Will Massey Abandon/Betray Stannis

[Lady Pounce of Whiskerrun]

I agree with others that it's possible that Ser Justin will betray Stannis. However, I don't think he will. Stannis remains his best hope for reaping any sort of reward/honors--similar to what Davos pointed out to Sallador Saan when he was trying to convince Saan to keep faith with Stannis.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Massey will either stick with Stannis, or meet with Dany and an Iron Bank envoy in Braavos.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Massey will either stick with Stannis, or meet with Dany and an Iron Bank envoy in Braavos.

I say the latter.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I say the latter.

Depends on timing really. Massey might stick in Braavos only to hear Dany is missing, or he might hear tales of how she and her khalasar defeated the Volanteen Fleet as well as Yunkai.

[Som Tin Wong]

Or he might be incompetent and fail to get 20000 men even if he tries.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Depends on timing really. Massey might stick in Braavos only to hear Dany is missing, or he might hear tales of how she and her khalasar defeated the Volanteen Fleet as well as Yunkai.

He will hear about Meereen regardless of any new information regarding Dany. Considering that just about every reputable mercenary is already under contract and involved int he Meereen affair, Massey is more than likely to head that way.

[History of Westeros]

Considering that just about every reputable mercenary is already under contract and involved int he Meereen affair, Massey is more than likely to head that way.

We know of several named mercenary companies who are not at Slaver's Bay. The Ragged Standard, the Bright Banners, the Iron Shields, the Maiden's Men. Perhaps some of these are defunct, but also there are bound to many we have never heard the names of. The Golden Company has existed for only ~100 years, but the Second Sons are hundreds of years old, so there is precedent for these companies existing across many generations.

There are also a number of reasons why certain companies would not want to go to Slaver's Bay. The heat and the necessity of sailing a long way are simple reasons. Another is that for much of Feast (meaning, concurrent to most of Dance) we are told that Lys and Tyrosh and Myr are involved in a trade war that hadn't actually boiled over into actual war, but was threatening to. This is precisely why the Golden Company was hired. That's the contract they broke.

Are we to assume those three cities, between them, only hired the Golden Company and no other mercenaries? That would be very strange.

I see the point that Yunkai was offering absurd rates (twice normal plus bonuses), which indicates very strongly that many sellswords would jump at the chance, but note that even Harry Strickland wasn't thrilled about the idea, despite all that. Another clue that Slaver's Bay is not so attractive to mercenaries comes from Barristan, who points out that the reason the Second Sons are so far east is because no one in the west will hire them anymore thanks to Mero's leadership.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

We know of several named mercenary companies who are not at Slaver's Bay. The Ragged Standard, the Bright Banners, the Iron Shields, the Maiden's Men. Perhaps some of these are defunct, but also there are bound to many we have never heard the names of. The Golden Company has existed for only ~100 years, but the Second Sons are hundreds of years old, so there is precedent for these companies existing across many generations.

There are also a number of reasons why certain companies would not want to go to Slaver's Bay. The heat and the necessity of sailing a long way are simple reasons. Another is that for much of Feast (meaning, concurrent to most of Dance) we are told that Lys and Tyrosh and Myr are involved in a trade war that hadn't actually boiled over into actual war, but was threatening to. This is precisely why the Golden Company was hired. That's the contract they broke.

Are we to assume those three cities, between them, only hired the Golden Company and no other mercenaries? That would be very strange.

I see the point that Yunkai was offering absurd rates (twice normal plus bonuses), which indicates very strongly that many sellswords would jump at the chance, but note that even Harry Strickland wasn't thrilled about the idea, despite all that. Another clue that Slaver's Bay is not so attractive to mercenaries comes from Barristan, who points out that the reason the Second Sons are so far east is because no one in the west will hire them anymore thanks to Mero's leadership.

Well, I did say just about....not all. I'm well aware that other companies exist, however, the most notable companies and those with the most battle experience are indeed at Slaver's Bay. My contention was never that Massey could raise 20,000 men, but that he could not raise 20,000 plus troops of any real quality.

As to Slaver's Bay, the plunder from the largest and richest of the great slaving cities is one hell of an investment, in addition to the wages being paid by the great masters. We are to assume that the best of the best are going to take part in this conflict. Taking risks are what being a mercenary is all about.

As to the trade war that is not a war, the companies that they do have will be under contract. Massey could surely use the money of the iron bank to offer substantially better deals, but contract breaking is not good for a companies reputation. The Golden Company had unique circumstances.

[Lord Spark of House Spark]

harrys swift might be but the mountains men aren't

I never picked up on that one.

It would be the ultimate test for No-one, meeting some of the men on her list, and becoming Arya again, sticking them with the pointy end. Perhaps Massey and Swift could end up in the same place at the same time as Arya

[Petyr Patter]

Massey will either stick with Stannis, or meet with Dany and an Iron Bank envoy in Braavos.

Keep in mind, though, that the Iron Bank is a Braavosi institution, and Braavos was founded by slaves escaping the Valyrian empire. They see Dragons as the tools the Valyrians used to conquer and enslave the world.

The fact that Dany is a Valyrian (sort of) with dragons means they aren't eager to back her. The fact she is having a reputation for economic instability and diplomatic untrustworthiness means the Iron Bank won't want to touch her.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Keep in mind, though, that the Iron Bank is a Braavosi institution, and Braavos was founded by slaves escaping the Valyrian empire. They see Dragons as the tools the Valyrians used to conquer and enslave the world.

The fact that Dany is a Valyrian (sort of) with dragons means they aren't eager to back her. The fact she is having a reputation for economic instability and diplomatic untrustworthiness means the Iron Bank won't want to touch her.

The Braavosi are founded by slaves. What has Dany been doing? Smashing three of the four (I think that's right) major slave cities and she has freed about 100,000 slaves I would assume. So while the Braavosi might be wary of her, they realize she would likely not be too big of a enemy unless they provoke her. If she wins the bid for the Iron Throne, she will be approached to pay the money off of Robert's debt, Cersei's debt, and quite possibly Stannis' debt.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

He will hear about Meereen regardless of any new information regarding Dany. Considering that just about every reputable mercenary is already under contract and involved int he Meereen affair, Massey is more than likely to head that way.

He might hear of Meereen, but if he hears she is missing and probably dead, he wouldn't rush over there. Either way is possible, it's just up to GRRM to do what he wants.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

He might hear of Meereen, but if he hears she is missing and probably dead, he wouldn't rush over there. Either way is possible, it's just up to GRRM to do what he wants.

He would rush over there for any troops to had regardless of what he hears about Dany.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Keep in mind, though, that the Iron Bank is a Braavosi institution, and Braavos was founded by slaves escaping the Valyrian empire. They see Dragons as the tools the Valyrians used to conquer and enslave the world.

The fact that Dany is a Valyrian (sort of) with dragons means they aren't eager to back her. The fact she is having a reputation for economic instability and diplomatic untrustworthiness means the Iron Bank won't want to touch her.

Well, the Targaryen ruled Westeros for near 300 years. I'm pretty sure they had good relations with Braavos during this time. I don't foresee them having any problem with Dany being back on the throne.

[Petyr Patter]

The Braavosi are founded by slaves. What has Dany been doing? Smashing three of the four (I think that's right) major slave cities and she has freed about 100,000 slaves I would assume. So while the Braavosi might be wary of her, they realize she would likely not be too big of a enemy unless they provoke her. If she wins the bid for the Iron Throne, she will be approached to pay the money off of Robert's debt, Cersei's debt, and quite possibly Stannis' debt.

Well, the Targaryen ruled Westeros for near 300 years. I'm pretty sure they had good relations with Braavos during this time. I don't foresee them having any problem with Dany being back on the throne.

Yeah, she freed slaves. What about her heirs? Would they be so meritorious with their use of dragons?

More importantly, the only reason to back a pretender is to get someone to pay back the debt. Everyone remember what happened last time Dany did a big exchange? One dragon for 8,000 unsullied? Who in their right mind would ever sell her an army again?

In a world without a very good legal enforcement system, reputation is everything, and Dany destroyed hers. The Iron Bank giving her a ton of money to take over and establish herself as one of the most powerful rulers in the known world, could not expect to get their money back, because Dany would have no incentive to repay.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Yeah, she freed slaves. What about her heirs? Would they be so meritorious with their use of dragons?

More importantly, the only reason to back a pretender is to get someone to pay back the debt. Everyone remember what happened last time Dany did a big exchange? One dragon for 8,000 unsullied? Who in their right mind would ever sell her an army again?

In a world without a very good legal enforcement system, reputation is everything, and Dany destroyed hers. The Iron Bank giving her a ton of money to take over and establish herself as one of the most powerful rulers in the known world, could not expect to get their money back, because Dany would have no incentive to repay.

You are oversimplifying things. What she did in in Astapor was a unique situation. Her betrayal of the wise masters was meant to end the brutalization of young boys and the murder of innocents. The rest of her march has been to put an end to slavery. Yunkai released their slaves and Dany marched on. Meereen refused and she took the city.

Secondly, Dany does not need the banks money. She has grown quite wealthy from the spoils taken from Meereen. Its in the bank's best interest to reach out to Dany. She can restore order, repay all debts with interest, and make sure that future business in Westeros is prosperous for the bank.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

He would rush over there for any troops to had regardless of what he hears about Dany.

Perhaps. GRRM can go either way.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Yeah, she freed slaves. What about her heirs? Would they be so meritorious with their use of dragons?

More importantly, the only reason to back a pretender is to get someone to pay back the debt. Everyone remember what happened last time Dany did a big exchange? One dragon for 8,000 unsullied? Who in their right mind would ever sell her an army again?

In a world without a very good legal enforcement system, reputation is everything, and Dany destroyed hers. The Iron Bank giving her a ton of money to take over and establish herself as one of the most powerful rulers in the known world, could not expect to get their money back, because Dany would have no incentive to repay.

Well, Braavos has a choice. Either back Aegon (another Targaryen) or back Dany, the one with actual dragons. I'm not saying that Braavos is going to snuggle up to Dany and declare for her, I'm just saying that Justin could, with Stannis' Iron Bank credit, deliver 20,000 mercenaries to her. When he does that, the Iron Bank will have to back Dany or at least demand repayment from her. As Stallion said, Dany "ruined" her reputation by completely eradicating slavery in an entire city in not even a day. That's efficiency not even the Faceless Men could boast of. Dany would have plenty of incentive to pay back. Jon would get her to one way or another repay it. Read his reaction in ADWD about when he finds out Cersei refused to repay the Iron Bank. Then there's Tyrion who would tell her the same thing, Arya can tell her what the Faceless Men are capable of, and many more advisors would tell her that not repaying would be a braindead decision.

[tbc]

Who does he betray Stannis for, and who would want him?

If he's hired a mercenary army, with Iron Bank money, then he can't side with the Iron Throne, as the Iron Bank is trying to bring the throne down, and backing Stannis as its best bet for recovering its money.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Who does he betray Stannis for, and who would want him?

If he's hired a mercenary army, with Iron Bank money, then he can't side with the Iron Throne, as the Iron Bank is trying to bring the throne down, and backing Stannis as its best bet for recovering its money.

For Dany. Massey is a loyal man, but also a dragon man.