Theon Sample Chapter; The Letter sent to Jon (Spoilers)

[Nelapsi]

First post - yay !

I just finished aDwD, eager to read Theon's chapter ... but it seems nowhere to be found since Arianna's was posted ! Maybe one of you ctrl+c/ctrl+d it and could share it with me? Pretty please? :love:

[Bear Island Bruiser]

Anyways, all of this info regarding if theon knew anything about mance to me is irrelevant. Ipersonally think by the time Jon gets the letter the manderleys have gone over to stannis and could have possibly fed ramsay false infothat stannis died. They could have also easily told stannisabout mance if they knew before they rode out..

:agree:

I'm fairly certain that the Frey host attacks Stannis first, falls through the ice at which point the Manderley's turn back and claim they've killed Stannis. Now whether or not they're in league with him or not I don't know. It would be pretty risky to go back and claim he was dead if they weren't working with Stannis, after all he could just turn up in front of Winterfell's gates at any point, but still a possibility.

[Southron_Ambitions]

It COULD be Ramsay IN LEAGUE with some NW traitors, though.

I'm starting to believe this is the most likely scenario. The Hooded Man is Aliser Thorne, Ramsey and Thorne hatch a plan which Thorne relays to Marsh and the other conspirators. Bowen and the conspirators agree with reluctance, realizing this is what they need to do to "save" the NW. It explains why they cried when they killed Jon as well.

[TorontoThrone]

I've only skimmed over the theories of the letter, but I believe that Mance escaped Winterfell and wrote the letter in order to stir things up at the wall. He could take the wall himself with Jon and Stannis out of the picture and it would fit in well with the never trust a traitor theme

[TheWhiteRabbit]

I'm really liking a lot of these scenarios that you all have come up with. One thing I pretty much believe is that the letter isn't exactly what it seems, i.e. things are not exactly as Ramsay describes. Either Stannis, Melesandre, Mance, etc, wrote the letter or Ramsey did, in fact, write it under some false pretense (false information from the Manderlys/Stannis or some trick by Mance). Either way there is something going on here that we are not completely aware of yet.

[Bear Island Bruiser]

I'm really liking a lot of these scenarios that you all have come up with. One thing I pretty much believe is that the letter isn't exactly what it seems, i.e. things are not exactly as Ramsay describes. Either Stannis, Melesandre, Mance, etc, wrote the letter or Ramsey did, in fact, write it under some false pretense (false information from the Manderlys/Stannis or some trick by Mance). Either way there is something going on here that we are not completely aware of yet.

Yeah it's a great scenario and a sign of how the books always keep you guessing. I mean on the face of the evidence presented at the end of ADWD you'd think both Jon and Stannis were dead. We've a letter saying Stannis is and Jon was stabbed a few times and his world goes black. Yet most people don't seem to buy it.

My own feeling is that it has to be part of a Stannis led ruse. The comment he makes to the departing knight (name escapes me) about carrying on hiring sellswords even if he hears he's dead just confirms it for me.

[Myk Lonmouth]

It was Ramsay. And again why must every letter he write have a piece of flesh with it? Why are some of you so hung up on that? The only time he did that before was the letters saying he had Theon. "A piece of prince." And those were dried out pieces of flesh that had been taken a while beforehand. You think he's going to skin Mance or the women and wait until a little piece of flesh is dried out so he can attach it to this letter too? Or would you be expecting a wet piece of bloody meat packed inside the rolled up paper? Surely that wouldn't obstruct the letter's message at all. I just don't understand that.

[Myk Lonmouth]

This was one of the best posts I've read on this. By fassreiter:

In my opinion the way the letters are made up show that Ramsay is, in a very creepy way, talented at making his point in a symbolic way. He uses letters not just to communicate a message, he performs their contents. Take, for example, the peace offer he had Theon deliver to his fellow ironmen. He knew they wouldn't read it. His letter and seal was enought to make the letter work, though, and this is why he had the letter included into the tableau he made out of the flayed prisoners after they had given up. Roose says his son has a "singer's soul" - ironically, of course, but it's true in a twisted way. Ramsay makes use of rituals and symbolics even in his killings: This is why he names the dogs after his victims. It also shows in the way Theon was mistreated, by destroying the two defining traits: his laughter and his sexual confidence. Ramsay is such a sick bastard, he probably thinks of himself as an artist or something. And just look at the wording of the letters:

Quote

I send you each a piece of prince. Linger in my lands, and share his fate.

He is doing alliterations. This is supposed to sound like a poem. The dried skin is part of the letter's 'poetic' nature. It is not true that Ramsay always sends pieces of skin, or that their function would be to prove that he flayed someone. In my opinion, the skin is not to be 'read' as proof, but as part of an imaginary tableau. Each letter is a tablau in a way. Look at the letter to Asha: he signs with a reference to Winterfell because this is where Asha left her brother behind. The skin works all the better on a psychological level because Asha is bound emotionally to Theon. The letter, however, doesn't claim that Ramsay flayed Theon. It merely states how to read the piece of skin. Asha was left to figure out the rest. A good poem leaves the main contents unsaid. It's pretty sick, but I bet Ramsay enjoys composing those letters as much as the rest.

The letter to Jon about the marriage with his sister was written in blood, and had a reference to Lady Hornwood - his former 'bride'. Again: Definitely pushing buttons here, but leaving the main contents unsaid.

Now the pink letter: It is also written in a poetic way. It makes use of the same stylistic devices used for Asha: alliterations, staccato style (parataxis, deliberate use of iterations), imperative, use of coded language (piece of prince, my bride, his red whore). Ramsay paints a vivid image with his words, so there is no need to include any skin. What would that prove, anyway? It could be the skin of anyone. And on a psychological level, there is no emotional bound between Mance/spearwives and Jon (sorry, Jomancers!), so the tableau works well enough without tactile proof. The main information the letter communicates is not the fact that he caught and tortured the wildlings, it's the knowledge he gained from it. Jon grasps that early on: "He knows about the spearwives and their number. He knows about Mance Rayder." This is what the letter is all about. The accuracy of the knowledge conveys the message, as did the skin in Asha's letter. The letter is not a statement, it is a performance. It is to be 'read' correctly, not just by the mere words, but by what is left unsaid. Poetry again. And again, this is met by a change of signature: Ramsay assumes that Jon knows by now that he never married his sister, so he switches from the Hornwood-reference to stressing the 'trueborn'-part. This makes sense because the letter is based on the assumption that Jon, as a bastard, will be taken for a liar because of his bastard blood. The word 'lies' and 'false' are endlessly repeated throughout the letter. It even explicitly threatens to expose Jon's lies.

In my opinion, the pink letter is only too consistent with the sick way Ramsay thinks, acts, and communicates. And I am a little scared of GRRM right now.

[Nelapsi]

This was one of the best posts I've read on this. By fassreiter:

I just finished the chapter - I thought it was really great. I loved it. And this interpretation is right on spot, thank you !

[pobeb]

The letter is written by Ramsey. If anything, Theon's sample chapter is there to support this, not confuse it. I understand why people might think it's Stannis, given his conversation with Justin Massey. But that conversation was in regards to the "false news" he'd be sending to Winterfell via the ravens he has from Maester Tybald. Let's examine why this is. When Stannis is interrogating the maester, he asks:

"Answer me. If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?" The king leaned forward. "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?"

Obviously the implication here is that Tybald has ravens that fly excusively to Winterfell and has been using them to betray Stannis' location to the Boltons. Now, why does this matter? Well:

The king leaned back in his chair. "Get him out of here," he commanded. "Leave the ravens."

Now, you could interpret this line as Stannis liking the company of two squawking ravens, OR you could interpret this as Stannis wanting the ravens close as he finds them to be invaluable; given that his use of them is being completely foreshadowed. (Why else put emphasis on it?)

So, now that we understand that Stannis intends to send a message to Winterfell, what would the contents of that message be?

Well, what better way to have your enemy lower his defenses, then to make him believe that he has nothing to fear? (making them think you're dead)

Here's a better question: When does Stannis send this fake message to the Boltons? Well, he has Arnolf Karstark in custody, so he could use him to have the letter written and his name signed before Bolton's allies arrive... but how could the handful of Karstarks overthrow the thousands of others under Stannis' command? Also, there were 7 days of battle, meaning the portion of the Boltons' strength did in fact reach Stannis. But who? Well, Roose already details the order in which his allies will march. Freys first, and behind them... the Manderlys. Call me crazy, but this sounds like the perfect opportunity for the Manderlys to kill 2 birds with one stone:

1) Revenge on the Freys

2) Proving to Stannis that they are in fact his allies

So, at whichever point, the Manderlys come to Stannis and prove their lealty by 1) betraying the Freys and 2) explaining what happened with Davos. A letter from Arnolf might seem queer, but a letter from both the Karstarks AND the Manderlys? Seeing the despiration currently at Winterfell, the Bolton's don't just want that reassurance, they need it. They need this news to resonate among the North, not only to quiet the tension in their own quarters (Winterfell), but to win the rest of the North to their favor. So, the Boltons accept Stannis' fake message as truth, without a second thought, which leads Ramsey to write his letter to Jon.

But what about Mance?

I've seen people suggesting that Stannis knows Mance is there, because Theon knows. How are people coming to this conclusion? Theon doesn't know who Abel actually is. I just reread all of Theon's chapters, and he never once calls Abel by a different name or alludes to knowing his true identity. Sure, he tells Asha of Abel and his washerwomen, but there's no way he told her that it was Mance and his spearwives. More than likely he probably paints them as some rebel northmen, or spies of Stannis (all of which I'm sure, to Asha, come off as the ramblings of a madman).

I too was once under the impression that the Pink Letter was from Stannis, but how can you reconcile that with the mention of Mance? Stannis has absolutely ZERO knowledge of Melissandre's trick, as detailed in Melissandre's POV. If you doubt that, please read the section in Mel's POV where she details what happens when Rattleshirt dies.

p.s. Given that Stannis is soon to learn about Rickon (via the Manderlys) and possibly about Bran (via Weirnet), I'm guessing he doesn't kill Theon at the Weirwood trees, but uses him as a way to invade Winterfell. Like Theon said, the gods are not done with him... yet.

[TheWhiteRabbit]

The letter is written by Ramsey. If anything, Theon's sample chapter is there to support this, not confuse it. I understand why people might think it's Stannis, given his conversation with Justin Massey. But that conversation was in regards to the "false news" he'd be sending to Winterfell via the ravens he has from Maester Tybald. Let's examine why this is. When Stannis is interrogating the maester, he asks:

"Answer me. If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?" The king leaned forward. "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?"

Obviously the implication here is that Tybald has ravens that fly excusively to Winterfell and has been using them to betray Stannis' location to the Boltons. Now, why does this matter? Well:

The king leaned back in his chair. "Get him out of here," he commanded. "Leave the ravens."

Now, you could interpret this line as Stannis liking the company of two squawking ravens, OR you could interpret this as Stannis wanting the ravens close as he finds them to be invaluable; given that his use of them is being completely foreshadowed. (Why else put emphasis on it?)

So, now that we understand that Stannis intends to send a message to Winterfell, what would the contents of that message be?

Well, what better way to have your enemy lower his defenses, then to make him believe that he has nothing to fear? (making them think you're dead)

Here's a better question: When does Stannis send this fake message to the Boltons? Well, he has Arnolf Karstark in custody, so he could use him to have the letter written and his name signed before Bolton's allies arrive... but how could the handful of Karstarks overthrow the thousands of others under Stannis' command? Also, there were 7 days of battle, meaning the portion of the Boltons' strength did in fact reach Stannis. But who? Well, Roose already details the order in which his allies will march. Freys first, and behind them... the Manderlys. Call me crazy, but this sounds like the perfect opportunity for the Manderlys to kill 2 birds with one stone:

1) Revenge on the Freys

2) Proving to Stannis that they are in fact his allies

So, at whichever point, the Manderlys come to Stannis and prove their lealty by 1) betraying the Freys and 2) explaining what happened with Davos. A letter from Arnolf might seem queer, but a letter from both the Karstarks AND the Manderlys? Seeing the despiration currently at Winterfell, the Bolton's don't just want that reassurance, they need it. They need this news to resonate among the North, not only to quiet the tension in their own quarters (Winterfell), but to win the rest of the North to their favor. So, the Boltons accept Stannis' fake message as truth, without a second thought, which leads Ramsey to write his letter to Jon.

But what about Mance?

I've seen people suggesting that Stannis knows Mance is there, because Theon knows. How are people coming to this conclusion? Theon doesn't know who Abel actually is. I just reread all of Theon's chapters, and he never once calls Abel by a different name or alludes to knowing his true identity. Sure, he tells Asha of Abel and his washerwomen, but there's no way he told her that it was Mance and his spearwives. More than likely he probably paints them as some rebel northmen, or spies of Stannis (all of which I'm sure, to Asha, come off as the ramblings of a madman).

I too was once under the impression that the Pink Letter was from Stannis, but how can you reconcile that with the mention of Mance? Stannis has absolutely ZERO knowledge of Melissandre's trick, as detailed in Melissandre's POV. If you doubt that, please read the section in Mel's POV where she details what happens when Rattleshirt dies.

p.s. Given that Stannis is soon to learn about Rickon (via the Manderlys) and possibly about Bran (via Weirnet), I'm guessing he doesn't kill Theon at the Weirwood trees, but uses him as a way to invade Winterfell. Like Theon said, the gods are not done with him... yet.

This does seem to make sense and reconciles my doubts about some of the information in the letter being completely legitimate.

[bemused]

If you think Stannis has zero knowledge of of Mel's Rattleshirt / Mance glamour, I humbly suggest you've been missing the signs ( just as I did at first, second , I don't know how many glances ... because it wasn't the main question on my mind ) Going back to ASoS reading right through to Mel's chapter and the Theon gift chapter..there are many signs in things said , unsaid ,and strange gaps in logic that point to Stannis knowing all along.

The wildlings all know of Mances previous forays over the wall disguised as a singer.. it's one of the first things he relates to John .. Stannis has had hours of conversation with Mance , he may even know Mance's undercover name .

I don't have time to search the posts and link right now..I probably still have them on my computer I'll paste them over.

[aFeastForDragons]

Very Informative posts by fassreiter and pobeb.

I honestly don't know what to think anymore now.

[TheWhiteRabbit]

It's kind of curious that in the note Ramsay says he wants his Reek and bride back and the last we know of Theon and Jeyne are with Stannis. If Stannis had really been defeated the fighters Bolton sent would have located fake Arya and Theon or at least identified them if they had perished in the battle. This seems like information that would have definitely made it back to Ramsay whenever they sent word of winning the battle. I think this almost proves that Ramsay was definitely under false pretenses when writing his letter to Jon.

[bemused]

This is long , but see if you want to wade through it ;)

First off, I think it's pretty clear that Stannis knows Mel can work glamours generally , because of Lightbringer. Somewhere , it's said the sword has a large ruby on it's pommel.( Suggestive of Mance's cuff) .. Stannis knows the sword is not really what it's represented as being. He knows it generates no heat, and can't actually set anything alight. He lays it down on a map while discussing his plans with Jon. He knows it doesn't harm his wood and leather scabbard. At least as far as inanimate objects go, Stannis knows ...he's uncomfortable when Mel proclaims him to be AA and his sword ,"Lightbringer" at the audience of the nominees for Lord Commander. Later when Aemon asks to see the sword , he says , " Everyone else has seen the thing. Why not a blind man? " ... He's embarrassed and perhaps a bit contemptuous of the claim.

Looking back , Stannis and Jon's conversations , even in previous books ,would not rule out that Stannis was in on the Mance glamour . In fact , taking the scenes from ASoS, AFFC and ADWD as a whole , it strikes me as much less logical if he isn't in the know.

Back when Jon first meets Stannis ( ASoS p. 1055 , paperback ) , Jon gives Stannis his account of his involvement with the wildlings. Stannis has already heard Slynt (and Thorne's) version ( which uses Rattleshirt's "testimony" as evidence ) . When Jon is finished, Stannis says, " I believe you. " Startled , Jon asks why. Stannis snorts and replies, " I know Janos Slynt. And I knew Ned Stark as well .Your father was no friend of mine , but only a fool would doubt his honor or his honesty . You have his look. "

... I don't think Stannis is one to judge a person's character by appearance alone , but having known Ned , he'd have a good idea of the ethics Jon was raised with.

Stannis goes on to ask Jon if he thinks there's any honour to be found among the wildlings ( ASoS p.1057) , specifically in Mance and Rattleshirt . Jon says yes , in regard to Mance , but says Rattleshirt is treacherous and blood-thirsty.." If there's honour in him , he hides it down beneath his suit of bones. " ( unintentionally prophetic ... )

Stannis has already met both these men , as well as hearing various reports on Jon, including Maester Aemon's , since he knows about Jon defending CB and holding the gate. ... I suspect he's , in part , testing Jon to see if his assessment of Mance and Rattleshirt agrees with Stannis' own feeling.

At any rate , it's only logical to assume that if Stannis believes Jon and disbelieves Slynt ..and with Rattleshirt singing the tune Slynt wants to hear.. Stannis must know, even at this stage , that Rattleshirt is at least less than entirely truthful. And I would imagine Stannis is filing away Jon's "treacherous and bloodthirsty" description for future reference.

Later, in ADWD ( p.139), when "Rattleshirt" bends the knee at "Mance's" execution, Jon gives us a fuller estimation of the Lord of Bones:

" ... a small , malicious , treacherous man, as stupid as he is cruel. Jon did not believe for a moment that he would keep faith. " ...From his own observation, I doubt Stannis could have thought any better of him.

In the same ASoS chapter, we get our first sign of Stannis' conundrum... " .... I have been speaking with this Mance Rayder. " He ground his teeth." A stubborn man, that one, and prideful. He will leave me no choice but to give him to the flames." ... and follows on with his plans to settle wildlings on the Gift, those " who will swear me their fealty, pledge to keep the king's peace and the king's laws, and take the Lord of Light as their god. " ...If Mance won't go along with that , Stannis says he has other captives he can use / deal with - " the one who calls himself Lord of Bones , some other clan leaders , the new Magnar of Thenn."...

In ADWD, he's annoyed that word has leaked out that he's planning to grant lands and castles to Rattleshirt and the Magnar of Thenn. ( p.55) He doesn't confirm it or deny it, but he's angry and exasperated that it's in general discussion...and we know he does plan to settle wildlings on the Gift... So .. really ? Rattleshirt ? I find it hard to think Stannis would actually chance it.

In Mel's chapter, ( in fact this is the whole reason she reveals the glamour to Jon ) Mance tells Mel that Jon won't send Rattleshirt after Arya , that only a fool would trust Rattleshirt..and Jon isn't that... I'm sure Mance is astute enough, that he doesn't think Stannis is a fool either...and if he would tell Mel, why wouldn't he have told Stannis ? .. Stannis would surely have asked what he thought of Rattleshirt.

Continuing on to AFFC, ( pp. 112-113 , paperback ) Jon and Sam make reference to the circulating rumors that Stannis will burn Mance. While allowing that Mance attacked the realm ( which it is a king's duty to protect) Jon says , " I would sooner take off Mance's head myself. He was a man of the Night's Watch once . By rights , his life belongs to us." ..The NW had a claim to Mance's life first. ( Yet Jon repeatedly points out to Stannis the reasons for keeping Mance alive...which Stannis agrees are considerable , but.. )

Oddly ( or not ) , Stannis uses the same rationale as Jon in regard to killing Mance . He mentions Mance's offenses against the realm but always comes back to his offense against the NW.... " The man is a deserter from your order. Your brothers are all insisting on his death." (ASoS paperback , p.1056)

" ... even if he were to renounce his kingship, though ,the man remains an oath breaker.Suffer one deserter to live ,and you encourage others to desert . No. Laws should be made of Iron, not of pudding . Mance Rayder's life is forfeit by every law of the seven kingdoms." ... followed by ... "I'll burn him and the North will see how I deal with turncloaks and traitors." ( ADWD p.54 )

Yet as far back as ASoS..Stannis tells the assembled LC candidates , "It is not my wish to tamper with your rights and traditions. " ..Why not just turn Mance over to the Watch , then ? When did he decide to carry out the sentence himself ? The NW idea of justice would be hanging or beheading , not burning... so he is tampering to a degree ,anyway.

Have Stannis and Mance discussed the idea of renouncing kingship and the remaining problem of oathbreaking ? Did they find a solution ? ..Stannis calls Mance stubborn and prideful , but we know that Mance is also a negotiator. On at least two occasions , he brokered a peace between opposing bands of the free folk while he was working his way to becoming King Beyond the Wall. In hindsight , Stannis' prideful and stubborn comment brings to mind the one he made about Jon haggling like a crone with a codfish. He still found a way to work with Jon , without insisting Jon do everything his way.

As happens quite often , when it comes to tactical decisions , Stannis and Jon end up on the same page . Both see Mance's worth and Jon may even have a liking for him . It isn't really ambiguous that Jon can be willing to execute Mance, while arguing for Stannis letting Mance live ... As Stannis' prisoner ...well, a King can commute any sentence , or greatly temper it , even to the point of the reward outweighing the punishment ( Davos).... But if Mance was a NW prisoner, as LC , Jon would be willing to take his head off. Value or no ..liking or no.. Jon would really have no choice.

Stannis is canny . I'm sure he can see Jon's situation , especially as some NW still think Jon truly went over to Mance... And Stannis sees that Jon can cooly stick to the letter of the law when he executes Slynt. If Stannis really just insisted on Mance paying the price for desertion, why not let Jon exact it ? Stannis could still have burned any of the others to make a point with the wildlings ...( Rattleshirt would actually have been a good candidate, regardless ) ... In fact, letting Jon be executioner may have been better for Stannis , if the object is simply justice..since Stannis wants to attract wildling warriors to his cause. Any wildling resentment over Mance's death would have fallen on Jon ... all the awe still on Stannis and Mel.

When Mance is revealed to Jon , Mance and Mel never actually say Stannis doesn't know about the glamour they just slide around the question. They give that impression to Jon ( and us) without saying it outright. You can practically hear Stannis saying , as he said to Sam , " Not a word of this " in the background .

When Mel is relieved that Jon has the NW put the burning " Mance " out of his misery ( and Mel out of hers ) it might plausibly be because she doesn't want Stannis to know there's a limit to what she can sustain , rather than that she's deceiving Stannis as to Mance's identity. ( Let's not forget that during the whole ritual, Lightbringer is blazing like never before . If it's glamoured , she's also pouring a lot of her energy and will into that )... And if the flesh around her ruby began to smoke and blacken, she would be revealed as the unnatural being we know she is ( and it might not be pretty ). All of the awe , fear and reverence she strives to generate could have turned to hatred and revulsion , even from Stannis.

... It boils down to ..I think Stannis knows about the glamour and that he and Mance have some understanding ( I don't know what ) . To his benefit , Stannis will have continued access to Mance's knowledge and expertise , and when the dust has cleared , Mance will be able to have his own appearance, as well as some reward ( perhaps just like Stannis would grant northern holdings to his southern followers, Mance could have some place to raise his son where his appearance would not be generally known ? ..or some such). Mance wants his people south of the wall , so does Stannis. Mance is no stranger to going incognito and Stannis is no stranger to deception.. as long as he can appear to be above it .

[the sword in the night]

First post - yay !

I just finished aDwD, eager to read Theon's chapter ... but it seems nowhere to be found since Arianna's was posted ! Maybe one of you ctrl+c/ctrl+d it and could share it with me? Pretty please? :love:

This is what you want. someone passed it onto me earlier ;)

[the sword in the night]

oopps!

https://docs.google....HZVE/edit?pli=1

[bemused]

Just a few observations from glancing up thread ...a 7day battle would be an impossibility with medieval warfare. That would be man to man, hand to hand.. so the 7 days is a claim even Ramsay would know no one would believe. So it seems to be there for some other purpose..I don't know what. Mabe timing.. how long "Arya's been on her way ?... Maybe just by being so obviously untrue , it casts doubt on some of the other claims .

It would have leaped out at Jon and Tormund immediately . We can't hear Tormund's inflection when he speaks ..perhaps his comment should be read , "Might be ALL a skin o' lies." And Jon's reply , " No. There IS truth in there." ... which wouldn't sound as accepting of the whole letter as some would like to think.

I thought fassreiter's post was interesting and very well presented .. but I'd suggest Ramsay is unknowing as to the poetic devices he uses ( though very used to psychological threats and terror )...and GRRM is the poet ...working on us .

[Nelapsi]

oopps!

https://docs.google....HZVE/edit?pli=1

Thank you, that's awesome !

All your speculations are giving me a headache - and I'm loving it lol

[pobeb]

Giant wall of text

Which would rival the Wall of the NW, I might add (jk). I don't agree with everything you said, and I'm actually sort of annoyed at all your paraphrasing, but you did give me cause to reconsider my position on Stannis' knowledge of the Mance glamour. So, kudos to you :) However, it doesn't debunk my theory whatsoever because Stannis (as far as what's written) still doesn't know about Mance's rescue mission. Sure, you could assume Theon tells him about Abel, and you could assume Stannis pieces it together... but it's a stretch. Besides, announcing his deception (pretending to burn Mance) only serves to undermine his iron justice. Ramsey, however, would definitely benefit from each point in the letter becoming common knowledge.

Just a few observations from glancing up thread ...a 7day battle would be an impossibility with medieval warfare.

I'm becoming less convinced that you're trying to build your own theory, and more inclined to think that you're trying to discredit mine. I don't think 7 days of battle, in the snow, during a storm, is unreasonable at all. And as I've mentioned, there's a massive amount of tension in Winterfell when last we leave it, and I'm sure it only gets worse after "Arya" is stolen away. Remember, "Arya" was the one thing the Bolton's were using to hold that tremulous peace between them and the other Northerners. So, if Stannis sent a fake letter to Winterfell detailing his defeat in 7 days, why wouldn't the Bolton's accept it as truth? As I mentioned in my prior post, they don't just want this reassurance, they need it. As for the reasoning behind Stannis detailing 7 days of battle, well, I wonder how long it takes to get to Winterfell from his current position ;)