Quaithe & Aegon's legitemacy.

[Eejit]

Show me in the text where Quaithe says any of them will come to Mereen. Why can't it mean that soon Dany will come into contact with them?

I've seen you argue on other threads that "mummer's dragon" could mean any number of things besides fake dragon but apparently "soon comes x y and z" can only have one meaning and one meaning only. That seems pretty convenient.

Context is essential. Every other person who was to "soon come" either already has come to Mereen/Dany or apparently will early next book. Griff was scheduled to but changed his mind. The implication is blindingly obvious and inescapable.

[Bolivar]

I agree with OP, that it's weird she would say "Connington/Tyrion, someone else, Aegon..." as if he was coming separate.

I think it's a mistake to take Quaithe's prophecies as valid. Characters from Asshai are just trying to influence the world, they're not necessarily unquestionable. Melisandre has a scary ability to predict the future, but she couldn't see the King's Men sneaking out Edric Storm. Similarly, Quaithe was wrong - Connington and Aegon are not coming to Dany. They're at Storm's End, and Aegon's potentially already dead. Daenerys figures it out early on that Quaithe just wants her to go the place where she's from. They already have someone with Stannis and Euron just got back from there.

The whole idea of Aegon being a Blackfyre is premised on the fact that Bittersteel formed the Gold Company to consolidate the retainers of House Blackfyre. That's it. You have to remember that the Golden Company was originally waiting to help Daenerys take the iron throne. And its top officers get excited about Aegon because they believe he's the son of Rhaegar. Finally, it was Aegon's idea, not theirs, to go without Daenerys. Even then, they're preparing a beachead for her arrival. You could argue the Golden Company was doing this to see the reunification of Houses Targaryen and Blackfyre, but why would they be for Dany at all if they already had a Blackfyre?

Still, the prophecy is not Quaithe's alone. Dany saw it in the House of the Undying - a cloth dragon being paraded about on sticks (or something like that). The prophecy has to mean something.

And why wouldn't Daenerys be the Mummer's Dragon? For years, Varys told Robert Baratheon about her every move, who she married, where she was headed. Presumably this was to keep Robert unaware of the enemies he had at home. As soon as Joffrey takes the Iron Throne, the reports about Daenerys stop completely. Even though Jorah confirms that he sent a communication in Qarth. Varys used her to create fear on the council when he was useful in doing so and stopped once he had other objectives.

Lastly, Varys confirms Aegon's lineage to Kevan Lannister. Why would he lie to a dead man? Some would argue so his Little Birds don't hear and potentially leak it to anyone, but there's no evidence of his Birds being capable of being on anyone else's payroll. Even if they could, they're probably privy to a lot of Varys secrets and would probably know about the Aegon secret anyway.

To me, the whole "Aegon is fake" theory is like R+L=J. We all get excited because we think we've "figured it out," but actually, it's probably not true. Martin's been setting up Aegon being alive since the first novel.

[Risha]

I agree with the OP and Bolivar. There is ample evidence (see Bolivar above) that Aegon is REAL. He can be THE mummer's dragon without being A mummer's dragon. I think connecting the two is an obvious misdirection by GRRM to keep us guessing (or just a false connection made by readers). And GRRM himself states that power is where it is perceived to be, not where it "should" be. I believe the cloth dragon carried by the people is something else entirely, perhaps just saying that it is The People that will carry dragons back to the throne, that her support (and the power) lies there.

The point is made a couple of times as well that prophesy is a fickle maid. Melisandra has the accuracy of a weather forecaster in Chicago (read: not very good), and Meera and Jojen seem to disagree as to whether what is seen in a prophesy may be "changed." A prophesy is a vision of a moment in time without context to properly interpret it. To depend on one interpretation of a prophesy is to be fooled, especially if those events may seem to change in the next moment. It is true that Aegon was on his way; then he wasn't. The prophesy doesn't say he was there or that Dany would meet him, just that he was headed in that direction AT THAT MOMENT. (Note: R+L=J is not solely based on prophesy, but on events and recollections, which themselves are often suspect, but as such, it is a much stronger theory, especially combining the various recollections.)

The "Aegon is a Blackfyre" theory, IMO, is the weakest theory I have heard. I believe all of the Golden Company stuff is just to remind us that there have been such conflicts in the past (especially involving brothers-from-another-mother) and that there are lots of branch Targs and Targ-like folks running about; that is not what makes Aegon, Dany and Jon (R+L=J!) the heads of the dragon.

Off topic: Tyrion will get to "ride" a dragon as he has dreamed. He will ride the Targaryen wave back to Westeros! :cool4:

[Trebuchet Penguin]

/unlurks

Thus far Quaithe hasn't done anything to suggest untrustworthiness (I think I just made up that word).

She's a bit shady though.

I'd trust Quaithe over Mel, Varys, and LF any day....at least Quaithe has been RIGHT.

Disagree. We know almost nothing about Quaithe other than the fact that she wears a lacquered mask and appears to Dany while alone or when everyone is asleep(e.g. Twilight Ewardian Stalking technique). We suspect she can see things through the glass candle, but when has this been proved? She could well be another shadowbinder from Asshai manipulating the fate of Westeros with a hidden agenda.

/relurks

[dtones520]

My problem with the Blackfyre theory is that the Blackfyres are hardly mentioned in the ASOIAF series. In, around, 6,000 pages, the word Blackfyre is mentioned 16 times. It is mentioned 4 times in ASOS, 1 in AFFC and 11 times in ADWD (mainly when giving the Golden Company a little backstory). Everyone I have talked to who is a casual reader has very little idea of who the Blackfyres are. The people here who came up with the Blackfyre theory are people who read the Dunk and Egg stories, which shouldn't be a requirement to reading/understanding ASOIAF's story.

The theory is also pieced together by a bunch of prophecies and clues that people have bent and twisted into their theory of events.

[dtones520]

Thus far Quaithe hasn't done anything to suggest untrustworthiness (I think I just made up that word).

She's a bit shady though.

I'd trust Quaithe over Mel, Varys, and LF any day....at least Quaithe has been RIGHT.

Quaithe showed up with Xaro and Pyat Pree, both of whom had their motivations for *helping* Dany. Why does Quaithe have no alterior motive? Melisandre has been right in her visions, she just has had some trouble interpreting the meaning of the visions. So, Quaithe is just better at interpreting visions. As for LF and Varys, you are not meant to trust them, the fact that you trust Quiathe makes her that much more dangerous.

[Ditocorto]

I'll paste from another thread what I think of the whole Aegon/mummer's dragon thing

Aegon and the mummer's dragon, a (hopefully) new argument

(I'll recap a little bit, but even if you're familiar with all the theories about Aegon I invite you to read all of it)

since the very first appearence of the mummer's dragon in Dany's vision the more or less widely considered correct interpretation was mummer's dragon = fake dragon, someone that pretends (or other people pretend is) to be dragon, i.e. a Targaryen

So sure enough when Aegon appears readers, at least some of them and many on this forum, called bullshit on him, especially when later in ADWD Dany "meets" Quaithe that mentions the mummer's dragon between the people that are coming to Mereen and she should distrust. At that point in the book Aegon and co. are actually coming to Mereen and since Quaithe is more likely seeing it (and communicating with Dany) through a glass candle it's not a prophecy we're talking about, but the actual present state of things the Asshaite (I think I just made up the word) is seeing and reporting. There are some things about this warning that Quaithe give that strike me as odd, but I'm going to discuss them later, for now let's assume Aegon is the mummer's dragon, and this was just a almost crystal clear confirmation of our doubts by GRRM

well, what is Aegon if he's not a Targ? some clues (not particularly convincing to me but I recognize that the whole argument is solid and plausible) point to the possibilty that he's a Blackfyre, not a Targaryen

so a fake dragon, right? WRONG, the Blackfyres are consistently called the black DRAGONS, not the fake dragons, so a Blackfyre will still be a dragon, not a fake, ergo Aegon can't be the mummer's dragon if we take it to mean "fake dragon". Also a Blackfyre that doesn't want to usurp the throne per se but rather reunite the two lines is basically a Targaryen, I'm pretty sure that if one of the descendant of Daemon said to the current Targ king "ehi I'm sorry my grandgrandfather was an asshole, can I come back? I renounce to any claim and just want to live back in Westeros" he would have beenn allowed to. Aegon wants to marry Dany and basically rule together, and even when he starts to conquer the Stormlands the plan is never, not even for a moment, to seize the power for himself but rather to help Dany's conquest (and the fact that he's guided by Connington kind of assures that he will basically be a Targ - Dany - loyalist). Do you think Dany, who married a freaking mereneese to save a few lives, won't say yes to someone of the blood of the dragon to save a kingdom? of course she will marry him, and rule with him (that if the lad doesn't get killed first, which is not unlikely). It kinda sucks somehow that Martin pulled a deus ex machina out of a sleeve but the carachter is actually not that bad and Connington is pretty good, it could have been worse.

But I digress, back on topic! we have two choiches here

1) Aegon is not the mummer's dragon, that explains for example why Quaithe mentions all the coming dangers in pair (kraken and dark flame, griffin and lion, sun's son and mummer's dragon) but keeps the mummer's dragon far from the two he's supposed to come with. Also remember that she sees Connington and Tyrion in the glass candle (and we can assume she recognize them since has a good knowledge of Westeros) but she doesn't really have the means to know who's the young kid is, remember this is not a prophecy but a simple "report" of what she can see. Who's the mummer's dragon then? could be someone we haven't seen yet, could be the way Quaithe calls Brown Ben Plumm (who claims to have dragon blood) since she thinks he's the mummer's dragon (I think she knows of the prophecy, can't remember if the two talked about it though) and wants to warn Dany (could be a misunderstanding of the prophecy by Quaithe, in that case Aegon could be the "real" mummer's dragon - see below -)

2) Aegon is the mummer's dragon, but the meaning is not "a fake dragon". Can it mean "Vary's/Illiryo's dragon"? maybe, but he and Connington change the plan pretty soon and don't really seem to be the "dynamic duo's" creatures. My idea is that it means "the dragon cheered by the people" (foreshadowed in the little puppet play we heard is played in the streets of KL in, I believe, ACoK), meaning that this dragon (a real dragon) is the one that will be cheered by the people). How does it fit in the "slayer of lies" thing? IT DOESN'T and IT DOESN'T HAVE TO, since prophecies are treacherous bitches, and the Undying are not exactly the most reliable source and are exactly the kind of guys that would twist the words in a way that will make Dany misunderstand the visions. My idea is that what Dany sees is actually "true" but the words she hears are said by the undying ergo misleading, even if based on actual foreshadowing. In this particular case "slayer of lies" means "those are the fiercest opponents you will face", and we have Stannis (who competes for the place of Azor Ahai), the stone dragon (some kind of beast, maybe born or freed by the burning of Winterfell?) and let's say Aegon: in all three cases (except maybe the stone dragon) Dany doesn't really have to fight those (morrow not yet made...) but the Undying want her to, and so they use those words to let her think those three as a threat.

So to wrap it up my idea is that even if Aegon IS the mummer's dragon of the vision a) he doesn't have to be neither "fake" nor a Blackfyre (which won't be fake, but a black dragon instead of red one) and more likely means simply "the cheered dragon/ the dragon the people will love" (as opposed to Dany who I don't think the common folk in westeros will welcome) b ) he doesn't have to be an enemy of Dany, even if she may think (being tricked by the Undying) he is, I guess she will be hostile at first but, hoping in good counsel (Tyrion! he had to have those scenes with Aegon for a reason right?), will come to understand that a prophecy is, indeed, a treacherous bitch.

[Mladen]

If Aegon is really Elia`s child(I doubt about it, and I believe he is really Tragaryen) he is also Sun`s son.

[Summerqueen]

About Aegon–the text is purposely ambiguous. We won't know until it comes out. It could go either way. Ponces are going to say "told you so!" and nonponces are going to talk about the laws of narrative economy ad nauseam.

The pairings are set up with thematic purpose too, but not according to arrival but agenda.

Disease

Self-righteous users with no real claim to power of their own

Would-be Advisors to the dragons in question, content to collaborate and guide

Suitors

The String puller

[Dragonfish]

The whole idea of Aegon being a Blackfyre is premised on the fact that Bittersteel formed the Gold Company to consolidate the retainers of House Blackfyre. That's it.

That's...not really it. We also have the mummer's dragon prophecy, which you mentioned, and the foreshadowing of the black dragon sign turning red with rust, which, IMO, is pretty blatant foreshadowing about Aegon being a Blackfyre. Seriously, it's a wonder to me that we're still debating this after that clue was discovered.

You have to remember that the Golden Company was originally waiting to help Daenerys take the iron throne.

Uh...no they weren't. The Golden Company had a deal with Connington to side with Aegon, long before Daenerys appeared on their radar.

And why wouldn't Daenerys be the Mummer's Dragon?

Because Quaithe refers to the mummer's dragon as a separate person, and tells Dany not to trust him/her.

Lastly, Varys confirms Aegon's lineage to Kevan Lannister.

No he doesn't. At no point does he ever state Aegon is the son of Rhaegar and Elia.

Why would he lie to a dead man?

Why would Littlefinger and Sansa keep up the lie about her being his natural daughter when no one is around to hear it?

Some would argue so his Little Birds don't hear and potentially leak it to anyone, but there's no evidence of his Birds being capable of being on anyone else's payroll. Even if they could, they're probably privy to a lot of Varys secrets and would probably know about the Aegon secret anyway.

You have absolutely no evidence for this. Varys' little birds probably know a lot of other people's secrets, but there's nothing that says they know Varys' secrets.

To me, the whole "Aegon is fake" theory is like R+L=J. We all get excited because we think we've "figured it out," but actually, it's probably not true.

Woah, you don't think that R+L=J is true? That's pretty much the strongest theory on this board.

Martin's been setting up Aegon being alive since the first novel.

He's been setting up the appearance of an Aegon, but not necessarily the Aegon who was Rhaegar and Elia's son.

[Dragonfish]

My problem with the Blackfyre theory is that the Blackfyres are hardly mentioned in the ASOIAF series. In, around, 6,000 pages, the word Blackfyre is mentioned 16 times. It is mentioned 4 times in ASOS, 1 in AFFC and 11 times in ADWD (mainly when giving the Golden Company a little backstory).

And it doesn't strike you as interesting that the Blackfyres have been mentioned more times in ADWD than in any other book? (And this isn't even taking into account the massive Blackfyre info dump that was in the first draft of Tyrion's second chapter.)

[What Is Dead Already Died]

And it doesn't strike you as interesting that the Blackfyres have been mentioned more times in ADWD than in any other book? (And this isn't even taking into account the massive Blackfyre info dump that was in the first draft of Tyrion's second chapter.)

I'm not sold on the Aegon isn't Aegon yet, though all the blackfyre story that is introduced makes it seems likely there's a reason for it's addition more then just adding back story to the Targ reign.

[dtones520]

That's...not really it. We also have the mummer's dragon prophecy, which you mentioned, and the foreshadowing of the black dragon sign turning red with rust, which, IMO, is pretty blatant foreshadowing about Aegon being a Blackfyre. Seriously, it's a wonder to me that we're still debating this after that clue was discovered.

Uh...no they weren't. The Golden Company had a deal with Connington to side with Aegon, long before Daenerys appeared on their radar.

Because Quaithe refers to the mummer's dragon as a separate person, and tells Dany not to trust him/her.

No he doesn't. At no point does he ever state Aegon is the son of Rhaegar and Elia.

Why would Littlefinger and Sansa keep up the lie about her being his natural daughter when no one is around to hear it?

You have absolutely no evidence for this. Varys' little birds probably know a lot of other people's secrets, but there's nothing that says they know Varys' secrets.

Woah, you don't think that R+L=J is true? That's pretty much the strongest theory on this board.

He's been setting up the appearance of an Aegon, but not necessarily the Aegon who was Rhaegar and Elia's son.

How do you even know that the story about the sign is a clue about Aegons identity? Could it be? Sure. Could it be a story about a sign? Yep.

The Golden Company broke their contact with Myr because they expected Dany to travel from Mereen to Volantis, when she stayed in Mereen they joined up with Connington.

Yet you seem to trust Quaithe, even though she is pushing Dany away from people who would help her win the Throne.

Varys is telling Kevan that Aegon will raise his banners over Storms End, Kevan says "Aegon? Dead. He's dead." Varys replies to Kevan by saying "No, he's here..." Directly replying to Kevans realizing he was referring to Rhaegars son. He doesn't say it is that Aegon, but he also doesn't say that it isn't. You are assuming he is saying he isn't.

Varys isn't Littlefinger, they are actually quite the opposite.

Varys' little birds know what he wants them to know. Now, Aegon is here he wants them to start spreading the word and putting those worms in people's heads to create more dissension and help rally houses around Aegons cause.

Yes, R+L=J is very likely true, but it doesn't mean that it is. There are plenty of people out there who don't think it is.

And it doesnt necessarily mean that it isn't the real Aegon either.

Sorry, multi quote works horribly on my IPad.

[Faint]

My problem with the Blackfyre theory is that the Blackfyres are hardly mentioned in the ASOIAF series. In, around, 6,000 pages, the word Blackfyre is mentioned 16 times. It is mentioned 4 times in ASOS, 1 in AFFC and 11 times in ADWD (mainly when giving the Golden Company a little backstory). Everyone I have talked to who is a casual reader has very little idea of who the Blackfyres are. The people here who came up with the Blackfyre theory are people who read the Dunk and Egg stories, which shouldn't be a requirement to reading/understanding ASOIAF's story.

The theory is also pieced together by a bunch of prophecies and clues that people have bent and twisted into their theory of events.

How many times was Bloodraven mentioned in the series before he appeared?

[dtones520]

And it doesn't strike you as interesting that the Blackfyres have been mentioned more times in ADWD than in any other book? (And this isn't even taking into account the massive Blackfyre info dump that was in the first draft of Tyrion's second chapter.)

Not when you are introducing a group that was formed by the Blackfyres, no. We get a history of everything and everyone in these stories, yet we can't get a history lesson in the Golden Company?

[dtones520]

How many times was Bloodraven mentioned in the series before he appeared?

None. But, his identity is supposed to be a mystery.

[Faint]

None. But, his identity is supposed to be a mystery.

Um, so is Aegon's.

[MyLifeIsNotSoPrecious]

Just once, I would like someone to come up with some actual evidence(besides the "Varys never lies" angle) for Aegon being real instead of just rationalizing away all the evidence for him being fake.

[Dragonfish]

How do you even know that the story about the sign is a clue about Aegons identity? Could it be? Sure. Could it be a story about a sign? Yep.

A story about a black dragon sign, which specifically represented the Blackfyres, being thrown into the river and later washing ashore rusted red? Sorry, that's too coincidental for it not to be a clue.

The Golden Company broke their contact with Myr because they expected Dany to travel from Mereen to Volantis, when she stayed in Mereen they joined up with Connington.

Yet you seem to trust Quaithe, even though she is pushing Dany away from people who would help her win the Throne.

I never said I trusted Quaithe, so I'm not sure what you're point is.

Varys is telling Kevan that Aegon will raise his banners over Storms End, Kevan says "Aegon? Dead. He's dead." Varys replies to Kevan by saying "No, he's here..." Directly replying to Kevans realizing he was referring to Rhaegars son. He doesn't say it is that Aegon, but he also doesn't say that it isn't. You are assuming he is saying he isn't.

No I'm not. I'm saying he doesn't say at all that Aegon is Rhaegar and Elia's son.

Varys isn't Littlefinger, they are actually quite the opposite.

They are both still master schemers though, and there's nothing to say that they wouldn't use a similar tactic when it comes to keeping up a lie.

Varys' little birds know what he wants them to know. Now, Aegon is here he wants them to start spreading the word and putting those worms in people's heads to create more dissension and help rally houses around Aegons cause.

Spread the word? His little birds are mute. They are used for gathering secrets, not spreading rumors.

Yes, R+L=J is very likely true, but it doesn't mean that it is. There are plenty of people out there who don't think it is.

Yeah, and those people are in denial, IMO.

And it doesnt necessarily mean that it isn't the real Aegon either.

Never said it did. I just thought it was interesting that Bolivar didn't even think R+L=J was true. It makes me wonder what theories he/she does think are true.

[dtones520]

Um, so is Aegon's.

You're right and it is. But the Golden Company's isn't. What I'm saying is that if Aegon is a Blackfyre, which he very well could be, GRRM has done a poor job of story telling for the average reader. People who haven't read the Dunk and Egg stories have little knowledge of the Blackfyres. So, are the Dunk and Egg stories a requirement to understand the story told in the ASOIAF series? Because I was under the impression they weren't.