Mathis Rowan and his role in the next book

[History of Westeros]

Why would Aerys doubt the loyalties of a seasoned commander who is serving under a lord paramount loyal to hm? He likely would not.

Because he's *paranoid*. The guy didn't trust his own barber.

[thewingedwolf]

The Tyrell bannerman have been quite loyal, but they may be faced with a situation that requires them to go a different route. There are three things to consider:

1. The Reach is under heavy attack from the ironmen. The Reach greatly outnumbers the ironborn, but must have Lord Redwyne's fleet to win the war. Garlan Tyrell and the Hightowers are preparing armies to meet with the Redwyne fleet and take the war to Euron.

On paper it looks like a forgone conclusion that the Reach will win this conflict. The Iron Fleet is down to less than half its strength and a half a world away in Essos. Without the Iron Fleet Euron has no hope of matching Lord Redwyne's 200 warships and 1000 support ships. The ironmen have many 100's of lesser longships built for raiding, not war.

However, Euron is a tactical genius if nothing else. He has those warlocks with him, and I foresee a Blackwater wildfire type of plan brewing. Should this be the case, the Reach will be seriously damaged. This may also be a signal to House Hightower that changes are necessary.

2. The Tyrell invasion force is more than likely on its way to defeat in the Stormlands. This will be a signal to all potential friends and allies to Aegon to must at Storm's End. This event may also place two of Mace Tyrells strongest bannerman in Aegon's control.

3. The Tyrells are the blood of Stewards, raised well above their station. Like the Florents, there are likely others who resent their dominion over the Reach, albeit secretly.

The lords of Reach may soon be in a situation that requires them to read the tea leaves and make a decision.

Those are all valid points and props to you for bringing them up. However I still see Dorne as a far likelier ally for Aegon which would make it far less likely to see any Lords of the Reach switching over to Aegon.

I guess time will tell.

Edit: Even if the Lords of the Reach suffer some form of defeat at the hands of the Golden Company or the Ironborn, that is in no way an indicator that anyone will switch sides. Robb Stark was never defeated and he was betrayed while the Lannisters were defeated a bunch of times in the field and managed to gain allies in the process. Remember that the Lords of the Reach have prospered greatly under the Tyrells and that cannot be underestimated.

[History of Westeros]

The Tyrell bannerman have been quite loyal, but they may be faced with a situation that requires them to go a different route. There are three things to consider:

1. The Reach is under heavy attack from the ironmen. The Reach greatly outnumbers the ironborn, but must have Lord Redwyne's fleet to win the war. Garlan Tyrell and the Hightowers are preparing armies to meet with the Redwyne fleet and take the war to Euron.

On paper it looks like a forgone conclusion that the Reach will win this conflict. The Iron Fleet is down to less than half its strength and a half a world away in Essos. Without the Iron Fleet Euron has no hope of matching Lord Redwyne's 200 warships and 1000 support ships. The ironmen have many 100's of lesser longships built for raiding, not war.

However, Euron is a tactical genius if nothing else. He has those warlocks with him, and I foresee a Blackwater wildfire type of plan brewing. Should this be the case, the Reach will be seriously damaged. This may also be a signal to House Hightower that changes are necessary.

2. The Tyrell invasion force is more than likely on its way to defeat in the Stormlands. This will be a signal to all potential friends and allies to Aegon to must at Storm's End. This event may also place two of Mace Tyrells strongest bannerman in Aegon's control.

3. The Tyrells are the blood of Stewards, raised well above their station. Like the Florents, there are likely others who resent their dominion over the Reach, albeit secretly.

The lords of Reach may soon be in a situation that requires them to read the tea leaves and make a decision.

I think this is an excellent summary, and makes irrelevant the post I was in the middle of typing.

[thewingedwolf]

I think this is an excellent summary, and makes irrelevant the post I was in the middle of typing.

Agreed. Well written and researched. However, I cannot help but disagree with it. That being said, we should not derail the OP's very good (and first) post. If we want to pick up this debate in a different thread, I will gladly do it as I sense this could be a very interesting discussion.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

As to the assertion that anyone who rebelled along with Daemon wouldn't be major houses now, in general of course that's true but the first BF rebellion was over 100 years ago so some of these houses have had a chance to become quite strong again. It's really easy for this to happen. All you need is a house that fought for the Blackfyres and were reduced, then fought for Robert (early on would work best of course) and got rewarded. A lot of power shifted hands at the end of Robert's Rebellion and certainly some of that benefited houses that sided with the Blackfyres.

House Yronwood was a major house that supported the Blackfyres and are still a major house, seemingly the #2 power in Dorne. House Reyne as well. It seems that they were still #2/#3 in the West when Tywin annihilated them.

1. There is no evidence of what you are asserting. Daeron the Good was a different king than Robert Baratheon, and we don't know how harsh he was to the supporters of Daemon. Baelor Breakspear, Daeron's son, heir, and later Hand, was in favor of pardoning the rebels. Since King Daeron's Hand, Lord Hayford, died and Baelor was named Hand right after the battle of the Redgrass field, I think its safe to say Baelor implemented his policy of issuing general pardons.

2. Aside from House Yronwood, there is no mention of any of the other truly great houses fully supporting Daemon. Its safe to assume his support came from a mass of smaller nobel houses.

3. We just don't know the circumstances of House Yronwood's support of Bittersteel. Perhaps they kept feet in both camps, like we have seen many times before. Perhaps the Martell were overly forgiving because of their need of house Yronwood's strength.

4. Please correct me if I am wrong, but I do not recall House Reyne supporting the Blackfyre rebellion. Please point me to this information in the books.

[thewingedwolf]

4. Please correct me if I am wrong, but I do not recall House Reyne supporting the Blackfyre rebellion. Please point me to this information in the books.

I never heard that either. I know that Ser Quentyn Ball killed Lord Lefford and defeated Damon Lannister outside of Lannisport but I never heard of House Reyne's support for the Blackfyres (which is unlikely since they are bannermen of the Lannisters)

[thewingedwolf]

4. Please correct me if I am wrong, but I do not recall House Reyne supporting the Blackfyre rebellion. Please point me to this information in the books.

I never heard that either. I know that Ser Quentyn Ball killed Lord Lefford and defeated Damon Lannister outside of Lannisport but I never heard of House Reyne's support for the Blackfyres (which is unlikely since they are bannermen of the Lannisters)

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Those are all valid points and props to you for bringing them up. However I still see Dorne as a far likelier ally for Aegon which would make it far less likely to see any Lords of the Reach switching over to Aegon.

I guess time will tell.

Edit: Even if the Lords of the Reach suffer some form of defeat at the hands of the Golden Company or the Ironborn, that is in no way an indicator that anyone will switch sides. Robb Stark was never defeated and he was betrayed while the Lannisters were defeated a bunch of times in the field and managed to gain allies in the process. Remember that the Lords of the Reach have prospered greatly under the Tyrells and that cannot be underestimated.

Agreed. Well written and researched. However, I cannot help but disagree with it. That being said, we should not derail the OP's very good (and first) post. If we want to pick up this debate in a different thread, I will gladly do it as I sense this could be a very interesting discussion.

I will make my final points on the subject to you and move all future discussion back to the OP's questions. Although, this is all related.

1. You act as if Dorne and the Reach have not worked together before. With the Targaryens as a unifying force, the Reach, Stormlands, and Dorne all worked as allies and served House Targayen faithfully. Why could this scenario not work again with House Targaryen at the top?

2. Has the Reach prospered due to Tyrell rule, or due to business going on as usual. The only thing that House Tyrell can be credited with is yielding Highgarden to Aegon I. The Tyrells were of course smart enough to intermarry with the older houses of the Reach, but being backed by the royal family surely brought them stability they would not have otherwise had.

This is a war that could take many different paths. The Lannisters are a spent force and Mace Tyrell is a well known incompetent. The stakes are just to high for the same status quo.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Because he's *paranoid*. The guy didn't trust his own barber.

Agreed, but barbers are close to his person. Lord Randyll is on the battlefield going about his king's business.

[thewingedwolf]

1. You act as if Dorne and the Reach have not worked together before. With the Targaryens as a unifying force, the Reach, Stormlands, and Dorne all worked as allies and served House Targayen faithfully. Why could this scenario not work again with House Targaryen at the top?

Not to beat up a dead horse here but when is it ever written that Dorne and the Reach worked together? Let's have a look at recent wars:

1. War of the Five Kings - Dorne is neutral, Tyrells ally with the Lannisters whom the Dornish despise for the murder of Elia and her children.

2. Greyjoy Rebellion - No mention of Dornish involvement

3. Robert's rebellion - The Tyrell lay siege to Storm's End while the Martells of Dorne are basically forced by the Mad King to send 10k men to help Rhaegar at the Trident (no working together there)

4. War of the Ninepenny Kings (last time before the War of the Five Kings where the wardenships were activated). Possible collaboration although not mentioned.

The rivalry between The Reach and Dorne goes far and deep and I don't think it should be underestimated. OK I am done also. Back to the OP.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

The hatred between Highgarden and Dornes is largely just Tyrell and Martell over what happened to Willas.

[thewingedwolf]

The hatred between Highgarden and Dornes is largely just Tyrell and Martell over what happened to Willas.

The rivalry between the Reach and Dornish house go far deeper than just the Tyrells and and Martells. House Oakheart of the Reach for instance, has been fighting with the Dornishmen for centuries. I was very careful in my writing to use Reach and Dorne for a reason.

[History of Westeros]

1. There is no evidence of what you are asserting. Daeron the Good was a different king than Robert Baratheon, and we don't know how harsh he was to the supporters of Daemon. Baelor Breakspear, Daeron's son, heir, and later Hand, was in favor of pardoning the rebels. Since King Daeron's Hand, Lord Hayford, died and Baelor was named Hand right after the battle of the Redgrass field, I think its safe to say Baelor implemented his policy of issuing general pardons.

4. Please correct me if I am wrong, but I do not recall House Reyne supporting the Blackfyre rebellion. Please point me to this information in the books.

1. The type of assertion I made doesn't require evidence, it is based on deduction. Furthermore, how can you argue both that "if major Houses supported Daemon they wouldn't be major" AND that the rebels were dealt with leniently? That seems to be a contradiction.

4. Robb Reyne was one of the heroes of the rebellion mentioned by Lord Osgrey. Sure, this is not a certainty that all of House Reyne supported Daemon but it makes it a strong consideration if not likely.

[History of Westeros]

Agreed, but barbers are close to his person. Lord Randyll is on the battlefield going about his king's business.

The barber thing is not proof of his paranoia, it was merely an example I chose out of a litany of possibilities. It is not arguable that Aerys was paranoid thus it is not a stretch at all for his bannermen/vassals/etc to be concerned that their loyalty might be questioned.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Not to beat up a dead horse here but when is it ever written that Dorne and the Reach worked together? Let's have a look at recent wars:

1. War of the Five Kings - Dorne is neutral, Tyrells ally with the Lannisters whom the Dornish despise for the murder of Elia and her children.

2. Greyjoy Rebellion - No mention of Dornish involvement

3. Robert's rebellion - The Tyrell lay siege to Storm's End while the Martells of Dorne are basically forced by the Mad King to send 10k men to help Rhaegar at the Trident (no working together there)

4. War of the Ninepenny Kings (last time before the War of the Five Kings where the wardenships were activated). Possible collaboration although not mentioned.

The rivalry between The Reach and Dorne goes far and deep and I don't think it should be underestimated. OK I am done also. Back to the OP.

You missed my point. They were united under House Targaryen for years. All of your points are mainly post-Targaryen rule. Robert's Rebellion put them on the same side. Dorne would have likely helped anyway because of Elia and her children.

I'm quite sure Dorne and the Reach were allies in the War of the Ninepenny Kings. Aegon, Dany, or Jon could again be that unifying force.

[thewingedwolf]

The barber thing is not proof of his paranoia, it was merely an example I chose out of a litany of possibilities. It is not arguable that Aerys was paranoid thus it is not a stretch at all for his bannermen/vassals/etc to be concerned that their loyalty might be questioned.

On this I agree wihth you. There is ample proof of Aerys's paranoia, especially after the defiance at Duskendale.

[thewingedwolf]

You missed my point. They were united under House Targaryen for years. All of your points are mainly post-Targaryen rule. Robert's Rebellion put them on the same side. Dorne would have likely helped anyway because of Elia and her children.

I'm quite sure Dorne and the Reach were allies in the War of the Ninepenny Kings. Aegon, Dany, or Jon could again be that unifying force.

You and I have a very different definition of "Unity". There are many examples of lesser Houses of the Reach fighting with those of Dorne (the Oakhearts, amongst others). If Aegon marries Ariane, this could actually, in my opinion, have the opposite effect and galvanize the houses of the Reach against him. But this is getting way speculative.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

1. The type of assertion I made doesn't require evidence, it is based on deduction. Furthermore, how can you argue both that "if major Houses supported Daemon they wouldn't be major" AND that the rebels were dealt with leniently? That seems to be a contradiction.

4. Robb Reyne was one of the heroes of the rebellion mentioned by Lord Osgrey. Sure, this is not a certainty that all of House Reyne supported Daemon but it makes it a strong consideration if not likely.

1. All assertion require evidence, or they result in mere speculation, which I will go ahead and classify your deduction. I stand by my previous argument wholeheartedly. Aside from House Yronwood, you cannot give name another truly great house that fully supported Daemon. If they did, they more than likely protected themselves by keeping a foot in both camps.

I'm only relaying to you what the books and GRRM relayed to me. Baelor Breakspear promoted a policy of leniency to the rebels. No contradiction here my friend..

2. Not really. Its safe to say he was not the Lord of House Reyne or its heir. House Lannister would have surely used a Reyne Rebellion to capture their lands and castles.

[thewingedwolf]

1. Other than Taena's inside information against Cersei, Orton Merryweather can provide no help. His family lands and strength were greatly reduced by Aerys.

2. Ser Kevan Lannister describes Lord Randyll as a narrow man, but shrewd, and above all else loyal. I tend to agree with this. I think its likely he was against bending the knee to Robert Baratheon.

3. As I stated before, the Hightowers are as wealthy as the Lannisters and can field a huge army all on their own. The threat from Euron is somewhat overstated. The Iron Fleet is greatly diminished and whats left of it is half a world away. That leaves Euron with mostly longships made for raiding. If the ironmen made it inside Oldtown they could do some damage, but never conquer or hold the city.

Additionally, Garlan and his army are on the way to Oldtown to meet up with Hightower troops and the Redwyne fleet. As usual, I don't expect the Higtowers will send many men, leaving them with plenty to aid Aegon should they choose to do so.

4. Rhaegar and Aerys were the leader/symbols for the Targaryen dynasty. Rhaegar's children were also dead. With Tywin in the fold, the rebels had five of the great houses and momentum. Dorne already had 10,000 men, a and two King's Guard destroyed during the war. There is loyalty and then blind loyalty. The Tyrells fought to the end, but the circumstances were too tough. Viserys was a child and too much like his father. Dany was a newborn.

5. This idea of a greyscale epidemic does not compute. Greyscale is not uncommon to the Seven Kingdom's (see Shireen). Connington does as instructed and keeps himself covered and clean. The disease is spread through contact, it is not airborne.

I agree with your points #3 and #5.

Howver I have to disagree with the statement in point #4 namely that the Tyrells fought until the end. The Tyrells dipped their banners and bent the knee without so much as resisting when Ned Stark came to lift the siege of Storm's End. They fought in one battle, at Ashford and then basically sat outside of Storm's End until someone came and told them to do otherwise.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

The barber thing is not proof of his paranoia, it was merely an example I chose out of a litany of possibilities. It is not arguable that Aerys was paranoid thus it is not a stretch at all for his bannermen/vassals/etc to be concerned that their loyalty might be questioned.

No one has or is arguing Aerys' paranoia. The argument concerns Randyll Tarly's motivation for sending Aerys the head of Lord Caffern. Despite his condition, Aerys had the good sense to not trouble his troops in the field.

The punishment came to the Hands who failed and the Starks and their companions. It would make sense for fearful troops to abandon a mad king and turn to the rebels. However, half the realm remained loyal and fought bravely for Aerys. Pre-Duskendale, Aerys was charming, well liked, and showed great promise.