Why do people think everyone will follow Jon?

[Addam of Hull]

Based on the tone of the letters from Cotter Pyke in ADWD, I don't think he was all that enthused with the leadership of Jon. I doubt his support was ever that deep...the majority of his backing was because of who he was not rather than what he was as a leader.

I don't think we can necessarily judge how Cotter Pyke feels about Jon based on the tone of his letters. He's generally supposed to speak in a very rough way and most his letters are matter-of-fact and filled with short sentences. They seem to just convey the facts rather than any real feelings Pyke has about them. But based on what we know of Cotter Pyke, I don't think he's the type of man to hesitate to express his dislike of someone.

And when I talk about the Night's Watch as a whole, I'm speaking more about the general populous and how they interact with Jon on a day-to-day basis. He often chats with various guards and men when prowling around Castle Black and the latest group of recruits all opt to take their vows in front of a Weirwood Tree because of the respect and admiration they have for Jon. That screams natural leader to me.

The most logical thing at the moment, as was said above, is that Robb's will is what will make people follow Jon, if GRRM chooses to go that route.

Otherwise, I really haven't seen this "SONG OF ICE AND FIRE= JON so shut up" argument people seem to be referring to. I don't think Jon will get his power through his Targ heritage if he does get his power, it will be through his Stark heritage, Robb's will, Ghost, and his resemblance to the beloved Ned Stark.

Oh, and the idea that because a guy gets killed by some of his followers that makes him a bad leader is patently ridiculous. What if some of his followers are total idiots and he has nothing to work with? As was pointed out above, Abe Lincoln is not considered a bad leader simply because he got killed. Jon to me does seem like a very natural leader. He rose up very quickly through the ranks of the NW (although admittedly he had a pretty big advantage over many others in the NW) and he seems to attract some pretty loyal followers along with the malcontents in his short reign.

That's because said arguments don't actually exist. There are people who do legitimately believe that Jon will be the one on the Iron Throne at the end - and those who believe in the GNC - but nobody actually goes around using JON = SONG OF ICE AND FIRE as a real argument. Or, I supposed as an addendum, if they do, it's such a small portion of Jon fans/supporters that it's negligible, but people like to blow it out of proportion in order to discredit him and his fans.

[Winterfellian]

Otherwise, I really haven't seen this "SONG OF ICE AND FIRE= JON so shut up" argument people seem to be referring to. I don't think Jon will get his power through his Targ heritage if he does get his power, it will be through his Stark heritage, Robb's will, Ghost, and his resemblance to the beloved Ned Stark.

I agree. I have never seen this argument in this context and I've spent my share of time in Jon threads. Anyway, Like Tagganaro mentions, most people who sees Jon in a position of power do so through Robb's will and not through some secret Targaryen heritage.

My take is that Jon's parentage is going to play into another faction and not as a way to name him Jon Targaryen and sit him on the Iron Throne. I said this on another thread, GRRM has set Jon (as well as other characters) in certain established archetypes only to subvert/deconstructed their respective roles as the story moves forward aided by the POV structure of ASOIAF. Jon's parentage is an example of this subversion. Is likely possible Jon indeed has a claim to the IT but by attaching him to the NW from the very beginning of his arch he is set in a path that would nullify any royal claim he might have had through his secret parentage. By doing this GRRM is subverting the expectations we might have held when Jon’s parentage is first brought to the table. Finding out his parentage will be important for his character development, but I seriously doubt he will end up with his ass on the throne because of this.

About people following Jon. Assuming he doesn't come back as a UnJon or something like that I think Jon has many qualities that make him fit for leading people. He might not have Robert Baratheon's charisma but neither did Ned and we see people walking through a blizzard in freezing temperatures for the Ned's little girl. Jon still is young and has some issues to work wrt his style of leadership but there's a good foundation there. While he has little charisma, he is the sort of person that always tries to lead by example, he recognizes and places the value of the individual (the man) over power trappings, is dutiful, very susceptible to good advice no matter the source, he thinks outside the box and is willing to break with conventional methods and ideas should they prove useless when performing a duty or are in detriment of the common good. And he does all this out of a keen sense of duty and moral sense of right not because he expects a pat in the back for all his efforts.

As to the assassination attempt, it only takes one craven or one lunatic. JFK, Ghandi, Indira Ghandi, Martin Luther King, Lincoln are all examples of leaders assassinated while in power. As far as we can tell the conspiracy is the work of 4 men acting out of fear and not a reflection of the whole of the NW acting against Jon.

[Kahl Trollo]

nah. Whoever died first in that universe set the trend. Not in the story either. The first person who died before the time changed to AC

Maybe this is why he'll be resurrected.

Jon: Yeah I was dying WAY before it was 'cool'. Now it's so mainstream... so I decided to stop (hair flip).

[TalalOfDorne]

Not everyone will follow him. In fact, I hope he never becomes king.

[Maegor the Cuddly]

Not everyone will follow him. In fact, I hope he never becomes king.

Exactly. For his whole life, the entire world has seen him as Ned Stark's bastard son. IF Jon figures it out, IF Howland Reed comes out about it, IF Jon wants the throne, WHO would go, "Hey, I believe the Black Bastard of the Wall and the weird Crannogman. Jon for King!"?

[Night'sQueen]

Abraham Lincoln would like a word with you.

That was just wickedly good.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Because he will be the savior at the end.

[Lana]

I have often wondered this, and I've brought this up on other threads. The answer I've usually gotten is:

Other Posters: *As if speaking to a child* "Where do I begin, how is this not obvious? The saga is called 'A Song of Ice and Fire.' ICE AND FIRE. The Starks are ice, Targaryens are fire. Jon is the UNION OF ICE AND FIRE! What is there not to understand!? HE IS THE UNION OF ICE AND FIRE!!!!"

Me: "But how would he be able to prove . . .

Other Posters: "ICE AND FIRE!!!!!"

So, to answer your question, I still have no idea how he would ever prove he was a Targaryen.

LOL, my thoughts exactly. There is no plausible explanation for how anyone will come to know that R+L=J. Howland Reed and Bran can't broadcast green dreams to the rest of the Westeros. Dragons liked Brown Ben (omg bow down) yet torched Quentyn who definitely had Targ blood.

Anyway, Jon could take the Iron Throne if he took it by force or by merit of his actions, but I'll bet anything this won't happen because it isn't in line with his character or the type of story that GRRM is telling. There is way too much fantasy wish fulfillment among posters on these forums with respect to Jon being King.

King in the North, I can concede, because it's in line with his self-identity and Robb's will legitimizing him allows for a plausible explanation. Mmm... although I believe that Sansa and Rickon will survive so I don't really believe in this either.

[Night'sQueen]

To the questions in the OP:

Rather than asking if anyone would believe him about his parentage, I think we first need to ask if knowledge of his true parents would change Jon? I think it would hurt him deeply to learn the tragic story of his parents (assuming R+L=J is true) and to learn that Ned was not his father. He's not going to be running around like he just won the lottery saying "I'm Rhaegar's son, now get out of my chair!" If it is revealed to him, he may not tell anyone. It would have to be revealed to someone else in power who would then want to use it to put Jon in power.

Secondly, there is an assumption here that being a legit Targaryen would lead Jon to automatic king status as long as people believe it. But being a Targ wouldn't be an automatic step to the throne for him any more than it is for Dany and Aegon. Jon would have to fight for it because it is contested.

Which leads to, would Jon even want to be king of anything? I don't think so. He would not seek that out (which is one indicator he would probably be a good king). He had the command of the NW thrust upon him and he has done a really good job. The Abe Lincoln line was funny, but not an inapt comparison in that Jon is trying to make radical changes that he believes are for the good of everyone and people who can't get out of the status quo mindset resent him for it. But Jon sees the big picture -- wildlings are humans and we should all be fighting a common enemy instead of each other.

Talking about the masses supporting him is really more of a modern day scenario. The smallfolk have no say under the current political structure. If there is a massive Battle for the Dawn II in which the lordly houses are decimated then maybe there could be a new structure and Jon could be rallied around as king by the survivors. But that just sounds too cliche for GRRM.

And I have seen the Jon is Ice + Fire idea put forward to prove that he is the main character/protagonist, that he fulfills prophecies, but not as a proof positive that he will be King in the North or sit on the Iron Throne.

I think Jon will survive the attack (his story is not over yet), he will lead in a massive battle and be a hero, people will follow him, but he will not be a king (though he is a better candidate than anyone else).

[Thor Odinson]

LOL Yes, I see so many people use the ICE AND FIRE excuse to explain this. It makes me laugh a lot.

…because I guess Martin picks the titles for his epics out of a hat, and they really don’t have any bearing on anything in the series, right?

To answer the question…

1. Nobody lays the groundwork for something like R + L = J over the course of five novels and 17 years, something which apparently won’t be revealed until the final book, if it doesn’t matter or won’t have any implications for the world at large.
   
   
2. Jon’s identity hasn’t been spilled in the books yet, so we have no idea what sort of evidence might exist out there that proves indisputably that he’s the legitimate heir to Rhaegar. Apparently there’s something in Lyanna’s crypt, so for all we know there might be some incontrovertible evidence proving who Jon is alongside a signed and sealed letter there written by Rhaegar attesting to Jon being his son and heir.
   

Will Jon become king? Who knows? But to say he wouldn’t be able to garner support is ludicrous. Let’s lay out the possibilities.

1. Robb’s Will: This potentially makes Jon the legitimate heir to Winterfell and King in the North. That means that he’s already pretty much got the loyalty of the North guaranteed. If the Boltons get knocked off then there would be nothing to stop the North from declaring for him. And if they learn that Jon is not only the rightful heir to Winterfell but heir to the Iron Throne as well then you can damn well better believe that they’ll be willing to support his claim. You can’t tell me the North wouldn’t want a Stark on the Iron Throne.
   
   
2. The Wildlings: Despite minor hiccups like, you know, getting stabbed… *cough* Jon is on his way to binding together the Night’s Watch and the Wildlings, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he’d do the same with the Wildlings and the North. The Wildlings are already pretty loyal to Jon, and they’d bring in a good influx of reinforcements to strengthen the North after the losses they’ve suffered.
   
   
3. The Riverlands: Like the North, it’s under the control of a family everybody hates. If the Freys are overthrown and the Blackfish returns then the Riverlands would quickly throw its support behind a resurgent North again.
   
   
4. The Vale: It’s not a stretch to believe that Sansa might end up taking control of the Vale. Littlefinger is already setting things up that way, only he expects he’ll be in control of it all. If something happens to him after most of his plans come to fruition, however, then Sansa will wield enormous power in the Vale. More than enough to get the armies of the Vale, which have been untouched after the War of the Five Kings, on the side of the North and the Riverlands. So that right there would be THREE of the Seven Kingdoms which would be willing to follow Jon’s claim.
   
   
5. Dorne: Many people here believe that Aegon’s a fake, and if he’s proven to be indisputably fake while Jon is indisputably proven to be the son of Rhaegar, then Dorne may very well end up siding with him. They won’t side with Daenerys after what happened to Quentyn, and whatever plans they might have with Myrcella are likely to blow up given the prophecy of Maggy the Frog and the likelihood that Myrcella will end up dead shortly after the attempt to crown her. Not to mention that they despise the Lannisters and the Tyrells. Jon would offer them the chance to finally be avenged on their enemies, as well as being a genuine Targaryen who they can throw their support behind. If Dorne can be convinced to side with him, then that’s FOUR of the Seven Kingdoms.
   
   
6. The Opposition: Who would oppose him? The Lannister/Tyrell alliance is fracturing. He wouldn’t be facing a unified enemy headed up by Tywin Lannister. He’d be facing a divided and fractured enemy headed up by Cersei Lannister, who only really has control of the Westerlands forces, which have been badly spent during all the fighting. The Vale and probably Dorne would be coming into it rather fresh while the Lannister forces have suffered large losses, and are only bolstered by an ever weakening alliance with the Reach.
   
   
7. Dragons: There are three dragons in the story. We’ve been beaten over the head with the knowledge that no one may ride more than one dragon, so Daenerys doesn’t have two spare dragons for her to ride. Those two dragons are for other riders, and the odds are exceedingly good that Jon is one of those riders. Aegon the Conquerer conquered Westeros with three dragons and a small army. Jon would only have one, but he’d also have at least three kingdoms and a Wildling army at his back, too.
   
   
8. The Others: Who knows what condition Westeros will be in after they invade, but it’s pretty clear that Jon will play a pivotal role in that conflict. Victory in that conflict could only usher in further possible support for him.
   

I’m not saying Jon will be king or that all of those things would happen to him if he were to press a claim, or that he would even want to press a claim (Personally I’d prefer to see the story end with Stannis on the Iron Throne and Jon as Lord of Winterfell), but I find it to be absolutely daft that people think that when the knowledge of who Jon’s parents are is revealed it won’t have an enormous impact on the story or the world, and that he can’t possibly garner enough support to be a serious contender.

The North and the Riverlands would be willing to march into the gates of Hell for a Stark, particularly if he frees them from the Boltons and the Freys, and the Wildlings may very well be willing to go as far for Jon personally. And the Vale isn’t just going to sit there the entire saga doing nothing. The Vale and its fresh armies are going to do something, and with Sansa there it’s likely that they, too, will also end up following the Starks. All those armies are almost guaranteed for Jon, all those armies are more than enough to make him a serious contender, particularly when you factor in that the opposition has become incredibly weak and divided, and that’s before you even mention other potential sources of aid like Dorne, dragons, Lightbringer, etc.