Middle East/North Africa 12 - Armageddon Anyone?

[Shryke]

That's why I gave those examples, they were not outright and clearly supporting the green movement, and islamic republic usually doesn't like whining about its censorship and propaganda system being undermined in its own media, so they basically couldn't do anything about any of my examples other than becoming more intransigent towards the US.

They were though. Everything you gave was either completely impractical given the nature of the protests in Iran or was a big obvious "the US is supporting us" sign. Or both sometimes.

[sToNED_CAT]

Our proxy using them with the benefit of full knowledge of where to use them via US intelligence. So no, doesn't really make a difference.

Saddam wasn't US proxy. Govt considered him to be better choice, especially after whole hostage crisis and who could blame them? He received some help from US, but that was nothing compared to Russia, Gulf states or France. Not to mention the fact that Saddam's Iraq was acting too independently to be considered someone's proxy.

[Werthead]

Okay, Obama follows Cameron's example. And suddenly we're America's "closest ally" again.

I don't think anyone was expecting that.

[NoneofYourBiz]

I'm sure the polls influenced his decision. He should make his case to Congress, 80% of Americans are asking him to.

[Shryke]

There's some very careful wording being chosen there. The humanitarian argument may not be in the USA's direct political interests, but preventing the spread or repeated use of chemical weapons in a country where anti-American forces are operating is not?

Though it appears now that they're not actually going to do anything whatsoever about the chemical weapons, they're just going to bomb some random Syrian military shit and go home, which I agree does seem somewhat pointless.

I had heard the plan was to bomb the launch platforms and such for the chemical weapons, not the chemicals themselves. But who knows for sure.

[Shryke]

I didn't either. After Kerry's talk yesterday, I thought we were striking, end of story.

So now I'm really not sure what to think. I think there will be a split in both parties. The Rand Paul wing will be against while the John McCain wing will be for. Most Democrats will be for, I suspect, but there will be defectors.

I'm fairly certain it will pass Congress. There's enough Republicans on board and there's not many Democrats I think who feel strongly enough to undercut their own party's President on the issue.

[NoneofYourBiz]

I think Obama did what he thought was his best option after painting himself into a corner. After Cameron's defeat, creating an international coalition of, um, France, the U.N. unwilling to get behind it, and poll numbers not in his favor in the U.S. (even after Kerry's speech) he punted to Congress. This way if they give them the go ahead and it turns out badly he can say he had the backing of Congress, and if they vote him down, he can wring his hands and say that he wanted to act, but was thwarted by those obstructionist Republicans. He already laid the groundwork for this in his speech.

He blinked, that's the bottom line. I am glad that we are not, for the time being, intervening in Syria but unfortunately damage was still done. Obama wrote a check he was ultimately unwilling to cash, and has projected American weakness, which puts us in a very bad position. The Syrians are rejoicing and he looks like a tool. Putin is now on TV challenging the President to back up his claim that Assad used chemical weapons, and embarrassingly, is looking like more of a bad ass mofo leader than Obama. Obama put himself in a no win situation, but if he really was so convinced of the necessity of intervening, he would just do it and deal with the ramifications, or at the very least would call an immediate session of Congress. But no, no urgency here now, it doesn't matter if we send in Tomahawks today or 3 years from now.

I really think Obama really thought everyone was going to rally to his side and was stunned to find himself alone.

[NoneofYourBiz]

The more I think about this, the more I think it won't pass the House. The Tea Party influence is too strong. It's too good of a chance to embarrass Obama and maybe set the grounds for murkier legal territory that could lead to impeachment.

Or perhaps Obama hasn't laid out a convincing case for intervention. But of course, it's the Tea Party that's the problem. You so beautifully illustrate my point as to how Obama will handle this, and why he punted to Congress.

This is nonsense. He already said he believes he doesn't need Congressional approval, so why doesn't he just do it? He's not up for reelection. He won't do it because no one is behind it, and so the only thing left for him to do is blame Republicans.

[SilentSense]

Hope this hasn't been posted yet, quite sad how true it is:

http://s3.amazonaws....syria.png

[NoneofYourBiz]

That is fair, actually. I don't mean to say that the only reason to be against is to be anti-Obama. But I have a feeling it will pass the Senate but maybe not the House.

I am glad that you can see that. I think it is extremely unfair to blame anyone but Obama at this point. He hasn't presented any sort of case. After all, Republicans supposedly love war so they should be easy to convince right?

[NoneofYourBiz]

Just because the case isn't convincing to you doesn't mean no case has been presented.

Well yes, his case is that we should be so morally outraged we should intervene militarily with no strategy or end game, in a manner that accomplishes nothing (except allowing Obama to cash the check he wrote) ulitizing a military whose budget he has already severely cut. Who is convinced by that? We weren't even morally outraged enough to intervene to save 4 American lives in Benghazi.

[Tormund Ukrainesbane]

This might be a clever face-saving move from Obama. He realizes its' a terrible idea to go and it makes him look weak, so he punts to the house. I would not be surprised if the Chief of Staff is calling up all the anti-war Democrats in congress and telling them it's ok to vote against. We don't go, all the anti-war crowd get to look good to their base, Obama looks like a reasonable guy who would totally have kicked ass like he promised but got hamstrung by congress. Everyone wins.

If this is plan, it's a pretty clever bit of politics. If he's actually going to fight for it in the house, well then at least he's still paying lip service to the rule of law (and knows that the anti-war right was itching to draw up articles of impeachment)

[Free Northman]

Very disappointing turn of events. Obama looks weak, clueless and indecisive after this about turn. No US president should look so weak on the international stage.

Red Vlad the Impaler is having a good chuckle over in Moscow.