“The Watch Takes No Part:” Analyzing Jon’s “Oathbreaking”

[butterbumps!]

And he doesn't if he's beaten either. The time to march is when Stannis needs help, not when he doesn't need it (either due to defeat or victory).

If Jon believes the letter he should think the hill tribesmen and the Mormonts went down with Stannis. He should be unsure if Arnolf's men were exposed or if they betrayed Stannis and are now with Bolton. The survival of the anti-Bolton Umbers should also be in doubt. In CoK and DwD it is made clear the Karstark lands have no more men. So, Jon can only count on the wildlings and not all of them seeing as some will have to go with Tormund.

He hasn't been following the situation with Manderly and has no reason to believe he has not thrown in his lot with Bolton, which is likely, given Jon thinks the Boltons won the battle. In the early chapters he suggests Mandy has not joined Bolton because Mel didn't see his banners in her vision of barrowtown!

And Jon probably did commit himself to attack WF because he roused the wildlings through telling them Mance was there. He has actually tied his hands regarding his course of action before sending out scouts so he can plan a half decent campaign.

Jon is starting an attempt to dislodge the Boltons when he thinks the pro-Stark forces are beaten, when he thinks the Boltons hold WF, and when he has only 1,000 or so thoroughly undisciplined troops and proposes to lead them through appalling weather conditions. GrrM makes clear Jon and Ned think discipline beats indiscipline nine times out of ten (see also Qhorin for this).

GrrM is clearly portraying Jon as a very bad leader at this point, its just his arc is slightly behind that of Dany in this respect, because Jon became a leader later.

I agree with Maia. Its really a re-run of the GoT desertion.

I disagree about the hopelessness. We are at an impasse, it seems. My view is that the presence of one of the Ned's would be enough to change many loyalties of those who remain. A big battle with Stannis would mean that forces fighting for the Boltons would have likely suffered losses as well. Truly, I think that this is significantly more flexible than you do. I've tried to explain this before, but the battle for the North is not exactly like a "normal" battle. Even if every House does not love Stark and would be willing to support one by virtue of being Ned's, it is widely known that the other Northmen do not like the Boltons. Truly, I believe that this is far more malleable than you, and I believe that it's made more so by the fact that Jon knows the Bolton's hold goes only so far as Ramsay's marriage to Arya, who he knows is no longer at Winterfell.

Pro-Stark forces that are beaten because they have lost their commander (Stannis) would not necessarily remain so if another commander, especially a "Stark" came forth to rally them.

Martin is NOT portraying Jon as a bad leader here. Jon did not march with Stannis earlier because there was hope that Stannis could take care of this on his own. Jon's however increasingly seen the quality of Knights in Stannis' retinue (by proxy of the Southron Queen's men at the Wall), and it wouldn't be a stretch to assume that Jon's bringing men accustomed to fighting in the cold would have a better shot of dealing with this issue. I agree that the NW should have neutrality- it makes a lot of sense given what I understand of its history and is ordinarily necessary. By not jumping the gun and marching earlier with Stannis, Jon was trying to hold to the custom of neutrality for as long as he could. Hope was a significant part of this. Since Stannis was taking care of this issue, Jon did not have to get involved, because there was still someone else who understood the importance of doing this, and was in a reasonable position to do so.

Now that Stannis seems defeated, Jon realizes that HE is the only one who can restore order, if there is a chance of its being restored at all. I think that Martin is portraying Jon as a good leader. It is debatable whether or not he is portraying Jon as a good NW leader, but that all depends on precisely how we interpret the ramifications of Jon's actions, and whether marching on Ramsay is in the best interest of the Watch apart from his motivations. First, he had to "kill the boy" to be able to do his job. Then he has to "kill the vow/ custom" in order to do what is right. I would think less of Jon if he did not march and answer this threat. And the fact that he has won over hundred if not thousands of men speak volumes about his abilities as a leader here. This is Jon taking up the mantle of leading when he realizes that there is no one else left who can do this. Staying at the Wall and waiting for Ramsay/ turning over hostages is actually the easy thing to do in my view. Which is a very different situation than Jon marching with Robb- who was the figurehead/ leader that was needed- and wanting to leave due to just being with his family in a war for Northern independence. This battle with Ramsay DOES affect the Watch and Jon's own safety. I don't understand how to interpret that is does not affect the Watch.

[The Lost Lord]

Has anyone mentioned in this thread yet that Jon sent the wildling king on a secret mission to steal the Lord of Winterfell's bride, purely to save his sister and not for any "greater good of the realm" rationalization? Has anyone reckoned with the fact that this was basically a declaration of war on the Boltons? That it was enormously risky to the Watch and did in fact end up going horribly wrong and exposing Jon's meddling? That it is the direct cause of Ramsay's threatening letter?

[Chaircat Meow]

Has anyone mentioned in this thread yet that Jon sent the wildling king on a secret mission to steal the Lord of Winterfell's bride, purely to save his sister and not for any "greater good of the realm" rationalization? Has anyone reckoned with the fact that this was basically a declaration of war on the Boltons? That it was enormously risky to the Watch and did in fact end up going horribly wrong and exposing Jon's meddling? That it is the direct cause of Ramsay's threatening letter?

Hi Lost Lord. I liked your posts about this issue in the old threads and yeah its been pointed out on other recent threads. Folks ain't all buying it though. I agree there are no grounds for thinking the letter was unprovoked at all and that Jon has declared war on the Boltons. They can't be blamed for wanting rid of him and the letter doesn't threaten the watch, only its LC.

[Dr. Pepper]

Has anyone mentioned in this thread yet that Jon sent the wildling king on a secret mission to steal the Lord of Winterfell's bride, purely to save his sister and not for any "greater good of the realm" rationalization? Has anyone reckoned with the fact that this was basically a declaration of war on the Boltons? That it was enormously risky to the Watch and did in fact end up going horribly wrong and exposing Jon's meddling? That it is the direct cause of Ramsay's threatening letter?

Jon did not send Mance on any secret mission to steal anyone's bride. Mel said that a girl would be coming to Castle Black on a dying horse and that she thought to send Mance to meet her and escort her the rest of the way to the wall. Jon did not make the plan nor did he order or suggest that Mance do this. Jon apparently agreed with this as he would have been duty-bound to execute Mance otherwise. He had no knowledge of Mance going to Winterfell until the letter arrived.

[TheOnionKnight]

^{Except that Jon didn't send him. Melissandre did. She saved him, she concocted the plan. He allowed it to happen, sure. I guess he could have arrested Mance, alienated Mel and her followers and Selyse and her knights and followers. Would that have been better? Doubtful.}

[LuisDantas]

Non-interference is such an unattainable goal...

[butterbumps!]

I tried to address that issue last week in your Bowen Marsh appreciation thread.

1. Mel had Jon cornered and told him she was sending Mance to find Arya. Jon didn't exactly come up with this plan.

2. What- at that point- was Jon going to do? Mance had just kicked his ass on the practice field, so I doubt Jon could have gotten out his handcuffs and detained him in an orderly fashion. Even if he had managed to subdue Mance, how was he going to prove that he was actually Mance? Pray that Mel cooperated with him and released the glamor? Fessed up to everyone at the Wall at she'd tricked her king into burning the wrong guy?

3. Jon "agreed" to have Mance intercept "Arya" at Long Lake- he wasn't intended to go into Winterfell and steal her directly.

4. Removing Arya is effectively removing the Boltons.

[Chaircat Meow]

^{Except that Jon didn't send him. Melissandre did. She saved him, she concocted the plan. He allowed it to happen, sure. I guess he could have arrested Mance, alienated Mel and her followers and Selyse and her knights and followers. Would that have been better? Doubtful.}

No, Jon sent Mance. The plan was proposed to him by Mel and he agreed. If he is the LC of the NW he doesn't let things happen like that, he had an alternative course of action and he decided not to pursue it, choosing Mel's plan.

Jon gave no instructions to Mance to proceed no further than Long Lake or wherever else. He agreed because he had certain information but the mission was to save Arya. He knew what he was getting into and didn't ask many questions about how Mance was going to conduct himself.

[Chaircat Meow]

I tried to address that issue last week in your Bowen Marsh appreciation thread.

1. Mel had Jon cornered and told him she was sending Mance to find Arya. Jon didn't exactly come up with this plan.

2. What- at that point- was Jon going to do? Mance had just kicked his ass on the practice field, so I doubt Jon could have gotten out his handcuffs and detained him in an orderly fashion. Even if he had managed to subdue Mance, how was he going to prove that he was actually Mance? Pray that Mel cooperated with him and released the glamor? Fessed up to everyone at the Wall at she'd tricked her king into burning the wrong guy?

3. Jon "agreed" to have Mance intercept "Arya" at Long Lake- he wasn't intended to go into Winterfell and steal her directly.

4. Removing Arya is effectively removing the Boltons.

All of which I responded to on my thread.

[butterbumps!]

You know, saying that "Jon sent Mance" is kind of like saying Gerald Hightower boiled Rickard. Both kind of just stood by. Which is problematic, to be sure, but I'm not certain that Jon could have actually restrained Mance in this situation and prevented it (which is what I'm sure Hightower also thought).

All of which I responded to on my thread.

Yea, you just kept insisting that Jon sent him. And used this as justification for Bowen stabbing him. Despite the fact that Bowen didn't actually know that "Jon antagonized Ramsay" first.

[The Lost Lord]

Um, pretty cut and dry from the text that Jon sent him:

A grey girl on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage. On the strength of those words he had loosed Mance Rayder and six spearwives on the north. “Young ones, and pretty,” Mance had said. The unburnt king supplied some names, and Dolorous Edd had done the rest, smuggling them from Mole’s Town. It seemed like madness now. He might have done better to strike down Mance the moment he revealed himself. Jon had a certain grudging admiration for the late King-Beyond-the- Wall, but the man was an oathbreaker and a turncloak. He had even less trust in Melisandre. Yet somehow here he was, pinning his hopes on them. All to save my sister. But the men of the Night’s Watch have no sisters.

[Ragnorak]

When the Seven Kingdoms had separate Kings, the NW would have sent letters to all those Kings if they were under attack as they were in DwD. The understanding in Westeros of the Watch and its purpose would not have required a LC to send a paper shield to any of the other kings explaining why they are hosting the army that just saved their collective asses. Stannis, despite whatever selfish aspects he had for coming to the Wall is doing the "right thing." Davos did not lay out a plan to win over the North by defending the Wall. He stole a bastard boy to save that boy's life in a somewhat treasonous gesture to make the statement to Stannis that a King protects his people or he is no King at all. He was staking his life on a choice to do the right thing regardless of his vows to Stannis.

Jon has several moments where he stakes his life on his decisions to do the right thing. Hardhome is one of them and he says as much to Selyse at the beginning of his last chapter. When he is "abandoning his vows" to go to Winterfell he still made accommodations for the Hardhome rescue. This alone places his decision to go to Winterfell in an entirely different light than his desire to desert in GoT.

Jon's time at the Wall is spent in almost a purely reactionary position starting with his actual appointment as LC. Letting the Wildlings through the Wall and arranging the Alys marriage were somewhat proactive but in both cases they had planted themselves on his doorstep. After GoT he's a guy who has decided to keep his vows period. Every situation where he skirts, bends or otherwise tests the limits of his vows is the result of a reactionary position to external forces-- even his choice to go to Winterfell. In all these cases he attempts to apply his vows or at least weighs what he thinks the vows tell him to do and then eventually decides to do what is right within a framework that is as close to his vows as possible.

The only difference at the end is in the Shield Hall where he thinks his brothers are useless and a case can be made for a choice to deliberately violate those vows-- but given provisions for Hardhome not that he is abandoning the right thing. Ramsay's letter qualifies as the paper sword response to the paper shield he sent the Iron Throne. Jon is still in a reactionary position to external pressures. Based on the letter Arya escaped so purely in regard to Arya there is arguably less immediate family reason to march to Winterfell than before. It is pretty clear that if Stannis is dead and the Boltons are in charge that they are going to kill Jon. He has Slynt and Thorne returning from KL trying to kill him and trying to have Benjen declared a traitor in abstentia. The Ramsay letter makes clear that the Bolton view is the same as the Lannister one.

Stannis is the King that learns to do the right thing, to embrace the spirit of what it means to be the protector of the realm. He and Jon are both characters that shed an early selfish hue of entitlement and choose to struggle to do the right thing in an imperfect and contradictory world.

[Chaircat Meow]

You know, saying that "Jon sent Mance" is kind of like saying Gerald Hightower boiled Rickard. Both kind of just stood by. Which is problematic, to be sure, but I'm not certain that Jon could have actually restrained Mance in this situation and prevented it (which is what I'm sure Hightower also thought).

No its not. Jon commands 300 men at CB and can easily restrain Mance. He might have to retreat from the immediate situation and summon his men but he can do it with no real difficulty.

And its Jon's choice because he is the individual in authority. Its his castle. Its his man he sends to get Mance his spear-wives (thus facilitating the plan).

Mel was also asking him to consent to it. It was explicitly represented as his choice. Honestly, I've never heard anything quite so ludicrous as this claim Jon is not responsible for Mance trying to save Arya.

And btw Jon never says go and get my sister at Long Lake. The plan is to save Arya and Jon is just told she's on her way but clearly, later, doesn't trust Mel's visions very much. Its best to say he sent Mance to collect Arya, fortified by the thought she would be in x location. He knows he can't control Mance and clearly hopes Mance will save Arya even after Alys shows up.

All of which I said. If you don't agree fine. Don't pretend I didn't give you an answer though.

Edit: I did say on the other thread why I felt Jon's behaviour and the way the letter was read made it reasonable for Bowen to assume the LC had actually been provoking the Boltons. Given Jon was clearly already burning his bridges there was no time for him to find out if the accusations were true. There is no way in hell he had to assume they were false though.

[butterbumps!]

Um, pretty cut and dry from the text that Jon sent him:

I said he didn't stop it. His thoughts reflect the fact that if any ill should come of this, he feels responsible for it. I mean, Mel isn't going to rectify things if they go wrong, and he's saying that the buck stops with him. But if you look at the actual arrangement that transpired, it was clearly Mel's idea, clearly supposed to be an interception along the road, made no mention of Winterfell or any side business. Jon enabled it. I haven't denied that. It was a different mission than how it panned out.

[Chaircat Meow]

You know, if Qyburn says to Cersei, would you like to me to poison this guy who is trying to kill you, and Cersei indicates she would, and buys Qyburn poisons, and then he does poison the person even though they were not plotting, no one would say Cersei did not order Qyburn to poison x, 'she just stood aside.'

Looks pretty analogous to me.

[Chaircat Meow]

I said he didn't stop it. His thoughts reflect the fact that if any ill should come of this, he feels responsible for it. I mean, Mel isn't going to rectify things if they go wrong, and he's saying that the buck stops with him. But if you look at the actual arrangement that transpired, it was clearly Mel's idea, clearly supposed to be an interception along the road, made no mention of Winterfell or any side business. Jon enabled it. I haven't denied that. It was a different mission than how it panned out.

All leaders act on plans given to them by advisors. So, the fact Mel came up with the plan is utterly, totally irrelevant. She submitted it to Jon for approval and he indicated he wanted it put in place, by getting Mance the spear-wives if nothing else.

Jon never says anything about calling it off if there is no interception and clearly was at least dubious Mel was even right. Even if he had done, he is still responsible for someone he sent on a mission being 'imaginative' with his requests. What if Arya had been snatched just before Mance arrived at LL? Jon gives no orders what to do in that circumstance but if Mance did take action would we be saying Jon did not 'send' him to do that and so isn't responsible. I wouldn't be.

It was pretty damn obvious side business was planned and Jon didn't say anything to stop this.

[MrsManderly]

Bran, hats off, you sure are persistent on these Jon and Ides of Marsh threads!

I totally agree with 90% of what you're saying but I have to admit I gave it up for a bad job after being (figuratively) bashed on the head by opposing views from half a dozen people.

Well done for persevering :thumbsup:

[The Lost Lord]

I said he didn't stop it. His thoughts reflect the fact that if any ill should come of this, he feels responsible for it.

No. He thinks that "he had loosed Mance Rayder and six spearwives on the north." He had loosed. Not, "he had stood aside and decided not to intefere while Melisandre loosed Mance." Jon thinks he did it. Cut and dry.

It was a different mission than how it panned out.

Sure, Jon hoped Arya would be at the lake. And what should Mance do if she wasn't there? Did Jon just somehow fail to consider this possibility (which would be amazingly stupid of him)? Or did he leave Mance with the general guidance of "find my sister"? Jon thinks of the mission as, "to save my sister." Jon knew Mance had infiltrated Winterfell before posing as a singer. Mance mentioned that he needed 6 spearwives for a certain gambit he had in mind. If Jon thought even one step ahead of "what if Arya's not at the lake," the obvious and clear next step is "she's still at Winterfell." At the very least he should have explicitly forbidden Mance to go there to avoid declaring war on the Boltons. Either Jon explicitly authorized the Winterfell next step, or he was just not interested in confronting these questions, preferring instead to cross his fingers and hope he could have his cake and eat it too and that everything would work out hunky-dory. Instead, pink letter.

[Budj]

Judging by Jon's internal thoughts during Mance's absence when the vision Mel saw came to fruition (Alys arrival with no Mance) I think we can draw the conclusion that Jon was anticipating Mance's return if LL was a miss....

I agree as far as Jon is indirectly responsible for Mance infiltrating WF....

At the end of the day though I don't think arguing this with any of you is going to solve anything because it's pretty clear you all wanted Jon to draft out every single possible hiccup and order it not to be done to cover his ass before you agree he wasn't directly responsible...which is pretty much impossible for him to do...

Defending Marsh is also beyond me...while connected to the "sides" forming here... that is a totally different thread.

[The Lost Lord]

Judging by Jon's internal thoughts during Mance's absence when the vision Mel saw came to fruition (Alys arrival with no Mance) I think we can draw the conclusion that Jon was anticipating Mance's return if LL was a miss....

Here are Jon's thoughts, which can basically be paraphrased as "pleasefindArya, pleasefindArya, pleasefindArya":

Jon walked to the edge of the Wall and gazed down upon the killing ground where Mance Rayder’s host had died. He wondered where Mance was now. Did he ever find you, little sister? Or were you just a ploy he used so I would set him free?

It had been so long since he had last seen Arya. What would she look like now? Would he even know her? Arya Underfoot. Her face was always dirty. Would she still have that little sword he’d had Mikken forge for her? Stick them with the pointy end, he’d told her. Wisdom for her wedding night if half of what he heard of Ramsay Snow was true. Bring her home, Mance. I saved your son from Melisandre, and now I am about to save four thousand of your free folk. You owe me this one little girl.

it's pretty clear you all wanted Jon to draft out every single possible hiccup and order it not to be done to cover his ass before you agree he wasn't directly responsible...which is pretty much impossible for him to do...

"What should Mance do if Arya's not at the lake?" is an amazingly obvious question, literally the first thing one would think of when trying to plan this.