Theon Sample Chapter; The Letter sent to Jon (Spoilers)

[Jon Reborn]

Idk if this has been brought up or discussed, but when considering whether Stannis did or did not write this letter maybe Melisandre is a factor? She has "seen the path to victory in her flames" before, maybe she did this time and advised Stannis of a letter he must write to lord snow before they set out? This is the only way i see Stannis writing such a letter myself, but i could easily be wrong.

I think it would take Melisandre's insistence for Stannis to write the letter. Still can't see Stannis doing it though. Maybe if she was super insistent and said something along the lines of if you don't write it your cause is doomed, then referred to the Battle of the Blackwater, where Stannis didn't listen to her and lost.

Not sure how Mel would know about Reek, though.

[CBroome1979]

I think it definitely involves Stannis' planned deception. Something along the lines of 'Here's the sword, Ramsay, we kicked his ass, but Theon and Arya got away'. Stannis might have just been wanting Ramsay to chase Arya north so he'd have less resistance in the castle, but apparently Ramsay is in full-on panic mode, because the gig will be up whenever fake Arya gets to the Wall and spoils the 'Heir to Winterfell' deception Roose had going on. As for the hostages Ramsay demands...why not? Isn't it better to demand too much then not enough? The planned deception 'could' be enough to provide all this false information to Ramsay, who in turn would act rashly.

[Mayura]

Good theory, I never thought of Stannis writing the letter. However, Stannis certainly knows everything that's happening at the wall. It is mentionned in one of the Asha chapters of the Dance that Stannis and Melisandre can communicate through fire. And Asha mentions Stannis lights up a fire every night and spends all of his time in front of it.

So this makes the first post's theory perfectly believable. However, I don't think it's in Stannis' character, Stannis seems rather just. But GRRM can have played us all along ;)

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

Then why does mel say she's having so much trouble even SEEING stannis? How would asha know what stannis can do with the flames, she said he was searching for his red woman. Not communicating. And I agree stannis does not seem likely to do anything false. He is too honest. He's iron strong and sharp but too much pressure and its sure to shatter

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

The letter is so ramasy. The language in it. Seems so relatiable to the bastard of bolton that I couldn't see anyone else writing it. And if stannis found out mance was still alive. He'd be quite upset by melissandre's lies.

[Tam Lin]

Seems to me the only people with "ready access" (ie, without somewhat implausible sharing of information between characters or across large distances) to the information contained in the letter are Ramsay or Mance himself.

If it is a ruse on Mance's part, I'm not sure what game he is playing at. The original post posits that Stannis wrote the letter to manipulate Jon, but others have rejected this as "not in character." I agree. But this sort of superficially clever (but probably misguided) manipulation is exactly what we might expect from Melisandre. Is it conceivable that she still has a measure of control over Mance or a means of communicating directly with him, and that she instigated the letter?

The language used in the letter is strikingly similar to Theon's. Food for thought.

[CBroome1979]

The language is strikingly similar to Theon's...who in turn has been abused in every way by Ramsay Bolton and has learned to go along with Ramsay's train of thought or suffer the consequences. True, we don't have the flayed flesh from the previous letters, which casts some doubt on Ramsay being the author. But the letter SOUNDS Ramsay, and I'm not sure, but I don't think the other Principal Suspects have seen the other Ramsay letters (I fully realize I could be wrong on this). How plentiful is pink wax?

I have no reason to suspect that Mance has not been captured...if the six washerwomen are found out as accomplices (or dead from the escape), then Abel is probably implicated in the act, and I don't think Ramsay or Roose has problems with putting anyone to torture who might even be thought of as complicit with plans against them.

Stannis is not above deception, prior to what some might think, but first of all, why would he put his wife and daughter at risk if he misjudged Jon and Jon actually DID send them down to Winterfell. Second of all, what does he hope to gain by doing this? A few hundred footmen? He'd probably lose that many from the cold and starvation by the time they arrived. He also indicates he wants to 'pay his debts' by returning fake Arya to Jon...why send a raven before she gets back to demand her as an additional hostage?

Asha poses an interesting possibility, but what does she hope to gain? She's almost imprisoned within the Stannis camp, and all these hostages would come south and just be returned by Stannis.

Roose could have done it, but he doesn't have the personality to 'flip out' like that, from what we've seen.

[redriver]

I see numerous posts stating this sounds so much like Ramsay or Theon,usually unsupported by any text.

There's a couple of posts on this page,which indicates it sounds very much like Mance.

http://asoiaf.wester...ip/page__st__40

[ab aeterno]

I see numerous posts stating this sounds so much like Ramsay or Theon,usually unsupported by any text.

There's a couple of posts on this page,which indicates it sounds very much like Mance.

http://asoiaf.wester...ip/page__st__40

Not from this thread, or that one, but I'm strongly leaning towards Mance now from the "Mance FTW" thread. Not totally convinced, but more convinced than I am of any of the others. Ramsay excluded because he is the default choice.

[Budj]

I think Mance is off the grid of Mel's initial intentions. I agree with the Northern Conspiracy plot, I agree that Mance must have done something in-between the time he has spent at WF and at the Wall, and I suspect that some of the Northern houses have had more interaction with the wildlings than they care to admit - this last part isn't necessary, but I think contextually makes sense.

If you take all the evidence of these plots and ask what motivation Mance has it becomes pretty clear. But let's start with what we have so far...

If the North wants to get Jon on the throne then it makes sense they would use the letter to lure him to WF with the named hostages. They make great bargaining chips to either make Stannis concede or agree to independence for the North before they join his fight to oust the current occupants of the IT.

Also consider that Roose/Ramsay could not have written this letter. If Arya is at the wall there would be ravens throughout all of Westeros letting the world know that Arya is Jeyne and then their claim in the North is moot as far as the Northern lords are concerned. They know that Jon would know that Arya is fake, however, if you consider that the North doesn't want Jon to realize Arya is a fake then it makes sense to include that in this letter because then you have a situation where Jon does not have Arya and he thinks she is out somewhere in danger. She isn't safe - this would influence Jon's decision making process to leave the wall and intercept the Boltons if they are marching to the wall / prevent them from seeking Arya. At worst buy her some time and die, at best, take them out and live...

Now where does Mance fit in? Currently Mance's people are held up at the wall. Some acclimated well, but most are essentially hostages at a mostly well-treated prison camp. He wants better for them and knows Jon is a sympathizer. Some might even say Jon is half-wildling at this point due to the time he spent living with and learning about them. With Jon as King (or just leader) of the North then Mance assures that his people are accepted south of the wall and potentially even assimilated (as much as they can be) into the Northern culture...obviously the South might be too much culture shock, haha.

I think a lot of the events point to these potential outcomes and these motivations fit with the actions of characters in the plot.

[ab aeterno]

I think Mance is off the grid of Mel's initial intentions. I agree with the Northern Conspiracy plot, I agree that Mance must have done something in-between the time he has spent at WF and at the Wall, and I suspect that some of the Northern houses have had more interaction with the wildlings than they care to admit - this last part isn't necessary, but I think contextually makes sense.

If you take all the evidence of these plots and ask what motivation Mance has it becomes pretty clear. But let's start with what we have so far...

If the North wants to get Jon on the throne then it makes sense they would use the letter to lure him to WF with the named hostages. They make great bargaining chips to either make Stannis concede or agree to independence for the North before they join his fight to oust the current occupants of the IT.

Also consider that Roose/Ramsay could not have written this letter. If Arya is at the wall there would be ravens throughout all of Westeros letting the world know that Arya is Jeyne and then their claim in the North is moot as far as the Northern lords are concerned. They know that Jon would know that Arya is fake, however, if you consider that the North doesn't want Jon to realize Arya is a fake then it makes sense to include that in this letter because then you have a situation where Jon does not have Arya and he thinks she is out somewhere in danger. She isn't safe - this would influence Jon's decision making process to leave the wall and intercept the Boltons if they are marching to the wall / prevent them from seeking Arya. At worst buy her some time and die, at best, take them out and live...

Now where does Mance fit in? Currently Mance's people are held up at the wall. Some acclimated well, but most are essentially hostages at a mostly well-treated prison camp. He wants better for them and knows Jon is a sympathizer. Some might even say Jon is half-wildling at this point due to the time he spent living with and learning about them. With Jon as King (or just leader) of the North then Mance assures that his people are accepted south of the wall and potentially even assimilated (as much as they can be) into the Northern culture...obviously the South might be too much culture shock, haha.

I think a lot of the events point to these potential outcomes and these motivations fit with the actions of characters in the plot.

Good points all, I think. This argument, combined with the ones on the thread below, really make me think that Mance is the frontrunner. Admittedly, at first I thought he was very unlikely, but I'm almost ready to nail my colors to the mast on this one.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/72869-mance-ftw/

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

I agree mance after ramasy. But I still don't think the language in the letter seems likely to mance. It does for him to pose as ramasy. But How would he get a raven to the wall? I mean we saw when theon was escaping that the spearwives were being shot with arrows. As soon as those spearwives were caught they were singing the song and giving up abel as mance. No one lasts under the flaying knife. So why would mance/abel not be put to the question with his "washerwomen" you can't think they weren't caught. Cause that seems farstretched. Jeyene missing would drive ramasy into a rage and reek included he would be going crazy to get them back. Acting a fool. The letter is missing a piece of spearwife like his letter to asha had a piece of prince. But that's not too important a detail if he did use their skin to make mance a cloak.

[ab aeterno]

I agree mance after ramasy. But I still don't think the language in the letter seems likely to mance. It does for him to pose as ramasy. But How would he get a raven to the wall? I mean we saw when theon was escaping that the spearwives were being shot with arrows. As soon as those spearwives were caught they were singing the song and giving up abel as mance. No one lasts under the flaying knife. So why would mance/abel not be put to the question with his "washerwomen" you can't think they weren't caught. Cause that seems farstretched. Jeyene missing would drive ramasy into a rage and reek included he would be going crazy to get them back. Acting a fool. The letter is missing a piece of spearwife like his letter to asha had a piece of prince. But that's not too important a detail if he did use their skin to make mance a cloak.

Do we have a definitive time frame for when the letter was sent? Because Mance helped arrange Theon and Jeyne's escape, it would be reasonable to assume that he sent the letter beforehand, if he did indeed write the letter, knowing that the suspicion would be on him and the spearwives afterwards.

[Nordling]

All those theories about Stannis faking his defeat.. The only proof that backs the theory is the sentence in Ramsay's letter to Jon: ''And I want my Reek.'' But on the other hand the Northmen might've executed Theon already, which is why he wasn't found when Stannis' army was destroyed(according to the letter).

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

Do we have a definitive time frame for when the letter was sent? Because Mance helped arrange Theon and Jeyne's escape, it would be reasonable to assume that he sent the letter beforehand, if he did indeed write the letter, knowing that the suspicion would be on him and the spearwives afterwards.

I mean before they botched the escape, was there any need for the letter? Its very complicated. My money is on ramsay writting it. Or mel commanding mance too.

[ab aeterno]

I mean before they botched the escape, was there any need for the letter? Its very complicated. My money is on ramsay writting it. Or mel commanding mance too.

I suppose it depends on whether Mance had a plan. If he had a plan, and if he wrote the letter, it makes sense for him to have sent it just before the escape. Ramsay is stil the conventional option, certainly, but I like Mance more and more as it is being discussed on the forums.

[redriver]

I suppose it depends on whether Mance had a plan. If he had a plan, and if he wrote the letter, it makes sense for him to have sent it just before the escape. Ramsay is stil the conventional option, certainly, but I like Mance more and more as it is being discussed on the forums.

Just to say first that I don't rule any of the main suspects out,but the case for the likes of Stannis,Mel or Asha requires more complicated events to have happened since Theon and Jeyne jumped.

The link I provided upthread shows language,words and phrases that appear in the letter.These were all used in Jon's presence,either as Mance or Rattleshirt.The "false king" phrase was used by Mel in their presence,but would have rankled with Mance.

My point is not that Mance used these words without thought.They were deliberately chosen to let Jon know that Mance wrote the letter,but make it appear like Ramsay.

This gives Jon a legitimate reason to answer a direct threat to the LC by heading to Winterfell-(not oathbreaking,imo),and the real reason,to find his sister,help Mance and Winterfell,and bring Wildlings.

The letter is virtually guaranteed to be read out to everyone.The last Ramsay letter sent was,and that was relatively mild toned.And this ensures that whatever Wildlings are at the Wall get to hear that their king is alive and in a spot of bother.

Other less obvious points in the letter are intended to strike a cord as well.Mance in a cage?That doesn't sound like a Bolton signature.Mance being slowly flayed,here's a piece of skin, does.But "Mance" was burned in a cage.Jon watched it.

The skins of six whores suggests Varamyr Sixskins subliminally,a character well known to Jon and Mance.

I don't doubt Mance had a plan (or ploy).Theon thinks Abel wants info about the crypts to plan an escape,partly true imo,but also as a hiding place,amongst other things.

The technicalities of getting a raven,writing the letter,and getting pink wax are all details that can be handled easily by Martin.

The raven may have been pre-acquired and hidden,the letter part written and hidden,the pink wax stolen,or created by ordinary wax and some blood.Either way,none of these practicalities are an issue,really.

I would say some of the spearwives were caught,Mance escapes into hiding and sends the letter,knowing he has nothing to lose.

[mindcrash]

I think this whole thing has become too convoluted.

Ramsay wrote the letter. Whether he's writing it under false knowledge, that's what remains to be seen.

Personally, I think he is. I think he has Mance, I think he killed the spearwives, and I think he has Lightbringer. I don't think Stannis is dead or defeated. In fact, my money is on him pulling a reverse-Bolton (you know, the plan Arya enabled in Harrenhall). Perhaps the Manderly's (and Manderly's dressed as Freys) brought in prisoners from the "battle". This would get a goodly amount of men inside WF ready to be set free to take the castle from the inside out and open a gate for the rest of Stannis' forces.

Makes a lot more sense to me than these other crackpot theories.

[mindcrash]

Actually, now that I think about it, maybe the most shocking thing would be for GRRM to reveal in WOW that Ramsay told it all true.

[redriver]

I think this whole thing has become too convoluted.

Ramsay wrote the letter. Whether he's writing it under false knowledge, that's what remains to be seen.

Personally, I think he is. I think he has Mance, I think he killed the spearwives, and I think he has Lightbringer. I don't think Stannis is dead or defeated. In fact, my money is on him pulling a reverse-Bolton (you know, the plan Arya enabled in Harrenhall). Perhaps the Manderly's (and Manderly's dressed as Freys) brought in prisoners from the "battle". This would get a goodly amount of men inside WF ready to be set free to take the castle from the inside out and open a gate for the rest of Stannis' force

Makes a lot more sense to me than these other crackpot theories.

Reinventing convoluted.