Is Aegon VI (the possible fake one) overrated?

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

I think many of the Reach lords under Tarly will declare for him.

[Veltigar]

1) We know that we are going to get a second dance of dragons. Faegon needs a couple of big wins and a lot of support if he even wants to stand a chance against Daenerys. I mean let’s face it if Faegon has not succeeded in claiming large parts of the south before dany and her dragons land than he can basically forget because everyone who’s doubting between claimants would go over to Dany in a heartbeat.

2) Faegon has one advantage that none of the other claimants have. He can recruit both from hidden Blackfyre loyalists as from Targaryen loyalists. We know there are plenty Targaryen loyalist left (those will probably be split between Dany and Faegon) but we also know that there are probably more than a few Blackfyre loyalists left. That line about still having friends in the Reach says it all. I think people really underestimate the lasting effect of the Blackfyre Rebellion. The Dance of Dragons might have caused a lot of dragons to die but I think the Blackfyre rebellion had a lot more lasting effect on the minds of the Westerosi nobility. I mean just look at how many Rebellions there were and how bloody they ended. There is no doubt in my mind that some Reach Lords and most notably Ser Randyll Tarly have not forgetten the Blackfyre Rebellion and they’ll rise for a descendant of Daemon.

3) You also underestimate the difficulty of a beach landing. The fact that they managed to get 5000 soldiers so close together in a region so famed for its storms is a little miracle. And I have no doubt what so ever that the unaccounted troops will pop up somewhere and amongst other things bring their elephants into play (Those elephants should be good for a profound advantage in at least one battle).

4) The Faith will come out and play. Stannis supports the Red God, Dany will be suspected of that one too, Euron follows the Drowned God, the Lannisters have a Queen born out of incest (Myrcella. Pretty sure that Tommen will be dead by then) + their matriarch had the previous HS murdered and if the GNC turns out to be true and they place Rickon on the Throne up North than he’ll follow the Old Gods.

Personally, I think that the Faith Militant itself will be all but wiped out after a fight between them and the Tyrells over the outcome of Margaery’s trial turns ugly (She will be convicted. Personally, I’m pretty sure that she is in fact guilty. But even if she’s not she has Varys, Cersei, the Sand Snakes, the HS and perhaps even LF out to spread chaos against her. They’ll all plot and she won’t be able to stop them). The Fath will run to Faegon and beg for his protection. Faegon will grant them that and thus the Dance 2.0. will become interesting because it will be Dany and the Dragons vs. Faegon and the Faith (great names for a band).

5) I’m pretty sure that the Tyrells will lose big time from the Ironborn. I mean the Ironborn are run by Euron fucking Greyjoy. Crowseye might be totally bonkers but he is a strategic mastermind and who knows how many tricks he has under his sleeve. The Redwyne fleet, Garlan’s army and every city (oldtown) or castle (highgarden) that lies close to the coast or along the riverbanks is toast imo.

[Dukhasinov]

As long as Margeary or Tomen are alive, the Tyrells are tied to the Iron Throne by marriage, and Mace will defend it to the best of his ability. That being said, much of the Tyrell strength is tied up in the Riverlands, and the Ironborn are bleeding the Reach dry. Don`t count on the Redwyns being able to dominate the Ironborn at sea; The Iron Fleet may be gone, but those were only the ships tied directly to the Seastone Chair. The Lords of the Iron Islands still have their household fleets. (The Captains and the Kings.) When Aegon gathers the GC and whatever local lords declare for him, there won`t really be anyone in a position to stop him from marching on King`s Landing. There is currently NO-ONE in the capital that is worth a damn to mount a defense.

[juanml82]

The Ironborn shouldn't be underestimated imo. Iron Fleet or no, they have made House Redwyne their inferiors before.

1. Saying GC needs lands is a little stretch with the whole "some contracts are writ in blood" line.

2. Without Iron fleet the Iron born still have more longships since significant amount of the Redwynes fleet is merchant ships. So dont count on an Iron born "mop up"

3. Margs getting aquitted is in no way "likely" with all the new plot developments (Varys comeback, Tyene, lunatic HS ect.)

The thing about the Ironborn is that the Iron Fleet is away. Longboats vs. War Galleys (which we should think the Redwyne Fleet has) is not even funny. If the Iron Fleet was there, then maybe we can count it as a forgone conclusion. But, as it stands, the best of the Redwynes will be fighting the scraps of the Ironborn.

I'm also not so sure about their "friends in the Reach". I mean, those passages are there for something, but so are the mentions of "words are wind". The GC hasn't been in Westeros for over a hundred years, and already fought a war against the Seven Kingdoms during Aegon V (the Ninepenny Kings War). Those "friends" weren't there back then, are they going to be there now?

I think they have a better chance, if they are able to release Edmure or the RW hostages, to get the Riverlands to their side by prompting a Tully restoration rather than counting on the grandchildren of people who might have been friendly to the GC by the time Ser Duncan the Tall was a squire.

Also don't forget that the Reach might not present such a united front. There are theories about possible betrayals from within the Tyrells bannermen. Admittedly, their is little to go on beyond one of the Golden Company's leaders (Lysono Maar?) saying that the Tyrells might not find their power in the Reach to be so secure and that they still have friends in the Reach. It's been noted before I believe that the Reach was staunch for the Targaryens. Something to consider even if it is mostly speculation right now.

About Margery, yes, she might be condemned. But if that happens, Mace Tyrell will order his army attack the Faith Militant. While that ought to help Aegon in the long run, in the more inmediate term, it means the Reach armies at KG are released and can be used to deal with the Golden Company.

The thing about the Hightowers is that they will have to deal with the Ironborn first. So, while they could conceivable turn on the Tyrells in exchange of becoming Lord Paramounts of the Reach, the Tyrells and the Golden Company would have clashed by then already. And the Tyrells outnumber the Golden Company.

There's an IMPORTANT factor people aren't considering:

- Lady Nym and Tyene will be IN King's Landing.

Now I'm guessing they'll take a retinue with them of perhaps a few hundred men, this could prove crucial if the GC march on KL since they'll have people on the inside who can open the gates. Now I'm just assuming its the GC by itself threatening KL but with the Dornish alliance. So if KL seals its gates the GC can just wait for Dorne to arrive then it's forces will be double the size. And if Tarly does declare for them, that's even more men surrounding KL.

However, my guess is that Mace Tyrell will march straight after Maegary is released (which should happen pretty fast) then the GC will repel them or beat them, taking captives in the process, then Dorne will link up with them for the assault on KL.

The even more important factor is Varys in KL. He can confuse any defense of the city easily. Aegon marching in from the south, Varys will tell them they need to send troops north. You think he's incapable of that?

The Stormlands have some pretty large houses that will obviously go over to him - the Cafferens, the Fells, the Grandisons, and the Lonmouths. There are plenty of houses known for their targ support in the Crownlands too. He can easily get another 10k from these smaller houses.

Yes, the Sand Snakes (and Varys) are probably Aegon's biggest asset, at least early on.

As long as Margeary or Tomen are alive, the Tyrells are tied to the Iron Throne by marriage, and Mace will defend it to the best of his ability. That being said, much of the Tyrell strength is tied up in the Riverlands, and the Ironborn are bleeding the Reach dry. Don`t count on the Redwyns being able to dominate the Ironborn at sea; The Iron Fleet may be gone, but those were only the ships tied directly to the Seastone Chair. The Lords of the Iron Islands still have their household fleets. (The Captains and the Kings.) When Aegon gathers the GC and whatever local lords declare for him, there won`t really be anyone in a position to stop him from marching on King`s Landing. There is currently NO-ONE in the capital that is worth a damn to mount a defense.

Tarly is at King's Landing. Actually, if Aegon was to attack King's Landing early on and doesn't have inside help, he's very likely to be defeated.

[PrimeRhaegar]

How can you call them overrated and we haven't seen what they and him can really do yet. Hell everyone thought robb was overrated and look what he did with fewer numbers too. Wait until TWOW to say if he is overrated or not

[juanml82]

How can you call them overrated and we haven't seen what they and him can really do yet. Hell everyone thought robb was overrated and look what he did with fewer numbers too. Wait until TWOW to say if he is overrated or not

Well, yes, in-universe you're right. I was thinking more about whether he is overrated or not in this forum when we speculate on TWOW.

In universe, he's definitely underestimated by the end of Kevan's POD.

Had decisive action been taken, Aegon might have not managed to take Storm's End

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Well, yes, in-universe you're right. I was thinking more about whether he is overrated or not in this forum when we speculate on TWOW.

In universe, he's definitely underestimated by the end of Kevan's POD.

Had decisive action been taken, Aegon might have not managed to take Storm's End

Which kind of decivise action? The time between the Golden Company landing (much less KL being informed) and Aegon attacking Storm's End would be barely enough for an army to march from KL to the border of the Stormlands, much less to SE. If it was ready to march at a day's notice at that.

[juanml82]

Which kind of decivise action? The time between the Golden Company landing (much less KL being informed) and Aegon attacking Storm's End would be barely enough for an army to march from KL to the border of the Stormlands, much less to SE. If it was ready to march at a day's notice at that.

(Rechecks map of Westeros) Yes, you're right, they couldn't have intercepted him on the road.

[grand old duke of stark]

'Spartan64Destiny' wrote:

I did not think much of Young Griff (Aegon) when he kicked the cavase or chess table in the air when Tyrion was trying to school the lad on the finer points of becoming a leader along with earning Daenerys's love and respect. He seemed like a spoiled sheltered brat to me during that moment.

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My thoughts exactly. Not only that, but he's still acting like a brat at a much more crucial time where his behaviour could win him allies and battles. IMO, fAegon has also started to treat JonCon shabbily, especially considering all he's done and sacrificed for him. If he pushes JonCon into inaction or indifference, this could make a huge difference. Aegon is overconfident and probably thinks he's a military genius, which he's not. I suspect that even as he starts to build Westerosi alliances, his Essos made alliances will start to fray on him.

Like several posters, I wish fAegon would be removed from the Game...but no so quickly that the time we've invested in him will seem to have been wasted.