What will be Olenna Redwyne's role in TWOW

[HodorForKing]

Interesting theory for how Tommen gets offed. We know Tyene is joining the Faith, so she might be able to influence the trial enough to get Marg to lose. It would certainly make things more interesting as the Faith Militant would abandon Tommen and go straight to Aegon, lending further influence to him. It's open as to whether Marg would live or not, but it wouldn't really matter unless Loras is dead/ dies soon and Garlan or Willas somehow dies. The High Septon states that Marg will be tried by representatives of the gods (is it all 7 or just the Crone, Maiden, and Mother?) If it is all 7 gods, then it will be to change the outcome, but Tyene could work some havoc with just 3 judges. I saw Cersei's tale of the smith who crafted things so well that the High Septon named him hand for being the reincarnation of the Smith to foreshadow the same thing happening with Tyene and the maiden.

First off, I don't think she will lose. She is being tried by the Faith and the High Septon has already admitted that the evidence against her is extremely weak. She is being tried as a mere formality.

However, should GRRM see fit for her to lose and Mace attacks, it will be hell unleashed. The High Septon and his followers will rebel and the streets will run red with blood. Mace will have to declare marshall law. When the Tyrell invasion force is defeated and if Olenna gets wind of this, she will absolutely act. She will have an agent take care of Tommen.

Supposing that the Tyrells and the Faith militant starts a war in KL, it would be more then a good opening for Aegon to take his capital back. In the middle of the bloodshed a new king with a powerful claim and army comes to KL to reclaim his throne... Probably both the Faith (because of Tyene) and the Tyrells (because of Olenna) would try to join the newcoming Targ, making his army even stronger. By that time Tommen and Myrcella would be probably killed either by Olenna's agents or Lady Nym, while Cersei would be dead or far away in Casterly Rock. the only problem would be the Faith/Dornish conflict with the Tyrells... I really can't see these two joining forces after those hypothetical results of Margaery's trial, but, If she's still alive Aegon can apply the King justice to acquit her and make the Reach Lords his allies; just as the church, considering that the High Sparrow will recognize him as the rightful king, either under Tyene's influence or not; and the Dornish. With that the Lannisters would have no king left to crown, and would be just some rebelled armies with no one to fight for. It would be a good twist, but it all depends on Margaery's and Cersei's trials results and I still think that the "new sack of KL" one is more probable (and cool).

PS: sry for the bad english

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Supposing that the Tyrells and the Faith militant starts a war in KL, it would be more then a good opening for Aegon to take his capital back. In the middle of the bloodshed a new king with a powerful claim and army comes to KL to reclaim his throne... Probably both the Faith (because of Tyene) and the Tyrells (because of Olenna) would try to join the newcoming Targ, making his army even stronger. By that time Tommen and Myrcella would be probably killed either by Olenna's agents or Lady Nym, while Cersei would be dead or far away in Casterly Rock. the only problem would be the Faith/Dornish conflict with the Tyrells... I really can't see these two joining forces after those hypothetical results of Margaery's trial, but, If she's still alive Aegon can apply the King justice to acquit her and make the Reach Lords his allies; just as the church, considering that the High Sparrow will recognize him as the rightful king, either under Tyene's influence or not; and the Dornish. With that the Lannisters would have no king left to crown, and would be just some rebelled armies with no one to fight for. It would be a good twist, but it all depends on Margaery's and Cersei's trials results and I still think that the "new sack of KL" one is more probable (and cool).

PS: sry for the bad english

I expect Aegon to be sitting the iron throne by the end of the book, with the Stormlands, Reach, Dorne, Crownlands, Riverlands, and possibly the Vale behind untied behind him. By the time Dany arrives, Aegon will be holding a strong hand indeed.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I expect Aegon to be sitting the iron throne by the end of the book, with the Stormlands, Reach, Dorne, Crownlands, Riverlands, and possibly the Vale behind untied behind him. By the time Dany arrives, Aegon will be holding a strong hand indeed.

The Vale is the prime landing area for Dany. I agree Aegon will have Dorne and half the Reach strongly backing him, with the riverlands, stormlands, and vale giving him lip service, and the north defying him under Jon to better combat the Others. I expect Aegon to have about 25,000 Dornishmen, 30,000 Reachmen, no Stormmen unless drafted, no Valemen, no Rivermen, no Northernmen, and no Westernmen, plus 6-7,000 of the Golden Company, and if he's lucky, 40,000 Faith Militant. So, in total, about 100,000 men. This will be a dance of dragons, and it will be getting bloody.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

The Vale is the prime landing area for Dany. I agree Aegon will have Dorne and half the Reach strongly backing him, with the riverlands, stormlands, and vale giving him lip service, and the north defying him under Jon to better combat the Others. I expect Aegon to have about 25,000 Dornishmen, 30,000 Reachmen, no Stormmen unless drafted, no Valemen, no Rivermen, no Northernmen, and no Westernmen, plus 6-7,000 of the Golden Company, and if he's lucky, 40,000 Faith Militant. So, in total, about 100,000 men. This will be a dance of dragons, and it will be getting bloody.

Just a few points:

1. Add an additional 20,000 from the Crownlands (Cracklaw Point will lead the way)

2. With the taking of Sorm's End and the defeat of the Tyrell invasion force, the Stormlands will rally. With the Reach and Dorne onboard, the Marcher Lords will be free to add their 10,000 - 12,000 troops. The other lords will come together and add an additional 5,000 to 7,000 troops.

3. I expect the Reach to be unified by the time Dany lands. Assuming Euron is beaten, the Hightowers, Redwynes, and the rest can add much more than 30,000.

4. The Riverlands want freedom from the Lannisters/Freys. Aegon's victories will be a signal for them to rebel once again. I can see them making peace with Aegon. Whether they provide troops is debatable.

I would say, throw in an additional 40,000 - 50,000 troops or so for Aegon. Lets say a total of 150,000 at least.

Assuming you are right about the Vale and everything else, that would give Dany 40,000 Vale troops, 12,000 unsullied, 40,000 Dothraki, 4,000 ironmen, 10,000 mercenaries, 5000 of her warriors from Meereen, and three dragons. Lets say 111,000 or so troops and three dragons.

Furthermore, lets say Dany refuses to use dragons to spare the people of King's Landing and other small folk. It would be one hell of a dance indeed.

[tbc]

The Vale is the prime landing area for Dany. I agree Aegon will have Dorne and half the Reach strongly backing him, with the riverlands, stormlands, and vale giving him lip service, and the north defying him under Jon to better combat the Others. I expect Aegon to have about 25,000 Dornishmen, 30,000 Reachmen, no Stormmen unless drafted, no Valemen, no Rivermen, no Northernmen, and no Westernmen, plus 6-7,000 of the Golden Company, and if he's lucky, 40,000 Faith Militant. So, in total, about 100,000 men. This will be a dance of dragons, and it will be getting bloody.

I don't see why. Even if she goes to Pentos, as has been heavily hinted at, that's only equilateral with the Stormlands, so she'd need to sail a significant army north. Landing in the Vale would make sense geographically if she were in Braavos, but otherwise it's a long way to go.

And it's a bugger of a place to move an army around and out of. It's very mountainous, the Vale has never been a Targaryen friendly area, and she could be bottled up there were an army to garrison the Bloody Gate against her.

Also, Dany's war, assuming she ever makes it to Westeros, will be fought and won in the south. She needs to take KL, there are Targ loyalists in the Crownlands and Dorne, and other major Targ sites (of emotional and symbolic importance) at Summerhall and Dragonstone. Landing in the Vale puts her north of the Trident, and so to then march south would require to her try and force a crossing of the Trident against whichever of the Lannister and Tyrrell armies are defending it. Landing in the south, by contrast, puts her in far friendlier territory

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I don't see why. Even if she goes to Pentos, as has been heavily hinted at, that's only equilateral with the Stormlands, so she'd need to sail a significant army north. Landing in the Vale would make sense geographically if she were in Braavos, but otherwise it's a long way to go.

And it's a bugger of a place to move an army around and out of. It's very mountainous, the Vale has never been a Targaryen friendly area, and she could be bottled up there were an army to garrison the Bloody Gate against her.

Also, Dany's war, assuming she ever makes it to Westeros, will be fought and won in the south. She needs to take KL, there are Targ loyalists in the Crownlands and Dorne, and other major Targ sites (of emotional and symbolic importance) at Summerhall and Dragonstone. Landing in the Vale puts her north of the Trident, and so to then march south would require to her try and force a crossing of the Trident against whichever of the Lannister and Tyrrell armies are defending it. Landing in the south, by contrast, puts her in far friendlier territory

Well, lets take a look at all her possible landing places. Anything on the westside is far too long of a journey, and doesn't hold any purpose.

White Harbor: Too far north in the winter

Dorne: Held by Aegon

Stormlands: Held by Aegon

Gulltown: Giving lip service to Aegon, but a prime target nonetheless, and if she can convince the Vale lords to join her (Sansa and Tyrion meet again hint hint) that's another 40,000 men to Dany. It also places her in a prime position to control the top half of the Riverlands, gain access to Moat Cailin to assualt the north if she wishes, give her pretty good access to the Golden Tooth, which keeps Tyrion invested in the conflict, and if Aegon decides to confront her, she has the Trident in his way, and the same fords Edmure used. Dragonstone is also on the way to the Vale, and she would take it for obvious symbolic reasons. It places her in a good position to keep her holdings in the south if she goes north to fight the Others

[tbc]

Well, lets take a look at all her possible landing places. Anything on the westside is far too long of a journey, and doesn't hold any purpose.

White Harbor: Too far north in the winter

Dorne: Held by Aegon

Stormlands: Held by Aegon

Gulltown: Giving lip service to Aegon, but a prime target nonetheless, and if she can convince the Vale lords to join her (Sansa and Tyrion meet again hint hint) that's another 40,000 men to Dany. It also places her in a prime position to control the top half of the Riverlands, gain access to Moat Cailin to assualt the north if she wishes, give her pretty good access to the Golden Tooth, which keeps Tyrion invested in the conflict, and if Aegon decides to confront her, she has the Trident in his way, and the same fords Edmure used. Dragonstone is also on the way to the Vale, and she would take it for obvious symbolic reasons. It places her in a good position to keep her holdings in the south if she goes north to fight the Others

Firstly, why will Dany be immediately hostile towards, or wary of, Aegon? Assuming she has Tyrion with her when landing, he'll be counselling her to at least try and find a modus vivendi with him.

Secondly, you've omitted the crownlands, which are a fairly natural target.

Thirdly, one does not land an invading army in a port or city. One lands them on open ground and pitches camp. Gulltown and White Harbour make no sense, at all.

Fourthly, you haven't addressed the reasons why the Vale is a terrible, terrible place to use as a launchpad for an invasion that I raised.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

And it's a bugger of a place to move an army around and out of. It's very mountainous, the Vale has never been a Targaryen friendly area, and she could be bottled up there were an army to garrison the Bloody Gate against her.

Also, Dany's war, assuming she ever makes it to Westeros, will be fought and won in the south. She needs to take KL, there are Targ loyalists in the Crownlands and Dorne, and other major Targ sites (of emotional and symbolic importance) at Summerhall and Dragonstone. Landing in the Vale puts her north of the Trident, and so to then march south would require to her try and force a crossing of the Trident against whichever of the Lannister and Tyrrell armies are defending it. Landing in the south, by contrast, puts her in far friendlier territory

1. Every region below the Neck is considered the south. There is only one North.

2. The Vale fought sea battles against House Targaryen during the conquest, but every region fought the Targaryens during the conquest. The Vale stayed loyal for 300 hundreds until Robert's Rebellion. During the rebellion, half the Vale stayed loyal to Aerys, including Gulltown. A civil war was fought in the Vale before Jon Arryn could even march. As a result he never was able muster his full strength into the war.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Firstly, why will Dany be immediately hostile towards, or wary of, Aegon?

This is the main question. This particular debate depends on the premise that Dany and Aegon will be immediately at war. Its most likely that they will not be. The Dance of the Dragons will begin due to some key event....say the dragons sniffing out Aegon. Additionally, Jon Connington is still hoping to marry Aegon to Dany.

[tbc]

1. Every region below the Neck is considered the south. There is only one North.

2. The Vale fought sea battles against House Targaryen during the conquest, but every region fought the Targaryens during the conquest. The Vale stayed loyal for 300 hundreds until Robert's Rebellion. During the rebellion, half the Vale stayed loyal to Aerys, including Gulltown. A civil war was fought in the Vale before Jon Arryn could even march. As a result he never was able muster his full strength into the war.

Which also means that half of the Vale didn't support the Targaryens.

And again, it's almost impossible to land an army of tens of thousands in a city.

And all of this is notwithstanding Littlefinger's intrigues, and the possibility that the armies of the Vale might have already marched into the Riverlands or the North.

[tbc]

This is the main question. This particular debate depends on the premise that Dany and Aegon will be immediately at war. Its most likely that they will not be. The Dance of the Dragons will begin due to some key event....say the dragons sniffing out Aegon. Additionally, Jon Connington is still hoping to marry Aegon to Dany.

Which is why, when she lands, the crown and stormlands make much more sense.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Which also means that half of the Vale didn't support the Targaryens.

And again, it's almost impossible to land an army of tens of thousands in a city.

And all of this is notwithstanding Littlefinger's intrigues, and the possibility that the armies of the Vale might have already marched into the Riverlands or the North.

If the Graftons and much of the Vale are still Targaryen loyalists in some way, it will make perfect sense Dany.

Take a look at the ASOIAF map and you will see that the large peninsula that Gulltown is situated on is controlled by the House Grafton and House Royce. A possible Targaryen loyalist and an enemy of Littlefinger. Dany may be just what the doctor ordered for both houses.

As to landing in Gulltown....it should not be much of a problem. Dany's massive army can move through the town and settle on the peninsula outside of the city.

[tbc]

If the Graftons and much of the Vale are still Targaryen loyalists in some way, it will make perfect sense Dany.

Take a look at the ASOIAF map and you will see that the large peninsula that Gulltown is situated on is controlled by the House Grafton and House Royce. A possible Targaryen loyalist and an enemy of Littlefinger. Dany may be just what the doctor ordered for both houses.

As to landing in Gulltown....it should not be much of a problem. Dany's massive army can move through the town and settle on the peninsula outside of the city.

If she's looking for a friendly landing, and assuming that Aegon was won, landing in the crownlands, stormlands or even the Dornish marches makes far more sense.

There's also a problem of timing: events in the Vale will be moving from the start of TWoW. Dany can't, at the fastest, hope to get there with an army until the end.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

If she's looking for a friendly landing, and assuming that Aegon was won, landing in the crownlands, stormlands or even the Dornish marches makes far more sense.

There's also a problem of timing: events in the Vale will be moving from the start of TWoW. Dany can't, at the fastest, hope to get there with an army until the end.

1. Depending on what becomes of Doran when he hears about Quentyn, and how he was rejected for a sell sword, Dorne may not be an option.

2. Aegon may not be hostile towards Dany, but he and Connington will be wary of allowing a huge army to land in Westeros.

3. It does not matter what the outcome of the Vale is, the winner will have a stake in allowing Dany to land.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Firstly, why will Dany be immediately hostile towards, or wary of, Aegon? Assuming she has Tyrion with her when landing, he'll be counselling her to at least try and find a modus vivendi with him.

Secondly, you've omitted the crownlands, which are a fairly natural target.

Thirdly, one does not land an invading army in a port or city. One lands them on open ground and pitches camp. Gulltown and White Harbour make no sense, at all.

Fourthly, you haven't addressed the reasons why the Vale is a terrible, terrible place to use as a launchpad for an invasion that I raised.

1. Stallion wrapped this bit up nicely with them being neutral until something happens.

2. The crownlands only has one port and that's King's Landing. The rest is more attempting to land in the middle of winter on unsettled land.

3. Not necessarily. Different tactics call for different measures. You could also camp OUTSIDE the city. That provides a large amount of protection in friendly territory.

4. The Vale is extremely hard to enter. They would need to go through the bloody gate, and with an army as large as Dany's she gains a large chunk of Westeros in a defensible area with a large army in a place deemed pacified by all people. Gulltown was a huge Targ supporter in Robert's Rebellion, and fought the rest of the Vale for them. They will accept Dany with open arms.

[HodorForKing]

This is the main question. This particular debate depends on the premise that Dany and Aegon will be immediately at war. Its most likely that they will not be. The Dance of the Dragons will begin due to some key event....say the dragons sniffing out Aegon. Additionally, Jon Connington is still hoping to marry Aegon to Dany.

Either way, both Euron and Stannis will have a hell of a problem...

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Either way, both Euron and Stannis will have a hell of a problem...

Both Stannis and Euron both have their hands full:

1. Stannis has to beat off the upcoming attack by Ramsay and the Freys. Then its on to the Battle of Winterfell. Then he has the mess as the Wall to clean. When all of that is done, the Others may begin their assault.

2. Euron is the most fascinating case to me. On paper he is in major trouble. Without the Iron Fleet or dragon power, he stands no chance against the redwyne fleet.

His 400-500 longships are just too small and ill equipped to handle the Redwyne warships. The wildcards are of course Euron being a tactical genius and the warlocks.

[TheRainingKnight]

The only possible way to defeat the Redwyne's fleet is to use the same tactic when he burned the Lannister navy in port. The Redwyne's need to make port soon, provisions etc. So that would make perfect opportunity to burn the fleet, also Euron would never win in a open engagement.

[Heyo Winter Comin']

The only possible way to defeat the Redwyne's fleet is to use the same tactic when he burned the Lannister navy in port. The Redwyne's need to make port soon, provisions etc. So that would make perfect opportunity to burn the fleet, also Euron would never win in a open engagement.

I dunno if that's the only possible way. It'd be a bit dull wouldn't it? I'd like to see Euron come up with some crazy as fuck plan and then see it work.

[Heyo Winter Comin']

I'd love to see Euron kill Olenna, to signify that all her games and schemes don't work on a guy like Euron. It'd be shocking in a really cool way, and seems very Ironborn.