Is Braavos going to declare for Stannis?

[Lost Umber]

The Iron Bank backs Stannis because the Lannisters rejected them and no one left alive had made a claim for the throne. All they have to do is kill Tommen with a Faceless Man and then Stannis is next in line. The Iron Bank always get their due.

[total1402]

The Iron Bank backs Stannis because the Lannisters rejected them and no one left alive had made a claim for the throne. All they have to do is kill Tommen with a Faceless Man and then Stannis is next in line. The Iron Bank always get their due.

You forget Myrcella.Odd that they haven't offered him FM....

OMG, you don't think Arya will be sent to kill Tommen do you?

[Mummer's Fart]

She knows Tommen. They won't send her to kill someone she knows according to their rules.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I did a quick search of the book (for "Pentos," "Lys" and "Tyrosh"). I saw no mention that Pentos was involved in the coalition against Dany, although Illyrio (who married into one powerful family in Pentos, but hardly runs the place) says that the leadership is aware of the revolt in Slaver's Bay and is discussing it. There also isn't any mention of Tyrosh or Lys getting involved on any level. Only Volantis has taken a hand in Slaver's Bay, and then only because they are highly dependent on the slave trade as a source of revenue and as the basis for their political system.

So it's not a mystery why Braavos hasn't sent an envoy to Dany. No doubt that they are aware of her, and will take whatever steps are necessary if she starts to affect their interests directly. But at the moment she hasn't, so they're leaving her alone.

[total1402]

She knows Tommen. They won't send her to kill someone she knows according to their rules.

Yeah I hope she ditches the FM at some point. Making her kill people who've done her no wrong? That doesn't sound like Arya at all.

[aryagonnakill]

I didn't say that she had already won. I said that she had done significant damage to the slave trade. Slave powers like Volantis and Yunkai are worse off than they were before, substantially so. Volantis can't even get its army to move against the priests of the Red God, so why should they be in a position to jump-start a new slave empire? This doesn't mean that a new power is going to take over Slaver's Bay, just that Slaver's Bay is hardly in a position to start up Valyria II.

This assumes that Braavos doesn't have agents in Volantis informing them of events and news from there. Since they almost certainly do, I don't see the problem.

We know that, but Braavos has no such assurances.

To what extent are Pentos, Tyrosh and Lys involved?

Im pretty sure the only involvement that tyrosh and lys have is that they are about to go to war with each other which has drawn sell swords and free companies to that region away from slavers bay. Pentos is only involved as far as ilyrio is. But seeing as Pentos is a free city, despite having slaves, i would imagine they wouldn't publicly join a slaver alliance

[total1402]

That must be where I heard Lys and Tyrosh mentioned.When I say Pentos I only meant Illyrio. Besides the events in slavers bay are pretty huge in their own right, almost as large a conflict as that in Westeros and becoming more and more explosive.

[King Doug]

The Iron Bank is in a pretty good situation with Stannis. If he wins, then they have someone who agreed to pay the debts of his brother. If he loses, they didn't lose any money and then they have to try their luck again with the Lannisters (even though I do think that Tommen will be assassinated by the FM).

The Iron Bank backs Stannis because the Lannisters rejected them and no one left alive had made a claim for the throne. All they have to do is kill Tommen with a Faceless Man and then Stannis is next in line. The Iron Bank always get their due.

Stannis wouldn't be in the line of succession anymore. Joff, Myrcella, and Tommen are accepted as Robert's trueborn children. Stannis is rebelling against them. That makes him an enemy of the state and taking him out of the line of succession. Even if he were still in line, Myrcella would come before him.

[total1402]

If they loan him money, n sellsword companies and he loses then they really do lose out.

On Lys and Tyrosh. Is there some kind of plot device for the sell-sword companies being further east. Do you think thats because they'll be more relevent when Dany wins when the war is over and they learn shes planning to invade Westeros.

I like Stannis. But I think the Northmen are playing him. Once they get Rickon, i really believe they will decalre him King of the North and turn on Stannis. They could well offer him to the South in return for acknowledging Northern Independence. Manderly was very clear to Daavos, he wants a Stark in Winterfell, nothing more and nothing less.

[King Doug]

If they loan him money, n sellsword companies and he loses then they really do lose out.

No, they haven't given him any money yet. Stannis is going to shell out money based on the promise (probably a signed contract) that the Iron Bank is giving him a blank check.

If Stannis dies, and he hasn't given the sellswords any money up front, then they are out of luck. They would have to hope the Iron Bank honors the contract between Stannis and the sellsword company, when they would have no reason to honor it.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Besides the events in slavers bay are pretty huge in their own right, almost as large a conflict as that in Westeros and becoming more and more explosive.

Even so, it's worth noting that the Free Cities were reluctant to declare for one or another of the claimants to the Iron Throne. You didn't see emissaries from Pentos or Lys treating with Renly or Balon Greyjoy. The Iron Bank only intervened when Cersei explicitly refused to make scheduled payments, putting their reputation and their solvency at risk.

[total1402]

Even so, it's worth noting that the Free Cities were reluctant to declare for one or another of the claimants to the Iron Throne. You didn't see emissaries from Pentos or Lys treating with Renly or Balon Greyjoy. The Iron Bank only intervened when Cersei explicitly refused to make scheduled payments, putting their reputation and their solvency at risk.

Yes but Westeros and Essos have very few links and politcal links. They're very much different worlds and its hard to see anything being gained. Yet Salvers bay is part of Essos, involving Braavos principal enemy and nemesis Volantis and in a cause, slavery, which has underpinned the state of Braavos when it was founded. They have much more reason to care about what happens in Mereen to what happens in Westeros. Even if Dany just wants to conquer a fair chunk of Essos in slavers bay that directly impacts Braavos far more than events in Westeros where their concerns begin and end with repayment of debts.

[willstark]

I don't see Braavos siding in Westeros war. The fact is, they provide services as any as they think will pay well. They will win money whoever wins.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Even if Dany just wants to conquer a fair chunk of Essos in slavers bay that directly impacts Braavos far more than events in Westeros where their concerns begin and end with repayment of debts.

You think that this must be the case, but none of the Free Cities (save Volantis, which as I said is a special case) are under the impression that what happens in Slaver's Bay is worth their blood and treasure. Why should Braavos be the exception? Slaver's Bay is much more remote to them than it is to, say, Myr.

[total1402]

Yeah perhaps its up to Dany and her allies to sort things out by themselves.

[Dolorous Ali]

Sea Lord of Braavos was sick IIRC. And I don't think they would take such a risk.. Not that I don't like it.. It's just too good, because a bank is not a whole city. FM are up to something else I believe, and they seem like an independent thing, just like the iron bank, unless there are working together for something bigger that they'd need Stannis.

[King Doug]

Even so, it's worth noting that the Free Cities were reluctant to declare for one or another of the claimants to the Iron Throne. You didn't see emissaries from Pentos or Lys treating with Renly or Balon Greyjoy. The Iron Bank only intervened when Cersei explicitly refused to make scheduled payments, putting their reputation and their solvency at risk.

I definitely agree. The only time we know of warlords or kings intervening in Westerosi affairs is the War of the Ninepenny Kings. But I do think that the Iron Bank will push Braavos into aiding Stannis.

[Winterfell is Burning]

The reason the Iron Bank backs him is because no other claimant to the throne will agree to pay the debts owed by Robert and Joff. Or at least that's the only reason I saw in the books for them to do so.

Exactly. The Lannisters won't, and Aegon and Daenerys will simply say the others are usurpers and their debt cannot be recognized.

[oscarinfw]

I'd guess Braavos would stay away from the Slaver's Bay conflict. I doubt they would be too worried about a remote possibility (IMHO) of "Slave empire" "revival" threatening their existence after centuries of freedom.

Without the dragons (and Dany at this point) and/or outside intervention, I cannot see how Meereen can stand alone as a free state with Volantis, Yunkee, Astapor, New Ghis, and Quarth combining against a threat to slave trading. The budding slave rebellion in Volantis is waiting for Dany to take her "crusade" to Volantis before rising up.

I guess there is going to be some serious fireworks over Meereen with Victarion's fleet (and Dragon horn?), the triumphant (?) return of Dany and one or more dragon(s?), and possibly Dothraki involvement.

Militarily, a Dragon (or two or three) would appear to be a decisive component in the naval battles to come if Dany is expected to make her way to Westoros.

Too bad we will have to wait a few years before finding out.

[OrcusOfUndeath]

They will definitely heavily support Stannis. He is their best hope for getting their money back. No one else would even consider it. So unless Stannis is killed, he has pretty good odds to get the Iron Throne. In the North Stannis can muster about 20.000 men now, plus at least 20.000 sellswords from Braavos, and you have yourself quite an army. And that is without any of the southern armies, like the Vale.