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Colonel Green

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  1. Sansa doesn't like Margaery because she likes to ride horses. She likes her because she's the ideal of a courtly lady, which Arya definitely is not, and they engage in various traditional ladylike activities (things Sansa specifically states she always dreamed of doing with a sister but which Arya wasn't any good at or had no interest in). And, of course, she comes along at a point where Sansa desperately needs a friend. While Sansa is certainly influenced (as everybody is) by what other people say to her, I don't think any of those instances is her just accepting other people's judgements without question. Sansa's belief that she is stupid is directly linked to that she once trusted Cersei and Joffrey and they both completely betrayed all the faith she put in them, shattering her whole worldview. That they're calling her stupid on top of that certainly doesn't help, but I wouldn't say it's the source of her lack of self-esteem. Likewise, through AFFC we see her given various tasks to perform and largely succeeding at them. Sansa specifically states in ACOK Sansa II that she tries not to think about her friends and family because it's too painful to do so.
  2. I'm not sure what you mean here. Obviously Lysa will publicly claim that Robert is Jon Arryn's child, just as she lies that the Lannisters were responsible for Jon Arryn's death. But in the climax of ASOS she is not trying to hide any secrets, she is desperately begging Littlefinger to love her and making highly incriminating references without regard for anyone else overhearing; there is no reason, in this context, why she would pretend that Robert is not Littlefinger's son.
  3. Lysa wants Littlefinger's child. If she was sleeping with Littlefinger at the time Robert was conceived, she would know that it was a possibility he was the father. And if Robert's appearance is such a dead giveaway that his father is Littlefinger, Lysa, of all people, would recognize that. If anything, Lysa would be absolutely certain that Robert was Littlefinger's, not deluding herself that he wasn't.
  4. We know so little about her that it feels weird to say hate. However, she appears (by implication) to be yet another of GRRM’s overly-sexualized preteens, given that she can’t have been more than 12-13 years old by the time the Blackfyre Rebellion started.
  5. Same situation, though, if the North was populated at even the average density of the rest of Westeros it would have an army larger than the Reach.
  6. I would say the books absolutely support the contention that the North is poor compared to many of the other kingdoms (hard not to be when cartoonishly hellish winters routinely disrupt all economic activity for years), but that the North is thinly populated is undeniable -- if it was densely populated it would dwarf the other kingdoms in strength.
  7. The Lannisters need the Tyrells' support, as Tywin himself says. They'd have to put up with it, the alternative is worse. And the North is definitely not "one of the most valuable realms in the kingdom". It is large, but poor, thinly populated, and distant, and to all appearances most southerners don't think much of or about it. It's a nice bonus (and, in Tywin's case, a nice way to get rid of Tyrion) for whoever wins it. Yes, she could, because it serves no other purpose from the POV of the schemers. Littlefinger was the one who suggested Tyrion for the role of Master of Coin, he can't be that worried about what he'd do in the role.
  8. Removing a stone from a setting on a net attached to a person's head is not something you can do casually without the person noticing. Moreover, it would be extremely improper for a servant to touch a noble like that in the middle of a feast, which is why Olenna makes such a production out of doing so.
  9. There's no indication that this was the case. And it's not like there wouldn't be plenty of witnesses. If Aegon had made the whole thing up, that would have been the subject of a propaganda war.
  10. Why would they think that, precisely? The underlying rationale for the Lannister/Tyrell alliance remains the exact same, and the Tyrells are numerically the stronger partner in the alliance, so there is no incentive whatsoever for the Lannisters to dissolve it; that would end badly for them, in all likelihood, at a minimum to no advantage. That's why only a moron like Cersei subsequently goes about trying this. But we know it wasn't a servant, it was Olenna, the only one who touched the hairnet. The hairnet does not make any sense purely as a logistical/smuggling matter. Nobody is searching the servants (or the nobles) as they enter. The only reason for Sansa to wear the hairnet is that somebody wants at least the option of framing her for the attack.
  11. A lot depends on when the Vale had marched, of course, but if we're talking about the Vale entering the war immediately as had been widely expected (or even after Robb's victories at Whispering Wood and the Camps), then Robb almost certainly never gets to a point where he's facing "an alliance of the Westerlands, the Crownlands, and the Reach". An Arryn expeditionary force of 20,000 men (conservatively, assuming this is rapid mobilization) marching down the High Road is equal in number to the army that Tywin has the Crossroads. Honestly, in this scenario Robb probably doesn't even bother with his surprise splitting of his forces at the Twins and takes his whole army down the Kingsroad to link up with the Arryns to try to crush Tywin. Tywin in turn probably withdraws westward to meet up with Jaime, leading to a grand battle of the combined Lannister vs. Stark/Arryn/Tully forces where the latter have the numerical advantage. If it's after the Camps, Robb has the men to both pursue his Westerlands campaign and to aggressively hem Tywin in in the Riverlands in a way that would have made the rescue of King's Landing at the Blackwater impossible.
  12. I don't think that follows at all. The hairnet has a role in what the Tyrells understand the plot to be -- it doesn't need to serve any purpose beyond that, since Littlefinger's plan is to dupe the Tyrells as well. I don't agree there, either, and based on the amount of advance work involved in things like locating the Essosi jousting dwarves and cajoling Joffrey into what to do with them, Littlefinger has to have had that in the pipeline for quite a while. Per GRRM, she would have, had it come to it. Note that the Tyrells avoid just asking the Lannisters for Sansa or taking any overt actions to marry her to Willas until after the wedding, which is the point where they'd know whether she was actually needed to take the fall or not.
  13. From GRRM's interviews, the Tyrells weren't in on Tyrion being the fall-guy. Their plan was (a) that Joffrey's death be passed off as choking (this is the strongest evidence that Lady Alerie was involved, since she immediately and loudly declares that Joffrey choked as soon as it happens) and, failing that (b) that Sansa be blamed for it as the murdered, since she's wearing the poisoned hairnet. This also explains what the purpose of the hairnet was, since if they knew Sansa was fleeing it would be pointless, as she'd be incriminated regardless by that action. Framing Tyrion and extracting Sansa were Littlefinger's own additions to the plan (though I suppose, from the Tyrells' perspective, if Sansa ended up needing to be incriminated, after the marriage there was a good chance that Tyrion would be accused of being involved as well).
  14. Margaery didn't give up her crown, she just changed the king she was married to. No they don't. Margaery can play the courtly lady, just like Sansa can, but she's got no superpower to make him not a psychopath. Margaery was never the Queen Regent and they couldn't reliably predict that she could take that position. Cersei's opinion doesn't matter much at all, in the circumstances. Tywin was not scheduled to depart on campaign again. I'm unsure where you got that from. And as you say, Cersei was reduced to irrelevance once Tywin arrived to take charge, where there was every expectation he would remain for years to come. Wait, weren't you just arguing the Tyrells' power was waning badly and they desperately had to kill Tyrion to avert destruction? "As far as the reader knows", meaning that the reader on first interpreting that sentence doesn't know there's going to be an assassination. The words are only fully understood afterward, a standard part of mystery writing. Yes, they do. And I specifically noted the example of Arys Oakheart: Joffrey. He had been a handsome lad, tall and strong for his age, but that was all the good that could be said of him. It still shamed Ser Arys to remember all the times he'd struck that poor Stark girl at the boy's command. When Tyrion had chosen him to go with Myrcella to Dorne, he lit a candle to the Warrior in thanks. No, the expectation is that they be kept as prisoners. It is not the standard to punish noble prisoners with random beatings. Which is why we only see Joffrey do that. The Tyrells haven't been overlords for thousands of years, to begin with, but also, the Reach was, as previously established, not in any sense dominant over Westeros. And there's nothing "meek" about it. Tywin and the Tyrells are on the same page about wanting to work together to rule Westeros to their mutual benefit, and the Tyrells benefit extensively. And with the way things are shaping up, the Tyrells' influence only grows in the long-term, especially since House Lannister outside of Tywin's generation is not particularly impressive. No, they didn't. Please cite any portion of the text supporting this assertion of yours. You keep toggling around in the timeline, so it's hard to keep track of what you were referring to when you talked about armies and navies, after already making up that the Tyrells had lost land after Robert's Rebellion. Since Tywin wasn't supposed to die, it's irrelevant what they "could" have gotten if Joffrey was still alive and Margaery married to him. That wasn't the plan, and there wasn't any particular reason to expect Tywin to suddenly be assassinated. The Tyrells at the time of Joffrey's death have three small council seats, and afterwards Tywin concedes them the Master of Coin role as well. They were doing very well indeed. And with Pycelle likely to die in the near future, the Grand Maester's post would very likely have been theirs as well, from what we can see. Such as when she cleverly finds a way to decline Tyrion's offer of shelter within the Tower of the Hand without making him suspicious, and thus allowing her to continue participation in the plot. The whole reason she sought him out that night was because she'd already been having suspicions about it, without prompting. "Getting Joffrey to act" could very easily have the effect of preventing Ned from coming south, since Littlefinger would have no idea what or when he'd decide to do or whether Joffrey would be found out. 5000 goldcloaks? Try 300ish men, total, per the book. Any event that happens in the North is inherently a more favourable place for Ned than King's Landing. He's in the driver's seat, with large forces at his disposal, and his own castle is where all the parties are staying.
  15. And she'll have to keep doing those things. You never reach a stage in politics where you're playing on easy mode for the rest of the time. Which she doesn't, at this juncture, because achieving that would require her to do a lot of other stuff she's going to have to do first. Myranda mightn't care, but Harry has no reason to marry her. She's already been rejected, she's not attractive to him (as far as we know), and she doesn't bring any major political or economic advantage. No, it's not odd at all, because Sansa spent most of Books 2 and 3 in a situation where she had virtually no agency, and she's now moved into a place where she has a bit more. Each step in this process involves learning how to make use of her abilities, and she's only started as an active player. Moreover, the Vale provides the potential for agency because it's a means to gaining important allies and assets that she currently lacks, and which supply her narrative weight that she would not have in the North by herself. Is that all!
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