Littlefinger's arc in Winds of Winter: westword bound!

[aryagonnakill]

I can't see her turning into a warrior queen somehow.

That particular scenario is just a crackpot version which ties together a lot of characters we have been introduced to, but are you saying you don't think Sansa will become a player at all?

[tbc]

That particular scenario is just a crackpot version which ties together a lot of characters we have been introduced to, but are you saying you don't think Sansa will become a player at all?

If you read my previous posts, I don't think anything of the sort. I can't stand her, at all, but there's every indication that she's going to transform from a piece to a player in TWoW.

But she isn't Dany, and she isn't going to suddenly reveal herself as an awesome, militaristic leader. She's shown no interest, despite ample provocation, in a grand campaign of revenge.

I think she's essentially a proto-Cersei (although a much nicer person fundamentally): priveliged, pampered noble girl, eager to escape to KL and marry the prince/king, traumatised by the results of violence (death of Rhaeger/Ned), then brutalised by the victors (Robert/Cersei and Joffrey), and hardened and matured by the experience. And so the way to understand how she'll operate is to look at Cersei. Cersei kept Jaime in the Kingsguard, created a Lannister state in all but name at KL, and essentially made a comfortable environment in which she could govern and manipulate.

My guess, foreshadowed heavily by the snow castle, is that Sansa will end up trying to do repair Winterfell and the North. She has no interest in the Vale, and no natural allies there. Depending on what happens in the Riverlands, there's a role for her to play at Riverrun, but Edmure is still alive, and I think that the Riverlands narrative will turn on the Red Wedding 2.0 at Riverrun, and the conclusion of the Jaime/Brienne/Cat and BwB story. Sansa could be a unfiying figure after the dust has settled and corpses have stopped twitching, but she's mourned for her lost home for books, and her return to Winterfell to reforge it has been heavily foreshadowed. She also makes sense as a conciliatory figure at Winterfell, ruling until Rickon comes of age (given that Jon, despite wanting to march south, isn't legally the heir to Winterfell, and Stannis is rather keen on laws).

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

If you read my previous posts, I don't think anything of the sort. I can't stand her, at all, but there's every indication that she's going to transform from a piece to a player in TWoW.

But she isn't Dany, and she isn't going to suddenly reveal herself as an awesome, militaristic leader. She's shown no interest, despite ample provocation, in a grand campaign of revenge.

I think she's essentially a proto-Cersei (although a much nicer person fundamentally): priveliged, pampered noble girl, eager to escape to KL and marry the prince/king, traumatised by the results of violence (death of Rhaeger/Ned), then brutalised by the victors (Robert/Cersei and Joffrey), and hardened and matured by the experience. And so the way to understand how she'll operate is to look at Cersei. Cersei kept Jaime in the Kingsguard, created a Lannister state in all but name at KL, and essentially made a comfortable environment in which she could govern and manipulate.

My guess, foreshadowed heavily by the snow castle, is that Sansa will end up trying to do repair Winterfell and the North. She has no interest in the Vale, and no natural allies there. Depending on what happens in the Riverlands, there's a role for her to play at Riverrun, but Edmure is still alive, and I think that the Riverlands narrative will turn on the Red Wedding 2.0 at Riverrun, and the conclusion of the Jaime/Brienne/Cat and BwB story. Sansa could be a unfiying figure after the dust has settled and corpses have stopped twitching, but she's mourned for her lost home for books, and her return to Winterfell to reforge it has been heavily foreshadowed. She also makes sense as a conciliatory figure at Winterfell, ruling until Rickon comes of age (given that Jon, despite wanting to march south, isn't legally the heir to Winterfell, and Stannis is rather keen on laws).

I agree that she will become a player, but she will be nothing like Cersei. For one, she had Cat to raise her for most of her life, unlike Cersei who lost her mother at an early age. Sansa was raised by a family that values honor and doing things the right way.

Sansa's problem was never her wits, but her foolish schoolgirl naivety. She is shedding this mold and becoming a stronger, harder person. I think she will embrace the potential marriage to Harry Hardyng for what it is...an opportunity. Whether she ends up married to Harry or Sweetrobin, she will at some point grab power in the Vale.

[tbc]

I agree that she will become a player, but she will be nothing like Cersei. For one, she had Cat to raise her for most of her life, unlike Cersei who lost her mother at an early age. Sansa was raised by a family that values honor and doing things the right way.

Sansa's problem was never her wits, but her foolish schoolgirl naivety. She is shedding this mold and becoming a stronger, harder person. I think she will embrace the potential marriage to Harry Hardyng for what it is...an opportunity. Whether she ends up married to Harry or Sweetrobin, she will at some point grab power in the Vale.

But I think they're trajectories have been similar, as outlined. Very, very similar (more than I'd realised until I thought about it). I don't think the outcome will be the same though: as I said, Sansa seems a basically decent person, and has been brought up to act honourably, consider others, and generally act for good. My point was more that I think her transition from pawn to player, the experiences from which she learns, and the hardening and maturing process she undergoes, are very similar to Cersei.

I'm still torn, though, on whether Sansa heads north or west. A return to Winterfell to rebuild it has been strongly hinted at, but she's much more of a Tully than a Stark.

[Little and Less]

Awesome OP. If GRRM writes it this way, then I would be hooked.

I also agree with you - the King status is not what LF wants - but being Hand, well, that would be a more influentical and manipulative seat for someone like LF.

I liked your OP because you're right, the Blackfish may have an ally in LF, I never thought about how these two would interact and how closely their goals would match up. I always thought that the Blackfish showing up in the Vale would be a bad thing for LF but not if LF convinces him that they both have to restore Riverrun to the Tully family and gain vengence on the Freys and Lannisters. I could see them as unlikely allies for the time being. But as you pointed out the Blackfish was who Cat, Lysa and LF would go to with their problems, I could also see the Blackfish knowing what kind of man LF is (and can spot the BS miles away).

I'm sold on LF wanting revenge on Hoster Tully - the man did not think he was ever good enough - the perfect motive and long game for LF. He seems to always want to screw anyone who underestimates/looks down at him - just because he can.

And the Freys bridge is a perfect sight for LF, just think of the profit he could make. He could effectively stop the flow of traffic there. I'm of the opinion that although destroying the Freys would serve LF well, that's not his goal. But amassing another pivitol castle and bridge is. He's already got the Eyrie/Vale, Harrrenhal, what about an important bridge to the North? And with the Frey's rapidly being decimated - the time is right to strike on obtaining this bridge.

[honeyed chicken]

Please correct me if I am wrong, but why is everyone so sure that LF will be able to stay in the Vale long enough to accomplish anything?

At the council meeting where Cersei created the problems with the IB, the only other thing she actually did was to give the Lords Declarant permission to toss LF out of the vale on his ass, providing they didn’t kill him doing it. Will LF actually be able to buy enough of the vale lords to be able to keep his place long enough for his plans to take shape?

It is a worthy question,

but the signs at the end of AFFC were pointing toward LF having the Vale pretty well in hand. His opponents were down from 6 lords to 3 if I remember correctly. I think there was just one lord LF expected to remain implacably opposed to him. I wouldn't give two shakes of a lamb's tail for that man's chances of living out his days in peace. LF's opponents have a way of conveniently dieing.

In general, I'd say Vale politics are pretty minor league compared to the stuff LF is used to at KL. I am counting on him having the Vale's 20,000 men at arms well in hand before he heads to Harrenhal.

The big question to me is Casterly Rock.

If Stoneheart does take Jamie's head, Maggie the Toad's prediction for Myrcella & Tommen comes true, Cersei goes down in flames as expected, Tyrion is dead so far as Westeros knows - does Sansa end up with CR as Tyrion's "widow"?

I've asked the question before and haven't gotten an answer. Guess we'll have to wait & see.

[juanml82]

I don't think so. If she marries to Harry the Heir because her marriage is annulled, she looses whatever flimsy claims she has to CR. I'm not sure if Tyrion can be declared dead without a corpse, and the crown is unlikely to allow it precisely for that reason. Besides, there are plenty of Lannisters to take CR. IMHO, LF can only claim CR for Sansa in the event of a decisive military victory, which has to be achieved without Sansa marrying Harry the Heir.

[Petyr Patter]

The big question to me is Casterly Rock.

If Stoneheart does take Jamie's head, Maggie the Toad's prediction for Myrcella & Tommen comes true, Cersei goes down in flames as expected, Tyrion is dead so far as Westeros knows - does Sansa end up with CR as Tyrion's "widow"?

I've asked the question before and haven't gotten an answer. Guess we'll have to wait & see.

Tyrion is not dead as far as Westeros knows. He is just "in hiding." Considering the prize awaiting the person who proves him dead, then rest of Westeros probably think he's hiding in Dorne (Oberon was his champion!) or the Mountain paths (he's friends with the hill tribes!), or where ever is far away and unlikely. Admittedly, after 5 years or so, some might consider him dead as well, but that is still a long ways off.

[honeyed chicken]

If she marries to Harry the Heir because her marriage is annulled,

This is true and I suspect some LF flim flam to avoid that wedding to keep her slender claim to CR alive (a slender claim is miles better than no claim at all). Also, I think he wants to save Sansa for himself so he can take the IT.

Petyr Patter

quote, "Tyrion is not dead as far as Westeros knows."

OK I retract what I said, but he's a big question mark and a slight bit of evidence to his passing would be taken as fact by most. This is where LF shines - providing misleading evidence (see a certain valyrian steel dagger in AGOT).

[Mist Isle]

I agree with the general idea of the OP. It seems likely that Harrold Hardyng will become Lord of the Vale and subsequently call his banners in TWoW. LF probably intends to persuade him to march against the Freys (which would be easy to do). The Blackfish will probably appear in the Vale and reinforce this process. The BF wants to avenge Robb and the Starks in general. He also will want to help Sansa Stark (upon discovering that she is in the Vale) and will find support in his views from Yohn Royce, who is a substantial power in the Vale. These factors mean that it will be rather easy for LF to ensure that the BF contributes to the cause.

If LF intends to retain his status as Lord Paramount of the Trident (to be recognized by Hardyng and the Blackfish) then Edmure Tully and his baby are in danger.

Another question is whether LF plans to have Sansa and Hardyng both crowned as monarchs (Queen in the North and King of Mountain and Vale, respectively) or to pledge loyalty to another monarch (possibly Aegon or Daenerys). It seems very likely that LF is about ready to ditch the Tyrells and Lannisters. Neither the Tyrells nor the Lannisters are now in a position to move against the Vale or its armies. Mace Tyrell has to worry about Aegon (and soon Dorne) and the Lannisters are in disarray and now military weakened.

[NotSoSilentSister]

Couldn't agree more with OP. I've always been of the firm conviction that LF is headed for Riverrun and probably already allied with the Blackfish (see my signature). Doesn't spell nice things for Edmure...

Quoting myself:

If LF really relied on the Vale, he’d try a bit harder to keep Sweet Robin alive for a little longer, I’d say. I don’t necessarily believe he’s actively trying to poison the child already - he might indeed just want him to be as little of a hassle as possible - but at any rate he’s not particularly careful either. Makes me think that maybe the Vale does not play a crucial role in his larger agenda after all. If he can keep it - great - if not, well, it served its purpose (a safe retreat while the rest of Westeros was at each others throat) and made for a good distraction. (Neither Cersei nor Jaime worry about LF believing him too busy establishing himself in the Vale). But the next phase of the plan will be probably launched somewhere else.

BTW, I don’t think that LF has any serious designs on Winterfell either. I bet, he’s not planning to lead any armies into any battles any time soon, and with Stannis and the Boltons in the North, he surely would have to. I don’t know where people get the idea that Stannis would so easily accept Sansa - we can actually be pretty sure that he wouldn’t, since he’ll soon have his own heir of Winterfell in Rickon - he’d at the very least make it conditional on Sansa declaring for him. Would LF really want her to do that? Would he risk getting in a fight with Stannis otherwise? That would hardly be playing to his strenghts (and LF is good at playing to his strenghts). Right now, LF has little use for the knights of the Vale.

I’d say he’s saving Sansa for an even more profitable marriage pact - someone who’ll have a direct shot at the Iron Throne. Willas Tyrell, Trystane Martell, Euron Greyjoy? Aegon, once he appears? LF’s gonna roll with it.

And meanwhile….

he might actually get Riverrun. Would be most satisfying on a personal level too, I guess.

Think about it: He’s got a seat in the Riverlands already, in theory only though. So far he has not shown any interest in establishing himself there, wisely, because that area is mess, still teeming with Lannister and Frey forces, who are in turn getting butchered by the BWB. LF’s smart to stay out of it. But there have been hints already that soon the situation will consolidate - there’s this big Frey/Lannister wedding on the horizon and the BWB is planning a little something…. Now lets assume we get a second Red Weddings, that’s probably goodbye for the Lannisters and Freys. But it’s also probably goodbye for Edmure, who is a Lannister hostage right now and would surely get killed in retaliation. And who’s next in line for Riverrun then?

The Lannisters decimated, the Riverlands back under control of Pro-Stark/Tully-forces - the perfect moment for a Sansa reveal!

Of course, LF can’t know that any of this will happen.

Or can he?

Okay, it would be a bit of a stretch that LF has teamed up with UnCat. But what about the BWB fragment led by Ned Dayne? There must have been some plot-related reason to split them up….

They would probably anticipate a retaliation against Edmure and try to free him in time, but if LF is involved, he can surely find a way to make that attempt fail.

[honeyed chicken]

Quoting myself:

Makes me think that maybe the Vale does not play a crucial role in his larger agenda after all.

But the next phase of the plan will be probably launched somewhere else.

Vale is 20,000 men and a pretty nice chunk of territory - why on earth wouldn't LF want men and land??

BTW, I don’t think that LF has any serious designs on Winterfell either.

Right now, LF has little use for the knights of the Vale.

Why on earth not? As Robert says to Ned "I forget that your part is as big as the other 6 combined" (paraphrasing wildly) LF clearly has grand designs. Imo, he will try to parlay Sansa into control over Winterfell and the north - which the Vale will help him hold.

The Vale & its 20,000 knights will also help him hold on to Harrenhal, which apart from its gory past is a rich plum and sits in the middle of the kingdom - a strategically valuable/vulnerable piece of ground.

I’d say he’s saving Sansa for an even more profitable marriage pact - someone who’ll have a direct shot at the Iron Throne. Willas Tyrell, Trystane Martell, Euron Greyjoy? Aegon, once he appears? LF’s gonna roll with it.

It appears to me we think similarly about what LF's goals are - they are BIG, but the specifics are harder to agree on.

For example, Highgarden has kraken trouble (last time we saw Euro, his ships were heading up river toward Highgarden).

They also have dragon trouble. JonCon & fAegon are working on a pact with Sunspear that spells very bad news for the Tyrells.

So I don't think they're going to be in any position to threaten LF north of KL - they'll probably come to him for help.

Say LF & the Blackfish do unite to drive the Lannisters out of Riverrun and then install Sansa as Lady of CR.

LF positions himself to control everything north of the Blackwater Rush & the Reach.

From there he can use his Highgarden connections to contain/defeat the dragons and simultaneously keep the Tyrells in the south & under his control. Plus he knows that a Tyrell delivered the poison to Joffrey and he's good at leaking info to help him and weaken others.

[Mist Isle]

I can easily see him as hand of the king for a puppet like Edric Storm. I'm not sure how it would get there either, but GRRM has said the readers are in for a surprise as to who ultimately sits the throne.

I think that there is a significant possibility that LF will seek to marry Sansa to a legitimized Edric Storm (who could inherit Iron Bank backing from Stannis) late in the story to help cement the power of his apprentice.

The throne contenders that have been fighting since early in the story (Daenerys, for example) are not likely not going to rule at the very end. It just seems incompatible with Martin's statements about the ending.

The TV series seems to have built up Gendry, who essentially replaces Edric Storm in that version, quite a bit. One cannot be sure if this indicates anything about the ending yet, but perhaps Gendry is going to sit the Iron Throne (possibly with Sansa as Queen) in the TV series ending while the book series ends with Edric and Sansa ruling Westeros. Then Robert's original pre-war plan to marry his son to Sansa would actually happen and represent an ironic resolution of the extraordinarily destructive wars.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I think that there is a significant possibility that LF will seek to marry Sansa to a legitimized Edric Storm (who could inherit Iron Bank backing from Stannis) late in the story to help cement the power of his apprentice.

The throne contenders that have been fighting since early in the story (Daenerys, for example) are not likely not going to rule at the very end. It just seems incompatible with Martin's statements about the ending.

The TV series seems to have built up Gendry, who essentially replaces Edric Storm in that version, quite a bit. One cannot be sure if this indicates anything about the ending yet, but perhaps Gendry is going to sit the Iron Throne (possibly with Sansa as Queen) in the TV series ending while the book series ends with Edric and Sansa ruling Westeros. Then Robert's original pre-war plan to marry his son to Sansa would actually happen and represent an ironic resolution of the extraordinarily destructive wars.

GRRM says the ultimate ruler will be a surprise, but that readers would be happy with the choice. This entail someone who seems to have little to no chance of sitting the throne, but is well liked by the readers and is someone whom they would be happy to see rule. Who fits this dynamic?

1. It would seem to rule out Dany and Jon as the favorites.

2. It would seem to rule out any of the present contenders

3. Trystane Martell and Shireen Baratheon maybe?

4. Edric Storm and Sansa?

5. Edric Storm and Arya - ironic match of Robert and Lyanna?

6. Rickon and Shireen?

7. Tyrion and Shireen?

I would like to see Jon and Arianne personally, but I'm more convinced than ever that will not happen due to GRRM's words.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

GRRM says the ultimate ruler will be a surprise, but that readers would be happy with the choice. This entail someone who seems to have little to no chance of sitting the throne, but is well liked by the readers and is someone whom they would be happy to see rule. Who fits this dynamic?

1. It would seem to rule out Dany and Jon as the favorites.

2. It would seem to rule out any of the present contenders

3. Trystane Martell and Shireen Baratheon maybe?

4. Edric Storm and Sansa?

5. Edric Storm and Arya - ironic match of Robert and Lyanna?

6. Rickon and Shireen?

7. Tyrion and Shireen?

I would like to see Jon and Arianne personally, but I'm more convinced than ever that will not happen due to GRRM's words.

Not many people outside of the forum know of the R+L=J theory. The TV series watchers know even less. It would be a surprise for Jon to sit the throne. I wouldn't say it rules out Dany completely because in Westeros, if there was a Jon and Dany marriage, Jon would be the ultimate ruler due to Westeros laws and beliefs. As for present contenders, aside from Dany, was there any people seemed to like. Euron is somewhat liked for his cunning and battle strategies, but I wouldn't say he is popular. Cersei everyone hates, and her kids are toast. Faegon, nobody likes, at least not as much as others. Is there one I'm missing that are actually fighting for the throne right now?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Not many people outside of the forum know of the R+L=J theory. The TV series watchers know even less. It would be a surprise for Jon to sit the throne. I wouldn't say it rules out Dany completely because in Westeros, if there was a Jon and Dany marriage, Jon would be the ultimate ruler due to Westeros laws and beliefs. As for present contenders, aside from Dany, was there any people seemed to like. Euron is somewhat liked for his cunning and battle strategies, but I wouldn't say he is popular. Cersei everyone hates, and her kids are toast. Faegon, nobody likes, at least not as much as others. Is there one I'm missing that are actually fighting for the throne right now?

Victarian is the only other person that I can think of. Have people taken more of a liking to him as an underdog? He seems to be a Robert type. Not too bright, but a strong fighter and honorable.

I really want Jon to take the throne though...I hope you are right. I don't care who he ultimately marries.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Victarian is the only other person that I can think of. Have people taken more of a liking to him as an underdog? He seems to be a Robert type. Not too bright, but a strong fighter and honorable.

I really want Jon to take the throne though...I hope you are right. I don't care who he ultimately marries.

Victarian as a king? Unless he marries Dany, no way, and even then, he doesn't want the Iron Throne, he isn't a likely candidate for a husband for Dany, and I can't see him living past TWOW. I hope Jon takes the throne, he is the character that deserves it the most.

[tbc]

GRRM says the ultimate ruler will be a surprise, but that readers would be happy with the choice. This entail someone who seems to have little to no chance of sitting the throne, but is well liked by the readers and is someone whom they would be happy to see rule. Who fits this dynamic?

1. It would seem to rule out Dany and Jon as the favorites.

2. It would seem to rule out any of the present contenders

3. Trystane Martell and Shireen Baratheon maybe?

4. Edric Storm and Sansa?

5. Edric Storm and Arya - ironic match of Robert and Lyanna?

6. Rickon and Shireen?

7. Tyrion and Shireen?

I would like to see Jon and Arianne personally, but I'm more convinced than ever that will not happen due to GRRM's words.

Ramsey.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Ramsey.

No way.

[tbc]

No way.

It is known.

I have a serious suspicion it'll be Stannis, or Aegon.