Future Importance of the Crown's Debt

[LannistersPride]

Complex financial systems require a level of governance, institutionalization, and social trust not yet achieved in Westeros.

Also, I think something got confused: he says "Over the course of a years-long summer, the workforce will grow and wages will fall" which means that the workforce will grow due to the number of new workers (ie, children coming of age) will outpace the worker loss rate (which is higher in winter). It doesn't have anything to do with reproduction per se; anyway, we know that while Westerosi seasons are irregular and longer than ours, a decade-long summer is extremely unusual.

I agree that the death rate will be lower in the summer but I think on a micro scale families will offset that by having fewer children knowing that a child will be harder to take care of during the equally longer winter. I imagine a more static society that values life more (due to the investment that comes with feeding someone for say 3 years during a typical winter) and therefore would be less likely to accept starvation.

[Djinn]

before the war

Still, any other faction other then the Tyrell-Lannister alliance will, in case of victory, the option of sacking CR and HG to pay the debt. And the Tyrell-Lannister actually seem to have the means to pay, it's just gross mismanagement that stops them.

[Mulled Wino]

Still, any other faction other then the Tyrell-Lannister alliance will, in case of victory, the option of sacking CR and HG to pay the debt. And the Tyrell-Lannister actually seem to have the means to pay, it's just gross mismanagement that stops them.

unless they are sacked by someone else, like the IB, who are damm close as we speak. Not to mention the lannister chiefs are disappearing pretty rapidly. So could a lot of their loyalty with their big names pretty much extinct (assuming jamie is out of the public eye for awhile).

[Mulled Wino]

I agree that the death rate will be lower in the summer but I think on a micro scale families will offset that by having fewer children knowing that a child will be harder to take care of during the equally longer winter. I imagine a more static society that values life more (due to the investment that comes with feeding someone for say 3 years during a typical winter) and therefore would be less likely to accept starvation.

you havent been around many poor people have you?

[LannistersPride]

you havent been around many poor people have you?

Haha ignoring the political incorrectness of your post, poor people today face the economic question of providing their additional kids with new clothes and presents on christmas, not basic sustenance and shelter.

[Mulled Wino]

Haha ignoring the political incorrectness of your post, poor people today face the economic question of providing their additional kids with new clothes and presents on christmas, not basic sustenance and shelter.

Not so in the third world. When times are "good" very little long term planning goes on in how much reproduction is going on.

How was the question politically incorrect? I dont pay much attention to all that.

[Yukle]

Given how much the Iron Bank of Braavos has been talked up as a massively powerful entity capable of literally toppling dynasties to get back their money, it'd be enormously disappointing for me if they didn't, at the very least, make Stannis an incredibly powerful force.

[LannistersPride]

Not so in the third world. When times are "good" very little long term planning goes on in how much reproduction is going on.

How was the question politically incorrect? I dont pay much attention to all that.

The idea that one's economic well being makes one less intelligent as shown by their inability to properly account for the well being of their progeny is offensive to some.

Not me though. In my opinion hard to accept facts are worth mentioning no matter who is offended by them.

[Summah]

Haha ignoring the political incorrectness of your post, poor people today face the economic question of providing their additional kids with new clothes and presents on christmas, not basic sustenance and shelter.

In most of the world there are poor people who struggle every day to feed themselves and their children. Even in rich countries people struggle with food security, according to the USDA in the United States 14.9% of households had food insecurity some time during te year and 5.7% had very low food security.

[Ser Lepus]

It's not about births, per se - the rate of births will be constant but infant mortality will be higher in the summer; more importantly, in the winter adult mortality is a lot higher. So when the first harvest of any new cycle comes, population is at its lowest. But then it increases because the death rate decreases.

But those babies that are born during summer are still toddlers when winter starts. And if those children survive the next 1 - 2 years long winter, they will still be little children that can't work like adults or have children of their own.

More children are born during summers, and more children die during winters, the seasonal difference would be of a child per family at most.

My point is that the seasonal variations in the population aren't enough to call it a malthusian cycle, because the population can't increase during a normal summer fast enough to make a real difference, and that increase is corrected/countered during the winter.

A real malthusian cycle requires that during a long favourable period population increases a lot, reaching a point in which the land can't sustain them, and then they start getting poorly fed, become vulnerable to illness, and disease comes and correct the excess population. A normal seasonal cycle isn't long enough to allow a real malthusian cycle because only a baby (exceptionally two) can be born during the summer, which is still a toddler when winter comes, and that's not enough to call it a malthusian cycle. People starve during winters, but not because of an excess of population, but just by lack of harvests.

A long string of short winters and long summers, on the other hand, like the one the kingdom has had, is long enough to provoke a malthusian cycle. In short: there could be a malthusian cycle, but not a seasonal one.

[JonathanTheBold]

this is correct. 3 dragons arent that badass.

Tycho will have arya on speed raven in no time

Did you just compare the fantasy equivalent of WMDs to a little girl who is no one and you don't feel stupid

[JonathanTheBold]

this is correct. 3 dragons arent that badass.

Tycho will have arya on speed raven in no time

Did you just compare the fantasy equivalent of WMDs to a little girl who is no one and you don't feel stupid