Was Tywin Lannister even a good commander?

[Nyrhex]

Ah, but we know the westerlings aren't as loyal to their lieges as the northmen ;) and most of them weren't even repaying their loans to Casterly Rock during the reign of Tytos. Tywin won't have had the full muster of the westerlands for these operations.

So? The Westerlings join Robb, and Tywin still has ~20,000 men with him. 15,000 went with Jaime, and ~10,000 that were being trained were not all from two or three houses. Two castles rebelling, and a few others not pitching in does not mean he only had a token force with him. The whole point of that story was to show his charachter, and how he treats with people who defy him. There was no question if he can destroy them, only will he? His father did not lift a finger, so why should the son be different? No reason to pay taxes or send troops if he asks...

[Chaircat Meow]

So? The Westerlings join Robb, and Tywin still has ~20,000 men with him. 15,000 went with Jaime, and ~10,000 that were being trained were not all from two or three houses. Two castles rebelling, and a few others not pitching in does not mean he only had a token force with him. The whole point of that story was to show his charachter, and how he treats with people who defy him. There was no question if he can destroy them, only will he? His father did not lift a finger, so why should the son be different? No reason to pay taxes or send troops if he asks...

westerling is the name for inhabitant of the western lands, it doesn't refer to the house unless it is capitalized ... or so I thought.

[Nyrhex]

westerling is the name for inhabitant of the western lands, it doesn't refer to the house unless it is capitalized ... or so I thought.

Westerlands = Westermen/Westerlander. Westerlings is the family whose name is Westerling. Unless I am very much mistaken.

[Chaircat Meow]

So? The Westerlings join Robb, and Tywin still has ~20,000 men with him. 15,000 went with Jaime, and ~10,000 that were being trained were not all from two or three houses. Two castles rebelling, and a few others not pitching in does not mean he only had a token force with him. The whole point of that story was to show his charachter, and how he treats with people who defy him. There was no question if he can destroy them, only will he? His father did not lift a finger, so why should the son be different? No reason to pay taxes or send troops if he asks...

He was fighting two very powerful bannermen when house lannister's prestige and influence was in free fall. It's reasonable to assume lots of bannermen sat on the sides or sent very few troops. Tywin is also said explicilty to have fought multiple battles in his career, so some of them will likely have been against the Reynes and Tarbecks, led by the Red Lion. And the rebellion doesn't need to be easy to put down to show Tywin's character. The Starks haven't wiped out the Boltons, which may say something about them, yet we know besieging the Dreadfort is a monumentally difficult task.

[Chaircat Meow]

Westerlands = Westermen/Westerlander. Westerlings is the family whose name is Westerling. Unless I am very much mistaken.

Well you know what I mean anyway.

[Chaircat Meow]

On the tactical level, he isn't anywhere close to his reputation.

Battle of the Green Fork - Falls for the enemy's fient, after he wins he fails to persue and destroy the enemy army. He finished off a third of Roose's forces without persuit. Had he gone north he could have destroyed most of Robb's army, and cut off Robb's escape/reinforcements route. Instead he traps himself between two armies.

Tywin's military intelligence is generally good. Not much he could do about not forseeing the split. And hurrying back to the Ruby Ford was the prudent thing to do for a number of reasons; it avoided the possibility of the ford being held against him, and it gave him some opportunity to rescue the situation in the riverlands, the precise details of which he did not know. Sitting on Robb's line of supply/communications is a terrible idea, it leaves him near a hostile castle with a substantial garrison, the Twins, with the possibility of being cut off from the south and miles out of position to achieve his other objectives in the war (defeat of the Baratheon brothers). In hindsight a thorough pursuit seems to have been a good idea, but Tywin didn't know what was happening in his rear at the time.

Battle of the Fords - Fails to take the safer option west by going around Riverrun, instead wasting time and men on a forced crossing. Fails.

This isn't accurate, the battle was called off when Tywin received the Tyrell messengers. He could have gone south via Deep Den or Crakehall but that was a much longer route.

Battle of the Blackwater - leads the right battle. Since his side is moving from west to east, that means he would have been facing Sir Rolland Storm, AKA the Badass of Nightsong. Sir Rolland holds Tywin long enough for ~2,000 men and thier horses to reach the reserve fleet and be evacuated. Sir Rolland is with them. This implies that Tywin fails in his objective.

Some people usually escape from all battles. This seems a trivial complaint.

And you do think Stannis is a good general right ... the guy who would be about to get pwned by Roose Bolton saving for some unlikely circumstances none of which he could have forseen.

[Pod The Impaler]

At the start of the series we're encouraged to believe that Tywin Lannister is some mighty general soldier Lord, but for me this image is completely broken by the fact he gets his Crimson arse well and truly handed to him by Robb Stark in the battlefield. Does this indicate that Robb is a good commander, Tywin is a bad one, or both?

As a politician he fares better, but we are encouraged to believe in him as a soldier, even when we can see this is clearly not the case.

Let's look at his known achievements; Destroyed a vassal house, defeated a massively outnumbered army at King's Landing and put civilians to the Sword, the battle of the green fork which was a strategic loss, and the battle of the blackwater, which I doubt he could have won so crushingly on his own.

I am not one who thinks Tywin was a great commander.

Competent, yes, and skilled at the political / preparatory side of things. He's not lazy or sloppy or afraid to fight. He's balanced - not reckless like Jaime, and yet not the sort of man to just park himself outside a castle and expect it to surrender on its own (like Mace Tyrell).

But looking at his battelfield accomplishments, they are:

1 - Crushing two lesser houses of the Westerlands - which any greater lord should be able to do when their bannermen get out of line.

2 - As Hand, he probably had a part in destroying the Darklyns and Hollards in Duskendale - but it was Barristan who did the rescuing of the King, and Aerys who gave the order to wipe them out after.

3 - He sacked King's Landing - because his agent (Pycelle) convinced the King to open the gates, so there was no siege (just a slaughter).

4 - His opening assault upon the Riverlands in the War Of 5 Kings was successful, mainly owing to strategic surprise. - It simply was not forseen by his foes that he'd order his men to start raiding the Riverlands then then launch a full-scale invasion. (To his foes' credit, though, they did not yet realize he was their foe.)

5 - He does make the right decision in breaking the attack upon King's Landing - but must share credit there with the Tyrells for the unexpected mass of fresh troops, and with his son Tyrion for the city having been defended well at all.

[Nyrhex]

Tywin's military intelligence is generally good. Not much he could do about not forseeing the split. And hurrying back to the Ruby Ford was the prudent thing to do for a number of reasons; it avoided the possibility of the ford being held against him, and it gave him some opportunity to rescue the situation in the riverlands, the precise details of which he did not know. Sitting on Robb's line of supply/communications is a terrible idea, it leaves him near a hostile castle with a substantial garrison, the Twins, with the possibility of being cut off from the south and miles out of position to achieve his other objectives in the war (defeat of the Baratheon brothers).

Tywin has ~20,000 men. If he chases Roose's force and destroys it, that leaves him the Twins, with ~400 men. Pretty simple to take, and then take Robb's route and put him between two armies. Is he farther north then he should be to defent KL? Yes, but that was his plan to begin with, that is why he was marching north. He planned on Stannis having too few men, and Renly to take his time so he could finish off the Riverlands, destroy the Northern host, and get back south in time. The only difference now is that Robb acted in a different manner the Tywin expected. It's still Tywin's plan, only now Jamie's host is destroyed, but so is Robb's, who is trapped in the Riverlands with a few thousend horse. All Tywin has to do is chase Robb south west of the Twins, destroy him, leave a force at the Twins to cut off any more Northern forces, place a force from Stafford's host to besiege Riverrun, a force at HH to cut off anyone fron East of the Twins, and march south just in time for Renly, with his massive host, and his massive supply train of food and siege engines, to arrive near KL. Tywin shold still field a considerable army, close to his original 20,000, and not have to worry about Robb or the Riverlands. Together with the forces in KL he actually has a shot. Instead he marches south, too late to do something, and he knows it, and traps himself between Roose's host to the east, Robb's to the west, and Renly's to the south. His action tells us one thing, and that is that he is completly lost. He falls back, imstead of reacting in time, then he just sits there and thinks what to do next. This isn't hindsight stuff, it's a decision he made with information he had at the time, and should not have made.

This isn't accurate, the battle was called off when Tywin received the Tyrell messengers. He could have gone south via Deep Den or Crakehall but that was a much longer route.

The battle was indeed called off, but Tywin still failed in his objective. He tried to look for a weak spot, didn't find any, so tried to make one and failed. You raised a theory that he was actually sending Gregor to lure Edmure into investing his reserves, but I disagree, as it's unlikely that Edmure would send all 3,000 horse against Gregor's few hundreds, and also because I think that communication would have been too much of a problem to know if it worked, and that he isn't fording too close to Edmure's reserves.

Some people usually escape from all battles. This seems a trivial complaint.

How is it trivial? His objective is to engage the rear and prevent Stannis from retreating, or at least to disrupt it. He fails in this, as is stated in the books. Rolland holds him long enough for 2,000 men and thier horses to board ships. That's a considerable amount of time, and that is exactly Tywin's objective.

Do I put him with the lowest ranked commanders? No, but he is nowhere near the top, as his reputation implies.

[Chaircat Meow]

Tywin has ~20,000 men. If he chases Roose's force and destroys it, that leaves him the Twins, with ~400 men. Pretty simple to take, and then take Robb's route and put him between two armies. Is he farther north then he should be to defent KL? Yes, but that was his plan to begin with, that is why he was marching north. He planned on Stannis having too few men, and Renly to take his time so he could finish off the Riverlands, destroy the Northern host, and get back south in time. The only difference now is that Robb acted in a different manner the Tywin expected. It's still Tywin's plan, only now Jamie's host is destroyed, but so is Robb's, who is trapped in the Riverlands with a few thousend horse. All Tywin has to do is chase Robb south west of the Twins, destroy him, leave a force at the Twins to cut off any more Northern forces, place a force from Stafford's host to besiege Riverrun, a force at HH to cut off anyone fron East of the Twins, and march south just in time for Renly, with his massive host, and his massive supply train of food and siege engines, to arrive near KL. Tywin shold still field a considerable army, close to his original 20,000, and not have to worry about Robb or the Riverlands. Together with the forces in KL he actually has a shot. Instead he marches south, too late to do something, and he knows it, and traps himself between Roose's host to the east, Robb's to the west, and Renly's to the south. His action tells us one thing, and that is that he is completly lost. He falls back, imstead of reacting in time, then he just sits there and thinks what to do next. This isn't hindsight stuff, it's a decision he made with information he had at the time, and should not have made.

If Robb had relieved Riverrun, which Tywin didn't know, he'd have more than a few thousand horse as he'd have all the riverlords. Tywin would have to risk a battle on ground of Robb's choosing, near Riverrun, where he has castles to fall back on. Tywin clearly can't take the Twins, or lay siege, this would take too long, and leave him vulnerable to a force seizing the Ruby Ford. He can't split the army to block Stark communications really, as that would take too many men given the extra forces the Starks could raise. Heading back south quickly allowed him to reach a more secure position, avoid getting cut off, and allowed for the fact Jaime's defeat might not be so total, or complete, and that there might be some way of helping his army.

The battle was indeed called off, but Tywin still failed in his objective. He tried to look for a weak spot, didn't find any, so tried to make one and failed. You raised a theory that he was actually sending Gregor to lure Edmure into investing his reserves, but I disagree, as it's unlikely that Edmure would send all 3,000 horse against Gregor's few hundreds, and also because I think that communication would have been too much of a problem to know if it worked, and that he isn't fording too close to Edmure's reserves.

The assaults he launched failed to make a breach. It's unknown whether he planned further attacks, as he left. I don't really see how you can fail in your objective if you leave sometime during the proceedings.

How is it trivial? His objective is to engage the rear and prevent Stannis from retreating, or at least to disrupt it. He fails in this, as is stated in the books. Rolland holds him long enough for 2,000 men and thier horses to board ships. That's a considerable amount of time, and that is exactly Tywin's objective.

Do I put him with the lowest ranked commanders? No, but he is nowhere near the top, as his reputation implies.

Well, they destroyed most of Stannis' army so, success achieved I'd say.

Anyway, Tywin wasn't attacking the rear of the army was he, he was on the left as you look from the west towards KL.

edit: Tywin's position in Harrenhal was assumed as a means of being in reach of the capital to relieve it when attacked, but also as a base to tempt Robb into saving the riverlands by marching to give battle under Harrenhal's walls (or until the new army was ready from the west). He wasn't sitting there lost; it was a perfectly sound plan. The only thing that is a bit funny is his colossal overestimation of Stannis, who he thought would launch an attack on KL from Dragonstone.

In addition to all of this, Tywin still thought he had Ned, and didn't know LF would outwit Cersei into having him killed.

[Frey Pie]

Can anyone mention an example of a single bad strategic decision he made?

All his setbacks were due to causes that he couldn't have been reasonably expected to plan for beforehand, in my opinion.

Relying on Robb Starks youth and Walder Freys fickleness were both risks. His plan in the first place can be looked at in two ways-he attacks one of his enemies so quickly they cant reply and so crushes them. Good move. On the other hand, he made an enemy of Houses Tully and Stark. Arryn is also likely to come to help the other two (everyone expects them to, and we know they wanted to). Therefore he was making enemies of three strong houses who together could gather a force large enough to crush Tywin, and which could attack from multipple fronts. Now it doesnt look quite so smart

Strategically, he placed his rash son in charge of 15000 men. He also placed his stupid cousin in command of 10000. Both armies were subsequently decimated. A mistake?

The only one i can purely lay at his door is his decision to leave HH. This is nonsensical. For Tywin to believe he could fight through the Riverlands, beat Robb Stark, fight his way back through the Riverlands and be in a position to fight Renly when he comes for KL is astonishing. Also strategically, it was silly because there was no need.

As for the OP. Tywins a good commander. Hes not the best and not the worst. He does some good moves but his reputation is greater then the reality. He is the best at propaganda in all of Westeros though

[Nyrhex]

If Robb had relieved Riverrun, which Tywin didn't know, he'd have more than a few thousand horse as he'd have all the riverlords. Tywin would have to risk a battle on ground of Robb's choosing, near Riverrun, where he has castles to fall back on and can choose his ground. Tywin clearly can't take the Twins, or lay siege, this would take too long, and leave him vulnerable to a force seizing the Ruby Ford. He can't split the army to block Stark communications really, as that would take too many men given the extra forces the Starks could raise. Heading back south quickly allowed him to reach a more secure position, avoid getting cut off, and allowed for the fact Jaime's defeat might not be so total, or complete, and that there might be some way of helping his army.

1. Whatever Robb could get would still fall short of Tywin's host, plus Tywin was getting an extra 10,000 men ready, even if he considered Jamie's host lost or not, he still had the numbers, and choosing the battlefield is not to Robb's choosing, it depends on who get's ther first.

2. Tywin could pretty easily take the Twins, as if he chases Roose's force he only faces 400 men at the Twins. He can either storm them within a day or two of preperations, or force thier surrender, since he has many of the Frey's as hostages now. Working a deal with Walder Frey should not be a problem.

3. How does he not have enough men? If he destroys Robb between him and Stafford's host, he has about ~30,000 men. Even with losses after destroying Robb, and leaving a sizable garrison in the Twins and HH, he still has enough to challange Renly. The North can't get enough men to take the Twins or HH, at least not well after he might need to face Renly.

4. Heading back south ensured that the enemy's mission is a success. It puts him between Roose, Renly and Robb, in the event that he succeeds in getting the drop on Jamie. If Robb fails, he is still facing two Northern hosts, and Renly, only now he still has Roose's host to watch out for. Either way, chasing Roose was the best option.

The assaults he launched failed to make a breach. It's unknown whether he planned further attacks, as he left. I don't really say how you can fail in your objective if you leave sometime during the proceedings. That's really all that can be said.

If you wish we can declare this battle as inconclusive, as Tywin chose to fight another battle. Edmure's objective - to prevent Tywin's crossing, was met. For now. Tywin might have won, and might have lost.

Well, they destroyed most of Stannis' army so, success achieved I'd say.

Anyway, Tywin wasn't attacking the rear of the army was he, he was on the left as you look from the west towards KL.

Tywin is mentioned as leading the right. The army is comprised of 5 "battles": The Van (Garlan), the Center (Tarly), The Rear (Can't recall), the Left (Mace?), and the Right(Tywin). Since the army is marching from west to east, the Van would be up against Stannis's Left, the Left would be against Stannis's Van, and the Right would be against Stannis's Rear. As Garlan was seen near the city, it is safe to assume that Mace's left was too slow, Garlan hit both Stannis's left and Van, and Tywin faced Stannis's rear, commanded by Rolland Storm.

Tywin's objective should be to engage and destroy Stannis's rear, to prevent access to Stannis's reserve fleet, and to prevent escape towrds south. We know he fails in his sector, while Mace never shows up in his, Tarly never manages to get to the action as that is being handeled by Garlan, and in the meantime Stannis's host is split between those who (re)follow Renly's ghost, and those who still fight for Stannis. About half of Stannis's host switches sides, the rest are crushed by thier up-to-a-moment-ago-comrads, and Stannis manages to get 2,000 men and thier horses evacuated. This implies that Garlan wins in his sector, Mace and Tarly never show up but Garlan covers for them, and Tywin fails in his sector.

Tywin's action was of little importance, and the battle was won regardless of his efforts. On the other hand, because of his failure on the Blackwater, Dragonstone was still an active front, and the Northern front is still alive and kicking, despite the Red Wedding. But now we are talking too stratigic, when my original critisism was mainly on the tactical level.

[King Aerys the Just]

Relying on Robb Starks youth and Walder Freys fickleness were both risks. His plan in the first place can be looked at in two ways-he attacks one of his enemies so quickly they cant reply and so crushes them. Good move. On the other hand, he made an enemy of Houses Tully and Stark. Arryn is also likely to come to help the other two (everyone expects them to, and we know they wanted to). Therefore he was making enemies of three strong houses who together could gather a force large enough to crush Tywin, and which could attack from multipple fronts. Now it doesnt look quite so smart

Strategically, he placed his rash son in charge of 15000 men. He also placed his stupid cousin in command of 10000. Both armies were subsequently decimated. A mistake?

The only one i can purely lay at his door is his decision to leave HH. This is nonsensical. For Tywin to believe he could fight through the Riverlands, beat Robb Stark, fight his way back through the Riverlands and be in a position to fight Renly when he comes for KL is astonishing. Also strategically, it was silly because there was no need.

As for the OP. Tywins a good commander. Hes not the best and not the worst. He does some good moves but his reputation is greater then the reality. He is the best at propaganda in all of Westeros though

Did he have all that much choice in regards to the number of enemies he would face? He rather chose to strike the first blow.

Jaime did well up until the (very hard to foresee) battles of the Whispering Wood and Camps; he crushed the western Riverland forces completely. He was rash, yes, but not a poor general overall. As for Stafford, well we don't know how bad he really was. You can't plan for magical goat tracks all the time after all. Besides they are both high ranking Lannisters, expected to command. Not giving any his relatives forces to lead is sending a message to the rest of Westeros that he is the only capable general in the house, which may have negative political consequences.

I disagree on that. He had good reasons for believing that the Renly/Stanly conflict would drag on for much longer than it did, but shadow babies changed that. He also couldn't let Robb plunder his lands freely for too long, or he would look weak to his vassals.

[Nyrhex]

Relying on Robb Starks youth and Walder Freys fickleness were both risks. His plan in the first place can be looked at in two ways-he attacks one of his enemies so quickly they cant reply and so crushes them. Good move. On the other hand, he made an enemy of Houses Tully and Stark. Arryn is also likely to come to help the other two (everyone expects them to, and we know they wanted to). Therefore he was making enemies of three strong houses who together could gather a force large enough to crush Tywin, and which could attack from multipple fronts. Now it doesnt look quite so smart

Strategically, he placed his rash son in charge of 15000 men. He also placed his stupid cousin in command of 10000. Both armies were subsequently decimated. A mistake?

The only one i can purely lay at his door is his decision to leave HH. This is nonsensical. For Tywin to believe he could fight through the Riverlands, beat Robb Stark, fight his way back through the Riverlands and be in a position to fight Renly when he comes for KL is astonishing. Also strategically, it was silly because there was no need.

As for the OP. Tywins a good commander. Hes not the best and not the worst. He does some good moves but his reputation is greater then the reality. He is the best at propaganda in all of Westeros though

You make some good points, but should we not first ask what level of command is asked here? Stratigic, Tactical, Operative? Choosing commanders based on family connections, choosing which army to attack first and which direction to take are good questions, but they represent different levels of command.

You might as well add why hire the cheapest sellswords, whose loyalty and competence go in direct link to the amount you pay them, when you are by far the richest family in Westeros? Not to mention that Tywin goes against the Riverlands, the Starks, the Arryns and the Dragonstone and Storm End's Baratheons.

[The Fallen]

Ah, but we know the westerlings aren't as loyal to their lieges as the northmen ;) and most of them weren't even repaying their loans to Casterly Rock during the reign of Tytos. Tywin won't have had the full muster of the westerlands for these operations.

He he. Well, lucky for the Lannisters it was Tywin who was lord and not Tytos.

BTW, I got what you meant by westerlings.

[Chaircat Meow]

1. Whatever Robb could get would still fall short of Tywin's host, plus Tywin was getting an extra 10,000 men ready, even if he considered Jamie's host lost or not, he still had the numbers, and choosing the battlefield is not to Robb's choosing, it depends on who get's ther first.

The combined Stark-cavalry/riverlords army is pretty much the same size as Tywin's. The other host needed time to prepare, so Tywin couldn't rely on it to help anytime soon. That's one of the reasons he waited at Harrenhal. If Tywin thinks (as you think he does) that Jaime's army is beaten and Robb relieved Riverrun, Robb gets to decide how to defend the Tully lands. There is no pre-set battlefield. If Robb tries to stop Tywin's reeving by going to Harrenhal Tywin will have a greater range of options in picking his ground.

2. Tywin could pretty easily take the Twins, as if he chases Roose's force he only faces 400 men at the Twins. He can either storm them within a day or two of preperations, or force thier surrender, since he has many of the Frey's as hostages now. Working a deal with Walder Frey should not be a problem.

I think you underestimate the difficulties of medieval sieges. The garrison is actually 800 as well, plus whatever of Roose's troops get there. The Twins are a strong keep and many attempts at taking fortifications by assault fail. And while this is going on Tywin is cut off from communication/intelligence from the south. The Freys threw in hook line and sinker with Robb, and are unlikely to switch sides very easily while he looks like he could win.

3. How does he not have enough men? If he destroys Robb between him and Stafford's host, he has about ~30,000 men. Even with losses after destroying Robb, and leaving a sizable garrison in the Twins and HH, he still has enough to challange Renly. The North can't get enough men to take the Twins or HH, at least not well after he might need to face Renly.

I meant he didn't have the men to leave a blocking force on the upper Green Fork. Stafford's host isn't in existence when Tywin decides whether to pursue Roose.

4. Heading back south ensured that the enemy's mission is a success. It puts him between Roose, Renly and Robb, in the event that he succeeds in getting the drop on Jamie. If Robb fails, he is still facing two Northern hosts, and Renly, only now he still has Roose's host to watch out for. Either way, chasing Roose was the best option.

Chasing Robb wasn't an option at all as far as I can see. And Tywin wanted the central position, where he could be in a position of strength and respond to the most pressing threat while tempting the enemy to fight near his base and under his fortifications.

If you wish we can declare this battle as inconclusive, as Tywin chose to fight another battle. Edmure's objective - to prevent Tywin's crossing, was met. For now. Tywin might have won, and might have lost.

Lets settle on this then.

We disagree because I think being cut off at the Ruby Ford would have seemed like a serious threat to Tywin, and I disagree that taking the Twins was a very good option. You shouldn't rely on taking solid castles speedily. I also think Tywin just didn't know what was happening in the riverlands and needed to find out before he could really plan his next move, as well as believing there was a small chance he could do something to avert a possible disaster at Riverrun.

[Naathi Prince]

Tywin allowed Joffrey to decide Ned Stark's fate. That was a strategic error that would have cost his family greatly, if it wasn't for a shadow baby.

That's a silly statement, Tywin was in the field, cut off from communication, at that point.

[Chaircat Meow]

Relying on Robb Starks youth and Walder Freys fickleness were both risks.

Do you think Robb's plan was the obvious/likely thing to do (cos I don't; that was why it was a good plan)? I think Tywin just didn't expect him to split the army at all, and the fact Frey was very unlikely to commit would only push the idea out of Tywin's mind if it ever entered there at all. He didn't really gamble on Frey as such, imo. I also disagree that he gambled on Robb's youth. He marched against him because he thought he wouldn't attack him when fortified at the Ruby Ford. He just laced this judgment with a bit of prejudice against young people, but he wasn't bargaining on Robb being rash there.

[Naathi Prince]

Yea Tywin totally sucks because he couldn't magically predict that a 15 year old kid would kick Jaime's ass and that his brother in law would sign up to join the North.

[Nyrhex]

The combined Stark-cavalry/riverlords army is pretty much the same size as Tywin's. The other host needed time to prepare, so Tywin couldn't rely on it to help anytime soon. That's one of the reasons he waited at Harrenhal. If Tywin thinks (as you think he does) that Jaime's army is beaten and Robb relieved Riverrun, Robb gets to decide how to defend the Tully lands. There is no pre-set battlefield. If Robb tries to stop Tywin's reeving by going to Harrenhal Tywin will have a greater range of option in picking his ground.

But if Tywin destroy's Robb's main army, that leaves Robb trapped in the Riverlands with ~20,000 (tops) and no reinforcements. That gives Tywin time to prepare Stafford's host and destroy Robb. He has the numbers. And it beats what he did with HH and Battle of the Fords.

I think you underestimate the difficulties of medieval sieges. The garrison is actually 800 as well, plus whatever of Roose's troops get there. The Twins are a strong keep and many attempts at taking fortifications by assault fail. And while this is going on Tywin is cut off from communication/intelligence from the south. The Freys threw in hook line and sinker with Robb, and unlikely to switch sides very easily while he looks like he could win.

True, forgot 400 Frey and 400 Northeners. Still, not something that should stop a ~20,000 strong army. Robb was sure he could take the Twins with ~18,500 men, against 4,000. Then there is the option that the threat of killing hostages would open the gates without a battle. The Freys may have gone with Robb, but they can smell a chance when they get one. They betrayed Robb when he had a stroke of bad luck. What we are talking about is Tywin on thier doorstep, ready to butcher his way to the other side. Whose side do you think they would take?

I don't see many get to the Twins from Roose'e host. Other then Roose and little of his horse, the rest would fall to Tywin's cavalry during the battle of the Green Fork or the following day. If Tywin marches fast to the Twins, the garrison might swell to around a 1,000, but I don't see it getting larger then that.

I meant he didn't have the men to leave a blocking force on the upper Green Fork. Stafford's host isn't in existence when Tywin decides whether to pursue Roose.

Correct, but Tywin still has enough time to send word to Stafford to hurry up. Robb has no where to go. If he goes west, he would probably beat Stafford, but lose Riverrun and the Riverlands to Tywin. If he ravages te Westerlands, Tywin will simply go after him, knowing that Robb is the one with his back against the wall, and that he can try and raise more men here (not alot, but better then Robb's none).

Chasing Robb wasn't an option at all as far as I can see. And Tywin wanted the central position, where he could be a position of strength and respond to the most pressing threat while tempting the enemy to fight near his base and under his fortifications.

In my opinion, chasing Robb if he went west was possible, and he still should have had enough time to reach KL with Renly's host. Stannis taking Renly's horse and going stright to KL without Renly's infantry and siege engines wasn't realy a possibility without Mel's shadow-assasin. Not exactly something one can plan for.

Lets settle on this then.

Agreed

We disagree because I think being cut off at the Ruby Ford would have seemed like a serious threat to Tywin, and I disagree that taking the Twins was a very good option. You shouldn't rely on taking solid castles speedily. I also think Tywin just didn't know what was happening in the riverlands and needed to find out before he could really plan his next move, as well as believing there was a small chance he could do something to avert a possible disaster at Riverrun.

Fair argument. On the other hand I believe that if you see your enemy has set a trap for you and you fell for it, don't follow his plan. Try and work it to your advantage. I realy don't see Robb planning on Roose to lead his army to utter destruction. Tywin should have (IMHO) accepted the fact he had been played, and changed plans. No way in hell could he reach Jaime, so at least finish off what you started, or you risk losing both options.

[Frey Pie]

Did he have all that much choice in regards to the number of enemies he would face? He rather chose to strike the first blow.

Jaime did well up until the (very hard to foresee) battles of the Whispering Wood and Camps; he crushed the western Riverland forces completely. He was rash, yes, but not a poor general overall. As for Stafford, well we don't know how bad he really was. You can't plan for magical goat tracks all the time after all. Besides they are both high ranking Lannisters, expected to command. Not giving any his relatives forces to lead is sending a message to the rest of Westeros that he is the only capable general in the house, which may have negative political consequences.

I disagree on that. He had good reasons for believing that the Renly/Stanly conflict would drag on for much longer than it did, but shadow babies changed that. He also couldn't let Robb plunder his lands freely for too long, or he would look weak to his vassals.

No but getting into the war in the first place was a risk. The Tullys are a well connected family and by attacking them he would have to factor in the Arryn and Stark response. I dont think it can be argued that he wasnt fortunate to not have to contend with 15000 men under Bronze Yohn or the BF from the Vale aswel as Robbs men. Also military commanders shouldnt be given because of family connections or favourites. Robbs reasons for giving Roose command were sound. I agree Jaimes not bad, but Stafford was a dolt according to every source. This is a mistake imo

And its infinately better to look weak then to lose. Had Tywin won past Edmure theres no doubt defeat awaited him, if not to Robb, then to Stannis

You make some good points, but should we not first ask what level of command is asked here? Stratigic, Tactical, Operative? Choosing commanders based on family connections, choosing which army to attack first and which direction to take are good questions, but they represent different levels of command.

You might as well add why hire the cheapest sellswords, whose loyalty and competence go in direct link to the amount you pay them, when you are by far the richest family in Westeros? Not to mention that Tywin goes against the Riverlands, the Starks, the Arryns and the Dragonstone and Storm End's Baratheons.

Well i think strategically placing Jaime in control of a pre-emptive agressing army is a good move. Leaving him to stew at a siege is a bad move though

Do you think Robb's plan was the obvious/likely thing to do (cos I don't; that was why it was a good plan)? I think Tywin just didn't expect him to split the army at all, and the fact Frey was very unlikely to commit would only push the idea out of Tywin's mind if it ever entered there at all. He didn't really gamble on Frey as such, imo. I also disagree that he gambled on Robb's youth. He marched against him because he thought he wouldn't attack him when fortified at the Ruby Ford. He just laced this judgment with a bit of prejudice against young people, but he wasn't bargaining on Robb being rash there.

No not obvious at all. Its a possibility though, and if possible a general should plan for all scenarios. Im not slighting Tywin, but the question was asked did he make any strategic errors and he did