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Littlefinger's arc in Winds of Winter: westword bound!


CountFJM

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Apologies in advance as I've lurked long enough to know LF's motives (power, chaos, Sansa, etc) have been debated to death :) But I'm less interested in debating his EVIL MASTER PLAN and more interested in surmising his specific, next moves in WOW (assuming Sansa/Alayne went get dropped for a second straight book), especially because I don’t buy for a second that he has any plan to rule the Vale.

But I do think he has a plan for the Vale’s armies. And I think I know where they’re going next: the Riverlands. More specifically: The Twins.

My theory is that by the end of WOW:

1) “Alayne” marries Harry the Heir, and reveals her true identity

2) Sweetrobin meets with an “accident” at a convenient time/place

3) LF motivates the new Lord of the Eyrie to march on the Twins and

4) (this is where I’m a little uncertain, but it will be tricksy and cunning) LF artfully suggests he hold Riverrun with Sansa as his guest (her mother’s home! She’ll be comfortable and not at all creepily hit on!), perhaps agreeably giving up his claims to the Vale and/or Harrenhal, while Harry presses her claim up north.

Reasons I'm going with:

A) When we last saw LF (aFfC 41, Alayne 2), he was too blithely aware of his tenuous position in the Vale to make me believe it's anything but a stopover point:

"When Robert dies, Harry the Heir becomes Lord Harrold, Defender of the Vale and Lord of the Eyrie. Jon Arryn's bannermen will never love me, nor our silly, shaking Robert, but they will love their Young Falcon... and when they come together for his wedding, and you come out... clad in a maiden's cloak of white and grey with a direwolf emblazoned on the back... why, every knight in the Vale will pledge his sword to win you back your birthright. So those are your gifts from me, my sweet Sansa... Harry, the Eyrie, and Winterfell.” –AffC ch 41

Not a bad windfall Sansa! If you can take him at his word (spoiler alert: you can’t). I think the quote above suggests LF’s play with the Lords Declarant is a classic-bait-and-switch (and his move with Lyn Corbray just buys him time), positioning them firmly behind Harry the Heir while making a backdoor move marrying Harry and Sansa before her big reveal. Bronze Yohn and any allies he has remaining are assuaged not only having his own ward take up Jon Arryn’s seat, but FINALLY getting the opportunity (created by LF) to jump in on the war Lysa kept the Vale out of. LF flips his biggest enemy by (once again) understanding and manipulating his motivations

B) On that note, I don’t buy that he’s going anywhere near the North. Winterfell is a canard for Sansa – I don’t blame her, but her desperate wish for home is his trump card over her. Crafty LF isn’t throwing his bright, shiny new army away on Moat Cailin and a protracted war against Stannis, the Boltons, the Frays, Northmen TBD, and of course, winter. Nope, he’s just banking on throwing it at…

C) THE FRAYS. As Emmon Frey will tell you, there's no love lost between the newly raised Lord Paramount of the Trident and his family, and as everyone else will tell you, the Frays are not exactly trustworthy vassals. They're an obvious obstacle to any move LF makes, north or west. More importantly, they are scattered and vulnerable – one host is North in Winterfell (their primary host? not sure on numbers), and another is west besieging/occupying Riverrun (I think Emmon's eventual garrison numbered only 300), leaving the Twins undermanned. Equally important is that their apparent allies are all dead (Tywin, Kevan, Joffrey, Jaime?) or occupied elsewhere (Boltons, Cersei, Jaime?). And Freys seem to be dropping like flies as of aDwD, no? Seems like the type of vacuum a devious man could operate in…

An Eyrie host with the full power of its united lords (the Lords Declarant brought a token force of 6K with them to the Moon gate alone) marching under the symbolic banner of Hoster Tully’s granddaughter would sweep across the Riverlands, driving off the last dregs of Fray and Lannister forces while former Stark/Tully allies flocked to their standard. And it's all made possible by LF's leadership, who can no doubt wax poetic about the Fray's killing the woman he loved without resorting to (too many) lies.

D) The Frays killed Cat. Obvious, but bears repeating

E) Riverrun was his home and the place he fell in love with her...and also Hoster Tully's home, the big Lord who took it all away. Don't know if you noticed, but LF likes his revenge on big Lords who wronged him and none wronged him bigger than Hoster

F) Obligatory EVIL MASTER PLAN note: I’ve seen some form of “LF does it for the game,” “LF is buying/bribing his way to the top,” etc etc in most of his threads but why would he even care to be king? Seems like a dangerous position and LF isn’t a man to put a bulls-eye on his back. I'm not convinced any of his actions to date have even brought him closer to the throne (he seems to kill off or abandon powerful friends/allies as easily as he makes them). Riverrun (with Sansa) seems a far more realistic ambition

G) Obligatory Blackfish note: Isn't he the perfect LF ally in this scenario? LF offers him 1) an army to take back the Riverlands 2) a Tully in Riverrun (Sansa, himself or TBD), 3) a chance for vengeance against the Frays/Lannisters and the Boltons (once Harry marches north), 4) legitimacy/a pardon from the crown with his influence in KL and (nominal) position as Lord Protector of the Vale. meanwhile LF gets back 1) a war leader all the Vale Lords know and trust and 2) THE rallying point for Tully loyalists. Seems more probable than BF abandoning Tully lands to off Fray kids in the stables..

H) Finally, I know I’m in dangerous waters arguing GRRM narrative patterns (lol), but one of my personal favorite plot devices he uses is when one evil bastard is set up to unleash badassery on another evil bastard in a way that consistently surprises the reader (using “evil bastard” metaphorically, lol), e.g. Ramsay taking out Theon at Winterfell, Victarrion baring down on the Yunkai fleet, the Hound doing Hound things, Daario doing Daario things, etc. He’s got this incredible talent for making you genuinely root for the most unredeemable characters by setting them up against even bigger a**holes. Who better to take out the traitorous Frays than the biggest backstabber of them all?

Apologies in advance is this exact argument and all these exact plot points have been suggested already, first post and i gotta lot of catching up to do :)

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Apologies in advance as I've lurked long enough to know LF's motives (power, chaos, Sansa, etc) have been debated to death :) But I'm less interested in debating his EVIL MASTER PLAN ™ and more interested in surmising his specific, next moves in WOW (assuming Sansa/Alayne went get dropped for a second straight book), especially because I don’t buy for a second that he has any plan to rule the Vale.

But I do think he has a plan for the Vale’s armies. And I think I know where they’re going next: the Riverlands. More specifically: The Twins.

My theory is that by the end of WOW:

1) “Alayne” marries Harry the Heir, and reveals her true identity

2) Sweetrobin meets with an “accident” at a convenient time/place

3) LF motivates the new Lord of the Eyrie to march on the Twins and

4) (this is where I’m a little uncertain, but it will be tricksy and cunning) LF artfully suggests he hold Riverrun with Sansa as his guest (her mother’s home! She’ll be comfortable and not at all creepily hit on!), perhaps agreeably giving up his claims to the Vale and/or Harrenhal, while Harry presses her claim up north.

Reasons I'm going with:

A) When we last saw LF (aFfC 41, Alayne 2), he was too blithely aware of his tenuous position in the Vale to make me believe it's anything but a stopover point:

"When Robert dies, Harry the Heir becomes Lord Harrold, Defender of the Vale and Lord of the Eyrie. Jon Arryn's bannermen will never love me, nor our silly, shaking Robert, but they will love their Young Falcon... and when they come together for his wedding, and you come out... clad in a maiden's cloak of white and grey with a direwolf emblazoned on the back... why, every knight in the Vale will pledge his sword to win you back your birthright. So those are your gifts from me, my sweet Sansa... Harry, the Eyrie, and Winterfell.” –AffC ch 41

Not a bad windfall Sansa! If you can take him at his word (spoiler alert: you can’t). I think the quote above suggests LF’s play with the Lords Declarant is a classic-bait-and-switch (and his move with Lyn Corbray just buys him time), positioning them firmly behind Harry the Heir while making a backdoor move marrying Harry and Sansa before her big reveal. Bronze Yohn and any allies he has remaining are assuaged not only having his own ward take up Jon Arryn’s seat, but FINALLY getting the opportunity (created by LF) to jump in on the war Lysa kept the Vale out of. LF flips his biggest enemy by (once again) understanding and manipulating his motivations

B) On that note, I don’t buy that he’s going anywhere near the North. Winterfell is a canard for Sansa – I don’t blame her, but her desperate wish for home is his trump card over her. Crafty LF isn’t throwing his bright, shiny new army away on Moat Cailin and a protracted war against Stannis, the Boltons, the Frays, Northmen TBD, and of course, winter. Nope, he’s just banking on throwing it at…

C) THE FRAYS. As Emmon Frey will tell you, there's no love lost between the newly raised Lord Paramount of the Trident and his family, and as everyone else will tell you, the Frays are not exactly trustworthy vassals. They're an obvious obstacle to any move LF makes, north or west. More importantly, they are scattered and vulnerable – one host is North in Winterfell (their primary host? not sure on numbers), and another is west besieging/occupying Riverrun (I think Emmon's eventual garrison numbered only 300), leaving the Twins undermanned. Equally important is that their apparent allies are all dead (Tywin, Kevan, Joffrey, Jaime?) or occupied elsewhere (Boltons, Cersei, Jaime?). And Freys seem to be dropping like flies as of aDwD, no? Seems like the type of vacuum a devious man could operate in…

An Eyrie host with the full power of its united lords (the Lords Declarant brought a token force of 6K with them to the Moon gate alone) marching under the symbolic banner of Hoster Tully’s granddaughter would sweep across the Riverlands, driving off the last dregs of Fray and Lannister forces while former Stark/Tully allies flocked to their standard. And it's all made possible by LF's leadership, who can no doubt wax poetic about the Fray's killing the woman he loved without resorting to (too many) lies.

D) The Frays killed Cat. Obvious, but bears repeating

E) Riverrun was his home and the place he fell in love with her...and also Hoster Tully's home, the big Lord who took it all away. Don't know if you noticed, but LF likes his revenge on big Lords who wronged him and none wronged him bigger than Hoster

F) Obligatory EVIL MASTER PLAN note: I’ve seen some form of “LF does it for the game,” “LF is buying/bribing his way to the top,” etc etc in most of his threads but why would he even care to be king? Seems like a dangerous position and LF isn’t a man to put a bulls-eye on his back. I'm not convinced any of his actions to date have even brought him closer to the throne (he seems to kill off or abandon powerful friends/allies as easily as he makes them). Riverrun (with Sansa) seems a far more realistic ambition

G) Obligatory Blackfish note: Isn't he the perfect LF ally in this scenario? LF offers him 1) an army to take back the Riverlands 2) a Tully in Riverrun (Sansa, himself or TBD), 3) a chance for vengeance against the Frays/Lannisters and the Boltons (once Harry marches north), 4) legitimacy/a pardon from the crown with his influence in KL and (nominal) position as Lord Protector of the Vale. meanwhile LF gets back 1) a war leader all the Vale Lords know and trust and 2) THE rallying point for Tully loyalists. Seems more probable than BF abandoning Tully lands to off Fray kids in the stables..

H) Finally, I know I’m in dangerous waters arguing GRRM narrative patterns (lol), but one of my personal favorite plot devices he uses is when one evil bastard is set up to unleash badassery on another evil bastard in a way that consistently surprises the reader (using “evil bastard” metaphorically, lol), e.g. Ramsay taking out Theon at Winterfell, Victarrion baring down on the Yunkai fleet, the Hound doing Hound things, Daario doing Daario things, etc. He’s got this incredible talent for making you genuinely root for the most unredeemable characters by setting them up against even bigger a**holes. Who better to take out the traitorous Frays than the biggest backstabber of them all?

Apologies in advance is this exact argument and all these exact plot points have been suggested already, first post and i gotta lot of catching up to do :)

Great post , I've also been of the belief that Littlefinger has his sights set on destroying the Freys. There are so many positives for Littlefinger in attacking the Freys that I'm sure that it will be his main move in the next book. I think that Littlefinger has his sights on creating a new title , Lord of Rivers and Vale and ruling the Vale and Riverlands from Harrenhall with Robin/Harry and Edmure as his bannermen so when Stannis comes south or Dany/Aegon goes north he will be in perfect position to decide who wins the war by throwing his support to one side or the other.

You might want to think about posting this on the General Forum as you will get more responses.

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Excellent post, especially your argument for the BF to turn up in the Vale.

Great post , I've also been of the belief that Littlefinger has his sights set on destroying the Freys. There are so many positives for Littlefinger in attacking the Freys that I'm sure that it will be his main move in the next book. I think that Littlefinger has his sights on creating a new title , Lord of Rivers and Vale and ruling the Vale and Riverlands from Harrenhall with Robin/Harry and Edmure as his bannermen so when Stannis comes south or Dany/Aegon goes north he will be in perfect position to decide who wins the war by throwing his support to one side or the other.

You might want to think about posting this on the General Forum as you will get more responses.

Baelish acknowledges that Harrenhall is cursed, and it wasn't the castle he grew up in, or the castle lords have sworn their allegience to for 300 years. In my personal opinion only Arya could end the curse of Harrenhall but thats a different topic. Baelish is already the legal liege lord of the Riverlands. Back to the op. One point we disagree on is Baelish wanting to be king, and his actions so far not bringing him closer to that. He has gone from one of the poorest and lowest lords in Westeros to probably the 6th/5th/4th highest. Someone in Baelishes original position cannot become king, but a liege lord can. I originally thought like you did, that he just wanted revenge and that ruling the Vale and Riverlands got him that revenge. But I cannot completely ignore the tv show, and they have made it obvious that at least in the show his target is the thrown itself. If you think back to GOT, LF may have actually supported Neds claim to the thrown if he thought he could work from that position, whisper in ears until he wed Lysa just like he did with the Lannisters in power. I don't think LF gives a damn how it go's down, but he knew the Vale was his in the whole time.

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Excellent post, especially your argument for the BF to turn up in the Vale.

Baelish acknowledges that Harrenhall is cursed, and it wasn't the castle he grew up in, or the castle lords have sworn their allegience to for 300 years. In my personal opinion only Arya could end the curse of Harrenhall but thats a different topic. Baelish is already the legal liege lord of the Riverlands. Back to the op. One point we disagree on is Baelish wanting to be king, and his actions so far not bringing him closer to that. He has gone from one of the poorest and lowest lords in Westeros to probably the 6th/5th/4th highest. Someone in Baelishes original position cannot become king, but a liege lord can. I originally thought like you did, that he just wanted revenge and that ruling the Vale and Riverlands got him that revenge. But I cannot completely ignore the tv show, and they have made it obvious that at least in the show his target is the thrown itself. If you think back to GOT, LF may have actually supported Neds claim to the thrown if he thought he could work from that position, whisper in ears until he wed Lysa just like he did with the Lannisters in power. I don't think LF gives a damn how it go's down, but he knew the Vale was his in the whole time.

Littlefinger told Sansa that Harrenhall is cursed but that does not mean he believes it. I would be surprised if Littlefinger actually belives in curses.

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That's one of the best LF theories I've seen on here. A few questions though: what do you think his intended endgame is, if not the Iron Throne? Also, what about Edmure? LF apparently never forgave him for acting as Brandon's squire, and he is the true Lord of Riverrun, which would cause problems vis a vis installing Sansa as a puppet. Although warring against the Lannisters could be detrimental to his health somewhat....

Also: The Hound doing Hound things, Daario doing Daario things. Brilliant.

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That's one of the best LF theories I've seen on here. A few questions though: what do you think his intended endgame is, if not the Iron Throne? Also, what about Edmure? LF apparently never forgave him for acting as Brandon's squire, and he is the true Lord of Riverrun, which would cause problems vis a vis installing Sansa as a puppet. Although warring against the Lannisters could be detrimental to his health somewhat....

Yes, but he makes it quite clear that he's just waiting for Cersei to self-destruct, and is actually quite put out when she does this faster than he accounted for.

I believe that because of this, whatever he's planning is in direct conflict with the Lannisters, whether it be taking the throne, helping the Targs (wouldn't that be hilarious, him and Varys both?), or aligning himself with the North (unlikely).

Would the Lannisters be upset if he started a Frey take-down? I'm not sure they'd even care...

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Without really knowing LF's ultimate goals, it's really hard to speculate. I actually had the opposite impression: LF allies with the Freys. This is mainly a feeling I have about their similarities: LF as a member of a lower house who has come into great power through his own actions and effort. He's pretty contemptuous of a lot of the nobility. Sounds like Walder Frey? I've also never entirely bought into the idea that LF's childhood crush on Cat is motivating all of his actions now. It sort of fits into whatever role he might have had getting rid of Ned and ascending the social ladder, but absent is really any kind of protection for Cat herself. A man as well connected as LF would surely have either known or suspected the Red Wedding, and found some way to divert Cat from attending.

LF's m.o. is to get other parties fighting each other- it's harder for me to see him risking "his" army (the Vale is as close to actual ruling as he's come). If he really wanted the Freys out of commission, it would be much more likely that he'd engineer a split between the Iron Throne and the Freys, or find someone else he can get to take them out. I'm not sure what there will even be to fight once old Walder kicks off- you get the feeling he is the only glue holding that family together, and they will be fighting each other for the scraps of his empire once he dies.

What I'd REALLY like to see, although I'm not sure how this would be engineered by GRRM, would be unCat somehow taking Harrenhall, and/or capturing LF. She's single now! And I can't imagine a better person to rule Harrenhall than unCat (except maybe Theon).

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It really appears that a lot of LF's actions are aimed at revenge against all those who have wronged him (betraying Ned Stark due to Brandon and subsequently Ned stealing the woman he loved, taking Sansa under his wing and stating constantly that she looks so much like her mother, killing Lysa Tully as a point of revenge toward Hoster Tully) just to name a few.

While I think that LF has a bigger scheme planned than just having the Vale, I also think that his obsession with Catelyn (and by extension Sansa now) will ultimately be his downfall,.

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I don't hink LF wants anything to do with Harrenhal....not because it's cursed....but becasue it's so monstrously big....it would cost too much to protect it ...garrison ...feed and he'd have to get an army of not so loayal vassals to keep harrenhal operational....it's just not a very sound castle to keep economically or strategically....

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I think Dany is heading to Westeros via the Vale. My guess is conveniently showing up with Tyrion right before Alayne marries HtH. LF is gonna fly i think, although maybe not until DoS. If he escapes he will probably go Frey hunting and then be killed by UnCat

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Everything sounds pretty legit. However, you are forgetting that in the upcoming book Sansa's character is gonna undergo some tremendous, drastic changes. Since Littlefinger and Sansa's arcs are so intertwined by now, they are quite dependent on each other. Even if she marries Harry (which she is strongly against), the marriage will not be consummated; Harry will probably have to die. Sansa will start to rebel against Baelish and his grip on her will slowly begin to weaken. Consequently, Sansa's own desires will play a role in what Petyr does. Overall, whatever he does, Littlefinger will be kiled by the last page of the book. I reckon he puts Sansa in a very good position of power and then she poisons him with lemon cake.

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I think Dany is heading to Westeros via the Vale. My guess is conveniently showing up with Tyrion right before Alayne marries HtH. LF is gonna fly i think, although maybe not until DoS. If he escapes he will probably go Frey hunting and then be killed by UnCat

Love this.

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Love this.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/85294-vulture-interview-hints-at-controversial-sansa-chapter-in-twow/

Have you read this thread, it completely blew me away. I found it very interesting. I'm also very aware of Sansa's apparent controversy upcoming. I strongly respect its going to be about her becoming a player in the Game of Thrones. If it is a sexual one I believe it will be Tyrion and not LF she will go to willingly.

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http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/85294-vulture-interview-hints-at-controversial-sansa-chapter-in-twow/

Have you read this thread, it completely blew me away. I found it very interesting. I'm also very aware of Sansa's apparent controversy upcoming. I strongly respect its going to be about her becoming a player in the Game of Thrones. If it is a sexual one I believe it will be Tyrion and not LF she will go to willingly.

Yes, I saw that. Actually, Sansa's one of my favourite characters to read, because she is so frustrating. I love characters that elicit strong emotion. I had guessed that she marries HtH, which would be controversial as she would be a polygamist. Who knows.

As for LF, I don't suppose any of us actually know his endgame. I, for one, didn't see it coming that he had Lysa poison Jon Arryn. Now that we know this, we can infer that he wants to create as much chaos as possible in order to make a power grab, right?

If his motive were purely his love for Cat, then he wouldn't have anything left to play for, seeing as he thinks she's dead. Well, you know what I mean.

If his motive is to have power simply for the sake of power, it seems kind of one-dimensional to me. We know GRRM doesn't do 1-D characters, and LF is pretty colourful at the moment.

I think he's trying to align himself with the Targs. If Varys knew of Dany's exploits, LF knew of them too. And nothing says power like dragons. I agree that he will make the Vale available to Dany as an entryway to Westeros (remember, he said he'd only need the Vale for a year to accomplish what he wanted) but that when this happens, he'll get a surprise if Tyrion is with her :D

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This is a great thread, and good ideas all around. I don't see Littlefinger going for the Iron Throne himself-he's usually shown a very good sense of his own limits in terms of lack of social prestige, being held in contempt by the great lords as a coin-counter and pimp, etc. My guess is that his Cat/Sansa fetish will undo him in the end, but I think that the endgame he's hoping for is something like this: keep undermining whichever faction or great House is looking like it's strong enough to restore stability, until he's maneuvered his chosen pawns into place as either Kings on the Iron Throne or rulers of an acceptably large portion of the previously-united kingdom. A guy like LF thrives on controllable chaos.

OR, maybe, he has some sort of backdoor deal with the Iron Bank afoot? He was on good enough terms with them to secure all those loans, and handily absented himself from King's Landing and his position as Master of Coin before the hammer really fell. The Eyrie would be a good beach head for any influx of IB mercenaries, given its position and virtually impregnable defenses vis-a-vis the rest of Westeros. This leads me to think that he might fall in with the Targaryen faction once/if he gets wind of it.

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Thanks for the kind words all! :drunk:

@steely94 i'm not entirely convinced LF *has* an endgame, e.g. one central goal. What strikes me about him more than any other character is how flexible he is at adapting to new situations, which is why i believe he's so dangerous (and why varys thinks he's so dangerous). For example, i don't think he could've foreseen tyrion killing tywin (seemingly engineered by varys), who granted LF lordship/Harrenhal, nor the dissolution of the Lannister/Tyrell alliance that he helped bring together, but it doesn't seem to have effected him in the way you'd imagine if in fact they were central to his plans. i agree with @No One Braavos that power for power's sake, or to become the one ring who ruled them all feels too one-dimensional for such a subtle and complex character.

re: Edmure, he's in the Rock. Impregnable. I don't think the Lannisters will be getting Castamere'd (though it would be poetic justice) and i don't think LF is banking on Harry and the Vale winning so indisputedly that they'll be challenging the Iron Throne. He's using them in such a way that he won't take explicit blame for any of their actions as far as whoever sits the IT is concerned.

re: The Vulture article about the "controversial" Sansa chapter, my theory (total speculation) is that she'll kill Sweet Robin, either accidentally, or be manipulated (somehow) by LF into doing it. Obviously GRRM has no qualms putting her through emotional distress, but my sincere hope (after what Joffrey did to her/threatened her with) is that he's not referring to sexual abuse. Also, my personal belief is that GRRM is fully aware of what he's doing to us ( :bang: ) everytime he teases a plot point like that, and that he's messing with our expectations (e.g. he knows we'll all think it has something to with LF taking advantage of Sansa, and he's going in a totally different direction.

re: Blackfish, the more i think of him as a potential LF ally, the more it feels right. The detail about how he was the one Cat, Lysa, AND LF ran to with their problems when he was younger, his strong link btw the Vale and the Riverlands, his relationships with the Vale lords LF is jousting with, how they both nursed grievances against Hoster, how they're both bachelors...ok maybe not that last one.

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I've also never entirely bought into the idea that LF's childhood crush on Cat is motivating all of his actions now. It sort of fits into whatever role he might have had getting rid of Ned and ascending the social ladder, but absent is really any kind of protection for Cat herself. A man as well connected as LF would surely have either known or suspected the Red Wedding, and found some way to divert Cat from attending.

Well, iirc, Cat was supposed to not be killed in the Red Wedding, but she couldn't be taken hostage after she killed butterbumps or whatever the frey halfwit was called
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What I'd REALLY like to see, although I'm not sure how this would be engineered by GRRM, would be unCat somehow taking Harrenhall, and/or capturing LF. She's single now! And I can't imagine a better person to rule Harrenhall than unCat (except maybe Theon).

Obviously Arya would be the greatest Lord of Harrenhal
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