Littlefinger's arc in Winds of Winter: westword bound!

[tbc]

The Marches and Marcher Lords all belong to the Stormlands. They have not mustered yet, as Lord Swann did not call his banners, but sent his sons to war. With Beric Dondarrion dead, there is no known person to muster the house. Bryce Carron is dead and his lands and titles have been given to Ser Phillip Foote, however his bastard brother has claimed the house. Aside from a few men here and there, the Crownlands have not mustered in force since they fought for Rhaegar on the Trident.

To me LF is the ultimate example in self-preservation. I have not see enough to make me think he will compromise himself for Sansa if it really came down to it. He saved Sansa, in part due to her tremendous value (ties to the North, Riverlands, and Vale). I just wonder if it came down to him or Sansa, would LF choose Sansa?

Thanks for the clarification. Presumably, therefore, if the Crownlands take Aegon seriously, they can muster significant men quite quickly? Ditto the Marcher Lords?

I don't think that LF would actively save Sansa over himself tbh. I just think she's the one factor in his plans whose loyalty and goodwill he hasn't considered losing, and the one thing which will make him act irrationally and make bad choices. GRRM's characters aren't two dimensional machines, and LF therefore isn't the complete and total Machiavel he can be seen as. His greatest emotional attachment was to Cat, and is now to Sansa: we've seen repeatedly in the novels that love makes characters do spectacularly stupid things.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Thanks for the clarification. Presumably, therefore, if the Crownlands take Aegon seriously, they can muster significant men quite quickly? Ditto the Marcher Lords?

I don't think that LF would actively save Sansa over himself tbh. I just think she's the one factor in his plans whose loyalty and goodwill he hasn't considered losing, and the one thing which will make him act irrationally and make bad choices. GRRM's characters aren't two dimensional machines, and LF therefore isn't the complete and total Machiavel he can be seen as. His greatest emotional attachment was to Cat, and is now to Sansa: we've seen repeatedly in the novels that love makes characters do spectacularly stupid things.

1. Yes and yes. The Marcher Lords in my estimation has 10,000 to 12,000 men. The Crownlands should be able to muster at least 20,000.

2. Sansa and LF is one of the most important relationships in my estimation. I really want to see if LF loves her or is he just hung up on Cat.

[honeyed chicken]

I have some quibbles with the first part of your OP, but nothing major, so I'll ignore them.

D) The Frays killed Cat. Obvious, but bears repeating

This I wholeheartedly agree with - whether LF is still in love w/Cat or Sansa has become Cat's substitute in his heart & mind, symbolically, it is important that the Frey's murdered Cat and LF won't forget that.

E) Don't know if you noticed, but LF likes his revenge on big Lords who wronged him and none wronged him bigger than Hoster

I'm puzzled. With Hoster dead and Riverrun in Frey hands where is the revenge? If he retakes Riverrun and puts Sansa inncharge - he's restoring the place to Hoster's family - the opposite of revenge.

F) Obligatory EVIL MASTER PLAN note: I’ve seen some form of “LF does it for the game,” “LF is buying/bribing his way to the top,” etc etc in most of his threads but why would he even care to be king? Seems like a dangerous position and LF isn’t a man to put a bulls-eye on his back. I'm not convinced any of his actions to date have even brought him closer to the throne (he seems to kill off or abandon powerful friends/allies as easily as he makes them). Riverrun (with Sansa) seems a far more realistic ambition

This is my main point of disagreement with you.

Just about everything we see LF do in the first 3 books is aimed at destabilizing the throne and getting rid of players who may be threats.

Why take that risk if your ultimate goal is Riverrun, or whatever?

Why did he make 3 attempts to get rid of Tyrion (Lysa's letter to cat claiming Lannisters murdered Jon Arryn has LFs fingerprints on it imo; the lie about the knife sent to kill Bran belonging to Tyrion nearly got him; and the final one at the PW with the poison in Sansa's hairnet did the job)? He saw that Tyrion was shrewd & clever like himself and worked to remove him.

The TV show portrays Varys & LF at loggerheads, but in the books they appear to collaborate. The death of Tywin (which Varys facilitated, and later of Kevan, whom he murdered) was something LF cheered for as witnessed by his statement to Sansa in ADWD (I think) that Cersei was messing up even faster than he expected.

If he's not interested in the IT, again, why does he care? Why does he work so hard to create chaos in KL?

He's working threads that may give him control of everything north of KL (I would predict LF will also be working to incite war between Tyrell and Martell - which shouldn't be hard).

I also don't see him working for revenge as much as advantage. Sure he did nothing to stop Ned getting beheaded, but as we know that put the Lannisters in a bad position in the war against the Starks. Revenge on Ned for marrying the woman he once loved, he may have gotten as a bonus, but again, the big gain he got was chaos.

G) Obligatory Blackfish note: Isn't he the perfect LF ally in this scenario? LF offers him 1) an army to take back the Riverlands 2) a Tully in Riverrun (Sansa, himself or TBD), 3) a chance for vengeance against the Frays/Lannisters and the Boltons (once Harry marches north), 4) legitimacy/a pardon from the crown with his influence in KL and (nominal) position as Lord Protector of the Vale. meanwhile LF gets back 1) a war leader all the Vale Lords know and trust and 2) THE rallying point for Tully loyalists. Seems more probable than BF abandoning Tully lands to off Fray kids in the stables..

Who better to take out the traitorous Frays than the biggest backstabber of them all?

You may be right.

Blackfish does not have any allies to turn to at this point.

But if I were LF, I'd have Blackfish quietly killed. Blackfish is the kind a shrewd, capable man that sees through an operator like LF and is going to cut him to bits at the first opportunity. LF tends to avoid that type of player.

I think at some point in GOT it is stated that the Vale has 20,000 swords to offer.

I've said multiple times the Freys are toast - they just don't know it yet. LF is a big reason why. See my post number 242 of this thread:

http://asoiaf.wester...y/page__st__240

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I have some quibbles with the first part of your OP, but nothing major, so I'll ignore them.

This I wholeheartedly agree with - whether LF is still in love w/Cat or Sansa has become Cat's substitute in his heart & mind, symbolically, it is important that the Frey's murdered Cat and LF won't forget that.

I'm puzzled. With Hoster dead and Riverrun in Frey hands where is the revenge? If he retakes Riverrun and puts Sansa inncharge - he's restoring the place to Hoster's family - the opposite of revenge.

This is my main point of disagreement with you.

Just about everything we see LF do in the first 3 books is aimed at destabilizing the throne and getting rid of players who may be threats.

Why take that risk if your ultimate goal is Riverrun, or whatever?

Why did he make 3 attempts to get rid of Tyrion (Lysa's letter to cat claiming Lannisters murdered Jon Arryn has LFs fingerprints on it imo; the lie about the knife sent to kill Bran belonging to Tyrion nearly got him; and the final one at the PW with the poison in Sansa's hairnet did the job)? He saw that Tyrion was shrewd & clever like himself and worked to remove him.

The TV show portrays Varys & LF at loggerheads, but in the books they appear to collaborate. The death of Tywin (which Varys facilitated, and later of Kevan, whom he murdered) was something LF cheered for as witnessed by his statement to Sansa in ADWD (I think) that Cersei was messing up even faster than he expected.

If he's not interested in the IT, again, why does he care? Why does he work so hard to create chaos in KL?

He's working threads that may give him control of everything north of KL (I would predict LF will also be working to incite war between Tyrell and Martell - which shouldn't be hard).

I also don't see him working for revenge as much as advantage. Sure he did nothing to stop Ned getting beheaded, but as we know that put the Lannisters in a bad position in the war against the Starks. Revenge on Ned for marrying the woman he once loved, he may have gotten as a bonus, but again, the big gain he got was chaos.

You may be right.

Blackfish does not have any allies to turn to at this point.

But if I were LF, I'd have Blackfish quietly killed. Blackfish is the kind a shrewd, capable man that sees through an operator like LF and is going to cut him to bits at the first opportunity. LF tends to avoid that type of player.

I think at some point in GOT it is stated that the Vale has 20,000 swords to offer.

I've said multiple times the Freys are toast - they just don't know it yet. LF is a big reason why. See my post number 242 of this thread:

http://asoiaf.wester...y/page__st__240

The Blackfish had plenty of options. He can turn to the Vale lords, gain marginal help from the river lords, or go to the Neck and meet up with the remains of Robb's host and use them to attack the Twins. Better options than Littlefinger. Both of them can ill afford to help the other.

[honeyed chicken]

The Blackfish had plenty of options. He can turn to the Vale lords, gain marginal help from the river lords, or go to the Neck and meet up with the remains of Robb's host and use them to attack the Twins. Better options than Littlefinger. Both of them can ill afford to help the other.

That's not true.

The rivelords are all under Lannister control now and Jamie wants the Blackfish turned in.

He's on the run.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

That's not true.

The rivelords are all under Lannister control now and Jamie wants the Blackfish turned in.

He's on the run.

The riverlords might have bent the knee, but who is to say that they wouldn't help him?

[Petyr Patter]

First off I do think that LF has a plan. He planned to get a lordship, Harrenhal, then he planned to marry Lysa, then what... Would he really stop there and just hope Daenerys, Myrcella or Margery will marry him for the Vale? Of course I'm assuming he wants the crown. Lucky for him Mya Stone who after Cersei's children could be named queen. His plan maybe to be the last one standing and then get Mya crowned and in effect himself too. LF said once you know what people want you know what motivates them and you can control them. Sansa wants a brave shinning Knight and he's giving her one. I think she will be grateful and will be on team Littlefinger, but for how long I have no idea. If I had to guess I think LF will wait til the betrothal between Alanye and Harry is official and then will probably marry Mya. Then wait for the right time to strike most likely when the Tyrells and Lannisters have effectively destroyed each other and the only major player left is Aegon backed by Varys.

Crowning Mya Stone queen as Robert's heir is very problematic. While it's an "open secret" she is his bastard, he never formally acknowledged her like he did Edric Storm, who is both male and still alive. Plus, Robert still has two "true born" children who would inherit before his bastards. However, if they aren't "true born," then frankly they had no right to attain Stannis who would then be the legal heir. Even, then she wouldn't be in the line of sucession unless a king "legitimized" her first. Some distant cousin of Robert's would probably be dug up first. Ultimately, it would come down to swords, but better legal cover gives more swords.

Then, of course, is her personality. She is a very independent woman, and loyal to the Erie where she spent her entire life. Is she going to be interested in being a Queen in King's Landing and a pawn to a known scum back like Littlefinger?

[Ser Carson]

Crowning Mya Stone queen as Robert's heir is very problematic. While it's an "open secret" she is his bastard, he never formally acknowledged her like he did Edric Storm, who is both male and still alive. Plus, Robert still has two "true born" children who would inherit before his bastards. However, if they aren't "true born," then frankly they had no right to attain Stannis who would then be the legal heir. Even, then she wouldn't be in the line of sucession unless a king "legitimized" her first. Some distant cousin of Robert's would probably be dug up first. Ultimately, it would come down to swords, but better legal cover gives more swords.

Then, of course, is her personality. She is a very independent woman, and loyal to the Erie where she spent her entire life. Is she going to be interested in being a Queen in King's Landing and a pawn to a known scum back like Littlefinger?

I agree there are issues, but I don't see any other way for Littlefinger to get a claim to the throne.

Edric Storm is gone and no one knows where he is, but yes he is a problem.

I think Tommen and Myrcella will die at some point because I believe Cersei's prophecy will come true, so they wouldn't be a problem. Plus I believe Littlefinger wouldn't make move until they were gone anyway.

Stannis will die at some point. Battle of Winterfell (probably not) or against the Others (Maybe he marches south but I doubt it). If there is some estranged cousin I feel like Mya who the Vale would support would have a better claim.

Legitimization could happen... maybe by the High Septon or maybe by some King for the support of the Vale... I don't know.

As far as her personality I don't know much about it. Littlefinger being a scumbag, yes he is, but how would she know it who would tell her that? Sansa after being married to Harry would sing his praises. The Lords of the Vale who he paid off wouldn't say anything and he would be the guy who saved Sansa and avenged Ned by killing Joffrey. The truth is relative.

I know it is crackpot theory, but I can't imagine Littlefinger would go through all this trouble and scheming with no plan of actually getting on the throne. Would Sansa really a have better claim? I don't think so. Also I don't see how Littlefinger could pull off marrying Sansa and not alienate all of the Vale. Maybe his plan is to marry someone with a better claim once he is the only with any army left, but that seems like a risky plan. If there was one noble born lord from any major house left they would marry onto the throne before him. Forcing his way onto the throne seems less likely because how would he become leader of big enough army the Vale and Riverlands is not enough at least won't be unless there is whole lot of death which could happen with starvation, dragons, and white walkers coming. I just don't think its good plan, but guess no one said Littlefinger had to have a good plan. I just think he would.

I could easily be wrong, but I think it would be a twist. Everyone thinks Sansa will take him out, but has he really given her any real cause to want to take him out yet, maybe he will eventual and that leads the way to the King who will sit the throne at the end, but I think someone will say King Petyr at one point in the books, but hey who knows. I just I can;t wait to find out.

[Sansa Arryn]

I agree very much with this theory.

[Petyr Patter]

I agree there are issues, but I don't see any other way for Littlefinger to get a claim to the throne.

I do. Mya Stone is a real stretch as a candidate for the Iron Throne. A famous lord with strong alliances,a good reputation, and a significant might be able to marry her and use it as a paper thin legal cover to hold the throne. This just isn't Littlefinger.

Or, he could just marry Cersei. Come now, it isn't nearly as big of a stretch as Mya Stone (who I think is fine as a character, but not as a candidate). Cersei's power is at an all time low, and she's looking for ways to reassert herself. A husband who is Lord Paramount of the Riverland and Lord Protector of the Vale would be suitable, especially considering how well he's served House Lannister in the past... as far as Cersei knows. Plus, he's to low born to ever be a threat... right? Cersei has to bad habit of thinking people who owe her bigtime are going to be extra loyal. Just recall Aurane Waters.

I could easily be wrong, but I think it would be a twist. Everyone thinks Sansa will take him out, but has he really given her any real cause to want to take him out yet, maybe he will eventual and that leads the way to the King who will sit the throne at the end, but I think someone will say King Petyr at one point in the books, but hey who knows. I just I can;t wait to find out.

While I don't know how Sansa and Littlefinger's time together ends, let me point out that Sansa has plenty of reasons to dislike him. Starting with the fact he framed her for regicide. He could have smuggled her out a month before the royal wedding to remove any doubt. Yet no, he had her wear the murder weapon to the feast, and did everything to make sure her husband looked guilty. Sure enough, she's now wanted for that murder, something that will probably haunt her for the rest of her life. "Sansa Strangler." Combine that with forced kisses and touching... yeah she has reason to hate the guy. Not sure she has it in her, yet, to outright kill him. Her personality just isn't made for murder.

I like to believe she manages to uncover an inconvenient truth, reveal it the right people, and watch his power (and eventually his life) flee.

[Ser Carson]

Cersei is overly trusting, but she doesn't throw marriage around she would never marry him, she's too prideful to marry below her station... She probably won't remarry at all, but I guess she could. She might fuck him, but after everything shes been through I doubt it. Plus I feel like the Vale and especially Sansa hates the Lannister's and he undercut his own strength by joining with them. Also, the Lannisters are on their way down and like we have seen from Tywin you never pick the losing side. Plus I don't think Littlefinger makes a move until Cersei's children are dead when their gone what does she have. She has also been disgraced in front of everyone in KL and she doesn't have claim to the throne herself. Gambling on Cersei's marriage is a bad bet to plan on because how would he become King by doing that and what are the odds? I think Mya makes more sense for actually winning the throne not just being regent or warden of the west.

Assuming the distraction of Joffrey wasn't required to get her out then she could resent him for not getting out of Kings Landing earlier.

She didn't hate Tyrion, but she still didn't want to be married to him and is confused whether he was being nice to her or just play another Lannister trick on her.

The "Sansa Strangler" sticking with her whole life, I never thought of that. Maybe it would, but I have feeling Littlefinger would take credit for to rally against the Lannisters or he could point more blame on Margery which is a much juicier tale. Plus I'm not sure Sansa is aware or her reputation being tainted right now. Also I'm pretty sure deep down she's glad Joffrey's dead, but I'm not sure.

These are good points, but and they may add up with his creepiness and some of is other actions like killing Dontos or the singer(even though he did try and rape her, which btw LF stopped), but right now I think he's net postive with her especially after Marrying to Harry.

I thought killing her Aunt would be her biggest grievance, but and here comes another crackpot theory, I think Littlefinger kissed Sansa trying to get Lysa jealous because she had to die sometime and the only way Sansa would go along with it (and he needed a witness) was getting Lysa crazy Jealous so she almost throw Sansa out. I think Littlefinger is too smart to kiss Sansa where everyone in the Vale could see him do it unless for a reason, Lysa had to go.

Another theory is the first time we see Mya we hear how she is in Love and getting married, Catelyn doubts it, but then we find out he married someone else who wasn't a bastard. Could Littlefinger be behind this?!?!?! He managed to get his bastard daughter married to Harry could he have kept Mya from being married because she was his ticket to the throne?

One thing we know about Littlefinger is he likes to play the long game and marrying Mya is the long game. I don't think Littlefinger will be King in the end, but everyone can't call him this great player and then say he doesn't have a plan. I hate him for what he did to Ned, but I also think he is an intriguing character who right now is the most mysterious character in the books at least in my opinion, so whatever he does I don't think were supposed to see coming.

[FC_Lymond]

Maybe there will be parallels between Sansa/Harry/LF and Cersei/Robert/Jaime. Not exact, but basically a marriage with a useless husband to the wife who has a secret lover on the side.

Sansa marries Harry under duress (as Alayne). Harry is too drunk or drugged by LF on wedding night. She loses her maidenhood to LF on wedding night. The controversy is that she doesn't mind as much as readers would want...

Harry spends marriage drinking, whoring, fighting wars while his heirs are being made by Sansa and LF.

[Petyr Patter]

I feel like we are having a real discussion! Both arguing our own points, while acknowledging the others.

Cersei is overly trusting, but she doesn't throw marriage around she would never marry him, she's too prideful to marry below her station... She probably won't remarry at all, but I guess she could. She might fuck him, but after everything shes been through I doubt it. Plus I feel like the Vale and especially Sansa hates the Lannister's and he undercut his own strength by joining with them. Also, the Lannisters are on their way down and like we have seen from Tywin you never pick the losing side. Plus I don't think Littlefinger makes a move until Cersei's children are dead when their gone what does she have. She has also been disgraced in front of everyone in KL and she doesn't have claim to the throne herself. Gambling on Cersei's marriage is a bad bet to plan on because how would he become King by doing that and what are the odds? I think Mya makes more sense for actually winning the throne not just being regent or warden of the west.

Cersei can rationalize anything, and in her mind everybody is below her station. What she really doesn't want is a threat to her "power," which is why she surrounded herself with yesmen and the otherwise incompetent on the small council. That is why she'll see Littlefinger as a way to hold on to power, because he combines a low birth with a high station and a reputation for serving House Lannister as well as he serves himself. Because otherwise, assuming she wins her trial, she will almost certainly be sent back to Casterly Rock, while her children stay in King's Landing. As for Littlefinger, he'll never get another opportunity like this again, to be that close and in command of the King's Landing power structure. He has no reason to believe Tommen and Myrcella are just going to die, and both are pretty well protected. Its would be a challenge to salvage to sinking SS. Cersei, but he's never shied away from such an effort for such a reward.

As for the Vale and Sansa hating Lannsiters, I'd say the Vale and Sansa have just as many reasons to hate Littlefinger. He isn't trying to win them over so he can be Lord of the Vale, he's doing it as a means to bigger end, which is what he always does.

Assuming the distraction of Joffrey wasn't required to get her out then she could resent him for not getting out of Kings Landing earlier.

She didn't hate Tyrion, but she still didn't want to be married to him and is confused whether he was being nice to her or just play another Lannister trick on her.

The "Sansa Strangler" sticking with her whole life, I never thought of that. Maybe it would, but I have feeling Littlefinger would take credit for to rally against the Lannisters or he could point more blame on Margery which is a much juicier tale. Plus I'm not sure Sansa is aware or her reputation being tainted right now. Also I'm pretty sure deep down she's glad Joffrey's dead, but I'm not sure.

These are good points, but and they may add up with his creepiness and some of is other actions like killing Dontos or the singer(even though he did try and rape her, which btw LF stopped), but right now I think he's net postive with her especially after Marrying to Harry.

The distraction both made it easier and harder to escape. It meant the guards were immediately looking for a murderer, and could have seized Sansa right away. As it was, no one thought to do it until she had time to flee. However, her fleeing pretty much confirmed her guilt in the minds of many. Here's the thing, Littlefinger keeps giving her excuses for why he acts the way he does, and insists he cares about her as she's Cat's daughter. Sure, these excuses which might sound good at first, but they really do not survive under scrutiny. And Sansa is being taught to scrutinize, and ultimately everything Littlefinger does to help her, he really does to help himself.

On a similar note, Sansa did not want to "escape King's Landing," she wanted to "escape her prison." Littlefinger effectively has imprisoned her, simply trading one prison for another, all the while telling her thankful she should be. She might have had a loveless marriage with Tyrion, but she

I thought killing her Aunt would be her biggest grievance, but and here comes another crackpot theory, I think Littlefinger kissed Sansa trying to get Lysa jealous because she had to die sometime and the only way Sansa would go along with it (and he needed a witness) was getting Lysa crazy Jealous so she almost throw Sansa out. I think Littlefinger is too smart to kiss Sansa where everyone in the Vale could see him do it unless for a reason, Lysa had to go.

I think it was Catelyn who said that while Littlefinger could be clever, he lacked wisdom. He didn't need an excuse to kill Lysa, he could have done that at night with a pillow and still blame the bard. I think he really thought no one was watching and made his "move." It quickly escalated and so it forced him to kill Lysa sooner than he thought prudent, though boy was the set up good. Only one wtiness who the victim just threatened to kill, and an scapegoat nobody liked right nearby. Littlefinger created a dangerous situation, and then quickly thought his way out of it. He could not know exactly how Lysa would react. Maybe, she would just banish Sansa. Maybe she would write a letter to King's Landing letting Cersei know where Sansa is. Or, maybe she would kill her to quickly for Littlefginer to intervene. To many variables. I think Littlefinger honestly thought Sansa might actually return his affection, and so he made his move without thinkingthough te consequences.

Another theory is the first time we see Mya we hear how she is in Love and getting married, Catelyn doubts it, but then we find out he married someone else who wasn't a bastard. Could Littlefinger be behind this?!?!?! He managed to get his bastard daughter married to Harry could he have kept Mya from being married because she was his ticket to the throne?

One thing we know about Littlefinger is he likes to play the long game and marrying Mya is the long game. I don't think Littlefinger will be King in the end, but everyone can't call him this great player and then say he doesn't have a plan. I hate him for what he did to Ned, but I also think he is an intriguing character who right now is the most mysterious character in the books at least in my opinion, so whatever he does I don't think were supposed to see coming.

I would not describe Littlefinger as a "long game" player, per se. Varys and Doran play the long game. They have a big ultimate goal and map a path to reach that goal and try to keep that path open. Littlefinger is more of an opportunist. Admittedly, he likes to create his own opportunities, and is moving his "pieces" into places of influence where they can be activated when needed. However, he really doesn't have a set long term goal, just keep taking an advantage of opportunities as they present themselves.

He might very well have shutdown the marriage, but apparently Mya's love interest was a lord whose father insisted he marry another lord's daughter.

I would repeat again, Mya isn't a "ticket" to anywhere, except maybe a guide up and down the montain. She is at the very best a thin veneer of legality that will require armies and alliances to enforce.

[Ser Carson]

I agree we don't really know what's going on in Cersei's head right now because last we saw of her was from Kevan's POV. Jamie did think pretty highly of Littlefinger so there is a chance that Cersei would too. The main problem is Cersei would have to find out about Sansa eventually especially if he married her and I can't see that ending well. I always said Mya was a crackpot theory and maybe he wants to marry someone else maybe someone from the reach (Tyrell, Tarly, Redwyne, Hightower...) and use reach power to claim the throne.

Lysa getting killed like you said worked out perfectly maybe that was just chance and Littlefinger saw it and took advantage. I kind like the theory that Littlefinger was just playing everyone up there into that situation, but it is far fetched that he could handle a situation that volatile.

Littlefinger is definitely using Sansa and manipulating her. I think he is trying to win her to his side by marrying her to a knight and heir. Of course we know little about him now he could be a jerk or not, but I think Sansa will still be grateful and will be more like Margery with Joffrey/Tommen with him than she was originally with Joffrey.

I think most of the lords would be more in favor of Littlefinger than they would the Lannisters. Even Royce would have to commend him on saving Sansa and would approve of the match for Harry and Royce is really the key to the Vale for Littlefinger. Sansa may just be a means to getting Royce on his side. If he married Cersei then I can;t see Royce being happy and that's a problem no matter what for Littlefinger.

Doran and Varys are definietly the longest term players without doubt, but I think Littlefinger planned to be right where he is Lord protector of the Vale. I think that's why he was so excited when Tyrion offered him Harrenhal to marry Myrcella to Prince Robyn. He could have of greatly sped up the process. I do think Littlefiner always wanted to sneak Sansa out (Ser Dontos approached her early on) and if he could done it with Myrcella all the better. So maybe Mya doesn't play into it, but it be hard for me to believe him planing on killing Harry and then getting with Sansa and no one raising a fuse.

A thin veneer of legality is why Robert became King and not Ned or Jon Arryn who would have been better suited. So, I'm just saying everything equal as far armies go a small claim is better then none.

I'm enjoying the real discussion too Petyr Patter even if you are blowing holes in my Mya theory. I'm thinking its more crackpot after every post, but Cersei is even more crack pot haha!

[ejhawman]

Interesting theory. LF does have reason to go west, and has admitted he only needs the Vale for a year. He has to marry Sansa off to HtH, but cannot do so too soon; he has to wait on Cersei's deconstruction, which may be delayed by her victory in her upcoming trial. He will need to insulate himself against charges of conspiracy in Joffrey's death; this will be easier once the Lannisters are destroyed. He doesn't know that Tommen is likely to die soon, but once the Lannisters no longer sit the IT his way is clearer than he expected.

Siding with Stannis is obviously out; I got the feeling LF is one of the people he wants to clean uot of higher politics in the realm. Here Sansa is further use to him, as right now Stannis' northern forces rally around him to rescue Arya, the apparent last survivor of the Starks; once Sansa turns up alive, they have an alternative, and while in principle they could part politely, neither they nor Stannis have the character to do so. Sansa's coming out would trigger further fires in the North.

He may indeed be aligning himself with fAegon, though I would expect he has done some research of his own and may know whether fAegon is real or not. What matters is that fAegon is potentially useful to him, but he would need to stomach a temporary alliance with Varys. If he can, he has a replacement king to protect him, and can bring forth Sansa. With proper service to the new king, he can be named lord of another powerful realm (Casterly Rock?)

In the meantime he can occupy himself assisting in the downfall of the Freys. He may be the one to take down the Lord Walder; he can find ways to penetrate the Twins, possibly smuggle some BwB men in to lay the blame on them.

Basically, the OP timeline is a good option, but there are variations.

[Colonel Green]

I think most of the lords would be more in favor of Littlefinger than they would the Lannisters. Even Royce would have to commend him on saving Sansa and would approve of the match for Harry and Royce is really the key to the Vale for Littlefinger. Sansa may just be a means to getting Royce on his side.

One of the funny things about Littlefinger's plan (which I don't think will actually get as far along as he outlines at the end of AFFC) is that Littlefinger ultimately intends to give Bronze Yohn basically everything he wants (war with the Lannisters, an alliance with the remnants of the Stark-Tully clan), albeit still by deceiving him about a bunch of stuff.

[pdt1028]

Please correct me if I am wrong, but why is everyone so sure that LF will be able to stay in the Vale long enough to accomplish anything?

At the council meeting where Cersei created the problems with the IB, the only other thing she actually did was to give the Lords Declarant permission to toss LF out of the vale on his ass, providing they didn’t kill him doing it. Will LF actually be able to buy enough of the vale lords to be able to keep his place long enough for his plans to take shape?

So if LF gets tossed, he will have nothing but an empty title and a ruined castle

I think there would be a certain justice in having him stumble across LS and her band of merry men, and let him see just what he has done to the only woman he ever ‘loved’. He should really see the result of all his hard work, shouldn’t he?

And if Sansa is forced to go with him, possibly the ‘controversial’ issue is that she kills UnCat to release her.

Question: If you kill a family member who is already dead, are you a kinslayer?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Please correct me if I am wrong, but why is everyone so sure that LF will be able to stay in the Vale long enough to accomplish anything?

At the council meeting where Cersei created the problems with the IB, the only other thing she actually did was to give the Lords Declarant permission to toss LF out of the vale on his ass, providing they didn’t kill him doing it. Will LF actually be able to buy enough of the vale lords to be able to keep his place long enough for his plans to take shape?

So if LF gets tossed, he will have nothing but an empty title and a ruined castle

I think there would be a certain justice in having him stumble across LS and her band of merry men, and let him see just what he has done to the only woman he ever ‘loved’. He should really see the result of all his hard work, shouldn’t he?

And if Sansa is forced to go with him, possibly the ‘controversial’ issue is that she kills UnCat to release her.

Question: If you kill a family member who is already dead, are you a kinslayer?

You're forgetting the part in the book where LF played the Lords Declarant like a fiddle...with the help of Lyn Corbray of course. Since then he has placated most of them with bribes and other favors.

Only Bronze Yohnze Royce stands in his way. As powerful as lord Royce is, he won't be able to remove LF alone. He needs proof of LF's treachery to make an open move.

[aryagonnakill]

I know this is slightly off topic but I've seen a lot of people post about Mya Stone so I'd like to add my crackpot theory. By the time Sansa makes her move Sweet Robin will be dead and so will Harry the heir. Sansa will kill LF and make a big speech in front of a bunch of lords of the Vale. She will then propose to marry Mya Stone to Timmet son of Timmet of the burned men, to carry on the Aryn name. and rule the Vale, tho Bronze Yohnze will serve as lord protector until the heir of Timmet and Mya comes of age, finally uniting the Vale lords and mountain clans.

[tbc]

I know this is slightly off topic but I've seen a lot of people post about Mya Stone so I'd like to add my crackpot theory. By the time Sansa makes her move Sweet Robin will be dead and so will Harry the heir. Sansa will kill LF and make a big speech in front of a bunch of lords of the Vale. She will then propose to marry Mya Stone to Timmet son of Timmet of the burned men, to carry on the Aryn name. and rule the Vale, tho Bronze Yohnze will serve as lord protector until the heir of Timmet and Mya comes of age, finally uniting the Vale lords and mountain clans.

I can't see her turning into a warrior queen somehow.