen Marsh and Othell Yarwyck exchanged a doubtful look, Janos Slynt was fuming, and Three-Finger Hobb looked as though he would sooner be back chopping carrots. But all of them seemed surprised to hear Maester Aemon murmur, "It is the war for the dawn you speak of, my lady. But where is the prince that was promised?"

"He stands before you," Melisandre declared, "though you do not have the eyes to see. Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai come again, the warrior of the fire. In him the prophecies are fulfilled. The red comet blazed across the sky to herald his coming, and he bears Lightbringer, the red sword of heroes.

The second conversation is with Sam in Samwell POV IV-AFFC:

"No," the old man said. "It must be you. Tell them. The prophecy...my brother's dream...Lady Melisandre has misread the signs. Stannis...Stannis has some of the dragon blood in him, yes. His brothers did as well. Rhaelle, Egg's little girl, she was how they came by it...their father's mother...she used to call me Uncle Maester when she was a little girl. I remembered that, so I allowed myself to hope...perhaps I wanted to...we all deceive ourselves, when we want to believe. Melisandre most of all, I think. The sword is wrong, she has to know that...light without heat...an empty glamor...the sword is wrong, and the false light can only lead us deeper into darkness, Sam.

In the first conversation Aemon is challenging Melisandre to see how deep her understanding is of the prophecy. The second conversation is where we get to see Aemon's conclusion about how competent Melisandre is in her understanding of the prophecies. I interpret this passage to mean that Aemon believed that Melisandre does actually understand the prophecies as well as anyone, but like others before her she has allowed herself be misled by her hopes and fears. So from this I conclude that she does know that the prophecy refers to a Targaryen descendant and that she is taking Stannis' bloodline into account. This is, of course, my interpretation of these conversations and a reasonable argument could be made that I'm wrong.

As far as Melisandre being seemingly unconcerned about the three heads of the dragon, I think I have a partial answer for that and it relates to what I see as the fundamental error that I made in my analysis. The error I made was in interpreting this passage from Samwell POV IV-AFFC:

"...The error crept in from the translation. Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. The language mislead us all for a thousand years..."

While being so amazed that the prince that was promised could be the princess that was promised I missed the most important information in that passage. :idea: In the original, untranslated prophecy it was a dragon that was promised! With this realization, I have become convinced that the PTWP and 3-headed dragon prophecy are two halves of the same prophecy. They are one prophecy, not two. In a really bare bones way, I think the prophecy says, "There is a dragon who is promised and this dragon has three heads."

Since I came to this conclusion, I have been going through the books and finding all the little bits and pieces of prophecy we are given and have been trying to reconstruct the prophecy. While I am not done with this project, I have noticed something interesting about the prophecy I am reconstructing. It could be interpreted to refer to one person with three aspects or to three different people. This is just like people on the forums have been debating. I think Melisandre is interpreting the prophecy as one person with three aspects, since it seems she is trying to get Stannis to fulfill all three aspects. tbh, I tend to favor the prophecy meaning three different people, but I can definitely see it referring to only one person.

[A Crow Come Over]

While reading the other thread asking if Aegon could be the "third head of the dragon," something struck me.

I think it's a fairly reasonable assumption that Rhaegar, when he was interpreting the PTWP prophecy, had Aegon, Rhaenys and Visenya in mind. The three-headed dragon is the Targaryen family sigil and he named two of his children after two of the three conquerors. There's an idea that he was expecting his third child to be a girl, a Visenya.

But what do the three conquerors have to do with this prophecy? Is Rhaegar jumping to conclusions or seeing links where there are none, or was there something in the prophecy — the full extent of which we probably don't know yet, to be fair — to support his reading it that way?

The reason I ask is that the Targaryens took the three-headed dragon as their Westerosi sigil after the Conquering. And I suspect that this prophecy is much, much older than that. So is Rhaegar using a 300-year-old event/sigil to explain or interpret a prophecy that could very well be thousands of years old, not hundreds?

I also think that the three dragon-riders don't necessarily have to be the same as the "three heads of the dragon." It's one dragon with three heads, not three dragons with three riders. So Martin could, in theory, answer questions about possible dragon-riders, without those riders having to be "one of the three heads." Readers might interpret it that way — if Tyrion rides a dragon, he's one of the three heads — but I'm not sure the wording says what people think it says.

The more I think about this, the more I like the idea that it's one person (one dragon), with three different heads, i.e. three different aspects or identities. I volunteered the possibilities that these three aspects could be Dany being queen of Westeros, Slaver's Bay and Essos, or Jon being a Stark, a Targ and a Night's Watch man. You get the idea.

Mostly though it nags me that people are using Rhaegar's interpretation of the "three heads of the dragon" when it appears that his reading of the prophecy ties into something that happened probably a long, long, long time after the prophecy originated.

Isn't it a running theme of the series that people frequently misinterpret prophecies? I never put too much thought into a literal 3 person or 3 head paradigm needed to fulfill the prophecy either, but I do agree that ppl put too much stock into what Rhaegar says.

[TheButcherCrow]

While being so amazed that the prince that was promised could be the princess that was promised I missed the most important information in that passage. :idea:In the original, untranslated prophecy it was a dragon that was promised! With this realization, I have become convinced that the PTWP and 3-headed dragon prophecy are two halves of the same prophecy. They are one prophecy, not two. In a really bare bones way, I think the prophecy says, "There is a dragon who is promised and this dragon has three heads."

Since I came to this conclusion, I have been going through the books and finding all the little bits and pieces of prophecy we are given and have been trying to reconstruct the prophecy. While I am not done with this project, I have noticed something interesting about the prophecy I am reconstructing. It could be interpreted to refer to one person with three aspects or to three different people. This is just like people on the forums have been debating. I think Melisandre is interpreting the prophecy as one person with three aspects, since it seems she is trying to get Stannis to fulfill all three aspects. tbh, I tend to favor the prophecy meaning three different people, but I can definitely see it referring to only one person.

Very nice. The "three aspects" thing is super interesting as it links to the seven aspects of the divine, the seven who are one, that the Sept go on about. I really like this interpretation & the catch on the fact that it was a dragon being promised is pretty cool. On the other point I raised (seven/three). When Ned rides to the ToJ, they are "seven against three". Empty symbolism, coincedence, me going mental, what do you think?

[bent branch]

Very nice. The "three aspects" thing is super interesting as it links to the seven aspects of the divine, the seven who are one, that the Sept go on about. I really like this interpretation & the catch on the fact that it was a dragon being promised is pretty cool. On the other point I raised (seven/three). When Ned rides to the ToJ, they are "seven against three". Empty symbolism, coincedence, me going mental, what do you think?

Well, I don't think you're going mental. The symbolism is intriguing, although I will need to think about it (probably a lot) before I understand it. It is another interesting thought to ponder.

[J. Stargaryen]

Very nice. The "three aspects" thing is super interesting as it links to the seven aspects of the divine, the seven who are one, that the Sept go on about. I really like this interpretation & the catch on the fact that it was a dragon being promised is pretty cool. On the other point I raised (seven/three). When Ned rides to the ToJ, they are "seven against three". Empty symbolism, coincedence, me going mental, what do you think?

I hope you're not going mental, since I raised this point not too long ago myself. :)

[TheButcherCrow]

I hope you're not going mental, since I raised this point not too long ago myself. :)

Yay!! :cheers:

Seven against three and only two survived. I'm not sure what it means (if anything) but it's interesting. You have three members of the KG (who are normally seven) possibly protecting one of the possible three heads of the dragon (what a sentence, apologies). Me tired. Sleep now.

[Usrnmhsnomning]

One of the earlier posts made me consider; what if Aegon IS tptwp, and Dany is the 'mummers dragon, in that she isnt a fake, but merely the puppet of the mummer in question? I guess its hoping for too much; surely GRRM put too much emphasis on her to pull that switch. Still, you never know

[Techelles]

Thank you for your kind words. I am both flattered and a little embarrassed, because I have recently become convinced that I made a fundamental error in my analysis. :blushing:

No need to be embarrassed. I make fundamental errors all the time (see below). :) I admit, I hadn't really thought of it, either.

In the first conversation Aemon is challenging Melisandre to see how deep her understanding is of the prophecy. The second conversation is where we get to see Aemon's conclusion about how competent Melisandre is in her understanding of the prophecies. I interpret this passage to mean that Aemon believed that Melisandre does actually understand the prophecies as well as anyone, but like others before her she has allowed herself be misled by her hopes and fears. So from this I conclude that she does know that the prophecy refers to a Targaryen descendant and that she is taking Stannis' bloodline into account. This is, of course, my interpretation of these conversations and a reasonable argument could be made that I'm wrong.

I'd agree that a counterargument could be made, but I think you've built a pretty good case yourself. Still, I'd love to hear it from Mel. I hope she's around to react when Jon finds out about his daddy.

While being so amazed that the prince that was promised could be the princess that was promised I missed the most important information in that passage. :idea:In the original, untranslated prophecy it was a dragon that was promised! With this realization, I have become convinced that the PTWP and 3-headed dragon prophecy are two halves of the same prophecy. They are one prophecy, not two. In a really bare bones way, I think the prophecy says, "There is a dragon who is promised and this dragon has three heads."

Now this is extremely interesting. Do you think that these two halves of the same prophecy originated at the same point in time or that they developed independently and became conflated? In the OP, Apple Martini brought up the problem of the ages of the THotD and the PtwP prophecies, making the very reasonable assumption that the latter is far more ancient than the former. After all, Aemon says that the translation has been misleading people for a thousand years, yet House Targaryen only took the three-headed dragon as its sigil after the the conquest. (Now, though, I'm wondering if we know that last part for a fact. Offhand, I don't recall if it's actually canon. I guess it's possible that the sigil was designed in reference to the prophecy and not the other way around, but the fact that the conquest just happened to involve three dragons and three dragon riders seems to suggest otherwise.)

Anyway, if THotD and PtwP are actually two aspects of the same prophecy, it looks like they probably aren't the same age. Interestingly, when Aemon is talking about the translation error, he makes no mention of the three heads. That is, the THotD aspect is not specifically referred to as being ancient, whereas the PtwP (read: Dragon that was Promised) aspect is. When he does bring up the THotD, it's an isolated statement not explicitly connected to anything else. Perhaps GRRM separated these ideas in the text for a reason: they were also separated in time and origin. To make it work, we'd have to assume that the THotD prophecy developed after the conquest and that it then became conflated with the older prophecy to form the updated version known to Aemon and Rhaegar. If this is so, it seems likely that the origin was Daeron Targaryen, who dreamed that the dragons would return someday. Perhaps the THotD was a feature of that same dream. (Disclaimer: I haven't read D&E, so I'm not sure if anything in there contradicts this.)

Now, how to tie it in with the big picture. Seems to me that something like the following could work (borrowing a lot from you here):

1) The original AA prophecy is the oldest (Jade Compendium); it's very vague and does not give any real indication of where AAR will appear.

2) The PtwP prophecy connects AAR to the Valyrians by promising a dragon. We know from Aemon that it is at least 1,000 years old. (I wonder if all old Valyrians referred to themselves as dragons in the same way that the Targaryens do. Not that this theory requires it.) We know that House Targaryen has a history of prophetic dreamers; perhaps this trait was shared by other Valyrians, and the prophecy originated with a dream. Hell, maybe the dreamer was no random Valyrian at all, but a Targaryen ancestor. We know that Daenys Targaryen wrote Signs and Portents not long before the Doom; she's not quite ancient enough herself, but I expect it was another like her.

3) The THotD prophecy was introduced some time after the conquest by a Targaryen seer, perhaps Daeron. It connects AAR/DtwP with the Targaryen royal family via the sigil. (If it is a dragon that was promised, did the Targaryens supply the word "prince" themselves just because they are now royal? Possibly a hint that the prophecy was indeed reworked sometime after the conquest, say, when Daeron had his dreams?)

4) The Woods Witch prophecy (WWP) connects AAR/DtwP/THotD to the line of Aerys and Rhaella.

This breakdown would address the OP's original query as to why Rhaegar and Aemon were linking AAR/PtwP with the THotD and the WWP. And if Mel had knowledge of 1-3 but not 4, it would jive with her behavior up till now. I think it's fairly consistent, but I'm a little too tired to trust myself to catch my mistakes. If anyone spots any holes, please point them out.

So this is all just me trying to hash out how your new take on the prophecies could work. Does any of this sound accurate?

Since I came to this conclusion, I have been going through the books and finding all the little bits and pieces of prophecy we are given and have been trying to reconstruct the prophecy. While I am not done with this project, I have noticed something interesting about the prophecy I am reconstructing. It could be interpreted to refer to one person with three aspects or to three different people. This is just like people on the forums have been debating. I think Melisandre is interpreting the prophecy as one person with three aspects, since it seems she is trying to get Stannis to fulfill all three aspects. tbh, I tend to favor the prophecy meaning three different people, but I can definitely see it referring to only one person.

I guess I'm on the fence when it comes to interpreting the prophecies here...but if I felt like I was losing my balance on said fence, I'd probably fall off on the "three different people" side, too, just because we have several characters who potentially fit the bill. Also, I think you're right about Mel; if she is aware of the connection of AAR with the Targaryens, then the "three aspects" interpretation is the only explanation for her insistence on Stannis.

Anyway, I look forward to the results of your project. If you ever need someone to bounce ideas off of, consider me a volunteer.

Curious about one more thing. In your first post you said:

The only other statement in the novels that I think refers to this fourth prophecy is when Rhaegar says in the HotU, “…his is the song of ice and fire.”

Is there any change in how you think Rhaegar's words figure in to your new take on the prophecies?

[Ser Creighton]

Hey, hey well look at this. My kind of topic. Anyone mind if I jump in? If might, I have my own working theory on all of this.

[SeethemFly]

Also if he was naming he's children after the original aegon and sisters why would he have named Jon "Jon", rather than a male equivalent to visenya, not that I doubt r+l=j but kind of interesting.

Rhaegar was dead by the time Jon was named (if you believe R+L=J), so I think it was either Lyanna naming him or Ned. And they probably wanted to go for something nondescript. Calling him Rhaegar Snow or Viserys Snow or something like that would have meant he would have died before Ned had the chance to bring him back to Winterfell.

[Ser Creighton]

My own assumption on the three heads of the dragon is that it is a simple statement. I think Rhaegar actually sees an image of Dany. It's not part of the prophecy, he just had Aegon and he has a vision of Dany who he assumes is his own daughter. A second daughter, so he thinks it's his child and he is suppose to have another daughter. The dragon has three heads. I don't really think it's to complex and I believe it is why he wanted another child.

Now for the wood witch prochecy. That prophecy is really only a prophecy of the line. These two people when they get together will make the Prince.

Then the prophecy that Mel, Rhaegar, and Aemon all seem to be following. By the way someone asked if Mel talks about why Stannis. The answer is on the same page of Dance in which she sites the the full Prince prophecy to Jon. It has to do with Dragon Stone and such. But as for this prophecy the one that ends with waking dragons from stone. Well this prophecy seems to be more about Dragons than a warrior don't you think? I believe their is a mistake in the translation of Azor Ahai. I believe at some point the name become synonomis with Warrior of Fire or some such wording. The Targs on the other hand and I believe this goes back to Aegon V's father translate fire warrior as Dragon lord. I don't think this is actually a prophecy about Azor Ahai. Now I have thought may the Prince and Azor are two different things, maybe not. But I acutally feel this prophecy tells of the return of dragons by a dragon lord. Azor Ahai mistranslated to Dragon lord. Now they had some similar themes in them but the actual prophecy itself does not fit the legend of Azor Ahai.

This prophecy on the other hand is over 5000 years old and comes from the books of Asshai.

"There will come a day afer a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the red Sword of Heroes and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai, and the darkness shall flee before him."

You have two distinct prophecies. As any historian will tell you when dealing with old text. Use the earliest version you can find because it is the closest to the source material.

I believe in the books you are seeing two distinct prophecies being filled by two different people. Dany and Jon. The dragon has three heads I believe is a statement. Rhaegar using that first prphecy thinks the prince is brining back the dragons. He believes he has a vision whih is Dany (paradox) and sees what he thinks is his third child and thinks Aegon I and his 2 sisters. Rhaegar has made a mistake about something, he believes the wood witch prophecy is not about his father and mother but him. Even though we don't know what it is, it's clear he think he will father the Prince not his father. That's why he never considers his brother as an option as a prince or as the father of the prince or as the third dragon.

My personal beliefe is that no names where given with the prophecy and it went something like this. "When the first son of the ill dragon weds the stormlords queen of beauty and love the prince that was promised will come from this line. Or something to that effect. After that wheels are set in motion. Rhaegar was both right and wrong he just did not know it. The dragon did have three heads, his sister was the third head and as we know Dany woke the Dragons. What Rheagar also did not know is that he put events in motion that would lead to the rebirth of Azor Ahai, Jon. That's why even though Dany fulfilled a prophecy and woke the dragons we still see an Azor Ahai prophecy unfolding with Jon. Cause it's two prophecies about two different things.

3 dragon riders don't mean much, pretty much anyone can ride a dragon, it's not a Targ power, it's more about mastering the Dragon. In the books a dragon will except only one rider and that rider dare not mount another dragon cause that dragon will probably kill you. I believe Martin said it, you don't have to be a targ to ride a dragon. The dragon has three heads is not important in terms of dragon count or riders, or who is who's parent. It's important because of the events it set in motion. Rhaegar and Lyanna, that's when he left KL. He thought he needed another child, he thought he was fulfilling a prophecy. But if he does not do what he did, then you don't get Dany or dragon eggs, or the whole ritual she that occured when she woke them, and you don't get Jon. While trying to save the future, Rhaegar may have done that by pure accident. The future happens weather we like it or not, you can't control it, you can only accept that it will happen.

[sabrecmc]

I must admit that all of this is very interesting! When I read it initially, I read it as "the dragon" as being 1 "dragon," and I assumed that it was one person with 3 sort of faces (someone mentioned the Sphinx being the answer...kind of like that). I thought Dany first, but then Jon (Wolf, Dragon, Man), assuming he does one day warg a dragon or 3. It seems more magical and, well, just MORE, than 3 people who can ride dragons. Lots of people have ridden dragons (not in this series so much, but throughout the history of this world GRRM has created). It is special, sure, but not, as my 12-year-old self would say, "special-special." But, this is certainly all food for thought!

[a white raven]

Rhaegar probably interpreted the prophecy like he wanted to at that time, much like we folks do around here all the time.

:cheers: True that, hahaha

[Moon-Pale Maiden]

Here's another version.

"The Dragon must have three heads" refers to how the dragons can be controlled:

The first head: The Dragons own head

The second: The person that is riding the dragon

The third: The skinchanger that is warging the dragon

All this three "heads" must work in unison for the dragon to be controlled.

Edit: Come to think of it, when Dany subdued Drogon in ADwD, it was only to the extent that he let her ride him.

But Drogon went where he wanted, Dany had no control over that. She just had to go along for the ride.

So do we know about any Targs that was wargs? Well, Bloodraven certainly had Targ blood.

His skinchanger abilitys may have come from the Blackwoods, off course.

If a person is warging the dragon, why does the dragon need a rider?

[Ser Creighton]

It's a false prophecy. It's actually a paradox that acts as a triggering event that sets in motion the birth of Dany and Jon. When Dany sees it the dragons are already born and their were already 3. It has no effect on her, 3 dragons are going to need three riders reguardless of her hearing that or not. You do not need to be a Targ to ride a dragon. You just need some Targ blood even Dany is not pure Targaryen she has Martell blood, Arryn blood, etc. fAegon would also have that and if Jon is Rhaegars son he also is mixed blood.

The false prophecy is not important for Dany it has done nothing to shape her life since she heard it. It is important to Rhaegar. It's the triggering event that changes everything. Without him seeing her you do not get the world where it is. He thinks it's his second daughter, so he tries to make a second daughter. Elia can no longer have children. It's a false prophecy that is really a paradox that acts as the major triggering event for the entire series. If he does not take Lyanna to make another baby, you don't get Jon, you don't get Dany and you don't get dragons. His mistake may very well save the world. It's not a prophecy it's cause and effect.

[bent branch]

Now this is extremely interesting. Do you think that these two halves of the same prophecy originated at the same point in time or that they developed independently and became conflated? In the OP, Apple Martini brought up the problem of the ages of the THotD and the PtwP prophecies, making the very reasonable assumption that the latter is far more ancient than the former. After all, Aemon says that the translation has been misleading people for a thousand years, yet House Targaryen only took the three-headed dragon as its sigil after the the conquest. (Now, though, I'm wondering if we know that last part for a fact. Offhand, I don't recall if it's actually canon. I guess it's possible that the sigil was designed in reference to the prophecy and not the other way around, but the fact that the conquest just happened to involve three dragons and three dragon riders seems to suggest otherwise.)

Anyway, if THotD and PtwP are actually two aspects of the same prophecy, it looks like they probably aren't the same age. Interestingly, when Aemon is talking about the translation error, he makes no mention of the three heads. That is, the THotD aspect is not specifically referred to as being ancient, whereas the PtwP (read: Dragon that was Promised) aspect is. When he does bring up the THotD, it's an isolated statement not explicitly connected to anything else. Perhaps GRRM separated these ideas in the text for a reason: they were also separated in time and origin. To make it work, we'd have to assume that the THotD prophecy developed after the conquest and that it then became conflated with the older prophecy to form the updated version known to Aemon and Rhaegar. If this is so, it seems likely that the origin was Daeron Targaryen, who dreamed that the dragons would return someday. Perhaps the THotD was a feature of that same dream. (Disclaimer: I haven't read D&E, so I'm not sure if anything in there contradicts this.)

Actually, I am suggesting that PtwP/THofD are from the same prophecy and that they are both equally old. When Aemon said that the error was made in the translation for ~1000 years, I thought that the person who made the prophecy didn't use Valyrian because it needed to be translated (I had assumed that the original prophecy was in Valyrian). Then I thought, why would a non-Valyrian use the term dragon? Then it hit me that the reason they used the term dragon is because that is exactly what they saw in the vision that produced this prophecy. Once I had this thought the, "...and the dragon had three heads" immediately followed. I think Aegon I took the three-headed dragon as House Targaryen's sigil because of the prophecy, rather than a prophecy being made based on the sigil. Aegon I may have thought himself the PtwP, but that is a topic for another thread. I know most of this is from my gut feelings and my gut is in no way proof of any of this, but that is why I'm trying to reconstruct the original prophecy. :)

Now, how to tie it in with the big picture. Seems to me that something like this could work (borrowing a lot from you here):

1) The original AA prophecy is the oldest (Jade Compendium); it's very vague and does not give any real indication of where AAR will appear.

Agreed.

2) The PtwP prophecy connects AAR to the Valyrians by promising a dragon. We know from Aemon that it is at least 1,000 years old. (I wonder if all old Valyrians referred to themselves as dragons in the same way that the Targaryens do. Not that this theory requires it.) We know that House Targaryen has a history of prophetic dreamers; perhaps this trait was shared by other Valyrians, and the prophecy originated with a dream. Hell, maybe the dreamer was no random Valyrian at all, but a Targaryen ancestor. We know that Daenys Targaryen wrote Signs and Portents not long before the Doom; she's not quite ancient enough herself, but I expect it was another like her.

We are mostly agreed, with the provision I would add the THofD prophecy here (as explained above). Also, I think the prophecy could be interpreted to be slightly more restrictive, referring only to the Dragon Lords and not all Valyrians.

3) The THotD prophecy was introduced some time after the conquest by a Targaryen seer, perhaps Daeron. It connects AAR/DtwP with the Targaryen royal family via the sigil. (If it is a dragon that was promised, did the Targaryens supply the word "prince" themselves just because they are now royal? Possibly a hint that the prophecy was indeed reworked sometime after the conquest, say, when Daeron had his dreams?)

Here we are in the most disagreement (naturally since I move the THofD to an earlier period). For the prophecy that restricts the field of candidates to the Targaryen family I would use Daenys' dream. We don't know what her dream actually was, but if someone in your family has a dream that leads your family to move only 12 years before a cataclysmic event wipes out everyone else in your social stratum (Dragon Lords), then that is a pretty good indication that fate has something special planned for someone in your family (although that may not be a good thing). When I went back and actually re-read my original post I realized this was a second fundamental error that I had made as I had conflated PtwP and Daenys' dream although they happened ~600 years apart. :dunce:

4) The Woods Witch prophecy (WWP) connects AAR/DtwP/THotD to the line of Aerys and Rhaella.

Agreed.

Anyway, I look forward to the results of your project. If you ever need someone to bounce ideas off of, consider me a volunteer.

Curious about one more thing. In your first post you said:

Quote

The only other statement in the novels that I think refers to this fourth prophecy is when Rhaegar says in the HotU, “…his is the song of ice and fire.”

Is there any change in how you think Rhaegar's words figure in to your new take on the prophecies?

Thanks for the offer, I may just take you up on that. You've already been extremely helpful. :)

Finally, I still place the song of ice and fire statement with the THotD prophecy because that seems to be where it fits best, but I could end up changing my mind about that.