Is Braavos going to declare for Stannis?

[Lord Varys]

Since Stannis and the Iron Bank have now struck a deal, how are they going to ensure that they get the money back they invested into Stannis?

Jon's description of the policy of the Iron Bank did not only include the appearance of pretenders but also the sudden deaths of the princes daring to cross the Iron Bank.

If we assume that the Iron Bank is a major political player in Braavos, what's going to happen now?

My guess is that the Iron Bank and the Faceless Men are connected (I'm convince the House of Black and White effectively controls the Iron Bank), so we can expect that Faceless Men will be dispatched to Westeros to ensure Stannis's victory (the Iron Bank will not get their due if Stannis is dead - they will in fact lose all they money they have given Stannis).

And since most of the free companies apparently are not at the western coast of Essos right now, is the new Sealord going to enter the war in Westeros on Stannis's side. Assuming that the Iron Bank/the Faceless Men control pretty much in the city, this would be the expected outcome.

Especially since Stannis does not have dragons - Dany might be opposed to slavery, but the Braavosi collective memory really seems to have an issue with dragons. And the Iron Bank has struck a deal with Stannis. I doubt that they will back out, they seem to honor their contracts...

[Stannis the Stern]

By the Gods I hope they do. Then we can have a sweet conflict with the Stannis-Braavosi alliance destroying Daenerys...sorry folks I do have passionate hatred for her.

[Arkash]

Not Braavos, but the Iron Bank, yes.

[Lord Varys]

As I see it, Braavos is most likely controlled by the Iron Bank. And the Iron Bank's main stockholders might be the House of Black and White. That would explain

1. the whole thing about an Iron Coin being the sign of the Faceless Men

2. How Arya might reconnect with the main story in Westeros. Murdering Stannis's main enemies in the North or in KL will be really fun to read, especially since Stannis's enemies happens to be Arya's enemies as well.

I also don't believe that the whole thing about the dying Sealord has been introduced for nothing. In the next Arya chapters we are going to see who really calls the shots in Braavos. I'd be hugely surprised if things would be as they appear...

[aryagonnakill]

Very interesting. One possible plot line that would make this most likely not occur would be if Pentos fell. If Ser Barristan keeps his word, which i think its likely he will at least try to do, then Bravos wouldn't be sending soldiers or ships across the narrow see to protect an investment. According to the map I have seen Pentos is relatively close to Bravos with no other major cities in between.

[oscarinfw]

I have a problem with the Iron Banks "banking" on Stannis to win in the first place. He is caught in a Winter storm about to face a foe who outnumbers him and which conflict could result in his death. Why would the Iron banker agree to bankroll his campaign when Stannis is in such a precarious situation ? If it's up to me, I would want Stannis to be in a much better situation than he is now (e.g. after he has beaten Roose/Ramsey), before I agree to fund his war.

But given that the Iron Bank is going to fund him anyway, I agree the Iron Bank will probably take a more "active" role to see that Stannis wins. But than again, I am not sure the Northmen and/or any surviving Starks would really support Stannis; i.e. are they really going to be natural allies in the Game of Thrones ? My first thought was the possibility of Arya being sent to take out Rickon and other surviving Starks when/if the FM determine the Starks remain a threat to Stannis.

[irishtemper]

I have a problem with the Iron Banks "banking" on Stannis to win in the first place. He is caught in a Winter storm about to face a foe who outnumbers him and which conflict could result in his death. Why would the Iron banker agree to bankroll his campaign when Stannis is in such a precarious situation ? If it's up to me, I would want Stannis to be in a much better situation than he is now (e.g. after he has beaten Roose/Ramsey), before I agree to fund his war.

But given that the Iron Bank is going to fund him anyway, I agree the Iron Bank will probably take a more "active" role to see that Stannis wins. But than again, I am not sure the Northmen and/or any surviving Starks would really support Stannis; i.e. are they really going to be natural allies in the Game of Thrones ? My first thought was the possibility of Arya being sent to take out Rickon and other surviving Starks when/if the FM determine the Starks remain a threat to Stannis.

The reason the Iron Bank backs him is because no other claimant to the throne will agree to pay the debts owed by Robert and Joff. Or at least that's the only reason I saw in the books for them to do so.

[TheDarkOne]

I like everything said except....I can't see the FMs controlling he bank, I'm sure it's the other way around. The FM are most likely the enforcement arm of the bank when needed.

If we think of the iron bank as being analogous to our congress and federal reserve, the FM become the CIA/NSA. The various lords become Governors, etc.

The model GRRM has used on the surface seems very foreign and exotic, but on closer inspection there is much familiar.

[total1402]

The reason the Iron Bank backs him is because no other claimant to the throne will agree to pay the debts owed by Robert and Joff. Or at least that's the only reason I saw in the books for them to do so.

Well

I have a problem with the Iron Banks "banking" on Stannis to win in the first place. He is caught in a Winter storm about to face a foe who outnumbers him and which conflict could result in his death. Why would the Iron banker agree to bankroll his campaign when Stannis is in such a precarious situation ? If it's up to me, I would want Stannis to be in a much better situation than he is now (e.g. after he has beaten Roose/Ramsey), before I agree to fund his war.

But given that the Iron Bank is going to fund him anyway, I agree the Iron Bank will probably take a more "active" role to see that Stannis wins. But than again, I am not sure the Northmen and/or any surviving Starks would really support Stannis; i.e. are they really going to be natural allies in the Game of Thrones ? My first thought was the possibility of Arya being sent to take out Rickon and other surviving Starks when/if the FM determine the Starks remain a threat to Stannis.

Yeah I did a thread on this. IMO if you were a betting man you would say the claiment with 3 dragons is most likely to win. Their only reason for banking on Stannis is that he MIGHT agree to repay their debts. They have no reason to assume that Dany wouldn't, especially in return for troops and money.

On that thread most people believed braavos would not because braavosi had some emnity toward slavers and dragons. IMO Braavos sided with Aegon the Conquerer and Baelerion was used in that war. They are a city founded by ex-slaves, they hate slavers and sheltered Dany for several years including overseeing a treaty between Martel and the Targs wardens. To me that doesn't seem like a hostile situation. If you know that your ancient enemy, Volantis, wants to destroy somebody freeing all the slaves then the apparent apathy of the Braavosi appears strange. Indeed, whilst Dany recieves envoys from Qarth and even Quentyn there are no Braavosi to send their regards for freeing the slaves? IMO they'll be a surprise faction in the Battle for Mereen and theplot device that allows her to head to Westeros. They can guarnetee Mereens safety and offer to trade with the city.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

They are a city founded by ex-slaves, they hate slavers and sheltered Dany for several years including overseeing a treaty between Martel and the Targs wardens. To me that doesn't seem like a hostile situation.

There's no evidence that the Braavosi took any positive action to shelter Dany, or that they oversaw the treaty with the Martells. The two people mentioned in Quentyn's parchment were Oberyn Martell and Willem Darry. It appears that at some point the Archon of Tyrosh was involved. But where do you see evidence that Braavos particularly cared, one way or other, about Viserys and Dany?

[total1402]

There's no evidence that the Braavosi took any positive action to shelter Dany, or that they oversaw the treaty with the Martells. The two people mentioned in Quentyn's parchment were Oberyn Martell and Willem Darry. It appears that at some point the Archon of Tyrosh was involved. But where do you see evidence that Braavos particularly cared, one way or other, about Viserys and Dany?

I was sure that she was in Braavos for a while and that the Sealord of Braavos oversaw the treaty between Oberyn and William Darry as a neutral observer. Thats just how I remember reading that passage.

At any rate, why would they have any reason to not support Dany? The best argument I've seen is that Braavos has some kind of irrational hatred of dragons.

edit

Q Martells description on the wiki page says the Sealord of Braavos was involved. http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Quentyn_Martell

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

At any rate, why would they have any reason to not support Dany? The best argument I've seen is that Braavos has some kind of irrational hatred of dragons.

Well, at the moment it's easy to conclude that Dany isn't much interested in Westeros, or at least isn't interested enough to lead her armies there. If she isn't dead from a dragon attack already, she's getting herself bogged down in a civil war in Slaver's Bay, leagues and leagues from Braavos or Westeros. And it doesn't exactly look like she has control over those three dragons, so at the moment they don't seem to be a point in her favor.

[total1402]

Well, at the moment it's easy to conclude that Dany isn't much interested in Westeros, or at least isn't interested enough to lead her armies there. If she isn't dead from a dragon attack already, she's getting herself bogged down in a civil war in Slaver's Bay, leagues and leagues from Braavos or Westeros. And it doesn't exactly look like she has control over those three dragons, so at the moment they don't seem to be a point in her favor.

We don't know how well informed Braavos is of any events in slavers bay. Q Martel only seemed to know what the Yunkai had said, which was basically propaganda. Pycelle in Westeros and Kevin fully accepted that she would eventually reach them. The implication of that is that common assumption is that the woman with three dragons will win. Also, if Dany loses then Volantis could very well turn that coalition of slaver allies against Braavos or refound the Valyrian freehold. That assemblage of force is a serious threat to Braavos.

Why would they assume that Dany isn't "interested" in Westeros. Q Martell never assumed that neither does Braaovs have any reason to. Dany is very interested in Westeros and no character ever assumes that she isn't. Nobody knows about her not having control of the dragons. Q Martell had no clue even inside Mereen.

Even JC doesn't find out about Dany staying until reahing Volanits and came from Pentos which wasn't much further away than Braavos. Yet Braavos never sends any diplomats or envoys to Mereen? Doesn't it appear odd that they wouldn't throw their hand into the ring or gauge the motivations of Dany/find out whats going on first? IMO that suggests that they've already made up their mind. Or, I'll grant you, it could be that the First Sea Lord dying briefly made the city-state indecisive during ADWD.

But anyway, backing Stannis as others have said, makes no sense.

[Lord Damian]

This will be interesting since Ramsay's letter has been read at the wall. The repurcusions of this letter will have effect similar to the death of Tywin. People will have to adjust their game. The Iron Bank might say that their deal was with Stannis therefore if someone else comes forward like Littlefinger on behalf of a new King Aegon then, the Bank will always go with their best bet on getting their due.

[total1402]

This will be interesting since Ramsay's letter has been read at the wall. The repurcusions of this letter will have effect similar to the death of Tywin. People will have to adjust their game. The Iron Bank might say that their deal was with Stannis therefore if someone else comes forward like Littlefinger on behalf of a new King Aegon then, the Bank will always go with their best bet on getting their due.

Aye Aegon is the best bet for the Iron Bank and they already assume that hes just Danys vanguard. Coz, thats what JC is telling everyone and what their enemies assume.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

It appears that I was incorrect about the Sealord acting as witness to the bargain between Oberyn and Willem Darry. But it's worth noting that acting as a witness commits the Sealord, and Braavos, to exactly nothing.

Doesn't it appear odd that they wouldn't throw their hand into the ring or gauge the motivations of Dany/find out whats going on first? IMO that suggests that they've already made up their mind.

That's bizarre logic. The fact that Braavos has shown no interest in Dany proves that they've already decided to back her? I would think that the fact that Braavos has shown no interest in Dany proves that they have no interest in Dany. I would further suggest that the fact that there's no evidence of any military build-up in Braavos--even though Arya is well-informed about harbor gossip and on the ports every day--suggests that Braavos is not preparing to intervene in Slaver's Bay.

You argue that should the Volantenes emerge victorious they could restart a new slave empire in Essos and pose a threat to Braavos. But honestly, the possibility of a new slave empire has never been more remote. Volantis is divided between followers of the Red God (who support Dany) and those who oppose them. Astapor is in ruins. Meereen is a divided city. The slave trade is in tatters. All of this, without Braavos having to lift a finger. Why should they feel the need to intervene, when everything is working out to their benefit already?

But anyway, backing Stannis as others have said, makes no sense.

Stannis is in Westeros, fighting for the throne. Dany may get to Westeros at some point and fight for the throne, or she may die in the Dothraki sea, or making a new empire in Slaver's Bay, or any number of other things. At the moment, Dany has repeatedly refused (publicly!) to leave for Westeros and seek her fortune there. She refused at the end of ASOS, she turned down Xaro Xhoan Daxos' offer, she refused an alliance with Quentyn Martell. Instead, she got married to a Meereenese notable and started diplomatic relations with the neighbors. Do those look like the actions of somebody who will be in Westeros soon? Not at all.

Just because Kevan wants to prepare for the possibility that Dany will arrive in force doesn't mean that the Braavosi would have reached the same conclusion. At the moment, she's a question mark to them.

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This will be interesting since Ramsay's letter has been read at the wall. The repurcusions of this letter will have effect similar to the death of Tywin. People will have to adjust their game.

I don't buy that. The Iron Bank isn't just going to change strategies just because Ramsay Bolton wrote a letter saying that Stannis was dead. There are always false reports in war, and Ramsay Bolton has every reason to lie. (He wants to demoralize his enemies and their allies, after all.) The Iron Bank isn't going to make drastic decisions without investigating the matter further

[total1402]

It appears that I was incorrect about the Sealord acting as witness to the bargain between Oberyn and Willem Darry. But it's worth noting that acting as a witness commits the Sealord, and Braavos, to exactly nothing.

That's bizarre logic. The fact that Braavos has shown no interest in Dany proves that they've already decided to back her? I would think that the fact that Braavos has shown no interest in Dany proves that they have no interest in Dany. I would further suggest that the fact that there's no evidence of any military build-up in Braavos--even though Arya is well-informed about harbor gossip and on the ports every day--suggests that Braavos is not preparing to intervene in Slaver's Bay.

You argue that should the Volantenes emerge victorious they could restart a new slave empire in Essos and pose a threat to Braavos. But honestly, the possibility of a new slave empire has never been more remote. Volantis is divided between followers of the Red God (who support Dany) and those who oppose them. Astapor is in ruins. Meereen is a divided city. The slave trade is in tatters. All of this, without Braavos having to lift a finger. Why should they feel the need to intervene, when everything is working out to their benefit already?

Stannis is in Westeros, fighting for the throne. Dany may get to Westeros at some point and fight for the throne, or she may die in the Dothraki sea, or making a new empire in Slaver's Bay, or any number of other things. At the moment, Dany has repeatedly refused (publicly!) to leave for Westeros and seek her fortune there. She refused at the end of ASOS, she turned down Xaro Xhoan Daxos' offer, she refused an alliance with Quentyn Martell. Instead, she got married to a Meereenese notable and started diplomatic relations with the neighbors. Do those look like the actions of somebody who will be in Westeros soon? Not at all.

Just because Kevan wants to prepare for the possibility that Dany will arrive in force doesn't mean that the Braavosi would have reached the same conclusion. At the moment, she's a question mark to them.

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Your first and second points contradict themselves. If Dany has, as you see it basically already won and broken the slave trade then it is far more likely that she would leave slaver bay since whats keeping her there is the massive besieigng armies and fleets around her. Plus, if there was a rising power in the East that neccesiates sending envoys and the like. Total inaction from a major player in the East when every single other power is involved appears odd and suggests they have a secret agenda; maybe they are sitting on the fence.

Powers involved

*Pentos (obv due to Illyrio)

*Tyrosh

*Lys

*Qarth

*Volantis

*Astapor

*New Ghis

Those refusals were based purely on the fact that she didn't want her freed slaves to die and that everyone around her wanted her dead. Also, whilst she made public pronouncements, neither JC nor Q Martell are aware of them until they are all but on the Easts doorstep. Actually she married Hidazhar and opened diplomatic relations specifically so that she could leave Mereen with some kind of peace settlement and get on with Westeros. That was her motivation for doing that. Dany does want to go to Westeros. It is just that everyone in the East is preventing her from going without several hundred thousand people dying on her account.

If Braavos knows that Dany has 3 dragons, as does Kevin, why wouldn't they assume that she would eventually win and come West to reclaim her birthright? If she does then Stannis, even if he wins, gets deposed and they don't get their money. Without envoys being sent East they only have inaccurate hearsay and gossip; not enough to understand Danys issues with the Dragons (the Yunkai say that she turns her dragons on the people not that she can't control them).

Acting as an impartial mediator to a treaty is not an act of neutraility. They kept that deal entirely secret and never used it to their own benefit. The Targs are enemies of Westeros and harbouring your enemies and not handing them over is a serious sign of hostility. Aiding the signing of a major alliance treaty with the aim of usurping the Iron Throne is a serious slight towards House Baratheon. Besides it was mainly addressing a point others made about "Braavos n the Faceless men hate dragons so will never help Dany" arguement.

[Mummer's Fart]

Actually she married Hidazhar and opened diplomatic relations specifically so that she could leave Mereen with some kind of peace settlement and get on with Westeros. That was her motivation for doing that. Dany does want to go to Westeros. It is just that everyone in the East is preventing her from going without several hundred thousand people dying on her account.

Can you quote some text to prove that? I thought she married him to win a peace agreement with the Harpies and Yunkai.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

If Dany has, as you see it basically already won and broken the slave trade then it is far more likely that she would leave slaver bay since whats keeping her there is the massive besieigng armies and fleets around her.

I didn't say that she had already won. I said that she had done significant damage to the slave trade. Slave powers like Volantis and Yunkai are worse off than they were before, substantially so. Volantis can't even get its army to move against the priests of the Red God, so why should they be in a position to jump-start a new slave empire? This doesn't mean that a new power is going to take over Slaver's Bay, just that Slaver's Bay is hardly in a position to start up Valyria II.

Also, whilst she made public pronouncements, neither JC nor Q Martell are aware of them until they are all but on the Easts doorstep.

This assumes that Braavos doesn't have agents in Volantis informing them of events and news from there. Since they almost certainly do, I don't see the problem.

Actually she married Hidazhar and opened diplomatic relations specifically so that she could leave Mereen with some kind of peace settlement and get on with Westeros. That was her motivation for doing that.

We know that, but Braavos has no such assurances.

Powers involved

*Pentos (obv due to Illyrio)

*Tyrosh

*Lys

*Qarth

*Volantis

*Astapor

*New Ghis

To what extent are Pentos, Tyrosh and Lys involved?

[total1402]

I didn't say that she had already won. I said that she had done significant damage to the slave trade. Slave powers like Volantis and Yunkai are worse off than they were before, substantially so. Volantis can't even get its army to move against the priests of the Red God, so why should they be in a position to jump-start a new slave empire? This doesn't mean that a new power is going to take over Slaver's Bay, just that Slaver's Bay is hardly in a position to start up Valyria II.

To what extent are Pentos, Tyrosh and Lys involved?

I think they were part of the coalition which had declared hostilities against her. Not promised troops but possibly money. New Ghis, Yunkai and Volantis are the heavy hitters of the coalition. Isn't Illyrio like the head honcho in Pentos?

Actually Volantis has sent its entire fleet and army to attack Mereen. Victarion mentions that he has to outpace it in order to reach Mereen first because he doesn't have the forces to defeat it with just the Iron Fleet. Tyrions POV makes it clear that Volantis fire worshippers could well change things but even if a coup does happen the military forces will be in full swing.

Also, Ser Jorah would disagree with you. ;) they just don't know they've lost yet. You do not wake the dragon. Let alone the woman with three of the beasts.