About Aegon and Connington's next move (TWOW spoilers)

[Volantis]

Quick note: a pretender in this context is anyone declaring a claim to a position (e.g. the throne) without currently occupying it. So once "Aegon" is revealed he will be the very definition of a pretender.

That means Danearys is a pretender too

[Elohssa]

Jon is in the Night's Watch, he refused being Lord of Winterfell and the North, I think he would refuse The Iron Throne too even if the situation was set for him. Duty and honor is the most important thing for him, just as it was for Ned.

Jon died or is close enough to death that it doesn't matter. His watch has ended leaving him ready to do whatever.

[Elohssa]

I think Aegon will have the Storm Lands and an alliance with Dorne, through marriage, and start chiping away at the Reach before KL pulls it collective head out of its arse. Thank Varys for keeping Cersei in charge.

[Lady of Dragonstone]

Note: I modified the above quote. The portion which is now underlined was not originally underlined.

The tyrells can gain alot in winds. But if Margery is pronounced guilty by the faith and UnGregor wins Cersei's freedom (proves her innocence). KL would rapidly go back into the hands of Cersei making the lannisters a player once again.

We should also consider the fact that Vary's wants cersei in control of King's landing becuase she is such a terrible ruler. If, as some people suspect, the High Sparrow is being manipulated by Vary's, then Margery will certianly be pronounced guilty and Cersei will be pronounced innocent.

This would effectively dissolve any alliance between the Tyrells and the Lannisters. So what will highgarden be able to do other than support Aegon.

Does anyone else think (like I do) that Vary's is that good?

This is a good point that I haven't really seen on here. If Varys is truly supporting fAegon's claim, then naturally he will want Cersei on the throne because at the moment the Lannisters are weaker than the Tyrells. The Tyrells are only thinking of themselves at the moment, and the announcement of fAegon's return will rock them. IF Varys could rig this so that the above were true, this would be the perfect setup and would leave KL completely vulnerable and the Tyrells scrambling. Whether or not Varys is capable of this can depend on several factors, but on a whole I want to say yes, it's feasible for Varys to pull this off. He is quite convincing, and as we've seen before, high-powered religious figures in Westeros can be a bit skewed. Even if all these things align as such, I don't think we will see fAegon in KL in the upcoming book. I think JC's focus will be on more southron Houses, knowing that fAegon is not likely to carry much weight since popular belief is that he is dead.

[bent branch]

I don't think Varys needs to be manipulating the Faith for things to go very wrong for Margery. The Faith does not like having Tommen on the throne. If you will recall, the reason Cersei allowed the Faith to rearm themselves is because the last Septon didn't want to give Tommen the Faith's blessing. Cersei felt that it would be practically impossible for Tommen (or her as Tommen's regent) to rule without the Faith's blessing. So she had the prior High Septon killed after he gave Tommen the Faith's blessing. She had hoped for someone more malleable, like the dude who frequented the brothels, to be named as the new High Septon. Instead, she gets the current High Septon. He tells her fairly explicitly that he is inclined to believe the bastardy charges against Tommen and he would like to see someone else on the Iron Throne. He states he would prefer Stannis as King, except for the whole R'hollor thing. Now, enter Aegon. Aegon appears to be Rhaegar's son (it really doesn't matter if he is or not) and he follows the Faith. Aegon is someone who the Faith can get behind. The Faith will declare Aegon as Westeros' rightful king returned.

The fly in this ointment is Margery. Remember when she first arrived in King's Landing with food for the small folk in the middle of a severe food shortage? The small folk love her. As long as Margery remains Tommen's queen, the Faith would have to be very cautious about any actions they take against Tommen. However, if Margery is found guilty at her trial and executed, then the Faith is free to do as they please. When Margery is executed, Mace Tyrell will kill Tommen in a fit of rage, not only because Margery is dead, but also because Margery was the Tyrells' only claim to the throne. The Tyrells and Tarly will abandon Cersei and declare for Aegon. The Faith will declare that Aegon is the "Prince who was Promised" and offer King's Landing to him. Aegon will enter King's Landing to cheering crowds. Of course, this will probably be Aegon's highest point. I think all of this will happen in TWOW.On a personal note, might I add how fun it is to come up with these speculations while waiting for the release of TWOW. :)

Edited to make it more readable (I hope).

[eivers]

Wasn't the faith re-arming part because the faith came calling on money owed, And Cersei fought it was oh so clever to allow them to arm in order to forgive a large portion of the debt?

[armidil0]

Aegon will enter King's Landing to cheering crowds. Of course, this will probably be Aegon's highest point. I think all of this will happen in TWOW.On a personal note, might I add how fun it is to come up with these speculations while waiting for the release of TWOW. :)

Nah, I think Aegon will be sieging KL, when Jaime chokes the life out of Cersei. But wait! It's too late! With Cersei dead the gates open of Aegon and his men to march into KL. While most of his army has entered the pyromancers will set KL ablaze. Thus setting the stage for Dany.

[Lady of Dragonstone]

I don't think Varys needs to be manipulating the Faith for things to go very wrong for Margery. The Faith does not like having Tommen on the throne. If you will recall, the reason Cersei allowed the Faith to rearm themselves is because the last Septon didn't want to give Tommen the Faith's blessing. Cersei felt that it would be practically impossible for Tommen (or her as Tommen's regent) to rule without the Faith's blessing. So she had the prior High Septon killed after he gave Tommen the Faith's blessing. She had hoped for someone more malleable, like the dude who frequented the brothels, to be named as the new High Septon. Instead, she gets the current High Septon. He tells her fairly explicitly that he is inclined to believe the bastardy charges against Tommen and he would like to see someone else on the Iron Throne. He states he would prefer Stannis as King, except for the whole R'hollor thing. Now, enter Aegon. Aegon appears to be Rhaegar's son (it really doesn't matter if he is or not) and he follows the Faith. Aegon is someone who the Faith can get behind. The Faith will declare Aegon as Westeros' rightful king returned.

The fly in this ointment is Margery. Remember when she first arrived in King's Landing with food for the small folk in the middle of a severe food shortage? The small folk love her. As long as Margery remains Tommen's queen, the Faith would have to be very cautious about any actions they take against Tommen. However, if Margery is found guilty at her trial and executed, then the Faith is free to do as they please. When Margery is executed, Mace Tyrell will kill Tommen in a fit of rage, not only because Margery is dead, but also because Margery was the Tyrells' only claim to the throne. The Tyrells and Tarly will abandon Cersei and declare for Aegon. The Faith will declare that Aegon is the "Prince who was Promised" and offer King's Landing to him. Aegon will enter King's Landing to cheering crowds. Of course, this will probably be Aegon's highest point. I think all of this will happen in TWOW.On a personal note, might I add how fun it is to come up with these speculations while waiting for the release of TWOW. :)

Edited to make it more readable (I hope).

I agree about Mace and Margaery. The Tyrells are basically holding the Red Keep, Small Council, etc for themselves now. I hadn't thought about Mace being the one to kill Tommen. I sincerely hope Marg isn't convicted, only because I do like her character, and I think she would have been a good (shrewd, but kind to the smallfolks) queen. Agreed the Tyrells will declare for Aegon, whether it's for gold, or because their hands are tied behind their backs -- this remains to be seen. But I don't think Aegon will come to KL and find cheering crowds there. The smallfolk are fed up and disillusioned with the politics, and even if some say Aegon is who he says he is, some will disagree and there will still be much drama, war, and bloodshed. There are still many things to be dealt with in KL before Aegon arrives there. How those cards play out will probably determine the fate of Aegon. Personally, I don't think he is genuinely Rhaegar's son, and I don't think he will survive the game. I don't have any evidence or anything, just a gut feeling. :)

And yes, Eivers, that is what happened iirc.

[The Sunset King]

When talking to Kevan, Varys claims that once Aegon's banner is raised at Storm's End, the lords of the realm will begin to gather around him. This reveals Varys's confidence that much of the realm will be quite keen on joining with the new claimant claiming to be Rhaegar's son and heir ,and also alleged to be capable of healing the continent.

I don't think Varys needs to be manipulating the Faith for things to go very wrong for Margery. The Faith does not like having Tommen on the throne. If you will recall, the reason Cersei allowed the Faith to rearm themselves is because the last Septon didn't want to give Tommen the Faith's blessing. Cersei felt that it would be practically impossible for Tommen (or her as Tommen's regent) to rule without the Faith's blessing. So she had the prior High Septon killed after he gave Tommen the Faith's blessing. She had hoped for someone more malleable, like the dude who frequented the brothels, to be named as the new High Septon. Instead, she gets the current High Septon. He tells her fairly explicitly that he is inclined to believe the bastardy charges against Tommen and he would like to see someone else on the Iron Throne. He states he would prefer Stannis as King, except for the whole R'hollor thing. Now, enter Aegon. Aegon appears to be Rhaegar's son (it really doesn't matter if he is or not) and he follows the Faith. Aegon is someone who the Faith can get behind. The Faith will declare Aegon as Westeros' rightful king returned.

The fly in this ointment is Margery. Remember when she first arrived in King's Landing with food for the small folk in the middle of a severe food shortage? The small folk love her. As long as Margery remains Tommen's queen, the Faith would have to be very cautious about any actions they take against Tommen. However, if Margery is found guilty at her trial and executed, then the Faith is free to do as they please. When Margery is executed, Mace Tyrell will kill Tommen in a fit of rage, not only because Margery is dead, but also because Margery was the Tyrells' only claim to the throne. The Tyrells and Tarly will abandon Cersei and declare for Aegon. The Faith will declare that Aegon is the "Prince who was Promised" and offer King's Landing to him. Aegon will enter King's Landing to cheering crowds. Of course, this will probably be Aegon's highest point. I think all of this will happen in TWOW.On a personal note, might I add how fun it is to come up with these speculations while waiting for the release of TWOW. :)

Edited to make it more readable (I hope).

Very good points, I agree with the majority of what is quoted there, especially as it pertains to Aegon's relations to the Faith.

[Daemul]

I don't think Varys needs to be manipulating the Faith for things to go very wrong for Margery. The Faith does not like having Tommen on the throne. If you will recall, the reason Cersei allowed the Faith to rearm themselves is because the last Septon didn't want to give Tommen the Faith's blessing. Cersei felt that it would be practically impossible for Tommen (or her as Tommen's regent) to rule without the Faith's blessing. So she had the prior High Septon killed after he gave Tommen the Faith's blessing. She had hoped for someone more malleable, like the dude who frequented the brothels, to be named as the new High Septon. Instead, she gets the current High Septon. He tells her fairly explicitly that he is inclined to believe the bastardy charges against Tommen and he would like to see someone else on the Iron Throne. He states he would prefer Stannis as King, except for the whole R'hollor thing. Now, enter Aegon. Aegon appears to be Rhaegar's son (it really doesn't matter if he is or not) and he follows the Faith. Aegon is someone who the Faith can get behind. The Faith will declare Aegon as Westeros' rightful king returned.

The fly in this ointment is Margery. Remember when she first arrived in King's Landing with food for the small folk in the middle of a severe food shortage? The small folk love her. As long as Margery remains Tommen's queen, the Faith would have to be very cautious about any actions they take against Tommen. However, if Margery is found guilty at her trial and executed, then the Faith is free to do as they please. When Margery is executed, Mace Tyrell will kill Tommen in a fit of rage, not only because Margery is dead, but also because Margery was the Tyrells' only claim to the throne. The Tyrells and Tarly will abandon Cersei and declare for Aegon. The Faith will declare that Aegon is the "Prince who was Promised" and offer King's Landing to him. Aegon will enter King's Landing to cheering crowds. Of course, this will probably be Aegon's highest point. I think all of this will happen in TWOW.On a personal note, might I add how fun it is to come up with these speculations while waiting for the release of TWOW. :)

Edited to make it more readable (I hope).

Then the Pyromancers, under the final orders of the mad Queen Cersei, light the Dragonfire under Kings Landing, and the city will burn to the ground, wiping out Aegon and his army. Cersei :bowdown:

[Big Daddy Dave]

I can see Aegon making his play for the throne in the end of TWOW, and maybe into ADOS. But I think Cersei will squeak through this one by the skin of her teeth. Nothing to base this idea on other than that she above all other characters is the central villain, and it's up to her to keep the Lanister threat alive. If she dies in TWOW then effectively the Lanisters are done as antagonists in the books. And I think she will stay alive and on the throne long enough to see Tommen and Mycella die. And Mycella will probably be brought back to KL before that happens as well.

As for Aegon, I like bent branch's theories about how his claim will be supported by the faith in KL. It may very well come down to that. Real or not, Aegon probably wasn't created by Martin to get snuffed out on the sidelines. I think he'll play the game of thrones, and lose of course, but not before making a spectacular effort akin to Stannis' attempt on the Blackwater. And the faith getting behind him would certainly raise those stakes.

[Jamie Lannistah]

Nah, I think Aegon will be sieging KL, when Jaime chokes the life out of Cersei. But wait! It's too late! With Cersei dead the gates open of Aegon and his men to march into KL. While most of his army has entered the pyromancers will set KL ablaze. Thus setting the stage for Dany.

Honestly, this gives me chills already. After battle of the Blackwater 2.0 or something, finally Aegon wins, and in his victory parade, the pyromancers burn KL to the ground. Would be a great conclusion, and thoroughly epic ending to the "Game of Thrones" portion of the novels. Only if Jaime survives however.....

[mrlukeduke]

I think that the Tyrell's will be keen on a Margery–Aegon marriage pact to maintain their dominance in King's Landing. They can use Cersei and/or Tommen to take control of Lannisport. Aegon indeed has the advantage of being 'of the Faith' so he'll have the backing of armed religious loonies, too.

Tommen could just be kept as collateral to ensure Cersei plays her role in seizing Casterley Rock for the Iron Throne. He's no direct threat if Aegon's real anyway.

I think another issue is that the lords of The Reach may be wary of a Dornish allegiance to Aegon the Dragon. So if they can make a play for his Kingship faster than the Martells can, that protects them from any rival marriage pact between Aegon and Arianne, as planned by Doran.

I think Jaime will be gone for a long time on his own errands. I'm curious as to how the lords of The Vale will react to the young Dragon. Will they declare for him, or Stannis? Or remain silent? They have significant, fresh forces and supplies.

If Aegon succeeds in his southern campaign, and wins over Tyrells and Redwynes and perhaps names Randyll Tarly his battle commander, then he'll become a serious force to be reckoned with.

Of course, it could be that the Faith shame (or even execute?) Margery, which will enrage the Tyrells and cause massive internal strife. But I believe the Faith are simply making a play for power – greater influence within southron politics in general – and will look for someone squeaky clean to give their blessing to. They might not only find Margery innocent, but give her the blessing. This would play nicely into Tyrell hands with Aegon.

[Elohssa]

I'm curious as to how the lords of The Vale will react to the young Dragon. Will they declare for him, or Stannis? Or remain silent? They have significant, fresh forces and supplies.

If the Vale goes with the young Dragon's farce it will only be so Little Finger can wed Sansa to Aegon in his crazy bid to take over the world. This would be a sweet deal for the newest king in westeros because it would unite the north and south, although the north is a bit of a fixer upper right now. This would also make for interesting reading because Doran will be trying to do the same thing with his real daughter Arianne. It might be nice to see how proper ladies play the game of thrones.

[Ozzy.Ze]

I bet he'd come with the whole force of the golden company and smash the tyrells claiming he is loyal to stannis, then enter the castle and take it from within

[Lord Varys]

Both Varys and Tyene Sand could play a crucial role to doom Margaerys during her trial - if there is a trial conducted by the Faith! I'm not sure why Mace Tyrell - Lord Regent and Hand of the King, and firmly in control of the Small Council now that Ser Kevan and Pycelle are dead - would still allow the High Septon to decide the fate of his precious daughter. He wanted Kevan to declare Margaery's innocence through King Tommen. Now he has the opportunity to do so.

If that's the case, the High Sparrow will be pissed and even more motivated to join Aegon's camp than he is right now. And it's quite obvious that the Sparrow Movement does despise incest-born, illegitimate Tommen-called-Baratheon. The High Septon reluctantly stayed in Tommen's camp - while expanding his own power base on the expense of the Iron Throne - because there was no other pretender around who followed the Faith of the Andals. Stannis closed the door when he converted to the Red God, and a Stark or a Ironborn King was never an option. But both Renly and a faithful Stannis would have been favored by the Sparrow Movement over the Lannister brats. The core of the High Septon's followers comes from the devastated Riverlands, and the Lannisters are mostly responsible for the atrocities that happened there.

If the Faith openly declares for Aegon VI Targaryen the Realm will follow suit. That's the nudge the secret Targaryen loyalists need, and it will also finally untie the hands of the silent minority among all those lords from the West and the Reach who never were happy with the fact that Lord Tywin tried to enforce his incest-born grandson as their king.

[The Sunset King]

Both Varys and Tyene Sand could play a crucial role to doom Margaerys during her trial - if there is a trial conducted by the Faith! I'm not sure why Mace Tyrell - Lord Regent and Hand of the King, and firmly in control of the Small Council now that Ser Kevan and Pycelle are dead - would still allow the High Septon to decide the fate of his precious daughter. He wanted Kevan to declare Margaery's innocence through King Tommen. Now he has the opportunity to do so.

Mace definitely wanted Tommen to issue a proclamation declaring Margaery innocent. However, it is possible that he might decide to accept the trial for the following reasons, even if it is not advisable to allow its occurrence:

It could be that, since Mace realizes that the evidence is feeble and fabricated, he believes that acquittal is very probable. He would not be aware of the danger posed by Varys and the Sand Snakes, maybe aware of the Qyburn hazard though. One of the characters also claimed that halting the trial would risk allowing lingerging accustations, doubts, whispers, and other slanders against Margaery to continue. Mace may believe that he can corrupt the judges/intimidate them with the large armies he has stationed at KL.

Either way, the sparrows will almost certainly turn against both the Tyrells and the Lannisters.

[mrlukeduke]

I agree, the Faith is surely waiting for Aegon to swoop in. Varys has been moving pieces around in King's Landing for years. Aegon's the godly King (fakeypants or no) they're looking for. They want a holy monarch because the Faith craves power as well. The Sparrows are growing bold and few would dare oppose the holy Faith of the Seven anyway. They despise Stannis' red god and Daenerys is still a distant fairytale a this point.

Tommen, Myrcella and/or Cersei will be required to hold Casterley Rock so that the not insiginifcant Lannister forces still in the Crownlands remain subservient. Lancel is now just a meek peon of the Faith so he can't rule the Rock even if he tried.

[Lord Varys]

I very much doubt that Mace and Margaery are going to allow the Faith to execute her, even if she is found guilty. The pressure of the Tyrell armies is no empty threat. There will be soldiers and guardsmen present when/if Margaery does return to the Great Sept for trial. And they will have their orders. If the Faith finds Queen Margaery guilty there will be blood. And this could very well mean the end of the new High Septon since the Tyrells troops under Tarly's command will most certainly make short work out of the sparrows and the few Warrior's Son.

If Tyene ends up being one of Margaery's judges - the High Septon has already said that there would be three women among them, and Tyene would be the ideal representation of the Maiden - she'll do anything in her power to convince her fellow judges to find Margaery guilty. Even if that's not what the High Septon wants.

It would be a public relations disaster and most likely the end of King Tommen's rule, but it might be exactly what Varys wants to happen. After all, King Aegon does not need a strong Faith and a High Septon who considers himself the ultimate power in the Seven Kingdoms...

[mrlukeduke]

I very much doubt that Mace and Margaery are going to allow the Faith to execute her, even if she is found guilty. The pressure of the Tyrell armies is no empty threat. There will be soldiers and guardsmen present when/if Margaery does return to the Great Sept for trial. And they will have their orders. If the Faith finds Queen Margaery guilty there will be blood. And this could very well mean the end of the new High Septon since the Tyrells troops under Tarly's command will most certainly make short work out of the sparrows and the few Warrior's Son.

I agree except that the idea the Tyrells have is precisely to find Margaery innocent, thus supplanting Cersei as Tommen's true Queen (over Cersei as a bullying Regent).

I think Varys only set up the trials for causing friction between Tyrell/Lannister, I don't think he has full or much control over what the Faith does now. Curiously, I just now noted the connection between Varys' "little birds" and the army of "Sparrows" loyal to the Faith! Enjoyable coincidence that.

If Tyene ends up being one of Margaery's judges - the High Septon has already said that there would be three women among them, and Tyene would be the ideal representation of the Maiden - she'll do anything in her power to convince her fellow judges to find Margaery guilty. Even if that's not what the High Septon wants.

It would be a public relations disaster and most likely the end of King Tommen's rule, but it might be exactly what Varys wants to happen. After all, King Aegon does not need a strong Faith and a High Septon who considers himself the ultimate power in the Seven Kingdoms...

Yep I concur. Although I think she'll be freed under some harsh "bargaining conditions" concocted by Tyene/Martells; possibly that Margaery renounce her Queenship entirely.

I think Margaery would be an interesting match for Aegon; with such a match he can subdue the force of Highgarden (no small pickings there). Or, as a previous poster speculated, it could be Sansa that Aegon becomes interested in for personal and political reasons (the North). Or neither. We shall see.

I think Cersei and Margaery are too valuable as hostages and pawns for power games. So I don't think either are in danger of disappearing. Although Cersei came close were it not for Robert Strong.