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About Aegon and Connington's next move (TWOW spoilers)


BaseBornBastard

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So those who have encountered any of TWOW preview chapters (namely Arianne 2) will know that by the beginning of TWOW, Aegon will have taken Storm's End. My question is this.....how the hell does he pull it off? Storm's End is arguably the most impregnable castle in Westeros.It is currently held by Stannis' men and is under siege by the Tyrells. How the hell does a small army of sellswords accomplish such a feat?

When asked by one of his men in ADWD how Connington plans to take Storm's End, he replies "with guile" or something to that effect....so we know that Connington plans to use some form of deception to win the castle. Will he do what Ramsay did in Winterfell and approach with friendly banners, only to slaughter the Tyrells outside the walls? What do you guys think he'll do?

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If it weren't for these books having a pattern where The Same Trick Doesn't Work Twice, I could totally see Connington succeeding using Ramsay's Plan. The Golden Company being mercenaries in many ways makes it even more plausible for both besiegers and defenders to believe the GC has come to their aid. Plus nobody that far south is going to know the real story of the sack of Winterfell so the Storm's End Garrison isn't going to be "on guard" for that trick. Connington need only independently invent it, and he seems cagey enough a veteran tactician to do just that.

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I wouldn't be surprised if alot of the Tyrell bannerman (all of whom fought for Aerys during the War of the Usurper) decided to jump back on the Targaryen bandwagon.

Same. I think they got some guys from Team Tyrell and negotiated with them and just kinda went "Yarp, Storm's End, bitches." But im sure there was fighting involved.

I think Aegon's next move will be dealing with the Ironborn near Highgarden.

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Elephants. Catapulted elephants. But seriously, Connington has spent the last 15 years on a boat stewing in a bowl filled of revenge. He's also had some pretty smart people (Varys, Illyrio, Haldon) consulting him. He could have come up with a feasible plan to take Storm's End in that time. The Golden Company, I'd like to think, is better at this than Mace Tyrell.

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Who's overseeing the siege of Storm's End now that Mace is in KL? Because depending on who that is, the Reach forces may flip then and there, thereby allowing Aegon to take the keep without bloodshed between the exterior forces.

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Attack the Tyrell forces, lift the siege, get into the keep under an illusion of friendship/alliance, take the place.

That makes the most sense to me. How many men did the Tyrell's send down there though?

If the GC caught them off guard I guess it wouldn't matter how many men they had. They'd break like the wildling's did when Stannis' knights surprise attacked them.

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Well, IIRC, there were a lot down there, but Mace took the majority up north to King's Landing for his daughter's trial. I think they'll be easy pickings.

Right, I forgot about the trial. So most of the Tyrell forces just abandon the siege right when Aegon is about to attack them with his smallish GC army (most of them are still scattered around the Stormlands, no?). Talk about luck....

As far as Aegon's next move, I think a marriage to Arianne is in the works (probably against Connington's wishes). Then Varys is probably going to kill Tommen, that will sever the Lannister/Tyrell alliance for good and all. And like the book says, 'blood will spill into the streets as men of the lion and men of the rose go at each other.' Aegon might be able to just walk into KL unmolested. OK maybe not, but close to it I would imagine. GRRM is clearly setting him up to win quickly.

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Attack the Tyrell forces, lift the siege, get into the keep under an illusion of friendship/alliance, take the place.

Another thing that could work to Connington's advantage is that Stannis is seeking a sellsword company across the Narrow Sea, in fact his first choice is to hire the Golden Company. So if Stannis' men at Storm's End are aware of this and suddenly see the GC marching towards the castle and killing the Tyrells outside the walls, I'm sure they'll just open the gates and let them right in.....

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I am pretty certain that Mace Tyrell brings his entire army back to King's Landing when Margarey is arrested, leaving only Stannis's men in the castle.

Two pieces of evidence from A Dance with Dragons:

Cersei I - "We have reports of sellswords landing all over the south," Ser Kevan was saying (to Cersei). "Tarth, the Stepstones, Cape Wrath...where Stannis found the coin to hire a free company I would dearly love to know. I do not have the strength to deal with them, not here. Mace Tyrell does, but he refuses to bestir himself until this matter with his daughter has been settled."

Epilogue - Ser Kevan - "Tarth, the Stepstones, even Estermont. And now we have reports that Connington is moving on Storm's End."

"If it is Jon Connington," said Randyll Tarly.

"Storm's End." Lord Mace Tyrell grunted the words. "He cannot take Storm's End. Not if he were Aegon the Conqueror. And if he does, what of it? Stannis holds it now. Let the castle pass from one pretender to another, why should that trouble us? I shall recapture it after my daughter's innocence is proved."

With that evidence, we know no Tyrell/Tarly force is at Storm's End so it is just Stannis's forces inside vs. Aegon/Connington. So the idea that they take the castle with trickery like they are a sellsword company purchased by Stannis seems likely. Hopefully, Aegon will allow them to bend the knee and not slaughter everyone like Ramsay did in Winterfell. I don't think he is like that and think it will be a victory with minimal bloodshed.

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OMG! Evidence! :eek: That's crazy. This kind of thing is gonna put pressure on the rest of us to up our game. I don't know if I like that. In the end, it might force people like me to start checking the things we say for accuracy instead of just spouting whatever. That's a slippery slope, missy! This site was supposed to be homework-free! Now we've got people on the Sansa thread doing proffesorial level dissertations on Sansa's place in comparative world literature. What's next? :cool4:

Anywhay,

The Stannis loyalists holding the castle probably have low morale at this point and are just waiting for the end to come. So when Connington shows up at their doorstep and tells them his troops have come to join Stannis, they might be so overjoyed and will want to believe him so much that they'll just open the portcullis. (Or some slightly more involved version of the same, to keep readers' interest better).

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Storm's End has quite few men in front the walls.. We know there are 300 men in SE, so 1500 Tyrell men are more than enough.. A few hundred Targaryen horsemen can charge on the camp and Baratheon men can charge out.. And Targaryens would kill them too.. Or, they might sneak ship inside like Davos did twice.. But instead of onions, there would be armed men...

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Maybe the rumors of Stannis' death arrived to Storm's End way faster than anyone could've expected and the forces there just surrounded the castle, maybe Ramsey (if he was indeed Ramsey who send the pink letter) didn't just send a raven to Jon but to KL as well, but I don't know about the chronological implications, so I'm not sure.

Anyway, with Ironborn in the Reach, Stannis and the Boltons in the North, Freys and the BWB in the Riverlands,and an unscathed army in the Vale, Aegon's safest move could be to take the westerlands.

My theory is that JonCon will die in one of the upcoming battles or because of the greyscale so Aegon will become a pawn of the Martells.

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I am pretty certain that Mace Tyrell brings his entire army back to King's Landing when Margarey is arrested, leaving only Stannis's men in the castle.

Two pieces of evidence from A Dance with Dragons:

Cersei I - "We have reports of sellswords landing all over the south," Ser Kevan was saying (to Cersei). "Tarth, the Stepstones, Cape Wrath...where Stannis found the coin to hire a free company I would dearly love to know. I do not have the strength to deal with them, not here. Mace Tyrell does, but he refuses to bestir himself until this matter with his daughter has been settled."

Epilogue - Ser Kevan - "Tarth, the Stepstones, even Estermont. And now we have reports that Connington is moving on Storm's End."

"If it is Jon Connington," said Randyll Tarly.

"Storm's End." Lord Mace Tyrell grunted the words. "He cannot take Storm's End. Not if he were Aegon the Conqueror. And if he does, what of it? Stannis holds it now. Let the castle pass from one pretender to another, why should that trouble us? I shall recapture it after my daughter's innocence is proved."

With that evidence, we know no Tyrell/Tarly force is at Storm's End so it is just Stannis's forces inside vs. Aegon/Connington. So the idea that they take the castle with trickery like they are a sellsword company purchased by Stannis seems likely. Hopefully, Aegon will allow them to bend the knee and not slaughter everyone like Ramsay did in Winterfell. I don't think he is like that and think it will be a victory with minimal bloodshed.

*claps*

Arr. This is a good conclusion to make.

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Aegon will allow them to bend the knee and not slaughter everyone like Ramsay did in Winterfell. I don't think he is like that and think it will be a victory with minimal bloodshed.

The Arianne preview chapter says the taking of it was "bloody" so no clean victory for Aegon it seems. But a victory nonetheless

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