Cersei's choice, Tommen or Myrcella

[Lion of Judah]

Didn't Tywin also suggest marriage? He brings it up with Jaime and Jaime storms away in disgust after bringing up Oberyn's sexual proclivities.

Yes...I think your right. Jamie says something along the lines of Oberyn sleeps with men as well or something of the sort.

[jarl the climber]

The Red Viper played with the idea of marrying Cersei if she agreed to support Myrcella as Queen instead of Tommen as King in line with Dornish law. Tyrion himself is unsure what Cersei would do if such a thing was proposed. So if given a choice would Cersei have supported Myrcella over Tommen?

Tyrion himself did not know what descision she would make. I can't really see her going to Dorne and living with him, Ellaria Sand and his bastard daughters. I do not see Casterly Rock and the West backing her daughter and Trystane over Margery and Tommen irregardless of Tywin being dead and her having the best claim to the Rock.

Didn't Tywin also suggest marriage? He brings it up with Jaime and Jaime storms away in disgust after bringing up Oberyn's sexual proclivities.

Yes, Tywin was trying to marry her off. I think the conversation ended with Tywin more or less disowning Jaimie.

[mrunderhill]

Didn't Tywin also suggest marriage? He brings it up with Jaime and Jaime storms away in disgust after bringing up Oberyn's sexual proclivities.

Yes Tywin suggested marriage first and rejected Oberyn due to the trouble it would cause with the Tyrells, but later he seems to have changed his mind.

Lord Tywin went on. "Oberyn Martell might suit, but the Tyrells would take that very ill. So we must look to the sons. I assume you do not object to wedding a man younger than yourself?"

Then later he tells Jaime this.

I mean to find a new husband for Cersei. Oberyn Martell perhaps, once I convince Lord Tyrell that the match does not threaten Highgarden. And it is past time you were wed. The Tyrells are now insisting that Margaery be wed to Tommen, but if I were to offer you instead - "

Cersei may have been acting alone, but I don't think so.

[Lord Damian]

Cersei would take the Red Viper. Absolutely, why? she sees in Margerary, ... herself to a great extent. She distrusts and hates the Tyrells and she should. It takes one to know one.

[Young Nan]

I think she'd side with Tommen, because he's a more sure bet for being and staying in power. Cersei isn't a feminist. She wants to be taken seriously and resents that she isn't, due to her sex, but at the same time, she herself is disdainful of other women. People also are overestimating her love for her children. IMO, 90% of that love is really just love for the power she gets through them. The other 10% is narcissism.

Myrcella is a long shot, and by supporting her, Cersei would be taking a large risk which could cost her power. Tommen is the sure bet, so I think she'd support him.

[Queen of the Andals]

I think The Red Viper had this exactly right when he played with the idea of marrying Cersei if she agreed to support Myrcella as Queen. Cersei will see Myrcella as an extention of herself and will choose her daughter over her son. The men in Cersei's life have all been disappointments to her so it's not a jump of faith to think she's support Myrcella.

[SeanF]

If she had married Oberyn, I think she'd have been very tempted to proclaim Myrcella as Queen. If she succeeds, she becomes Queen Regent on Myrcella's behalf, rather than being sister-in-law to the Prince of Dorne.

[Dagon Greyjoy]

Funny thing is, if Oberyn Martell had survived his duel against the Mountain, House Martell would pretty much control Westeros. Oberyn had already poisoned Tywin: All he had to do at this point was wed Cersei and make Myrcella Queen.

Tywin croaks, Cersei becomes Regent. Doran becomes Hand. Cersei would agree to this because she loathed the Tyrells with a passion. Can't imagine the Martells keeping Jaime in the Kingsguard: Presumably they would kick him out á la Barristan. At this point, the Tyrells would act, most likely wedding Jaime to Marge and making him Lord of Casterly Rock. Odds are, House Tyrell would back Tommen. Oberyn brings Tyrion to Dorne as a hostage guest, guaranteeing Jaime's good behavior. Whenever Tyrion gets restless and suggests leaving Dorne, the Martells kindly remind him Cersei tried to frame him for Joff Coff Coff's death and he would most certainly not be safe at all in King's Landing. Ultimately, in case Myrcella falls, Doran hedges bets: Sends Arianne to Fake Aegon, Quentyn to Dany.

Let's say Arianne succeeds and Quentyn fails (likely). Euron keeps fucking with the Reach, which keeps the Tyrells busy: Now the Martells control both the ruling House and one of the Targaryen pretenders (unfortunately the one without dragons). They also keep Tyrion in Dorne, merrily drinking and whoring his way to an early grave.

The only wild cards in this scenario are Daenerys, Stannis, Sansa/Littlefinger and to an extent Asha Greyjoy. Alas, Oberyn Martell had to go all Princess Bride on Gregor Clegane.

[Yukle]

If Tywin is subtracted from the picture, then I think Cersei definitely would support Myrcella. She has a certain resentment towards Tommen that she may not feel towards Myrcella.

Well put. She wouldn't tolerate a war between the two of them, she'd demand an immediate resolution. She wouldn't have the patience or the spirt to last a war between her children.