What will be Olenna Redwyne's role in TWOW

[HodorForKing]

For the record, an argument about whether Euron Greyjoy should hypothetically take HG or Oldtown or succeed at sea or in the Mander is really surrounding the OP in the vaguest of ways. I was not calling the contents of the argument stupid, you both had valid thoughts and took the same facts but came to different assumptions and conclusions. My issue was the stupidity of the format of the argument that could have been settled in two posts, yet continued to stretch on for like 20 posts that all basically repeat the same argument points. Although I tended to agree with your conclusions that taking HG would be nigh impossible, I figured that since no one but you or HodorForKing was posting anything on the thread for quite a while, we would benefit from actually talking about Olenna Tyrell instead of how many Maesters choose to forge their iron chain link.

And your second point is like throwing stones in a glass house since everything from yours and HodorForKing's posts were extremely repetitive, nitpicky, and ultimately undeterminable without major assumptions.

So please feel free to start a thread about the garrison left behind at HG and whether or not Euron could take the castle by guile. But most likely your gonna troll back at me claiming my misunderstanding of the pointless argument, because you just seem that argumentative, and would probably like to make everyone read another 20-40 useless posts by arguing about nothing.

lol, its true, but I don't think that you guys should start complaining about what is considered off topic and such, we're here to discuss, if some of us get away from the topic, leave them there and keep on discussing about stuff more relevant to the topic that you want to talk about, that's the objective of the forums... your first paragraph of text was really wise, but you could have cutted this other two parts... Anyways, lets keep on with the matter: the Tyrells, and stop discussing about what we shall discuss

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

For the record, an argument about whether Euron Greyjoy should hypothetically take HG or Oldtown or succeed at sea or in the Mander is really surrounding the OP in the vaguest of ways. I was not calling the contents of the argument stupid, you both had valid thoughts and took the same facts but came to different assumptions and conclusions. My issue was the stupidity of the format of the argument that could have been settled in two posts, yet continued to stretch on for like 20 posts that all basically repeat the same argument points. Although I tended to agree with your conclusions that taking HG would be nigh impossible, I figured that since no one but you or HodorForKing was posting anything on the thread for quite a while, we would benefit from actually talking about Olenna Tyrell instead of how many Maesters choose to forge their iron chain link.

And your second point is like throwing stones in a glass house since everything from yours and HodorForKing's posts were extremely repetitive, nitpicky, and ultimately undeterminable without major assumptions.

So please feel free to start a thread about the garrison left behind at HG and whether or not Euron could take the castle by guile. But most likely your gonna troll back at me claiming my misunderstanding of the pointless argument, because you just seem that argumentative, and would probably like to make everyone read another 20-40 useless posts by arguing about nothing.

Your opinion and position are duly noted and summarily dismissed in the spirit that they were given.

Of course if you feel so strongly about it start your own thread and feel free to set guidelines for the type of responses you would like from fellow posters. Until then let the OP control the type and flow of the discourse that occurs in his/her thread.

Lastly, I don't troll "friend," I simply read, analyze, and post. Good day to you.

[HodorForKing]

Getting back to Olenna, I personnaly think that she's the "Friend from the Reach" that Jon was talking about. In the HBO series she has a lot of dialogues with Varys, what may mean that she knows about his plan and the coming of the new Targaryen heir. If it wasn't Varys that told it to her, she is intelligent enought to deduce this, and might have some informants to tell her about the secret mettings of the spider and Tyrion's trip

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

facing Aegon would not be intelligent for the Tyrells; they should let the remaining Lannister forces face him, them Aegon would not consider then enemies yet, while they think wich king in the throne would fit better to them, but knowing of Mace's intelligence is really probable that he ends up ruining his mother's masterplan or atleast difficulting it.

You must understand that the Lannisters are a spent force. The initial 20,000 men made up Tywin's host returned to the Westerlands to disband, except for the 2,000 men Cersei sent to help take Dragonstone. With Riverrun taken and the war in the Riverlands all but done, Daven's host is also fast melting away, according to Kevin in ADWD. Kevan died before he could raise up a new host. All that is left of the Lannister forces are the few hundred guardsmen in King's Landing, what remains of the 2,000 men that went to Dragonstone (probably back on their way to the West), and likely 5,000 to 8,000 men left in Daven's host.

Mace Tyrell is in full control of the realm at the moment. If he does not act who will? Aegon and Connington have conquered 2/3 of the Stormlands, including the capital. All that remains are the Dornish Marches. If my estimates are correct 12,000 to 15,000 men are there to be had. If Aegon secures the Stormlands, Dorne, the Crownlands, and half the Reach is likely to follow. Mace has to act now if he wants sole control over the iron throne.

Lady Olenna is a different story. Her sole objective if the survival and prosperity of House Tyrell. If she sees things going badly she will act without question. If she judges Aegon to be the proper course, she will most certainly move to kill Tommen and keep Mace from making more of a mess of things. The question is whether she will work with or against Nym and the Dornish?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Getting back to Olenna, I personnaly think that she's the "Friend from the Reach" that Jon was talking about. In the HBO series she has a lot of dialogues with Varys, what may mean that she knows about his plan and the coming of the new Targaryen heir. If it wasn't Varys that told it to her, she is intelligent enought to deduce this, and might have some informants to tell her about the secret mettings of the spider and Tyrion's trip

Well, it was not Jon (Connington) who spoke of having "Friends in the Reach." It was Laswell Peake, an exiled lord from the Reach. the Peake's were stripped of two of the three castles they held for supporting Daemon Blackfyre. So, it seems certain that Laswell and few others from the Reach have been in contact with some houses they can depend on. Lady Olenna would certainly not be apart of this, but we don't know how many major houses are included.

The TV series is another thing completely. In the book Lady Olenna conspires with Littlefinger, not Varys. However, its likely that Varys will reach out to her as Aegon grows in power. Willas is the heir and future of House Tyrell. She must look to him even if it means abandoning Mace and Margaery, though she will avoid this at all cost.

[Melisandre's Shadow]

Getting back to Olenna, I personnaly think that she's the "Friend from the Reach" that Jon was talking about. In the HBO series she has a lot of dialogues with Varys, what may mean that she knows about his plan and the coming of the new Targaryen heir. If it wasn't Varys that told it to her, she is intelligent enought to deduce this, and might have some informants to tell her about the secret mettings of the spider and Tyrion's trip

I never even thought about DB+Dave hinting at that, I just thought they loved the actress that plays Olenna and wanted to give her more face time. Olenna as the friend in the Reach is an interesting possibility, but as I mentioned way back on page 1 I think there's more foreshadowing that Tarly might be one of the friends in the Reach. Personally, since I love the QoT, I'm hoping she sees how sketch Aegon popping up would be seen, and is holding out for real dragons to land before switching sides. Plus this would keep them from another shaky alliance with an arrogant boy, a company of sellswords, and their rivals in Dorne.

Many people argue that the Tyrell's will hold on for dear life, but I think there has been too much foreshadowing of the Roses and Lions separating.

[Melisandre's Shadow]

Lady Olenna is a different story. Her sole objective if the survival and prosperity of House Tyrell. If she sees things going badly she will act without question. If she judges Aegon to be the proper course, she will most certainly move to kill Tommen and keep Mace from making more of a mess of things. The question is whether she will work with or against Nym and the Dornish?

Agreed but it would seem easier for her if Mace went along with the plan. I mean I think Mace is really drunk on power and was stupid to begin with so he could endup driving Tyrell's into the ground.

On a different note what if Olenna wants to jump ship on the Lannister alliance and doesn't choose Aegon. She could be skeptical about Aegon's true nature and even more skeptical of sellswords and Dorne, so if the doesn't have the option of waiting on Dany to arrive is it possible that she starts scheming with LF again and the Vale and the Reach join forces? A little crackpot but the relationship of scheming is already established, and theyre two of the most powerful armies in Westeros right meow.

[HodorForKing]

if it comes to it, who do you think that the tyrell's bannermen will obey: Olenna or Mace? Willas or Mace? I think that's a hard question because Mace is their rightful lord, but everyone knows that the true mind behind him is Olenna, and if they get in conflict they need to choose betwenn their word and their good...

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

if it comes to it, who do you think that the tyrell's bannermen will obey: Olenna or Mace? Willas or Mace? I think that's a hard question because Mace is their rightful lord, but everyone knows that the true mind behind him is Olenna, and if they get in conflict they need to choose betwenn their word and their good...

Mace Tyrell is the Lord of Highgarden, Warden of the South, Hight Marshall of the Reach, and Hand of the King. He has been so for many years now. His men will obey him and Willas as a good son would never challenge his father in such a way.

The key is to take certain decisions out of Mace's hand. Thats were Lady Olenna comes in. She can and will take matters into her own hands through her agents.

[Lord Damian]

In the end, most bannerman, as we have found out, will disobey their leige lord for the winning side at the drop of a dime if they feel that their leige is on the inevitably loosing side. I believe the Reach lords are no different. Add to that there is no doubt some Reach lords that would welcome the news (fake or not) that Rheagar's son, Aegon was alive (fake or not) and would jump ship in a heart beat. Also, Mace Tyrell might try and get Margeary in his bed if he could or Lady Oleanna might advise the same but there is several obstacles to that, 1- Arrianne Martell, 2- Ironborn Invasion of the Reach, 3- Margeary has a "court - date" on her callendar.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

In the end, most bannerman, as we have found out, will disobey their leige lord for the winning side at the drop of a dime if they feel that their leige is on the inevitably loosing side. I believe the Reach lords are no different. Add to that there is no doubt some Reach lords that would welcome the news (fake or not) that Rheagar's son, Aegon was alive (fake or not) and would jump ship in a heart beat. Also, Mace Tyrell might try and get Margeary in his bed if he could or Lady Oleanna might advise the same but there is several obstacles to that, 1- Arrianne Martell, 2- Ironborn Invasion of the Reach, 3- Margeary has a "court - date" on her callendar.

1. Dorne will likely join, regardless of any personal relationship with Arianne. In the spoiler chapters her plan is seduce Jon Connington and not Aegon. She has surmised that Lord Jon as Hand of the King is likely calling all of the shots.

2. Willas and Garlan, along with the Hightowers have more than enough men to deal with Euron. The Redwyne fleet, with its 200 warships and 1000 support vessels are on their way to the Reach to pick up the ground forces and begin removing the ironmen. The Iron Fleet is half a world away and down to forty or so ships. Without the warships of the Iron Fleet, Euron has no chance against the coming storm.

3. The High Septon has already admitted that the evidence against Margaery is weak at best. She is being tried by the Faith and her trial is little more than a formality.

[tbc]

Remember, Euron is right near Highgarden. I think Euron, instead of taking on the full might of the Tyrell army, will draw them out, then ride up and take Highgarden. Willas and Olenna are there, so they would either be executed or thrown in a dungeon. I believe they would kill Olenna as a message, and keep Willas as a hostage.

That's not happening. Raiding the Arbor and trying to take the lightly defended Old Town is very, very different from trying to storm Highgarden. Willas and Olenna aren't stupid enough to be drawn out and leave Highgarden undefended. And Euron has nowhere near enough men to storm a castle which is said to be similar in strength to Winterfell and Storms End. And that's assuming that Euron is still near the Reach.

My guess is that her and Willas will rendezvous with Randall Tarly and declare Highgarden for Aegon.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

That's not happening. Raiding the Arbor and trying to take the lightly defended Old Town is very, very different from trying to storm Highgarden. Willas and Olenna aren't stupid enough to be drawn out and leave Highgarden undefended. And Euron has nowhere near enough men to storm a castle which is said to be similar in strength to Winterfell and Storms End. And that's assuming that Euron is still near the Reach.

My guess is that her and Willas will rendezvous with Randall Tarly and declare Highgarden for Aegon.

A few points:

1. Oldtown is not lightly defended. The Hightowers are believed to be able to muster at least 16,000 men. They will have many more if they muster Oldtown itself. So far, they have crushed any attempt by the ironmen to enter the city, The ironmen could never hold it. The most they could do is wreak serious havoc and further damage the economy of the realm.

2. Highgarden's strength and specifications have not been mentioned anywhere that I have seen. If you can point me to where it says the castle is similar in strength to Storm's End, I would be greatful.

3. I agree that an attack on Highgarden is ridiculous. Mace mustered and left 10,000 men at the castle. It would take every longship and man that Euron has left to sail up the Mander and siege the castle. By that time the Redwyne fleet will have taken on the ground troops provided by Garlan and the Hightowers, and then blockade the Mander, leaving Euron trapped between a rock and hard place. Euron is too smart for this to happen.

4. Willas and Lady Olenna are not leaving the safety of Highgarden to enter the Stormlands. At best, they will send an envoy to invite Aegon or his representative to visit Highgarden for negotiations.

[tbc]

A few points:

1. Oldtown is not lightly defended. The Hightowers are believed to be able to muster at least 16,000 men. They will have many more if they muster Oldtown itself. So far, they have crushed any attempt by the ironmen to enter the city, The ironmen could never hold it. The most they could do is wreak serious havoc and further damage the economy of the realm.

2. Highgarden's strength and specifications have not been mentioned anywhere that I have seen. If you can point me to where it says the castle is similar in strength to Storm's End, I would be greatful.

3. I agree that an attack on Highgarden is ridiculous. Mace mustered and left 10,000 men at the castle. It would take every longship and man that Euron has left to sail up the Mander and siege the castle. By that time the Redwyne fleet will have taken on the ground troops provided by Garlan and the Hightowers, and then blockade the Mander, leaving Euron trapped between a rock and hard place. Euron is too smart for this to happen.

4. Willas and Lady Olenna are not leaving the safety of Highgarden to enter the Stormlands. At best, they will send an envoy to invite Aegon or his representative to visit Highgarden for negotiations.

1: Fair point. My mistake (although I've no idea what's going on with the Hightowers).

2: It's a castle from the Age of Heroes, which needs thousands of men to garrison properly. It's a fair conclusion, therefore, that it's comparable in strength to other Age of Heroes castles.

3: Bingo. Euron is essentially an opportunist, and there are far easier targets on the West coast than either sailing up the Mander, or Old Town. If he's still in the area, Lannisport is a much easier target, given that the Lannister armies are in the Riverlands (Daven has the army Steffan previously led which fell back to Lannisport at Riverrun), they don't have any sort of fleet, and the entire city is on the coast

4: Olenna, I sort of agree with. She's not going to go on campaign, definitely. Not sure about Willas though. And there's the problem of Margaery: if she dies, the Tyrells have nothing to hold them to the Lannisters, and no real advantage to staying with them.

The basic problem is that nobody considers the Dornish armies in the Boneway and Prince's Pass. If Dorne declares for Aegon (and it will), Aegon will have tens of thousands of Dornishmen, and the GC, able to march into the Reach unopposed. Treating with Aegon, as an equal, will be a necessity.

The romantic in me can't help but notice how conveniently Summerhall sits between Highgarden and Storm's End. A treaty signed there would be excellent.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

1: Fair point. My mistake (although I've no idea what's going on with the Hightowers).

2: It's a castle from the Age of Heroes, which needs thousands of men to garrison properly. It's a fair conclusion, therefore, that it's comparable in strength to other Age of Heroes castles.

3: Bingo. Euron is essentially an opportunist, and there are far easier targets on the West coast than either sailing up the Mander, or Old Town. If he's still in the area, Lannisport is a much easier target, given that the Lannister armies are in the Riverlands (Daven has the army Steffan previously led which fell back to Lannisport at Riverrun), they don't have any sort of fleet, and the entire city is on the coast

4: Olenna, I sort of agree with. She's not going to go on campaign, definitely. Not sure about Willas though. And there's the problem of Margaery: if she dies, the Tyrells have nothing to hold them to the Lannisters, and no real advantage to staying with them.

The basic problem is that nobody considers the Dornish armies in the Boneway and Prince's Pass. If Dorne declares for Aegon (and it will), Aegon will have tens of thousands of Dornishmen, and the GC, able to march into the Reach unopposed. Treating with Aegon, as an equal, will be a necessity.

The romantic in me can't help but notice how conveniently Summerhall sits between Highgarden and Storm's End. A treaty signed there would be excellent.

2. Cannot agree with you hear. The stronger a castle, the less men you need behind its walls. Theon tells us that a castle as strong as Winterfell does not need thousands of troops to hold it. Winterfell has a normal garrison of 600 men. Ser Rodrik fell for Theon's trick and left the castle relatively undefended.

The Dreadfort is also strong castle that held out against the the Starks for two years before falling. Roose Bolton only keeps a garrison of 600.

Storm's End is considered the strongest castle in the realm, along with Casterly Rock. Both Renly and Stannis left small contingents of troops to hold the castle.

You could be right about Highgarden's strength, but I just cannot speculate until I know more. Its presented as a flowery keep, with pleasure barges, singers, and poets all about. It does not sound as strong and menacing as other castles we have read about.

4. Willas is crippled and commanding Reach in his father's stead. If Willas is as smart as we are lead to believe he is, he will not abandon his post with threat like the ironborn lingering about.

If Margaery dies and Loras dies from his wounds (real or not), and with Garlan going to fight the ironmen, the need to keep Willas safe becomes paramount.

Everyone has accounted for the Dornish army. The problem is that no one believes it will join the fighting. The Martells have stayed out of it thus far, and no one sees any reason for them to join the fighting, except for Kevan Lannister. Ser Kevan saw the danger of Dorne joining Aegon and warned against Mace insulting the Dornish.

[tbc]

2. Cannot agree with you hear. The stronger a castle, the less men you need behind its walls. Theon tells us that a castle as strong as Winterfell does not need thousands of troops to hold it. Winterfell has a normal garrison of 600 men. Ser Rodrik fell for Theon's trick and left the castle relatively undefended.

The Dreadfort is also strong castle that held out against the the Starks for two years before falling. Roose Bolton only keeps a garrison of 600.

Storm's End is considered the strongest castle in the realm, along with Casterly Rock. Both Renly and Stannis left small contingents of troops to hold the castle.

You could be right about Highgarden's strength, but I just cannot speculate until I know more. Its presented as a flowery keep, with pleasure barges, singers, and poets all about. It does not sound as strong and menacing as other castles we have read about.

4. Willas is crippled and commanding Reach in his father's stead. If Willas is as smart as we are lead to believe he is, he will not abandon his post with threat like the ironborn lingering about.

If Margaery dies and Loras dies from his wounds (real or not), and with Garlan going to fight the ironmen, the need to keep Willas safe becomes paramount.

Everyone has accounted for the Dornish army. The problem is that no one believes it will join the fighting. The Martells have stayed out of it thus far, and no one sees any reason for them to join the fighting, except for Kevan Lannister. Ser Kevan saw the danger of Dorne joining Aegon and warned against Mace insulting the Dornish.

2: With Highgarden, there's another interpretation for the need for a large garrison: it's huge (and that Mace left the army as much for the Reach as for Highgarden itself). The Dreadfort and Winterfell are small because the North has comparitively fewer inhabitants, and they're more defensible because the North is a bloody unpleasant place to try and besiege a castle. Ditto, the Storm Lands aren't as prosperous and populous as the Reach. You need larger castles, and larger garrisons, for larger populations.

And my reading of the "chivalric love" colour people put on Highgarden is the same as that which is put on the Tyrells. It's a myth, generated by the prosperity, sunny and warm weather, and chivalric culture. As we've seen with the Tyrells, behind the flowers and smiles there's real steel and strength (that said, I'd still rather live in Highgarden than anywhere else, it does sound beautiful).

4: You may be right about Willas. It all depends on what Euron does, and where he is.

But I don't buy the point about the Dornish armies. Doran is incredibly cautious, he wouldn't have mustered armies if he didn't anticipate having to use them: in which case, they must be for offensive use. The Boneway and Prince's Pass could be held through the fortifications at Yronwood and Seareach, with much smaller garrisons. And given that Doran's two primary ambitions are to restore the Targaryens, and ruin the Lannisters, Aegon will be an opportunity he can't pass up (notwithstanding the possibility of Darkstar or somebody else leading an invasion by themselves).

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

2: With Highgarden, there's another interpretation for the need for a large garrison: it's huge (and that Mace left the army as much for the Reach as for Highgarden itself). The Dreadfort and Winterfell are small because the North has comparitively fewer inhabitants, and they're more defensible because the North is a bloody unpleasant place to try and besiege a castle. Ditto, the Storm Lands aren't as prosperous and populous as the Reach. You need larger castles, and larger garrisons, for larger populations.

And my reading of the "chivalric love" colour people put on Highgarden is the same as that which is put on the Tyrells. It's a myth, generated by the prosperity, sunny and warm weather, and chivalric culture. As we've seen with the Tyrells, behind the flowers and smiles there's real steel and strength (that said, I'd still rather live in Highgarden than anywhere else, it does sound beautiful).

4: You may be right about Willas. It all depends on what Euron does, and where he is.

But I don't buy the point about the Dornish armies. Doran is incredibly cautious, he wouldn't have mustered armies if he didn't anticipate having to use them: in which case, they must be for offensive use. The Boneway and Prince's Pass could be held through the fortifications at Yronwood and Seareach, with much smaller garrisons. And given that Doran's two primary ambitions are to restore the Targaryens, and ruin the Lannisters, Aegon will be an opportunity he can't pass up (notwithstanding the possibility of Darkstar or somebody else leading an invasion by themselves).

1. The 10,000 men were definitely for the Reach itself. I'm sure Highgarden keeps a normal garrison like Winterfell and the Dreadfort. My point is that we don't know the layout and specifications of Highgarden, like we know that of Winterfell, Storm's End, Casterly Rock, Riverrun, and the Dreadfort. Without that knowledge I cannot and will not judge how strong Highgarden is.

Being that it is the Capital of the Reach and has been for thousands of years, it can be speculated that it is indeed a strong keep. It sits along the Mander and likely has been under threat from Ironborn for thousands of years and has never fallen to our knowledge. However, we don't know for sure.

2. I was speaking as to what the rest of the realm knows and thinks. No one except for Kevan has foreseen the Martells on the move. Everyone else feels like they have thrown their lot in with the Lannisters and Tyrells.

In ACOK, Doran called his banners and fortified the Boneway and Prince's Pass, but took no part. Why would they need to, except for self-defense. They hate the Lannisters, Baratheons, and Tyrells. The Starks and Tullys both were instrumental in the fall of House Targaryen and the deaths of Elia and her children. Dorne fought them all on the Trident. Furthermore, its not like the winner would ever be stupid enough to invade Dorne.

The Dornish are deadly on their own territory. The "Young Dragon" lost 10,000 men invading Dorne and 50,000 men trying to hold it.

[ReekGreyjoy]

1. The 10,000 men were definitely for the Reach itself. I'm sure Highgarden keeps a normal garrison like Winterfell and the Dreadfort. My point is that we don't know the layout and specifications of Highgarden, like we know that of Winterfell, Storm's End, Casterly Rock, Riverrun, and the Dreadfort. Without that knowledge I cannot and will not judge how strong Highgarden is.

Being that it is the Capital of the Reach and has been for thousands of years, it can be speculated that it is indeed a strong keep. It sits along the Mander and likely has been under threat from Ironborn for thousands of years and has never fallen to our knowledge. However, we don't know for sure.

2. I was speaking as to what the rest of the realm knows and thinks. No one except for Kevan has foreseen the Martells on the move. Everyone else feels like they have thrown their lot in with the Lannisters and Tyrells.

In ACOK, Doran called his banners and fortified the Boneway and Prince's Pass, but took no part. Why would they need to, except for self-defense. They hate the Lannisters, Baratheons, and Tyrells. The Starks and Tullys both were instrumental in the fall of House Targaryen and the deaths of Elia and her children. Dorne fought them all on the Trident. Furthermore, its not like the winner would ever be stupid enough to invade Dorne.

The Dornish are deadly on their own territory. The "Young Dragon" lost 10,000 men invading Dorne and 50,000 men trying to hold it.

Winterfell is a smaller castle. We know that from Jon Snow, I think, when he was describing it to Ygritte. Unless I'm thinking of Samwell Tarly describing Castle Black to Gilly? I forget. Anyway, assuming it's smaller/more defensible with fewer troops (these go hand in hand), and knowing that Highgarden/the Tyrells command a much larger force than the North, it's reasonable to guess Highgarden would take a few thousand to garrison (=a few times 600). It's fair to say Highgarden is able to last a long seige, as it's described as so fertile. So combining those two things and adding to it the knowledge of Winterfell falling and there's no chance of Highgarden suffering the same.

Olenna Redwyne will possibly be involved in disposing of Tommen summarily after the wedding and then getting Margaery a new partner in Aegon after Randyll Tarly is ambushed by the elephants and (small) Dornish contingent. Aegon's force will be bloodied but not bare-boned and Mace never liked Tarly anyway.

[tbc]

Winterfell is a smaller castle. We know that from Jon Snow, I think, when he was describing it to Ygritte. Unless I'm thinking of Samwell Tarly describing Castle Black to Gilly? I forget. Anyway, assuming it's smaller/more defensible with fewer troops (these go hand in hand), and knowing that Highgarden/the Tyrells command a much larger force than the North, it's reasonable to guess Highgarden would take a few thousand to garrison (=a few times 600). It's fair to say Highgarden is able to last a long seige, as it's described as so fertile. So combining those two things and adding to it the knowledge of Winterfell falling and there's no chance of Highgarden suffering the same.

Olenna Redwyne will possibly be involved in disposing of Tommen summarily after the wedding and then getting Margaery a new partner in Aegon after Randyll Tarly is ambushed by the elephants and (small) Dornish contingent. Aegon's force will be bloodied but not bare-boned and Mace never liked Tarly anyway.

I've always thought Tyene and her poisons would be the death of Tommen.

[ReekGreyjoy]

I've always thought Tyene and her poisons would be the death of Tommen.

I guess that's possible. But remember, there's a King's Guard taste-testing everything that goes into Tommen's mouth. A poisoning would have to involve a slow-acting poison with no effects until about fifteen minutes after ingestion. That's not a problem actually for Tyene I suppose. The real issue is, how is Tyene going to get close to Tommen's food if she's busy getting close to the High Septon? She could be Tommen's Septa but even Cersei is not stupid enough to hire a Dornishwoman for a Septa, lol. She was horrified at the thought of some Dornishman teching Joffrey his arms.

Olenna, meanwhile, has her contacts and her close position already.